Paul Nicholls: The views on my three runners in France and Ireland today

15:05 Down Royal - Wonderful Charm

"This has been the plan for him for a while, and hopefully he will go well in a race that has cut up, though he meets three in-form rivals and he doesn't have that much in hand of two of them on official ratings."

Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls sends one raider to France and two to Ireland this afternoon for a couple of races that he has a great record in. Read the Ditcheat handler's exclusive thoughts on their chances here...

14:30 Down Royal - Rocky Creek

We have been lucky enough to win this race four times in recent seasons but this looks the hottest renewal for a long while. The likes of Gold Cup runner-up On His Own, Boston Bob and First Lieutenant are proven Grade 1 horses, while Nicky's Ma Filleule clearly has to be respected after running away with the Topham off a mark of 150 last season.

But hopefully Rocky Creek can take the step forward up to that level this season. He had his niggles and setbacks last season but he still delivered excellent performances in the Hennessy and Argento and - despite getting a case of ringworm before the race - he got us a bit excited when running so well for a long way in the Grand National, I can tell you!

But I just wondered that he wasn't finishing off his races, so we checked him out and gave him a breathing operation in the summer. It is a long season ahead and this is a proper race, but he is in good nick, he went well in a racecourse gallop with Silviniaco Conti at Chepstow last week, and does go well fresh, and this will tell us whether we go to the Hennessy with him or maybe aim higher.

14:45 Auteuil - Zarkandar

Take out Gemix and this Grade 1 lacks strength in depth, so for nearly £140,000 to the winner, we will happily take our chances. After beating The New One in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle in 2013, it was a little disappointing that he didn't get his head in front last season but he ran some excellent races, not least first time up at Ascot when failing by only five lengths to give Annie Power 11lb and when fourth in the World Hurdle.

And he ran ok in his two runs here over the summer. But he has had a good rest since and at one stage we were considering going for the Cesarewitch with him. However, that race came a touch too soon for him but he is in good order here. He runs in blinkers again and the services of Vincent Cheminaud, who is a good young French jockey who I think leads their jockeys' title by 20 or so winners.

Gemix is clearly the one to beat, and you'd have to give last year's winner Reve De Sivola a fair shout if he is at his best, but I think Zarkandar has a big chance. Three miles in heavy ground will be fine for him, he has a strong form chance and we recauterised his palate in the summer, which will hopefully help, too.

15:05 Down Royal - Wonderful Charm

If we have a good record in the JNwine.com Champion Chase then we have a pretty formidable one in this, as we have been lucky enough to win this race for the past six seasons. And we know that we are coming here with a fit and in-form horse with Wonderful Charm after his reappearance win in a good race at Newton Abbot.

I thought that I had him straight enough there, but it was still pleasing to see him get the job done, and I would have thought that would have brought him on again. This has been the plan for him for a while, and hopefully he will go well in a race that has cut up, though he meets three in-form rivals and he doesn't have that much in hand of two of them on official ratings.

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Six Nations Betting: Young England backs could upset France

General / Ralph Ellis / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can England's youngsters take the fight to France this Sunday?

Danny Care is in trouble again but, on the pitch, Ralph Ellis believes that English rugby could have something to celebrate this weekend...

Danny Care does not have a drink problem - at least not according to Stuart Lancaster. The Harlequins scrum-half, who should have been playing the same role for England, has just been nicked for his third alcohol-related misdemeanour in a matter of months. But Lancaster says his problems are about "making bad decisions" rather than because of a reliance on drink. You hope that England's interim manager is just being diplomatic in public, because if he really thinks that, then he's kidding himself as well as everybody else.

When I talked to Danny for Betfair's Big Interview at the start of the World Cup back in November, I thought he was a smashing young man. He dealt with his own injury, which had robbed him of the chance to play in New Zealand, with great humour, and he spoke with insight about the prospects for Martin Johnson's team. So I don't want to do him down now.

But the bottom line is that a professional athlete's idea of drinking should be all about water, energy drinks and rehydration - and not necking so much booze that you get caught short in a taxi on the way home. When Care was arrested for being drunk and disorderly back in December it might have been a single aberration. A drink driving offence on New Year's Day should really have told him he had to change. Three times says there's an underlying problem.
What the Quins star clearly needs is some care with a small 'c', and some education and you hope that behind the public words that is exactly what will happen. One of Lancaster's key moves when he took charge was to tackle the issue that elite sport and excessive alcohol don't mix.

One thing he has got right is warning Care that there are now three scrum-halves in front of him and the only man who can change that pecking order is the one who has let himself fall so far down the rankings.

It will be a vital position to get right in Paris this Sunday. The return of Morgan Parra to his natural role for France means England's number nine will be fully tested. But Lee Dickson was excellent in the early part of the Twickenham clash with Wales, and showed there could be great potential in a budding partnership with Saracens' imaginative fly-half Owen Farrell.

Having backed England for the Twickenham game, I laid them in running - which was a chicken thing to do but ultimately proved a good decision. I bet Lancaster wished he'd been able to press a "cash out now" button half-way through that game!

England are [3.75] to win on Sunday and that has to be value, even if it is only a back to lay bet again. France weren't all that impressive against Ireland, whatever the merits of their second-half comeback. And if Lancaster's new half-back pairing can function as effectively again then there's definitely the potential to unleash the backs. Who knows? They might even open some space for Chris Ashton to rediscover his flair. But as for drinking to celebrate - let's leave that to the fans.

Five things you might not know about Morgan Parra
1. Born November 1988 in Metz, France, his electrician dad Antonio is Portuguese but had moved to France to take a part-time job coaching Lorraine's rugby team. Mother Valerie is a teacher in a home for the mentally handicapped.

2. Morgan was four when he first played rugby at Metz. Spotted for his talent, he was brought into the French academy system and spent two years at their national rugby centre at Marcoussis, as well as winning a French Under21 Championship title with CSBJ.

3. French rules forbid anybody playing senior rugby until the age of 18 - Parra was three days past his birthday when he made his debut for Bourgoin in a Top 14 match against Agen. Bourgoin won 31-18.

4. When he made his senior international debut in February 2008 against Scotland made him the 11th youngest ever to appear for the country.

5. He's training part-time to become an architect when he finishes playing - and has designed his own house which he is currently having built.

The draw between France and Ireland was backed at [42.0] on Betfair but what does the result mean for the rest of the tournament? And can England take advantage of France's patchy defence next weekend? Richard O'Hagan reports....

France and Ireland produce a draw in Paris to hand Wales the Six Nations initiative......

Richard O'Hagan looks back at what happened this weekend and what might happen in the remaining matches of the tournament, which Wales are now the strong favourites to win....

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Six Nations Betting: Will Greenwood on France v Ireland

Match Previews / Will Greenwood / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Greenwood does not have fond memories of this lot

"I envisage France prevailing by 10-13 points so the safe bet is to back France -8.5 points at [2.14]."

Will Greenwood followers are enjoying considerable profits this Six Nations. So you should probably follow his advice when France and Ireland meet for their rescheduled match in Paris this Sunday.

Ireland are really up against it this Sunday. It's impossible to legislate for last minute postponements and, while both France and Ireland are now involved in four consecutive grueling match weekends, the away side face a gargantuan task in Paris.

Perhaps Declan Kidney's men played too much in their own half last weekend but that's the way to beat Italy. France and England both had to be patient before breaking down the Azzurri and Ireland took their opportunities well after the break. Their 42-10 win blew away a few cobwebs.

But it's backs against the wall time on Sunday. Paris is a horrible place for visiting teams. I admire French rugby, on its good days at least, they've made an inestimable contribution to club competition and Philip Saint-Andre has the makings of a very good team. However, while I appreciate that these are delicate times for Anglo-French relations, there are several reasons why playing in Paris is, frankly, merde.

Never underestimate the disorientating effect of competing in a foreign culture. Minor details, such as the food, driving on the wrong side of the road, put you ill at ease. Stade de France is a strange, enervating arena, where 90,000 French fans look at you as though you're not worthy of being on the pitch. Fair play to them, they know how to undermine opponents, but banter in the stands and on the touchline gets lost in translation and the atmosphere is cold, cold, cold.

You might have guessed that I never won in Paris. I was part of an England team that lost there on three occasions - 24-17, 20-15, 24-21 - and I was out injured when we silenced the French fans in 2000. That same year, incidentally, Ireland achieved their last win in the City of Light as Brian O'Driscoll scored a hat-trick in a 25-27 thriller.

In those days, teams scored points even when losing to France. Italy managed 12 here in round one and Scotland scored a couple of tries against France last weekend but Les Bleus were in second gear in both matches. I anticipate ruthlessness from France. There's been absolutely nothing wrong with their attack so far but I sense that they would relish a big victory. The loss of Maxime Medard is a blow but the march to Cardiff for what should be a Grand Slam decider would benefit from momentum. I expect Wesley Fofana and Vincent Clerc to come flying out of the blocks on Sunday so I'll back an early try.

Betfair have got it spot on with their 12.5 margin line and I'm struggling to choose which side to put my money on. I was right to back Ireland to go over and France under last week but I may have to swerve this market. Three weeks ago, I thought France would win by a big score but I sense that Ireland could be more resolute this time. I envisage France prevailing by 10-13 points so the safe bet is to back France -8.5 points at [2.14].

Recommended Bets
3pts Back France-8.5 @ [2.14]
3pts Back France/France in the half-time/full-time market @ [1.81]
1pt Back 11-20 mins first try odds @ [2.54]

Geoffrey Riddle shares Will Greenwood's view that France should win and win well against Ireland in Paris on Sunday. Our man is also backing a certain French winger to terrorise the visitors......

Geoffrey Riddle believes that one day it will all click for Andy Robinson's Scotland - and the stats back him up - but whether that will happen on Sunday against France is another matter....

Geoffrey Riddle assesses the stats to see if England can upset the odds against a rampant Wales ......

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Six Nations Stat Attack: France v Ireland

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Vincent Clerc has a superb record against Ireland

"France should win this match, and win it well and they look an excellent investment at [1.4]... "

Geoffrey Riddle shares Will Greenwood's view that France should win and win well against Ireland in Paris on Sunday. Our man is also backing a certain French winger to terrorise the visitors...

Stat attack

• Since the IRB world rankings were launched in 2003, France have never enjoyed a greater margin of superiority in the rankings when hosting Ireland in Paris.

• Ireland have won just once in Paris since 1972 and of those 21 matches in the French capital Ireland would have been losers with a seven-point start 15 times. A Brian O'Driscoll hat-trick set up a famous Irish victory in 2000 but the centre is out injured.

• France have led at half-time in seven of their last eight matches in all competitions in Paris against Ireland. You have to go back to 2009 when New Zealand played in Paris in the autumn for the last time Les Bleus trailed at half-time at home.

• France have scored the first try of the match in the last seven matches against Ireland.

• France have won nine consecutive games at the Stade de France, a run of wins stretching back to their 24-13 defeat at the hands of England in 2008

• Ireland have been losers in the main match handicap in five of their last six road matches in the Six Nations.

• Vincent Clerc represents France's most potent attacking threat against Ireland, having scored five times in his six Championship appearances against them.

• France coach Philippe Saint-André has made two changes to the side that defeated Scotland 17-23 at Murrayfield. Clement Poitrenaud makes a timely return to the full back spot after injury ruled Maxime Medard out of this weekend's clash. Meanwhile Clermont Auvergne flanker Julien Bonnaire is named at blindside wing-forward, with Imanol Harinordoquyswitching to No.8. He replaces Toulouse No.8 Louis Picamoles, who drops to the bench.

• Declan Kidney has adopted to keep the same starting line-up who beat Italy 42-10 at the Aviva Stadium, and the same XV that was originally picked to face France for the postponed game three weeks ago.

Preview

France were considered favourites over Ireland by nine to ten points before the farcical situation which saw the match called off at the 11th hour three weeks ago. Now, after Ireland's thumping win over Italy and France's victory in Edinburgh, the layers have shaved a point or two off the match handicap with France enjoying just a seven-point deficit with some layers in the betting village.

Form is obviously subjective, but according to the IRB rankings system, Ireland have not been this poor since Declan Kidney picked up the pieces from Eddie O'Sullivan before moulding the squad into a Grand Slam winning side in the 2008-09 season.

France enjoy one of their biggest advantages since the Six Nations was formed in 2000 with regards to the IRB rankings and in my database I have found 70 matches of a similar nature which have taken place in that time frame.

There are 46 home teams that won by more than seven points in that sample, with the average points differential standing at 14 in the 70 matches overall. France should win this match, and win it well and they look an excellent investment at [1.4] on Betfair, which filters down to the subsidiary markets.

France have an exceptional record against Ireland at home, scoring the opening try in the last seven encounters and although Kidney's side are one of the better teams in the tournament away from home, France look too strong and should be in front at half-time and full-time.

Ireland continue to operate without the ageing magic of Brian O'Driscoll, but France's most potent attacking weapon still takes the field.

The trend in this year's tournament is that backs are scoring all the tries - Tom Court, Rory Best and Sergio Parisse are the only forwards to have scored so far - and Wesley Forfana, the France centre, has confidently taken the step up from Heineken Cup rugby to international level. His tries and all-round game have helped France immeasurably and he can take some of the attention off team-mate Vincent Clerc, who has a sublime scoring record against the Irish over the years, scoring over half of his tries in the tournament against Ireland.

Recommended Bet
3pt Back France @ [1.4]
2pts Back France to win half-time/full-time @ [1.89]
1pt Back Vincent Clerc to score a try @ [2.46]

Will Greenwood followers are enjoying considerable profits this Six Nations. So you should probably follow his advice when France and Ireland meet for their rescheduled match in Paris this Sunday....

Geoffrey Riddle believes that one day it will all click for Andy Robinson's Scotland - and the stats back him up - but whether that will happen on Sunday against France is another matter....

Geoffrey Riddle assesses the stats to see if England can upset the odds against a rampant Wales ......

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Ireland will beat France

General / The Betfair Contrarian / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ireland need Jonathan Sexton to be at his best if the Contrarian's bet is to come in

"Ireland reacted to all of their previous five Six Nations reverses (and nine of their last ten ) with victories; France and England (twice) were among those to feel their wrath in that stretch."

After success last week backing the New York Giants in the Super Bowl, the Contrarian is confident of following it up with a rugby triumph. He's spotted Ireland at a massive [4.6] to win away to France in the Six Nations on Saturday, and thinks that there's a formidable case for backing them despite their poor record in Paris...

France are without their kicking king

Ireland couldn't have asked for a bigger boost in the build-up to Saturday's encounter than the news that France's chief kicker Dimitri Yachvili will sit it out with a back injury. The experienced scrum-half was their top points scorer at last year's World Cup, racking up an impressive tally of 39, and carried that form into their Six Nations opener against Italy, in which his ten-point haul accounted for a third of their overall total in the match. The Biarritz star is indeed so prolific that he was flagged up by Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood as his pre-tournament fancy to be top points scorer, so his likely replacement on kicking duties, Morgan Parra, has some hefty boots to fill.

Their World Cup hangover is yet to kick in

The Contrarian has discussed before the frequency with which Europe's top World Cup performers follow the feat with a shambolic Six Nations campaign, and after reaching the final in New Zealand, this France side are on course to become the latest high-profile flops. The last time that Les Bleus were World Cup runners-up was in 1999 and a few months later they lost two Six Nations home games, one of which as you've probably guessed came against Ireland. New coach Philippe Saint-Andre was victorious in his first match last week, though little can be read into that win given that it came at home to Italy, who have finished bottom of the last four editions and tasted defeat in 14 of their last 16 outings in the competition.

Might trick me once...

Whereas France got their Six Nations challenge off to a much-anticipated winning start, Ireland were beaten 21-23 by Wales in Dublin in a tie that they were leading with two minutes to go. However, don't expect them to dwell on that setback or give up on top spot with four fixtures still to play. Ireland have taken the title just once this century, compared to France's five, England's four and Wales' two, but they have the second best overall record in that period, thanks in part to their ability to recover from any setback. They reacted to all of their previous five Six Nations reverses (and nine of their last ten ) with victories; France and England (twice) were among those to feel their wrath in that stretch.

Ireland prefer life on the road

That potentially costly defeat to Wales was Ireland's third in four Six Nations home games, the move to the Aviva Stadium evidently not having had the desired effect. The flip side of that alarming trend is that a lot of their most inspiring work is produced on their travels, where they have won six of their last eight in the Six Nations. Recent results away to Les Bleus haven't been as uplifting, though encouragement can be found in the fact that they are getting closer. Declan Kidney's team restricted them to only one try last year in Bordeaux compared to a combined 24 on their six prior visits. They suffered a 19-12 loss on that occasion, but a whopping 14 of those French points were provided by absentee Yachvili.

Ralph Ellis was mightily impressed by the way Stuart Lancaster's young England held off Scotland on Saturday. Now our man is backing the Red Rose to triumph over Italy......

Round one of the Six Nations is over, so what have we learned about the sides and how should results inform next weekend's bets? Richard O'Hagan reports....

Dream start for Stuart Lancaster's inexperienced team as Scotland are left to rue errors and indecisiveness once again......

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Betfair Video: Will Greenwood on England v France

General / Maxliu / 05 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Follow Will's tips on Betting.Betfair

Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood explains why he's backing England to inflict more World Cup misery on France as he prepares to fly out to New Zealand...

Will Greenwood is confident that England can beat France in Saturday's Rugby World Cup quarter-final. The ex-England centre, who was part of the winning team in 2003, believes that Martin Johnson's men could defeat Les Bleus by over 12 points as long as it doesn't rain in Auckland when the team's meet.

He also explains why Ireland v Wales is too close to call and why New Zealand are still the team to beat. Make sure you read Will's match previews on Friday but, in the mean time, check out the video.

O'Driscoll and co. put the Red Rose to the sword in with an indominatable performance that leaves Johnson soul-seraching....

Dan Fitch takes a look at the top talent that will be sitting in the stands during the Six Nations....

Scotland have lost all three Six Nations games but they're value to topple boring England on Saturday evening, says Ralph Ellis...

As we approach the half-way stage of proceedings Paul Moon gives us his views on what he's seen so far and tells us why France can win the Grand Slam whilst a much-improved Italy will once again have to settle...

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Tour de France Betting: Stage 15

Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 16 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mark Cavendish will perk up now the Pyrenees are behind him

"We can be confident that Cavendish has the stamina to build up to a fast finish in Montpellier today

After Jelle Vanendert's surprise win yesterday, Tobias Gourlay expects a more familiar face to lead the Tour home today

A serious new climber announced himself on the ride up to Plateau de Beille yesterday: Jelle Vanendert. Given a voice of his own by Omega Pharma Lotto after team leader Jurgen Van Den Broeck abandoned the race, there was a quiet statement of intent as he was second up Luz Ardiden on Thursday. This time he shouted his name from one of the rooftops of Europe.

Our man Frank Schleck opened one window of opportunity to lay him for a small profit, taking turns with brother Andy to attack the GC contenders, none of whom they could shake. Our other man, Roman Kreuziger - a [100.0] shot - showed himself not at all.

Thomas Voeckler's survival in the yellow jersey suggests that the Schlecks and Alberto Contador are not in the form of previous years, but the Frenchman should be shaken off in the Alps, where the gradients of the climbs are steeper and, if not, he will be beaten by all in the individual time-trial. If you don't mind laying bets at [15.0], you can oppose the Frenchman in the Winner market.

Stage 15 is for the sprinters, who have struggled through the Pyrenees in the autobus. Mark Cavendish is the favourite, of course. He is much smaller than his main rivals, Tyler Farrar and Andre Greipel, and we can be more confident that he has the stamina to build up to a fast finish in Montpellier today because he has made it to Paris in each of the last two Tours.

Best Bet: Back Mark Cavendish @ [1.77] to be Stage 15 Winner

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

Tobias Gourlay faces an uphill struggle trying to pick a fourth straight stage winner...

As the Tour makes a pilgrimage to Lourdes, Tobias Gourlay gives thanks to Samuel Sanchez and searches for another big winner...

Mark Cavendish got it right yesterday and so did Tobias Gourlay. Both must now avoid being swept up by the broom wagon as the Tour enters the Pyrenees...

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Tour de France Betting: Stage Nine

Tour De France / Tobias Gourlay / 10 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Casar Augustus: Francaise des Jeux's Sandy Casar won a tough Alpine stage last year

"Rigoberto Uran is Sky's best climber and today might be the day he launches his bid to be King of the Mountains"

Bradley Wiggins has abandoned the race and Sky are refocusing on different targets. Tobias Gourlay thinks he might have identified one of them

Alberto Contador and Samuel Sanchez, yesterday's picks, looked as good as anyone going up Super Besse yesterday. Unfortunately, one of the stage's early escapees, Rui Costa, survived the splintering of the breakaway and finished 15 seconds clear of the group containing all of the serious GC contenders.

Philippe Gilbert was second, improving his green-jersey prospects considerably. Our man is now the favourite and, after backing him at [4.4], we have the option to lay him for profit. The Belgian is the jolly for today's stage, however, and, if he wins, his price will shorten some more.

The ride from Issoire to the hilltop town of St Flour is up and down and up and down and up and down. And then up for the final kilometre, which suits Gilbert well. He has the motivation (the green jersey) to ride harder than ever before in a grand tour and the talent to stay with the GC contenders, who - like on the previous stage - will ignore him if he attacks on the final climb.

A breakaway from much further out looks the most likely way he will lose the stage, not least because Monday is a rest day and any escapees will get an extra 24 hours' recovery time. Quick Step's Sylvain Chavanel ([48.0]) would be an obvious candidate, but he has been riding weakly since crashing on stage five.

Thomas Voeckler must never be discounted, but this time he is the second favourite ([16.5]) and might be targeting Tuesday's less lumpy stage for his next audacious attack.

Rigoberto Uran is Sky's best climber and, in the aftermath of Bradley Wiggins' unfortunate demise, he is free from super-domestique duties and today might be the day he launches his bid for the consolation title of King of the Mountains.

The five wildcard teams, who need to show race organisers they deserve their place, have been involved in a lot of the breakaways so far. Francaise des Jeux have had four riders escape the peloton without success. Next in line to have a go is probably Sandy Casar, winner of a tough Alpine stage in last year's Tour.

Best Bet: Back Rigoberto Uran @ [46.0] to be Stage 9 Winner
Recommended Bet: Back Sandy Casar @ [60.0] to be Stage 9 Winner

Follow Tobias on Twitter: @tobiasgourlay

Tobias Gourlay has identified two Spaniards with the talent and the need to do well on Saturday's bumpy ride from Aigurande to Super Besse...

Bradley Wiggins is out of the Tour de France after a massive pile-up at the end of stage seven....

Mark Cavendish has won in Chateauroux before and Tobias Gourlay is struggling for reasons to oppose the hot favourite for today's stage...

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Alberto Contador won't win the Tour de France

Tour De France / The Betfair Contrarian / 27 June 2011 / 1 Comments

Contador's off field problems give him a mountain to climb if he is to win a fourth Tour

"Andy Schleck has closed the gap consistently by improving at a relentless pace, and there is little ground left to make up this year in order to triumph, with Contador’s 2010 winning margin the fifth slimmest in the 108-year history of the event."

The latest super Spaniard in the saddle is odds-on to beat the near 200-strong field home but that's a price you should be laying, says the Betfair Contrarian

Back when Lance Armstrong was in his pomp the Contrarian was instead busy predicting that DJ Pied Piper would be the best thing to happen to music since Spandau Ballet, and so never had the slightly intimidating pleasure of writing "Juan Pelota" off. This latest assignment feels just as daunting, however, as Alberto Contador has triumphed on the last three occasions that he has contested the Tour de France, yet the Contrarian reckons you should lay him for a fourth title at [1.71]. Here's why...

Contador has a monumental distraction...
For years, the Tour de France's appeal has been tarnished by doping suspicions and the problem won't be eradicated any time soon given that the Tour's holder is competing in the shadow of a failed drugs test in last year's edition. He was later banned because his sample was found to contain traces of clenbuterol, only to be controversially cleared by the Spanish authorities, who accepted his claim that the low concentration levels made food contamination the likely source. The Union Cycliste International were understandably furious and turned to the Court of Arbitration, though in a twist that does the sport's credibility no favours, the case was put back from June, allowing him to compete. Yet while Contador gets the opportunity to fight for a fourth win, the whispering campaign that will accompany his involvement and worries about the upcoming court showdown are sure to compromise his performance.

...and has shown signs of suffering
Contador's performance in the Volta ao Algarve and Vuelta a Castilla y Leon, two events that he won in 2010, provide further evidence that off-road troubles are affecting his cycling. This time round he finished a distant fourth in Portugal and all the way back in 24th in his homeland, where he was hampered by several punctures.

Schleck is a worthy adversary
Now that they no longer enter the Eurovision Song Contest, in which they impressively remain the joint-second most successful nation, Luxembourg need to look elsewhere for opportunities to shine on a global stage. The Tour de France is an obvious substitute, given that they have provided four winners in the highlight of the cycling calendar. The last of those was Charly Gaul in 1958 but it looks to be a matter of time before 26-year-old Andy Schleck becomes the fifth, and there is no reason why this won't prove to be his year at [3.5]. He fared better in his first appearance in the race than his main rival, ranking 12th to the Spaniard's 31st, and has built on that with two second-placed finishes, claiming the white jersey that is awarded to the best young rider on all three occasions.

The gap is narrower than ever
On Schleck's Tour de France debut in 2008, he finished over 11 minutes behind champion Carlos Sastre (Contador didn't participate in the race) despite topping the Young Riders' Classification, yet 12 months later he was within five minutes of Contador as the latter claimed his second title, before trailing by only 39 seconds as El Pistolero completed his hat-trick last July. Those figures illustrate that Schleck has closed the gap consistently by improving at a relentless pace, and there is little ground left to make up this year in order to triumph, with Contador's 2010 winning margin the fifth slimmest in the 108-year history of the event. It is no surprise therefore that Schleck's Leopard Trek manager Brian Nygaard is confident of his star turn delivering.

Mark Cavendish is chasing a fifth stage win of the 2010 Tour around Paris, just like Tobias Gourlay....

Spartacus won't be defying any odds if he records another victory today, says Tobias Gourlay....

The sprinters think it's their turn at the front now, but there might still be a baroudeur or two with other ideas, warns Tobias Gourlay....

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Weekend Review: Derby weekend in Britain and France

Weekend Preview/Review / Timeform / 06 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Reliable Man comes out on top in Sunday's Prix du Jockey-Club

"Pour Moi will reportedly now be given a traditional French Arc preparation, with the Prix Niel his next port of call."

Timeform look back at the weekend's Classic action on both sides of the Channel

For the first time since 1976, the Derby went to France courtesy of the Andre Fabre-trained Pour Moi, who came with a strong run under Mickael Barzalona to deny Treasure Beach by a head with the Royal-owned favourite Carlton House a further three quarters of a length back in third. For a full treatment of the handicapping of this year's Derby this week's Handicappers' Corner. In terms of future targets, Pour Moi will reportedly now be given a traditional French Arc preparation, with the Prix Niel his next port of call. Pour Moi is now the [5.5] favourite for the Arc, ahead of So You Think ([6.8]) and last year's winner Workforce ([7.0]).

Other interesting performances at Epsom on Saturday include that of Mark Johnston's two-year-old colt Fulbright, who now has the Coventry at Royal Ascot on his agenda after success in the listed Woodcote Stakes. In the five-furlong Dash, Captain Dunne put up a career-best performance to win under top weight, while the Group 3 Diomed Stakes went the way of the Marco Botti-trained Fanunalter.

There was plenty of good racing away from Epsom on Saturday, the best of it arguably taking place at Musselburgh where the most noteworthy performance was that of the David Brown-trained two-year-old colt Frederick Engels, who will be one to take seriously in either the Norfolk or the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot after demolishing his rivals in the five-furlong minor event.

Sunday's best racing took place at Chantilly where the Group 1 Prix du Jockey-Club went the way of Alain de Royer-Dupre's Reliable Man. The John Gosden-trained Colombian fared the best of the British and Irish contingent in fourth, while both Roderic O'Connor and Casamento were below form in eighth and ninth respectively. Reliable Man is now the second most prominent French-trained horse in the Arc betting at [15.5] behind Baraan ([14.5]), who did very well to finish third in the Jockey-Club after forfeiting lots of ground with a slow start.

Timeform run the rule over the racing on Derby weekend......

It was quiet on the homefront this weekend, with the Group 3 Timeform Jury Stakes the highlight at Haydock on Saturday, but there was also quality action at Leopardstown on Sunday. Timeform look back.......

Timeform look over this weekend's racing, the pick of which is the Jury Stakes at Haydock on Saturday......

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why France won't win Eurovision

Eurovision Song Contest / The Betfair Contrarian / 11 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

You heard it here first - Amaury Vassili will not be smiling on Saturday night

"France haven’t won since 1977 and haven’t even hit the podium positions since 1991, while their results have grown progressively worse, with just one top-ten finish in eight years and three of their last six attempts landing in the bottom four."

They're the [2.96] favourites but the stats say Europe will deliver a stern 'non' to the French on Saturday night, says the Betfair Contrarian

The Eurovision Song Contest in the 21st century has largely been a tale of first-time winners and Big Four (United Kingdom, Germany, France and Spain) failure, but Germany's 2010 victory appears to have changed the landscape. Indeed, the top of this year's winner market looks most unfamiliar, with France, Ireland (Jedward) and the UK (Blue) leading the way. The Contrarian wisely steered punters away from last year's favourites Azerbaijan though, and this year recommends giving operatic French entry "Sognu" the elbow this time at [2.98]...

"Sognu" is certain to divide opinion
Twenty-one-year-old tenor Amaury Vassili's "Sognu" has received huge support from Betfair punters, currently trading at [2.96] to triumph having at one point been backed at [250.0]. It's expected to be a big hit with the judges that have a 50 per cent weighting in the vote for each nation, however the other half is determined by the viewing public, and how they will respond to a highbrow submission which varies drastically from the standard Eurovision fare is unclear, with the majority of modern winners either being simple ballads, high-tempo pop and occasionally rock that doesn't take itself too seriously.

It's a good song, but it's still France!
Several recent French Eurovision Song Contest entries have quite rightly been derided, however there is no disputing that this year's offering is their most promising in ages, with the decision to go down the opera route ensuring that it will stand out from the crowd. Even so, a good track is no guarantee of success, especially when your record in the competition is as dire as France's. They haven't won since 1977 and haven't even hit the podium positions since 1991, while their results have grown progressively worse, with just one top-ten finish in eight years and three of their last six attempts landing in the bottom four.

And the draw has been very unkind
France's call to pick a song that differs from almost everything else on the show is perhaps influenced by the belief that something unique is more likely to be remembered, so their strategy has been clearly compromised by the draw forcing them to be the 11th of the 25 challengers on stage, and perform right before equally left-field Italian choice "Follia d'amore". The last six finals have all been won by one of the eight closing acts, while the middle of the pack is the worst place to be, with only one of the 90 acts drawn in positions nine to 17 over the last decade finishing first.

They've got the language decision all wrong
Sebastien Tellier's 2008 effort "Divine" was a solid Eurovision song produced by Daft Punk's Guy-Manuel de Homem-Christo, yet it divided opinion in France due to the inclusion of some English lyrics. Much to French vexation, English is undeniably now the language of Eurovision, having been the tongue adopted by 11 of the last 12 winners. In 2010, all of the seven highest scorers sung in English, while the finalists that opted for another dialect wound up in an average place of 13th. So though the decision to abandon French seems shrewd, singing in Corsican on "Sognu" might not be the wisest of choices.

There are safer options available at bigger prices
Female solo stars have claimed top spot in six of the last eight years so the absence of any in the top four of the market is begging to be exploited. Last year's champion Lena - tipped by the Contrarian at [5.8] on that occasion - is back to defend her crown on home soil for Germany [21.0] and while "Taken by a Stranger" isn't as catchy as "Satellite", she has a huge fanbase and was clearly liked by the judges. Another intriguing contender is Getter Jaidi of Estonia [14.0], whose song "Rockefeller Street" should breeze through the second semi-final.

For an alternative take on this year's Eurovision Song Contest please follow @betfairpoker twitter feed.

We will be running Eurovision themed free roll this Saturday at 7pm UK time (Password: Big Carlos)

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Second to Last Stop for France Poker Tour

Marseille will be the next and almost final stop of the 2011 France Poker Tour. The action will kick off during Easter Weekend. Poker pros and poker players will gather for the event, hoping to win a seat to the sixth grand final of the poker championship of France. The final event will take place at the Aviation Club de Paris, a popular destination venue for poker tours. The grand final of the France Poker Tour will have a prize pool of € 1 million.

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Six Nations Betting Preview: Italy v France

Match Previews / Stuart Jones / 10 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Exciting winger Maxime Nedard will relish playing against Italy

"It may take France a while to break Italy down but tries should come in the second half as gaps begin to appear in the home side's defence."

France have an excellent record in the Italian capital but could the home side pull off a shock this Saturday? Stuart Jones selects the best bets.

History suggests that France should have few problems putting defeat to England behind them in Rome this Saturday. The French cruised to a 46-20 victory over Italy last year in Paris, but their record in the Eternal City is even more impressive, with victories by 42, 36 and 43 points in recent years.

While the Italians have proved capable of competing with the likes of Scotland and Wales, they rarely manage to stop France from running up a big score. While we all know that records are there to be broken, it will take a huge turnaround in form to put the Italians in with a chance.

The problem for Italy is that they simply cannot handle any side that attacks them efficiently in the wide areas. Time and again their forwards put in a solid display in the middle of the pitch, but as soon as the game breaks down they start to unravel. Barring superstar captain Sergio Parisse, the forwards are uncomfortable outside of their basic remit of hitting scrums, line-outs and rucks. This in turn puts more pressure on a backline lacking individual quality and, with Luciano Orquera back in the number ten slot, the French will relish the prospect of targeting such a sucpect defender.

The French were stifled by a muscular and organised defence in the last round against a very effective, if not particularly explosive, England side. They have often struggled against the sheer size and brute force of England, but nearly always come back to run up big scores against weaker sides. That's what I expect to happen here.

The French backline, including the mercurial talents of Maxime Medard and Vincent Clerc, plus the solidity of Aurelien Rougerie and Yannick Jauzion, should run amok against their Italian counterparts. With a tight-five that will easily be a match for the Italian's strongest area, and a back-row that has a good mix of brute force and intelligence, I expect the French to provide plenty of ball for their excellent decision-makers at nine and ten. It may take a while for them to wear Italy down, but tries should come in the second half as gaps begin to appear in the Italian defence.

Expect to see plenty of hard work by the Italians and Parisse bumping off a few tacklers at times, but it won't be enough in the end. Pick France -16.5 and top up with a lay of Italy on the +28.5 in case they capitulate towards the end.

Recommnded bets:
Back France -16.5 @ [2.1]
Lay Italy +28.5 @ [1.33]

Will explains why he anticipates a miserable return to Twickenham for Andy Robinson and why opponents around the world fear this England team....

France have an excellent record in the Italian capital but could the home side pull off a shock this Saturday? Stuart Jones selects the best bets....

Last time out Will Greenwood rewarded backers by landing a 14/1 treble - can he pull off the same trick in round four?...

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Will Greenwood: England are ready to beat France

Match Previews / Will Greenwood / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

England must makes themselves unbeatable at Twickenham

"Back England at [2.52] to win by a margin of less than 12.5 points and take a big step towards a first championship for eight years."

Two out of two for England and so far so good for Will Greenwood's bets on Johnno's men. But Saturday's match against France poses a big test to their Grand Slam ambitions and their aim of becoming one of the most feared teams in world rugby.

Is England v France a Six Nations Championship decider? The truth is this: if France win then, with only a trip to Rome and the visit of Wales to come, they will probably have wrapped up the title. If England win, they're well on their way but they still have to go to Dublin on the final day for a match that could yet derail their Grand Slam dream.

This is England's biggest match for 12 months. Last year, in Paris, they put in a pivotal display in going down 12-10, there was proactivity on and off the field and the ground was laid for the victories over Australia and the subsequent resurgence which sees the Red Rose [1.5] favourites for Saturday's match. There was little shame in the result against a very strong French 15, especially when you bear in mind the old saying that the French never lose within the sound of their own church bells.

Johnno's men can learn from France on that score. I was part of an England team that didn't lose at Twickenham for five years and if you want to be one of the big dogs of world rugby you simply cannot afford to be beaten at home.

At Twickenham this week, I caught a glimpse inside the home dressing room I know so well. I remember where I hung my kit, where I listened to team talks, where I went through all my pre-match rituals. Hell, I even remember the toilet. These are the things that impress themselves on you when you make your home ground a fortress. The current England side understand that winning at Twickenham needs to become a habit and in their heads they will be [1.01] to win on Saturday.

Le Crunch can often turn into an arm wrestle. Toby Flood, my bet for top points scorer, who is yet to miss a kick, will have an enormous influence on this game. The scrum will once again be massive but England will be determined not to concede the type of penalties they gave away in Paris last time. Thierry Dusatoir has produced some sublime defensive performances from flanker and Dimitri Yachvili, scourge of England, is back at scrum-half.

So can Marc Livremont's men stop Chris Ashton? Rugby isn't like football, you can't send a man out to track a star player, press up close and stop him playing his game. The whole team need to organise themselves to stifle his creativity. That won't be easy because Ashton will roam across the backline and if he crosses the white wash on Saturday he can celebrate however he wants. I just hope his dive his technically sounder than it has been.

The important thing for England fans when having a bet is to follow their head not their heart. So far, all my England tips have come in and, just like the team, I intend to keep my perfect record going this weekend. I believe England can beat France and I expect a final score around 24-18.

Back England at [2.52] to win by a margin of less than 12.5 points and take a big step towards a first championship for eight years.

*
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Two out of two for England and so far so good for Will Greenwood's bets on Johnno's men. But Saturday's match against France poses a big test to their Grand Slam ambitions and their aim of becoming one of the...

Will's backing England at [2.46] to beat France by less than 12.5 points but what bets is he adding from Wales v Italy and Scotland v Ireland?...

Geoffrey Riddle selects the best bets as two of the most formidable sides in the competition go head to head at the Aviva Stadium this Sunday......

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Can England show France the bird?

General / Ralph Ellis / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

"Johnson will need his complete flock to stand up to the strutting French cockerel."

England players have been undergoing a series of Jungian psychological tests to boost team bonding. Ralph Ellis wonders if the Red Rose can put a feather in their caps by beating the French or whether this will go down as a bird brained experiment.

So now we know why Chris Ashton loves that flying try celebration. He's actually a bird. And not just any bird, but a yellow peacock.

That's how English rugby's emerging superstar has been categorised in a series of psychological tests carried out under the instruction of Martin Johnson. England's manager seems to be copying the "no stone unturned" approach of his World Cup winning mentor Clive Woodward ahead of this year's competition.

All the elite stars in the Six Nations squad spent a day doing detailed quizzes under the guidance of the team's psychologist Gerard Murphy. They were - wait for this - based on the beliefs of Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung. At the end of it every player was grouped in a colour - either red, blue, green or yellow - and categorised as a bird, which could have been peacock, dove, owl or eagle.

Confused? Yes, me too. I can remember covering England's football team in the Glenn Hoddle days when faith healer Eileen Drewery was brought in to help prepare for a World Cup. One day Hoddle gave a passionate explanation of her powers to a packed press conference, and when he left the room some of we reporters burst into a chorus of "Come on Eileen".

These tests are nothing new. I can remember at school spending two days answering peculiar questions as part of careers guidance. I got a report telling me I could do anything I wanted except be a journalist (editor's note: they might have got that right then). And there are companies who routinely use these sort of assessments before recruiting staff in an attempt to make sure they get the right men and women for the job.

But it's something fresh in the sporting world, although Johnson's players seem to have taken the initiative on board. Mark Cueto learned he was a "red eagle", and says he asked Mike Tindall what that meant. Cueto tells the tale: "Tins replied: 'It means you're gobby', to which I shouted back: 'I'm bloody not'! 'I rest my case,' he said."

So will all this bird stuff help Johnson to feather his Six Nations nest? The test comes on Saturday night at Twickenham against France, and Johnson will need his complete flock to stand up to the strutting French cockerel. England have made a flying start to the Six Nations, but last season's Grand Slam winners present a significant opposition and I still think the Red Rose price of [1.5] is far too short.

England's manager says he's learned a lot from the exercise to help his team building. But then Hoddle was also totally entranced by Eileen's powers, and it didn't make a lot of difference to stop his team getting knocked out by Argentina. I worry this is just another bird brained idea.

Five things you might not know about Mark Cueto

1. Born in Workington, Cumbria, on Boxing Day 1979, his Spanish great grandfather Antonio had settled in the town in 1900 and set up a fish and chip shop which is still run by his cousins. His great uncle Frank played Rugby League for Warrington.

2. His dad, a civil engineer whose name was also Frank, was a keen rugby fan but when he moved the family to Wolverhampton, then to Crewe the eight-year-old Mark gave up the game and played football until he was 17

3. Asked to make up the numbers in a school rugby match, his talent was immediately obvious and his teacher arranged for him to have trials at Sale. He turned professional only after doing a sports science degree at Manchester University

4. He became a dad last year when son Max was born - his partner Suzie works in Manchester United's hospitality department (Cueto is a United fan)

5. He has specialist sprint training from former Great Britain athlete Darren Campbell to help him solve hamstring problems.

England players have been undergoing a series of Jungian psychological tests to boost team bonding. Ralph Ellis wonders if the Red Rose can put a feather in their caps by beating the French or whether this will go down as...

France are devising a masterplan to stop England and Ralph Ellis believes they might have what it takes to silence the Twickenham crowd next Saturday......

England can be backed at [1.77] to win their first championship for eight years and [2.96] for a Grand Slam after a dramatic round two......

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International Friendly Betting: France v Brazil

Internationals / Tobias Gourlay / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Brazil's defence is strengthened by the return of Julio Cesar for the first time since last summer's World Cup.

"13 of the Selecao’s 15 friendlies with European nations have also stayed Under 2.5 Goals."

France and Brazil have produced some great games down the years, but this one is unlikely to join the canon, says Tobias Gourlay.

France have a good record against Brazil, winning their last four competitive meetings. The pair have drawn their most recent couple of friendlies together, but that shouldn't stop Laurent Blanc pursuing a fifth successive victory as France coach.

Wins are hard to come by against Brazil, however. Although they lost a friendly to Argentina in November, they have been beaten in only 4/45 such games anywhere since 2000.

"I like my team to have the ball, dictate the game and score goals. I like to see players pushing forward as a unit. It makes the game more enjoyable to play, and to watch as well, doesn't it?" Hearing that from Blanc, you might almost be tempted to watch this match.

But beware: 15 of Les Bleus' last 17 home friendlies have finished with Under 2.5 Goals. Blanc is not to blame for this, but some of his players might be.

Outside South America this century, 13 of the Selecao's 15 friendlies with European nations have also stayed Under 2.5 Goals. Again, the new coach, Mano Menezes is not directly accountable, but, even though some big-name defenders are missing from both sides - Patrice Evra, Lucio and Maicon among them - it will be a brave punter that bucks both of these trends.

Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals at [1.76]

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Six Nations Betting Preview: France v Scotland

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 03 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is this the Scots' chance to end their miserable Parisian run?

"Scotland still lack incisive scoring ability and I’d prefer to go low in the total points market at 42.5, safe in the knowledge that Robinson’s side will make this a brutal test."

Andy Robinson has instilled in his team a steeliness that gives them a genuine chance of winning in Paris this weekend, says Geoffrey Riddle.

Scotland head over the Channel this weekend in the hope of overturning one of the worst records in Six Nations history. During the last 42 years of travelling to Paris, Scotland have just two wins to show for all the painful defeats that France have dished out.

There have been false dawns aplenty, many of which I have fallen for, but the evidence is there for all to see that Andy Robinson's well-drilled side have the best opportunity in Six Nations history of turning the tide.

Scotland's 23-20 victory last season over Ireland that denied them the Triple Crown in the final game at Croke Park provided the springboard to the sensational summer tour win over Argentina. It was the first tour victory for Scotland in their history and proves conclusively that Robinson has instilled a steeliness in his troops that has long been lacking.

Scotland have been handicap winners in eight of the 13 matches, and six of the last nine, that Robinson has presided over, and although there is a danger that the layers are waking up Scotland are certainly priced on the cusp of providing value in the 13.5-point market on Betfair.

According to the IRB rankings, Scotland have never been rated closer to France in the Six Nations. Just 0.46 points separate the two sides, the smallest since the 22-13 defeat in Paris in 2009. That day Scotland received a 15-point start by the bookmakers and were considered 2.79 points inferior. You do the math, as the Americans might say.

Robinson has also underlined the importance of a fast start, and his team have opened the scoring in nine matches under Robinson. It brings about the possibility that Scotland can strike first blood, and if they can withstand the inevitable French backlash early on they will be in pole position.

Robinson has stocked his forward larder with heavies, and so determined is he to face up to Les Bleus in front of the Parisian crowd that he has named beefcake Nathan Hines on the flank. France are not without their bruisers, either, and parity will not be good enough if Scotland are to cling on to France's coat-tails.

Marc Lievremont's side are in an awful run of form. The knives were sharpened with every try that Australia ran in during the final autumn international when Les Bleus were 16-16 with the Wallabies at half-time in Paris, before shipping 46 unanswered points.

To be level with Australia at the break was no mean feat, and at the end of a brutal four weeks just the thought that Australia were going to pull away was probably enough for the French to fold like an origami expert.

Like Wales, we have no idea what France are capable of this championship and as such it is too much of a leap of faith for me to invest my hard earned in something so intangible.

Scotland still lack incisive scoring ability, however, and I'd prefer to go low in the total points market at 42.5, safe in the knowledge that Robinson's side will make this a brutal test. If the French duck out, then so much the better.

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