Sand Stormers: Chambles to capitalise on drop in class

Sand Stormers / Paul Smith / 25 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lingfield is the venue for Paul's best bet of the week.

"There was an interview with David Evans shown on ATR in the week where he made reference to the fact that Steelcut doesn’t like Lingfield. I am more than happy to accept the trainer’s verdict in this instance......"

After a disappointing series of results last week, Paul Smith has a strong fancy at Lingfield on Friday

In the couple of years that this column has been going, I can't recall a day as bad/frustrating (delete as applicable) as Saturday.

If the highlighted horses run badly with no excuses, it's easy enough to get rid of them and put it down as a bad job. Having watched both divisions of the Blue Square Series again on Wednesday morning, that is exactly what is going to happen to Picansort.
He did race around the inside but that was two bad runs in a row and if he wins next time, he can do it unbacked.

Steelcut wasn't much more promising, but he was on the part of the track furthest away from where the action unfolded and isn't as bad as the result looks.

There was an interview with David Evans shown on ATR in the week where he made reference to the fact that Steelcut doesn't like Lingfield. I am more than happy to accept the trainer's verdict in this instance - even though he duped me with that good run on his penultimate start - and he gets one more chance in the claimer at Wolverhampton on Friday (16.40).

It's obvious that he doesn't have outstanding claims at the weights, but there are question marks over Ebraam at the moment and Lucky Art is unlikely to be able to dominate. In fact, this has all the hallmarks of a real burn-up early on and perhaps Steelcut can pick the pieces up late on. If all eight stand their ground, he could be worth an each-way investment.

Showboating was put up as the nap last week and there was a real sense of disappointment as he passed the line. If he had run lamentably then so be it, but having been steered from stall 11 to the inside rail, he was always going to struggle and actually ran respectably.

It would be harsh to get rid of him when he shaped as though still in form and he is persevered with - presumably we will see him in another Blue Square qualifier when eligible.

Having recovered from Saturday's malaise, it was time for another trio of low blows on Tuesday. Even Stevens couldn't retain his unbeaten record over 5f at Southwell - he doesn't owe us anything and with no more suitable opportunities for him at the track this winter, he is sent on his way with a gold star on his report card.

Bond Fastrac ran another creditable race in defeat in a race won by a red-hot rival. He is still up to winning off this mark but it might need to come in a race full of exposed sprinters. Those opportunities do still crop up at this time of year though and he can have his day yet.

The cruellest blow was delivered by George Guru, who looked to have a competitive 1m handicap at Kempton in the bag when he took up the running close home. I suppose the poor souls who backed him at 1.2 in running felt worse than me, but there wouldn't have been much in it as Jim Crowley urged Maverik back in front on the line.

He was a touch keen in the early stages and might be worth dropping back to 7f, but he looks a really likable handicapper in an underrated stable and should gain compensation.

Anyway, enough of last week's travails - time to get back on the bike and hopefully hit the target this week.

Chambles ran well in stronger company at Kempton last time and she looks to have sound claims in the 7f handicap at Lingfield on Friday (14.20). There won't be anything of Pearl Rebel's ability in this line up, she has a good draw and Jim Crowley is as good as anyone out there.

I liked the way she kept to her task both when winning at Wolverhampton and when coming from a long way back last time, and she gets the dreaded nap selection.

Clear Praise goes in the 6f handicap at Kempton on Thursday (19.05) and these are his optimum conditions. His reappearance effort saw him make up plenty of ground before the combination of those exertions and the lack of match practice took their toll close home. His latest run is easy to swerve (too keen over 7f) and he can win off 80.

The direct debit on Kames Park will kick in half an hour earlier (Kempton 18.35) and with Kidlat and Rocky Rebel in the field, this might not be a dawdle. Double-figure odds do help alleviate the worries with him with regards the complexion of the race.

Sand Stormers NAP
Chambles 14.20 Lingfield, Friday

LIST OF HORSES TO FOLLOW
Aiaam Al Wafa (likely big improver when switched to handicaps (27/10))
Adorable Choice (underrated filly who did well to last as long as she did at Newbury (21/10))
Bond Fastrac (still well handicapped on old form and good second at Nottingham (11/10))
Chambles (going the right way and latest third (12/1) better than it looks)
Clear Praise (promising return from a break (8/12))
Flag Of Glory (shaped nicely on first run for Peter Hiatt (27/10); can do better)
Forever's Girl (best of those held up (10/11), return to 6f, Polytrack a plus)
George Guru (lightly raced and still on the up; poor draw (2/11))
Glastonberry (stuck to the inside (7/1) and still open to improvement)
Global Village (did well to make up as much ground as he did (2/1))
Greek Islands (looked worth upping in trip (12/10))
Incomparable (looks ready to strike when dropped back to 5f)
Intransigent (related to smart AW performer and promise on debut (10/10))
Kames Park (no chance the way he was ridden in slowly run race (12/10))
La Capriosa (forced an overly strong pace over the wrong trip (8/1))
Priestley's Reward (ran best race so far when second on All Weather debut (22/10))
Showboating (good effort in slowly run race (14/1))
Steelcut (best of those held up at Lingfield (7/1))
Wrapped Up (no chance from a wide draw last time (18/11); still unexposed)

It has been a quiet week on the all-weather but Paul Smith has found a couple more horses to follow in the latest edition of Sand Stormers....

A disappointing reverse last weekend but Paul Smith has one lined up for Southwell on Thursday in the latest instalment of his All Weather column....

After an untimely technology-based absence, Paul Smith returns with a look at the action on the All Weather....

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Sand Stormers: Chambles one for next time

Sand Stormers / Paul Smith / 18 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lingfield is the venue for Paul's best bet of the week.

"she [Chambles] made good headway in the closing stages and didn’t lose much ground on Pearl Rebel in the straight. That rival is potentially very useful and she did comfortably better than the others that were held up in the race...."

It has been a quiet week on the all-weather but Paul Smith has found a couple more horses to follow in the latest edition of Sand Stormers.

Although there has been the usual amount of aal-weather action in the last week, it has had a very low-key feel to it with some uncompetitive fare on offer.

Incomparable missing his intended run last week was frustrating as although it wasn't a straightforward task by any stretch, it was at least under his optimum conditions.

It might not have been the most exciting week's racing ever but there were still a couple of performances that were noteworthy and both Chambles and Showboating are worth keeping on the right side of.

Chambles has made steady improvement in her five runs, making a successful nursery debut and then running a cracker when third to Pearl Rebel at Kempton last week.

Held up a long way off the pace, she made good headway in the closing stages and didn't lose much ground on Pearl Rebel in the straight. That rival is potentially very useful and she did comfortably better than the others that were held up in the race.

She is only rated 64 so is eligible for weaker events than that 0-75 event and it will be disappointing if she can't be placed to good effect in the coming weeks, be it over 7f, or even stepped up to 1m.

The case for Showboating is fairly straightforward - he finished very strongly in a race in which nothing else got into it from behind and the fact he was forced out very wide adds to the merit of the effort.

A strike-rate of 1-20 will put some off but he is clearly fully effective on Polytrack and this mark is clearly within his range. He is unlikely to find too many 6f races run at such a leisurely tempo and a more truly run event can see him oblige.

He's got an entry in round three of the Blue Square series on Saturday and although last week's effort won't have gone unnoticed by the layers, he has to be respected.

The first couple of weeks of the Blue Square series have seen the races divide and hopefully that will be the case this week as Picansort and Steelcut are also entered.

Obviously they can't all win but all three are primed to strike - perhaps Picansort has the most to prove after his lesser effort last time.

Aiaam Al Wafa lines up at Lingfield on Wednesday (13:55) but she ran deplorably last time and the return to maiden company doesn't look the answer - a respectable effort would at least offer some encouragement ahead of a return to handicaps.

Kames Park continues to run well and he is persevered with in the hope that a race will be run to suit him at some stage. He is entered at Wolverhampton on Monday (15.30) in a race which doesn't look too bad at the five-day stage.

Sand Stormers NAP
Showboating 14:25 Lingfield, Saturday

LIST OF HORSES TO FOLLOW
Aiaam Al Wafa (likely big improver when switched to handicaps (27/10))
Adorable Choice (underrated filly who did well to last as long as she did at Newbury (21/10))
Bond Fastrac (still well handicapped on old form and good second at Nottingham (11/10))
Chambles (going the right way and latest third (12/1) better than it looks)
Clear Praise (promising return from a break (8/12))
Even Stevens (looked Fibresand monster (22/3))
Flag Of Glory (shaped nicely on first run for Peter Hiatt (27/10); can do better)
Forever's Girl (best of those held up (10/11), return to 6f, Polytrack a plus)
George Guru (lightly raced and still on the up; poor draw (2/11))
Glastonberry (stuck to the inside (7/1) and still open to improvement)
Global Village (did well to make up as much ground as he did (2/1))
Greek Islands (looked worth upping in trip (12/10))
Incomparable (looks ready to strike when dropped back to 5f)
Intransigent (related to smart AW performer and promise on debut (10/10))
Kames Park (no chance the way he was ridden in slowly run race (12/10))
La Capriosa (forced an overly strong pace over the wrong trip (8/1))
Picansort (met trouble in running at a crucial stage on reappearance (17/12))
Priestley's Reward (ran best race so far when second on All Weather debut (22/10))
Showboating (good effort in slowly run race (14/1))
Steelcut (best of those held up at Lingfield (7/1))
Wrapped Up (no chance from a wide draw last time (18/11); still unexposed)

A disappointing reverse last weekend but Paul Smith has one lined up for Southwell on Thursday in the latest instalment of his All Weather column....

After an untimely technology-based absence, Paul Smith returns with a look at the action on the All Weather....

Paul Smith is hoping for a better week after a frustrating series of results in the last seven days....

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Follow The Money: Saturday stormers!

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 12 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Are you following the money?

"Singapore Storm's previous form is pretty poor however the money suggests he’s been well enough treated to go much closer today."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Sandown and Chepstow.

The day's first move comes from Sandown in the 14:25 3m Handicap Chase where the Ruby Walsh ridden Paul Nicholls-trained Mon Parrain has drifted from an early [3.2] out to [4.4]. Unraced for 266 days, when he was last seen at Auteuil finishing third over 2m4f, this will be the furthest he's run. Nicholls usually does well with this type of horse however the money suggests the earlier price was too short and the layers are trying to get him beat with one or two other interesting options in the race.

For our final two movers we head over to Chepstow. First up in the 14:35 3m Handicap Chase Jayjay Valentine has been backed in from [11.5] into [6.0]. Initially it's difficult to see why the Victor Dartnall horse has been backed having not showed much in his previous four runs, however prior to that he had a hat-trick in points last spring. Add to that the firmer ground, a return to a more suitable 3m's and Ed Glassonbury claiming six on his back the early trade suggests the now joint favourite is ready to win under rules.

Finally, Singapore Storm has been backed from an adjusted [6.9] into [4.2] in the 16:15 2m Novice Handicap Hurdle. A number of these are having their first run in a handicap and Tom George's mount looks to be well off. The in-form stable also have Sam Twiston-Davies on board taking off an extra 3lbs. His previous form is pretty poor however the money suggests he's been well enough treated to go much closer today.

Recommended Bets;
Lay Mon Parrain @ [4.4] Sandown 14:25
Back Jayjay Valentine @ [6] Chepstow 14:35
Back Singapore Storm @ [4.2] Chepstow 16:15

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Sandown and Chepstow....

Today's Follow The Money movers are all in action at Wincanton....

Today's Follow The Money comes from Carlisle and Folkestone......

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Sand Stormers: The Rumble In The Jungle (part 2)

Paul Smith / Paul Smith / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jungle Bay can make amends for an unlucky defeat this weekend

"That said, he [Jungle Bay] is a well-handicapped horse and connections will be keen to get him qualified for the Blue Square Sprint Series final, so he has to be worth another chance."

Paul Smith is hoping that Jungle Bay can atone for an unlucky defeat at Lingfield this weekend.

The stage was set. Money had come for Jungle Bay from a stable where a bit of market support is always a positive. Andrew Heffernan had him nicely settled in rear. All was going swimmingly until James Doyle was unshipped from Perfect Ch'I. In the ensuing drama, Jungle Bay was hampered, forced wide and, as a result, kicked for home sooner than ideal. In the end, there was an inevitability about Rubenstar picking up the pieces and Jungle Bay's supporters were left to rue what might have been with a clear run.

Trying to put a positive slant on it, he did at least show he was ready to strike and he can surely gain compensation. On the downside, the cat is well and truly out of the bag and there may not be any fancy prices about if he takes up his engagement at Lingfield on Saturday. That said, he is a well-handicapped horse and connections will be keen to get him qualified for the Blue Square Sprint Series final, so he has to be worth another chance.

There was further emotional turmoil on Monday when the only other list entrant engaged - Arco Felice - lined up in a humdrum Wolverhampton maiden. I had a low-grade handicap pencilled in for him after this run, so it was disconcerting to see the money start to come for him. 14/1, 12/1, 10/1.....all the way into 4/1 at the off. This wasn't in the script.

Having been declared to run in a tongue-tie, there was some confusion at the start before it came to light that he wouldn't be wearing it. Trainer Keith Goldsworthy seemed unamused, trying to get the horse withdrawn, but he ended up running and never looked entirely comfortable, on and off the bridle throughout.

He shouldn't get too stiff a mark as a result and the money that came for him would strongly suggest that someone somewhere thinks he is better than he is shown. The downside is that there will be a few more people looking out for him next time. He is entered in a maiden on Monday (Wolverhampton) but hopefully he will be saved for a handicap.

The two new additions this week both came from Lingfield's meeting last Wednesday and Grande Caiman and Dubburg look worth following in the near future.

The case for the former rests on him having plummeted down the weights since joining his new stable. He had two runs on Fibresand, which clearly didn't suit him, prior to being switched to his optimum conditions. He wasn't given a hard time in the closing stages, running on to the line in a manner that suggested there was still sufficient ability there to win a similar race. 12f+ on Polytrack is his bag.

Dubburg has been running well all winter and he caught the eye once more, badly hampered at a crucial stage on his first start over 2m. He didn't look to have any problems with the trip though and he looks a progressive stayer in a division that is not that strongly contested.

As well as Arco Felice and Jungle Bay, there are also entries for Benhego (Kempton 19.10, Thursday), Green Apple (Wolverhampton, Friday) and Hold On Tiger (Wolverhampton, Monday).

Benhego has been beaten off this mark on both runs this winter, but he looks to have retained all his ability. He wouldn't want a crawl, but there are a couple of potential leaders and he looks worth an interest.

Hold On Tiger went on to the list on the back of a run at Southwell, so he is swerved now switched to Polytrack (14.10 Wolverhampton), which leaves Green Apple (18.10 Wolverhampton, Friday).

Peter Makin's filly was very green on her debut here in October, but it was a run chock full of promise and she will be hard to beat with that run under her belt.

Sand Stormers NAP Jungle Bay (15.05 Lingfield, Saturday)

Full list of horses to follow
Arco Felice (bred to be good and some promise (24/1))
Benhego (unsuited by steady pace (19/1), well treated now
Cossack Prince (down in the weights and travelled well (20/1)
Curtains (travelled really well before finding trouble (26/11))
Decency (travelled strongly on tough terms (6/12), can win soon)
Dubburg (badly hampered (2/2), still progressing)
Grande Caiman (travelled well (2/2) and not knocked about)
Green Apple (hugely promising debut, more to come)
Hold On Tiger (raced against stands' rail (10/12)
Investment World (needs more of a test of stamina)
Jezza (impressive on Fibresand debut, stays well)
Jungle Bay (more encouragement off tumbling mark (22/1)
Lost In Paris (not ideally drawn at Southwell (5/11) and still went close)
Ray Of Joy (ran well from bad draw over inadequate trip (12/1)
Red Avalanche (change of stable could revive)
Sammy Alexander (promise hugging the far rail at Lingfield (28/10)
Stoppers (promising debut for new yard (27/1), should do better)
The Cayterers (made move too soon in steadily run race (29/1))
Zeavola (switched inside on nursery debut (7/12), more to come)

All the market moves ahead of today's racing at Kempton...

Paul Smith is hoping that Jungle Bay can atone for an unlucky defeat at Lingfield this weekend....

Welcome to Follow The Money where our three selections come from Carlisle and Lingfield....

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