Michael Vaughan: Pair of former Major winners to adapt well to the conditions

"Graeme McDowell (38.0) and Padraig Harrington (21.0) have similar assets going for them. Both good putters on their day, experienced links players and resourceful guys around the greens. They’re both major winners of course and that will help them if they’re in contention and both offer good back-to-lay material."

Michael Vaughan explains why this year's Open course is not one for the faint-hearted and which skills are required to master it. Padraig Harrington and Graeme McDowell could be lively runners over the next four days.

Straight hitting, a cute game around the greens, an ability to handle the conditions and plenty of patience will be required this week at The Open.

Step forward Lee Westwood, who has all of the above in spades. He's an absolute class player as his position in the rankings, the number of tournaments he's won and his Ryder Cup performances prove.

That said, with each major that goes by golf fans will wonder more and more whether it will ever happen for him. And with that comes pressure. He, more than anyone else, will be aware that the top golfers are judged on majors won once they've packed it up and he'll be desperate to get the monkey off his back. Of course, you need a bit of luck with the conditions, especially at The Open where being out on the course in the best of the weather can radically affect the sort of scores you're shooting. But Lee has been incredibly consistent over the past few years, always there or thereabouts come Sunday. At 17.016/1 he's a slightly sorter price than what I'd want about him winning the whole thing but the 2.881/1 on him finishing in the Top 10 looks a pretty fair price.

I think this year's Open will be won by a European. This is links golf at its hardest with rain, wind and thick grass throwing all sorts of challenges at the world's elite. You don't just rock up after playing on the manicured fairways of the PGA Tour and find it easy to play good golf on a course like this. It takes experience and superb course management. It's one of those places where sometimes a bogey isn't the worst thing in the world on certain holes and you just have to take your medicine. Graeme McDowell (38.0) and Padraig Harrington (21.0) have similar assets going for them. Both good putters on their day, experienced links players and resourceful guys around the greens. They're both major winners of course and that will help them if they're in contention and both offer good back-to-lay material.

One player I think won't like this course though is Luke Donald. You've got to make the Par 5s count on a course as hard as this and I'm not sure he's long enough off the tee to reach the greens in two. He's a straight hitter, we know that much, but he just hasn't really performed in majors recently and he's probably a guy who views a US Open or even the USPGA as his best chance of winning a big one. I wish him all the best of course but 3.32/1 looks short on him finishing in the Top 10 so that looks worth laying.

Recommended Bets

Back Lee Westwood for a Top 10 finish @ 2.881/1
Back-to-lay Padraig Harrington @ 21.020/1
Back-to-lay Graeme McDowell @ 38.037/1
Lay Luke Donald for a Top 10 finish @ 3.32/1

Amazon Watches Center

ABN Amro World Tennis 2012: The right conditions to back Federer

Events / Sean Calvert / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Roger Federer will enjoy the fast conditions this week

"But back on his favoured surface I can see Federer erasing the memory of the Davis Cup and obliging at around [2.2] at a tournament where, although he rarely plays here, he has a 17-5 record."

Sean Calvert isn't often in the business of tipping the tournament favourite but these days Roger Federer can be backed at odds-against. This is a tournament where he has a good record and is on a fast surface he'll like, so he's the call.

What a diabolical few days of betting I endured at the weekend, with some shocking luck manifesting itself across the board in both tennis and football.

Not only did Ivo Karlovic and Dan Evans suddenly become most unlikely Davis Cup heroes, but I also managed to back Luis Suarez to score first and Man United to win 2-1 at [85.0] at Old Trafford and Keith Andrews at [16.0] to score the last goal in the Black Country Derby (he scored in the 86th minute and it wasn't the last goal).

So, surely that misfortune can't continue and to put a stop to it, I'm having an investment in the week's biggest ATP event, the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam.

It's normally one of the quickest indoor hard surfaces of the year in Rotterdam and although they have altered the surface for this year's event I would imagine that it will be still fairly pacy, which will suit number one seed Roger Federer.

Fed was surprisingly beaten at odds of around [1.04] in the Davis Cup on clay by John Isner at the weekend and it won't be easy to switch from clay to quick indoor hard in a matter of days, but it certainly shouldn't be beyond the Swiss.

Federer has an excellent draw, away from main rivals Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro and has really only the unpredictable Alexandr Dolgopolov to concern him in the top half of the draw.

I'm not convinced, however, that Dolgo's junk ball playing style can beat a firing Roger Federer though and as ever with the Ukrainian, it's anyone's guess how he will perform on any given day.

Elsewhere in the top half, Mikhail Youzhny has found some form lately and the Russian, who enjoys the indoor conditions, will probably be Federer's second round opponent but he has a 0-11 career record against the Fed Express.

The former world number eight has a decent record here though, having won the title in 2007 and reaching the final two years ago.

Others in the top half include the returning Paul-Henri Mathieu, for whom this will be his second ATP Tour event since his comeback from injury, Feliciano Lopez, home favourite Robin Haase, the fading Nikolay Davydenko, and mercurial Frenchman Richard Gasquet.

The 'Gasman' was one of many of the top-20 players who skipped Davis Cup this weekend, but he's showing no signs of improvement so far in 2012 and will probably reach the last eight or possibly the semis at best this week.

The bottom half is much tougher to call with Berdych and Del Potro the obvious favourites, but also worth consideration are fast court specialist Michael Llodra, everyone's favourite racquet destructor Marcos Baghdatis, Serbia's Viktor Troicki, Marcel Granollers, Phillip Kohlschreiber and veteran Ivan Ljubicic.

Veteran Croatian, Ljubicic, enjoys Rotterdam where he has been twice a finalist and twice a semi finalist and it wouldn't be a huge shock if he found some form here this week and [90.0] is too big a price for a player of his class in these conditions, despite his advancing age.

Llodra won this in 2008 and will also enjoy the conditions, but his long flight back from Canada and opening match against Del Potro puts me off the [140.0] available about the Frenchman.

Berdych is a live contender based on his improved showing in 2012 and at around [7.0] he's not a bad shout, but he's never won back-to-back titles in his career on the ATP Tour and it's hard to see him starting now after winning in Montpelier last week.

Del Potro has been resting since Melbourne and is yet to win a title on indoor hard, but his draw looks pretty decent with Troicki and Ljubicic probably his main rivals.

But back on his favoured surface I can see Federer erasing the memory of the Davis Cup and obliging at around [2.2] at a tournament where, although he rarely plays here, he has a 17-5 record.

Recommended Bet

Back Federer at [2.2]

Long shot

Ljubicic at [90.0]

Working out who is going to win each quarter is half of the way to working out how to make a profit on the winner market of this event. Gary Boswell separates the value back-to-lays from the poor value bets....

This event does of course lack the glamour of the Australian Open just gone but there's a lively outsider who can come good for us if he's in the mood. Over to you, Guillermo....

The world's best are in Australia ahead of the first grand slam of the year and it's one of the most improved tennis players of 2011 who is attracting tipster Sean Calvert's money after hitting a big winner last week...

Amazon Watches Center

European Tour Form Guide: Windy conditions in Lawrie's favour again

Golf Form Guide / Mike Norman / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Paul Lawrie follow up last week’s win in Qatar with a Dubai Desert Classic win?

"Paul Lawrie's odds to win in Dubai might look a tad skinny at [38.0], but if the expected high winds materialise - as they did last week in Qatar - he could well prove the man to beat again."

After his fantastic performance in Qatar last week there's no reason why Form Guide leader Paul Lawrie can't win again says Mike Norman, especially if the wind blows.

Another excellent result was enjoyed by the Form Guide at last week's Qatar Masters. True, eventual winner Paul Lawrie wasn't one of our Players to Watch but he so nearly was.

But for a late dropped shot in Abu Dhabi the week before, Lawrie would have been higher up on the Form Guide ahead of the Qatar Masters and an automatic choice for that event. Still, of the 132 golfers assembled in Qatar, Lawrie - available to back at [60.0] pre-tournament - was fifth on our list and very much someone to consider.

On top of all that, last week's headline player Peter Hanson finished tied second meaning both the winner and second were highlighted on our Form Guide list prior to the Qatar Masters starting. Hanson was available to lay at [3.0] when holding a two-shot lead on Saturday.

This week sees the climax to the Desert Swing with the staging of the 23rd Dubai Desert Classic, an event that despite the absence of Tiger Woods (who usually plays here) still has an extremely strong look to it.

Tournament Finishing Positions

(Tournaments used: Qatar Masters, Abu Dhabi Championship, Volvo Golf Champions, Joburg Open, Africa Open, Dubai World Championship)

Paul Lawrie (4)... 31
Branden Grace (2)... 24
Peter Hanson (2)... 20
Louis Oosthuizen (3)... 20
Robert Rock (3)... 19
Retief Goosen (2)... 16.5
Jaco Van Zyl (2)... 13.5
Jason Day (1)... 13
Rory McIlroy (1)... 12
Alvaro Quiros (1)... 12
Charl Schwartzel (2) ... 12

*number in brackets after a player's name is the number of top-10 finishes achieved in qualifying period
**players in bold are scheduled to participate in the next tournament on tour

Not surprisingly for someone who has figures of 2-10-8-1 from his last four outings on the European Tour, Lawrie tops this week's guide. The Scot has been in fantastic form of late and clearly loves playing in the desert. His odds to win in Dubai might look a tad skinny at [38.0], but if the expected high winds materialise - as they did last week in Qatar - Lawrie could well prove the man to beat again.

As I've mentioned previously, the Players to Watch are automatic choices based on the top three players in the list who are participating in the upcoming event on Tour, and that means that Branden Grace ([100.0]) is still on our radar. However, like last week, I'm more confident of a decent showing from Peter Hanson ([29.0]) who, like Lawrie, remains in terrific form.

Players to watch: Paul Lawrie [38.0], Branden Grace [100.0], Peter Hanson [29.0]

The Cut-makers

Paul Lawrie... 19
Jaco Van Zyl... 17.5
Charl Schwartzel... 14.5
George Coetzee... 13.5
Retief Goosen... 12.5
Thomas Bjorn... 12
Luke Donald... 12
Ernie Els... 12
Jamie Elson... 12
Robert Karlsson... 12

With just one round played after the cut at the Qatar Masters Jaco Van Zyl couldn't make his way up the leaderboard as he has done in previous weeks. He remains a player to watch In-Play however, and so too does that man Lawrie. He is a proven winner, a former major champion no less, and showed at last year's end-of-season Dubai World Championship, and in Qatar last week when recording the joint lowest score of the final round, that he is very reliable in contention.

Keep an eye out also for George Coetzee. The general consensus is that he doesn't play well in contention, but as this mini In-Play guide shows, he hasn't performed too badly in recent weeks on a weekend. I know a few betting.betfair golf experts who rate the South African very highly.

Players to watch In-Play: Paul Lawrie, Jaco Van Zyl, George Coetzee

*You can read a full preview of this week's Dubai Desert Classic by reading The Punter's unmissable thoughts on the event tomorrow.

Ignore Peter Hanson's final round collapse in Abu Dhabi says Mike Norman, the Swede is still playing well and is one of this week's Form Guide's three suggested players....

The European Tour moves to UAE this week where a world class field has been assembled, but Mike Norman's Form Guides points us firmly in the direction of a likeable desert specialist....

Mike Norman's updated form guide has thrown up a trio of South African-born players to follow at this week's prestigious Volvo Golf Champions event....

Amazon Watches Center