Third Test Day Three Analysis: Ali takes game away from England

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Azhar Ali and Younis Khan, pictured, left Andrew Strauss with plenty to ponder

"England record’s in the fourth innings in Asia is, unsurprisingly, not good enough for the impossible."

Ed Hawkins eats a bit of humble pie over the scoring ability of Azhar Ali and pours cold water on any faint England hopes of an unlikely victory...

Yesterday the old master. Today the new master? Azhar Ali got a bit of a bad press from this column at the start of the series. Talented but ill-disciplined we reckoned as we overlooked him for top bat wagers. Taking a leaf from Younis Khan - who helped build Pakistan's advantage - he looked every inch the coming man.

On day three of the third Test between Pakistan and England at the Dubai International Cricket Stadium, he embarrassed England, taking the game away from them with staunch defence and no little class. His maiden 150 - and only his second Test century - underlined Pakistan's extraordinary production line of young talent.

It is worth pausing, for a moment, to wonder just how they do it. Ali is keeping the talented Umar Akmal out of the team while do not forget that they are without Mohammad Amir and Mohammad Asid, two of the finest, if not flawed, bowlers in the world.

Yet Pakistan still produce players. One wonders which other sides could cope with such a drain and hit back with a series victory over the No 1-ranked side in the world. And with a whitewash by the looks of it, too.

If Younis and Ali together laid the groundwork for Pakistan's monstrous lead, it was the youngster who went on to build its impregnability. England must be sore in body and mind. They can't get home fast enough, knowing they have been outplayed in three consecutive matches.

There could be more ignominy to come. Memories of their 72 all out humbling last time out will surely haunt them. Indeed, England record's in the fourth innings in Asia is, unsurprisingly, not good enough for the impossible.

Since 2000, they average 27 runs per wicket. It is a statistic which suggests that we should have been expecting an implosion at some stage.

And as if you didn't already know that England were cooked, there have been only 14 occasions in history when a side has made 320 or more in the fourth innings in Asia - and only three resulted in victories for the batting side.

As a gauge for how the innings runs market should play, the average all out fourth-innings total in Asia is 233 in the last two years.

Recommended Bet:
Pakistan to win at [1.46]

England's bowlers made a good start, then their batsman let them down before Younis Khan starred on day two. It all leaves Michael Vaughan feeling glum despite the fact that his match odds bet looks likely to come in......

Ed Hawkins marvels at Younis Khan's innings as Pakistan take firm control of the third Test. Meanwhile, our man recommends a lay bet on an England batsman whose technique leaves a lot to be desired......

Ed Hawkins was not impressed by the tourists, who showed exactly why the series has already been lost...

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Pakistan v England, Day 3 Analysis: Prepare for twists

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 27 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Saeed Ajmal might be deadly on a fourth day wicket

"A chase of 175 on a wearing pitch with Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman whirling away will be tricky indeed"

Ed Hawkins says there could be more turns on day four as England look to get back into the series

So England would appear to be in the driving seat after day three of the second Test at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi. They are [1.49] for victory with Pakistan [3.75] and the draw a largely irrelevant [14.50].

The tourists, who have battled hard in this Test following their dismal showing in the first game, leaving many to believe it was surely a blip, trail by 55 runs with six wickets to claim.

England should win. Should. It is difficult to definitely say that they will, however, because we must respect the character of this game. It has been a capricious sort. We have been unable to confidently say how proceedings would pan out, in terms of one side dominating, ever since England's implosion from a position of strength on day two.

The key for England will be early wickets. And from that point of view the game has been consistent. In the first innings England rushed through the Pakistan tail after an overnight break as refreshed bowlers restricted Pakistan to only one more run.

A repeat is unlikely, of course, but Andrew Strauss and co will hope to pick up the remaining Pakistan batsmen for no more than 100 runs. Any more and England will be nervous. A chase of 175 on a wearing pitch with Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman whirling away will be tricky indeed.

In such a sentence we have a strategy for the denouement. There is the potential for classic back-and-lay scenarios in a tight chase, particularly as we already know that once partnerships - which are far from impossible - are broken there is an opportunity for another quick wicket. One brings two has been this Test's mantra.

There is work to be done until then, of course. And one would hope that a thrilling Test does not fizzle out with Pakistan falling by the wayside tomorrow. Much depends on Asad Shafiq and Azhar Ali. Adnan Akmal aside, there is precious little batting to come.

Looking ahead to a top England runscorer, it is difficult to get away from Jonathan Trott. A battle will be right up his street and we will forgive him his lazy shot in the first dig. Men to avoid are Strauss, Eoin Morgan and Kevin Pietersen.

Each appear to be in dire form. There is little one may be able to do betting-wise with the latter two but Strauss could be worth a lay for top bat, especially if England are chasing a small target.

No-one managed to correctly predict the number of runs scored on day three in the Michael Vaughan Run Chase game so we have a rollover on day three, with £1,500 now up for grabs.

Click here to play ahead of tomorrow's action.

The last hour and a half of day two really put the brakes on England's progress and facing Saeed Ajmal isn't going to get any easier. Batting last on this pitch may be like playing on a minefield and that...

Ed Hawkins is worried about England batting last at the Sheikh Zayed Stadioum after a topsy-turvy day...

Ed Hawkins says England are close to rediscovering their identity after taking charge in Abu Dhabi...

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