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Sand Stormers: Chambles to capitalise on drop in class

Sand Stormers / Paul Smith / 25 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lingfield is the venue for Paul's best bet of the week.

"There was an interview with David Evans shown on ATR in the week where he made reference to the fact that Steelcut doesn’t like Lingfield. I am more than happy to accept the trainer’s verdict in this instance......"

After a disappointing series of results last week, Paul Smith has a strong fancy at Lingfield on Friday

In the couple of years that this column has been going, I can't recall a day as bad/frustrating (delete as applicable) as Saturday.

If the highlighted horses run badly with no excuses, it's easy enough to get rid of them and put it down as a bad job. Having watched both divisions of the Blue Square Series again on Wednesday morning, that is exactly what is going to happen to Picansort.
He did race around the inside but that was two bad runs in a row and if he wins next time, he can do it unbacked.

Steelcut wasn't much more promising, but he was on the part of the track furthest away from where the action unfolded and isn't as bad as the result looks.

There was an interview with David Evans shown on ATR in the week where he made reference to the fact that Steelcut doesn't like Lingfield. I am more than happy to accept the trainer's verdict in this instance - even though he duped me with that good run on his penultimate start - and he gets one more chance in the claimer at Wolverhampton on Friday (16.40).

It's obvious that he doesn't have outstanding claims at the weights, but there are question marks over Ebraam at the moment and Lucky Art is unlikely to be able to dominate. In fact, this has all the hallmarks of a real burn-up early on and perhaps Steelcut can pick the pieces up late on. If all eight stand their ground, he could be worth an each-way investment.

Showboating was put up as the nap last week and there was a real sense of disappointment as he passed the line. If he had run lamentably then so be it, but having been steered from stall 11 to the inside rail, he was always going to struggle and actually ran respectably.

It would be harsh to get rid of him when he shaped as though still in form and he is persevered with - presumably we will see him in another Blue Square qualifier when eligible.

Having recovered from Saturday's malaise, it was time for another trio of low blows on Tuesday. Even Stevens couldn't retain his unbeaten record over 5f at Southwell - he doesn't owe us anything and with no more suitable opportunities for him at the track this winter, he is sent on his way with a gold star on his report card.

Bond Fastrac ran another creditable race in defeat in a race won by a red-hot rival. He is still up to winning off this mark but it might need to come in a race full of exposed sprinters. Those opportunities do still crop up at this time of year though and he can have his day yet.

The cruellest blow was delivered by George Guru, who looked to have a competitive 1m handicap at Kempton in the bag when he took up the running close home. I suppose the poor souls who backed him at 1.2 in running felt worse than me, but there wouldn't have been much in it as Jim Crowley urged Maverik back in front on the line.

He was a touch keen in the early stages and might be worth dropping back to 7f, but he looks a really likable handicapper in an underrated stable and should gain compensation.

Anyway, enough of last week's travails - time to get back on the bike and hopefully hit the target this week.

Chambles ran well in stronger company at Kempton last time and she looks to have sound claims in the 7f handicap at Lingfield on Friday (14.20). There won't be anything of Pearl Rebel's ability in this line up, she has a good draw and Jim Crowley is as good as anyone out there.

I liked the way she kept to her task both when winning at Wolverhampton and when coming from a long way back last time, and she gets the dreaded nap selection.

Clear Praise goes in the 6f handicap at Kempton on Thursday (19.05) and these are his optimum conditions. His reappearance effort saw him make up plenty of ground before the combination of those exertions and the lack of match practice took their toll close home. His latest run is easy to swerve (too keen over 7f) and he can win off 80.

The direct debit on Kames Park will kick in half an hour earlier (Kempton 18.35) and with Kidlat and Rocky Rebel in the field, this might not be a dawdle. Double-figure odds do help alleviate the worries with him with regards the complexion of the race.

Sand Stormers NAP
Chambles 14.20 Lingfield, Friday

LIST OF HORSES TO FOLLOW
Aiaam Al Wafa (likely big improver when switched to handicaps (27/10))
Adorable Choice (underrated filly who did well to last as long as she did at Newbury (21/10))
Bond Fastrac (still well handicapped on old form and good second at Nottingham (11/10))
Chambles (going the right way and latest third (12/1) better than it looks)
Clear Praise (promising return from a break (8/12))
Flag Of Glory (shaped nicely on first run for Peter Hiatt (27/10); can do better)
Forever's Girl (best of those held up (10/11), return to 6f, Polytrack a plus)
George Guru (lightly raced and still on the up; poor draw (2/11))
Glastonberry (stuck to the inside (7/1) and still open to improvement)
Global Village (did well to make up as much ground as he did (2/1))
Greek Islands (looked worth upping in trip (12/10))
Incomparable (looks ready to strike when dropped back to 5f)
Intransigent (related to smart AW performer and promise on debut (10/10))
Kames Park (no chance the way he was ridden in slowly run race (12/10))
La Capriosa (forced an overly strong pace over the wrong trip (8/1))
Priestley's Reward (ran best race so far when second on All Weather debut (22/10))
Showboating (good effort in slowly run race (14/1))
Steelcut (best of those held up at Lingfield (7/1))
Wrapped Up (no chance from a wide draw last time (18/11); still unexposed)

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Senior British Open: Former champs look a class apart

General / Paul Krishnamurty / 19 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

The greatest links player ever?

"I would estimate the 'real' probability of a Lehman success this week as around half his current [9.2] odds."

We may have seen some recent shocks at the Majors but the Senior British Open tends to be dominated by the game's elder leading lights. Paul Krishnamurty weighs up a stellar field for this week's event.

Concluding a magnificent month for British golf, the Senior Open Championship fills it's usual slot, immediately following the main event at Royal St George's. While nobody would try and draw meaningful comparisons between seniors and the main tour Majors, so far as prestige is concerned, that shouldn't act as any sort of deterrant to punters. In fact, the formbook tends to stand up much better in seniors events, due to the lack of strength in depth at this level.

Whereas the 'proper' Open Championship has now yielded six shock winners in the last 13 renewals, this seniors major has been largely predictable. Five of the last six have gone to three very obvious names - Tom Watson, Loren Roberts and Bernhard Langer. Furthermore, all bar a few of the places were filled by similar big names near the top of the betting.

Our task might be eased further by the absence of some big-names at Walton Heath. In addition to twice former champ Roberts, there's no Greg Norman or Fred Couples. Moreover, many of those who have thrived in recent Seniors Opens are in much worse form this time around. Fred Funk for instance finished third and second in the last two renewals, yet has barely challenged on this year's Champions Tour. Likewise, consistent types Larry Mize and Jay Haas seem to be in decline. Corey Pavin remains a big contender, but isn't in the same form as last year, when finishing runner-up in this, in addition to some excellent PGA Tour numbers. Even Langer, usually extremely classy amongst the seniors, arrives under something of a cloud following thumb surgery. Worryingly, he missed the cut at both the Open, and previously on one of his favourite German courses.

All of this points towards some very obvious candidates, not least [9.2] favourite Tom Lehman. Lehman is easily the best of this crowd on the Champions Tour, winning three times this season. Indeed, he remains competitive against the younger men, as illustrated by an excellent 22nd in the Open. The only concern is that, for the last two years, Lehman has arrived here on the back of a fortnight's golf at the higher level, and gone on to underperform in the Seniors. Nevertheless, he is surely too good to not win this event at some stage, especially as a former Open champion. I would estimate the 'real' probability of a Lehman success this week as around half his current [9.2] odds.

If Lehman does underperform again, another former Open champion is well-placed to take advantage. Nick Price is one of the best links exponents of the last few decades, winning at Turnberry in 1994, after previously being touched off by Open legends Watson and Ballesteros. Given that record, it is surprising that Price has never bothered to make the journey across for this seniors major, and the Zimbabwean could reap rewards for making the effort this time. He's certainly been amongst the best of these on the Champions Tour this season, winning the Toshiba Classic and twice finishing runner-up since, including last time out.

It is also impossible to ignore Tom Watson, whose heroics at Sandwich reinforced the hard to dispute assertion that he's the greatest links player of all time. On that evidence, plus the fact he won the Seniors PGA recently, Tom hasn't deteriorated since last winning this event in 2007. At the age of 61, there must be a concern that a second tough links event so soon after Royal St George's will be too much, but he didn't fare badly when eighth two years ago, days after losing a play-off at Turnberry.

Next up another man with a solid record in both this event and the Open. John Cook was runner-up to Faldo at Muirfield in 1992, and also to Bruce Vaughan in the Seniors three years ago. He's enjoying a fine season, winning three times and never far from contention, and should be fresher than his principal rivals who played Sandwich. Cook has a very reliable long game, and looks a rock-solid pick for both win and place markets.

Indeed, place markets often yield the best value in seniors events due to the lack of strength in depth. Take a look back through recent leaderboards in this event, and you'll struggle to find many who started the week in triple-figures. One very consistent character who rates a must-bet across all markets is last year's third, Peter Senior. The Aussie veteran is a model of consistency, registering five top-tens on his last eight Champions Tour starts, and remains highly competitive against the younger men. Only last December, Senior won the prestigious Australian PGA.

Finally another Aussie. Peter Fowler has been in stellar form on the European Seniors Tour, registering four top-threes in his last five starts, winning twice. As in his younger days, Fowler has a very reliable long game, and possesses more power than most of his peers. That could be an advantage around Walton Heath, and those recent numbers alone must make Fowler a worthy wager.

Recommended Bets

Outright

6pts Tom Lehman @ [9.2]
4pts Nick Price @ [13.0]
3pts Tom Watson @ [15.0]
3pts John Cook @ [18.0]
2pts Peter Senior @ [28.0]
1pt Peter Fowler @ [50.0]

Top-five finish

4pts Nick Price @ [4.0]
4pts John Cook @ [5.2]
2pts Peter Senior @ [7.0]
2pts Peter Fowler @ [9.0]

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Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Back Cass to show her class

Timeform Radio Tip / Rory Delargy / 03 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will we see Curragh winners?

"Rahya Cass made her handicap debut off 95 last year, but has dropped to a generous looking 76, and looks the proverbial gift horse with her yard in typical early-season health."

Rory Delargy joins Gina Bryce for a mixed day of racing from Market Rasen, Doncaster, The Curragh and Limerick. He looks to Ireland's premier Flat venue for his best bet.

Sixteen-year old Shane Gray has had a fortnight to remember. The apprentice only had his first ride in December, but has now ridden two winners from just a handful of rides for his boss Tommy Stack. It's doubtful whether the 10lb he's able to claim when riding for the yard will last long, so we should latch onto him while we can.

Gray rides Rahya Cass for Stack in the Celebrating Mothers' Day At The Races Handicap at 14:55, and there are good reasons why she should be supported, aside from that invaluable 10lb. Rahya Cass was a talented juvenile for Stack in 2009, winning her maiden over C&D despite a tendency to flash her tail and twice making the frame in Listed company subsequently before failing to stay 7f on her final outing.

A move to Jeremy Gask in Wiltshire last year failed to pay dividends, but the filly showed on her return to Stack's Cashel base that she retained much of her old ability, finishing third at Dundalk under today's rider, not at all knocked about. She made her handicap debut off 95 last year, but has dropped to a generous looking 76, and looks the proverbial gift horse with her yard in typical early-season health. In a lightly-traded Betfair market she can currently be backed at [7.0], but would appeal at even shorter odds.

The Curragh card is unusual for a Flat card in that it includes a bumper, and it's no surprise that Barry Connell, one of the biggest supporters of such races and a sponsor of this series, should be mob-handed in the Rockview (QR) Bumper at 17:00.

Connell's best chance comes in the shape of the highly-touted Mart Lane, who needs to improve on his workmanlike Leopardstown debut win, but he's sure to be well supported against likely favourite Samain. It may be that the front two end up overbet, and with Willie Mullins expressing a view that Samain will be better left-handed (backed up by the visual impression of his debut win for the yard at Punchestown), there may be value to be had by supporting the proven Whatwillwecallher from the yard of Robert Tyner, who went agonisingly close to winning this with Our Musician in 2009.

Most bumper form is hard to get a handle on due to the races turning into tactical affairs, but Whatwillwecallher has strung the field out when successful in a couple of mares' events at Limerick this year, and there's no denying that she has achieved more than most of this field on form. She's won a point at Lemalla and will be better suited by the testing nature of the Curragh track that the tight bends of Limerick, so is entitled to improve further, and she should reward each-way support at a fair price.

Recommended Bets
Back Rahya Cass in the 14:55 Curragh @ [7.0] or better (NAP)
Back Whatwillwecallher in the 17:00 Curragh @ [7.2] or better (NB)

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