ATP Indian Wells Betting: Federer and Nadal set for another tough battle in the desert

"I can't see either player winning this comfortably unless injury intervenes and preference is for the over 22.5 total games.."

Back over 22.5 games in Federer vs. Nadal at 1.865/6

Sean Calvert has seen a fair few Roger Federer versus Rafa Nadal matches over the years and he'll be up late again tonight for the latest instalment. He fancies this one to go long...

A fairly awful choke from Milos Raonic against an injured Jo-Wilfried Tsonga cost me my bet on Wednesday at the BNP Paribas Open. 

Not for the first time this week one of the men let a good lead slip away and it looked all over a Raonic win when Tsonga went a set down and had treatment on his knee, but Raonic handed the Frenchman a lifeline with an awful service game in set two and then gave him the match in a similar style in set three, ending on a double fault. 

That will be a painful loss for the Canadian, who normally possesses a more reliable temperament and Tsonga goes through to face Novak Djokovic, who had a 2am finish local time against Sam Querrey last night.

That match is for tomorrow though and today it's my outright tip Tomas Berdych taking on Kevin Anderson and if you're staying up late counting your Cheltenham winnings (or losses) then it's Rafa Nadal versus Roger Federer at 2am UK time.

Part 29 of this match-up is probably one of the toughest to predict, with both players not at their best physically. 

Rafa still has issues with his knees and it's in the lap of the gods how well he is able to move on any given day. He was hampered last night against Ernests Gulbis, but was still able to edge that one and similarly Federer struggled again with his back and crept past Stan Wawrinka.

Obviously the match-up favours Nadal, who has won 18 of their matches lifetime to Fed's 10 and we can expect the same tactics again tonight, as Rafa will try and get the ball up high to Roger's backhand and control the point from there.

That said, Federer won here 12 months ago on a very windy day and Nadal has only played two competitive matches on a hard court since that day, so all things considered it's far from easy to pick a winner in this one.

If I were going on the outright match odds market I would favour the underdog purely on the match-up at around 2.166/5, but I can't see either player winning this comfortably unless injury intervenes and preference is for the over 22.5 total games at 1.865/6.

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Back over 22.5 games in Federer vs. Nadal at 1.865/6

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Indian Wells Tips: Nadal to extend winning record against Fed

Events / Sean Calvert / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

The outdoor courts favour Nad

"I made Rafa my outright selection for this event on the basis that conditions here suit his game and despite Federer’s more impressive performance in the previous round, I see no reason to switch allegiances in this tournament now."

It's men's semi-final day at the BNP Paribas Open with the headline act being another instalment of Nadal v Federer and Sean Calvert is backing the Spaniard to extend his good record against the Swiss master

It was a tale of two Argentines on Friday at the BNP Paribas Open.

My recommended bet resulted in a disappointing loss for Juan Martin Del Potro, but those who were on my advice of backing David Nalbandian to take the opening set against Rafa Nadal were rewarded with a [4.6] winner.

Saturday is men's semi-final day at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden and first up at around 6pm UK time is Novak Djokovic v John Isner with the world number one priced up at around [1.13] to advance to the final.

This will be the third meeting between the pair, with Djokovic holding a 2-0 lead so far in their series, but they haven't played each other since 2010.

Djokovic looks like he's just coming into form at the right time in this event after a sluggish start, while Isner should have no shortage of confidence after making his second successive Masters 1000 semi.

He also comes into this match with additional self belief after recording his first win over a top four player when he defeated Roger Federer in the Davis Cup recently, so he'll have the right mindset when he steps on court tonight.

I can't see it being quite enough against Djokovic, but the big man should be able to take the match over the 20.5 total games mark if he serves well, which he'll have to against arguably the best returner in men's tennis at the moment.

Nole should have too much variety and a little extra class in this one, but my bet would be the overs at around [1.8].

The second semi final will be part 28 of the Federer v Nadal series, with Rafa holding an 18-9 advantage in competitive matches against the Swiss maestro.

This will be their first ever meeting at Indian Wells and Rafa is priced up at around [1.75] for the win, which is pretty reasonable considering that he's won four of their last five competitive matches and hasn't lost to Federer on an outdoor hard court since Miami in 2005.

Indeed, Rafa leads their series on outdoor hard courts by 5-1 in competitive matches and 7-1 overall, so on the face of it the Spaniard looks a pretty good bet at the current price.

An interesting wager in this match could be the 'second set winner' market, as Rafa has won the second set in eight of their last nine matches in all competitions. If you can get around [1.8] that could be worth an investment.

I made Rafa my outright selection for this event on the basis that conditions here suit his game and despite Federer's more impressive performance in the previous round, I see no reason to switch allegiances in this tournament now.

Del Potro was hugely disappointing yesterday against Fed and admitted to mentally checking out after a bad call cost him the chance to break in the first game of the match, which is a shocking admission from a top-10 player.

Nadal on the other hand had to dig deep against Nalbandian and was a couple of points away from losing, which should have sharpened him up and I expect his usual tactic of wearing Federer's backhand down until it breaks will be victorious again tonight eventually.

Recommended Bet
Back Nadal to beat Federer at [1.75]

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Sean Calvert continues a week of tipping with a look at this intriguing quarter-final between Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer......

Big-serving John Isner and Sean's nemesis Gilles Simon go head-to-head tonight and though Isner looks the more likely winner, the better bet is that it will be a pretty long match os it's time to turn to the total games...

Sean Calvert found some winners yesterday and on a day where the favourites should mostly prevail, the best bet is the in-form Ryan Harrison. He's up against a player in Gilles Simon with a suspect record here at Indian Wells...

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Rome Masters Tips: Who will win Nadal v Djokovic part IV?

Events / Sean Calvert / 15 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Rafa avenge last week's final defeat?

"Djokovic will be exhausted now after a three-hour stint against Murray and what he doesn’t need the day after is a match with Rafa Nadal."

The two best players in the world meet today for their fourth final since March with the Spaniard favoured to end the Serbian's phenomenal run - but does Sean Calvert share that view?

I've said many times that you can never tell which Andy Murray is likely to turn up on a tennis court and never was that more clearly illustrated than at the Foro Italico on Saturday night.

The error ridden Scot was awful in the first set against Novak Djokovic before coming back to serve for the match and then faltering again to move up another notch on the list of 'Great British Losers'.

If Djokovic wasn't tired before the semi-final - and he was - he'll be exhausted now after a three-hour stint against Murray and what he doesn't need the day after is a match with Rafa Nadal.

That's exactly what he's got though and we have the final that I predicted in my tournament preview.

In that preview I advised backing Rafa and I won't be changing my mind today. He'll be the fresher, the fitter, and the more motivated tennis player after losing to Nole in Madrid last week.

The pair are meeting for the fourth time since March after finals at Indian Wells, Miami and the Spanish capital, with the Serb winning all three of course in his amazing unbeaten start to 2011.

The layers reckon that the world number one will end that run today though, as he's been put in at around [1.5] to claim his sixth Rome Masters title.

A key factor in today's clash will be the slower conditions that Rafa loves, which should mean that far less of Djokovic's cross court backhand winners to the Nadal forehand will get past the Rafa defences.

Another one is the lack of free points on serve for either player, meaning more punishing rallies. The last time these two met in the final in Rome in 2009 there were no aces in the match, so if Djokovic is going to win this it will cost him physically.

I hope this match won't be spoiled by fatigue, but there is a good chance that Rafa could finish this one early after a tight first set, so there may some play in backing Nadal with a deficit in the handicap market.

The Spaniard is around [2.28] to win this two sets to love, which is another likely outcome, but as Nole has forgotten how to lose this year, it could be a risky play.

For me, the safest wager in the Rome Masters final 2011 is a Nadal outright win at around [1.5].

Recommended Bet
Back Nadal at [1.5]

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Madrid Masters Daily Tips: Del Potro can shade Nadal on the handicap

Events / Ben Caudell / 05 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Juan Martin Del Potro has found some serious form on clay over the last two weeks

"Although it’s extremely hard to oppose a Nadal win tonight, there is a strong possibility that Del Potro can take a set off the world No. 1. But my best bet will be to back Del Potro +4.5 Games at even money in the match handicap market."

Nadal is the undisputed king of clay and he should, as ever, find some way of beating Juan Martin Del Potro.

Rafael Nadal (ESP) v Juan Martin Del Potro

Thursday's pick of matches involves a pair of Grand Slam winners that will take centre stage and top billing at the Madrid Masters this evening.

World No. 1 Rafael Nadal faces Juan Martin Del Potro - the 2009 US Open Champion - for the ninth time in his career and for the second time in 2011; he currently leads their head-to-head series 5-3.

The Spaniard, who won this event last year defeating Roger Federer in the final, will have his work cut out today against the Argentine who looks to has finally recovered from a wrist injury that kept him out of the most part of the 2010 season. Del Potro has gone from strength to strength since his return and is a strong contender as the number one threat to Nadal's 2011 French Open campaign; he is currently joint-third favourite with Roger Federer, priced at [20.0].

There is no doubting Rafael Nadal's credentials on the clay, he is by far the best player to have ever graced the dirt and his statistics on the surface speak wonders. The Mallorca native has amassed 35 wins in a row on clay and is now 187-6 overall on the surface since 2005.

But the altitude and the stadium courts here play more like an indoor court than outdoor and help the bigger servers in the game with the speed of ball in the air a lot faster than at any other clay court tournament. This was highlighted when Del Potro won 80 per cent of service points to cruise past Marin Cilic 6-3 6-0 in just 64 minutes. His big serve could again benefit the Argentine when he faces Nadal tonight.

The Tandil native's recent form has been up there with the best. He won the Estoril Open last week defeating the number one and two seeds Robin Soderling and Fernando Verdasco respectively( both in straight sets) and he's won seven in a row on clay, seven of the last eight in Madrid and seven in a row in Europe.

Although it's extremely hard to oppose a Nadal win tonight, there is a strong possibility that Del Potro can take a set off the world No. 1. But my best bet will be to back Del Potro +4.5 Games at even money in the match handicap market. From their previous six best-of-three set matches the pair have played, only two have been won by Nadal by more than 4.5 Games. Furthermore, since the court surface change from indoor hard to clay in 2009, Nadal has won by this same margin of games just four out of his last ten matches.

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Back Del Potro +4.5 Games @ [2.0]

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Monte Carlo Masters Tips: Nadal can win title after Murray scare

Events / Sean Calvert / 16 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sean's backing Rafa for Monte Carlo glory

"The shock of dropping a set on clay will have sharpened Rafa up for Sunday’s championship match."

Fresh from an intense three set victory over Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal has to summon his energy and composure for Sunday's final against David Ferrer. Who is Sean Calvert backing?

Despite Jurgen Melzer's single-handed attempts to derail me this week, we should be still in profit after my original advice of a Nadal v Ferrer final came to fruition on Saturday.

The mercurial Melzer went down in straights to Ferrer in their semi-final and Andy Murray gave it all he had against Rafa, but was ground into submission in the end by the world number one.

So, those who were on my advice to back Nadal at [1.4] and Ferrer at [25.0] at the outset are comfortably in the money. But what of the final itself?

Murray showed that Nadal isn't totally unbeatable on the red dirt by grabbing the second set in their last four clash, but I think the shock of dropping a set on clay will have sharpened Rafa up for Sunday's championship match.

As you would expect, Nadal and Ferrer have quite a history, with Rafa leading 12-4 overall and 8-1 on the red dirt - Ferrer's only win coming way back in 2004 in Stuttgart.

Since then, Ferrer has managed to wrestle just two sets from Nadal in eight meetings and, although Nadal hasn't been at his peak this week in Monte-Carlo, it would take a brave individual to back Ferrer to buck that trend on Sunday.

Ferrer has been impressive here, but it's hard to see what he'll bring to the court that's new or different from their previous encounters. His strength is his consistency, stamina and dogged obstinance on the court, but these are all traits that today's opponent has in abundance and Nadal is better at it.

On these slow clay courts in Monte-Carlo, Ferrer's weight of shot is rarely going to breach Nadal's excellent defences and to expect him to do it time and again over three long sets is too much.

Unless Ferrer brings something significantly different to the table - and I can't think what that would be - Rafa should come through in two sets and that looks the bet at around [price]

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Nadal to beat Ferrer 2-0

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