African Cup Of Nations Diary: The Ivory Coast's time has come

African Cup Of Nations / Jonathan Wilson / 12 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

This is probably Didier Drogba's last chance to win a major international tournament

"This generation of Ivorian footballers has seemed marked out for greatness for an awfully long time. There has been a lot of talk of last-chance saloons, but for Didier Drogba in particular time is running out."

The Ivory Coast's approach to this tournament has been pragmatic, to say the least. And so far it's worked. But one thing is for sure: if Francois Zahoui's approach doesn't result in victory, there will be no hiding place for him or his team of stars.

For Ivory Coast, this is the moment of truth. In Francois Zahoui's conservatism, there has been a risk and that is that is if the Elephants don't finally win their second Cup of Nations - 20 years after their first - there will be no consolation. Pragmatic, safety-first football is legitimised only by victory.

This generation of Ivorian footballers has seemed marked out for greatness for an awfully long time. There has been a lot of talk of last-chance saloons, but for Didier Drogba in particular time is running out. He is 33, and although he probably will make the squad for South Africa next year, he is clearly past his peak. In terms of goals, this is already his joint best Cup of Nations, but he has also shown his abilities as a leader, both of the line and his team.

On song, there is still surely nobody in the world game who so combines physical and technical prowess. He holds the ball up superbly, lays it off intelligently, and has the speed of foot and of thought to beat an opponent. His cross for Salomon Kalou's headed
winner in the 1-0 win over Sudan with which Ivory Coast began the competition was simple yet brilliant, a moment of almost casual skill that created the opening against a stubborn opponent.

That he has managed not to become too frustrated with Gervinho - somehow both the instigator and the destroyer of so many Ivorian attacks - speaks volumes for his patience. His, and Ivory Coast's, reward for that calm was Gervinho's superb winner against Mali in the semi-final, when he turned sharply on halfway, dinked the ball through Ousmane Berthe's legs, ran on into the box and - for once - slotted the ball into the bottom corner. After a tournament of shanks and ballooned shots, of duffed crosses and runs down blind alleys, his first moment of decisiveness was worth waiting for.

Although Ivory Coast have lacked creativity at times in the past (and still probably do against truly disciplined opponents, for all Gervinho's unpredictability) the real issue is the defence, which has crumpled at crucial moments in each of the last two tournaments.
"Happily our defence has been very mature and solid since the beginning of the competition," Zahoui said. "After our past failures we knew that as long as we don't concede any goals we can make the difference up front. Our ambitions remain in place."

His aim since the semi-final win - another bluntly unambiguous 1-0 success - has clearly been to keep expectations down, to make sure nobody starts to believe the tournament is won before it actually is. "They are a young, very buoyant side who play good football," he said of Zambia. "They attack and cause problems for any team they come across."

And Zambia have emotion on their side. On Friday they went to the beach that was the last patch of land the Zambia team of 1993 flew over before their fatal plane crash. At first, amid the litter and other debris the whole spectacle seemed awkward, but as the players laid flowers in the water and sang together, forming a huddle as the sea lapped around their ankles, it's hard to imagine anybody didn't feel a lump rising in their throats.

Zambia will not give up the cheap goals others have against Ivory Coast, but the question is how far that emotion can carry them.

RECOMMENDED BET: Ivory Coast have scored nine goals in five games so far without conceding; if you discount the 2-2 draw against Libya in farcically wet conditions, Zambia have scored seven and conceded one in four games. This isn't going to be a goalfest. Ivory Coast, you feel must be too strong, so I'd suggest taking your pick of 1-0 [6.2], 2-0 [6.6] and 2-1 [10], or perhaps splitting the stake between all three.

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Mali v Ivory Coast: Favourites ready to cruise through to final

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Didier Drogba and team-mates celebrate a goal in their 3-0 quarter-final win

"Do Mali have the firepower to breach the Ivory Coast defence and make a game of this semi-final? My feeling is yes, even though Mali have managed just four goals in four games. They have more attacking talent than that goals tally suggests – and, as they're rank outsiders, all the pressure is on Ivory Coast."

James Eastham expects Ivory Coast to win but says their magnificent defensive record is about to end.

Mali v Ivory Coast, 19:00 GMT, British Eurosport, Match Odds: Mali 9.2, Ivory Coast 1.51, The Draw 4.3.

Ivory Coast were pre-season favourites to lift the trophy and have retained top position in the outright betting all the way through the tournament.

After recording three wins out of three in the group phase the Ivorians beat Equatorial Guinea 3-0 to take their place in the last four.

Despite the wonderful attacking talent in their squad Ivory Coast's progress has been built on a defence that has yet to concede a goal. Progress has been functional rather than flamboyant, but it's working for a nation determined to end their trophy drought.

"When we played the Nations Cup in 2010, 2006 and other years, we played great football and we didn't win anything," St Etienne attacker Max Gradel told the BBC. "But today the most important thing - as the coach tells us every day - is winning and it doesn't matter how you win.

"Everything our coach is telling us to do, we're doing it. On the pitch and off the pitch he's the boss."

Do Mali have the firepower to breach the Ivory Coast defence and make a game of this semi-final? My feeling is yes, even though Mali have managed just four goals in four games. They have more attacking talent than that goals tally suggests - and, as they're rank outsiders, all the pressure is on Ivory Coast.

That's why I would avoid the Ivory Coast to win to nil market at [1.91] or Ivory Coast to keep a clean sheet at [1.81]. Mali will throw everything at the favourites, and have better attacking players than Equatorial Guinea, who failed to find the net in the quarter-finals.

My main selection on the game would be Over 2.5 Goals at [2.28]. This is because Ivory Coast scored three times in the last eight and I give Mali a good chance of scoring, but also because of the stats from this tournament and semi-finals down the years. Fourteen of 28 (50%) matches in the competition so far have featured over 2.5 goals, and six of the last 12 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have had three goals or more. The odds-against price is therefore worth taking.

My second bet would be to oppose Ivory Coast keeping a clean sheet. The market offers a good price on the favourites conceding because of their excellent defensive record to date. You can back 'No' in the Ivory Coast Clean Sheet? market at [2.18].

Finally, there is historic evidence that one the semi-finals will result in a comfortable victory. Five of the last 12 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have seen a side triumph by three goals or more (two 3-0 scorelines, two 4-0s and a 4-1). Therefore you ought to consider backing Ivory Coast -1.5 Asian handicap at around [2.25] if you expect Didier Drogba and co. to get through.

Best Bet: Mali v Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.28].
Other Recommended Bet: Ivory Coast not to Keep a Clean Sheet @ [2.18].

P&L: £10 staked on all James Eastham's tips during the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America would have netted you a profit of £223.70 (33.4% ROI)

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African Cup Of Nations Diary: Ivory Coast to end Mali's dreams

African Cup Of Nations / Jonathan Wilson / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kolo Toure has been one of the main reasons why the Ivory Coast are yet to concede a goal at the tournament

"This Ivory Coast just keeps grinding on, and there’s no reason to see them stopping here."

Feeling like Jack Nicholson in an Antonioni film, making do with basic levels of French in Gabon and predicting the demise of Mali at the hands of tournament favourites the Ivory Coast. It's Jonathan Wilson's diary.

More and more this trip is feeling like the Antonioni film The Passenger, in which Jack Nicholson plays a dissolute journalist in central Africa who, sick of the constraints of his middle-class life, takes advantage of the death of a fellow guest at his small hotel to exchange identities with him. The Hotel Jones in Luba may have looked like that hotel (although weirdly, when I went back the other day, I saw the building wasn't pale blue as I'd remembered it, but white with pale blue writing; either the memory is fallible, or the Chinese construction workers who've built a new concrete flood defence in front of it in under a week had repainted the place).

But even more redolent of that film was what happened this morning. I landed in Libreville at around 4.30 this morning. I'd arranged a room in a house with some other journalists, but being in a residential area, it didn't have an address, so I'd been told to ring a mobile number of a man named Joel, who apparently only spoke French.

My French is appalling at the best of times, but especially after three weeks of speaking Spanish (I can just about switch from English to 'foreign', but switching from one 'foreign' to another I find much harder). I dialled the number, fully expecting silence, but after two
rings somebody answered.

"Bonjour, c'est Jonathan?" said a voice.

"Oui. C'est Jonathan. Je suis arrive a l'aeroport."

"Bien." He hung up.

I waited. Twenty minutes later, a man approached me, somehow seeming to know who I was, shook my hand and led me to a car. As dawn broke over the Gabon capital, I arrived at the house. A gate opened mysteriously and I was shown in. In The Passenger, Nicholson is suddenly presented with a huge amount of cash for an arms deal he has
no hope of fulfilling. I was given a key and a towel and presented with a Spartan but perfectly serviceable room.

The stadium experience in Libreville began well - there's nothing like ferocious air-conditioning and free fish with vegetable stew to make a pasty British journalist feel at home in 30 degree heat and 80 percent humidity. It ended, though, in disappointment. Journalists shouldn't really favour either team, of course, but the exit of Gabon has undoubtedly deflated the tournament.

A semi-final between the hosts and the favourites could have been a classic, the pace and power of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Daniel Cousin tearing into a defence that is yet to concede; Mali against Ivory Coast, by contrast, likely to be played in a stadium that is all but empty, doesn't fire the imagination to anything like the same extent.

This Mali side feels as though it has risen almost without trace, lucky to beat Guinea and falling behind against Botswana before turning things around. It had its share of fortune on Sunday as well, Aubameyang and Cousin both hitting the post before Cheikh Diabate
hooked in the equaliser. They have resolve and bottle, perhaps inspired by the desire to do something for a country racked by the threat of the Tuareg rebels in the north-east, but it would be hard to argue Mali have been one of the best four teams in the tournament.

RECOMMENDED BET: This Ivory Coast just keeps grinding on, and there's no reason to see them stopping here. The bet on them to beat Equatorial Guinea 2-0 in the quarter-final was thwarted only by a brilliant late Yaya Toure free-kick, but Mali should have the defensive resolve to keep the score down to one or two. It's become a theme of late, but I'm going to suggest splitting the stake and backing 1-0 and 2-0.

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Ivory Coast v Burkina Faso: Favourites to grab a second win

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 25 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Dider Drogba scored the winner in Ivory Coast's opening game

Burkina Faso's opening performance and Ivory Coast’s immense attacking potential (their squad contains Gervinho, Max Gradel, Seydou Doumbia, Salomon Kalou and Yaya Toure) makes over 2.5 goals a worthwhile option.

James Eastham believes Ivory Coast's second group game will be a high-scoring encounter.

Ivory Coast v Burkina Faso, 19:00 GMT, Match Odds: Ivory Coast [1.49], Burkina Faso [9.2], The Draw [4.4].

Ivory Coast failed to live up to expectations in managing only a 1-0 victory over Sudan last Sunday, but how often do tournament favourites earn spectacular opening-day wins? If tournaments are all about peaking at the right time, there was enough in The Elephants' performance to suggest there's plenty more to come from them.

Ivory Coast will be confident going into the game thanks to those 3pts already in the bag (you can read a report of their win here). In contrast, Burkina Faso are under pressure having lost 2-1 to Angola in their opening game. The highlight of their match was Alain Traore's 25-yard free-kick, but some of their defending was below-par, suggesting Ivory Coast will get plenty of scoring opportunities if they pick their moments carefully.

Burkina's performance and Ivory Coast's immense attacking potential (Drogba scored the winning goal over Sudan and their squad also contains Gervinho, Max Gradel, Seydou Doumbia, Salomon Kalou and Yaya Toure) makes over 2.5 goals a worthwhile option. At some point in the match, Burkina Faso will have to attack as Ivory Coast and Angola already have a win each and they must close the gap. Therefore I expect good scoring opportunities at both ends - and while Ivory Coast's attacking options are superior, Traore and Rennes winger Jonathan Pitroipa both have the ability to unlock the favourites' defence.

Over 2.5 Goals at [2.32] is my main pick on the game, and I wouldn't talk anybody out of backing Ivory Coast to collect 3pts in order to guarantee their safe passage to the knockout phase. The tournament favourites are [1.49] to win the match, so Ivory Coast -1.0 Asian handicap at [1.83] is an alternative.

An alternative to the Over 2.5 Goals bet is to back both teams to score at [2.22]. With this bet, you're covering the 1-1 draw.

Best Bet: Ivory Coast v Burkina Faso Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.32].
Other Recommended Bet: Ivory Coast -1.0 Asian Handicap @ [1.83].

* James Eastham's tips for betting.betfair.com made a profit at both the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America

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Ivory Coast v Sudan: Tournament favourites to make winning start

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ivory Coast has some outstanding attacking talent in their squad

"Of course, all tournaments throw up upsets, but there’s no point opposing Ivory Coast because there’s no evidence that Sudan are good enough to earn a win or draw. The problem, as always with short-priced favourites, is how to make them pay."

James Eastham believes Ivory Coast will avoid any slip-ups against rank outsiders Sudan on Sunday afternoon.

Ivory Coast v Sudan, KO 16:00 GMT, Eurosport, Match Odds: Ivory Coast 1.23, Sudan 19.5, The Draw 6.6.

Even the most casual observer of African football would describe this as a mismatch. A look at the markets tells you how far apart Ivory Coast and Sudan are.

Francois Zahoui's Ivory Coast are [1.28] to win Group B, and as short as [2.74] to win the tournament. Sudan are [17.0] outsiders to win the pool, and last in the outright betting at [300.0].

They may hail from the same continent but a glance through the two squads tells you these nations inhabit different footballing worlds. Didier Drogba, Yaya Toure and Cheick Tiote are among the most high-profile members of Ivory Coast's party; in contrast, Sudan's 23-man group was drawn entirely from their domestic league, with all but four players coming from Al Hilal and Al Merreikh.

Of course, all tournaments throw up upsets, but there's no point opposing Ivory Coast because there's no evidence that Sudan are good enough to earn a win or draw. The problem, as always with short-priced favourites, is how to make them pay. The [1.23] on Ivory Coast winning in 90 minutes will be too skinny for most bettors, so I've scoured the markets for more appealing alternatives.

My favourite three selections are Ivory Coast to be leading at HT and FT ([1.71]), Ivory Coast with a -1.5&-2.0 start on the Asian handicap ([1.96]) and Ivory Coast to win to nil ([1.67]). Thirteen of 23 wins (57%) have been to nil in the first round of matches at Africa Cup of Nations tournaments dating back to 2004, but I'd make the chances of Ivory Coast winning while keeping a clean sheet here bigger because Sudan are weak opposition.

Backing Ivory Coast (whose chances of victory are analysed by Michael Lintorn here) on the Asian handicap is also a good call, as you'll make money as long as Ivory Coast win by two goals or more. Considering the attacking riches in their squad - Drogba, Seydou Doumbia, Salomon Kalou, Gervinho, Max Gradel and others - they are capable of running up a three- or four-goal winning scoreline.

Best Bet: Ivory Coast to win to nil @ [1.67]
Other Recommended Bet: Ivory Coast -1.5&-2.0 Asian handicap @ [1.96]

* James Eastham's tips for betting.betfair.com made a profit at both the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America

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