World Cup 2014 betting: Levein entrenched in defensive mentality

"Whether it be tactically or otherwise Levein has become entrenched in a defensive mindset."

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.75/7 – if Miller starts

Jaymes Monte previews Scotland's second home qualifier in the space of four days and picks out his best bets...

International football managers are judged on two things and two things only; tactical decisions and team selection. Early in his career as Scotland manager Craig Levein angered fans when deploying what was essentially a 4-6-0 formation in a Euro 2012 qualifier game away to Czech Republic. Although he refused to publically admit it after the game he recognised the error of his ways and hasn't since deployed the same brutally defensive tactics. Now his decisions on personnel are being brought into question.

Against Serbia on Saturday Levein opted to start Kenny Miller, a player who recently took the decision to move to Vancouver Whitecaps and play in the MLS and has scored just one goal in seven matches in what can only be described as a second-rate league, over Jordan Rhodes, a player who has just been transferred for £8million and scored 40 goals last season. Okay, there is an argument to say that those goals came in League One, but is the MLS any better than English football's third tier? And even if you think it is, Miller is now 32 opting to play out his career in relative obscurity, while Rhodes is a 22-year-old high in confidence and traversing a steep upward trajectory in his career.

Whether it be tactically or otherwise Levein has become entrenched in a defensive mindset. On Saturday Miller was the failsafe, workmanlike option. Picking Rhodes would have been a signal of intent, a sign that Scotland wanted to go out and score goals, rather than hope to knick the three points with the only goal of the game.

It makes sense to wait until the teams are announced before betting on this game. If Miller is selected ahead of Rhodes again then a chunky bet on Under 2.5 goals is advised, at odds of 1.705/7. If Rhodes gets the nod then take that as a signal of intent and back the 1.855/6 being offered about a home win. This is a game that Scotland can and should win, if only the manager would share that same optimism.

Recommended Bets:
Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.705/7 - if Miller starts
Back Scotland to win @ 1.855/6 - if Rhodes starts

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Liverpool v Man City: Strong defensive show to see Reds through

Carling Cup / Michael Lintorn / 24 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kenny Dalglish has twice beaten Man City twice since returning to Anfield

"Manchester City are without a victory in nine trips to Anfield and a 1-0 away first-leg lead has been converted on six of the seven occasions that it has been achieved at this stage in the competition."

Michael Lintorn expects Manchester City to exit their third competition in 50 days when fighting to overturn a 0-1 Carling Cup semi-final deficit at Anfield...

Liverpool v Man City, Wednesday 19:45 BST, Sky Sports 1, Match odds: Liverpool [2.7], Man City [2.82], The Draw [3.55]

This writer finds much to fault in terms of Kenny Dalglish's performance since returning to Liverpool, including his transfer dealings - for which Damien Comolli is also culpable - points dropped to lowly clubs, inconsistent criticism of officials and handling of the Luis Suarez affair.

One area in which he has consistently delivered in his second stint however is in getting the best out of his players in big-match environments, which is perhaps why he took the unusual step of publicly berating them after Saturday's 3-1 defeat away to Bolton.

Under Dalglish, the Reds have won two and drawn another of their four meetings with Manchester City, gone three for three against Chelsea and beaten both Manchester United and Arsenal.

And though their record at Anfield has been attacked because of the frequency with which they are held by less expensively assembled squads, they have only actually lost once in 24 games there, and require just a draw to vindicate odds of [1.41] on them qualifying.

The Opta stats give Liverpool fans plenty of reason to be optimistic, noting that Manchester City are without a victory in nine trips to Anfield and revealing that a 1-0 away first-leg lead has been converted on six of the seven occasions that it has been achieved at this stage in the competition.

Further cause for confidence is provided by the fact that, at the time of writing (ahead of the Cardiff v Crystal Palace decider), the last six semi-final second legs have all been won by the hosts.

Roberto Mancini's side - seen off by Manchester United at this point two years ago - have claimed only two wins in seven on their travels - both 1-0. And with Mario Balotelli expected to start a four-match ban for an alleged stamp on Scott Parker, [2.7] looks a hefty price on Liverpool enjoying a seventh successive cup triumph.

Over/under 2.5 goals

A Steven Gerrard penalty was all that separated the teams in the initial tie as the Premier League leaders struggled to create clear-cut chances and Liverpool defended strongly, bucking the recent tendency for this fixture to produce over 2.5 goals.

A clash between the two at Anfield is even less likely to be high scoring, with the Reds themselves managing to net more than once there just twice in nine games, and one of those against Oldham.

Seven of their last eight there facing top-flight opponents have featured two goals or fewer and with Dalglish no doubt prepared to again put plenty of bodies between Pepe Reina and Sergio Aguero and co, under 2.5 goals appeals at [1.83].

Liverpool clean sheet

Having fired in every domestic encounter prior to their Boxing Day draw at West Brom, Manchester City have been shut out in two of their last three on the road, striking once in their last 358 minutes (almost six hours) of away action. Liverpool are [2.9] to add to that frustration.

Best Bet: Under 2.5 goals @ [1.83]
Other Recommended Bet: Liverpool to keep a clean sheet @ [2.9]

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