Carling Cup Final Opta Stats: Cardiff v Liverpool

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 23 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Luis Suarez played a significent part in Liverpool's run to the final

Opta offer practically every insight you could possibly require about Sunday's Carling Cup Final between Cardiff and Liverpool...

The last meeting between these sides was in the Carling Cup fourth round in October 2007, when the Reds won 2-1 at Anfield.

Prior to this, Cardiff had won their last five meetings with Liverpool, scoring 18 goals in total in these games.

The Bluebirds have won nine of their last 12 meetings with Liverpool in all competitions, though 11 of these came before 1960.

Cardiff are the only side who can say that they have won their last five league meetings with Liverpool (no other side has won even their last three).

Liverpool are only the second side to reach the final of the League Cup despite playing just one game at home, after Arsenal in 2006-07.

Liverpool are one of only two sides to have won a League Cup Final on a penalty shootout, beating second-tier Birmingham 5-4 on spot-kicks in 2001.

Kenny Dalglish's side have won the League Cup more times than any other side (seven, Aston Villa five).

A win in this match would see Liverpool equal Manchester United's record for most English domestic cup wins (15: seven League Cup, seven FA Cup so far).

This is the fourth time Liverpool have faced a lower-tier opponent in the League Cup Final: they won one 2-1 (Bolton 1995), one on penalties (Birmingham 2001), and one 2-1 in a replay after the first game was drawn 1-1 (West Ham 1981).

Just one of the last seven sides from outside the top tier to reach the League Cup Final has won (Sheffield Wednesday in 1991).

All three of Cardiff's previous cup final appearances have finished 1-0 (one win, two defeats, all FA Cup).

There have been five previous winners of the League Cup from outside the top tier, out of 15 who have reached the final.

Their 2-0 win over Blackburn in the quarter-finals this season was Cardiff's first win in 11 League Cup meetings with top-flight sides.

Cardiff have lost three of their last four matches in all competitions.

Luis Suárez has bagged three goals in three Carling Cup appearances this season.

José Reina is the only player to have played in all of Liverpool's Carling Cup games this season (6).

Andrew Taylor is the only Cardiff player to have featured in every Carling Cup game this season (7).

Swansea will be hoping to take advantage of a Stoke side whose recent cup exploits have had a negative impact on their Premier League form......

Norwich's recent home form ensures that this should prove a difficult test for Premier League title hopefuls Manchester United......

Tottenham's north London derby record has improved massively of late, and with Arsenal struggling in big games this season, that trend could continue......

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Carling Cup Results: Bellamy fires Liverpool into Wembley final

Carling Cup / Maxliu / 25 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Gerrard celebrates his penalty

"Bellamy received the ball from Dirk Kuyt, exchanged passes with Glen Johnson, and fired past Hart."

Excellent display from Welshman as he knocks Manchester City out to set up a Carling Cup Final against Cardiff...

Liverpool were matched at [2.66] to reach the Carling Cup final before Craig Bellamy scored the goal that means the Reds will meet his old club Cardiff at Wembley on February 26.

Kenny Dalglish's men, who are [1.18] to win the tournament, carried a one goal advantage into tonight's second leg at Anfield, following their victory at the Ethiad Stadium a fortnight ago. After half-an-hour, however, the tie was level as Nigel De Jong curled in a fantastic effort from 25 yards out. It was a delight to watch, especially for those who backed the Dutchman to be first goalscorer at [140.00].

The home side were level less than ten minutes later when Micah Richards was unlucky to concede a penalty. The ball definitely struck his hand inside the box but whether he was able to avoid touching Daniel Agger's shot is another matter. Steve Gerrard didn't care as he dispatched the ball past the excellent Joe Hart to restore Liverpool's advantage.

After 67 minutes Edin Dzeko made it 2-2 on aggregate but parity was short lived as Bellamy received the ball from Dirk Kuyt, exchanged passes with Glen Johnson, and fired past Hart. After that City surged forward but Liverpool held their nerve, Daniel Agger heroically throwing himself in front of a shot from Dzeko as the visitors tried to force extra-time.

It wasn't to be, Liverpool held out for the draw, which was matched at [4.6], and are now into their first Wembley final since 1996. For Dalglish, who looked emotional at the final whistle, it is a chance to start restoring the glory to Anfield, as he promised to when he took over a year ago.

Michael Lintorn expects Manchester City to exit their third competition in 50 days when fighting to overturn a 0-1 Carling Cup semi-final deficit at Anfield......

Cardiff knocked out Crystal Palace on penalties but are far from being favourites on Betfair's Carling Cup winner market, despite being the only team guaranteed a place in the final....

A 1-0 defeat at Selhurst Park leaves Cardiff with it all to do in the second leg of their Carling Cup semi-final, but Michael Lintorn thinks they will deliver......

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Carling Cup Results: Cardiff through on penalties

Carling Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Peter Whittingham watches closely as Anthony Gardner heads the ball into his own net

"Had the Palace players known in advance how poorly they were at taking spot-kicks they may not have bothered hanging on for dear life as exhaustion kicked in during extra-time."

Cardiff knocked out Crystal Palace on penalties but are far from being favourites on Betfair's Carling Cup winner market, despite being the only team guaranteed a place in the final.

Cardiff City are through to the Carling Cup final after doing things the hard way at home to Crystal Palace. The Eagles had a one goal lead going into the second leg courtesy of centre-back Anthony Gardner and the same player was in the limelight again when he headed into his own net after good work on the wing and a fine cross by Craig Conway. Things got worse for the visitors when Palace captain Paddy McCarthy got sent off for a second booking for a foul on Kenny Miller with 13 minutes left on the clock but there were no more goals after 90 minutes. Cardiff were matched at [1.88] to win the game and [2.9] to win without conceding.

Extra-time saw plenty of tired legs trying to shut up shop for Palace and play for penalties and despite having a few decent chances, Cardiff couldn't get the break-through. Had the Palace players known in advance how poorly they were at taking spot-kicks they may not have bothered hanging on for dear life as exhaustion kicked in during extra-time. Jermaine Easter, Sean Scannell and Jonathan Parr all missed for Palace after Kenny Miller had failed himself with Cardiff's first spot-kick and having scored three of their four, Cardiff were through after being backed at [3.6] on the to qualify market. A win on penalties was matched at [28.0] in the "method of victory" market.

Cardiff are [6.4] to lift the Carling Cup behind favourites Liverpool (1.76), who take a 1-0 lead into the second leg of their tie against Manchester City (3.5). Read a preview of Wednesday night's match here.

Michael Lintorn expects Manchester City to exit their third competition in 50 days when fighting to overturn a 0-1 Carling Cup semi-final deficit at Anfield......

A 1-0 defeat at Selhurst Park leaves Cardiff with it all to do in the second leg of their Carling Cup semi-final, but Michael Lintorn thinks they will deliver......

There are rumours that Liverpool are about to purchase one of the most hyped stars in the Football League, in the process weakening a side who they might face at Wembley......

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Premier League Bets: What next for the two Carling Cup finalists?

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 02 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Not only does defeat in the Carling Cup final suggest Arsenal wil suffer a slump but tey will have to make do without Robin van Persie

"For Arsenal, who have now gone 21 major competitions without a trophy, the future may not be too bright either. Having missed skipper Cesc Fabregas in Sunday’s final, they now face a critical sequence of matches without Robin Van Persie and Theo Walcott."

They produced a cracking match for the neutral and Birmingham were worthy winners but what do the stats tell us about what lies in store for these two after Sunday's result?

One statistic leapt off the page after Birmingham's victory over Arsenal in the Carling Cup final: winners of that competition in the past decade have improved by 10 per cent from the final to the end of the season.

If it was true, Birmingham would be almost certain to add Premier League survival to their list of achievements this season because a 10 per cent improvement would take them to 45 points by the end of the season.

The ten-year average for Carling Cup winners does indeed reveal a 10 per cent improvement but, unfortunately, that headline statistic does not stand up to closer scrutiny because most of the improvement was achieved by a few top-performing sides. For example, Manchester United's points average was 2.14 per game before last season's Carling Cup win but rose to 2.5 in their remaining league games (a 17 per cent increase).

If we strip out Carling Cup-winning teams that finished in the top six, the stats don't look anything like as good. Since the Premier League was formed, there have been eight Carling Cup winners that went on to finish outside the top six and five of those eight regressed after their cup triumph.

The overall points average for those eight teams dropped and, of the five that regressed, four did so by ten per cent or more - precisely the opposite of what that eye-catching headline statistic told us.

If Birmingham regress by ten per cent between now and the end of the season, they will finish on 42 points, which should be enough to survive. If their performance levels drop any further, relegation is a real possibility.

And there is another telling statistic that suggests Birmingham will suffer a hangover from their cup celebrations when they host West Brom in a crucial relegation match on Saturday. Of the previous eight Carling Cup winners that finished outside the top six, only one won their next league match.

For Arsenal, who have now gone 21 major competitions without a trophy, the future may not be too bright either. Having missed skipper Cesc Fabregas in Sunday's final, they now face a critical sequence of matches without Robin Van Persie and Theo Walcott.

While Barcelona will be particularly happy they don't have to face the lightning-quick Walcott in the return leg of their Champions League tie on March 8, the knee injury suffered by Van Persie is more quantifiably a major blow for Arsenal.

This season Arsenal have won four out of five in the Premier League when Van Persie has scored and they are unbeaten in the nine games he has started, winning seven. Their win rate without him drops from 78 per cent to 56 per cent, which is a significant decrease for a team chasing trophies. As the Dutchman is set to miss the Barcelona return leg and a possible FA Cup quarter-final against Manchester United, Arsenal's trophy chances could be significantly reduced in his absence.

And there is another reason to doubt Arsenal's ability to bounce back from their Carling Cup defeat. In three of their past four trophyless seasons, the Gunners have slumped dramatically from the start of March to the end of the season, with their Premier League points average falling by at least 16 per cent in those three seasons.

Perhaps the explanation lies in their young and relatively shallow squad, but their efforts to continue their trophy quest are not going to be helped by the latest spate of injuries to key players.

Sunderland are the visitors to the Emirates Stadium on Saturday and at the odds it is worth chancing that they can get a result against wounded Arsenal.

Recommended bets

Lay Birmingham v West Brom at [2.42]
Lay Arsenal v Sunderland at [1.52]

He's looked at the fixtures, he's predicted the results and he's done the maths. Now Gary Boswell tells us who he expects to be playing Championship football next season....

They produced a cracking match for the neutral and Birmingham were worthy winners but what do the stats tell us about what lies in store for these two after Sunday's result?...

Chelsea stunned league leaders Manchester United by coming from a goal down to win 2-1 on a night of great entertainment at the top of the Premier League....

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Carling Cup Results: Birmingham shock Arsenal and punters

Carling Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 27 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

You beauty. Lee Bowyer can't wait to congratulate match-winner Obafemi Martins

"At the start of this competition a Birmingham win was certainly not on the cards according to the Betfair market; they traded at a high of 65.0 when it started. As for Arsenal, the wait for some silverware goes on."

Obafemi Martins and Ben Foster were the heroes as Birmingham won in the most unlikely of circumstances to further prolong the Arsenal trophy drought.

Birmingham caused one of the all-time upsets in League Cup finals by beating Arsenal courtesy of a late, late Obafemi Martins winner.

It was the Blues who took the lead via the giant Nikola Zigic (matched at 18.5 to be first scorer) very much against the run of play but when Robin van Persie levelled the scores with a fine strike it seemed like Arsenal's momentum would inevitably lead to a second sooner or later.

It was an entertaining final with Samir Nasri the stand-out performer for Arsenal whilst Ben Foster in goal for Birmingham won the Man Of The Match award after a string of fine saves that kept the likes of Nasri and van Persie at bay.

The Gunners had traded at just [1.41] pre-match to win in 90 minutes and at the start of injury-time the draw was trading at just [1.22] but a calamitous defensive mix-up at the heart of Arsenal's defence offered Martins the simplest of tap-ins and the Nigerian made no mistake.

Alex McLeish's side were backed at a high of 28.0 In-Play on the match odds market and at 40.0 to win 2-1; a half-time draw with the underdogs winning at full-time was matched at [23.0].

At the start of this competition a Birmingham win was certainly not on the cards according to the Betfair market; they traded at a high of [65.0] when it started. As for Arsenal, the wait for some silverware goes on.

In the Premier League Liverpool were comprehensively beaten 3-1 by West Ham whilst Manchester City once again dropped points from a winning position. Roberto Mancini's men were matched at [1.23] after going a goal up at home to Fulham but conceded just after half-time; the draw was backed at [6.2].

Obafemi Martins and Ben Foster were the heroes as Birmingham won in the most unlikely of circumstances to further prolong the Arsenal trophy drought....

Arsenal have a fantastic chance to finally win somethinng whilst Birmingham will feel that in a one-off match at Wembley it could well be their day. This should make for a good contest. Let's try to make some momey from...

Michael Cox talks tactics, team selection and best betting oportunities ahead of Sunday's Carling Cup final....

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Carling Cup Final Betting: Arsenal v Birmingham

Carling Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 26 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Robin van Persie can't stop scoring since returning from injury

"Tipping up van Persie to open the scoring gives me little or no pleasure but it’s hard to look beyond this man. He’ll be captaining the side, on free-kick and penalty duty and has scored 13 goals in 21 appearances since returning from injury."

Arsenal have a fantastic chance to finally win somethinng whilst Birmingham will feel that in a one-off match at Wembley it could well be their day. This should make for a good contest. Let's try to make some momey from it.

It's funny how these things go. A few years back Arsene Wenger treated this competition as a cross between an unwelcome distraction and an opportunity to blood youngsters or give a few reserves a run out. But as the trophies have dried up over the years he's fielded increasingly strong sides and he'll be treating Sunday's final as a his number one priority at the moment, such is the pressure on his side to win something, anything.

He'll be fielding his best possible eleven though that won't of course include the injured Cesc Fabregas, who very bizarrely found out he wouldn't be playing for sure after reading about it on Arsenal's official website. You would have thought someone would have told him that before the news was broken to the general public but it seems Arsenal really do like to do things a bit differently these days. Theo Walcott (who opened the scoring in their 2-1 defeat to Chelsea in the 2008 final) is also out injured, as is Thomas Vermaelen and Lukas Fabianski.

Birmingham are struggling in the league a little but there are weaker sides than them in the Premier League this year and they're unlikely to be relegated. Either way, any relegation fears are for Alex McLeish to worry about another time. This is the Blues' big day and even though most people are writing them off before a ball has been kicked in anger, they'll feel they have a very decent chance of beating the Gunners in a one-off match on neutral ground. Especially as it's the north Londoners, not them, who are under pressure to win. The impressive Scott Dann is a long-term casualty while former Arsenal man Alexander Hleb may also miss out with a knee injury.

Match Odds

I won't rule out Birmingham's chances completely but experience of huge matches counts for a lot and one side have plenty of it and the other not so much. With Robin van Persie in tremendous goalscoring form and spirits still high after that superb comeback against Barcelona, the Gunners should really win this within 90 minutes but they won't necessarily come flying out of the blocks and score early. Arsenal are a patient side who will want to enjoy some solid early possession and we may see a slightly uneventful first half hour. Maybe not what the neutral wants to see but it should give us the opportunity for an In-Play trade which will guarantee us a green book. Lay Arsenal at [1.5] pre-match with a view to backing them at around [1.75] around the 30th minute or so.

Over/Under 2.5 goals

It's hard to use stats here. There's no point looking at numbers in the league for obvious reasons and there's not much point considering how they've fared in the previous rounds as a final is a completely different ball game, so to speak. Birmingham and Arsenal's presence in recent League Cup finals have been very rare in recent times so that doesn't offer us much assistance either. It's evens the pair on this market. If Arsenal score first they're more likely to manage their lead rather than go searching for more like they do in league fixtures and with all due respect to Birmingham, if they do go behind I'm not sure they have the weapons or the belief to fight back. You'll find better bets than under 2.5 goals at [2.0] on Betfair's markets but that selection gets the nod here.

First Goalscorer/To score

Tipping up van Persie to open the scoring gives me little or no pleasure but it's hard to look beyond this man. He'll be captaining the side, on free-kick and penalty duty and has scored 13 goals in 21 appearances since returning from injury. He's not necessarily huge value at 5.0 but he's the overwhelming candidate to grab the first goal for the reasons just stated.

If you're looking for something a little more adventurous you might want to consider Alex Song at around [26.0]. The Cameroon international is a threat from corners and has recently found his way into the opponent's penalty box a lot more than in previous seasons. He's scored five times already this season.

To be shown a card

Despite the importance of the match I don't expect this to be a dirty game. No-one wants to be sent off in a Cup final and referees are perhaps a little more lenient given they're reluctant to spoil a game like this by reducing a team to ten men. Remember the reprieve Nemanja Vidic got last year. That said, Lee Bowyer often treads a fine line between what is acceptable and what isn't and should have walked when the Blues hosted Arsenal in the league just after Christmas. Back the former Leeds man to be shown a card at around [3.0].

Best bet: Back Robin van Persie to be first golascorer at [5.0]
Recommended bet: Back Lee Bowyer to be shown a card at [3.0]

Michael Cox talks tactics, team selection and best betting oportunities ahead of Sunday's Carling Cup final....

Arsenal have a fantastic chance to finally win somethinng whilst Birmingham will feel that in a one-off match at Wembley it could well be their day. This should make for a good contest. Let's try to make some momey from...

Birmingham City needed extra-time to get the job done but they got there in end and will face Arsenal in the final of the Carling Cup. Meanwhile, Liverpool secured a good win at home to Fulham....

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Carling Nations Cup Betting: Rep of Ireland v Wales

Internationals / Jaymes Monte / 07 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Speed is without a number of key players for his first match in charge.

"Both teams have scored in Ireland’s last four matches while Wales have conceded in each of their last six games, including in a home friendly against Luxembourg."

Gary Speed takes charge of his first game as Wales manager for the Carling Nations Cup opener against Republic of Ireland.

Having been in the job for less than two months Speed is getting his first taste of the frustrations attached to international management. In typical midweek-international-friendly-style a whole spate of first team regulars have pulled out of the Wales squad.

Aaron Ramsey, David Edwards and Ched Evans have withdrawn from an initial squad that was already without Craig Bellamy, Gareth Bale, Boaz Myhill, Craig Morgan and Danny Gabbidon.

Ireland manager Giovanni Trapattoni isn't without similar problems. Robbie Keane and James McCarthy have both pulled out of the Irish squad due to injury.

Although the participating nations, and Sky, are doing their best to promote the Carling Nations Cup as a worthwhile tournament in its own right, the plethora of withdrawals only serves to highlight that the tournamnet is merely a combination glorified friendlies.

And therefore bettors should treat them as such. Republic of Ireland are made the [1.72] favourites to win this Tuesday's opening fixtures with Wales at [6.6] and the draw at [3.7].

The last time the two sides met in Ireland back in 2007 in a European Championships qualifier the home side won 1-0 courtesy of a Stephen Ireland strike. A late Jason Koumas penalty salvaged a point for the Welsh when rivalries were renewed in Cardiff six months later.

Given the absence of so many key players for Wales any play on the match odds should certainly be leaning towards an Ireland victory.

In the goals betting markets over 2.5 goals is priced at [2.3] with unders around [1.75]. Both teams have scored in Ireland's last four matches while Wales have conceded in each of their last six games, including in a home friendly against Luxembourg.

Both teams to score in this match is priced at [2.0] while the over 2.5 selection certainly looks to hold the value for those interested in punting on the goals markets.

Although Speed's task as manager of Wales is to rebuild the side for future years Republic of Ireland are very much in the hunt for qualification for Euro 2012. Trapattoni's focus will centre around establishing his strongest side for next month's home game against Macedonia.

Best Bet:
Back Over 2.5 goals @ [2.3]

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