African Cup Of Nations 
/ Jonathan Wilson / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment Tournament co-hosts have won both games so far and could secure a stay at their favoured Libreville stadium throughout the knockout stages by avoiding defeat. Jonathan Wilson thinks they can do it
The tournament feels as though it's hit something of a lull. After all the excitement of the second round of games, when last-minute winners confirmed the progress of Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Tunisia, the final set of games has been about jockeying for quarter-final positions. Even the events of yesterday, when Sudan edged through to the last eight thanks to Angola's shambolic defending lacked the drama of last week.
So we know now that Zambia will play Sudan in the first semi-final, and that Ivory Coast will then take on Equatorial Guinea in Malabo, where the smaller stadium will surely offer less of an advantage than they would have enjoyed had they won their group and remained in Bata.
Gabon and Tunisia, who meet on Tuesday evening, have already secured their progress, but both know that the likely result of finishing second in the group is a game against Ghana. Only a Guinea victory against the Ghanaians could unseat the Black Stars from the top of the group and were that to happen there would be a serious possibility they would not qualify at all, for Mali will surely beat Botswana to leave three teams locked on six points.
Similarly, their coach, Gernot Rohr, sees an advantage in staying in Libreville.
"We would like to finish first in the group because when we finish first we can play in Libreville, in this wonderful stadium with this fantastic crowd," he said.
"And I hope we can be first because then we can stay in Gabon. If we are second it's possible that we'd play a semi-final in Equatorial Guinea. It will be a difficult game against Tunisia. They have two victories, too."
A draw would be enough for Gabon to top the group, but a win would also help to convince home fans who, weirdly, seem to think their team should be playing even better than it is. After the extraordinary late drama of the win over Morocco, when Gabon scored in the 77th and 79th minutes to take the lead, conceded in the 90th and then regained the lead in the 97th, the first question Rohr faced in the post-match press conference asked why his side hadn't won more easily.
"I don't feel any vengeance against me but the people are impatient," Rohr said, but he must be frustrated that having taken a team that was [30.0] at the beginning of the tournament to the quarter-finals, his work is not better appreciated.
"They didn't really understand we wanted to create a young team that would work together and be united. They are gaining more and more confidence because we have a good blend. There is a fresh new spirit, a cocktail that has produced a good competition for us so far."
Does that mean that he will play a full-strength team? Are Tunisia, whose policy of defending deep and hitting on the break has been successful so far but has required a certain amount of fortune, more likely to rest players? Probably, but both sides are unlikely to risk players on a yellow card and thus at risk of suspension.
So what of the other Tuesday game, between Morocco and Niger, two sides who are already out? The suspicion is that Morocco, who thought they had a genuine chance of winning the tournament, will give squad players a chance, while Niger, for whom even a point in the tournament would be success, may pick something more closely resembling a first choice side.
Recommended Bet
Morocco look short and laying them at [1.61] may be an option, but in an uncertain world, I like the look of [2.1] on over-2.5 goals in that game. A Moroccan backlash could obliterate Niger, while Niger are wobbly at the back and showed against Tunisia that they have the firepower to upset ostensibly better sides.
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