Monte Carlo Masters Tips: Djokovic faces test as Berd takes off

Nole has an 8-1 head-to-head lead over the Czech, but this will be their first ever meeting on clay.

Sean Calvert explains why he believes Andy Murray's conqueror can cause the world number one a few problems in today's semi-final. Meanwhile, Rafa should win comfortably against Gilles Simon...

Friday was another good day at the Monte Carlo Masters after a tough start to the week, as both of the wagers I suggested were winners.

Andy Murray's match went the way I predicted - to a decider - and it was Tomas Berdych who took a deserved win after being the more forceful of the two players on the day.

It was one of those frustrating displays from Murray, who forced Sky commentator, Barry Millns, into several apologies as the expletives flew with regularity from the Scot's mouth in front of a stern faced Ivan Lendl.

And Gilles Simon's straight sets win over a misfiring Jo-Wilfried Tsonga brought further reward to those who were on the 2.56/4 available on Simon pre-match.

Saturday is semi-finals day and first up is Novak Djokovic versus Berdych and I think if there is ever a time at the moment to take the world number one on it could be now.

His performance against Robin Haase on Friday was patchy and he admitted that "it's tough to play tennis with the way I feel" after hearing of the passing of his grandfather a few days ago.

The other view is that he'll want to go on and win this event and dedicate it to his relative, so he may well be putting everything into the next couple of days.

So, there's his emotional state to consider as well as the usual form and statistics, which tell us that Nole has an 8-1 head-to-head lead over the Czech, but this will be their first ever meeting on clay.

I've always thought that Berdych should be a real contender on clay, but it's hard to believe in him completely with his often erratic and frustrating displays.

He certainly has it in him to beat Djokovic today and the 4.1n/a is a tempting price based on the Czech's best form and the emotional question mark over Nole.

The Berdman was excellent against Murray, but I don't trust him to produce back-to-back performances and consequently I think the best play in this one is to lay Djokovic 2-0 at 1.855/6.

The other bet to consider in my view is the 4.3100/30 about Djokovic taking this one by two sets to one, as I think the Serb will have the odd dip and Berdych should be able to cash in - at least long enough to take a set.

The other semi-final features Rafa Nadal taking on Gilles Simon for the sixth time, with Rafa leading 4-1 overall and this will also be their first meeting on clay.

This should be pretty much a perfect match-up for Rafa, who won't be coughing up anywhere near as many unforced errors as Tsonga did against Simon on Friday.

The Frenchman is going to have to play a much more aggressive game than he's comfortable with to have a chance today, although Nadal hasn't been at his best this week.

Rafa is around 1.071/14 to win, which is far too short considering the knees are still troubling him and the only bet I would consider in this is taking Simon on the handicap with a 5.5 games start at around 2.0621/20.

Recommended Bet
Lay Djokovic 2-0 at 1.855/6

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Weekend Review: Riverside takes to Ascot stage

Weekend Preview/Review / Timeform / 20 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Riverside Theatre winning the Betfair Ascot Chase.

"Riverside Theatre demonstrated that he retains all of his ability, jumping and travelling fluently..."

Timeform look back at a weekend featuring a winning return for Riverside Theatre in the Betfair Ascot Chase, a double for Donald McCain on the Ascot card and a battling victory for Giles Cross in Haydock's Grand National Trial...

Twelve months on from his last racecourse appearance, Riverside Theatre made a most impressive return to action to land back-to-back runnings of the Betfair Ascot Chase. A stress fracture of the pelvis enforced a year on the sidelines but Riverside Theatre demonstrated that he retains all of his ability, jumping and travelling fluently before being kept up to his work as the improving Medermit stuck on well.

Riverside Theatre, rated 171 by Timeform, will head to the Ryanair at the Cheltenham Festival with the strongest claims on form and, whilst his sole visit to Cheltenham resulted in a somewhat disappointing fifth in the Arkle in 2010, that effort can be put down to inexperience (just his third start over fences) and he would look the one to beat in the season's renewal, making his current price of [7.2] look incredibly tempting.

Another to enhance his Cheltenham claims was the Alan King-trained Invictus, who landed the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase. Having disappointed in the Dipper Novices' Chase at Cheltenham on his previous start, Invictus took the step up in trip in his stride to win readily.

Jumping much more fluently than at Cheltenham, Invictus quickened well to beat Bobs Worth by three lengths. However, he is essentially a speedier type than the runner-up and would not be sure to confirm the placings in the RSA on 3 lb worse terms. Invictus can currently be backed at [13.0] for the RSA, whilst Bobs Worth is available at [6.8]. A more suitable race for the winner could well be the Jewson, for which he is presently trading at [21.0].

Massini's Maguire, making just his ninth appearance over fences in a three-and-a-half-year timespan, showed himself still capable of smart form when beating Tullamore Dew by a head in the staying chase at Ascot. He may take some time to get over the exertions of Saturday's attritional contest, though he managed to highlight his Grand National claims.

Of more interest for that race, however, and currently available to back at [32.0] is the third-placed Cappa Bleu, who also filled that position in the Welsh National. The suspicion is that he may have been trained with Aintree in mind, so this was a promising effort on the whole.

Also on the Ascot card, Cholmondeley trainer Donald McCain landed a Saturday double with Super Duty and Bourne.

Super Duty is most certainly one to bear in mind for novice chasing next year, sure to be suited by further than two and a half miles in time, whilst Bourne, owned by the Timeform Betfair Racing Club, produced a very useful effort on his handicap debut with the promise of more to come given the likely strength of the form.

Moving North to Haydock, where the admirably tough and consistent Giles Cross won the Grand National Trial. Having finished as the runner-up in the Welsh National for the second consecutive year, Giles Cross was gaining his fifth career success under rules. The ten-year-old seemingly thrives on stamina sapping races of this ilk, and currently be backed at [29.0] for the Grand National, although prevailing ground conditions would likely be a factor in his participation.

Other winners of note on Haydock's card were Restless Harry, who seemed to bounce back after an unsuccessful stint novice chasing and two creditable and typically determined efforts behind Big Buck's, the Lucinda Russell-trained Brindisi Breeze (notched a fourth victory over hurdles and is available at [12.0] for the Albert Bartlett) and British debutant Une Artisite, previously trained in France, who stayed on well to deny High Samana after making a mistake at the final flight.

2010 Champion Hurdle winner Binocular very much thrust himself back into the 2012 reckoning, showing all of his old dash in winning Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle. Currently trading at [8.8], Timeform rate him as the leading British-trained hope for the Champion Hurdle, with only the minor obstacle that is Hurricane Fly ([1.98]) to overcome.

The review of this weekend would not be complete without mentioning the terrific Black Caviar, who equalled her best Timeform rating of 135 when winning the Lightning Stakes. For more on her nineteenth consecutive victory, read Gary Crispe's review "Black Caviar equals career-best Timeform rating".

There was also some informative racing across the Irish Sea this weekend, at Gowran on Saturday and Navan on Sunday, with the likes of Rubi Light, Zaidpour and Mourad all advertising their Festival claims.
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Timeform ratings were in fine form at the weekend. Click HERE to see the top rated roll call, or click HERE to get race cards & ratings for today's meetings.

Timeform preview an excellent weekend of racing, featuring action from Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton on Saturday, and Navan on Sunday......

Red Mills Chase day is one of the feature meetings of the season at Gowran and this Saturday's card promises to be informative with several Cheltenham contenders likely to be having their final prep run before the festival....

Timeform look back at a weekend featuring National Hunt racing from Musselburgh on Saturday, as well as mixed action on the all-weather, and some notable international results......

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Third Test Day Three Analysis: Ali takes game away from England

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Azhar Ali and Younis Khan, pictured, left Andrew Strauss with plenty to ponder

"England record’s in the fourth innings in Asia is, unsurprisingly, not good enough for the impossible."

Ed Hawkins eats a bit of humble pie over the scoring ability of Azhar Ali and pours cold water on any faint England hopes of an unlikely victory...

Yesterday the old master. Today the new master? Azhar Ali got a bit of a bad press from this column at the start of the series. Talented but ill-disciplined we reckoned as we overlooked him for top bat wagers. Taking a leaf from Younis Khan - who helped build Pakistan's advantage - he looked every inch the coming man.

On day three of the third Test between Pakistan and England at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium, he embarrassed England, taking the game away from them with staunch defence and no little class. His maiden 150 - and only his second Test century - underlined Pakistan's extraordinary production line of young talent.

It is worth pausing, for a moment, to wonder just how they do it. Ali is keeping the talented Umar Akmal out of the team while do not forget that they are without Mohammad Amir and Mohammad Asid, two of the finest, if not flawed, bowlers in the world.

Yet Pakistan still produce players. One wonders which other sides could cope with such a drain and hit back with a series victory over the No 1-ranked side in the world. And with a whitewash by the looks of it, too.

If Younis and Ali together laid the groundwork for Pakistan's monstrous lead, it was the youngster who went on to build its impregnability. England must be sore in body and mind. They can't get home fast enough, knowing they have been outplayed in three consecutive matches.

There could be more ignominy to come. Memories of their 72 all out humbling last time out will surely haunt them. Indeed, England record's in the fourth innings in Asia is, unsurprisingly, not good enough for the impossible.

Since 2000, they average 27 runs per wicket. It is a statistic which suggests that we should have been expecting an implosion at some stage.

And as if you didn't already know that England were cooked, there have been only 14 occasions in history when a side has made 320 or more in the fourth innings in Asia - and only three resulted in victories for the batting side.

As a gauge for how the innings runs market should play, the average all out fourth-innings total in Asia is 233 in the last two years.

Recommended Bet:
Pakistan to win at [1.46]

England's bowlers made a good start, then their batsman let them down before Younis Khan starred on day two. It all leaves Michael Vaughan feeling glum despite the fact that his match odds bet looks likely to come in......

Ed Hawkins marvels at Younis Khan's innings as Pakistan take firm control of the third Test. Meanwhile, our man recommends a lay bet on an England batsman whose technique leaves a lot to be desired......

Ed Hawkins was not impressed by the tourists, who showed exactly why the series has already been lost...

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Satellite Winner Takes Down Shooting Star Event

Poker News / Matthew Pitt / 21 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

From left ot right, Mike Sexton, Alan Sternberg and Vivek Rajkumar. Photo credit to the World Poker Tour

Although it may not have been as epic as Chris Moneymaker turning a $38 online satellite win into $2,500,000 when he won the 2003 World Series of Poker Main Event but Alan Sternberg's win at the Bay 101 Shooting Star World Poker Tour event will go down as one of the great success stories.

The Bay 101 Shooting Star Main Event is one of the toughest fields on the WPT circuit due to the heavy presence of well-known and respected professional players taking part but that did not seem to bother Sternberg who handled himself impeccably throughout the tournament despite finding himself on the end of a horrible bad beat early at the final table.

The six handed final table played for just under an hour, during which time 27 hands were played, before it lost its first player. With blinds at 12,000/24,000/4,000a Mike Matusow raised to 55,000 from the button and then called when Mike Sexton moved all in for 200,000 from the big blind. Sexton's KcQs was dominating the KhJd of Matuswo but by the river the board read Ah-8d-4s-2h-Jc and Sexton was sent to the rail to pick up $148,000.

Casey McCarrel followed him just three hands later, his AhQh losing to the JcTs of World Series of Poker bracelet winner Steven Kelly. The money went in preflop and Kelly spiked a ten on the flop, which held, to eliminate McCarrel in fifth place, worth $221,800.

Then on the 45th hand of the final table disaster struck for Sternberg. On a board reading As-6c-5h-Qd-Qc he called an all in bet from Vivek "Psyduck" Rajkumar whilst holding 6d6s for a full house, only for Rajkumar to flip over QhQs for rivered quads! Losing a 1,800,000 chip pot would be enough to tilt most players but Sternberg kept his cool, did not panic and sat patiently choosing his spots to accumulate chips

Whilst he was doing so Rajkumar was busy losing the chips he had won from Sternberg, though it took another 100 hands for him to do so. On hand #131 with blinds now at 30,000/60,000/10,000a Rajkumar found himself with just 750,000 chips and these found their way into the middle when he open shoved from the button. Kelly re-shoved and Matusow showed king-queen before folding. This didn't please Kelly as he also held king-queen and Matusow had two of his outs but Rajkumar had made the play with KdJc and was badly dominated. The final board ran out Ac-3c-2h-7d-Th and Rajkumar was eliminated in fourth place, worth $295,800.

Matusow followed suit another hour later as his dream of a first WPT title lay in ruins. The blinds had increased to 40,000/80,000/10,000a and when Sternberg raised to 180,000 on the button, Matusow moved all in for 1,380,000 from the big blind. Sternberg made the call and turned over KhQh, nicely in front of the lowly 9d2s of Matusow. A Qd-Tc-6d-4d-2h board was enough to bust Matusow in third place which netted him $369,800.

Going into heads-up there was only 50,000 chips difference between the two players but Sternberg quickly put some distance between them. On hand #182 he raised to 200,000 preflop, Kellyt made it 560,000 to play and Sternberg made the call. The flop came down Ts-8s-5d, Kelly bet 470,000 and Sternberg smooth called. The turn saw the 5h make an appearance and Kelly upped the ante by betting 1,100,000 and again Sternberg just called. The river was the Td and both players checked, Kelly turning over 9h7h, losing out to the 9c8c of Sternberg, who now lead 8,300,000 to 4,160,000.

Seven hands later and he won another 2,300,000 chips when he forced Kelly to fold on a Td-4h-3h-5c-Kh board to give himself a five-to-one chip lead. Despite the massive advantage it took 46 hands for Sternberg to dispatch of his opponent. Kelly min-raised to 240,000 which prompted Sternberg to move all in. Kelly made the call and looked set for a double up as his AhQh was much stronger than the Ts8c of his opponent. Both players made a pair on the Qd-8h-7h flop and when the turn was the 7s it looked like Kelly was back in business. However the dealer put out the 8c on the river to give Sternberg a full house and the win! $1,039,000 from a small satellite win will be one of the best ROIs ever seen!

Final table payouts

1: Alan Sternberg: $1,039,000
2: Steven Kelly: $595,300
3: Mike Matusow: $369,800
4: Vivek Rajkumar: $295,800
5: Casey McCarrel: $221,800
6: Mike Sexton: $148,000

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Cricket World Cup Betting: The travel takes its toll

Cricket World Cup / Frank Gregan / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Knackered and fed up. Andrew Strauss looks like he just just wants to go home.

"There's also a context issue. What is the most important tour or event? Where does the Ashes or a Twenty20 World Cup or hosting the South Africans figure in terms of importance? How big a deal is this upcoming World Cup?"

This has been an unusually long Tour for England and no sooner has it ended, the likes of Andrew Strauss and Kevin Pietersen fly off to the Sub-Continent for the World Cup. But should we feel sorry for these guys or envy them?

Right, that's the Australian tour done and dusted - what's next? Ah yes, just a small matter of the World Cup. The England players will be home for long enough to give the Missus their washing, and say "Hi kids, remember me, I'm your Dad," and then they'll be jetting off to the subcontinent with a monkey on their back, the 'never won a 50 over World Cup' tag that surfaces every four years.

They could hardly be going into this tournament in worse nick, the 6-1 mullering that they've just endured at the hands of the Aussies has got to have an effect on confidence. Or will it?

The schedule is such these days that our cricketers seem to move on from one major event to the next without time for reflection or contemplation and that must apply to the lows as well as the highs.

They performed admirably during the Test series, did a thoroughly professional job and were suitably rewarded with an Ashes win. That was the goal, even during the summer when England were hosting Pakistan, the talk was all about heading Down Under and putting it to Australia on their own patch. It was really quite sad that once England had won there was barely time for a decent hangover before they were back on One Day duty.

There was no time to celebrate, no time to sit back and put the feet up and feel that warm glow that comes from a job very well done. Instead three days after the Sydney Test they were in action against the Prime Minister's XI in Canberra and two days after that they played the first of the two Twenty20s in Adelaide and within a week they had arrived in Melbourne to start the first of the seven One Dayers. Phew! It really has been an exhausting schedule.

So should we be feeling sorry for our country's international cricketers? Not on your Nelly! They have a fantastic life and so they should. They have risen to the top of their profession and as such deserve all the perks that come their way. It really is a case of living the dream. Their remuneration used to be a thorny subject, they were not as well paid as players in the sexier sports but Twenty20 and the Indian Premier League has solved that problem.

It's not all about the money though, it's the venues. Tours to Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, Sri Lanka and the Caribbean. Wow - who invented cricket? Thomas Cook? Of course it's five star luxury whilst they're there, even the old 'Ring of Fire' can't put a damper on a tour these days! But they must have a few moments of dizziness where they wake up in the morning, pull back the curtains and think "where am I now?"

There's also a context issue. What is the most important tour or event? Where does the Ashes or a Twenty20 World Cup or hosting the South Africans figure in terms of importance? How big a deal is this upcoming World Cup?

It's a very big deal. Only football's World Cup and the Summer Olympics gets more media coverage. The competition attracts a television audience of over 2.2 billion viewers! Australia have dominated the competition for more than a decade, having won the last three World Cups. If England were to win the competition it would be a tremendous achievement, right up there with football's 1966!

There was a genuine belief before the ODIs Down Under that this could be England's year. The Aussies have shot that theory down in flames and consequently England are now [8.8] to back having previously been traded as short as [5.7]. I was one of those that took the shorter odds and I'm running for cover trying to find another team with which to hedge. India are too short at [4.2] so it came down to a coin toss between Pakistan at [10.5] and Sri Lanka at [6] with Pakistan getting the nod from a value angle.
England still have a chance and if they do prevail let's hope the players are given the opportunity to sit back, reflect and savour their historic achievement!

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