"The key to this tie is Almagro. If he can be beaten by either Isner or Querrey then the upset could be on. The tactic here looks to be a cheap lay of Spain at 1.152/13 and trade from there."
Fresh from his daily US Open tipping exploits Sean Calvert is back to preview the weekend's Davis Cup semi-finals, and our man fancies the USA to put up a good fight against Spain...
The ATP Tour takes a break this week following the US Open, but it's still a big week for tennis as attention switches to the Davis Cup.
It's the World Group semi finals and the World Group play offs this weekend and the big matches are Spain vs USA and Argentina vs Czech Republic in a familiar-looking semi final line-up.
Argentina and Spain were last year's finalists, while the USA have won the Davis Cup on 32 occasions and the Czech Republic have been regulars in the latter stages in recent years.
The Spain vs USA tie is a fascinating one, with the Spanish hosts an obvious pick on the clay of Parque Hermanos Castro in Gijon, but they are without the injured Rafa Nadal and soon to be retired Juan Carlos Ferrero, plus there's no Fernando Verdasco or Feli Lopez.
So they go with David Ferrer and Nico Almagro in the singles and Marcel Granollers and Marc Lopez in the doubles, which is still a strong-looking side, but far from unbeatable.
The USA team has problems of its own without the retired Andy Roddick and Mardy Fish, who has health issues, so they rely on John Isner and Sam Querrey in singles and the world number one doubles team the Bryan brothers.
Isner has an excellent record in Davis Cup, winning his last four ties in a row all on clay against the likes of Roger Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Gilles Simon, plus he took Novak Djokovic to five sets on clay as well.
Every Davis Cup match that Isner and Querrey have played so far has been on clay, so they know their way around the red dirt courts and won't be phased by facing a potentially jaded Ferrer and an Almagro that still has it all to prove in really big matches.
The Bryan brothers have only ever lost two Davis Cup doubles matches and the last one was back in 2008, so the USA side will surely take at least one point into Sunday.
The key to this tie is Almagro. If he can be beaten by either Isner or Querrey then the upset could be on. The tactic here looks to be a cheap lay of Spain at 1.152/13 and trade from there.
The Argentina vs Czech Republic tie hinges largely on the fitness of Juan Martin Del Potro, who has been advised by doctors to rest his injured wrist for two weeks, but who is desperate to play and has said that he will.
The hosts have Leonardo Mayer standing by, but if Delpo is either below par or unable to play both singles rubbers the hosts could be vulnerable to their first ever defeat at the Parque Roca.
David Nalbandian, who usually forms a crack doubles team with Eduardo Schwank in Davis Cup is also out injured and so Carlos Berlocq comes in for his debut in this competition.
The Czechs, as ever, will rely on Tomas Berdych and Radek Stepanek, presumably in doubles as well as singles, as they have Lukas Rosol and Ivo Minar as their other two nominations and they have never played a Davis Cup doubles tie.
Berdych and Stepanek have a fine Davis Cup doubles record as a partnership and they should be too good for the rookie Argentine pair and Berdych has a 6-0 record over Juan Monaco, so this will probably come down to the Berydch v Delpo clash.
And let's not overlook Stepanek, who has a 3-1 career head-to-head record over Del Potro and 4-2 over Monaco, who he also beat in Cincy recently.
Monaco did take care of Steps easily on clay though in Rome this year and you would expect him to do so again, but the value for me lies with the Czechs.
This should be another very close match and the back to lay value is with the Czech Republic at around 2.89/5.
Recommended Bets
Lay Spain at 1.152/13 with a view to trading
Back to lay Czech Republic at 2.89/5
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