Monte Carlo Masters Tips: Djokovic faces test as Berd takes off

Nole has an 8-1 head-to-head lead over the Czech, but this will be their first ever meeting on clay.

Sean Calvert explains why he believes Andy Murray's conqueror can cause the world number one a few problems in today's semi-final. Meanwhile, Rafa should win comfortably against Gilles Simon...

Friday was another good day at the Monte Carlo Masters after a tough start to the week, as both of the wagers I suggested were winners.

Andy Murray's match went the way I predicted - to a decider - and it was Tomas Berdych who took a deserved win after being the more forceful of the two players on the day.

It was one of those frustrating displays from Murray, who forced Sky commentator, Barry Millns, into several apologies as the expletives flew with regularity from the Scot's mouth in front of a stern faced Ivan Lendl.

And Gilles Simon's straight sets win over a misfiring Jo-Wilfried Tsonga brought further reward to those who were on the 2.56/4 available on Simon pre-match.

Saturday is semi-finals day and first up is Novak Djokovic versus Berdych and I think if there is ever a time at the moment to take the world number one on it could be now.

His performance against Robin Haase on Friday was patchy and he admitted that "it's tough to play tennis with the way I feel" after hearing of the passing of his grandfather a few days ago.

The other view is that he'll want to go on and win this event and dedicate it to his relative, so he may well be putting everything into the next couple of days.

So, there's his emotional state to consider as well as the usual form and statistics, which tell us that Nole has an 8-1 head-to-head lead over the Czech, but this will be their first ever meeting on clay.

I've always thought that Berdych should be a real contender on clay, but it's hard to believe in him completely with his often erratic and frustrating displays.

He certainly has it in him to beat Djokovic today and the 4.1n/a is a tempting price based on the Czech's best form and the emotional question mark over Nole.

The Berdman was excellent against Murray, but I don't trust him to produce back-to-back performances and consequently I think the best play in this one is to lay Djokovic 2-0 at 1.855/6.

The other bet to consider in my view is the 4.3100/30 about Djokovic taking this one by two sets to one, as I think the Serb will have the odd dip and Berdych should be able to cash in - at least long enough to take a set.

The other semi-final features Rafa Nadal taking on Gilles Simon for the sixth time, with Rafa leading 4-1 overall and this will also be their first meeting on clay.

This should be pretty much a perfect match-up for Rafa, who won't be coughing up anywhere near as many unforced errors as Tsonga did against Simon on Friday.

The Frenchman is going to have to play a much more aggressive game than he's comfortable with to have a chance today, although Nadal hasn't been at his best this week.

Rafa is around 1.071/14 to win, which is far too short considering the knees are still troubling him and the only bet I would consider in this is taking Simon on the handicap with a 5.5 games start at around 2.0621/20.

Recommended Bet
Lay Djokovic 2-0 at 1.855/6

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Monte Carlo Masters Tips: Nadal can win title after Murray scare

Events / Sean Calvert / 16 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sean's backing Rafa for Monte Carlo glory

"The shock of dropping a set on clay will have sharpened Rafa up for Sunday’s championship match."

Fresh from an intense three set victory over Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal has to summon his energy and composure for Sunday's final against David Ferrer. Who is Sean Calvert backing?

Despite Jurgen Melzer's single-handed attempts to derail me this week, we should be still in profit after my original advice of a Nadal v Ferrer final came to fruition on Saturday.

The mercurial Melzer went down in straights to Ferrer in their semi-final and Andy Murray gave it all he had against Rafa, but was ground into submission in the end by the world number one.

So, those who were on my advice to back Nadal at [1.4] and Ferrer at [25.0] at the outset are comfortably in the money. But what of the final itself?

Murray showed that Nadal isn't totally unbeatable on the red dirt by grabbing the second set in their last four clash, but I think the shock of dropping a set on clay will have sharpened Rafa up for Sunday's championship match.

As you would expect, Nadal and Ferrer have quite a history, with Rafa leading 12-4 overall and 8-1 on the red dirt - Ferrer's only win coming way back in 2004 in Stuttgart.

Since then, Ferrer has managed to wrestle just two sets from Nadal in eight meetings and, although Nadal hasn't been at his peak this week in Monte-Carlo, it would take a brave individual to back Ferrer to buck that trend on Sunday.

Ferrer has been impressive here, but it's hard to see what he'll bring to the court that's new or different from their previous encounters. His strength is his consistency, stamina and dogged obstinance on the court, but these are all traits that today's opponent has in abundance and Nadal is better at it.

On these slow clay courts in Monte-Carlo, Ferrer's weight of shot is rarely going to breach Nadal's excellent defences and to expect him to do it time and again over three long sets is too much.

Unless Ferrer brings something significantly different to the table - and I can't think what that would be - Rafa should come through in two sets and that looks the bet at around [price]

Recommended Bet
Nadal to beat Ferrer 2-0

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