African Cup Of Nations Diary: The Ivory Coast's time has come

African Cup Of Nations / Jonathan Wilson / 12 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

This is probably Didier Drogba's last chance to win a major international tournament

"This generation of Ivorian footballers has seemed marked out for greatness for an awfully long time. There has been a lot of talk of last-chance saloons, but for Didier Drogba in particular time is running out."

The Ivory Coast's approach to this tournament has been pragmatic, to say the least. And so far it's worked. But one thing is for sure: if Francois Zahoui's approach doesn't result in victory, there will be no hiding place for him or his team of stars.

For Ivory Coast, this is the moment of truth. In Francois Zahoui's conservatism, there has been a risk and that is that is if the Elephants don't finally win their second Cup of Nations - 20 years after their first - there will be no consolation. Pragmatic, safety-first football is legitimised only by victory.

This generation of Ivorian footballers has seemed marked out for greatness for an awfully long time. There has been a lot of talk of last-chance saloons, but for Didier Drogba in particular time is running out. He is 33, and although he probably will make the squad for South Africa next year, he is clearly past his peak. In terms of goals, this is already his joint best Cup of Nations, but he has also shown his abilities as a leader, both of the line and his team.

On song, there is still surely nobody in the world game who so combines physical and technical prowess. He holds the ball up superbly, lays it off intelligently, and has the speed of foot and of thought to beat an opponent. His cross for Salomon Kalou's headed
winner in the 1-0 win over Sudan with which Ivory Coast began the competition was simple yet brilliant, a moment of almost casual skill that created the opening against a stubborn opponent.

That he has managed not to become too frustrated with Gervinho - somehow both the instigator and the destroyer of so many Ivorian attacks - speaks volumes for his patience. His, and Ivory Coast's, reward for that calm was Gervinho's superb winner against Mali in the semi-final, when he turned sharply on halfway, dinked the ball through Ousmane Berthe's legs, ran on into the box and - for once - slotted the ball into the bottom corner. After a tournament of shanks and ballooned shots, of duffed crosses and runs down blind alleys, his first moment of decisiveness was worth waiting for.

Although Ivory Coast have lacked creativity at times in the past (and still probably do against truly disciplined opponents, for all Gervinho's unpredictability) the real issue is the defence, which has crumpled at crucial moments in each of the last two tournaments.
"Happily our defence has been very mature and solid since the beginning of the competition," Zahoui said. "After our past failures we knew that as long as we don't concede any goals we can make the difference up front. Our ambitions remain in place."

His aim since the semi-final win - another bluntly unambiguous 1-0 success - has clearly been to keep expectations down, to make sure nobody starts to believe the tournament is won before it actually is. "They are a young, very buoyant side who play good football," he said of Zambia. "They attack and cause problems for any team they come across."

And Zambia have emotion on their side. On Friday they went to the beach that was the last patch of land the Zambia team of 1993 flew over before their fatal plane crash. At first, amid the litter and other debris the whole spectacle seemed awkward, but as the players laid flowers in the water and sang together, forming a huddle as the sea lapped around their ankles, it's hard to imagine anybody didn't feel a lump rising in their throats.

Zambia will not give up the cheap goals others have against Ivory Coast, but the question is how far that emotion can carry them.

RECOMMENDED BET: Ivory Coast have scored nine goals in five games so far without conceding; if you discount the 2-2 draw against Libya in farcically wet conditions, Zambia have scored seven and conceded one in four games. This isn't going to be a goalfest. Ivory Coast, you feel must be too strong, so I'd suggest taking your pick of 1-0 [6.2], 2-0 [6.6] and 2-1 [10], or perhaps splitting the stake between all three.

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African Cup Of Nations Diary: Ivory Coast to end Mali's dreams

African Cup Of Nations / Jonathan Wilson / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kolo Toure has been one of the main reasons why the Ivory Coast are yet to concede a goal at the tournament

"This Ivory Coast just keeps grinding on, and there’s no reason to see them stopping here."

Feeling like Jack Nicholson in an Antonioni film, making do with basic levels of French in Gabon and predicting the demise of Mali at the hands of tournament favourites the Ivory Coast. It's Jonathan Wilson's diary.

More and more this trip is feeling like the Antonioni film The Passenger, in which Jack Nicholson plays a dissolute journalist in central Africa who, sick of the constraints of his middle-class life, takes advantage of the death of a fellow guest at his small hotel to exchange identities with him. The Hotel Jones in Luba may have looked like that hotel (although weirdly, when I went back the other day, I saw the building wasn't pale blue as I'd remembered it, but white with pale blue writing; either the memory is fallible, or the Chinese construction workers who've built a new concrete flood defence in front of it in under a week had repainted the place).

But even more redolent of that film was what happened this morning. I landed in Libreville at around 4.30 this morning. I'd arranged a room in a house with some other journalists, but being in a residential area, it didn't have an address, so I'd been told to ring a mobile number of a man named Joel, who apparently only spoke French.

My French is appalling at the best of times, but especially after three weeks of speaking Spanish (I can just about switch from English to 'foreign', but switching from one 'foreign' to another I find much harder). I dialled the number, fully expecting silence, but after two
rings somebody answered.

"Bonjour, c'est Jonathan?" said a voice.

"Oui. C'est Jonathan. Je suis arrive a l'aeroport."

"Bien." He hung up.

I waited. Twenty minutes later, a man approached me, somehow seeming to know who I was, shook my hand and led me to a car. As dawn broke over the Gabon capital, I arrived at the house. A gate opened mysteriously and I was shown in. In The Passenger, Nicholson is suddenly presented with a huge amount of cash for an arms deal he has
no hope of fulfilling. I was given a key and a towel and presented with a Spartan but perfectly serviceable room.

The stadium experience in Libreville began well - there's nothing like ferocious air-conditioning and free fish with vegetable stew to make a pasty British journalist feel at home in 30 degree heat and 80 percent humidity. It ended, though, in disappointment. Journalists shouldn't really favour either team, of course, but the exit of Gabon has undoubtedly deflated the tournament.

A semi-final between the hosts and the favourites could have been a classic, the pace and power of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Daniel Cousin tearing into a defence that is yet to concede; Mali against Ivory Coast, by contrast, likely to be played in a stadium that is all but empty, doesn't fire the imagination to anything like the same extent.

This Mali side feels as though it has risen almost without trace, lucky to beat Guinea and falling behind against Botswana before turning things around. It had its share of fortune on Sunday as well, Aubameyang and Cousin both hitting the post before Cheikh Diabate
hooked in the equaliser. They have resolve and bottle, perhaps inspired by the desire to do something for a country racked by the threat of the Tuareg rebels in the north-east, but it would be hard to argue Mali have been one of the best four teams in the tournament.

RECOMMENDED BET: This Ivory Coast just keeps grinding on, and there's no reason to see them stopping here. The bet on them to beat Equatorial Guinea 2-0 in the quarter-final was thwarted only by a brilliant late Yaya Toure free-kick, but Mali should have the defensive resolve to keep the score down to one or two. It's become a theme of late, but I'm going to suggest splitting the stake and backing 1-0 and 2-0.

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African Cup of Nations Diary: Group win for Gernot's Gabon?

African Cup Of Nations / Jonathan Wilson / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Tournament co-hosts have won both games so far and could secure a stay at their favoured Libreville stadium throughout the knockout stages by avoiding defeat. Jonathan Wilson thinks they can do it

The tournament feels as though it's hit something of a lull. After all the excitement of the second round of games, when last-minute winners confirmed the progress of Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Tunisia, the final set of games has been about jockeying for quarter-final positions. Even the events of yesterday, when Sudan edged through to the last eight thanks to Angola's shambolic defending lacked the drama of last week.

So we know now that Zambia will play Sudan in the first semi-final, and that Ivory Coast will then take on Equatorial Guinea in Malabo, where the smaller stadium will surely offer less of an advantage than they would have enjoyed had they won their group and remained in Bata.

Gabon and Tunisia, who meet on Tuesday evening, have already secured their progress, but both know that the likely result of finishing second in the group is a game against Ghana. Only a Guinea victory against the Ghanaians could unseat the Black Stars from the top of the group and were that to happen there would be a serious possibility they would not qualify at all, for Mali will surely beat Botswana to leave three teams locked on six points.

Similarly, their coach, Gernot Rohr, sees an advantage in staying in Libreville.

"We would like to finish first in the group because when we finish first we can play in Libreville, in this wonderful stadium with this fantastic crowd," he said.

"And I hope we can be first because then we can stay in Gabon. If we are second it's possible that we'd play a semi-final in Equatorial Guinea. It will be a difficult game against Tunisia. They have two victories, too."

A draw would be enough for Gabon to top the group, but a win would also help to convince home fans who, weirdly, seem to think their team should be playing even better than it is. After the extraordinary late drama of the win over Morocco, when Gabon scored in the 77th and 79th minutes to take the lead, conceded in the 90th and then regained the lead in the 97th, the first question Rohr faced in the post-match press conference asked why his side hadn't won more easily.

"I don't feel any vengeance against me but the people are impatient," Rohr said, but he must be frustrated that having taken a team that was [30.0] at the beginning of the tournament to the quarter-finals, his work is not better appreciated.

"They didn't really understand we wanted to create a young team that would work together and be united. They are gaining more and more confidence because we have a good blend. There is a fresh new spirit, a cocktail that has produced a good competition for us so far."

Does that mean that he will play a full-strength team? Are Tunisia, whose policy of defending deep and hitting on the break has been successful so far but has required a certain amount of fortune, more likely to rest players? Probably, but both sides are unlikely to risk players on a yellow card and thus at risk of suspension.

So what of the other Tuesday game, between Morocco and Niger, two sides who are already out? The suspicion is that Morocco, who thought they had a genuine chance of winning the tournament, will give squad players a chance, while Niger, for whom even a point in the tournament would be success, may pick something more closely resembling a first choice side.

Recommended Bet
Morocco look short and laying them at [1.61] may be an option, but in an uncertain world, I like the look of [2.1] on over-2.5 goals in that game. A Moroccan backlash could obliterate Niger, while Niger are wobbly at the back and showed against Tunisia that they have the firepower to upset ostensibly better sides.

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African Cup Of Nations Diary: Senegal to sign off with a win

African Cup Of Nations / Jonathan Wilson / 29 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will they finally see their team win?

"Even if Senegal give reserve players a chance against Libya, though, you’d still expect them to have a forward line that can damage Libya – one of the few advantages of bringing seven centre-forwards in the squad."

It's been a disappointing tournament for Senegal but they can make amends by signing off with a win, says Jonathan Wilson

Malabo stands on the north-west tip of Bioko, the main island part of Equatorial Guinea. On the south-west corner is Luba, a small town that feels a bit like Ambleside transplanted to Africa. It's all grey stone, and a small river runs through the centre of it, crossed by a number of quaint bridges. The water is surprisingly clear, affording a perfect view of all the rubbish that lies among the weeds on the bed. Towards the sea, women wash clothes and children paddle.

A little way inland on the main street, the river curves towards the mountainside, leaving a shallow floodplain that is covered in shingle. In the midst of it stands a pedestal, and on that is a bust of Maximiliano Jones. He was a slave trader from Sierra Leone who sold his own brothers, and founded the two sometime in the seventeenth century. Not, you'd think, the kind of man who would normally be celebrated, but his name is dotted about the town. The main hotel, which bears a pleasing resemblance to the African hotel in which Jack Nicholson holes up in Antonioni's film The Passenger, is painted pale blue. It's name? Hotel Jones (pronounced, of course, 'Hoh-ness').

It was in Luba that Equatorial Guinea were supposed to be based, having left the mainland for their final group match, against Zambia. They arrived on Friday, though, took one look at the hotel and decided that after two wins they're worth rather more. Somebody clearly agreed, because they've moved up to Sipopo, a luxury resort a few miles north of Malabo featuring a Sofitel and 52 luxury villas where the respective national presidents stayed during the African Union summit last year.

Zambia, by contrast, seem to have got the rough end of the deal, and on Friday there were training in the dark on the unlit artificial pitch outside the main stadium - a pitch so un-exclusive it's where I go for my morning jog. Equatorial Guinea are already through, and a point will be enough to Zambia, even if Libya beat Senegal.

I'm wary, though, of what team Equatorial Guinea will pick, and how motivated they'll be. Certainly, you imagine, they can't be as lucky again as they were against Senegal. And, equally, Zambia are a better balanced, more coherent side than Senegal - while lacking their forward power - are as such are less likely to offer them the same opportunities. Then there's the issue of the group. The stadium in Malabo has a capacity of only 15,000 and as such clearly won't offer the same level of vocal backing as the 38,000 stadium in Bata.

The other game presents similar difficulties. Libya need to win, but they're a side essentially set up to endure. They scored twice against Zambia, admittedly, but the absence of Khalid El Kharatoushi with a calf injury will cut their creative options even further. Senegal, meanwhile, have essentially gone out of the tournament as a result of a poor first half against Zambia. They were unable to turn that fixture around, and that left them vulnerable to the sort of bad luck that cost them against Equatorial Guinea.

Even if Senegal give reserve players a chance against Libya, though, you'd still expect them to have a forward line that can damage Libya - one of the few advantages of bringing seven centre-forwards in the squad. And, surely, they're due a bit of luck in this tournament.

Recommended Bet
I can see a mutually beneficial draw in the Equatorial Guinea v Zambia game, which would be [2.54], but I'd suggest going for Senegal to pull off a face-saving performance and beat Libya at [2.08]. And if you fancy something more ambitious, maybe Senegal to win both halves at [8.0]: if they get ahead early, they could pick Libya apart on the break.

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African Cup Of Nations Diary: Senegalese backlash on the cards

African Cup Of Nations / Jonathan Wilson / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Lille's Moussa Sow is due a big performance for Senegal

"The sense is of a backlash coming, and it may be Nzalang Nacional who bear the brunt of that."

Equatorial Guinea somehow won their first match but we didn't find out too much about how good they are. Senegal on the other hand lost their opening match but there were signs they're about to improve. A win here can get them right back in the tournament, says Jonathan Wilson.

Was it a freak? Equatorial Guinea beat Libya in their opening match at the Cup of Nations, defying the gloomy prognostications that had been coming out of Spain, where the bulk of the squad is based. This, after all, is a disparate bunch of players - only two of the 23 were actually born in Equatorial Guinea, neither of whom were in the starting line-up on Saturday - and they had been playing under their new manager, the Brazilian Gilson Paulo, for only a fortnight. He himself admitted he has had very little chance to impose his personality on the squad. It shouldn't have worked, and yet it did, the opening game bringing forth an outpouring of national pride that swept Equatorial Guinea to victory.

Their second game sees the Nzalang Nacional face Senegal, who began with a 2-1 defeat to Zambia. Senegal were desperately poor in the first half of that game, caught on the break again and again by Herve Renard's well-organised and cohesive Chipolopolo. In the second, though, they regrouped and laid siege to the Zambia goal, and were probably a touch unfortunate to only pull one back.

Perhaps the sight of Christopher Katongo, darting in from the wing to create the play behind the pacy 21 year old Emmanuel Mayuka, will inspire Equatorial Guinea. After all, Libya for much of that opening game looked the better, more composed side, but their patient passing got them nowhere, and it was the direct enthusiasm of the hosts that won out, the goalscorer Javier Balboa and the left-winger Randy frequently unsettling the Libyans by charging straight at them. Randy's performance was particularly eyecatching and not a little odd, his surges creating the impression of him having been a constant threat, even though he completed only a little over 60 per cent of his passes. Senegal, though, surely can't be as bad again.

They were third favourites at the start of the tournament, largely thanks to their wealth of attacking talent - Demba Ba, Papiss Demba Cisse, Mamadou Niuang, Moussa Sow and Souleymane Camara. In qualifying perming three from five worked and they rattled in 16 goals in six games, but in that first game it looked like too many similar players all squabbling over the same space. Introducing Ba may have made sense in terms of recent club form, but it's hard not to wonder whether that disrupted the flow that had carried them through the qualifiers.

"We lost a battle, not the war," insisted Senegal's coach Armand Traore. "It'll wake us up, and that's going to help me a lot on the psychological front. We turned the page on the Zambia match on Sunday morning, holding a debriefing on what needed to be fixed. My talk to the team was based on the fundamentals: passing, working as a unit...to be aggressive."

The sense is of a backlash coming, and it may be Nzalang Nacional who bear the brunt of that. Senegal's midfield, once it started to play, denied Zambia any space to run in the second half, and if they can do the same against Equatorial Guinea, it's hard to see how the hosts could score. Libya's patient approach told us little about how Equatorial Guinea react when put under pressure, and it may be that the initial adrenaline of that first game cannot be recreated in Bata this evening. Expectation, anyway, applies its own pressure.

RECOMMENDED BET:

If you want to play it safe, Senegal at [1.76] to win seems a touch on the long side, the results in the opening games perhaps having influenced punters against the Lions of Teranga. For something a little more ambitious, Senegal to win at -1 goal on the Asian handicap is [2.5].

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