Heineken Cup semi-finals: Back Saracens to reach first final

"Saracens have home advantage in this clash and the confident English team can make this count at Twickenham."

Recommended bet: Back Saracens to win at 2.0621/20

Previewing the semi-finals of Europe's premier competition, Simon Mail expects Saracens to overcome Toulon and reach their first final, and is backing Clermont to edge a tight encounter with Munster

Saracens v Toulon
Kick-off: Sunday 14:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2

Saracens have their best chance of reaching the Heineken Cup final when they host Toulon at Twickenham. The Men in Black have an outstanding squad and their experience in this competition in recent years could help take them to the Aviva Stadium next month. Mark McCall's side will have learnt from their disappointing quarter-final exit to Clermont Auvergne last year.

Sarries came close to reaching the final five years ago when they suffered an agonising 18-16 defeat to Munster. But they look far more equipped to go one step further this time with strength in all positions. Their domestic form has been hard to fault as they lead the Premiership with one game to go. The side have also looked very strong in Europe where they brushed aside Ulster in the last-eight.

Toulon have enjoyed an excellent campaign which has seen them lead the Top 14 for most of the season. Failure to win in their last two matches has enabled Clermont to overtake them domestically but their Heineken Cup form has been mightily impressive. The big-spending French outfit, who can boast stars such as Jonny Wilkinson, saw off Leicester Tigers in the previous round and they have beaten English sides in all five meetings in the competition. 

Saracens have home advantage in this clash and the confident English team can make this count at Twickenham. Five of the last six semi-finals have been won by the team with home country advantage. The sides met twice three years ago in the Amlin Challenge Cup where they traded one win apiece. But Toulon are not the greatest travellers and Saracens, who have yet to lose a home match this season, are tipped to advance to the final.

Recommended bet: Back Saracens to win at 2.0621/20

Clermont Auvergne v Munster
Kick-off: Saturday 16:30 
TV: Live on Sky Sports 1

Clermont Auvergne are the tournament favourites after a series of superb performances in the competition this season. The French league leaders have never reached the final before but are fancied by many to go all the way after being the only side to win all seven European matches this season. Clermont's free-flowing backline has sparkled in the Heineken Cup, with 23 tries in total, as they defeated last year's champions Leinster home and away. 

It is hard to believe a side of the quality of Munster start the match as 8.07/1 outsiders in this clash but it shows the confidence in Clermont. The Irish giants have the pedigree in this competition as two-time winners and are appearing in their tenth semi-final. Munster have stuttered in the Rabo Direct Pro 12 where they are languishing in sixth. But the team were inspired by the influential Paul O'Connell in their quarter-final win at Harlequins which should serve as a reminder they should never be written off. 

Clermont and Munster have both won two matches apiece when facing each other in the competition but the victors have always been the home side. The French club have the advantage this time with the contest taking place in Montpellier. Munster will certainly not cave in and will be desperately hoping the pressure on the odds on favourites takes its toll. But Clermont have the confidence, thanks to their 100 per cent record this season, to handle the occasion and the best bet could be a narrow home victory.

Recommended bet: Back Clermont to win by under 12.5 points at 1.875/6
Follow Simon's latest bets on Twitter @watfordtipster

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Davis Cup Semi-Finals: Much-changed Spanish side worth opposing

"The key to this tie is Almagro. If he can be beaten by either Isner or Querrey then the upset could be on. The tactic here looks to be a cheap lay of Spain at 1.152/13 and trade from there."

Fresh from his daily US Open tipping exploits Sean Calvert is back to preview the weekend's Davis Cup semi-finals, and our man fancies the USA to put up a good fight against Spain...

The ATP Tour takes a break this week following the US Open, but it's still a big week for tennis as attention switches to the Davis Cup.

It's the World Group semi finals and the World Group play offs this weekend and the big matches are Spain vs USA and Argentina vs Czech Republic in a familiar-looking semi final line-up.

Argentina and Spain were last year's finalists, while the USA have won the Davis Cup on 32 occasions and the Czech Republic have been regulars in the latter stages in recent years.

The Spain vs USA tie is a fascinating one, with the Spanish hosts an obvious pick on the clay of Parque Hermanos Castro in Gijon, but they are without the injured Rafa Nadal and soon to be retired Juan Carlos Ferrero, plus there's no Fernando Verdasco or Feli Lopez.

So they go with David Ferrer and Nico Almagro in the singles and Marcel Granollers and Marc Lopez in the doubles, which is still a strong-looking side, but far from unbeatable.

The USA team has problems of its own without the retired Andy Roddick and Mardy Fish, who has health issues, so they rely on John Isner and Sam Querrey in singles and the world number one doubles team the Bryan brothers.

Isner has an excellent record in Davis Cup, winning his last four ties in a row all on clay against the likes of Roger Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Gilles Simon, plus he took Novak Djokovic to five sets on clay as well.

Every Davis Cup match that Isner and Querrey have played so far has been on clay, so they know their way around the red dirt courts and won't be phased by facing a potentially jaded Ferrer and an Almagro that still has it all to prove in really big matches.

The Bryan brothers have only ever lost two Davis Cup doubles matches and the last one was back in 2008, so the USA side will surely take at least one point into Sunday.

The key to this tie is Almagro. If he can be beaten by either Isner or Querrey then the upset could be on. The tactic here looks to be a cheap lay of Spain at 1.152/13 and trade from there.

The Argentina vs Czech Republic tie hinges largely on the fitness of Juan Martin Del Potro, who has been advised by doctors to rest his injured wrist for two weeks, but who is desperate to play and has said that he will.

The hosts have Leonardo Mayer standing by, but if Delpo is either below par or unable to play both singles rubbers the hosts could be vulnerable to their first ever defeat at the Parque Roca.

David Nalbandian, who usually forms a crack doubles team with Eduardo Schwank in Davis Cup is also out injured and so Carlos Berlocq comes in for his debut in this competition.

The Czechs, as ever, will rely on Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek, presumably in doubles as well as singles, as they have Lukas Rosol and Ivo Minar as their other two nominations and they have never played a Davis Cup doubles tie.

Berdych and Stepanek have a fine Davis Cup doubles record as a partnership and they should be too good for the rookie Argentine pair and Berdych has a 6-0 record over Juan Monaco, so this will probably come down to the Berydch v Delpo clash.

And let's not overlook Stepanek, who has a 3-1 career head-to-head record over Del Potro and 4-2 over Monaco, who he also beat in Cincy recently.

Monaco did take care of Steps easily on clay though in Rome this year and you would expect him to do so again, but the value for me lies with the Czechs.

This should be another very close match and the back to lay value is with the Czech Republic at around 2.89/5.

Recommended Bets

Lay Spain at 1.152/13 with a view to trading
Back to lay Czech Republic at 2.89/5

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Snooker World Championship Betting: Semi-finals special

World Snooker Championship Betting / Alex Lee / 28 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is John Higgins set for the final?

"Williams v Higgins provides a trader’s paradise as neither player will remain in the ascendancy for long due to the quality of their opponent."

Alex Lee looks for the betting angles on two compelling World Championship semi-finals at the Crucible...

Once again, the World Snooker Championship has thrown up a closely-matched semi-final contest in the shape of Mark Williams v John Higgins. While Welshman Williams has a little more panache - and speed - about him at the table, Higgins is a fantastic tactician and break-builder. Both players have the requisite qualities to propel them into the final and it is for this reason that I believe it's worth laying Higgins with a view to trading out. Higgins is currently favourite at [1.82] while Williams is [2.2].

More realistically, both should be much closer to evens and the above prices are based on Higgins' recent World Championship record - and his Scottish fan base - than current form. Neither player will be concerned if they go behind early on as both have sufficient mental strength, experience and character to ease their way back into the game. In other words, this match provides a trader's paradise as neither player will remain in the ascendancy for long due to the quality of their opponent.

In the other semi, between Ding Junhui and Judd Trump, keep faith in the more experienced player from China and back him accordingly. Trump's tremendous potting skills temporarily deserted him in the first session and this fact will be at the forefront of both players' minds as the match progresses.

Recommended Bets
Lay Higgins with a view to trading out
Back Ding Junhui

Judd Trump and Mark Williams are through to the semis and it is the former in particular who has his work cut out in the next round. Meanwhile, with some serious heavy scoring coming up, it could pay to side...

So far the focus has been on picking the best bets from the individual matches, but there's a tournament to be won when all is said and done. With the quarter-finals well under way, there are two outstanding candidates, says...

Alex Lee believes Allen can give Williams the game of his life in the clash of the Marks, while Judd Trump will beat Graeme Dott....

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