Super League Betting: Rhinos to rumble past Warrington

Super League / Stuart Jones / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Kevin Sinfield be saluting the faithful after full time at Headingley

"Leeds are going well, but they will need to be at their best to overcome a quality Warrington side. The Rhinos bombed several chances out wide at Cas, with Hardaker and Webb butchering several overlaps on the left channel. The margin for error won’t be so great this week."

The Super League gets ever more super with a top of the table clash between Leeds and Warrington to whet the whistle on Friday evening. Stuart Jones previews that big clash as well as Hull KR's home fixture with Bradford in his weekly betting preview

Defending champions Leeds Rhinos entertain league leaders Warrington at Headingley on Friday evening and the layers are understandably finding it very difficult to split the two sides.

Leeds have gone unbeaten since losing to Wigan in the week before the World Club Challenge and, though Castleford briefly looked like making a game of it last week, the Rhinos never truly looked like losing their lead.

Not for the first time, Brian McDermott's men were guilty of overplaying having gone 18 points up early on. Had Chris Clarkson and Carl Ablett not combined to bomb a certain try after Kallum Watkin's breakaway effort, it would have been 24-0 and the game would have been over much earlier.

Leeds are going well, but they will need to be at their best to overcome a quality Warrington side. The Rhinos bombed several chances out wide at Cas, with Hardaker and Webb butchering several overlaps on the left channel. The margin for error won't be so great this week.

Chris Bridge misses the game through suspension, but it's again testament to the strength in depth that Tony Smith has developed in his squad that he can choose between two exciting prospects in Stefan Ratchford and Rhys Evans to cover in the centres.

Warrington may have failed to impress against Bradford last week but it was more a case of Wire just going through the motions as opposed to an alarming dip in form. An improved effort from Bradford combined with an early injury to Lee Briers ensuring that Warrington never pulled away.

In the absence of Michael Monaghan, it seems hard to justify Warrington being a shade of odds on away from home, and in front of a packed Headingley Stadium Leeds look the call in receipt of a two-and-a-half point start.

Hull KR have started the season well and they look to continue their good form against Bradford at Craven Park on Saturday evening.

Kr held St Helens to a 36-36 draw at home earlier in the season and kept a clean sheet against bottom of the table Widnes last weekend. Constantine Mika has been one of the key players for Hull this season and he is amongst this week's 19-man squad having missed the latest round through suspension. In the absence of Blake Green, the form of Craig Hall at stand off has been key and he has chipped in with three tries this season.

Bradford produced one of their best performances of the season last week, but have subsequently been hit by a number of injuries, with Elliott Kear, Craig Kopczack and Ian Sibbit joining Luke Gale, Chev Walker, James Donaldson, Adrian Purtell and Olivier Elima on the sidelines. The loss of Kopczack is a big blow to forwards, whilst Kear has impressed defensively I an area where Bradford were particularly weak last term.

I expect that injury list and a big effort against Warrington to take its toll on the Bulls and am happy to side with Hull KR giving up a ten point start.

Recommended Bets
Back Leeds +2.5 points @ [1.91]
Back Hull KR -10.5 points @ [1.91]

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Sand Stormers: The Rumble In The Jungle (part 2)

Paul Smith / Paul Smith / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jungle Bay can make amends for an unlucky defeat this weekend

"That said, he [Jungle Bay] is a well-handicapped horse and connections will be keen to get him qualified for the Blue Square Sprint Series final, so he has to be worth another chance."

Paul Smith is hoping that Jungle Bay can atone for an unlucky defeat at Lingfield this weekend.

The stage was set. Money had come for Jungle Bay from a stable where a bit of market support is always a positive. Andrew Heffernan had him nicely settled in rear. All was going swimmingly until James Doyle was unshipped from Perfect Ch'I. In the ensuing drama, Jungle Bay was hampered, forced wide and, as a result, kicked for home sooner than ideal. In the end, there was an inevitability about Rubenstar picking up the pieces and Jungle Bay's supporters were left to rue what might have been with a clear run.

Trying to put a positive slant on it, he did at least show he was ready to strike and he can surely gain compensation. On the downside, the cat is well and truly out of the bag and there may not be any fancy prices about if he takes up his engagement at Lingfield on Saturday. That said, he is a well-handicapped horse and connections will be keen to get him qualified for the Blue Square Sprint Series final, so he has to be worth another chance.

There was further emotional turmoil on Monday when the only other list entrant engaged - Arco Felice - lined up in a humdrum Wolverhampton maiden. I had a low-grade handicap pencilled in for him after this run, so it was disconcerting to see the money start to come for him. 14/1, 12/1, 10/1.....all the way into 4/1 at the off. This wasn't in the script.

Having been declared to run in a tongue-tie, there was some confusion at the start before it came to light that he wouldn't be wearing it. Trainer Keith Goldsworthy seemed unamused, trying to get the horse withdrawn, but he ended up running and never looked entirely comfortable, on and off the bridle throughout.

He shouldn't get too stiff a mark as a result and the money that came for him would strongly suggest that someone somewhere thinks he is better than he is shown. The downside is that there will be a few more people looking out for him next time. He is entered in a maiden on Monday (Wolverhampton) but hopefully he will be saved for a handicap.

The two new additions this week both came from Lingfield's meeting last Wednesday and Grande Caiman and Dubburg look worth following in the near future.

The case for the former rests on him having plummeted down the weights since joining his new stable. He had two runs on Fibresand, which clearly didn't suit him, prior to being switched to his optimum conditions. He wasn't given a hard time in the closing stages, running on to the line in a manner that suggested there was still sufficient ability there to win a similar race. 12f+ on Polytrack is his bag.

Dubburg has been running well all winter and he caught the eye once more, badly hampered at a crucial stage on his first start over 2m. He didn't look to have any problems with the trip though and he looks a progressive stayer in a division that is not that strongly contested.

As well as Arco Felice and Jungle Bay, there are also entries for Benhego (Kempton 19.10, Thursday), Green Apple (Wolverhampton, Friday) and Hold On Tiger (Wolverhampton, Monday).

Benhego has been beaten off this mark on both runs this winter, but he looks to have retained all his ability. He wouldn't want a crawl, but there are a couple of potential leaders and he looks worth an interest.

Hold On Tiger went on to the list on the back of a run at Southwell, so he is swerved now switched to Polytrack (14.10 Wolverhampton), which leaves Green Apple (18.10 Wolverhampton, Friday).

Peter Makin's filly was very green on her debut here in October, but it was a run chock full of promise and she will be hard to beat with that run under her belt.

Sand Stormers NAP Jungle Bay (15.05 Lingfield, Saturday)

Full list of horses to follow
Arco Felice (bred to be good and some promise (24/1))
Benhego (unsuited by steady pace (19/1), well treated now
Cossack Prince (down in the weights and travelled well (20/1)
Curtains (travelled really well before finding trouble (26/11))
Decency (travelled strongly on tough terms (6/12), can win soon)
Dubburg (badly hampered (2/2), still progressing)
Grande Caiman (travelled well (2/2) and not knocked about)
Green Apple (hugely promising debut, more to come)
Hold On Tiger (raced against stands' rail (10/12)
Investment World (needs more of a test of stamina)
Jezza (impressive on Fibresand debut, stays well)
Jungle Bay (more encouragement off tumbling mark (22/1)
Lost In Paris (not ideally drawn at Southwell (5/11) and still went close)
Ray Of Joy (ran well from bad draw over inadequate trip (12/1)
Red Avalanche (change of stable could revive)
Sammy Alexander (promise hugging the far rail at Lingfield (28/10)
Stoppers (promising debut for new yard (27/1), should do better)
The Cayterers (made move too soon in steadily run race (29/1))
Zeavola (switched inside on nursery debut (7/12), more to come)

All the market moves ahead of today's racing at Kempton...

Paul Smith is hoping that Jungle Bay can atone for an unlucky defeat at Lingfield this weekend....

Welcome to Follow The Money where our three selections come from Carlisle and Lingfield....

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