Champions League Opta Stats: Draxler to see Schalke through

"Galatasaray have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 away games in the Champions League."
Recommended Bet: Back Julian Draxler to score @ 3.9n/a

Using Opta's insights, Christian Crowther provides some tips to go with the midweek Champions League second-leg action...

Barcelona v AC Milan, Tuesday 19:45, ITV

AC Milan's last seven goals in the Champions League have all been in the second half
AC Milan's domestic resurgence culminated in the best result of the knockout stages so far when they managed to beat Barcelona without conceding an away goal. In light of a trip to the intimidating Camp Nou, the tie is far from over, with qualification possibly hinging on one vital away goal. Five of the last eight goals that the Spaniards have conceded arrived after the break so, if the Italians are to notch, it seems likely to be reserved for the second 45.
Recommended Bet: Back second half to contain more goals @ 2.26/5 

AC Milan have conceded at least three goals in four of their last six away games in the Champions League knockout stages
Stats such as these do not bode well for Milan who have a bad habit of going down in flames when making away trips in the latter stages of the competition. On this occasion, Milan's healthy advantage could see them home but you'd expect Lionel Messi and co to register at least a couple. The Catalans have averaged over three goals a match in the nine home games since they last drew a blank against Benfica.
Recommended Bet: Back Barcelona to score three or more goals @ 2.1211/10  

Schalke v Galatasaray, Tuesday 19:45, Sky Sports 2

Galatasaray have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 11 away games in the Champions League
This tie is hanging on a knife edge following a tense 1-1 draw in Turkey. The slight advantage lies with the Schalke and the German hosts will be buzzing after completing their third straight Bundesliga win in a row against second-placed Borussia Dortmund at the Veltins-Arena on Saturday. With attacking midfielder Julian Draxler hitting scoring form with three goals in his last two starts, you'd expect to see a confident Schalke side register a few more goals, despite Klaas-Jan Huntelaar's absence.
Recommended Bet: Back Julian Draxler to score @ 3.9n/a  

Galatasaray have scored only eight goals in seven Champions League games this season, the lowest among the 16 teams still left in the competition
Clearly, one of the hindrances to qualification for the Turkish visitors is their inability to score multiple goals. In stark contrast to their hosts, Galatasaray have warmed up for this one with two really poor results in which they have twice failed to trouble the scoresheet. Joint top scorer in this year's competition Burak Yilmaz appears the only man capable of scoring for the Turks, after notching seven of their eight goals to date.
Recommended Bet: Back Schalke to win to nil @ 3.39/4

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Team Betfair Tearing Up The GSOP Through Events #1 and #2

Grand Series of Poker VIII / Matthew Pitt / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Dollars, lovely dollars all heading to Team Betfair players!

Team Betfair have been fast out of the blocks and have been tearing up the first couple of events. The running total so far is 590 entrants, 99 cashes and a massive $148,461.68 in prize money being won

The eighth edition of the Grand Series of Poker (GSOP) kicked off on Sunday 26 February and already Betfair Poker players are absolutely destroying the series and winning ridiculous sums of cash! Even this humble scribbler is in profit, what on Earth is happening?!

GSOP Event #1: $190+$10 No Limit Hold'em Deepstack $500,000 Guaranteed

The first GSOP VIII event started at 2000 CET on Feb. 26 with the $190+$10 No Limit Hold'em Deepstack event that carried a massive $500,000 guarantee on it. I almost missed the start as I was travelling back from EPT Copenhagen but managed to get back home with mere minutes to spare. Even if I had missed the start it would not have been too bad because the structure was so amazing; 5,000 chips and 20-minute blinds.

The slow structure must have appealed to my donkish ways and I somehow managed to make it into the money places, eventually crashing in 370/2,419 for a more than welcome $282.20. The run could have possibly been even deeper but I made a bad push in the last hand where I three-bet jammed over an UTG raise for 15bb whilst holding AhJh and ran into AxKx but it was fun, if a little tiring!

It was not only little old me representing Team Betfair who made it to the money, there were 75 of my fellow Betfair Poker players who cashed so a massive congratulations to you all! Special mentions have to go to fellow Brit harwell2 and Romania's FIREZUCU who both finished in the top 20 places (19 and 15 respectively) but an even bigger shoutout has to go to richard5174 who eventually busted out in fifth place for a score of $18,510.20.

But he was not the best placed Betfair Poker player, no, that honour went to mar1ach1 who almost took down the first event but fell just short in second place. The German lost heads-up to pasikko but I'm sure the $49,049.64 he picked up for second place will help numb the pain a little! It has been quite the couple of months for mar1ach1 as he also finsihed second in the Jan. 23 Champion Chip $200,000 guaranteed for $24,462! Congratulations!

Event # 1 in numbers

Total entrants: 2,419
Total prize pool: $500,000
Total Team Betfair entrants: 417 (17.24% of field)
Total Team Betfair ITM finishes: 76
Total Team Betfair prize money: $112,457.23 (22.49% of prize pool)

GSOP Event #2: $50+$4 No Limit Hold'em Turbo Unlimited Rebuys $75,000 Guaranteed

If it was up to me I would not speak about my performance in Event #2 because the tournament went terribly. As my Betfair account balance was looking extremely sorry for itself I was forced to play in a rebuy tournament with just a single bullet, a far from ideal scenario.

I had managed to build my stack up to 2,985 and was laughing in the face of those who had rebought but they were to have the last laugh. The blinds were 25/50 and I was under the gun with a beautiful pair of black aces, the best kind I'll have you know. I raise four times the big blind hoping for some nutcase to come over the top of my donkey raise and the ploy worked as Linbeo three-bet to 1,000. Mission accomplished; or so I thought. The big blind, Betfair player Slayerpl then moved all in for 3,000 in total and I obviously shipped in the rest of my stack and the cards were flipped over.

Me: AcAs
Slayerpl: QdJd
Linbeo: KdKc

I had around 67% which is all fine and dandy until the bloody flop came down 8s-7c-Ks. Yeah thanks for that. The turn and river were the 2c and 4c respectively and the 9,010 chip pot was shipped to Linbeo. It would not have hurt as much if he had put them to good use but he didn't even cash.

So my "Pud won a GSOP" brag attempt ended in me finishing a very disappointing 815/895 but it could have been so much better. God bless tournament poker.

But these articles aren't just about me they are about my fellow Team Betfair players too and 23 of you did me proud by making it into the money places. Giro_413 was the first to pick up some moolah, $229.20 to be exact and this amount started to gradually increase right up until j_sideris of Greece's 18th place finish that saw him scoop $898.72 for his efforts.

But again his performance was not the best of Team Betfair because we had two players on the final table! The player who sounds like the seagulls from Finding Nemo, MYMMYMMYM, almost took down Event #2 but he busted out in third place for a bankroll boosting $11,399.92.

Usually this would be enough to get the non-existant but still lucrative title of Team Betfair Player of the Tournament that I have just this second made up but not in this event because jumpjump99 of Denmark finished in second place for a cool $15,923.69. He narrowly missed out on glory when he was defeated by the_pean heads-up. Can Team Betfair Players please stop finishing second! A massive congratulations to everyone who made it into the money places, especially our final table members.

Event #2 in numbers

Total entrants: 895
Total prize pool: $134,000
Total Team Betfair entrants: 173 (19.33% of field)
Total Team Betfair ITM finishes: 23
Total Team Betfair prize money: $36,004.45 (26.87% of prize pool)

As you can see Team Betfair have been fast out of the blocks and have been tearing up the first couple of events. The running total so far is 590 entrants, 99 cashes and a massive $148,461.68 in prize money being won; that is 23.42% of the prize pools so far!

Keep up the good work boys and girls and hopefully we can write about more Team Betfair exploits in the coming days!

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Mali v Ivory Coast: Favourites ready to cruise through to final

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Didier Drogba and team-mates celebrate a goal in their 3-0 quarter-final win

"Do Mali have the firepower to breach the Ivory Coast defence and make a game of this semi-final? My feeling is yes, even though Mali have managed just four goals in four games. They have more attacking talent than that goals tally suggests – and, as they're rank outsiders, all the pressure is on Ivory Coast."

James Eastham expects Ivory Coast to win but says their magnificent defensive record is about to end.

Mali v Ivory Coast, 19:00 GMT, British Eurosport, Match Odds: Mali 9.2, Ivory Coast 1.51, The Draw 4.3.

Ivory Coast were pre-season favourites to lift the trophy and have retained top position in the outright betting all the way through the tournament.

After recording three wins out of three in the group phase the Ivorians beat Equatorial Guinea 3-0 to take their place in the last four.

Despite the wonderful attacking talent in their squad Ivory Coast's progress has been built on a defence that has yet to concede a goal. Progress has been functional rather than flamboyant, but it's working for a nation determined to end their trophy drought.

"When we played the Nations Cup in 2010, 2006 and other years, we played great football and we didn't win anything," St Etienne attacker Max Gradel told the BBC. "But today the most important thing - as the coach tells us every day - is winning and it doesn't matter how you win.

"Everything our coach is telling us to do, we're doing it. On the pitch and off the pitch he's the boss."

Do Mali have the firepower to breach the Ivory Coast defence and make a game of this semi-final? My feeling is yes, even though Mali have managed just four goals in four games. They have more attacking talent than that goals tally suggests - and, as they're rank outsiders, all the pressure is on Ivory Coast.

That's why I would avoid the Ivory Coast to win to nil market at [1.91] or Ivory Coast to keep a clean sheet at [1.81]. Mali will throw everything at the favourites, and have better attacking players than Equatorial Guinea, who failed to find the net in the quarter-finals.

My main selection on the game would be Over 2.5 Goals at [2.28]. This is because Ivory Coast scored three times in the last eight and I give Mali a good chance of scoring, but also because of the stats from this tournament and semi-finals down the years. Fourteen of 28 (50%) matches in the competition so far have featured over 2.5 goals, and six of the last 12 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have had three goals or more. The odds-against price is therefore worth taking.

My second bet would be to oppose Ivory Coast keeping a clean sheet. The market offers a good price on the favourites conceding because of their excellent defensive record to date. You can back 'No' in the Ivory Coast Clean Sheet? market at [2.18].

Finally, there is historic evidence that one the semi-finals will result in a comfortable victory. Five of the last 12 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have seen a side triumph by three goals or more (two 3-0 scorelines, two 4-0s and a 4-1). Therefore you ought to consider backing Ivory Coast -1.5 Asian handicap at around [2.25] if you expect Didier Drogba and co. to get through.

Best Bet: Mali v Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.28].
Other Recommended Bet: Ivory Coast not to Keep a Clean Sheet @ [2.18].

P&L: £10 staked on all James Eastham's tips during the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America would have netted you a profit of £223.70 (33.4% ROI)

James Eastham expects this semi-final to go with the market even though Ghana have disappointed so far....

Feeling like Jack Nicholson in an Antonioni film, making do with basic levels of French in Gabon and predicting the demise of Mali at the hands of tournament favourites the Ivory Coast. It's Jonathan Wilson's diary....

Jonathan Wilson discusses a weekend of quarter-final matches and explains why he is especially look forward to Sunday......

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Carling Cup Results: Cardiff through on penalties

Carling Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Peter Whittingham watches closely as Anthony Gardner heads the ball into his own net

"Had the Palace players known in advance how poorly they were at taking spot-kicks they may not have bothered hanging on for dear life as exhaustion kicked in during extra-time."

Cardiff knocked out Crystal Palace on penalties but are far from being favourites on Betfair's Carling Cup winner market, despite being the only team guaranteed a place in the final.

Cardiff City are through to the Carling Cup final after doing things the hard way at home to Crystal Palace. The Eagles had a one goal lead going into the second leg courtesy of centre-back Anthony Gardner and the same player was in the limelight again when he headed into his own net after good work on the wing and a fine cross by Craig Conway. Things got worse for the visitors when Palace captain Paddy McCarthy got sent off for a second booking for a foul on Kenny Miller with 13 minutes left on the clock but there were no more goals after 90 minutes. Cardiff were matched at [1.88] to win the game and [2.9] to win without conceding.

Extra-time saw plenty of tired legs trying to shut up shop for Palace and play for penalties and despite having a few decent chances, Cardiff couldn't get the break-through. Had the Palace players known in advance how poorly they were at taking spot-kicks they may not have bothered hanging on for dear life as exhaustion kicked in during extra-time. Jermaine Easter, Sean Scannell and Jonathan Parr all missed for Palace after Kenny Miller had failed himself with Cardiff's first spot-kick and having scored three of their four, Cardiff were through after being backed at [3.6] on the to qualify market. A win on penalties was matched at [28.0] in the "method of victory" market.

Cardiff are [6.4] to lift the Carling Cup behind favourites Liverpool (1.76), who take a 1-0 lead into the second leg of their tie against Manchester City (3.5). Read a preview of Wednesday night's match here.

Michael Lintorn expects Manchester City to exit their third competition in 50 days when fighting to overturn a 0-1 Carling Cup semi-final deficit at Anfield......

A 1-0 defeat at Selhurst Park leaves Cardiff with it all to do in the second leg of their Carling Cup semi-final, but Michael Lintorn thinks they will deliver......

There are rumours that Liverpool are about to purchase one of the most hyped stars in the Football League, in the process weakening a side who they might face at Wembley......

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Liverpool v Man City: Strong defensive show to see Reds through

Carling Cup / Michael Lintorn / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kenny Dalglish has twice beaten Man City twice since returning to Anfield

"Manchester City are without a victory in nine trips to Anfield and a 1-0 away first-leg lead has been converted on six of the seven occasions that it has been achieved at this stage in the competition."

Michael Lintorn expects Manchester City to exit their third competition in 50 days when fighting to overturn a 0-1 Carling Cup semi-final deficit at Anfield...

Liverpool v Man City, Wednesday 19:45 BST, Sky Sports 1, Match odds: Liverpool [2.7], Man City [2.82], The Draw [3.55]

This writer finds much to fault in terms of Kenny Dalglish's performance since returning to Liverpool, including his transfer dealings - for which Damien Comolli is also culpable - points dropped to lowly clubs, inconsistent criticism of officials and handling of the Luis Suarez affair.

One area in which he has consistently delivered in his second stint however is in getting the best out of his players in big-match environments, which is perhaps why he took the unusual step of publicly berating them after Saturday's 3-1 defeat away to Bolton.

Under Dalglish, the Reds have won two and drawn another of their four meetings with Manchester City, gone three for three against Chelsea and beaten both Manchester United and Arsenal.

And though their record at Anfield has been attacked because of the frequency with which they are held by less expensively assembled squads, they have only actually lost once in 24 games there, and require just a draw to vindicate odds of [1.41] on them qualifying.

The Opta stats give Liverpool fans plenty of reason to be optimistic, noting that Manchester City are without a victory in nine trips to Anfield and revealing that a 1-0 away first-leg lead has been converted on six of the seven occasions that it has been achieved at this stage in the competition.

Further cause for confidence is provided by the fact that, at the time of writing (ahead of the Cardiff v Crystal Palace decider), the last six semi-final second legs have all been won by the hosts.

Roberto Mancini's side - seen off by Manchester United at this point two years ago - have claimed only two wins in seven on their travels - both 1-0. And with Mario Balotelli expected to start a four-match ban for an alleged stamp on Scott Parker, [2.7] looks a hefty price on Liverpool enjoying a seventh successive cup triumph.

Over/under 2.5 goals

A Steven Gerrard penalty was all that separated the teams in the initial tie as the Premier League leaders struggled to create clear-cut chances and Liverpool defended strongly, bucking the recent tendency for this fixture to produce over 2.5 goals.

A clash between the two at Anfield is even less likely to be high scoring, with the Reds themselves managing to net more than once there just twice in nine games, and one of those against Oldham.

Seven of their last eight there facing top-flight opponents have featured two goals or fewer and with Dalglish no doubt prepared to again put plenty of bodies between Pepe Reina and Sergio Aguero and co, under 2.5 goals appeals at [1.83].

Liverpool clean sheet

Having fired in every domestic encounter prior to their Boxing Day draw at West Brom, Manchester City have been shut out in two of their last three on the road, striking once in their last 358 minutes (almost six hours) of away action. Liverpool are [2.9] to add to that frustration.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [1.83]
Other Recommended Bet: Liverpool to keep a clean sheet @ [2.9]

Cardiff knocked out Crystal Palace on penalties but are far from being favourites on Betfair's Carling Cup winner market, despite being the only team guaranteed a place in the final....

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