Timeform Irish SmartPlays: Mullins the man to follow at Limerick

Tipping / Timeform / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Willie Mullins has good prospects of a double at Limerick

"Theleze's previous fourth to Midnight Game also reads well in the context of this race and this trip will suit the selection better than her main market rival Tellherimnothere."

Timeform's Irish team have picked out three more SmartPlays on today's card at Limerick.....

Theleze has yet to match the pick of her French form in three starts since joining Willie Mullins but there was plenty to like about her second to Caolaneoin at Fairyhouse last time and she may not need to improve a great deal on that form to land the mares' maiden (14:40). Theleze's previous fourth to Midnight Game also reads well in the context of this race and this trip will suit the selection better than her main market rival Tellherimnothere.

The Tote Jackpot maiden hurdle is a weak race of its type and, although his fitness has to be taken on trust after seven months off, it looks like a suitable opportunity for Fantastic Bob to open his account over hurdles. He showed clear signs of ability in just a handful of runs earlier this season, chasing home four next-time-out winners on his debut in a bumper at Cork prior to finishing second in a maiden hurdle at this track in July. He is open to more improvement than Mackey Boy who has been well held off marks in the low 90s in handicaps on his last two starts.

No prizes for originality with the third selection, but it is very hard to get away from the hat-trick seeking Immediate Response in the handicap hurdle at 15:40. He has improved out of all recognition since joining Willie Mullins, landing handicaps at Clonmel and Thurles with loads to spare, and a hike in the weights is unlikely to be enough to stop him. Both the second and fourth from that Thurles contest have won since and Immediate Response has already shown that he is versatile with regards to trip.

Timeform SmartPlays
Back Theleze in the 14:40
Back Fantastic Bob in the 15:10
Back Immediate Response in the 15:40
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Betfair Hurdle: Mullins on Final Approach to Newbury

Ante-post / Matt Gardner / 08 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Final Approach (right) winning the County Hurdle.

"Taking advantage of the drop in class, Final Approach easily won a Cork minor event early last month, confirming his well-being, and he looks sure to outperform his current odds of [13.0]..."

The Betfair Hurdle takes centre stage on "Super Saturday" at Newbury and, although football fans may picture the likes of Manchester City taking on United on days billed as such, the Betfair Hurdle promises to be every bit as competitive as any local derby...

Last year's winner Recession Proof does not feature in Saturday's renewal, but 2010 victor Get Me Out of Here does, alongside fellow JP McManus-owned gelding Darlan. It is an interesting comparison between the two, as Nicky Henderson's Darlan is at the same stage of his career as Get Me Out of Here was when winning what was then the Totesport Trophy, having won a bumper and three races over hurdles.

Get Me Out of Here landed the pot off an official mark of 135, whereas Darlan is faced with a rating of 146. In addition, Darlan is technically 3 lb "wrong" at the weights, as the handicapper has since reassessed his mark with the runner-up at Taunton, Jump City, disappointing since, dropping Darlan to 143.

Whilst Darlan is clearly open to improvement, his Timeform weight-adjusted figure of 159p (bottom-rated) leaves him with plenty to find with a number of the principals.

Get Me Out of Here is yet to record a victory since that day in 2010, but his latest performance when second to Oscar Whisky in the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham suggested that he has returned as good as ever. However, the abiding memory from that run was how awkward he looked under pressure and his application in a finish must now come under scrutiny.

Looking back to the Cheltenham Festival last season, his second placed effort in the County Hurdle (very smart performance) would make him of definite interest, but it is his conqueror from that day, Final Approach, that makes more appeal for this race.

The Willie Mullins-trained six year-old had just two rivals behind him when jumping the penultimate flight at the Festival, allowing the principals to make their moves before staying on strongly and being value for considerably more than the winning margin.

He went on to contest a Grade 2 and a Grade 1 over longer distances in France, performing creditably in both, before shaping as if in need of the run on his seasonal reappearance in the Hatton's Grace at Fairyhouse. Taking advantage of the drop in class, he easily won a Cork minor event early last month, confirming his well-being, and he looks sure to outperform his current odds of [13.0].

Heading the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings is Paul Nicholls' Champion Hurdle hope Zarkandar, the unbeaten winner of last season's Triumph Hurdle who will be racing for the first time since Aintree last season. He is currently the [9.8] third favourite for the Champion Hurdle and could well be a handicap "good thing" off a mark of 151, but in reality he makes little appeal at the [4.5] presently available given his delayed comeback.

Clearly, this is not the main target for the season, and whilst his innate ability may be enough to see him to victory, anyway, you are in effect chancing that the five year-old has made the expected improvement.

Behind Zarkandar in the Triumph was the Colin Tizzard-trained Third Intention who, at Taunton last time, produced the sort of performance that his seasonal bow at Cheltenham had hinted towards, finishing second to the smart prospect that is Ranjaan in what looked a competitive event. Third Intention comes out second best on Timeform ratings, just 1 lb behind Zarkandar, and a repeat of his Taunton effort would see him go close, making him of definite interest at the [17.0] currently available for the win and [4.4] for a place.

Of the others, the Tom George-trained Olofi runs consistently well in races of this ilk but he has not got his head in front since 2009 and is opposable on that basis. Raya Star and Alarazi finished first and third respectively at Ascot in what was a muddling affair, resulting in form that is not easy to trust, and it is difficult to make an excuse for Alazrazi's laboured affair next time up.

Off a low weight, Abergavenny would be of interest with the promise of his Cheltenham third still fresh in the mind. However, with ground conditions far from predictable at present and the possibility that the five year-old may prefer a sounder surface, he is difficult to nail down as a selection at this stage.

The Betfair Hurdle and, indeed, Newbury's entire "Super Saturday" card, makes for compelling stuff and is enough to have any National Hunt fan salivating at the prospect. Zarkandar could well come out and prove himself to be a definite Champion Hurdle challenger, but you are taking his fitness on trust and he is short enough in the betting to avoid. Final Approach would appear to be the other most likely winner, the big-field scenario seemingly ideal, and it is entirely plausible that he still has improvement in him. Third Intention is also worth keeping on side at a decent price, with his form behind Ranjaan particularly appealing.

Recommendations

Back Final Approach @ [13.0]; Back Third Intention @ [17.0] in the win market and [4.4] in the place market

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Irish Grand National Betting: Mullins to finally hit the target

Tipping / Stuart Jones / 22 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Champion trainer Willie Mullins is still looking for his first winner of the Irish National

"Some Target is still unexposed over fences, especially at extreme distances, and current odds of [14.0] look to underplay his potential".

The Irish Grand National is the feature race at Fairyhouse on Easter monday and Stuart Jones takes you through the most interesting runners......

Beautiful Sound will have gone onto plenty of people's shortlists for this race after an eye-catching third to Holmwood Legend in the Byrne Group Plate at Cheltenham last month and it's not that surprising to see him as short as [8.0] at the time of writing. Lightly raced and progressive, Beautiful Sound did well to get as close as he did to the winner at Cheltenham, given plenty of time to recover from blunders at the second and third, and hampered when starting to make ground four out. However, he's not even guaranteed a run in the race yet (currently second reserve), didn't look totally happy on the ground at Cheltenham (hung left), and represents little ante-post value at the current odds.

Prince Erik took a while to get his act together over fences, jumping errors blighting his early efforts, but he appears to have put those problems behind him this term and has won two of his last four starts over the larger obstacles, beating Montan by a neck in a novice at Naas in March. Prince Erik has been hit hard for those wins, though, this chase mark 25 lb higher than his last winning one over hurdles, whilst he's far from certain to stay this far. Therefore others make more appeal.

Willie Mullins has a predictably strong hand in a race he has somewhat surprisingly never had the winner of, and Some Target looks to have the best chance of his five entries. Better than the result suggests when a never-nearer fifth behind Chicago Grey in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last month, Some Target is still unexposed over fences, especially at extreme distances, and current odds of [14.0] look to underplay his potential.

The [16.0] about Organisedconfusion looks plenty short enough given what he's actually achieved over fences. Lucky to win a minor event at Clonmel in February, Organisedconfusion admittedly showed improved form when touched off by Ruler of All in a novice hurdle at Gowran since, but his suspect jumping has to be a concern in a big field like this and he's already been beaten from lower chase marks in the past.

Leading owner JP McManus has enjoyed his fair share of success in the race and he is represented by several of those prominent in the betting. Running plans are yet to be confirmed for British raiders Quantitiveeasing, Sunnyhillboy and Synchronised, but none of the trio would be of any real interest were they to take part, anyway. Quantativeasing has never shaped like one crying out for this marked step up in trip, similar applies to the suspect jumper Sunnyhillboy, and although proven over marathon distances, Synchronised is coming to the end of a hard season and the ground appears to be going against him.

The Paul Nolan-trained See U Bob also sports the famous McManus silks, but whilst he's been in very good heart over fences of late, narrowly beaten by Hughies Grey at Navan last time, he looks an extremely doubtful stayer and is of more interest for place-laying purposes than win ones.

Whatuthink is an interesting runner from the Oliver McKiernan yard. Third to Bluesea Cracker in last year's corresponding event, the formerly smart hurdler has had a much lighter campaign this term (reportedly suffered a broken jaw at Aintree), and hinted that a return to his best was close when a patiently-ridden third to Hughies Gray at Navan last time, finishing best of all. Whatuthink is just a pound higher in the weights than last year and looks to have excellent each-way claims at [14.0].

The aforementioned Hughies Grey has really come good over fences since the turn of the year, winning the Ulster National at Downpatrick and then showing useful form to beat See u bob in a Grade 2 at Navan last time. He's unlikely to get things his own way up front to such an extent this time, though, and the handicapper appears to have overreacted to that recent improvement.

In summary, the participation of current favourite Beautiful Sound is obviously going to be a major factor in a typically competitive renewal of one of Ireland's premier staying events, but there is sufficient doubt about him to want to look elsewhere, and punters could do a lot worse than backing Some Target and Whatuthink in the win and place markets.

Recommendations

Back Some Target and Whatuthink to win and place in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on Monday

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