Michael Vaughan: Pair of former Major winners to adapt well to the conditions

"Graeme McDowell (38.0) and Padraig Harrington (21.0) have similar assets going for them. Both good putters on their day, experienced links players and resourceful guys around the greens. They’re both major winners of course and that will help them if they’re in contention and both offer good back-to-lay material."

Michael Vaughan explains why this year's Open course is not one for the faint-hearted and which skills are required to master it. Padraig Harrington and Graeme McDowell could be lively runners over the next four days.

Straight hitting, a cute game around the greens, an ability to handle the conditions and plenty of patience will be required this week at The Open.

Step forward Lee Westwood, who has all of the above in spades. He's an absolute class player as his position in the rankings, the number of tournaments he's won and his Ryder Cup performances prove.

That said, with each major that goes by golf fans will wonder more and more whether it will ever happen for him. And with that comes pressure. He, more than anyone else, will be aware that the top golfers are judged on majors won once they've packed it up and he'll be desperate to get the monkey off his back. Of course, you need a bit of luck with the conditions, especially at The Open where being out on the course in the best of the weather can radically affect the sort of scores you're shooting. But Lee has been incredibly consistent over the past few years, always there or thereabouts come Sunday. At 17.016/1 he's a slightly sorter price than what I'd want about him winning the whole thing but the 2.881/1 on him finishing in the Top 10 looks a pretty fair price.

I think this year's Open will be won by a European. This is links golf at its hardest with rain, wind and thick grass throwing all sorts of challenges at the world's elite. You don't just rock up after playing on the manicured fairways of the PGA Tour and find it easy to play good golf on a course like this. It takes experience and superb course management. It's one of those places where sometimes a bogey isn't the worst thing in the world on certain holes and you just have to take your medicine. Graeme McDowell (38.0) and Padraig Harrington (21.0) have similar assets going for them. Both good putters on their day, experienced links players and resourceful guys around the greens. They're both major winners of course and that will help them if they're in contention and both offer good back-to-lay material.

One player I think won't like this course though is Luke Donald. You've got to make the Par 5s count on a course as hard as this and I'm not sure he's long enough off the tee to reach the greens in two. He's a straight hitter, we know that much, but he just hasn't really performed in majors recently and he's probably a guy who views a US Open or even the USPGA as his best chance of winning a big one. I wish him all the best of course but 3.32/1 looks short on him finishing in the Top 10 so that looks worth laying.

Recommended Bets

Back Lee Westwood for a Top 10 finish @ 2.881/1
Back-to-lay Padraig Harrington @ 21.020/1
Back-to-lay Graeme McDowell @ 38.037/1
Lay Luke Donald for a Top 10 finish @ 3.32/1

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Coolmore Classic Review: A Classic result for former jockey Quinton

News / Gary Crispe / 25 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ron Quinton after training the winner of the 2002 Crown Oaks

"Ofcourseican who has been in career best form improved her Timeform rating again in the Coolmore Classic..."

Saturday's Group 1 Coolmore Classic over 1500m at Rosehill saw former champion rider, now trainer Ron Quinton, achieve a unique a milestone when Ofcourseican rallied late to claim the major end of the prize writes Timeform Australia's Gary Crispe...

Quinton, who won the race twice as a rider made history being the first ex-jockey to also prepare the winner the feature fillies and mares classic.

Quinton who won the inaugural running of the Coolmore Classic back in 1973 aboard the late Tommy Smith-trained Miss Personality also won the event on champion mare Emancipation trained by Neville Begg in 1984 and there is just a touch of irony in Saturday's result as Ofcourseican narrowly defeated Secret Admirer, trained by Neville's son Graeme.

Ofcourseican registered her eighth win in 26 career starts easily registering her biggest victory to date. A convincing winner of the Group 3 Liverpool City Cup last start but previously untried at 1500m, she dispelled any doubts about her ability to run out the distance strongly with a resolute finish deepest on the course to reach the lead 200m out then stall off challenges from two smart mares at the top of the weights Secret Admirer and King's Rose.

History yet again proved a harsh taskmaster for horses handicapped to carry more than 56kgs. Only four horses in the 39 years prior had carried more weight to win and while Secret Admirer (58kgs) and King's Rose (57.5kgs) came close they were held out by the lighter weighted Ofcourseican on the line.

Ofcourseican who has been in career best form improved her Timeform rating again in the Coolmore Classic, increasing her figure to 114 to a new career peak, up 2 lb from her previous mark in the Liverpool City Cup.

This value is under the five-year winning average Timeform rating for the race but slightly above the average rating suggested by historical race analysis.

Runner up, 2011 Group 1 Epsom Handicap winner Secret Admirer was impressive in defeat rating to 123, an increase 1 lb from her past master figure while third-placed King's Rose returned a rating of 122, her best figure since joining Peter Moody's stables last year.

Despite an official track rating of dead, race time analysis suggests a racing surface closer to the dead-slow range. Not all runners were suited by those conditions plus the added bias against racing on the fence resulted in most of the winners for the day coming down the centre of the track.

Race favourite Steps In Time, who was also on trial at the 1500m, set the pace throughout but pulled hard and refused to settle under Jimmy Cassidy. She turned for home well clear and had several runners off the bit chasing, however she compounded quickly leaving the race set up for those horses racing on the back of the speed.

Three-year-old filly Streama was one of those being hard ridden on the home turn. She failed to run into the race after tracking Steps In Time, beaten just over three lengths but in terms of her rating, she ran to her Surround Stakes winning form at her start prior.

Trainer Guy Walter is now toying with the idea of stepping her up in distance to the Group 1 Vinery Stakes over 2000m in a fortnight.

The winner Ofcourseican is likely to progress to the Group 1 Queen Of The Turf Stakes over 1500m at Rosehill in two weeks time where she is likely to again meet both Secret Admirer and King's Rose. However those mares will meet her much better under the weight for age conditions of that race.

Robin Bastiman is keen to get Borderlescott back on turf over a straight five furlongs after he was well beaten on his seasonal return at Lingfield......

Trainer Tom Taaffe has secured the services of Andrew Lynch for the ride on Treacle in the Grand National at Aintree on April 14......

Premio Loco landed the Group 3 Winter Derby at Lingfield on Saturday under an excellent ride from George Baker......

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Home And Away: Scunthorpe boss to Bury former employers

Daily Tipping / Jonno Turner / 20 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Alan Knill jumped two divisions when leaving Bury for Scunthorpe, yet is now joint on points with his old club

Jonno Turner is backing two of the clubs involved in the League One relegation battle to claim important victories on Tuesday night...

Not a great start to the week yesterday. It was my girlfriend's birthday and so I told her I'd give her a ring. We had a big bust up when I called from Morocco.

But don't worry, we're staying close to home this evening and focussing on two games taking place in the English third tier.

Chesterfield welcome Huddersfield to the B2Net Stadium tonight, and this one is a crunch encounter for both sides, but for different reasons.

The Spireites sit deep in the relegation zone and are quickly running out of games in order to salvage their season.

John Sheridan has rallied his troops significantly since January, where he brought in several players who have made their presence known in a side which has spent the majority of this miserable campaign in the mire.

That strengthening has seen Chesterfield lose just three of their last 14 outings, picking up four wins in six in front of their fans - and with a Wembley final on the horizon this Sunday, players will be desperate to book their place in the starting eleven for that trip to the capital as they face Huddersfield on their home patch.

The visitors have experienced a funny old season, and the pressure is on new boss Simon Grayson to see them into the Championship or this side could forever be cited as an excuse for managerial stability.

The Terriers sacked Lee Clark in unexplained circumstances as he was seemingly on the cusp of delivering them into the second tier, and since he left his ex-players have hardly pulled any trees up.

Not to say they've been losing, as one loss in 16 shows that the nucleus of this side is still strong, but just two wins in nine shows that they are squandering what could turn out to be important points.

Indeed, Grayson's side sit in fourth place, and barring a miracle will have to make do with a play-off place come May. With a nine-point margin over seventh, one wonders whether things might go a bit stale at the Galpharm yet.

Chesterfield secured an impressive draw with MK Dons at the B2Net on Saturday and I believe that they could again impact things at the top end of the table tonight as things get increasingly desperate for Sheridan's men.

Bet 1: Chesterfield (HOME) to win @ [3.8]

My girlfriend said that, for my birthday, I could re-enact any film sex scene of my choosing. I thanked her profusely and then politely informed her that my mate Ted and I would be going camping this weekend.

It's time for a quick trip over the peaks to Greater Manchester for our second tip of the day, as Bury welcome Scunthorpe in a clash which features two sides who sit outside of the drop zone, but only just.

The hosts are in the midst of a miserable run which has seen them go 11 games without even the faintest sniff of three points.

Four losses in five has left the Shakers hovering precariously over the relegation places, and they will be desperate for the scalp of fellow strugglers Scunthorpe this evening in order to ease their worries.

But four goals conceded in each of their last three games shows that there are major defensive issues down at Gigg Lane, and the Iron will be aiming to take advantage of those frailties.

Bury have not won on their own patch in five games, and their former boss Alan Knill's Scunthorpe side will be looking to extend the impressive away form they've shown of late and take three points back east.

Scunny have lost just once in eight games on the road, and have a knack of picking up important points against fellow strugglers.

Just five goals conceded in their last five games shows that Knill has his side playing with solidarity, and their nine goals scored in that time also indicates that Bury's anxious defence may be in for another long night this evening.

Bet 2: Scunthorpe (AWAY) to win @ [2.48]

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Will Greenwood: How to bet on top try scorer - by a former winner

Rugby World Cup / Will Greenwood / 01 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Kurtley Beale is a decent outside bet

"The Pool stage is where the top try scorer is won and lost. In the knockout rounds, the tries dry up."

Will Greenwood was joint-top try scorer at the Rugby World Cup eight years ago. Here, he explains how to play one of the tournament's trickiest markets....

Top try scorer is a very complicated market to bet on at the Rugby World Cup. In 2003, I finished the tournament as joint top, having crossed the whitewash five times during England's victorious campaign, but I shared the honour with Josh Lewsey who scored the same amount of tries in the 113-11 Pool stage humbling of Uruguay.

That shows what a tricky market this can be and why it might pay to look down the market for a long odds candidate. The Pool stage is where the top try scorer is won and lost. That's where you get the big ten teams playing at odds on, beating smaller nations by huge margins. In the knockout stages, the tries dry up.

At [8.0], New Zealand's Cory Jane is a worthy market leader. He's strong, robust, prolific and, if the hosts are to win this World Cup, as the market expects them to at 1.76, it makes sense to back their brilliant winger to bag lots of points.

But it's not as simple as that. In 1995, South Africa won the World Cup, beating a New Zealand team that included Jonah Lomu at his peak. Marc Ellis, who didn't even feature in the knockout stage for the All Blacks, finished as top try scorer because he ran in six in a Pool win over Japan.

There are three key first round games to consider when weighing up this bet: New Zealand v Japan (again), England v Romania and Australia v Russia. In those games, Jane, Kurtley Beale (26.0), Zac Guildford (13.5), Digby Ioane (10.0), James O'Connor (13.0) and Chris Ashton (13.5) could all take this market by storm.

The games take place on September 16, 24 and October 1 respectively. The big names at the top of the market could be rested so it makes sense to wait to see who is selected before betting big money in the top try scorer market.

Australia's backs could make hay when they meet Italy on the opening weekend for a match in which Ioane could score a hatful. I'm backing England to go far in this tournament but I don't expect them to destroy teams early on in the way that New Zealand and Australia undoubtedly will. For a pre-tournament value bet, Kurtley Beale is my tip at [26.0]. Those are good odds but be sure to return to the market once you know the teams for those key games.

Recommended Bet: 1pt Back Kurtley Beale @ [26.0].

*

Follow Will's advice on Betting.Betfair throughout the Rugby World Cup - next week he previews England's opener against Argentina.

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Senior British Open: Former champs look a class apart

General / Paul Krishnamurty / 19 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

The greatest links player ever?

"I would estimate the 'real' probability of a Lehman success this week as around half his current [9.2] odds."

We may have seen some recent shocks at the Majors but the Senior British Open tends to be dominated by the game's elder leading lights. Paul Krishnamurty weighs up a stellar field for this week's event.

Concluding a magnificent month for British golf, the Senior Open Championship fills it's usual slot, immediately following the main event at Royal St George's. While nobody would try and draw meaningful comparisons between seniors and the main tour Majors, so far as prestige is concerned, that shouldn't act as any sort of deterrant to punters. In fact, the formbook tends to stand up much better in seniors events, due to the lack of strength in depth at this level.

Whereas the 'proper' Open Championship has now yielded six shock winners in the last 13 renewals, this seniors major has been largely predictable. Five of the last six have gone to three very obvious names - Tom Watson, Loren Roberts and Bernhard Langer. Furthermore, all bar a few of the places were filled by similar big names near the top of the betting.

Our task might be eased further by the absence of some big-names at Walton Heath. In addition to twice former champ Roberts, there's no Greg Norman or Fred Couples. Moreover, many of those who have thrived in recent Seniors Opens are in much worse form this time around. Fred Funk for instance finished third and second in the last two renewals, yet has barely challenged on this year's Champions Tour. Likewise, consistent types Larry Mize and Jay Haas seem to be in decline. Corey Pavin remains a big contender, but isn't in the same form as last year, when finishing runner-up in this, in addition to some excellent PGA Tour numbers. Even Langer, usually extremely classy amongst the seniors, arrives under something of a cloud following thumb surgery. Worryingly, he missed the cut at both the Open, and previously on one of his favourite German courses.

All of this points towards some very obvious candidates, not least [9.2] favourite Tom Lehman. Lehman is easily the best of this crowd on the Champions Tour, winning three times this season. Indeed, he remains competitive against the younger men, as illustrated by an excellent 22nd in the Open. The only concern is that, for the last two years, Lehman has arrived here on the back of a fortnight's golf at the higher level, and gone on to underperform in the Seniors. Nevertheless, he is surely too good to not win this event at some stage, especially as a former Open champion. I would estimate the 'real' probability of a Lehman success this week as around half his current [9.2] odds.

If Lehman does underperform again, another former Open champion is well-placed to take advantage. Nick Price is one of the best links exponents of the last few decades, winning at Turnberry in 1994, after previously being touched off by Open legends Watson and Ballesteros. Given that record, it is surprising that Price has never bothered to make the journey across for this seniors major, and the Zimbabwean could reap rewards for making the effort this time. He's certainly been amongst the best of these on the Champions Tour this season, winning the Toshiba Classic and twice finishing runner-up since, including last time out.

It is also impossible to ignore Tom Watson, whose heroics at Sandwich reinforced the hard to dispute assertion that he's the greatest links player of all time. On that evidence, plus the fact he won the Seniors PGA recently, Tom hasn't deteriorated since last winning this event in 2007. At the age of 61, there must be a concern that a second tough links event so soon after Royal St George's will be too much, but he didn't fare badly when eighth two years ago, days after losing a play-off at Turnberry.

Next up another man with a solid record in both this event and the Open. John Cook was runner-up to Faldo at Muirfield in 1992, and also to Bruce Vaughan in the Seniors three years ago. He's enjoying a fine season, winning three times and never far from contention, and should be fresher than his principal rivals who played Sandwich. Cook has a very reliable long game, and looks a rock-solid pick for both win and place markets.

Indeed, place markets often yield the best value in seniors events due to the lack of strength in depth. Take a look back through recent leaderboards in this event, and you'll struggle to find many who started the week in triple-figures. One very consistent character who rates a must-bet across all markets is last year's third, Peter Senior. The Aussie veteran is a model of consistency, registering five top-tens on his last eight Champions Tour starts, and remains highly competitive against the younger men. Only last December, Senior won the prestigious Australian PGA.

Finally another Aussie. Peter Fowler has been in stellar form on the European Seniors Tour, registering four top-threes in his last five starts, winning twice. As in his younger days, Fowler has a very reliable long game, and possesses more power than most of his peers. That could be an advantage around Walton Heath, and those recent numbers alone must make Fowler a worthy wager.

Recommended Bets

Outright

6pts Tom Lehman @ [9.2]
4pts Nick Price @ [13.0]
3pts Tom Watson @ [15.0]
3pts John Cook @ [18.0]
2pts Peter Senior @ [28.0]
1pt Peter Fowler @ [50.0]

Top-five finish

4pts Nick Price @ [4.0]
4pts John Cook @ [5.2]
2pts Peter Senior @ [7.0]
2pts Peter Fowler @ [9.0]

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