Big Saturday Multiple: MTK eyeing final Europa League place

Jonno Turner casts his eye over action across the continent as he bids to select three value picks to make up his Big Saturday Multiple - at odds of 7s...

We're off to Scandinavia for our first pick of this three team multiple - and Landskrona host IK Brage at the Landskrona IP, looking to extend some impressive home form.

The home side line up for this clash sitting ninth in the Superettan,  but their recent results on their own patch somewhat belie that position - and they have lost just one of their last seven outings in front of their own fans.

Jorgen Pettersson's side have managed three clean sheets from five at home, and will be keen to maintain that strong defensive record as they face second bottom Brage.

The visitors go into this clash in miserable form, and have lost six of their last seven encounters home and away.

Conny Karlsson's charges are already a little but cut adrift from the rest of the division - and just five points from their opening five games this campaign suggests that the Borlange side could be in for a long, hard season.

They will be desperate to avoid recording a fourth consecutive defeat away from the Domnarvsvallen, but I reckon their hosts' momentum will be too much for them to handle.

Bet 1: Landskrona @ 1.75

Switching our attentions to Hungary now, and MTK Budapest welcome Debrecen to the Stadion Hidegkuti Nandor.

The hosts are in mixed form of late, and just two wins from their last eight sees them priced slightly bigger than usual here.

But their results on their own patch have been consistently impressive, and five wins from their last half a dozen in front of their own fans stands them in good stead this afternoon.

Four clean sheets from five at home indicates that Jozsef Garami's newly promoted side are adjusting well to life in the top tier, and they currently sit fifth in the table - just three points off third place, which would qualify them for European competition.

That makes this final home clash even more important for the Blue and Whites, and they'll be looking to burst out of the traps in this game.

Visitors Debrecen travel to Budapest sitting just one place behind their hosts, but suffering from inconsistency on the road, as is underlined by two wins from eight.

Elemer Kondas' won the title last year, but have struggled to repeat that success this year, and have missed out on the Europa League places this time around - which suggests that they may not have the motivation to match their hosts.

Bet 2: MTK Budapest @ 2.1

To the Swedish top tier now, and the Allsvenskan - as in-form Mjallby line up against bottom side Halmstads at the Strandvallen.

Anders Torstensson's side go into this clash sitting fifth in the table, and will be desperate to secure another three points in order to heap further pressure on the top four.

And four unbeaten on their own patch, consisting of three wins and a draw, will give the Hallevik side much confidence ahead of this encounter.

They have notched a whopping 10 goals in their last three games in front of their own fans, and that suggests that much of their their threat lies in the final third - particularly the likes of key attacking figures Kristian Haynes and Markus Ekenberg.

Visitors Halmstads travel to Blekinge County having won just one of their last 10 games, and that leaves them propping up the rest of the division - having accumulated eight points in that time.

Boss Jens Gustafsson will be feeling the pressure of life in the top tier following their promotion from the Superettan last campaign - and six without a win away from home suggests that HBK might struggle in this one.

Two 1-0 defeats on the bounce will have knocked confidence in the away dressing room, and a trip to free-scoring Mjallby would not be the choice of the visitors at the moment.

Bet 3: Mjallby @ 1.9

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Watford v Crystal Palace: Two club legends give their verdict on the Playoff Final

"Although Palace defended well against Brighton, I really can’t see Watford not scoring at Wembley. I think the game will get stretched towards the end of normal time and Watford will win it 2-1 (10.09/1)."

- Nick Wright

It's Watford v Crystal Palace in the Championship Playoff Final. Callum Davis spoke to Shaun Derry and Nick Wright, two men who know what it's like to reach the Premier League through the playoffs with Crystal Palace (in 2004) and Watford (in 1999) respectively, about their memories of the showpiece occasion and who they fancy for promotion this time round...

What are your memories of the game?

Shaun Derry (SD): My main memory of the game is that it was incredibly tight. We were coming into the game as underdogs while West Ham had been relegated the previous season and everyone fancied them to go back up. We didn't let any of that talk faze us at all in the build up to the game and our preparation couldn't have been better. The manager, Iain Dowie, kept drilling into us that we were more prepared than them and he turned out to be completely right. They were probably more nervous than us as the pressure was all on them to get promoted and as a result they didn't really threaten us. Despite the significance of the game, we were all very relaxed as a team and I think that helped us to play to our fullest potential on the day.

Nick, what are your memories of your spectacular goal?

Nick Wright (NW): I get asked this a lot and I honestly remember it all perfectly! As the ball came over I was in my usual position on the edge of the six yards box and I remember Andy Todd was defending under the bar. Andy headed the ball out to me with more of a looping header rather than a proper clearance. It all happened very quickly but as the ball came over my shoulder I just focused on getting as good a contact on it as it I could. I had to look through a pair of legs to see where the ball had gone but as soon as I saw the net move I knew I'd scored it. From then I remember I ran as fast as I could up the other end of the pitch towards the Watford fans where I was pole axed by Paul Robinson from behind with a rugby tackle that could have genuinely ended my career!

Was it the highlight of your career?

SD: Oh of course yes. Obviously it gave me my first taste of the Premier League and I was incredibly relieved and thankful to be given the opportunity to play at the top level with Palace. But more than that I was proud of the way we went about it. Iain Dowie had taken over near the beginning of the season when we were second from bottom of the Championship and at that stage we weren't thinking about the playoffs at all, it was more about making sure that we were going to stay up.

To go from that position to ending up in the Playoff Final and then getting promoted was an incredible experience. Iain Dowie managed to create a real close knit group of a team with a great team spirit and I see a lot of that team spirit in this season's Palace side.

NW: Oh definitely, people always say that their dream as a boy was to score in an FA Cup Final, and that was certainly mine too, but let me tell you the feeling of scoring that goal was even better. To score the best goal of my career in the biggest game in the club's history to take them to the Premier League was unreal.

What do you make of the current side?

SD: I always keep an eye out for how Palace do because it's still a club which means an awful lot to me. Just over two years ago they were close to going out of business and to see where they are now is a real pleasure for me to watch. They've taken huge steps since those dark days and I really hope they can go one step further and make the Premier League.

For me the core of their side is the back four and the two holding players in front. Everything they do is based around that stability which they have at the back, and in Miles Jedinak they have a real leader who has stepped up to the plate as captain without Paddy McCarthy in the side. I wasn't surprised at all to see how well they played against Brighton and that performance was all down to the back six making themselves so difficult to break down. It allowed Palace to soak up the pressure from Brighton and gave players like Wilfried Zaha and Yannick Bolasie the room to break on the counter.

NW: I do a lot work for Watford Radio so I've been fortunate enough to watch them a lot this season so I've been able to keep good track of them. I have to say that they're an exceptionally talented side. Their quality of movement, passing ability and creativity has been fantastic to watch.

My only concern is that they have relied on a handful of key players to get the job done this season and when those players don't perform the team tend not to function either.

Can your team win?

SD: I've got a sneaky feeling that Palace can do it. In many ways Watford and Brighton are very similar sides, they both like to keep possession and attack as much as possible and, as they proved at the Amex, Palace are well suited to play against a team like that. If the Palace back six can keep Watford's front three of Vydra, Anya and Deeney quiet then I think they'll will nick a win just like we did in 2004.

NW: Yeah of course they can and I'm fully expecting them to. I was at the game on Friday against Leicester and the atmosphere at the end after that finish to the game was unbelievable. The town and the team are on a massive high and I'd even go as far to say that the momentum is more with Watford than it is with Palace. There are also some good omens on our side as well, it's seven years since Watford were promoted in 2006 and it was seven years before that when we won the Play-Off Final against Bolton. I'm just praying that the seven year rule continues to be true for us!

Your recommended bet?

SD: Like I said I think Palace will try to make it a tight game and will try and soak up all the pressure from Watford. I have a funny feeling that it could be a repeat of the 2004 final so I'll go for Palace to shave it 1-0 (9.08/1) . Saying that I can see it being incredibly close! To a certain extent Watford are an unknown quantity with the amount of foreign players they have in the team so Palace will need to do their homework.

NW: Although Palace defended well against Brighton, I really can't see Watford not scoring at Wembley. I think the game will get stretched towards the end of normal time and Watford will win it 2-1 (10.09/1). 

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FA Cup Final: Mancini must decide on Dzeko or Aguero

"Dzeko was an unused sub in the semi-final against Chelsea after starting many of the earlier rounds but has certainly staked his claim with that goal."

After both final contestants played in midweek, Christian Crowther assesses the squads ahead of their Wembley showdown...

It's fair to say that Wigan's Wembley audition at home to Swansea in the Premier League did not go according to plan on Tuesday night.

Roberto Martinez was left to bemoan his side's calamitous defending in the 3-2 defeat at the DW Stadium which leaves the Latics three points adrift with only two games left to play.

Unsurprisingly, that damaging defeat sees Wigan rated 1.331/3 favourites to finally drop through the Premier League trapdoor.

Gary Caldwell's recall after injury was supposed to shore things up at the back but the experienced Scotsman was responsible for a woefully loose clearance which gifted Swansea their second equaliser.

Wigan's misery was further compounded by a suspected leg-break for substitute right-back Ronnie Stam who lasted under a minute after replacing Emmerson Boyce in the closing stages.

All these defensive injuries do not bode well for the FA Cup final on Saturday, for which Wigan are understandably priced as big 9.617/2 outsiders to win inside 90 minutes.

However, the Latics can take great heart from their display at the Etihad recently where they finally succumbed 1-0 after playing the better football for the majority of the contest.

With relegation now technically out of their hands, the underdogs can throw the shackles off for the full 90 minutes and give it their best shot.

There were no such troubles for their Wembley opponents Man City as they pulled through by that same 1-0 scoreline against West Brom to ensure they will definitely be competing in the Champions League next season.

Interestingly, in the light of Sir Alex Ferguson's impending retirement, Man City's have shortened to slight favourites at 3.02/1 to claim the title back in 2013/14.

Meanwhile, Edin Dzeko, the scorer of City's winner against the Baggies has given Roberto Mancini a headache over who to select up top come Saturday.

Dzeko was an unused sub in the semi-final against Chelsea after starting many of the earlier rounds but has certainly staked his claim with that goal.

It looks to be a straight choice between the Bosnian and Sergio Aguero, who scored the decider in the semi against Chelsea and, perhaps tellingly, got a full rest last night.

After sticking with second choice stopper Costel Pantilimon throughout this year's competition, Mancini has confirmed his intention to stick with the Romanian.

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Heineken Cup semi-finals: Back Saracens to reach first final

"Saracens have home advantage in this clash and the confident English team can make this count at Twickenham."

Recommended bet: Back Saracens to win at 2.0621/20

Previewing the semi-finals of Europe's premier competition, Simon Mail expects Saracens to overcome Toulon and reach their first final, and is backing Clermont to edge a tight encounter with Munster

Saracens v Toulon
Kick-off: Sunday 14:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2

Saracens have their best chance of reaching the Heineken Cup final when they host Toulon at Twickenham. The Men in Black have an outstanding squad and their experience in this competition in recent years could help take them to the Aviva Stadium next month. Mark McCall's side will have learnt from their disappointing quarter-final exit to Clermont Auvergne last year.

Sarries came close to reaching the final five years ago when they suffered an agonising 18-16 defeat to Munster. But they look far more equipped to go one step further this time with strength in all positions. Their domestic form has been hard to fault as they lead the Premiership with one game to go. The side have also looked very strong in Europe where they brushed aside Ulster in the last-eight.

Toulon have enjoyed an excellent campaign which has seen them lead the Top 14 for most of the season. Failure to win in their last two matches has enabled Clermont to overtake them domestically but their Heineken Cup form has been mightily impressive. The big-spending French outfit, who can boast stars such as Jonny Wilkinson, saw off Leicester Tigers in the previous round and they have beaten English sides in all five meetings in the competition. 

Saracens have home advantage in this clash and the confident English team can make this count at Twickenham. Five of the last six semi-finals have been won by the team with home country advantage. The sides met twice three years ago in the Amlin Challenge Cup where they traded one win apiece. But Toulon are not the greatest travellers and Saracens, who have yet to lose a home match this season, are tipped to advance to the final.

Recommended bet: Back Saracens to win at 2.0621/20

Clermont Auvergne v Munster
Kick-off: Saturday 16:30 
TV: Live on Sky Sports 1

Clermont Auvergne are the tournament favourites after a series of superb performances in the competition this season. The French league leaders have never reached the final before but are fancied by many to go all the way after being the only side to win all seven European matches this season. Clermont's free-flowing backline has sparkled in the Heineken Cup, with 23 tries in total, as they defeated last year's champions Leinster home and away. 

It is hard to believe a side of the quality of Munster start the match as 8.07/1 outsiders in this clash but it shows the confidence in Clermont. The Irish giants have the pedigree in this competition as two-time winners and are appearing in their tenth semi-final. Munster have stuttered in the Rabo Direct Pro 12 where they are languishing in sixth. But the team were inspired by the influential Paul O'Connell in their quarter-final win at Harlequins which should serve as a reminder they should never be written off. 

Clermont and Munster have both won two matches apiece when facing each other in the competition but the victors have always been the home side. The French club have the advantage this time with the contest taking place in Montpellier. Munster will certainly not cave in and will be desperately hoping the pressure on the odds on favourites takes its toll. But Clermont have the confidence, thanks to their 100 per cent record this season, to handle the occasion and the best bet could be a narrow home victory.

Recommended bet: Back Clermont to win by under 12.5 points at 1.875/6
Follow Simon's latest bets on Twitter @watfordtipster

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Torneo Final Big Match preview: Weakened Vélez will still test River's impressive home form

"Expect some early tentative prodding and probing before the game settles, and it should all open up once one team has scored."

Back Draw/River on the HT/FT @ 5.79/2

There are many games in Argentina this weekend that could be deemed important or intriguing enough to be labelled our 'big match' this week, but the defending champions visiting a potential champion just about pips it. Ed Malyon takes a look...

Vélez Sarsfield head into the city to play River Plate in a fascinating game between two of the best sides in the country right now.

River seem to permanently have one of the strongest playing squads in the league but the unique set of circumstances surrounding the club, especially the pressure or playing for such a giant, mean that things have rarely been plain-sailing for the Millionarios in recent seasons.

Having returned from their humiliating relegation to the Primera B in 2011, Matías Almeyda failed to make a talented squad into a genuine contender and left his post in late 2012.

Ramón Diaz returned to the club as manager, and 2013 has started very well for the club.

At the beginning of the weekend they are in third, and although Lanús look a tough act to catch as things stand, the meeting between the two sides later in the campaign is likely to be the championship decider one way or another.

This weekend Diaz has changed his system to a 4-4-2, and it is difficult to know how this will turn out. Leading scorer Diego 'Chino' Luna misses out again, so David Trezeguet will play up front and Rodrigo Mora will be the man charged with doing all his legwork for him. Opting for a 4-4-2 rather than the previously preferred 3-4-1-2 will give River more options in wide areas, so we might see this formation getting the best out of Trezeguet, who has started to find some goalscoring form with two goals in his last three home games.

For all River's ups and downs over the last few years, Vélez have been the very picture of stability and their sustained success on the field is doubtlessly down to the sensible way in which the club is run.

Ricardo Gareca has been given years in the job - a rare luxury on this continent - and continually evolves and regenerates his side, understanding that he must sell his players at the peak of their value in order to maintain progress.

Nonetheless, the quality of his sides rarely waver and the loan signing of Fernando Gago - exceptional for Argentina at the weekend and undoubtedly a top international midfielder - has been a coup for the Fortín.

Gareca has had to rely on youngsters to step up too, but they do so with an alarming regularity and 20-year-old full-back Gino Perruzi made a first Argentina start on Tuesday evening to continue his remarkable development after famously shackling Neymar in last year's Copa Libertadores.

The other thing that Gareca does well is invest, and the purchase of young forward Facundo Ferreyra from Banfield turned out to be inspired as his late-season rush of form turned out to be vital in them winning the Torneo Inicial in December. Probably more importantly though, Vélez can expect to sell him for around five times what they bought him for when his European suitors finally decide to stump up the cash.

This season hasn't begun so well for Vélez, with Gareca admiring that the Copa Libertadores is his priority and playing weakened sides in the league, but for games like this there is little chance of him resting players.

By that token, the side Gareca puts out is expected to be as strong as possible, although Gago (unfit) and Fabian Cubero (suspended) are both missing. They are comfortable in their 4-3-1-2 shape and up against River's tactical experiment they will be undoubtedly be the more settled side, even though River have a touch more quality.

River: Marcelo Barovero; Gabriel Mercado, Leandro González Pirez, Jonathan Bottinelli, Diego Martínez; Carlos Sánchez, Cristian Ledesma, Leonardo Ponzio, Leonel Vangioni; Rodrigo Mora, David Trezeguet.
Vélez: Sosa; Peruzzi, Sabia, Domínguez, Papa; Bella, Cerro, Romero; Insúa; Copete, Pratto.

Match odds

With Vélez having won the last three meetings between these two and River boasting just one victory in their last seven meetings, Gareca's side have the clear advantage in recent times. 

River are obvious favourites at 2.3411/8 given current league position, but also because of how strong they've been at El Monumental this season. Three wins from three will give them much confidence heading into Saturday's match, and the absence of Gago, Cubero and Facundo Ferreyra from the Vélez lineup means that this price seems justified, even if you know that Gareca will always put out a competitive and hard-to-beat XI.

Goals

As touched on before, Vélez will be difficult to break down - even for River - and the central defensive partnership of Sebastián Dominguez and Juan Sabia are very solid at this level. 

Four of Vélez's last 15 games have gone over 2.5 goals, but all of those have been when the Fortín were sticking a few goals past far weaker opposition, something we shouldn't expect at River.

The hosts have seen five of their last 15 go over that mark, and three in eight since Diaz took over. While the price is as short as 1.584/7 the unders are to be avoided, with half of River's 12 home games going overs since they returned to the top flight.

The value lies in the overs at 2.68/5 even though the visitors will look to stay compact.

Other bets

Expect some early tentative prodding and probing before the game settles, and it should all open up once one team has scored. On that model, Draw/River on the HT/FT market looks a tempting bet at 5.79/2 or even just the half-time draw at 2.111/10.

Lucas Pratto's physical approach could trouble River's defence - definitely the hosts' weakest area - so Both Teams to Score is also worth consideration at 2.0621/20.

Recommended Bet
Back Draw/River on the HT/FT @ 5.79/2

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Torneo Final Tip Sheet: Godoy can snare a road win at a phenomenal price

"Their game with San Martín is a bit of a derby game with these sides the two biggest club in the west of Argentina, but San Martín - who haven't won in 16 games - will need more than the atmosphere boost of a rivalry to play at Godoy Cruz's standard, and we're backing the visitors at the phenomenal price of 2.89/5."

Ed Malyon previews this weekend's action in Argentina, and believes title-chasing Godoy Cruz are a phenomenal price to get the better of San Martín de San Juan...

Saturday
Argentinos Juniors v All Boys - 17:00
Ricardo Caruso Lombardi's hiring as a 'firefighter' usually signals an improvement in teams, and after he saved San Lorenzo last season he has been charged with doing the same for rock-bottom Argentinos. They couldn't be much worse, and as a good motivator we expect the notorious vendehumo to improve them but not so quickly that they would be 2.47/5 favourites for this weekend's game with All Boys. 

A fairly solid lay at that price, with the visitors a real tough nut to crack.

Recommended Bet
Lay Argentinos at 2.56/4

River Plate v Vélez Sarsfield - 21:10
Check out our big match preview for a look at this weekend's humdinger at el Monumental.

Sunday
Independiente v Boca Juniors - 18:15
Boca rarely have such an early kick-off, so you know it's a derby game when their fixtures are brought forward like this.

Independiente's Avellaneda home is only a few miles south of La Bombonera, and these two near(ish) neighbours both proudly claim to be the most successful clubs in Argentina with Boca boasting a world record 18 international titles and el Rojo a record seven Copa Libertadores wins.

The last year has been poor for the two of them though, and while Independiente fight against relegation, Boca have struggled to impress under new (old) boss Carlos Bianchi. After such success with the club in the middle of the last decade, the fans have been somewhat dumbstruck when the return of the viceroy and talisman Juan Román Riquelme turned out to be a fairly unhappy one.

Winless in five league games and with their Copa Libertadores campaign still very much in the balance, most other managers arriving at Boca would be under some serious pressure, but a defeat to rivals Independiente would begin to make things even more awkward and at current there's little sign of things turning round. 

In what will likely be a tense and heated clásico - any game between two of Argentina's big five is labelled thus - a result seems impossible to pick, and instead we are better served looking at the goals markets.

A big problem for the Xeneize has been their defence, which has lacked leadership since Rolando Schiavi left the club. New arrival Chiqui Perez has tried, withMatías Caruzzo, to adapt to the high defensive line favoured by Bianchi but it's been a disaster, and Caruzzo's fondness for giving away penalties has been costly. 

This should be feisty, error-strewn and accompanied by a great atmosphere, so we fancy both teams to score as our bet for this one.

Recommended Bet
Both teams to score at 2.1211/10

San Martín de San Juan v Godoy Cruz - 20:10
They've had an easy start to the season but you can only beat what's put in front of you and Martín Palermo's Godoy Cruz are in the title mix as things stand. 

Their game with San Martín is a bit of a derby game with these sides the two biggest club in the west of Argentina, but San Martín - who haven't won in 16 games - will need more than the atmosphere boost of a rivalry to play at Godoy Cruz's standard, and we're backing the visitors at the phenomenal price of 2.89/5. 

How the hosts are favourites for this is an absolute mystery. 

Recommended bet: Back Godoy Cruz 0 on Asian Handicap at 1.9310/11

San Lorenzo v Newell's Old Boys - 22:10
This game should be a corker, with both clubs playing some great football under progressive coaches - but don't expect many goals.

San Lore have the best defence in the league, with just two goals conceded all season, while Newell's only saw 11 get through them in the whole of last season. 

With the added burden of Copa Libertadores football Gerardo Martino has not been able to keep his defence as tight, but they are still a very strong side who thrive on possession and boast the best player in the country in Ignacio Scocco

We'd back the unders if it weren't such a short price, so it may be better to just watch this one for the spectacle - no bet.

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WTA Indian Wells betting: Final

"Sharapova really looks like a player on a mission, and I love the way she is hitting the ball and right now I don't think anyone could, or would want to, stand in her way, and I think a straight sets victory is the most likely outcome tonight"

It is time for the Final at Indian Wells and the guys at Abelson take a closer look.

Second seed Maria Sharapova overcame 13th seed and compatriot Maria Kirilenko 6-4 6-3 to advance to her first final of the year. In just over 1hr and 20 minutes she produced a masterclass of serving saving all six break points and posting and remarkable 83% win percentage on first serve points. At one point during the second set she held to love on three consecutive occasions without having to rely on a second serve, leading the commentator to exclaim, "seriously...when was the last time that has happened" For all her fight and determination, Kirilenko had no answer to the powerhouse that is Sharapova, but she can still walk away with her head held high. Sharapova's coach Tomas Hogsted has made remark on her drive and motivation this week, saying that there are no doubts about her focus and determination to get back to winning ways. Three from Nine in finals last year including 0 for 2 in finals at Indian Wells and Miami (next week's Masters event), Sharapova is clearly chomping at the bit to justify her coaches belief in her. If she performs like she did yesterday, she will have no problem fulfilling that desire.

In the other semi-final, Wozniacki dug deep to pull out a come-from-behind victory over Angelique Kerber. Trailing 6-2 2-0, and with Kerber knocking in winner after winner, there appeared to be no hope for the Dane. But an encouraging word from father Piotr gave her the motivation she needed, and after taking the second set 6-4, Kerber started to unravel at the seams. What was a winner in the first set became an error into the net in the final set, as she capitulated. In the blink of an eye Wozniacki was up 4-1 in the final set and, not before a little stutter where Kerber got it back to 4-3, she finally closed it out 7-5. Her exclamation on match point was poignant, as we saw the joy, relief, and satisfaction of a player who has recently had doubts about her own game, doubts about the coaching she was receiving, and as I have said before, constant pressure and media intrusion into her private life with golfer Rory McIlory. In this match we saw signs of the old Wozniacki, the player who in became World No.1 in 2010 and held that ranking for 67 weeks.

With a 6-2 head-to-head record, Sharapova comes into this final with a superior statistical advantage. Wozniacki however will not be deterred by this. Having made three finals in four years at Indian Wells, she clearly loves playing here. It was two years ago that she routed Sharapova 6-1 6-2 in the semi-finals en route to the title that year, but Sharapova will be buoyed by the fact that she has won their last two meetings, on the clay courts at Rome in 2011, and at Miami a year ago. What is interesting is that while Sharapova clearly loves it fast, she has proven she can defeat Wozniacki on slower surfaces. With the exception of a few double faults (which Sharapova is never going to be able to fix), her service stats have been near-perfect. The same cannot be said for Wozniacki, who was broken seven times by Kerber and only posted a 56% win rate on first serve points. Tonight Wozniacki will be the more consistent player in the rally, that is without question. Her ability to never miss the line is uncanny at times. With a mixture of moonballs and dropshots she successfully upset Kerber's rhythm in the semi-final, but Sharapova won't fall for the same trap.

I can not go against the way Sharapova is playing right now. With the same premise that I put forth in my semi-final preview, I maintain that Sharapova's serving ability will see her through tonight. Wozniacki's elegant and varied counter-punching style works against the majority of WTA player because they make too many mistakes, but I don't think this will be the case today. She has beaten Sharapova in the past, but Sharapova really looks like a player on a mission, and I love the way she is hitting the ball and right now I don't think anyone could, or would want to, stand in her way, and I think a straight sets victory is the most likely outcome tonight.

Recommended Bet:
Maria Sharapova to beat Caroline Wozniacki @ 1.251/4

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US Open Women's Final: Williams to win but Azarenka to fight hard

"We can envisage Azarenka taking seven or eight games and that immediately directs our attention to the Azarenka handicap markets for total games.

Selection: Azarenka +5.5 Games @ 2.01/1

Serena Williams is a hot favourite to win the Women's US Open later tonight but what does Abelson Info rates as the best bet of the game?

Victoria Azarenka (1) 5.39/2 v Serena Williams (4) 1.232/9
H-to-H 1-9

You will rarely find a Grand Slam final with such a short priced favourite as we have here. Serena has been in scintillating form all tournament and it will take more than a mere mortal to stop her.

Azarenka may have the number one seeding next to her name but we all know Serena is the real number one player in the world. Add in a crushing head to head record in favour of Williams and you will struggle to see much hope for Azarenka. There is just a little however as Serena has once or twice under performed in finals and has been known to get a little nervy with the finish line in sight. We are not saying Azarenka will win but she may well take more games off the American than most.

We can envisage Azarenka taking seven or eight games and that immediately directs our attention to the Azarenka handicap markets for total games. Azarenka +4.5 is tempting but the better bet is Azarenka +5.5 games.

Selection: Azarenka +5.5 Games @ 2.01/1

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Ebor Handicap: Motivado makes final cut

Ante-post favourite Motivado just about made the cut for the Ebor at York on Saturday, scraping in as number 19 in the 20 runner affair.

Ante-post favourite Motivado just about made the cut for the Ebor at York on Saturday, scraping in as number 19 in the 20 runner affair...

He only gained his place in the line-up thanks to a 4lb penalty for winning a handicap at Glorious Goodwood three weeks ago. The Luca Cumani-trained Qahriman, who was also prominent in the ante-post market, is only first reserve. A Boy Named Suzi is second reserve. Following the live draw, Motivado was handed stall 8, whilst Qahriman will break from stall 1 if making it into the race.

There were no worries for the John Gosden team involved with Duke of Edinburgh Handicap winner Camborne (stall 14) as the four-year-old is near the top of the weights. They are headed by the Jessica Harrington-trained Steps To Freedom (stall 13). The County Kildare handler is also responsible for Bob Le Beau (stall six).

There are three other Irish challengers in the shape of Dermot Weld's Sense of Purpose (stall 22), Tommy Carmody's Royal Diamond (stall two) and the Aidan O'Brien-trained Harrison's Cave (stall nine), who got the last place in the line-up.

Champion Irish jumps trainer Willie Mullins has decided to run dual Royal Ascot victor Simenon in the Lonsdale Cup on the same card instead of the Ebor. English-born French-based trainer John Hammond is represented by Hammerfest (stall 21), who was runner-up to Camborne at Royal Ascot.

Among others in a fascinating renewal are Godolphin's Willing Foe (stall 16), course specialist Crackentorp (stall 17), 2011 Northumberland Plate winner Tominator (stall 10) and Number Theory (stall four), winner of the Old Newton Cup at Haydock. Dreamspeed, who finished fourth to Number Theory at Haydock, has been given stall 11.

Motivado tops Timeform's ratings for the prestigious handicap and is likely to be favourite for the race. You can bet on the contest here.

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US Masters Tips: Outright and two-ball bets for the final day

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 08 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Bubba come from off the pace to win?

"Bubba Watson strikes me as being the heir to Mickelson in many respects and it's easy to imagine him donning the Green Jacket one day."

There's a whole host of drama to come at Augusta and Paul Krishnamurty has picked out a variety of ways to keep you that little bit more interested in the Augusta action with these four bets...

Golf's most famous in-running trend states that the Masters winner will come from the final group and if that golden rule delivers for the 20th time in 22 renewals, Peter Hanson or Phil Mickelson will never forget their magnificent third round performances that set up the chance. On a quite extraordinary day that also saw many stars including Rory McIlroy humbled by this famous old course, Hanson and Mickelson tore up Augusta's back-nine with rounds of 65 and 66 respectively.

Everything looks perfectly set up for Mickelson to land his fourth Masters title in nine years. One can only marvel at this ultimate course specialist's performance over the past two days to recover from a dire first round position. While he knows the Augusta final day drill inside out, Hanson has never experienced anything like this. Without taking anything away from his achievements so far, victory for the hardly prolific Swede would represent a huge shock.

Mickelson's chance, however, is reflected by odds of just http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=103455189&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013 [2.72] so value-hunters will be looking towards the chasing pack. Former Open champ Louis Oosthuizen also played well again yesterday and is close enough from two off the pace, while recent dual winner Hunter Mahan is bound to be a popular pick, especially given his good record from off the pace.

Rather than any of those solid candidates though, I'm going for a man who's been there or thereabouts all week without ever really catching fire. Bubba Watson strikes me as being the heir to Mickelson in many respects and it's easy to imagine him donning the Green Jacket one day. He has the same mix of power, waywardness and spectacular talent that makes Augusta the ideal venue. Critics will point to Watson's flop when taking the final day lead into the WGC event at Doral last month, but from three shots back, the pressure is off this time. Moreover at [10.0], there is plenty of trading value. My plan is to back at [10.0], then lay if he shortens to [3.0].

Recommended Bet
5u Bubba Watson @ [10.0]
Place order to lay 10u @ [3.0]

Two-balls
6u Tiger Woods @ [1.69] (vs Singh) (Starts 16.30)
Backing Tiger and opposing Vijay paid off yesterday and I see no reason to abandon the strategy. Besides the fact these two old rivals are leagues apart nowadays, Tiger has saved face from bad positions time and again over the years, whilst Singh is totally unsuited to a drying Augusta.

4u Webb Simpson @ [2.16] (vs Garcia) (Starts 17.40)
Prone to moodswings and losing confidence, Sergio Garcia has never been one to back when struggling off the pace on Sunday and yesterday's struggle is unlikely to have improved his mood. In contrast, his opponent is making a good fist of his Augusta debut. The consistent and reliable Webb Simpson will be pleased to be placed in the top-20 after just three rounds on a course that penalises debutants and it would be no surprise to see him move further forward today.

6u Phil Mickelson @ [1.61] (vs Hanson) (Starts 19.40)
The arguments for Mickelson and against Hanson are laid out above and given my doubts about the latter, it makes more sense to take [1.61] about Phil just to win their two-ball, compared to [2.72] from one behind Hanson in the outright market, not to mention all the other chasers.

With just one round to go at Augusta National, nine players appear to hold a chance to win the year's first major. Steve Rawlings profiles each of the Masters hopefuls...

Phil Mickelson is a [2.72] shot to win the Masters for a fourth time, ahead of third round leader Peter Hanson and 2010 Open champion Louis Oosthuizen....

An intriguing Masters leaderboard awaits us this morning with any one of 30 players in with a chance of winning the tournament. Saturday is traditionally classed as moving day so who does Paul Krishnamurty expect to be rising up the...

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Latest Masters Odds: Big Phil heads betting before final round

US Masters / Joe Dyer / 08 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Mickelson enjoys himself on moving day

"Mickelson put in a real show of class on 'moving day', shooting six under on the back nine after parring the first nine holes to launch himself up the leaderboard to second place."

Phil Mickelson is a [2.72] shot to win the Masters for a fourth time, ahead of third round leader Peter Hanson and 2010 Open champion Louis Oosthuizen.

Phil Mickelson is [2.72] on Betfair to make it Masters win no.4 with a tournament victory at Augusta tonight.

The pre-tournament third favourite put in a real show of class on 'moving day', shooting six under on the back nine after parring the first nine holes to launch himself up the leaderboard to second place.

He stands one shot back from Sweden's Peter Hanson - the 2010 Ryder Cup performer hitting a 65 to head the field at -9. Hanson is [5.2] to still be top of the pile at the conclusion of tonight's action.

If fending off Mickelson wasn't daunting enough, Hanson will also have to repel the challenge of former Open champion Louis Oosthuizen. Two shots off the lead, the South African can be backed at [6.8] to add the Masters to his collection of Majors won.

Big-hitting Bubba Watson has the tools to go very low at Augusta and the market clearly thinks the three shots separating him from Hanson are not insurmountable. Watson is [10.0] to win the 2012 Masters.

Fellow American Matt Kuchar is one shot back of Watson and trades at [20.0], one tick shorter than Lee Westwood. The first round leader has stalled since his wonderful oening round and sits on -4, tied for sixth place with Hunter Mahan ([27.0]), Padraig Harrington ([36.0]) and surprise package Henrik Stenson (44.0]).

The gap beyond looks too big and no other player trades at under [100.0].

With just one round to go at Augusta National, nine players appear to hold a chance to win the year's first major. Steve Rawlings profiles each of the Masters hopefuls...

There's a whole host of drama to come at Augusta and Paul Krishnamurty has picked out a variety of ways to keep you that little bit more interested in the Augusta action with these four bets......

An intriguing Masters leaderboard awaits us this morning with any one of 30 players in with a chance of winning the tournament. Saturday is traditionally classed as moving day so who does Paul Krishnamurty expect to be rising up the...

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Soulier Leads EPT Campione Final Table, Busquet 2nd

/ Short-Stacked Shamus / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Fabrice Soulier looks to add to his $3.6 million-plus lifetime earnings with a win at EPT Campione (Photo: Neil Stoddart)

A sequence of knockouts early on Friday helped catapult Fabrice Soulier into the chip lead, but a late surge by Olivier Busquet helped position him close to Soulier with eight players remaining.

A relatively quick day at the European Poker Tour Campione Main Event on Friday saw the field of 24 swiftly whittled down to eight, with the Frenchman Fabrice Soulier ending the day in front to begin tomorrow's final table as leader. Soulier amassed a stack of 3.48 million by day's end, putting him ahead of a tough group including Olivier Busquet (2nd, 3.011 million) and Jannick Wrang (3rd, 2.882 million).

When play began on Friday, Jannick Wrang led the 24 who'd survived from the starting field of 570 players. Early action saw the short stacks quickly exiting, including Jose Manuel Nadal (24th), Andrea Benelli (20th), and Jean-Philippe Rohr (17th), all among the group earning €15,000 back from their €5,300 buy-in.

With 16 left they redrew for the final two tables, and soon Soulier began his climb up the counts by eliminating Alessandro Minasi in 16th (€20,000). Primoz Adamie followed Minasi to the rail in 15th, also earning €20,000, then Soulier knocked out both Giuseppe Biancouiso (14th) and Alexandre Andermatt (13th), both of whom earned €25,000 for their efforts.

By the time Ramin Hajiyev (12th) and Pasquale Vinci (11th) had been eliminated -- both taking away €30,000 -- Soulier had surged to the top of the counts to battle start-of-day leader Wrang and Balazs Botond for the lead.

However, Olivier Busquet would be the star of the final stretch, scoring the final two knockouts before play concluded.

First Busquet knocked out David Vamplew in 10th (€41,000) in a hand in which all of the latter's chips went in on the turn with the board showing 8s-5d-Qd-Ks. Vamplew had Kh-Jh for kings, but Busquet had Qh-8h for two pair, and after the Ah river Vamplew was out.

After that one, Busquet and Simeon Naydenov got into a preflop raising war that resulted in Naydenov all in with Jc-Jd against Busquet's Ah-Kc A king flopped, and Naydenov was unable to catch up, eliminated one spot shy of the final table in ninth (€41,000).

Here's how the final eight will stack up for Saturday's final day of play:

1. Fabrice Soulier -- 3,480,000
2. Olivier Busquet -- 3,011,000
3. Jannick Wrang -- 2,882,000
4. Balazs Botond -- 2,080,000
5. Koen De Visscher -- 1,856,000
6. Stefano Puccilli -- 1,450,000
7. Mario Nagel -- 1,210,000
8. Robin Ylitalo -- 1,153,000

First out tomorrow earns €54,000, while the winner will pick up a cool €640,000 plus the Shamballa Jewels winner's bracelet worth €10,000 more.

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A relatively quick day at the European Poker Tour Campione Main Event on Friday saw the field of 24 swiftly whittled down to eight, with the Frenchman Fabrice Soulier ending the day in front to begin tomorrow's final table as...

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The European Poker Tour Campione Main Event is heading towards a thrilling conclusion after the 99 players who returned to the Casino di Campione yesterday afternoon were whittled down to the final 24 in the competition. The man who is...

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Newbury Veterans' Chase: Saturday no final farewell for Hello Bud

News / Timeform / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Seamus Murphy's Hello Bud

"While the owner stated the trip of three miles and two and a half furlongs may be a bit short for his horse on good ground, he added that Hello Bud has been going well at home."

Likeable 14-year-old Hello Bud bids to roll back the year's in the staying veterans' chase at Newbury on Saturday and put himself under consideration for the Grand National at Aintree on April 14...

Nigel Twiston-Davies' Hello Bud will be at least two years older than any of his nine rivals in the Support Greatwood Veterans' Handicap Chase as he goes in pursuit of his first victory since scooping Aintree's Becher Chase in 2010.

For a while it appeared as if he might repeat the feat just before Christmas, jumping with his usual enthusiasm and still going sweetly when unseating regular partner Sam Twiston-Davies at the Canal Turn.

His owner Seamus Murphy recently expressed himself pleased with both that effort and his fifth in the Classic Chase at Warwick last time but hopes his 130-rated chaser can get his head in front this time.

While the owner stated the trip of three miles and two and a half furlongs may be a bit short for his horse on good ground, he added that Hello Bud has been going well at home.

While Grand National entry Niche Market heads the Timeform ratings for the race, it's Alan King-trained Blazing Bailey who heads the weights.

Blazing Bailey, who only just qualifies for a veteran's race being ten-years-old, ran to a career high chase rating of 147 when winning at Ffos Las in February last year but has failed to make an impression in any of his races since.

However, for all that he's not shone recently, he has conested the Hennessy, Welsh National and Warwick's Classic Chase on his three most recent outings and is now down to a BHA rating 4 lb lower than his last winning one.

Philip Hobbs' Fair Along, another with a Grand National engagement, and former Summer National scorer Ouzbeck, from the in-form Emma Lavelle yard, are also amongst the 10-runner field.

....................
Timeform ratings were in great form last Saturday! Among 5 top-rated winners at Kempton was Nacarat (BSP [5.58]). Click HERE for today's cards & ratings.

Owner Terry Warner is hoping Pasco's affinity for the Berkshire track will stand him in good stead in Saturday's two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase due off at 15:10......

Grand National hope Backstage is injured and out for the rest of the season......

Timeform look ahead to a weekend featuring a number of Grand National hopefuls running at Newbury and Kelso on Saturday, as well as quality Irish and International action on Sunday......

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Carling Cup Final Opta Stats: Cardiff v Liverpool

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 23 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Luis Suarez played a significent part in Liverpool's run to the final

Opta offer practically every insight you could possibly require about Sunday's Carling Cup Final between Cardiff and Liverpool...

The last meeting between these sides was in the Carling Cup fourth round in October 2007, when the Reds won 2-1 at Anfield.

Prior to this, Cardiff had won their last five meetings with Liverpool, scoring 18 goals in total in these games.

The Bluebirds have won nine of their last 12 meetings with Liverpool in all competitions, though 11 of these came before 1960.

Cardiff are the only side who can say that they have won their last five league meetings with Liverpool (no other side has won even their last three).

Liverpool are only the second side to reach the final of the League Cup despite playing just one game at home, after Arsenal in 2006-07.

Liverpool are one of only two sides to have won a League Cup Final on a penalty shootout, beating second-tier Birmingham 5-4 on spot-kicks in 2001.

Kenny Dalglish's side have won the League Cup more times than any other side (seven, Aston Villa five).

A win in this match would see Liverpool equal Manchester United's record for most English domestic cup wins (15: seven League Cup, seven FA Cup so far).

This is the fourth time Liverpool have faced a lower-tier opponent in the League Cup Final: they won one 2-1 (Bolton 1995), one on penalties (Birmingham 2001), and one 2-1 in a replay after the first game was drawn 1-1 (West Ham 1981).

Just one of the last seven sides from outside the top tier to reach the League Cup Final has won (Sheffield Wednesday in 1991).

All three of Cardiff's previous cup final appearances have finished 1-0 (one win, two defeats, all FA Cup).

There have been five previous winners of the League Cup from outside the top tier, out of 15 who have reached the final.

Their 2-0 win over Blackburn in the quarter-finals this season was Cardiff's first win in 11 League Cup meetings with top-flight sides.

Cardiff have lost three of their last four matches in all competitions.

Luis Suárez has bagged three goals in three Carling Cup appearances this season.

José Reina is the only player to have played in all of Liverpool's Carling Cup games this season (6).

Andrew Taylor is the only Cardiff player to have featured in every Carling Cup game this season (7).

Swansea will be hoping to take advantage of a Stoke side whose recent cup exploits have had a negative impact on their Premier League form......

Norwich's recent home form ensures that this should prove a difficult test for Premier League title hopefuls Manchester United......

Tottenham's north London derby record has improved massively of late, and with Arsenal struggling in big games this season, that trend could continue......

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Pimenta Leads with 24 Left at LAPT Grand Final; Negreanu 10th

Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 18 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ciao Cesar Pimenta leads with 24 left at the LAPT Grand Final in Brazil (Photo: PokerNews / PokerStars)

Daniel Negreanu nearly grabbed a massive chip lead on Day 2 in a huge, half-million-chip pot versus Ciao Pimenta. Pimenta had an overpair versus Negreanu's straight and flush draws, but the turn and river blanked for Kid Poker and Pimenta took the chips and the lead.

They've played down to 24 in São Paulo at the Latin American Poker Tour Grand Final, with online star Caio Cesar Pimenta of Brazil leading the final group as the only player with more than 600,000 chips. The Venezuelan Vincenzo Giannelli is Pimenta's nearest competitor at present with 538,000, with Carlos Ibarra, Joshua Ewing, and Vitor Torres rounding out the top five. And Daniel Negreanu remains in the hunt as well in 10th place.

A total of 367 players entered the event which sported a buy-in of R$4000 (about $2,333 USD). Of that group just 107 survived Friday's first day of play, with Jean Double, Robinson Carnero Quirouga, and Shaun Sheffield leading the counts to start Saturday's Day 2.

As it happened, neither Double nor Quirouga would be able to maintain their positions at the top of the leaderboard, and both would fall shy of the final 48 and the money. It didn't take long, in fact, for the cash bubble to burst, with Felipe Ramos being the unfortunate player to go out one spot shy of profiting.

Among the first to be eliminated thereafter were 2012 World Series of Poker Europe Main Event winner Elio Fox (47th), Patrick Mahoney (39th), Sheffield (36th), and Leo Fernandez (32nd), each of whom earned R$6,320.

Along the way a huge hand took place between Pimenta and Negreanu that helped establish the former as end-of-day chip leader. Preflop action had seen Negreanu raise, Pimenta three-bet, and Kid Poker call, then both watched the flop come 10h-Kh-6d. When Pimenta continued, Negreanu shoved all in, and Pimenta quickly called, tabling Ac-As to Negreanu's Ah-Qh.

The turn was the 10c and river the 8s, thus giving Pimenta the 530,000-chip pot and the lead. Meanwhile Negreanu was left with a still-healthy stack of 375,000, and he would add a few more before play concluded.

About eight hours after they started on Saturday, Vitor Torres knocked out Victor Silva Talamini in 25th (R$6,320) when his pocket jacks held versus Talamini's Ks-10d, and the remaining players bagged their chips for the night.

Here's how the top of the counts appear heading into Sunday's Day 3:

1. Caio Cesar Pimenta -- 607,000
2. Vincenzo Giannelli -- 538,000
3. Carlos Ibarra -- 479,000
4. Joshua Ewing -- 460,000
5. Vitor Torres -- 447,000
6. Daniel Nestola -- 443,000
7. Hugo Mora -- 414,000
8. Mayu Roca Uribe -- 412,000
9. Felipe Morbiducci -- 402,000
10. Daniel Negreanu -- 398,000

Also returning to the shortest of stacks tomorrow will be Humberto Brenes, 24th of 24 with just 51,000 chips.

Day 3 will see the tourney to play down to an eight-handed final table, then the final group will return for one last day of poker to determine who among them will be taking away the title and R$324,600 first prize.

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Poker Event Starts Final Table With Even Chips

At the World Series of Poker Event 24 started with even chips for all players at the final table. The event was a shootout, which means that each player has to win his table before moving on. This means that at the start of each round all players have the same amount of chips. This WSOP event kicked off its final table with 1.5 million in chips for each poker pro. In the end it was Mark Radoja, who finished third in the $5,000 NL Hold'em Six-Max Event of 2010, who took the victory and $436,568.

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World Poker Tour Venice Grand Prix Final Table Set: Andrea Dato Leads

Poker News / Matthew Pitt / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Andrea Dato (Photo: Francesco Rizzo / WPT)

The finalists have now locked up at least €32,195 for their efforts over the past week but the eventual winner will walk away with €229,800 which includes a seat to the 2012 WPT World Championship worth $25,500.

On Monday a total of 155 poker players passed through the doors of the oldest running casino in the world, the Casino Di Venezia, and exchanged €4,950 for 30,000 tournament chips and the chance to join the likes of Phil Ivey, and Gus Hansen in becoming a World Poker Tour champion.

For 149 of them the dream has ended but for the six men who have reached the televised final table the dream is certainly still alive and in around 24 hours time one of them will indeed be crowed WPT Venice Grand Prix champion. The man who they all have to catch when the tournament resumes at 1400 CET on Friday is Andrea Dato who ended the penultimate day with 1,591,000 chips, the only player to pass the one million chip barrier..

The name Dato may ring a bell with some of you and it should because in December 2011 he was mentioned on these very pages after he finished fourth in the WPT Venice Main Event. That particular tournament carried a lower buy-in of €3,000 and was hosted on the mainland not the historical floating city. Now the Italian is looking to go all the way and follow in the footsteps of Edouard Alescio (winner of December's WPT Venice) and keep the trophy in Italy.

Five men stand between Dato and him winning the title not least of all Simon Ravnsbaek who will start the day as Dato's nearest rival with 922,000 chips. Ravnsbaek has played controlled, aggressive poker throughout this Main Event and it is nailed on that he will either win this event or have a major say in who does. He has shown he is not afraid to get involved in pots, especially against Dato who he has position on and Friday's encounter should be very interesting indeed.

Making up the final six are Rinat Bogdanov (907,000 chips), Alessandro Longobardi (558,000), Andrea Carini (347,000) and Gianluca Trebbi (343,000). The blinds will start at 10,000/20,000/2,000a and the average stack is 775,000 so some of the shorter stacks have a little work to do if they are to mount a serious challenge at this final table.

Along with the prestige if winning such an event there is also the not so small matter of prize money. The finalists have now locked up at least €32,195 for their efforts over the past week but the eventual winner will walk away with €229,800 which includes a seat to the 2012 WPT World Championship worth $25,500.

WPT Venice Grand Prix Final Table

Seat 1: Andrea Dato: 1,591,000
Seat 2: Simon Ravnsbaek: 922,000
Seat 3: Rinat Bogdanov: 907,000
Seat 4: Alessandro Longobardi 558,000
Seat 5: Andrea Carini: 347,000
Seat 6: Gianluca Trebbi: 343,000

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Betfair Hurdle: Mullins on Final Approach to Newbury

Ante-post / Matt Gardner / 08 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Final Approach (right) winning the County Hurdle.

"Taking advantage of the drop in class, Final Approach easily won a Cork minor event early last month, confirming his well-being, and he looks sure to outperform his current odds of [13.0]..."

The Betfair Hurdle takes centre stage on "Super Saturday" at Newbury and, although football fans may picture the likes of Manchester City taking on United on days billed as such, the Betfair Hurdle promises to be every bit as competitive as any local derby...

Last year's winner Recession Proof does not feature in Saturday's renewal, but 2010 victor Get Me Out of Here does, alongside fellow JP McManus-owned gelding Darlan. It is an interesting comparison between the two, as Nicky Henderson's Darlan is at the same stage of his career as Get Me Out of Here was when winning what was then the Totesport Trophy, having won a bumper and three races over hurdles.

Get Me Out of Here landed the pot off an official mark of 135, whereas Darlan is faced with a rating of 146. In addition, Darlan is technically 3 lb "wrong" at the weights, as the handicapper has since reassessed his mark with the runner-up at Taunton, Jump City, disappointing since, dropping Darlan to 143.

Whilst Darlan is clearly open to improvement, his Timeform weight-adjusted figure of 159p (bottom-rated) leaves him with plenty to find with a number of the principals.

Get Me Out of Here is yet to record a victory since that day in 2010, but his latest performance when second to Oscar Whisky in the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham suggested that he has returned as good as ever. However, the abiding memory from that run was how awkward he looked under pressure and his application in a finish must now come under scrutiny.

Looking back to the Cheltenham Festival last season, his second placed effort in the County Hurdle (very smart performance) would make him of definite interest, but it is his conqueror from that day, Final Approach, that makes more appeal for this race.

The Willie Mullins-trained six year-old had just two rivals behind him when jumping the penultimate flight at the Festival, allowing the principals to make their moves before staying on strongly and being value for considerably more than the winning margin.

He went on to contest a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 over longer distances in France, performing creditably in both, before shaping as if in need of the run on his seasonal reappearance in the Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse. Taking advantage of the drop in class, he easily won a Cork minor event early last month, confirming his well-being, and he looks sure to outperform his current odds of [13.0].

Heading the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings is Paul Nicholls' Champion Hurdle hope Zarkandar, the unbeaten winner of last season's Triumph Hurdle who will be racing for the first time since Aintree last season. He is currently the [9.8] third favourite for the Champion Hurdle and could well be a handicap "good thing" off a mark of 151, but in reality he makes little appeal at the [4.5] presently available given his delayed comeback.

Clearly, this is not the main target for the season, and whilst his innate ability may be enough to see him to victory, anyway, you are in effect chancing that the five year-old has made the expected improvement.

Behind Zarkandar in the Triumph was the Colin Tizzard-trained Third Intention who, at Taunton last time, produced the sort of performance that his seasonal bow at Cheltenham had hinted towards, finishing second to the smart prospect that is Ranjaan in what looked a competitive event. Third Intention comes out second best on Timeform ratings, just 1 lb behind Zarkandar, and a repeat of his Taunton effort would see him go close, making him of definite interest at the [17.0] currently available for the win and [4.4] for a place.

Of the others, the Tom George-trained Olofi runs consistently well in races of this ilk but he has not got his head in front since 2009 and is opposable on that basis. Raya Star and Alarazi finished first and third respectively at Ascot in what was a muddling affair, resulting in form that is not easy to trust, and it is difficult to make an excuse for Alazrazi's laboured affair next time up.

Off a low weight, Abergavenny would be of interest with the promise of his Cheltenham third still fresh in the mind. However, with ground conditions far from predictable at present and the possibility that the five year-old may prefer a sounder surface, he is difficult to nail down as a selection at this stage.

The Betfair Hurdle and, indeed, Newbury's entire "Super Saturday" card, makes for compelling stuff and is enough to have any National Hunt fan salivating at the prospect. Zarkandar could well come out and prove himself to be a definite Champion Hurdle challenger, but you are taking his fitness on trust and he is short enough in the betting to avoid. Final Approach would appear to be the other most likely winner, the big-field scenario seemingly ideal, and it is entirely plausible that he still has improvement in him. Third Intention is also worth keeping on side at a decent price, with his form behind Ranjaan particularly appealing.

Recommendations

Back Final Approach @ [13.0]; Back Third Intention @ [17.0] in the win market and [4.4] in the place market

The feature event on an outstanding day of action at Leopardstown on Sunday is the Hennessy Gold Cup. Timeform's Pat Jupp assesses the field........

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Mali v Ivory Coast: Favourites ready to cruise through to final

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 07 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Didier Drogba and team-mates celebrate a goal in their 3-0 quarter-final win

"Do Mali have the firepower to breach the Ivory Coast defence and make a game of this semi-final? My feeling is yes, even though Mali have managed just four goals in four games. They have more attacking talent than that goals tally suggests – and, as they're rank outsiders, all the pressure is on Ivory Coast."

James Eastham expects Ivory Coast to win but says their magnificent defensive record is about to end.

Mali v Ivory Coast, 19:00 GMT, British Eurosport, Match Odds: Mali 9.2, Ivory Coast 1.51, The Draw 4.3.

Ivory Coast were pre-season favourites to lift the trophy and have retained top position in the outright betting all the way through the tournament.

After recording three wins out of three in the group phase the Ivorians beat Equatorial Guinea 3-0 to take their place in the last four.

Despite the wonderful attacking talent in their squad Ivory Coast's progress has been built on a defence that has yet to concede a goal. Progress has been functional rather than flamboyant, but it's working for a nation determined to end their trophy drought.

"When we played the Nations Cup in 2010, 2006 and other years, we played great football and we didn't win anything," St Etienne attacker Max Gradel told the BBC. "But today the most important thing - as the coach tells us every day - is winning and it doesn't matter how you win.

"Everything our coach is telling us to do, we're doing it. On the pitch and off the pitch he's the boss."

Do Mali have the firepower to breach the Ivory Coast defence and make a game of this semi-final? My feeling is yes, even though Mali have managed just four goals in four games. They have more attacking talent than that goals tally suggests - and, as they're rank outsiders, all the pressure is on Ivory Coast.

That's why I would avoid the Ivory Coast to win to nil market at [1.91] or Ivory Coast to keep a clean sheet at [1.81]. Mali will throw everything at the favourites, and have better attacking players than Equatorial Guinea, who failed to find the net in the quarter-finals.

My main selection on the game would be Over 2.5 Goals at [2.28]. This is because Ivory Coast scored three times in the last eight and I give Mali a good chance of scoring, but also because of the stats from this tournament and semi-finals down the years. Fourteen of 28 (50%) matches in the competition so far have featured over 2.5 goals, and six of the last 12 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have had three goals or more. The odds-against price is therefore worth taking.

My second bet would be to oppose Ivory Coast keeping a clean sheet. The market offers a good price on the favourites conceding because of their excellent defensive record to date. You can back 'No' in the Ivory Coast Clean Sheet? market at [2.18].

Finally, there is historic evidence that one the semi-finals will result in a comfortable victory. Five of the last 12 Africa Cup of Nations semi-finals have seen a side triumph by three goals or more (two 3-0 scorelines, two 4-0s and a 4-1). Therefore you ought to consider backing Ivory Coast -1.5 Asian handicap at around [2.25] if you expect Didier Drogba and co. to get through.

Best Bet: Mali v Ivory Coast Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.28].
Other Recommended Bet: Ivory Coast not to Keep a Clean Sheet @ [2.18].

P&L: £10 staked on all James Eastham's tips during the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America would have netted you a profit of £223.70 (33.4% ROI)

James Eastham expects this semi-final to go with the market even though Ghana have disappointed so far....

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Paul Guichard Leads Final Eight at EPT Deauville; Pagano 6th

Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Paul Guichard carries the chip lead to the EPT Deauville eight-handed final table (Photo: Neil Stoddart)

Thanks to a huge field of 889 entrants into the €5,300 buy-in EPT Deauville Main Event, a lot of money awaits those at the final table, with more than 2.55 million Euros still up for grabs and a cool €875,000 reserved for the winner.

After five days of poker in northwest France at the Casino Barriere, they are down to the final table at the European Poker Tour Deauville Main Event where Paul Guichard of France leads the way with nearly 6 million chips. In not-too-distant second sits Vadzim Kursevich of Belarus, making a return trip to an EPT final table after taking third in Berlin last year. And Luca Pagano of Italy returns in sixth of the final eight, thereby making his seventh EPT final table.

Pagano had been the chip leader when play began on Sunday, by which point just 24 of the 889 who entered the €5,300 buy-in event had survived. The top 129 finishers made the money in the event, and among the notables cashing were Alain Roy (113th, €7,500), Todd Terry (92nd, €9,000), James Dempsey (90th, €9,000), Toby Lewis (60th, €13,000), Ludovic Lacay (58th, €13,000), and end-of-day-2 leader Martins Adeniya (43rd, 15,000).

Play began on Day 5 with the short stacks quickly falling, beginning with Karim Lehoussine (24th), Kevin Vandersmissen (23rd), and Patrick Nataf (22nd), all of whom earned €23,000. Marc Inizan soon followed in 21st when his pocket eights failed to hold against Kursevich's As-Kc. A king flopped, and Inizan was out, also earning him a €23,000 payday.

Next to fall were Antonio Guerrero (20th), Andre Corredoira (19th), Rumen Nanev (18th), and Christian Togsverd (17th), all of whom also took €23,000 for their efforts.

Artem Litvinov followed in 16th (€26,000), then came a huge three-way all-in pitting Guichard (Kh-Kd), Chris Brammer (As-Ks), and Denis Cheremisin (Jh-10h). The board came Qd-3d-10c-9h-4d, meaning Guichard's kings were good. Two more players had hit the rail, Cheremisin (15th) and Brammer (14th), both earning €26,000.

Guichard was already leading before that hand, but afterwards had shot up to the 5 million-chip mark to extend his lead. Bruno Jais followed with about 3.6 million, with Kursevich third with just over 2.9 million.

As play wound down on the two short-handed tables, Rob Stain went out in 13th (€30,000), Ignat Liviu was eliminated in 12th (€37,500), and Nikolaus Teichert was felted in 11th (€37,500).

Kursevich next took care of Etienne Moudaress. The latter had shoved a ten-high flop holding As-10h, and Kursevich called holding Jh-Jc. The better pair held and Moudaress was out in 10th (€50,000).

Finally, the last hand of the day saw Sergey Baburin and Jais checking a Qh-Qs-10d flop, then Jais leading out after a 2s turn. Barburin raised all in and Jais quickly called, tabling Kc-Qc for trip queens. Baburin had but 10s-9h, making the river no matter and sending him out in ninth (€50,000).

Here's how the final eight will stack up for the sixth and final day of play on Monday:

1. Paul Guichard -- 5,955,000
2. Vadzim Kursevich -- 5,670,000
3. Olivier Rogez -- 4,415,000
4. Bruno Jais -- 3,450,000
5. Vuong Than Trong -- 2,570,000
6. Luca Pagano -- 2,010,000
7. Yorane Kerignard -- 1,680,000
8. Mick Graydon -- 960,000

A lot of money awaits those at the final table, with more than 2.55 million Euros still up for grabs and a cool €875,000 reserved for the winner.

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