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Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Six Nations Betting: Young England backs could upset France

General

/ Ralph Ellis / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can England's youngsters take the fight to France this Sunday?

Danny Care is in trouble again but, on the pitch, Ralph Ellis believes that English rugby could have something to celebrate this weekend...

Danny Care does not have a drink problem - at least not according to Stuart Lancaster. The Harlequins scrum-half, who should have been playing the same role for England, has just been nicked for his third alcohol-related misdemeanour in a matter of months. But Lancaster says his problems are about "making bad decisions" rather than because of a reliance on drink. You hope that England's interim manager is just being diplomatic in public, because if he really thinks that, then he's kidding himself as well as everybody else.

When I talked to Danny for Betfair's Big Interview at the start of the World Cup back in November, I thought he was a smashing young man. He dealt with his own injury, which had robbed him of the chance to play in New Zealand, with great humour, and he spoke with insight about the prospects for Martin Johnson's team. So I don't want to do him down now.

But the bottom line is that a professional athlete's idea of drinking should be all about water, energy drinks and rehydration - and not necking so much booze that you get caught short in a taxi on the way home. When Care was arrested for being drunk and disorderly back in December it might have been a single aberration. A drink driving offence on New Year's Day should really have told him he had to change. Three times says there's an underlying problem.
What the Quins star clearly needs is some care with a small 'c', and some education and you hope that behind the public words that is exactly what will happen. One of Lancaster's key moves when he took charge was to tackle the issue that elite sport and excessive alcohol don't mix.

One thing he has got right is warning Care that there are now three scrum-halves in front of him and the only man who can change that pecking order is the one who has let himself fall so far down the rankings.

It will be a vital position to get right in Paris this Sunday. The return of Morgan Parra to his natural role for France means England's number nine will be fully tested. But Lee Dickson was excellent in the early part of the Twickenham clash with Wales, and showed there could be great potential in a budding partnership with Saracens' imaginative fly-half Owen Farrell.

Having backed England for the Twickenham game, I laid them in running - which was a chicken thing to do but ultimately proved a good decision. I bet Lancaster wished he'd been able to press a "cash out now" button half-way through that game!

England are [3.75] to win on Sunday and that has to be value, even if it is only a back to lay bet again. France weren't all that impressive against Ireland, whatever the merits of their second-half comeback. And if Lancaster's new half-back pairing can function as effectively again then there's definitely the potential to unleash the backs. Who knows? They might even open some space for Chris Ashton to rediscover his flair. But as for drinking to celebrate - let's leave that to the fans.

Five things you might not know about Morgan Parra
1. Born November 1988 in Metz, France, his electrician dad Antonio is Portuguese but had moved to France to take a part-time job coaching Lorraine's rugby team. Mother Valerie is a teacher in a home for the mentally handicapped.

2. Morgan was four when he first played rugby at Metz. Spotted for his talent, he was brought into the French academy system and spent two years at their national rugby centre at Marcoussis, as well as winning a French Under21 Championship title with CSBJ.

3. French rules forbid anybody playing senior rugby until the age of 18 - Parra was three days past his birthday when he made his debut for Bourgoin in a Top 14 match against Agen. Bourgoin won 31-18.

4. When he made his senior international debut in February 2008 against Scotland made him the 11th youngest ever to appear for the country.

5. He's training part-time to become an architect when he finishes playing - and has designed his own house which he is currently having built.

The draw between France and Ireland was backed at [42.0] on Betfair but what does the result mean for the rest of the tournament? And can England take advantage of France's patchy defence next weekend? Richard O'Hagan reports....

France and Ireland produce a draw in Paris to hand Wales the Six Nations initiative......

Richard O'Hagan looks back at what happened this weekend and what might happen in the remaining matches of the tournament, which Wales are now the strong favourites to win....

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Six Nations Betting: Will Greenwood on France v Ireland

/ Will Greenwood / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Greenwood does not have fond memories of this lot

"I envisage France prevailing by 10-13 points so the safe bet is to back France -8.5 points at [2.14]."

Will Greenwood followers are enjoying considerable profits this Six Nations. So you should probably follow his advice when France and Ireland meet for their rescheduled match in Paris this Sunday.

Ireland are really up against it this Sunday. It's impossible to legislate for last minute postponements and, while both France and Ireland are now involved in four consecutive grueling match weekends, the away side face a gargantuan task in Paris.

Perhaps Declan Kidney's men played too much in their own half last weekend but that's the way to beat Italy. France and England both had to be patient before breaking down the Azzurri and Ireland took their opportunities well after the break. Their 42-10 win blew away a few cobwebs.

But it's backs against the wall time on Sunday. Paris is a horrible place for visiting teams. I admire French rugby, on its good days at least, they've made an inestimable contribution to club competition and Philip Saint-Andre has the makings of a very good team. However, while I appreciate that these are delicate times for Anglo-French relations, there are several reasons why playing in Paris is, frankly, merde.

Never underestimate the disorientating effect of competing in a foreign culture. Minor details, such as the food, driving on the wrong side of the road, put you ill at ease. Stade de France is a strange, enervating arena, where 90,000 French fans look at you as though you're not worthy of being on the pitch. Fair play to them, they know how to undermine opponents, but banter in the stands and on the touchline gets lost in translation and the atmosphere is cold, cold, cold.

You might have guessed that I never won in Paris. I was part of an England team that lost there on three occasions - 24-17, 20-15, 24-21 - and I was out injured when we silenced the French fans in 2000. That same year, incidentally, Ireland achieved their last win in the City of Light as Brian O'Driscoll scored a hat-trick in a 25-27 thriller.

In those days, teams scored points even when losing to France. Italy managed 12 here in round one and Scotland scored a couple of tries against France last weekend but Les Bleus were in second gear in both matches. I anticipate ruthlessness from France. There's been absolutely nothing wrong with their attack so far but I sense that they would relish a big victory. The loss of Maxime Medard is a blow but the march to Cardiff for what should be a Grand Slam decider would benefit from momentum. I expect Wesley Fofana and Vincent Clerc to come flying out of the blocks on Sunday so I'll back an early try.

Betfair have got it spot on with their 12.5 margin line and I'm struggling to choose which side to put my money on. I was right to back Ireland to go over and France under last week but I may have to swerve this market. Three weeks ago, I thought France would win by a big score but I sense that Ireland could be more resolute this time. I envisage France prevailing by 10-13 points so the safe bet is to back France -8.5 points at [2.14].

Geoffrey Riddle shares Will Greenwood's view that France should win and win well against Ireland in Paris on Sunday. Our man is also backing a certain French winger to terrorise the visitors......

Geoffrey Riddle believes that one day it will all click for Andy Robinson's Scotland - and the stats back him up - but whether that will happen on Sunday against France is another matter....

Geoffrey Riddle assesses the stats to see if England can upset the odds against a rampant Wales ......

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Six Nations Stat Attack: France v Ireland

/ Geoffrey Riddle / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Vincent Clerc has a superb record against Ireland

"France should win this match, and win it well and they look an excellent investment at [1.4]... "

Geoffrey Riddle shares Will Greenwood's view that France should win and win well against Ireland in Paris on Sunday. Our man is also backing a certain French winger to terrorise the visitors...

Stat attack

• Since the IRB world rankings were launched in 2003, France have never enjoyed a greater margin of superiority in the rankings when hosting Ireland in Paris.

• Ireland have won just once in Paris since 1972 and of those 21 matches in the French capital Ireland would have been losers with a seven-point start 15 times. A Brian O'Driscoll hat-trick set up a famous Irish victory in 2000 but the centre is out injured.

• France have led at half-time in seven of their last eight matches in all competitions in Paris against Ireland. You have to go back to 2009 when New Zealand played in Paris in the autumn for the last time Les Bleus trailed at half-time at home.

• France have scored the first try of the match in the last seven matches against Ireland.

• France have won nine consecutive games at the Stade de France, a run of wins stretching back to their 24-13 defeat at the hands of England in 2008

• Ireland have been losers in the main match handicap in five of their last six road matches in the Six Nations.

• Vincent Clerc represents France's most potent attacking threat against Ireland, having scored five times in his six Championship appearances against them.

• France coach Philippe Saint-André has made two changes to the side that defeated Scotland 17-23 at Murrayfield. Clement Poitrenaud makes a timely return to the full back spot after injury ruled Maxime Medard out of this weekend's clash. Meanwhile Clermont Auvergne flanker Julien Bonnaire is named at blindside wing-forward, with Imanol Harinordoquyswitching to No.8. He replaces Toulouse No.8 Louis Picamoles, who drops to the bench.

• Declan Kidney has adopted to keep the same starting line-up who beat Italy 42-10 at the Aviva Stadium, and the same XV that was originally picked to face France for the postponed game three weeks ago.

Preview

France were considered favourites over Ireland by nine to ten points before the farcical situation which saw the match called off at the 11th hour three weeks ago. Now, after Ireland's thumping win over Italy and France's victory in Edinburgh, the layers have shaved a point or two off the match handicap with France enjoying just a seven-point deficit with some layers in the betting village.

Form is obviously subjective, but according to the IRB rankings system, Ireland have not been this poor since Declan Kidney picked up the pieces from Eddie O'Sullivan before moulding the squad into a Grand Slam winning side in the 2008-09 season.

France enjoy one of their biggest advantages since the Six Nations was formed in 2000 with regards to the IRB rankings and in my database I have found 70 matches of a similar nature which have taken place in that time frame.

There are 46 home teams that won by more than seven points in that sample, with the average points differential standing at 14 in the 70 matches overall. France should win this match, and win it well and they look an excellent investment at [1.4] on Betfair, which filters down to the subsidiary markets.

France have an exceptional record against Ireland at home, scoring the opening try in the last seven encounters and although Kidney's side are one of the better teams in the tournament away from home, France look too strong and should be in front at half-time and full-time.

Ireland continue to operate without the ageing magic of Brian O'Driscoll, but France's most potent attacking weapon still takes the field.

The trend in this year's tournament is that backs are scoring all the tries - Tom Court, Rory Best and Sergio Parisse are the only forwards to have scored so far - and Wesley Forfana, the France centre, has confidently taken the step up from Heineken Cup rugby to international level. His tries and all-round game have helped France immeasurably and he can take some of the attention off team-mate Vincent Clerc, who has a sublime scoring record against the Irish over the years, scoring over half of his tries in the tournament against Ireland.

Will Greenwood followers are enjoying considerable profits this Six Nations. So you should probably follow his advice when France and Ireland meet for their rescheduled match in Paris this Sunday....

Geoffrey Riddle believes that one day it will all click for Andy Robinson's Scotland - and the stats back him up - but whether that will happen on Sunday against France is another matter....

Geoffrey Riddle assesses the stats to see if England can upset the odds against a rampant Wales ......

Saturday, February 25, 2012

Six Nations Stat Attack: England v Wales

2pts under 41.5 total points
1pt lay Wales @ [1.7]

/ Geoffrey Riddle / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

England look laboured under Lancaster but they are winning

"England have rewarded handicap backers on the main line in four of the last five occasions they have been considered outsiders at home."

Geoffrey Riddle assesses the stats to see if England can upset the odds against a rampant Wales ...

• England's starting XV is their most inexperienced line-up in the Championship since the 1989 match against Ireland - seven of the starting XV boast three caps or fewer.

• England may have dominated possession and territory against Italy a fortnight ago, but they only made one line break.

• Wales' last win at Twickenham was a 26-19 victory in 2008. Their last victory at Twickenham before that day was an 11-3 win in 1988.

• Wales were the last team to score a try against England in the second half of a match. They scored one in Cardiff in mid-August following two at Twickenham in their 23-19 defeat a week previously.

• As an illustration of the perceived fortunes of both sides since that summer double header, when Wales played England in London, Martin Johnson's side were considered 13-point favourites.

• The last eight times Wales have been favourites away from home, and not on neutral turf at the World Cup, they have rewarded handicap backers on the main line only two times - against Scotland in 2009 when winning 26-13 and against USA when winning 48-15 in the same year.

• England have been winners on the main handicap line against Wales in four of the last five encounters. England have also rewarded handicap backers on the main line in four of the last five occasions they have been considered outsiders at home.

• England coach Stuart Lancaster has gambled by bringing in Manu Tuilagi at outside centre, with Owen Farrell starting at fly-half in place of Charlie Hodgson, who is injured. Toby Flood is on the bench while Lee Dickson and Ben Morgan start at scrum half and No.8 in place respectively of Ben Youngs and Phil Dowson.

• Wales have made three changes to the side that defeated Scotland 27-13 a fortnight ago. Sam Warburton replaces Aaron Shingler at open side flanker. Ken Owens comes in at hooker in place of the injured Huw Bennett while Alun Wyn Jones makes his first start in the Championship since losing to France last year which means Ryan Jones drops to the bench.

• England lost two scrums and three lineouts against Italy. Wales's primary attacking platform during the World Cup was off the lineout, which highlights the significance of the return of Alun Wyn Jones.

• Of the 94 matches in the Six Nations where teams ranked higher by the IRB have hosted lower-rated opposition, the away side has won just 15.

Preview

Wales may appear to have a decent chance improving their poor record at Twickenham in the Six Nations against England on Saturday, but they look a skinny price to win only their third match in London in 24 years.

Warren Gatland's side are gunning for a quick-fire Triple Crown with victories over Ireland and Scotland in the bag and are priced at just [1.7] on Betfair to record their 20th such trophy.
Wales have not been good value on the main handicap line away from Cardiff in recent seasons, and despite England's performances both under Stuart Lancaster and Martin Johnson looking laborious, the fact remains that they are still winning matches - 12 of their last 15.

The perception of England does not match their effectiveness and considering England are still rated higher in the world rankings than Wales at present that always presents value opportunities.

Admittedly, without the charge-down capabilities of Charlie Hodgson, it is difficult to see how England, judge on this seasons' efforts, are going to cross the tryline but, with Manu Tuilagi in the mix and Owen Farrell given the chance to run the show at fly-half, things should be different.

Wales and England have a similar approach in that they wear teams down and strike in the second half counting on superior fitness levels. I have mentioned in the past two rounds both team's excellent scoring records after the break as well as their sharp defensive abilities - these two sides could tackle each other to a standstill for the entire 80 minutes.

As such the total points market looks pitched too high and it is easy to see why in the early liquidity the 'unders' are priced at 1.7. New Zealand and South Africa are the only visiting teams to have scored more than 20 points at Twickenham since 2009 and with England looking unlikely to reach that level either, your investment should be fairly safe.

Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan)

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Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood liked the look of Ireland at the start of the Six Nations. However, a shock home defeat and a cancelled match mean they enter round three looking for their first win. Our man is confident they...

Monday, February 13, 2012

African Cup Of Nations Diary: The Ivory Coast's time has come

/ Jonathan Wilson / 12 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

This is probably Didier Drogba's last chance to win a major international tournament

"This generation of Ivorian footballers has seemed marked out for greatness for an awfully long time. There has been a lot of talk of last-chance saloons, but for Didier Drogba in particular time is running out."

The Ivory Coast's approach to this tournament has been pragmatic, to say the least. And so far it's worked. But one thing is for sure: if Francois Zahoui's approach doesn't result in victory, there will be no hiding place for him or his team of stars.

For Ivory Coast, this is the moment of truth. In Francois Zahoui's conservatism, there has been a risk and that is that is if the Elephants don't finally win their second Cup of Nations - 20 years after their first - there will be no consolation. Pragmatic, safety-first football is legitimised only by victory.

This generation of Ivorian footballers has seemed marked out for greatness for an awfully long time. There has been a lot of talk of last-chance saloons, but for Didier Drogba in particular time is running out. He is 33, and although he probably will make the squad for South Africa next year, he is clearly past his peak. In terms of goals, this is already his joint best Cup of Nations, but he has also shown his abilities as a leader, both of the line and his team.

On song, there is still surely nobody in the world game who so combines physical and technical prowess. He holds the ball up superbly, lays it off intelligently, and has the speed of foot and of thought to beat an opponent. His cross for Salomon Kalou's headed
winner in the 1-0 win over Sudan with which Ivory Coast began the competition was simple yet brilliant, a moment of almost casual skill that created the opening against a stubborn opponent.

That he has managed not to become too frustrated with Gervinho - somehow both the instigator and the destroyer of so many Ivorian attacks - speaks volumes for his patience. His, and Ivory Coast's, reward for that calm was Gervinho's superb winner against Mali in the semi-final, when he turned sharply on halfway, dinked the ball through Ousmane Berthe's legs, ran on into the box and - for once - slotted the ball into the bottom corner. After a tournament of shanks and ballooned shots, of duffed crosses and runs down blind alleys, his first moment of decisiveness was worth waiting for.

Although Ivory Coast have lacked creativity at times in the past (and still probably do against truly disciplined opponents, for all Gervinho's unpredictability) the real issue is the defence, which has crumpled at crucial moments in each of the last two tournaments.
"Happily our defence has been very mature and solid since the beginning of the competition," Zahoui said. "After our past failures we knew that as long as we don't concede any goals we can make the difference up front. Our ambitions remain in place."

His aim since the semi-final win - another bluntly unambiguous 1-0 success - has clearly been to keep expectations down, to make sure nobody starts to believe the tournament is won before it actually is. "They are a young, very buoyant side who play good football," he said of Zambia. "They attack and cause problems for any team they come across."

And Zambia have emotion on their side. On Friday they went to the beach that was the last patch of land the Zambia team of 1993 flew over before their fatal plane crash. At first, amid the litter and other debris the whole spectacle seemed awkward, but as the players laid flowers in the water and sang together, forming a huddle as the sea lapped around their ankles, it's hard to imagine anybody didn't feel a lump rising in their throats.

Zambia will not give up the cheap goals others have against Ivory Coast, but the question is how far that emotion can carry them.

RECOMMENDED BET: Ivory Coast have scored nine goals in five games so far without conceding; if you discount the 2-2 draw against Libya in farcically wet conditions, Zambia have scored seven and conceded one in four games. This isn't going to be a goalfest. Ivory Coast, you feel must be too strong, so I'd suggest taking your pick of 1-0 [6.2], 2-0 [6.6] and 2-1 [10], or perhaps splitting the stake between all three.

James Eastham says there will be no upset in the Africa Cup of Nations final in Libreville on Sunday....

James Eastham says Ghana are overrated for the third game running as they prepare for Saturday's third-place play-off showdown....

Zambia are through to the final of the African Cup Of Nations for the first time in 20 years after a heroic win over Ghana. But the fact the final will be played in Libreville has huge significance for the...

Friday, February 10, 2012

Six Nations Stat Attack: Italy v England

/ Geoffrey Riddle / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Geoffrey believes England's back can outclass Italy's

"Italy’s famed scrum was beaten up by France last week and, although England’s tight-five is no match for Les Bleus, they can at least gain parity up front."

Geoffrey Riddle believes that England can record a second successive victory when they travel to Rome on Saturday...

Stat attack

• Italy made more offloads in the tackle than France last week - 12, which is equal to Ireland, Wales and England put together.

• Italy continue to be one of the cleanest sides in the tournament, conceding only six penalties to France last week - England will have to score tries.

• Under Nick Mallett, Italy played ten matches at home in the Six Nations and were winners on the main handicap line eight times.

• Italy scored 13 tries at RWC 2011, six of which were scored by forwards.

• Italy will field a total of 698 caps when they take the field against England, with another 116 caps on the bench. England have just 248 in their starting XV.

• England's last two visits to Rome have resulted in two narrow victories, but four and five points.

• At the Rugby World Cup, England scored 20 tries, 19 of which were scored by the backs.

• England scored almost twice as many tries in the second half compared to the first at the World Cup and did not concede a single touchdown after the break in New Zealand - the only team in the tournament to do so.

• Italy have never won a Test at the 82,000-capacity Stadio Olimpico.

Preview

England have never been handed a single-figure match handicap against Italy in the Six Nations, but after their laboured victory over Scotland last week Betfair have chalked up a 7.5-point differential between the two sides.

The last two times Italy have hosted England in Rome they have been tight affairs, with Martin Johnson's side edging clear by four and five points in 2008 and 2010 respectively.

Johnson never presided over a win in Edinburgh and although Stuart Lancaster's side were fortunate to succeed thanks to Charlie Hodgson's charge down, momentum is everything in the Six Nations.

Italy's famed scrum was beaten up by France last week and, although England's tight-five is no match for Les Bleus, they can at least gain parity up front.

England's backs are far superior to Italy's and during the World Cup England relied heavily on their backline to score tries. England's forwards scored only one try in New Zealand and if Chris Robshaw's pack front up then England should win this.

Recomended Bet (1-5pt staking plan):
2pts Back England to win by under 12.5 points

Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood is confident that Ireland can avenge their World Cup defeat against an injury-depleted Welsh team on Sunday......

Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood provides his first tips of the 2012 Six Nations and, as ever, proves adept at putting his expertise before his heart. Sorry England fans but it could be a torrid afternoon at Murrayfield for Stuart Lancaster's...

Geoffrey Riddle enjoyed a rather more successful World Cup than England so it should pay to listen to his recommendations during the 2012 Six Nations......

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

African Cup Of Nations Diary: Ivory Coast to end Mali's dreams

/ Jonathan Wilson / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kolo Toure has been one of the main reasons why the Ivory Coast are yet to concede a goal at the tournament

"This Ivory Coast just keeps grinding on, and there’s no reason to see them stopping here."

Feeling like Jack Nicholson in an Antonioni film, making do with basic levels of French in Gabon and predicting the demise of Mali at the hands of tournament favourites the Ivory Coast. It's Jonathan Wilson's diary.

More and more this trip is feeling like the Antonioni film The Passenger, in which Jack Nicholson plays a dissolute journalist in central Africa who, sick of the constraints of his middle-class life, takes advantage of the death of a fellow guest at his small hotel to exchange identities with him. The Hotel Jones in Luba may have looked like that hotel (although weirdly, when I went back the other day, I saw the building wasn't pale blue as I'd remembered it, but white with pale blue writing; either the memory is fallible, or the Chinese construction workers who've built a new concrete flood defence in front of it in under a week had repainted the place).

But even more redolent of that film was what happened this morning. I landed in Libreville at around 4.30 this morning. I'd arranged a room in a house with some other journalists, but being in a residential area, it didn't have an address, so I'd been told to ring a mobile number of a man named Joel, who apparently only spoke French.

My French is appalling at the best of times, but especially after three weeks of speaking Spanish (I can just about switch from English to 'foreign', but switching from one 'foreign' to another I find much harder). I dialled the number, fully expecting silence, but after two
rings somebody answered.

"Bonjour, c'est Jonathan?" said a voice.

"Oui. C'est Jonathan. Je suis arrive a l'aeroport."

"Bien." He hung up.

I waited. Twenty minutes later, a man approached me, somehow seeming to know who I was, shook my hand and led me to a car. As dawn broke over the Gabon capital, I arrived at the house. A gate opened mysteriously and I was shown in. In The Passenger, Nicholson is suddenly presented with a huge amount of cash for an arms deal he has
no hope of fulfilling. I was given a key and a towel and presented with a Spartan but perfectly serviceable room.

The stadium experience in Libreville began well - there's nothing like ferocious air-conditioning and free fish with vegetable stew to make a pasty British journalist feel at home in 30 degree heat and 80 percent humidity. It ended, though, in disappointment. Journalists shouldn't really favour either team, of course, but the exit of Gabon has undoubtedly deflated the tournament.

A semi-final between the hosts and the favourites could have been a classic, the pace and power of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Daniel Cousin tearing into a defence that is yet to concede; Mali against Ivory Coast, by contrast, likely to be played in a stadium that is all but empty, doesn't fire the imagination to anything like the same extent.

This Mali side feels as though it has risen almost without trace, lucky to beat Guinea and falling behind against Botswana before turning things around. It had its share of fortune on Sunday as well, Aubameyang and Cousin both hitting the post before Cheikh Diabate
hooked in the equaliser. They have resolve and bottle, perhaps inspired by the desire to do something for a country racked by the threat of the Tuareg rebels in the north-east, but it would be hard to argue Mali have been one of the best four teams in the tournament.

RECOMMENDED BET: This Ivory Coast just keeps grinding on, and there's no reason to see them stopping here. The bet on them to beat Equatorial Guinea 2-0 in the quarter-final was thwarted only by a brilliant late Yaya Toure free-kick, but Mali should have the defensive resolve to keep the score down to one or two. It's become a theme of late, but I'm going to suggest splitting the stake and backing 1-0 and 2-0.

Jonathan Wilson discusses a weekend of quarter-final matches and explains why he is especially look forward to Sunday......

James Eastham believes Gabon will make history by winning their quarter-final on Sunday afternoon....

James Eastham believes the tournament second favourites are too short for their quarter-final on Sunday evening....

Monday, February 6, 2012

Six Nations Round-up: Away wins boost England and Wales

General

/ Richard O’Hagan / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

George North scores for Wales in Dublin

Round one of the Six Nations is over, so what have we learned about the sides and how should results inform next weekend's bets? Richard O'Hagan reports.

The first weekend of the RBS Six Nations was a 'getting to know you' exercise for most teams, leading to staccato performances and a pretty poor standard of play. In fact, for the three winning sides you could almost pigeonhole their victories as an object lesson in how to win without looking like you were trying to.

France and Italy kicked the 2012 tournament off in a freezing Stade de France. France's 30-12 victory was a cut above 80% of their performances in the World Cup, but far below the level of their losing appearance in the final. Italy once again proved that they can give every side in the tournament - indeed, in the world - a run for their money, but they lacked the killing touch when they came within sight of the French goal line.

Next up for the Italians will be England, who defeated Scotland 13-6 in one of the worst games the venerable old championship has ever seen. Even allowing for the cold weather you would expect a club rugby match to contain fewer than 27 handling errors, let alone two international sides. In Scotland's case those errors were very costly, as on at least five occasions they spurned clear try-scoring opportunities because of them whilst another error - Dan Parks dithering near his own goal line, led to a charged-down kick and Charlie Hodgson's opportunistic try.

England's interim coach Stuart Lancaster will fancy his chances of extending that winning run when his young charges take on the Italians. Whilst the Azzurri pack may prove troublesome, his inexperienced centre pairing of Brad Barritt and Owen Farrell should find themselves with even more room against the Italians than they did against the Scots. The two French tries scored on the breakaway will have England's speedy wingers salivating. England's odds of [1.26] don't look overly generous, but they are still a solid bet even though bet in Rome.

Scotland go to Cardiff to take on Wales. The Welsh were the better side by far in their dramatic 23-21 win over Ireland, but were almost undone by a combination of Rhys Priestland's woeful placekicking and Bradley Davies' idiotic sinbinning when they were still only a point behind. In the end, a controversial penalty by Leigh Halfpenny less than a minute from time decided the game. Awarded as it was for what looked like a perfectly legitimate tackle by Stephen Ferris. It was the best game of the weekend, but it was still decided by errors, not by great play. Still, it's sent the Dragon's title odds tumbling and Wales are now in to [2.86] second favourites in the outright winner market.

Next Sunday, they play Scotland for whom prop Euan Murray will be missing. Despite their defeat to England, the Scots could give the Welsh more than a few problems and at odds of [3.8] they might be the value bet of the round.

France v Ireland could be the game of the whole championship. Both sides will need to improve upon this weekend's showing, with Ireland needing far more inspiration behind the scrum than they showed against the Welsh. It is hard to look beyond the French though, with the speed and skill of their centres, Aurelien Rougerie and Wesley Fofana, likely to be significant against an Irish midfield that was overmatched against the Welsh. France are [1.4] to win.

Dream start for Stuart Lancaster's inexperienced team as Scotland are left to rue errors and indecisiveness once again......

Blue is certainly the colour as Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood selects five bets for the 2012 Six Nations. Remember, our man did pretty well with these last year......

Every match, every market. Jon Harris-Bass joined by Will Greenwood and Tony Calvin for a Betfair preview of the 2012 Six Nations....

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Six Nations Team Guide: Scotland

Teams

/ Geoffrey Riddle / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ross Ford is unlikely to lift the Six Nations trophy

"Robinson must stop his side leaking crucial tries in the final ten minutes if he is to lift them above the malaise they have been engulfed in since Gavin Hastings hung up his boots."

Can Scotland stop conceding late, crucial scores in time for the 2012 Six Nations? Geoffrey Riddle assesses their chances and wonders if they might be worth backing on the main handicap line...

Scotland suffered at the cruel hand of fate twice in New Zealand where they failed to qualify for the knockout stages for the first time in Rugby World Cup history.

A Chris Ashton try in the 78th minute in Auckland finished off their hopes of qualifying and was preceded by a 73rd minute try from Argentina's Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, which broke Scottish hearts in Wellington. Regular readers of this column will remember I invested heavily in no tryscorer during that game, so sympathised heavily with the Scots.

Andy Robinson must stop his side leaking crucial tries in the final ten minutes if he is to lift them above the malaise they have been engulfed in since Gavin Hastings hung up his boots. The tendency indicates that in their cosy environment north of the border, the two Scottish sides, without fear of relegation, do not have to draw from the well enough and may not be as fit as some of the other sides in the RaboDirect Pro 12 as well as the Premiership and Top 14.

Robinson's record in the Six Nations is poor, and it is questionable whether he has improved the side dramatically since taking the reins. When he took over, Scotland were tenth in the world rankings and inhabit the same spot on the eve of the northern hemisphere extravaganza.

The betting public clearly agree with this synopsis, because the layers barely take a bean on Scotland, which presumably is why they have been profitable to back on the main match handicap over the past few seasons. Of the 24 matches Robinson has presided over, Scotland have been winners on the main handicap line 16 times. If you had backed Scotland all 24 times it would have yielded you a double-figure percentage profit over the past two years. Perhaps it is time to start getting on the bandwagon, if you haven't already, starting this Saturday against England.

There's no doubting the novelty of their training regimes but Wales' squad is missing too many key players to make them realistic contenders, says Geoffrey Riddle....

They're one of the most inexperienced sides at this year's tournament but they're also likely to be just about the fittest. Other than that, there's not a huge amount to like about them, says Geoffrey Riddle....

Italy come into the Six Nations in good shape but can Nick Mallet's men avoid bottom spot in 2011?...

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

African Cup of Nations Diary: Group win for Gernot's Gabon?

/ Jonathan Wilson / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Tournament co-hosts have won both games so far and could secure a stay at their favoured Libreville stadium throughout the knockout stages by avoiding defeat. Jonathan Wilson thinks they can do it

The tournament feels as though it's hit something of a lull. After all the excitement of the second round of games, when last-minute winners confirmed the progress of Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Tunisia, the final set of games has been about jockeying for quarter-final positions. Even the events of yesterday, when Sudan edged through to the last eight thanks to Angola's shambolic defending lacked the drama of last week.

So we know now that Zambia will play Sudan in the first semi-final, and that Ivory Coast will then take on Equatorial Guinea in Malabo, where the smaller stadium will surely offer less of an advantage than they would have enjoyed had they won their group and remained in Bata.

Gabon and Tunisia, who meet on Tuesday evening, have already secured their progress, but both know that the likely result of finishing second in the group is a game against Ghana. Only a Guinea victory against the Ghanaians could unseat the Black Stars from the top of the group and were that to happen there would be a serious possibility they would not qualify at all, for Mali will surely beat Botswana to leave three teams locked on six points.

Similarly, their coach, Gernot Rohr, sees an advantage in staying in Libreville.

"We would like to finish first in the group because when we finish first we can play in Libreville, in this wonderful stadium with this fantastic crowd," he said.

"And I hope we can be first because then we can stay in Gabon. If we are second it's possible that we'd play a semi-final in Equatorial Guinea. It will be a difficult game against Tunisia. They have two victories, too."

A draw would be enough for Gabon to top the group, but a win would also help to convince home fans who, weirdly, seem to think their team should be playing even better than it is. After the extraordinary late drama of the win over Morocco, when Gabon scored in the 77th and 79th minutes to take the lead, conceded in the 90th and then regained the lead in the 97th, the first question Rohr faced in the post-match press conference asked why his side hadn't won more easily.

"I don't feel any vengeance against me but the people are impatient," Rohr said, but he must be frustrated that having taken a team that was [30.0] at the beginning of the tournament to the quarter-finals, his work is not better appreciated.

"They didn't really understand we wanted to create a young team that would work together and be united. They are gaining more and more confidence because we have a good blend. There is a fresh new spirit, a cocktail that has produced a good competition for us so far."

Does that mean that he will play a full-strength team? Are Tunisia, whose policy of defending deep and hitting on the break has been successful so far but has required a certain amount of fortune, more likely to rest players? Probably, but both sides are unlikely to risk players on a yellow card and thus at risk of suspension.

So what of the other Tuesday game, between Morocco and Niger, two sides who are already out? The suspicion is that Morocco, who thought they had a genuine chance of winning the tournament, will give squad players a chance, while Niger, for whom even a point in the tournament would be success, may pick something more closely resembling a first choice side.

Recommended Bet
Morocco look short and laying them at [1.61] may be an option, but in an uncertain world, I like the look of [2.1] on over-2.5 goals in that game. A Moroccan backlash could obliterate Niger, while Niger are wobbly at the back and showed against Tunisia that they have the firepower to upset ostensibly better sides.

Win £1,000 on the African Cup of Nations Megaminute!

Fancy winning a cool £1,000? Simply login to Megaminute and guess the time of the first goal in our selected match from the tournament. If there is no winner, the fund gets rolled into the pot for the next matchday. To qualify, a £50 bet (single or multiple) must be placed on any football match featuring on the same day as the selected match. See Megaminute for full details.

Group C's top two are already confirmed in the last eight, but Tobias Gourlay believes Gabon have more to lose from this match than Tunisia...

Tobias Gourlay speculates that Group C will finish with Niger not losing a finals match for the first time in history...

James Eastham says motivation will be a major factor as the tournament favourites play their third and final Group B game....

Sunday, January 29, 2012

African Cup Of Nations Diary: Senegal to sign off with a win

/ Jonathan Wilson / 29 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will they finally see their team win?

"Even if Senegal give reserve players a chance against Libya, though, you’d still expect them to have a forward line that can damage Libya – one of the few advantages of bringing seven centre-forwards in the squad."

It's been a disappointing tournament for Senegal but they can make amends by signing off with a win, says Jonathan Wilson

Malabo stands on the north-west tip of Bioko, the main island part of Equatorial Guinea. On the south-west corner is Luba, a small town that feels a bit like Ambleside transplanted to Africa. It's all grey stone, and a small river runs through the centre of it, crossed by a number of quaint bridges. The water is surprisingly clear, affording a perfect view of all the rubbish that lies among the weeds on the bed. Towards the sea, women wash clothes and children paddle.

A little way inland on the main street, the river curves towards the mountainside, leaving a shallow floodplain that is covered in shingle. In the midst of it stands a pedestal, and on that is a bust of Maximiliano Jones. He was a slave trader from Sierra Leone who sold his own brothers, and founded the two sometime in the seventeenth century. Not, you'd think, the kind of man who would normally be celebrated, but his name is dotted about the town. The main hotel, which bears a pleasing resemblance to the African hotel in which Jack Nicholson holes up in Antonioni's film The Passenger, is painted pale blue. It's name? Hotel Jones (pronounced, of course, 'Hoh-ness').

It was in Luba that Equatorial Guinea were supposed to be based, having left the mainland for their final group match, against Zambia. They arrived on Friday, though, took one look at the hotel and decided that after two wins they're worth rather more. Somebody clearly agreed, because they've moved up to Sipopo, a luxury resort a few miles north of Malabo featuring a Sofitel and 52 luxury villas where the respective national presidents stayed during the African Union summit last year.

Zambia, by contrast, seem to have got the rough end of the deal, and on Friday there were training in the dark on the unlit artificial pitch outside the main stadium - a pitch so un-exclusive it's where I go for my morning jog. Equatorial Guinea are already through, and a point will be enough to Zambia, even if Libya beat Senegal.

I'm wary, though, of what team Equatorial Guinea will pick, and how motivated they'll be. Certainly, you imagine, they can't be as lucky again as they were against Senegal. And, equally, Zambia are a better balanced, more coherent side than Senegal - while lacking their forward power - are as such are less likely to offer them the same opportunities. Then there's the issue of the group. The stadium in Malabo has a capacity of only 15,000 and as such clearly won't offer the same level of vocal backing as the 38,000 stadium in Bata.

The other game presents similar difficulties. Libya need to win, but they're a side essentially set up to endure. They scored twice against Zambia, admittedly, but the absence of Khalid El Kharatoushi with a calf injury will cut their creative options even further. Senegal, meanwhile, have essentially gone out of the tournament as a result of a poor first half against Zambia. They were unable to turn that fixture around, and that left them vulnerable to the sort of bad luck that cost them against Equatorial Guinea.

Even if Senegal give reserve players a chance against Libya, though, you'd still expect them to have a forward line that can damage Libya - one of the few advantages of bringing seven centre-forwards in the squad. And, surely, they're due a bit of luck in this tournament.

Recommended Bet
I can see a mutually beneficial draw in the Equatorial Guinea v Zambia game, which would be [2.54], but I'd suggest going for Senegal to pull off a face-saving performance and beat Libya at [2.08]. And if you fancy something more ambitious, maybe Senegal to win both halves at [8.0]: if they get ahead early, they could pick Libya apart on the break.

Libya are likely to leave more space at the back than usual and Tobias Gourlay thinks Senegal's strikers will finally start shooting straight...

The market thinks Equatorial Guinea and Zambia might settle for a draw in Malabo, but Tobias Gourlay has found reasons to believe otherwise...

Guinea are deservedly backed by the market going into this crucial Group D clash, writes James Eastham....

England, meanwhille, are [5.1] to retain the title they won last year.

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Six Nations Betting: Ross Ford to lead Scotland

General

/ Editor / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ford wil captain Scotland in the Six Nations

"Ford has been capped 53 times and is described by Robinson as, 'A man who will step up and lead from the front.'"

Scotland appoint captain ahead of Six Nations match against England on February 4.

With less than a fortnight to go before they kick-off their Six Nations campaign against England, Scotland manager Andy Robinson has appointed Ross Ford as team captain.

The Scots are [2.52] to get off to a winning start at Murrayfield on Saturday February 4 with England favourites at [1.77].

Robinson said that he had intended for back-row forward Kelly Brown to lead the sign but an injury in a Heineken Cup match at the weekend means that he could miss the tournament.

Ford, who plays at hooker for his country and Edinburgh, has been capped 53 times and is described by Robinson as, "A man who will step up and lead from the front."

Scotland will hope to do more than avoid the Wooden Spoon - for which they're [3.75] - at this year's Six Nations. At [25.0], winning the Six Nations seems unlikely but victory against England would certainly set them on their way to giving a decent account of themselves in 2012.

Flanker set to miss England's first two matches through injury. Is it time to back Scotland?...

Lancaster puts his faith in youth and opts for a very forward-thinking team. But how will they deliver in the short term, during the 2012 Six Nations?...

O'Driscoll and co. put the Red Rose to the sword with an indominatable performance that leaves Johnson soul-seraching....

African Cup Of Nations Diary: Senegalese backlash on the cards

/ Jonathan Wilson / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lille's Moussa Sow is due a big performance for Senegal

"The sense is of a backlash coming, and it may be Nzalang Nacional who bear the brunt of that."

Equatorial Guinea somehow won their first match but we didn't find out too much about how good they are. Senegal on the other hand lost their opening match but there were signs they're about to improve. A win here can get them right back in the tournament, says Jonathan Wilson.

Was it a freak? Equatorial Guinea beat Libya in their opening match at the Cup of Nations, defying the gloomy prognostications that had been coming out of Spain, where the bulk of the squad is based. This, after all, is a disparate bunch of players - only two of the 23 were actually born in Equatorial Guinea, neither of whom were in the starting line-up on Saturday - and they had been playing under their new manager, the Brazilian Gilson Paulo, for only a fortnight. He himself admitted he has had very little chance to impose his personality on the squad. It shouldn't have worked, and yet it did, the opening game bringing forth an outpouring of national pride that swept Equatorial Guinea to victory.

Their second game sees the Nzalang Nacional face Senegal, who began with a 2-1 defeat to Zambia. Senegal were desperately poor in the first half of that game, caught on the break again and again by Herve Renard's well-organised and cohesive Chipolopolo. In the second, though, they regrouped and laid siege to the Zambia goal, and were probably a touch unfortunate to only pull one back.

Perhaps the sight of Christopher Katongo, darting in from the wing to create the play behind the pacy 21 year old Emmanuel Mayuka, will inspire Equatorial Guinea. After all, Libya for much of that opening game looked the better, more composed side, but their patient passing got them nowhere, and it was the direct enthusiasm of the hosts that won out, the goalscorer Javier Balboa and the left-winger Randy frequently unsettling the Libyans by charging straight at them. Randy's performance was particularly eyecatching and not a little odd, his surges creating the impression of him having been a constant threat, even though he completed only a little over 60 per cent of his passes. Senegal, though, surely can't be as bad again.

They were third favourites at the start of the tournament, largely thanks to their wealth of attacking talent - Demba Ba, Papiss Demba Cisse, Mamadou Niuang, Moussa Sow and Souleymane Camara. In qualifying perming three from five worked and they rattled in 16 goals in six games, but in that first game it looked like too many similar players all squabbling over the same space. Introducing Ba may have made sense in terms of recent club form, but it's hard not to wonder whether that disrupted the flow that had carried them through the qualifiers.

"We lost a battle, not the war," insisted Senegal's coach Armand Traore. "It'll wake us up, and that's going to help me a lot on the psychological front. We turned the page on the Zambia match on Sunday morning, holding a debriefing on what needed to be fixed. My talk to the team was based on the fundamentals: passing, working as a unit...to be aggressive."

The sense is of a backlash coming, and it may be Nzalang Nacional who bear the brunt of that. Senegal's midfield, once it started to play, denied Zambia any space to run in the second half, and if they can do the same against Equatorial Guinea, it's hard to see how the hosts could score. Libya's patient approach told us little about how Equatorial Guinea react when put under pressure, and it may be that the initial adrenaline of that first game cannot be recreated in Bata this evening. Expectation, anyway, applies its own pressure.

RECOMMENDED BET:

If you want to play it safe, Senegal at [1.76] to win seems a touch on the long side, the results in the opening games perhaps having influenced punters against the Lions of Teranga. For something a little more ambitious, Senegal to win at -1 goal on the Asian handicap is [2.5].

James Eastham expects "The National Elephants" to defy the odds by seeing off Mali in Group D....

Senegal remain third favourites to win the Africa Cup of Nations, despite losing their opening game, and Tobias Gourlay expects - hopes - they will start to justify their status against Equatorial Guinea...

Zambia's determination to do well in Gabon is undimmed by their shock win over Senegal, says Tobias Gourlay...

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Six Nations Betting Preview: Italy v France

Match Previews

/ Stuart Jones / 10 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Exciting winger Maxime Nedard will relish playing against Italy

"It may take France a while to break Italy down but tries should come in the second half as gaps begin to appear in the home side's defence."

France have an excellent record in the Italian capital but could the home side pull off a shock this Saturday? Stuart Jones selects the best bets.

History suggests that France should have few problems putting defeat to England behind them in Rome this Saturday. The French cruised to a 46-20 victory over Italy last year in Paris, but their record in the Eternal City is even more impressive, with victories by 42, 36 and 43 points in recent years.

While the Italians have proved capable of competing with the likes of Scotland and Wales, they rarely manage to stop France from running up a big score. While we all know that records are there to be broken, it will take a huge turnaround in form to put the Italians in with a chance.

The problem for Italy is that they simply cannot handle any side that attacks them efficiently in the wide areas. Time and again their forwards put in a solid display in the middle of the pitch, but as soon as the game breaks down they start to unravel. Barring superstar captain Sergio Parisse, the forwards are uncomfortable outside of their basic remit of hitting scrums, line-outs and rucks. This in turn puts more pressure on a backline lacking individual quality and, with Luciano Orquera back in the number ten slot, the French will relish the prospect of targeting such a sucpect defender.

The French were stifled by a muscular and organised defence in the last round against a very effective, if not particularly explosive, England side. They have often struggled against the sheer size and brute force of England, but nearly always come back to run up big scores against weaker sides. That's what I expect to happen here.

The French backline, including the mercurial talents of Maxime Medard and Vincent Clerc, plus the solidity of Aurelien Rougerie and Yannick Jauzion, should run amok against their Italian counterparts. With a tight-five that will easily be a match for the Italian's strongest area, and a back-row that has a good mix of brute force and intelligence, I expect the French to provide plenty of ball for their excellent decision-makers at nine and ten. It may take a while for them to wear Italy down, but tries should come in the second half as gaps begin to appear in the Italian defence.

Expect to see plenty of hard work by the Italians and Parisse bumping off a few tacklers at times, but it won't be enough in the end. Pick France -16.5 and top up with a lay of Italy on the +28.5 in case they capitulate towards the end.

Recommnded bets:
Back France -16.5 @ [2.1]
Lay Italy +28.5 @ [1.33]

Will explains why he anticipates a miserable return to Twickenham for Andy Robinson and why opponents around the world fear this England team....

France have an excellent record in the Italian capital but could the home side pull off a shock this Saturday? Stuart Jones selects the best bets....

Last time out Will Greenwood rewarded backers by landing a 14/1 treble - can he pull off the same trick in round four?...

Monday, February 28, 2011

Six Nations Betting Preview: Scotland v Ireland

Match Previews

/ Geoffrey Riddle / 26 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Andy Robinson get a response from his players?

"Although Scotland look considerable value on the handicap, I’d much prefer to back the unders in the total points market."

Geoffrey Riddle suffered with the Scots a fortnight ago. So can they bounce back at Murrayfield against Ireland and where will our man put his money this time?

For someone who relies heavily on statistical analysis, Scotland's encounter with Ireland at Murrayfield on Sunday is somewhat tricky. All the analysis in the world will not gain access in to the minds of the Scottish players, who threw away a gilt-edged opportunity to beat Wales a fortnight ago, and my money with it.

I will confess here that I lost a fair chunk on Andy Robinson's men, but having poured over the match statistics it is fair to say that it was simply one of those things that as a punter one has to take on the chin.

Scotland beat twice as many defenders as Wales in their 24-6 defeat. They made more clean breaks, they offloaded three times as often and made twice as many metres with the ball in hand. Although their scrum creaked at the outset, they turned over Wales twice against the head, too. And yet despite this superiority, and a two-man advantage after Lee Byrne and Bardley Davies were sent to the sin bin, they made 19 errors of such horrendous importance that they came off a distinct second best on the scoreboard.

Robinson was rightly livid, and has made seven changes that look to have strengthened Scotland's hand. Chris Paterson, Scotland's most capped player, will bring some much needed calm at full back, as well as some dead-eyed accuracy with the boot. Half backs Mike Blair and Ruaridh Jackson will bring a bit of devil to Scotland's play going forward and the fit again Richie Gray and Johnnie Beattie, who has recovered from shoulder surgery, will ensure the pack does not take a step backwards. Sean Lamont is also brought in, but as the Northampton back went 20 Tests without scoring a try until he crossed in Paris in round one, he makes Mark Cueto look dangerous.

And yet, as is Scotland's lot in the Six Nations, they have been bitterly unlucky. As a Christian, the God-fearing Euan Murray will not feature, and the best player on the park two weeks ago, Rory Lamont, misses out through injury. Joe Ansbro, who was superb against France and laughable against Wales, is also injured.

For their part, I thought Ireland were just as good as France in Dublin. The 25-22 scoreline reflects that, and if Gordon D'Arcy had not missed that tackle on Aurelien Rougerie in the 53rd minute to send over Maxime Medard, Ireland would probably have won. To show how close the margins are between defeat and victory, the Leinster man made nine tackles in that match, and only missed Rougerie.

Declan Kidney, the Ireland coach, has named Ronan O'Gara at fly-half, suggesting heavily that Ireland intend to play for position and put so much pressure on Scotland that they crack once again. As one punter on Twitter pointed out, however, Ireland have conceded far too many penalties recently for that to be totally effective and this looks to have all the ingredients of an arm-wrestle.

Having crunched the numbers, I firmly believe that this should be a scratch match. My database indicates that matches of similar nature to this in past tournaments have resulted in the home side receiving no more than a three-point start, too. Scotland are by no means bomb-proof, however. Under Robinson they have only twice scored more points in the second half than in the first half, strongly suggesting that the English coach needs to stop his squad eating too many deep-fried Mars bars and do more bleep tests.

This is likely to be an edgy contest, decided by two strong goal-kickers. Although Scotland look considerable value on the handicap, I'd much prefer to back the unders in the total points market. That way if Scotland put in another horror show and collapse in the second half through lack of fitness I will not be so deflated.

Geoffrey Riddle suffered with the Scots a fortnight ago. So can they bounce back at Murrayfield against Ireland and where will our man put his money this time?...

Two out of two for England and so far so good for Will Greenwood's bets on Johnno's men. But Saturday's match against France poses a big test to their Grand Slam ambitions and their aim of becoming one of the...

Will's backing England at [2.46] to beat France by less than 12.5 points but what bets is he adding from Wales v Italy and Scotland v Ireland?...

Friday, February 25, 2011

Six Nations Betting Preview: Italy v Wales

Match Previews

/ Stuart Jones / 24 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

James Hook moves back in to the centre for the trip to Rome

Wales picked up their first win in eight games when seeing off Scotland a fortnight ago and they will fancy their chances of making it two on the bounce when they travel to Rome, writes Stuart Jones.

There's no doubting that Wales' win over Scotland win will have done wonders for the confidence of a side that had been seen as potential wooden-spooners going into the game, but it is very questionable what they actually achieved in defeating a Scottish side that were, to put it kindly, utterly clueless.

Wales did play with a good deal more cohesion than in their opening game against England, the decision to switch James Hook to fly-half paying dividends as their backline was far more dangerous, his distribution enabling Roberts and Davies to get over the gain line consistently.

Unfortunately for Warren Gatland's men, injury to Jonathan Davies means it's all change in the backs, with Stephen Jones back in the number ten jersey and Hook switched to outside centre. Given how well things worked in Edinburgh, it's hard to believe that Jones would have regained his place but for Davies's setback.

After losing out in the dying minutes to Ireland in week one, Italy failed miserably to back up that encouraging performance at Twickenham a week later, chasing shadows for most of the 80 minutes as they slumped to a 59-13 defeat.

Coach Nick Mallet will have read the riot act to his players after such a comprehensive defeat and being back home in Rome is a considerable boost to a team that struggles on the road.

The Italians excel in just about every area their Welsh counterparts don't, and if they are to pull off a shock then they have to ensure their set piece is as dominant as it should be.

The Azzuri uncharacteristically lost nine of their own lineouts at Twickenham, and not giving away such cheap possession this weekend must be close to the top of their list of priorities.

Although Italy remain a side that struggles to convert chances out wide, they are organised and strong enough up front to grind Wales down. The worry is that their backline defence is not up to stopping the more clinical Welsh backs. Wales may stutter and stumble in the tight areas, but a couple of moments of magic from the likes of Hook or Williams may well see them over the line.

For this reason I am taking Wales to win by 1-12 points as I expect the Welsh attack to win them the game, but cannot see them managing to break clear of a hard working Italian side.

Recommend bet:
Wales to win by between 1-12 pts @ [2.58]

Will's backing England at [2.46] to beat France by less than 12.5 points but what bets is he adding from Wales v Italy and Scotland v Ireland?...

Wales picked up their first win in eight games when seeing off Scotland a fortnight ago and they will fancy their chances of making it two on the bounce when they travel to Rome, writes Stuart Jones....

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Six Nations Betting Preview: Scotland v Wales

Match Previews

/ Stuart Jones / 10 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

James Hook is tackled by Alastair Hellock in last year's fixture

"Alastair Kellock has emerged as a genuine leader and forms a promising partnership with Richie Gray that looks set to cause Wales serious problems at line-out time."

They may have lost last weekend but Scotland are a team on the up, according to Stuart Jones. Wales, meanwhile, are in a world of trouble...

After opening week defeats, Saturday's clash between Scotland and Wales carries massive importance for both sides, with a win vital if either team is to stand any chance of taking the title. Despite the home side suffering a heavier defeat last weekend, it is Wales who will be under huge pressure at Murrayfield.

Scotland are undoubtedly very much on the up under Andy Robinson, and, after a successful autumn series that included a victory over South Africa, they look set to get their first Six Nations win of 2011 under their belts.

The Scots have finally found some steel up-front with their most improved area being the second row. Alastair Kellock has emerged as a genuine leader and forms a very promising partnership with Richie Gray, one that looks set to cause Wales serious problems at line-out time. While Scotland struggled in the scrums against France, they are unlikely to have anywhere near the same problems against Wales who are missing world-class props Jenkins and Jones.

The away side can't even look to the back-row to get them going as their trio were no match for England last week and Scotland may well possess one of the strongest units in the competition. Beattie, Barclay, and Hines mix brutal force with surprising deftness and, ably assisted by Richie Gray's mobility, are likely to gain far greater yardage than their opposite numbers.

Another big plus for Scotland is their fairly fresh-looking backline, with De Luca and Ansbro providing a surprising amount of quality against France, while the gifted Max Evans will always cause problems out wide. Their strong defensive efforts could be more important, though, and if they shut the big Wales talents out, Scotland will offer far too much up-front for their rivals.

As usual with Wales, though, a beaten pack does not always equal an impossible task. They still have players in the backline capable of blowing holes wide open and Scotland will have to be on their toes. Davies and Roberts are big runner, and if they, along with the talented James Hook at 10, can get over the gain line, gaps may well open up for Shane Williams and co.

It's hard to see Wales repeating their extraordinarily dramatic win in this fixture last season and I am looking to take them on in the main handicap market this weekend.

Recommended bets:
Back Scotland - 2.5 pts @ [1.91]

Friday, February 11, 2011

Will Greenwood's Six Nations Treble: Round two

Match Previews

/ Will Greenwood / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gordon D'Arcy had a shocker in Rome

"Wales are in serious trouble and, if they lose to Scotland, my wooden spoon bet on Italy will be in jeopardy."

Last week, Will Greenwood missed out on an opening weekend treble by half a point. This week he's determined to pull off the hat-trick, but will the World Cup winner play safe or back a points extravaganza?

I was part of an England side that lost their opening Six Nations match in France in 1998 and it's a real test of a team to see if they can bounce back. Fortunately, we managed it with a big win over Wales at Twickenham but as a player you feel desperate after losing your opener.

That's the situation facing both Wales and Scotland when they meet at Murrayfield on Saturday. The away side are in serious trouble and, if they lose - which Betfair punters expect them to - my wooden spoon bet on Italy will be in jeopardy. I have to say, odds of 5.5 on the Welsh finishing bottom of the pile are quite appealing.

Scotland scored three tries in Paris and many people believe they are a strong side. But if the French had been more clinical with their final pass, they could have won by 50 points. I would have predicted a home win in this match by seven to nine points but we could see a fair few tries at Murrayfield and, if you fancy backing a points extravaganza, you could bet on Scotland to win by over 12.5 points at [3.15]. That would be a ballsy move, and the Scots will be buoyed by their performance in Cardiff last year, but I don't think they'll trounce the Welsh so I'm going to back Scotland with a handicap of 2.5 points at [1.81].

I'm currently turning out for a veterans team and even our coach would have pulled off Gordon D'Arcy on Saturday. The Ireland centre had a shocker in Rome but, with Declan Kidney's squad decimated by injuries, he should get a chance to redeem himself in what will be cracking game against France.

This is the first Six Nations match to be played at the new Aviva Stadium in Dublin and I expect the home side to rise to the occasion. It's important to remember that Leinster have already beaten Clermont there this season and I'd be taking that as the form line for this match rather than recent internationals.

At times France were ridiculously good against Scotland but Ireland were holding something back against Italy and [2.62] is a great price for a home win.

Will Greenwood's Six Nations Treble:
Back England -22.5 points @ [2.04]
Back Scotland -2.5 @ [1.81]
Back Ireland @ [2.62]

To follow Will on Twitter click here and to visit his website click here.