ATP Indian Wells Betting: Federer and Nadal set for another tough battle in the desert

"I can't see either player winning this comfortably unless injury intervenes and preference is for the over 22.5 total games.."

Back over 22.5 games in Federer vs. Nadal at 1.865/6

Sean Calvert has seen a fair few Roger Federer versus Rafa Nadal matches over the years and he'll be up late again tonight for the latest instalment. He fancies this one to go long...

A fairly awful choke from Milos Raonic against an injured Jo-Wilfried Tsonga cost me my bet on Wednesday at the BNP Paribas Open. 

Not for the first time this week one of the men let a good lead slip away and it looked all over a Raonic win when Tsonga went a set down and had treatment on his knee, but Raonic handed the Frenchman a lifeline with an awful service game in set two and then gave him the match in a similar style in set three, ending on a double fault. 

That will be a painful loss for the Canadian, who normally possesses a more reliable temperament and Tsonga goes through to face Novak Djokovic, who had a 2am finish local time against Sam Querrey last night.

That match is for tomorrow though and today it's my outright tip Tomas Berdych taking on Kevin Anderson and if you're staying up late counting your Cheltenham winnings (or losses) then it's Rafa Nadal versus Roger Federer at 2am UK time.

Part 29 of this match-up is probably one of the toughest to predict, with both players not at their best physically. 

Rafa still has issues with his knees and it's in the lap of the gods how well he is able to move on any given day. He was hampered last night against Ernests Gulbis, but was still able to edge that one and similarly Federer struggled again with his back and crept past Stan Wawrinka.

Obviously the match-up favours Nadal, who has won 18 of their matches lifetime to Fed's 10 and we can expect the same tactics again tonight, as Rafa will try and get the ball up high to Roger's backhand and control the point from there.

That said, Federer won here 12 months ago on a very windy day and Nadal has only played two competitive matches on a hard court since that day, so all things considered it's far from easy to pick a winner in this one.

If I were going on the outright match odds market I would favour the underdog purely on the match-up at around 2.166/5, but I can't see either player winning this comfortably unless injury intervenes and preference is for the over 22.5 total games at 1.865/6.

Recommended Bet
Back over 22.5 games in Federer vs. Nadal at 1.865/6

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Men's US Open Betting: Djokovic has the draw but Federer the man to beat

"As far as betting strategy is concerned the outright market offers little in the way of real value with Djokovic having a very obvious favourites chance, but I can’t be on him at 2.68/5 at the moment and Federer is a better option at 3.7511/4."

Sean Calvert discusses the best betting angles ahead of the season's final major, and he believes Roger Federer is slightly better value than Novak Djokovic to lift the title...

The draw has been made for the final major of the year in what looks set to be a fascinating 2012 US Open Championship.

With Rafa Nadal ruling himself out due to a knee injury the draw has opened up and Britain's Andy Murray finds himself in the same half as a certain Swiss player, while Novak Djokovic's price has come in as news of his comfortable draw broke.

Djokovic is down to a best priced 2.68/5 to retain his Men's Singles title and with Juan Martin Del Potro the only one looking capable of defeating him on a hard court in the bottom half of the draw, the money has come in for Nole.

Rafa's absence has left a quarter in which I could make a case for about half a dozen players to make the semi finals, but whether they would be a match for Djokovic in the last four is questionable at best.

But those looking for big value will have their eyes firmly on that section of the draw and Tommy Haas at 330.0329/1, Janko Tipsarevic at 210.0209/1, John Isner at 95.094/1, David Ferrer at 75.074/1 and Richard Gasquet at 440.0439/1 will all attract those seeking a big shock in Djokovic's section.

One slip up or an injury/illness for the number two seed would blow the bottom half wide open and that's what would be required for any of the above to figure, but on the evidence of Cincinnati Nole is not at his best and shocks do happen in majors every now and then as Rafa found out at Wimbledon.

The top half looks the tougher and world number one Roger Federer must overcome the likes of Fernando Verdasco, Mardy Fish or Gilles Simon before thinking about a potential quarter final with Tomas Berdych.

But Berdych has never done well in New York and with the Czech currently struggling for form there's a great chance for one of Sam Querrey, Nico Almagro, Radek Stepanek or Florian Mayer to make a slam quarter final.

Murray's quest for a first major at his favourite Slam sees him take on former US and now Russian player Alex Bogomolov Jr, who will no doubt not have the New York crowd on his side after turning his back on America.

Bogomolov has stunned Murray before on a hard court, but his form in 2012 has been terrible and the Scot's first tough match on paper will probably materialise in round four with Milos Raonic his likely opponent.

Then a quarter final with probably Jo Wilfried Tsonga, or perhaps Kei Nishikori or Marin Cilic, as Tsonga as only once made the last eight in New York, which is a surprisingly poor return in conditions that should suit him.

Federer's path to that likely semi final with Murray starts with a hilarious first round encounter with the hapless Donald Young, who's just won his first match after 17 straight losses on tour.

But I expect Murray and Federer to come through to meet in New York for the first time since the 2008 final and that could be the match of the tournament if it happens.

As for the defending champion, his first round is a simple one against Italian clay courter Paolo Lorenzi, followed by a potential fourth round clash with Alex Dolgopolov, which would be a repeat of 12 months ago when they played out an entertaining 16-14 first set tie break.

For him the key clash would be against Del Potro in the quarters, but punters backing Delpo are taking a big chance that his injured left wrist will stand up to the rigours of five set tournament play - and that's without even considering the rest of his injury prone body.

And Delpo has a fascinating opening round against fellow Argentine, David Nalbandian, who he doesn't get on with at all, so that will be one to watch for potential fireworks.

As far as betting strategy is concerned the outright market offers little in the way of real value with Djokovic having a very obvious favourites chance, but I can't be on him at 2.68/5 at the moment and Federer is a better option at 3.7511/4.

Murray also has an outstanding chance, but at 5.04/1 he's a little on the short side considering his route is the toughest, so the best play is to back Federer and invest in one or two of the huge priced players in that wide open third section of the draw on a back to lay basis.

Recommended Bets

Back Roger Federer at 3.7511/4
Back to lay Janko Tipsarevic at 210.0209/1
Back to lay John Isner at 95.094/1
Back to lay Tommy Haas at 330.0329/1

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ABN Amro World Tennis 2012: The right conditions to back Federer

Events / Sean Calvert / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Roger Federer will enjoy the fast conditions this week

"But back on his favoured surface I can see Federer erasing the memory of the Davis Cup and obliging at around [2.2] at a tournament where, although he rarely plays here, he has a 17-5 record."

Sean Calvert isn't often in the business of tipping the tournament favourite but these days Roger Federer can be backed at odds-against. This is a tournament where he has a good record and is on a fast surface he'll like, so he's the call.

What a diabolical few days of betting I endured at the weekend, with some shocking luck manifesting itself across the board in both tennis and football.

Not only did Ivo Karlovic and Dan Evans suddenly become most unlikely Davis Cup heroes, but I also managed to back Luis Suarez to score first and Man United to win 2-1 at [85.0] at Old Trafford and Keith Andrews at [16.0] to score the last goal in the Black Country Derby (he scored in the 86th minute and it wasn't the last goal).

So, surely that misfortune can't continue and to put a stop to it, I'm having an investment in the week's biggest ATP event, the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam.

It's normally one of the quickest indoor hard surfaces of the year in Rotterdam and although they have altered the surface for this year's event I would imagine that it will be still fairly pacy, which will suit number one seed Roger Federer.

Fed was surprisingly beaten at odds of around [1.04] in the Davis Cup on clay by John Isner at the weekend and it won't be easy to switch from clay to quick indoor hard in a matter of days, but it certainly shouldn't be beyond the Swiss.

Federer has an excellent draw, away from main rivals Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro and has really only the unpredictable Alexandr Dolgopolov to concern him in the top half of the draw.

I'm not convinced, however, that Dolgo's junk ball playing style can beat a firing Roger Federer though and as ever with the Ukrainian, it's anyone's guess how he will perform on any given day.

Elsewhere in the top half, Mikhail Youzhny has found some form lately and the Russian, who enjoys the indoor conditions, will probably be Federer's second round opponent but he has a 0-11 career record against the Fed Express.

The former world number eight has a decent record here though, having won the title in 2007 and reaching the final two years ago.

Others in the top half include the returning Paul-Henri Mathieu, for whom this will be his second ATP Tour event since his comeback from injury, Feliciano Lopez, home favourite Robin Haase, the fading Nikolay Davydenko, and mercurial Frenchman Richard Gasquet.

The 'Gasman' was one of many of the top-20 players who skipped Davis Cup this weekend, but he's showing no signs of improvement so far in 2012 and will probably reach the last eight or possibly the semis at best this week.

The bottom half is much tougher to call with Berdych and Del Potro the obvious favourites, but also worth consideration are fast court specialist Michael Llodra, everyone's favourite racquet destructor Marcos Baghdatis, Serbia's Viktor Troicki, Marcel Granollers, Phillip Kohlschreiber and veteran Ivan Ljubicic.

Veteran Croatian, Ljubicic, enjoys Rotterdam where he has been twice a finalist and twice a semi finalist and it wouldn't be a huge shock if he found some form here this week and [90.0] is too big a price for a player of his class in these conditions, despite his advancing age.

Llodra won this in 2008 and will also enjoy the conditions, but his long flight back from Canada and opening match against Del Potro puts me off the [140.0] available about the Frenchman.

Berdych is a live contender based on his improved showing in 2012 and at around [7.0] he's not a bad shout, but he's never won back-to-back titles in his career on the ATP Tour and it's hard to see him starting now after winning in Montpelier last week.

Del Potro has been resting since Melbourne and is yet to win a title on indoor hard, but his draw looks pretty decent with Troicki and Ljubicic probably his main rivals.

But back on his favoured surface I can see Federer erasing the memory of the Davis Cup and obliging at around [2.2] at a tournament where, although he rarely plays here, he has a 17-5 record.

Recommended Bet

Back Federer at [2.2]

Long shot

Ljubicic at [90.0]

Working out who is going to win each quarter is half of the way to working out how to make a profit on the winner market of this event. Gary Boswell separates the value back-to-lays from the poor value bets....

This event does of course lack the glamour of the Australian Open just gone but there's a lively outsider who can come good for us if he's in the mood. Over to you, Guillermo....

The world's best are in Australia ahead of the first grand slam of the year and it's one of the most improved tennis players of 2011 who is attracting tipster Sean Calvert's money after hitting a big winner last week...

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French Open Betting Tips: Serbination awaits Federer

French Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 01 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Djokovic has been playing unreal tennis all year

"The Djokovic game appears to have no weaknesses right now, while Federer appears only to be able to play his best in patches these days and that won’t be good enough if Djoker plays as he has this year."

There's no arguing Roger Federer has been in fine form as he's negotiated his way to the semis but the 'Serbinator' Novak Djokovic is different gravy to anything he's faced so far. We have to side with the Australian Open Champion to win in four, says Sean Calvert.

Day 12 at Roland Garros sees the first of the semi final matches take place and the eagerly anticipated clash between Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer is the highlight of the day.

Hopefully this match won't be too badly affected by the swirling winds that have blighted several matches at this year's French Open and we'll get the spectacle that we all want to see.

Nole should be in perfect shape for this, having had a few days off due to Fabio Fognini's withdrawal. And if he continues the way he's been performing lately I don't see any way that Federer can win this match.

Most observers are falling over themselves to tell us how well Fed is playing in this tournament, but it must be said that he has only faced players against whom he has a massive psychological advantage.

The likes of Feliciano Lopez, Janko Tipsarevic, Stan Wawrinka and Gael Monfils, while good players, all bottle it when facing Fed, but the advantage will be the
other way today, with Djokovic having won his last three against the Swiss and playing off-the-charts tennis.

They haven't met on clay since Rome 2009, which Djokovic won, and only three times in total (2-1 Federer head-to-head), but these comparisons are largely irrelevant, as both players' games have changed a lot since those matches were played.

The Djokovic game appears to have no weaknesses right now, while Federer appears only to be able to play his best in patches these days and that won't be good enough if the Serb plays as he has so far this year.

If the Swiss does proceed to his fifth French Open final and go on to win it, it will surely rank up there with the very best achievements in his career. But I don't see it happening and Nole should take it in three or four sets, with the [3.85] about a 3-1 win the best bet in this one.

On the women's side of things, home favourite, Marion Bartoli takes on defending champion, Francesca Schiavone and surely this is the end of the road for the home hope. But I don't think she'll go quietly, having come this far.

Bartoli was really pumped up against Sveta Kuznetsova in the last round and that passion alone should ensure that this clash with Schiavone at least goes to a decider.

The pair have met five times in the past, but never on clay and not for two years, but the Italian holds a 4-1 head-to-head lead.

Four of those five games have gone to a deciding set and I envisage this one going the same way. Schiavone has needed three sets in both of her last two matches this week and a retirement the round before that.

I fancy Schiavone to come through eventually, but not strongly enough to take the [1.55] on offer, so I think the best bet in this one is to back three sets at around [2.76].

Recommended bets:

Back Djokovic to beat Federer 3-1 at [3.85]
Back three sets in Bartoli v Schiavone at [2.76]

The top seeded female players have been crashing out on a daily basis and with just four days to go, it's still wide open. Why is this the most open Slam we can remember, asks Guy McCrea....

He's up against the last man to beat him at Roland Garros and he looks exhausted and shaken. We just have to take on Rafael Nadal when he plays Robin Soderling, says Sean Calvert....

It's see-saw stuff for Murray who trades in double figures as he comes through tough fourth round test in the final set...

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Is Federer finished at 29?

General / Matthew Walton / 14 May 2011 / 2 Comments

Has father time finally caught up the legendary Fed?

"The question remains whether, in the modern game, we can expect to see a player winning a Grand Slam title beyond the magical 30 barrier. The last player to do so was Andre Agassi (then aged 32) at the Australian Open in 2003."

The stats say never to back 'has-been' Federer again, according to Matthew Walton, but do you believe him?

It may come as something of a surprise but, prior to the recent win of Nikolay Davydenko in the BMW Open, the oldest player to win on the ATP Tour this year was none other than Roger Federer - aged just 29 years old.

In fact, statistically speaking, the Swiss player should be viewed as something of an antique on the global tennis roadshow ... the best days are well and truly behind the former world No.1 and arguably greatest player ever to pick up a racquet.

And the evidence is there for all to see as Federer, who won 11 titles in 2004, another 11 titles in 2005 and then a further 12 in 2006 - a period of total domination which included no fewer than eight Grand Slams and 11 Masters Series titles - has managed just one tournament win so far this year.

That solitary triumph in Qatar back in January, aged 29 years 154 days, won't be the last which Federer adds to a list which numbers 67 to date, but it highlights an important factor in tennis betting, that age is a barrier to success. Not so much in winning individual matches but definitely with regards to winning specific tournaments.

Of course players can continue to win events far beyond Federer's current age (Andre Agassi held the No.1 spot in the rankings well past his 33rd birthday) but many punters mistakenly put tennis players into the same category as, say, footballers - still able to play to a high level after the age of 30. This very rarely happens.

Federer must now be viewed very much as the elder statesman of the ATP, certainly amongst the leading quartet of players where Nadal (24), Djokovic and Murray (both 23) can be said to still have some of their most productive years ahead of them. It's more 'Roger and out' for the player who currently boasts the most Grand Slam titles and he may well find that record erased from the record books by a younger man.

It's worth noting that of Federer's 16 Grand Slam titles, the Swiss maestro won eight before his 25th birthday and has won a further eight times since ... Rafael Nadal doesn't turn 25 until June 3 and should he celebrate this anniversary with another French Open title then the Spaniard will move his haul of majors into double figures. A mere six behind Federer with the best part of four years in hand.

Traders aren't blind to the ageing process. Federer has steadily drifted in the betting for major championships as his increasing age and decreasing performances have progressed at an almost identical rate. Now, after another failure in the recent Rome Masters, he's out to something around [18.0] for this year's French Open, a tournament he won barely two years ago.

The question remains whether, in the modern game, we can expect to see a player winning a Grand Slam title beyond the magical 30 barrier. The last player to do so was Andre Agassi (then aged 32) at the Australian Open in 2003... and the Las Vegan also won in Melbourne back in 2001 shortly after blowing out the candles on his 30th birthday cake.

Every now and again players do maintain their form and fitness - and, it must be said, have a little bit of good fortune - but it's surely impossible for Ken Rosewall's Australian Open win of 1972 (aged 37 years, 62 days) to be surpassed by any future Slam winner - even if Jonas Bjorkman made the Wimbledon SF's in 2006 when some 34 years young.

After many high productive years on the men's ATP Tour it's almost time for Federer to be regarded as yesterday's man and, in terms of betting, he's certainly one to view with a great deal of caution. In fact, it's almost worth saying that Federer shouldn't be backed to win another Grand Slam title.

He might win again, of course, but the question remains as to whether there is any great value in backing the Swiss player at the likes of Wimbledon and the US Open. There isn't.

Recommended Bet
Lay Roger Federer to win Wimbledon at [5.0]

Regular tennis analysis, comment and betting advice from Matthew Walton can be found at www.tennis-tipster.co.uk

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