Match Previews 
/ Geoffrey Riddle / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Vincent Clerc has a superb record against Ireland
"France should win this match, and win it well and they look an excellent investment at [1.4]... "
Geoffrey Riddle shares Will Greenwood's view that France should win and win well against Ireland in Paris on Sunday. Our man is also backing a certain French winger to terrorise the visitors...
Stat attack
• Since the IRB world rankings were launched in 2003, France have never enjoyed a greater margin of superiority in the rankings when hosting Ireland in Paris.
• Ireland have won just once in Paris since 1972 and of those 21 matches in the French capital Ireland would have been losers with a seven-point start 15 times. A Brian O'Driscoll hat-trick set up a famous Irish victory in 2000 but the centre is out injured.
• France have led at half-time in seven of their last eight matches in all competitions in Paris against Ireland. You have to go back to 2009 when New Zealand played in Paris in the autumn for the last time Les Bleus trailed at half-time at home.
• France have scored the first try of the match in the last seven matches against Ireland.
• France have won nine consecutive games at the Stade de France, a run of wins stretching back to their 24-13 defeat at the hands of England in 2008
• Ireland have been losers in the main match handicap in five of their last six road matches in the Six Nations.
• Vincent Clerc represents France's most potent attacking threat against Ireland, having scored five times in his six Championship appearances against them.
• France coach Philippe Saint-André has made two changes to the side that defeated Scotland 17-23 at Murrayfield. Clement Poitrenaud makes a timely return to the full back spot after injury ruled Maxime Medard out of this weekend's clash. Meanwhile Clermont Auvergne flanker Julien Bonnaire is named at blindside wing-forward, with Imanol Harinordoquyswitching to No.8. He replaces Toulouse No.8 Louis Picamoles, who drops to the bench.
• Declan Kidney has adopted to keep the same starting line-up who beat Italy 42-10 at the Aviva Stadium, and the same XV that was originally picked to face France for the postponed game three weeks ago.
Preview
France were considered favourites over Ireland by nine to ten points before the farcical situation which saw the match called off at the 11th hour three weeks ago. Now, after Ireland's thumping win over Italy and France's victory in Edinburgh, the layers have shaved a point or two off the match handicap with France enjoying just a seven-point deficit with some layers in the betting village.
Form is obviously subjective, but according to the IRB rankings system, Ireland have not been this poor since Declan Kidney picked up the pieces from Eddie O'Sullivan before moulding the squad into a Grand Slam winning side in the 2008-09 season.
France enjoy one of their biggest advantages since the Six Nations was formed in 2000 with regards to the IRB rankings and in my database I have found 70 matches of a similar nature which have taken place in that time frame.
There are 46 home teams that won by more than seven points in that sample, with the average points differential standing at 14 in the 70 matches overall. France should win this match, and win it well and they look an excellent investment at [1.4] on Betfair, which filters down to the subsidiary markets.
France have an exceptional record against Ireland at home, scoring the opening try in the last seven encounters and although Kidney's side are one of the better teams in the tournament away from home, France look too strong and should be in front at half-time and full-time.
Ireland continue to operate without the ageing magic of Brian O'Driscoll, but France's most potent attacking weapon still takes the field.
The trend in this year's tournament is that backs are scoring all the tries - Tom Court, Rory Best and Sergio Parisse are the only forwards to have scored so far - and Wesley Forfana, the France centre, has confidently taken the step up from Heineken Cup rugby to international level. His tries and all-round game have helped France immeasurably and he can take some of the attention off team-mate Vincent Clerc, who has a sublime scoring record against the Irish over the years, scoring over half of his tries in the tournament against Ireland.
Recommended Bet
3pt Back France @ [1.4]
2pts Back France to win half-time/full-time @ [1.89]
1pt Back Vincent Clerc to score a try @ [2.46]
Will Greenwood followers are enjoying considerable profits this Six Nations. So you should probably follow his advice when France and Ireland meet for their rescheduled match in Paris this Sunday....
Geoffrey Riddle believes that one day it will all click for Andy Robinson's Scotland - and the stats back him up - but whether that will happen on Sunday against France is another matter....
Geoffrey Riddle assesses the stats to see if England can upset the odds against a rampant Wales ......
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