Six Nations Betting: Young England backs could upset France

General / Ralph Ellis / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can England's youngsters take the fight to France this Sunday?

Danny Care is in trouble again but, on the pitch, Ralph Ellis believes that English rugby could have something to celebrate this weekend...

Danny Care does not have a drink problem - at least not according to Stuart Lancaster. The Harlequins scrum-half, who should have been playing the same role for England, has just been nicked for his third alcohol-related misdemeanour in a matter of months. But Lancaster says his problems are about "making bad decisions" rather than because of a reliance on drink. You hope that England's interim manager is just being diplomatic in public, because if he really thinks that, then he's kidding himself as well as everybody else.

When I talked to Danny for Betfair's Big Interview at the start of the World Cup back in November, I thought he was a smashing young man. He dealt with his own injury, which had robbed him of the chance to play in New Zealand, with great humour, and he spoke with insight about the prospects for Martin Johnson's team. So I don't want to do him down now.

But the bottom line is that a professional athlete's idea of drinking should be all about water, energy drinks and rehydration - and not necking so much booze that you get caught short in a taxi on the way home. When Care was arrested for being drunk and disorderly back in December it might have been a single aberration. A drink driving offence on New Year's Day should really have told him he had to change. Three times says there's an underlying problem.
What the Quins star clearly needs is some care with a small 'c', and some education and you hope that behind the public words that is exactly what will happen. One of Lancaster's key moves when he took charge was to tackle the issue that elite sport and excessive alcohol don't mix.

One thing he has got right is warning Care that there are now three scrum-halves in front of him and the only man who can change that pecking order is the one who has let himself fall so far down the rankings.

It will be a vital position to get right in Paris this Sunday. The return of Morgan Parra to his natural role for France means England's number nine will be fully tested. But Lee Dickson was excellent in the early part of the Twickenham clash with Wales, and showed there could be great potential in a budding partnership with Saracens' imaginative fly-half Owen Farrell.

Having backed England for the Twickenham game, I laid them in running - which was a chicken thing to do but ultimately proved a good decision. I bet Lancaster wished he'd been able to press a "cash out now" button half-way through that game!

England are [3.75] to win on Sunday and that has to be value, even if it is only a back to lay bet again. France weren't all that impressive against Ireland, whatever the merits of their second-half comeback. And if Lancaster's new half-back pairing can function as effectively again then there's definitely the potential to unleash the backs. Who knows? They might even open some space for Chris Ashton to rediscover his flair. But as for drinking to celebrate - let's leave that to the fans.

Five things you might not know about Morgan Parra
1. Born November 1988 in Metz, France, his electrician dad Antonio is Portuguese but had moved to France to take a part-time job coaching Lorraine's rugby team. Mother Valerie is a teacher in a home for the mentally handicapped.

2. Morgan was four when he first played rugby at Metz. Spotted for his talent, he was brought into the French academy system and spent two years at their national rugby centre at Marcoussis, as well as winning a French Under21 Championship title with CSBJ.

3. French rules forbid anybody playing senior rugby until the age of 18 - Parra was three days past his birthday when he made his debut for Bourgoin in a Top 14 match against Agen. Bourgoin won 31-18.

4. When he made his senior international debut in February 2008 against Scotland made him the 11th youngest ever to appear for the country.

5. He's training part-time to become an architect when he finishes playing - and has designed his own house which he is currently having built.

The draw between France and Ireland was backed at [42.0] on Betfair but what does the result mean for the rest of the tournament? And can England take advantage of France's patchy defence next weekend? Richard O'Hagan reports....

France and Ireland produce a draw in Paris to hand Wales the Six Nations initiative......

Richard O'Hagan looks back at what happened this weekend and what might happen in the remaining matches of the tournament, which Wales are now the strong favourites to win....

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Arsenal v Manchester City: City to shoot down young Gunners

Carling Cup / Mike Norman / 28 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Man City boss Roberto Mancini

"Arsenal and Man City have been involved in four Carling Cup games between them this season, resulting in a total of 16 goals being scored."

Two very different sides to the ones we see in the Premier League go head-to-head in a Carling Cup Quarter-Final tie, and Mike Norman believes City's class should triumph over youth.

Arsenal v Manchester City, KO: Tuesday 20:00 live on Sky Sports 2, Match Odds: Arsenal [3.1], Man City [2.46], The Draw [3.6]

I have to admit it's incredibly difficult to pen a match preview when every web search or glance at the TV for team news leads me to a story on Gary Speed's death. Like everyone else I was numb at Sunday's desperately sad news and it's almost impossible to come to terms with.

Myself, and everyone at Betting.Betfair, would like to extend our most heartfelt sympathies to Gary's family and friends.

As Gary would have wanted, football goes on, and on Tuesday evening Arsenal host Manchester City in an intriguing Carling Cup tie. One club desperate to win a major trophy, the other hoping to win the Premier League title. Two or three seasons ago you'd have said the former description fitted Man City, the latter Arsenal. How times have changed.

Despite Arsenal's continued quest for silverware and the strength of the opposition on Tuesday night, Arsene Wenger is expected to field a youthful side similar to the ones that beat Shrewsbury and Bolton earlier in the campaign. Defenders Ignasi Miquel, Carl Jenkinson and Nico Yennaris, midfielder Francis Coquelin, and striker Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain could all feature at some point alongside the experienced trio of Tomas Rosicky, Andrei Arshavin and Yossi Benayoun.

City - playing just 48 hours after Sunday's 1-1 draw with Liverpool - will be much-changed though their line-up is expected to be far more experienced than the Gunners', with the likes of Nigel Do Jong, Pablo Zabaleta, Kolo Toure, Adam Johnson, and Edin Dzeko likely to start.

Match Odds

The main question I asked myself when assessing this market was, is Arsenal's second string - arguably third string - better than the Wolves line-up that was thrashed 5-2 at home by Man City in the previous round? Probably not was my conclusion, and that means I have to go for Roberto Mancini's men to win this game at [2.46].

Of course, Wenger could field a much stronger side than expected which would make the outcome far more difficult to call. Remember, you don't have to get involved until the team line-ups are known but if Arsenal line up weak and City line up strong then the [2.46] about an away victory will disappear in the press of a mouse button.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Only once in the last seven meetings between Arsenal and Man City have both sides got on the socresheet, but when one side does manage a victory they tend to do it comprehensively - two 3-0 victories and a 4-2 victory for City in those seven games and 3-0 and 2-0 wins for Arsenal. To confuse matters though, the other two games finished goalless.

On this occasion I'm happy to ignore recent history and assess the game on what it is - a League Cup encounter between two much-changed sides. It's hard to make a case for a low-scoring encounter, and I'm not happy about taking just [1.75] on Over 2.5 Goals being the outcome. Arsenal and City have been involved in four Carling Cup games between them this season, resulting in a total of 16 goals being scored. Here's hoping that average of four goals per game can be maintained and a back of Over 3.5 Goals at [3.0] is the selection.

Correct Score

Whenever a glut of goals is fancied it's advisable to cover a few high-scoring options at big odds, even if at the minimum stake (£2). For example, a 3-0 victory to Man City is available to back at [34.0], whilst the 3-1 and 3-2 City win options can be backed at [22.0] and [30.0] respectively. Dutching all three will result in a return at [9.2] should one scoreline be correct, which by complete coincidence is the same price as the Any Unquoted outcome (any side to score at least four goals).

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Man City to win @ [2.46]
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [3.0]

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Why Ashley Young is a better signing than Villas-Boas

Premier League / Maxliu / 23 June 2011 / 1 Comments

Bettors shouldn't underestimate the impact Young could make

"Signing Young should consolidate United's [3.0] title favouritism. It also makes them a good bet [10.0] in the Champions League."

Manchester United have signed Ashley Young from Aston Villa for around £15 million. Max Liu explains why the winger could turn out to be a very important acquisition for the Premier League champions.

Chelsea have appointed a new manager and Manchester United have signed Ashley Young. Of the week's two developments, which will have the biggest impact on the 2011/12 title race? Most people will surely choose the former but I have a feeling that it could be the latter.

I dug Andre Villas-Boas' bluster-less first press conference and, if his Porto side were anything to go by, Roman Abramovich may finally get the attacking football that he craves. I want the new boss to succeed because, for me, supporting another team never gets in the way of a good story. Villas Boas is a good story and if he wins the title or the Champions League he will be an even better one.

But thirty-three is too young. Predictably, he's hailed as the new Special One but, when Jose Mourinho arrived at Stamford Bridge, he was a good deal older and had won the Champions League as well as the UEFA Cup. Mike Norman has already written about this, but the Chelsea squad needs a dramatic overhaul and an injection of youth. I wouldn't touch that [3.75] title price or [8.6] in Europe.

Mike says Villas-Boas could build a team round transfer target Joao Moutinho which suggests that this could be a transitional season for the Blues. Will Roman Abramovich tolerate the 't' word? The fact that Chelsea launched a bid for Luka Modric last week, while managerless, shows who's in charge at Chelsea. What odds will you give me on Villas-Boas still being at Stamford Bridge this time next year?

As for United, signing Young should consolidate their [3.0] title favouritism. It also makes them a good bet [10.0] in the Champions League. I'm not saying Young is a definitive signing who's going to set Europe alight, but these type of acquisitions can prove pivotal.

There's a historical precedent. In 2006, Manchester United hadn't won the title for four years. Chelsea ruled the Prem while both Arsenal and Liverpool had reached Champions League finals. United were failing to draw players to Old Trafford , losing out on the likes of Arjen Robben, Michaels Essien and Ballack. The Red Devils had, as a colleague observed in those dark days following Roy Keane's sacking, "No midfield."

Fans expected Sir Alex to spend big throughout the squad. But he made only one significant signing: Michael Carrick for £18 million from Spurs. The midfielder was clearly cultured but few expected him to put United back on their perch. In the event, they won the next three league titles, reached two Champions League finals, winning in 2008.

Carrick was no talisman but he balanced the midfield and allowed those around him to thrive: Cristiano Ronaldo, who had promised much but underachieved, became one of the best players in the world; Paul Scholes rediscovered his attacking game and Nemanja Vidic acquired confidence and learned the English game with a more authoritative midfield in front of him. The signing of Carrick was one of Ferguson's quieter revolutions but it ushered in a glorious period.

Like Carrick, Young, who managed 39 goals in 190 appearances for Villa, will be asked to score more. But his versatility, speed and directness will be an important element in a changing attack. Dimitar Berbatov - [1.5] to leave - has no place in this new frontline as Ferguson opts for fluidity in his bid to assemble a team capable of beating Barcelona. Contrary to what we saw at Wembley, he might be closer to that aim than many people think. The signing of Young could be a subtle yet crucial piece in that jigsaw.

Premier League champions are on the verge of signing up Aston Villa ace.......

New Chelsea boss Andre Villas-Boas already has a squad capable of challenging for the Premier League title says Mike Norman, but how can the Blues mount a serious challenge in Europe?...

Steve Bruce's side are shaping up well for the new season having confirmed the arrivals of Sebastian Larsson and Keiren Westwood on free transfers, and made an offer for Connor Wickham....

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Follow The Money: Denman vulnerable to young pretender?

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 07 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Lay of the day - Denman

"Denman has been drifting this morning from [2.08] out to [2.42]."

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Aintree, Hereford and Ripon.

Our first race is the 14:10 at Ripon where Almond Branches has had strong support to move from [28.00] in to [7.80]. Out of Dutch Art, the Prix Morny and Middle Park winner, this filly will be hoping to follow her sire's first progeny which won recently on the all weather. With no form to go on for any of the runners this is an interesting move for a stable not known for their two-year-old winners at this track.

Over at Aintree, in the 15:05 Denman who has been drifting this morning from [2.08] out to [2.42]. The crowd favourite comes here after a game second to Long Run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month but with questions seemingly being raised over how much that has taken out of him. He fell two fences from home in this race in 2009 and conditions today may be just too sharp for him. Up against some well fancied rivals, today could see a young pretender getting the best of him for the second time in a month.

In the 17:15 at Hereford, Charles has been backed down to [3.80] from [5.00]. He escapes a penalty for his recent victory on his handicap debut at Uttoxeter and is seemingly well fancied to go in again. He struggled for form after a promising debut on quick ground last October but he appreciated the sound surface last time and conditions seem to suit him again today.

Recommended bets
Back Almond Branches @ [7.80] Ripon 14:10
Lay Denman @ [2.38] Aintree 15:05
Back Charles @ [3.80] Hereford 17:15

The FTM boys suggest two backs and a lay of the beautifully named Angelina Ballerina. Here's why......

Today's Follow The Money comes from Pontefract, Kempton and Exeter....

THe FTM boys give us their usual two backs and one lay, the latter a case of opposing Kieren Fallon's mount in the 16:20 at Folkestone....

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Memphis Open Preview: Young guns can fire

Events / Sean Calvert / 14 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Milos Raonic has a big game and a big future in the game

"So, it’s a wide open Memphis this year, with any one of at least eightin with a real chance, but the safest play is to lay Roddick and have a small interest on the new boys, Raonic and Dodig at big prices with a view to trading out."

We're on the indoor courts of the US this week where the market favoyrite should be taken on and two up-and-coming stars of the ATP Tour can 'go deep', as they say on the other side of the pond.

My two long shots didn't quite pay off last week, but at least my advice to back Michael Llodra to beat Nikolay Davydenko proved spot on at a handy [2.94].

I'm sticking with the indoor circuit this week and it's over to America for the Regions Morgan Keegan Championships in Memphis, where the draw looks to be wide open, especially in the bottom half.

The number one seed, Andy Roddick, looks to have a tough route to a potential fifth Memphis final (won two, lost two so far) with the up and coming Richard Berankis first up and then Janko Tipsarevic (2-1 head-to-head Tipsarevic) next.

Roddick would then most probably face Lleyton Hewitt in the quarters and after that a potential semi final against perhaps John Isner, Juan Martin Del Potro, Ivan Dodig or Ivo Karlovic.

In addition to the tough draw, Roddick's indoor hard-court form hasn't been great lately, with a poor show at the ATP Tour Finals, where he lost all three matches; he hasn't won an event in these conditions since here in 2009.

The American's feeble effort in Melbourne doesn't breed confidence either, so I'm happy to take A-Rod on this week and lay him at the current [4.3].

That top half is packed with potential finalists and a lot could depend upon the highlight of the first round match-ups, which is Isner v Del Potro, with the winner standing a decent chance of reaching the final.

Del Potro is inching his way back to form, fitness and confidence in that injured wrist slowly, but it doesn't seem 100 percent yet, so despite the Argentine's 2-0 record over Isner, I would just favour the big American in that one.

There are also a couple of dangerous Croatians in the mix in that top half, with recent maiden tour titlist Ivan Dodig and Ivo Karlovic drawn in the same mini section next to Isner and Del Potro.

All in all, that top half looks very tough to call, but the bottom half looks weaker, with defending champion Sam Querrey in woeful form just now and a tricky first rounder against Denis Istomin is not what the doctor ordered for the American.

Querrey has lost in the first round in his last five events stretching back to October last year and it seems that he's still on a Murray-like downer after losing a tough five setter to Stan Wawrinka in New York.

If he is to come back to form this week then he has the draw to do well, with only Mardy Fish of any real note in his quarter, although Lukas Lacko is in there, who beat Querrey last week in San Jose.

Fish himself has had injury and illness problems for a while now and he too has done little since the US Open, having played just three events since then due to an ankle injury.

If Fish is fit, then he stands a chance with a handy draw, but he hasn't won an indoor title since 2003, although he did reach the San Jose final in 2009.

The final quarter is fascinating, with Fernando Verdasco facing an immediate repeat of Sunday's San Jose final against new sensation Milos Raonic in the first round.

Who's to say that the 20-year-old Canadian can't repeat here at around [20.0]? With that massive serve of his, anything's possible and I snapped up a huge [80.0] about a Raonic win ahead of the San Jose final.

Also in the mix in that quarter are Johannesburg champion Kevin Anderson, along with wild card James Blake, Benjamin Becker and Radek Stepanek.

Anderson has hardly played indoors at tour level and has never been past the second round of any ATP indoor event, so he's not one for the short list this week, but the unpredictable Stepanek has a 8-3 record here, so is not without half a chance.

So, it's a wide open Memphis this year, with any one of at least eight in with a real chance, but the safest play is to lay Roddick and have a small interest on the new boys, Raonic and Dodig at big prices with a view to trading out.

Recommended bets:

Lay Andy Roddick at [4.3]
Small back to lay bets on Milos Raonic at [20.0] & Ivan Dodig at [40.0]

We're on the indoor courts of the US this week where the market favoyrite should be taken on and two up-and-coming stars of the ATP Tour can 'go deep', as they say on the other side of the pond....

My saver bet on Kevin Anderson proved to be good advice last week, as the South African claimed his first ATP title at the SA Open at a price of [5.5]. Let's take our profits from that into this week's...

With the excitement of the Australian Open over for another year and with pockets reasonably full after a good fortnight in Melbourne, it's back to basics on the ATP Tour, for San Calvert....

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