Manchester City v Barnsley: No stopping Citizens at this stage

With the chance to retain their league title all but over Mike Norman believes Manchester City will go all out for the only silverware available to them, starting with a simple victory on Saturday...

Man City v Barnsley
FA Cup QF - Saturday 17:30
Live on ESPN

They won't admit it, but everyone at Manchester City knows that the FA Cup is their only chance of silverware this season, and they couldn't have wished for a better tie than a home quarter-final against Championship strugglers Barnsley.

In almost a replica scenario to the previous round, City haven't played for a week, and it's another seven days before they are back in league action so there is absolutely no reason why Roberto Mancini won't play the strongest team available to him. However, it is expected that Mancini won't risk either Vincent Kompany or Sergio Aguero following recent injuries.

Barnsley boss David Flitcroft - whose brother Garry made over 140 appearances for Man City - has midfielder Stephen Dawson back from injury meaning he has virtually a full strength squad to choose from.

Current Form

Two draws and a surprising loss to Southampton last month effectively took City out of the title race. They've recovered in good fashion however to win their last two league games over Chelsea and Aston Villa without conceding a goal. And it's a similar story in the FA Cup. The Citizens have won all three ties in this year's competition without conceding, two of which were at home to Championship outfits.

I referred to Barnsley as Championship strugglers in my opening paragraph, and simply looking at the league table then that is what they most certainly are. But it was only a few weeks ago that I was referring to The Tykes as one of the country's most in-form clubs. The Yorkshire outfit were unbeaten in nine a few weeks ago, but it's no wins in three currently, possibly because of having one eye on this competition.

Match Odds & Half Time markets

You won't get rich at all backing the home side at just 1.152/13, and I'm sure there's been bigger shocks in the FA Cup than the one Barnsley - 26.025/1 to win on the day - would have to produce at the Etihad, but everything being equal it is absolutely impossible to envisage anything than a comfortable win for City.

Perhaps a better way to profit is to back Man City in the Half Time market at 1.42/5, collect your winnings, and re-assess the game during the interval. Alternatively you could simply back Man City/Man City at 1.4840/85 in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Reasons for the above recommendations are simply. Other than the obvious gulf in class between the two sides, Barnsley have trailed at half time in each of their last four games since their good run of form came to an end, whereas City were two goals to the good by half time in both their FA Cup victories over Championship clubs this season.

Correct Score

You can never be overly confident about a side scoring a plethora of goals, especially with the possibility of players taking their foot of the gas once a game is won. Having said that, I don't think we should be too worried on that score here.

City will almost certainly be at full strength, which in itself should make them too hot to handle for Barnsley, and they'll want to build as much confidence as possible as they aim to send out a warning to Manchester United that they're not giving up on the title just yet.

If City can make an early breakthrough - just as they did against Leeds in the previous round - then I fully expect them to go on and score four or five. The Any Unquoted option can be backed at 2.56/4 in this market.

First Goalscorer

With Aguero a major doubt, and Carlos Tevez having more 'off-field' problems the last few days, a chance is taken on Edin Dzeko to get the first goal of the game. The tall Bosnian has started eight of City's last 11 games, scoring a total of six goals, three of which rewarded First Goalscorer punters.

Dzeko is available to back at around 1.910/11 in the To Score market, which isn't a bad alternative, but if he starts then he has every chance of notching first at 4.47/2.

Recommended Bets

Back Any Unquoted Correct Score @ 2.56/4
Back Man City in Half Time market @ 1.42/5
Back Edin Dzeko First Goalscorer @ 4.47/2

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Weekend Review: Riverside takes to Ascot stage

Weekend Preview/Review / Timeform / 20 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Riverside Theatre winning the Betfair Ascot Chase.

"Riverside Theatre demonstrated that he retains all of his ability, jumping and travelling fluently..."

Timeform look back at a weekend featuring a winning return for Riverside Theatre in the Betfair Ascot Chase, a double for Donald McCain on the Ascot card and a battling victory for Giles Cross in Haydock's Grand National Trial...

Twelve months on from his last racecourse appearance, Riverside Theatre made a most impressive return to action to land back-to-back runnings of the Betfair Ascot Chase. A stress fracture of the pelvis enforced a year on the sidelines but Riverside Theatre demonstrated that he retains all of his ability, jumping and travelling fluently before being kept up to his work as the improving Medermit stuck on well.

Riverside Theatre, rated 171 by Timeform, will head to the Ryanair at the Cheltenham Festival with the strongest claims on form and, whilst his sole visit to Cheltenham resulted in a somewhat disappointing fifth in the Arkle in 2010, that effort can be put down to inexperience (just his third start over fences) and he would look the one to beat in the season's renewal, making his current price of [7.2] look incredibly tempting.

Another to enhance his Cheltenham claims was the Alan King-trained Invictus, who landed the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices' Chase. Having disappointed in the Dipper Novices' Chase at Cheltenham on his previous start, Invictus took the step up in trip in his stride to win readily.

Jumping much more fluently than at Cheltenham, Invictus quickened well to beat Bobs Worth by three lengths. However, he is essentially a speedier type than the runner-up and would not be sure to confirm the placings in the RSA on 3 lb worse terms. Invictus can currently be backed at [13.0] for the RSA, whilst Bobs Worth is available at [6.8]. A more suitable race for the winner could well be the Jewson, for which he is presently trading at [21.0].

Massini's Maguire, making just his ninth appearance over fences in a three-and-a-half-year timespan, showed himself still capable of smart form when beating Tullamore Dew by a head in the staying chase at Ascot. He may take some time to get over the exertions of Saturday's attritional contest, though he managed to highlight his Grand National claims.

Of more interest for that race, however, and currently available to back at [32.0] is the third-placed Cappa Bleu, who also filled that position in the Welsh National. The suspicion is that he may have been trained with Aintree in mind, so this was a promising effort on the whole.

Also on the Ascot card, Cholmondeley trainer Donald McCain landed a Saturday double with Super Duty and Bourne.

Super Duty is most certainly one to bear in mind for novice chasing next year, sure to be suited by further than two and a half miles in time, whilst Bourne, owned by the Timeform Betfair Racing Club, produced a very useful effort on his handicap debut with the promise of more to come given the likely strength of the form.

Moving North to Haydock, where the admirably tough and consistent Giles Cross won the Grand National Trial. Having finished as the runner-up in the Welsh National for the second consecutive year, Giles Cross was gaining his fifth career success under rules. The ten-year-old seemingly thrives on stamina sapping races of this ilk, and currently be backed at [29.0] for the Grand National, although prevailing ground conditions would likely be a factor in his participation.

Other winners of note on Haydock's card were Restless Harry, who seemed to bounce back after an unsuccessful stint novice chasing and two creditable and typically determined efforts behind Big Buck's, the Lucinda Russell-trained Brindisi Breeze (notched a fourth victory over hurdles and is available at [12.0] for the Albert Bartlett) and British debutant Une Artisite, previously trained in France, who stayed on well to deny High Samana after making a mistake at the final flight.

2010 Champion Hurdle winner Binocular very much thrust himself back into the 2012 reckoning, showing all of his old dash in winning Wincanton's Kingwell Hurdle. Currently trading at [8.8], Timeform rate him as the leading British-trained hope for the Champion Hurdle, with only the minor obstacle that is Hurricane Fly ([1.98]) to overcome.

The review of this weekend would not be complete without mentioning the terrific Black Caviar, who equalled her best Timeform rating of 135 when winning the Lightning Stakes. For more on her nineteenth consecutive victory, read Gary Crispe's review "Black Caviar equals career-best Timeform rating".

There was also some informative racing across the Irish Sea this weekend, at Gowran on Saturday and Navan on Sunday, with the likes of Rubi Light, Zaidpour and Mourad all advertising their Festival claims.
...........
Timeform ratings were in fine form at the weekend. Click HERE to see the top rated roll call, or click HERE to get race cards & ratings for today's meetings.

Timeform preview an excellent weekend of racing, featuring action from Ascot, Haydock and Wincanton on Saturday, and Navan on Sunday......

Red Mills Chase day is one of the feature meetings of the season at Gowran and this Saturday's card promises to be informative with several Cheltenham contenders likely to be having their final prep run before the festival....

Timeform look back at a weekend featuring National Hunt racing from Musselburgh on Saturday, as well as mixed action on the all-weather, and some notable international results......

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Tour de France Betting: Stage 15

Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 16 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mark Cavendish will perk up now the Pyrenees are behind him

"We can be confident that Cavendish has the stamina to build up to a fast finish in Montpellier today

After Jelle Vanendert's surprise win yesterday, Tobias Gourlay expects a more familiar face to lead the Tour home today

A serious new climber announced himself on the ride up to Plateau de Beille yesterday: Jelle Vanendert. Given a voice of his own by Omega Pharma Lotto after team leader Jurgen Van Den Broeck abandoned the race, there was a quiet statement of intent as he was second up Luz Ardiden on Thursday. This time he shouted his name from one of the rooftops of Europe.

Our man Frank Schleck opened one window of opportunity to lay him for a small profit, taking turns with brother Andy to attack the GC contenders, none of whom they could shake. Our other man, Roman Kreuziger - a [100.0] shot - showed himself not at all.

Thomas Voeckler's survival in the yellow jersey suggests that the Schlecks and Alberto Contador are not in the form of previous years, but the Frenchman should be shaken off in the Alps, where the gradients of the climbs are steeper and, if not, he will be beaten by all in the individual time-trial. If you don't mind laying bets at [15.0], you can oppose the Frenchman in the Winner market.

Stage 15 is for the sprinters, who have struggled through the Pyrenees in the autobus. Mark Cavendish is the favourite, of course. He is much smaller than his main rivals, Tyler Farrar and Andre Greipel, and we can be more confident that he has the stamina to build up to a fast finish in Montpellier today because he has made it to Paris in each of the last two Tours.

Best Bet: Back Mark Cavendish @ [1.77] to be Stage 15 Winner

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

Tobias Gourlay faces an uphill struggle trying to pick a fourth straight stage winner...

As the Tour makes a pilgrimage to Lourdes, Tobias Gourlay gives thanks to Samuel Sanchez and searches for another big winner...

Mark Cavendish got it right yesterday and so did Tobias Gourlay. Both must now avoid being swept up by the broom wagon as the Tour enters the Pyrenees...

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Tour de France Betting: Stage Nine

Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 10 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Casar Augustus: Francaise des Jeux's Sandy Casar won a tough Alpine stage last year

"Rigoberto Uran is Sky's best climber and today might be the day he launches his bid to be King of the Mountains"

Bradley Wiggins has abandoned the race and Sky are refocusing on different targets. Tobias Gourlay thinks he might have identified one of them

Alberto Contador and Samuel Sanchez, yesterday's picks, looked as good as anyone going up Super Besse yesterday. Unfortunately, one of the stage's early escapees, Rui Costa, survived the splintering of the breakaway and finished 15 seconds clear of the group containing all of the serious GC contenders.

Philippe Gilbert was second, improving his green-jersey prospects considerably. Our man is now the favourite and, after backing him at [4.4], we have the option to lay him for profit. The Belgian is the jolly for today's stage, however, and, if he wins, his price will shorten some more.

The ride from Issoire to the hilltop town of St Flour is up and down and up and down and up and down. And then up for the final kilometre, which suits Gilbert well. He has the motivation (the green jersey) to ride harder than ever before in a grand tour and the talent to stay with the GC contenders, who - like on the previous stage - will ignore him if he attacks on the final climb.

A breakaway from much further out looks the most likely way he will lose the stage, not least because Monday is a rest day and any escapees will get an extra 24 hours' recovery time. Quick Step's Sylvain Chavanel ([48.0]) would be an obvious candidate, but he has been riding weakly since crashing on stage five.

Thomas Voeckler must never be discounted, but this time he is the second favourite ([16.5]) and might be targeting Tuesday's less lumpy stage for his next audacious attack.

Rigoberto Uran is Sky's best climber and, in the aftermath of Bradley Wiggins' unfortunate demise, he is free from super-domestique duties and today might be the day he launches his bid for the consolation title of King of the Mountains.

The five wildcard teams, who need to show race organisers they deserve their place, have been involved in a lot of the breakaways so far. Francaise des Jeux have had four riders escape the peloton without success. Next in line to have a go is probably Sandy Casar, winner of a tough Alpine stage in last year's Tour.

Best Bet: Back Rigoberto Uran @ [46.0] to be Stage 9 Winner
Recommended Bet: Back Sandy Casar @ [60.0] to be Stage 9 Winner

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

Tobias Gourlay has identified two Spaniards with the talent and the need to do well on Saturday's bumpy ride from Aigurande to Super Besse...

Bradley Wiggins is out of the Tour de France after a massive pile-up at the end of stage seven....

Mark Cavendish has won in Chateauroux before and Tobias Gourlay is struggling for reasons to oppose the hot favourite for today's stage...

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Betfair Ascot Chase Betting: Theatre ready to take his place on the biggest stage

Ante-post / Harry Bowles / 17 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Riverside Theatre is fancied to prove too strong for Pride of Dulcote

Pride of Dulcote plainly remains with plenty of potential, but this will clearly demand more and, as more of a staying type, the drop back in trip is most unlikely to come as naturally to him as it will Riverside Theatre.

The National Hunt season has had more than a stop-start feel to it thus far, with all the abandonments of December rolling into January and then the unfortunate events at Newbury last weekend. Here's hoping that the rearranged meeting at the Berkshire track on Friday and Ascot's big card on Saturday signal the return of the show to the road.

The headline race is the twenty-one furlong Grade 1 Ascot Chase and the bulk of attention will be centred on Riverside Theatre and Pride of Dulcote representing the powerhouse stables of Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls respectively. Riverside Theatre has progressed plenty from his novice campaign in two starts at Kempton this season, winning a minor event in November before a fine second to stablemate Long Run in the rearranged King George last month. That looks the most convincing piece of recent form brought to the table here and he must have strong claims of gaining a first Grade 1 success with the shorter trip certainly no inconvenience.

Pride of Dulcote was a smart hurdler who suffered a splint problem after making a winning chasing debut in early-2009/10, but he came back to make it two from two over fences with a narrow defeat of Punchestowns at Newbury over Christmas. He plainly remains with plenty of potential, but this will clearly demand more and, as more of a staying type, the drop back in trip is most unlikely to come as naturally to him as it will Riverside Theatre.

After a brace of wins in the Peterborough Chase at Newbury and a Grade 3 at Cheltenham, Tartak has to come into the reckoning somewhere along the line, even if it's just for place purposes. He's responded well to the fitting of a tongue strap in getting back to winning ways and these are his conditions. Worthy of respect on that basis, though the suspicion is that he'll always prove vulnerable at the highest level.

Big Fella Thanks was a smart chaser for Paul Nicholls who was fourth in last season's Grand National (stamina seemingly just stretched) and will surely have that race as his target once again. Returned with good second in minor event at Carlisle before falling at the third in Hennessy. This race is sure to be used as a stepping stone to Aintree, so it remains to be seen if he's cherry ripe for the day.

With only Tataniano to look up to amongst last season's crop of novices, French Opera might be considered a leading player. There's just a suspicion that a tough campaign has left a mark of some kind after an uncharacteristically tame reappearance effort at Sandown last month. Clearly he can't be written off wholesale just yet, but it's certainly fair to say the yard appears to hold considerably stronger claims with Riverside Theatre.

Deep Purple won the Charlie Hall and Peterborough Chase last term and ran just as well when third in former race this season. Possibly amiss at Newbury next time and he's got a bit to prove now, something which is true to varying degrees of all of the remainder.

After serving notice that he can play a major role at the top table when runner-up in the King George, it's very difficult to overlook Riverside Theatre in this line-up, the substance to his form all the more appealing than the residual potential of Pride of Dulcote.

Recommendation

Back Riverside Theatre to win the Betfair Ascot Chase

The National Hunt season has had more than a stop-start feel to it thus far, with all the abandonments of December rolling into January and then the unfortunate events at Newbury last weekend. Here's hoping that the rearranged meeting at the Berkshire track on Friday and Ascot's big card on Saturday signal the return of the show to the road....

Haydock stages one of its flagship jumping days on Saturday, featuring three Grade 2 hurdles as well as the Grand National Trial, in which Silver By Nature bids to repeat last year's success......

The Cheltenham showpiece; jumps racing's Blue Riband; the Gold Cup: whatever you call it, the feature on the last day of the Cheltenham Festival remains the most prestigious race at the most prestigious jumps meeting in the world. With six weeks to go until the big day, Keith Melrose takes a look at the main contenders....

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