Premier League Round-Up: Discipline the difference at the top

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Roberto Mancini can't get to grips with 'problem' striker Mario Balotelli

"Roberto Mancini has done his best to handle a maverick whose self destructive tendencies were even beyond Jose Mourinho."

After Mario Balotelli's red card yesterday, and Wayne Rooney's extended run without a yellow card, Ralph Ellis makes a case for discipline being a vital factor in this season's title race.

To buy one brilliant but truculent striker might be considered bad luck; To get two borders on carelessness; To have signed three in the space of as many years means somebody at Manchester City simply doesn't learn his lessons.

Blame Mario Balotelli, as some have done this morning, for losing the Premier League title if you like. His red card in the final moments of the 1-0 defeat at Arsenal yesterday that left Manchester United with an eight point advantage at the top of the table was after all pretty damn stupid.

But has mad Mario really been any worse an influence on City's season than Carlos Tevez? At least Balotelli has been around to score 14 league goals in the 23 times he's been on the pitch. Is that better, or worse, than chucking your toys out of the pram and going home to Argentina for a three-month sulk on the golf course?

The real problem at Manchester City began back on September 1 2008 when the new owners chose to flaunt their wealth on the day they took over by hi-jacking Chelsea's move for Robinho, spending a £32.5million fee and paying him £160,000 a week. The Brazilian was meant to be the standard bearer for other top players to follow, instead he became the first of too many big egos who wanted to put their own interests ahead of the team. Did anybody responsible for City's recruitment learn the lesson? No. And that's why they've ended up where they are today.

Roberto Mancini has done his best to handle a maverick whose self destructive tendencies were even beyond Jose Mourinho. Now he's told the world that Balotelli will have to be sold in the summer - which is all very well but, just like with Tevez, they may find very limited the number of clubs willing to spend £25million or more and £200,000 a week on guaranteed trouble.

With money no object, perhaps City will simply solve their problems by signing Robin Van Persie. He clearly has his issues with Arsenal at the moment and is doing his level best to avoid signing a new contract. (Keep an eye on the Van Persie to stay) market in Betfair's Specials this summer). But in the meantime he has given his heart and soul to the club on the pitch, and set a superb captain's example. Arsenal, once in danger of failing to qualify for next year's Champions League, are now [1.53] to do it with a Top Three Finish.

Certainly Balotelli's antics have exposed Mancini's lack of experience at man management. Contrast with how Sir Alex Ferguson dealt many years ago with Eric Cantona, and more recently has thinned Wayne Rooney's red mist. Rooney's penalty against QPR yesterday has moved him just four goals behind Van Persie in the chase for the golden boot, and with six fairly benign fixtures left it's not too late to back him at [5.2] in the Top Goalscorer market.

Ferguson, right back to January 1995 when Cantona jumped into the crowd for his infamous kung-fu kick at a fan, has always found the way to harness maverick talent to the team. This year the statistic that Rooney has not been booked all season in a Manchester United shirt is probably as significant as the number of goals he has scored.

Newcastle's 2-0 win at Swansea on Friday evening was the first time I'd seen Papiss Cisse play live, and what struck me was not just the quality of his finishing for both goals, but the way he is already immersed in Alan Pardew's team ethic. The tactics demanded that he and Demba Ba took turns at playing the lone front role, and when it wasn't their go they had to fill in on the left to stop full back Angel Rangel getting forward. Cisse did the job without a murmur, and before today's home game with Bolton were [8.4] for a Top Four Finish.

Pardew has certainly spent well the £35million he got for Andy Carroll, whose nightmare at Anfield continued in a 1-1 draw with what looked like Aston Villa's youth team. Amazingly Liverpool, on a desperate run that has seen them win in 90 minutes only three of their last 12 games, are [2.38] favourites to beat Everton in Saturday's FA Cup semi-final.

Two teams who have seriously under-achieved this campaign meet on Tueday night and it's hard to pick a winner. The draw is over-priced anyway so it makes sense to think a share of the spoils is on the cards, says...

Norwich stun Tottenham, Newcastle record a fifth successive win, and Everton thrash Sunderland on an afternoon of Premier League action....

Followers of Lee Dixon's column would have enjoyed a great day if backing all his selections on Easter Sunday. Mike Norman explains......

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Weekend Football Round-up: Chelsea resurgent under DiMatteo

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can DiMatteo's Chelsea overcome Manchester City?

"Di Matteo will take his side to The Etihad Stadium on Wednesday full of confidence and they could be value at [4.4] to win there."

It's been a traumatic weekend and Ralph Ellis, like everybody else, is thinking about Fabrice Muamba and his family. Here, our man considers results in the FA Cup and Premier League...

I'm sure all the Betfair community will send their thoughts to Fabrice Muamba and his family. Everyone who cares for football has been united by their concern.

Events away from White Hart Lane got me thinking about how the recipe for success at one club can produce failure at another. Just look at Chelsea and Wolves.

Meanwhile, It is four games since Roman Abramovich reacted to a defeat by West Bromwich Albion and sent Andre Villas Boas out the exit door - and the decision to promote his assistant Roberto Di Matteo has transformed the place. Four wins, including the dramatic turnaround in the Champions League against Napoli, have restored morale and confidence. Goodness me, he's even got Fernando Torres scoring goals again.

Wolves owner Steve Morgan must be looking at that and wondering why. He also took action after losing to Albion and ended up promoting the number two. But Terry Connor's four games in charge at Molineux have lurched from one disaster to another. And a 5-0 thrashing by Manchester United yesterday has now dumped them firmly at the bottom of the table.

Wolves are now [1.26] relegation favourites and [2.34] to finish up rock bottom(http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=103375374&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013). And this week will tell us much about the character of Morgan, who made his money building houses and had planned to build his football club with the same care. Will he hold his nerve and stick by his decision to promote Connor? Or will he let himself be rushed into going back to the short list of potential managers he spoke to just a few weeks ago.

There is a sense around Molineux that the players are a bit too comfortable under Connor's control. They like him, they enjoy his training sessions. But they have let him down, failing to properly defend set pieces - and Ronald Zubar's reckless two tackles to get an early red card yesterday was a symptom of a lack of concentration. It's the sort of thing Steve Bruce would focus on if the owner went back to him - and the former Sunderland manager is now just [4.0] in the next Wolves manager market. Betfair's punters doubt Connor will survive. He was appointed until the end of the season but must still be in charge when they play Manchester City on April 22 for the market to pay out. He is now [2.1] to lay.

The big issue at the bottom will be how many points are needed to avoid relegation. Last year, Birmingham went down with 39, but it looks like a much smaller total will be needed this time. Quite possibly Norwich on 36 points already have enough, despite losing to a single goal at Newcastle yesterday.

Albion manager Roy Hodgson reckoned a couple of weeks ago that his side were already safe with 32, so he would have seen Paul Scharner's equaliser to earn a 1-1 draw at Wigan as extra insurance. The result still lifted the Latics off the foot of the table and the track record of last season, when Roberto Martinez conjured two wins in their final two games, would make me nervous about backing them at [1.31] to go down.
Swansea are certainly safe after a 3-0 win at Fulham, and those who backed them at anything up to [7.2] to be the top promoted team can safely turn the market green - their price now is [1.25].

The better that Swansea do, the more you wonder whether Abramovich got the wrong former Mourinho aide when he appointed Villas Boas rather than ex-reserve coach and now Swansea boss Brendan Rodgers. But at least the appointment of Di Matteo is working, and that could be good news for Manchester United, now [1.49] favourites in the title race having built a four point lead and brought their goal difference to within three of Manchester City at the same time. Di Matteo will take his side to The Etihad Stadium on Wednesday full of confidence and they could be value at [4.4] to win there.

Despite their upturn Chelsea at [3.6] aren't quite favourites to win the FA Cup. That place belongs to [3.55] Liverpool as the only other side definitely in the semi-finals following a 2-1 win over Stoke in which Stewart Downing scored only his second goal of the season. Sunderland, a side who definitely did benefit from changing manager when Martin O'Neill arrived, still look value at [10] after earning a replay from a difficult tie at Everton.

Five-star United [1.49] for the title after destroying new relegation favourites Wolves...

Carlos Tevez is due to return to Premier League action against Chelsea - something we never thought would happen during the Argentinean's self-imposed strike - and it's a sign that City are getting desperate in the title race, says Richard...

There were just two games in the Premier League today with Wigan held by West Brom and Swansea trouncing Fulham. Joe Dyer has the betting headlines from both matches...

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Weekend Round-Up: Strong line-ups equal strong results

Premier League / Ralph Ellis / 20 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Squad rotation was unheard of during Liverpool's successful 1984 season

"Sunday was the first time Dalglish has been able to start Suarez, Andy Carroll and Steven Gerrard in the same side and that might just give some momentum to make [4.4] for a top four finish some real value."

Both Norwich and Tottenham made changes ahead of their FA Cup ties last weekend, and both failed to win, whilst Arsenal left out their first choice goalkeeper. Ralph Ellis discusses team selections.

George Orwell thought 1984 would be when Big Brother Is Watching You. In the event Big Brother was probably too busy watching Liverpool.

The Reds played 66 games that season as their team won a treble of the League, the European Cup and the League cup. When I say the team, that is the right word - definitely not the squad. They used only 15 players in that epic season - and one of them, David Hodgson, started only one of the 42 matches in the old First Division.

I suspect the memories of that campaign have helped form Kenny Dalglish's view that, by and large, he doesn't do rotation when it comes to picking teams for Cup matches. Goalkeeper Pepe Reina made his 34th appearance in Liverpool's 6-1 romp over Brighton yesterday out of 34 matches in the season so far, and it's a certainty he'll take that record to 35 in Sunday's Carling Cup final.

Incidentally there was probably one more memory of 1984 that informed Dalglish's selection for yesterday's game and that was the one black spot when they got knocked out of the FA Cup in the fourth round - by Brighton. It was one that, very rarely, he missed because of injury but enough to drive home the point that the threat of an upset is always there.

Liverpool's commitment to cup competitions has been clear since they began the Carling Cup campaign at Exeter back in August with Reina in goal and Luis Suarez in the starting line-up. It's why I think the Reds deserve to be [1.43] favourite for Sunday's meeting with Cardiff and ought to be clear favourite rather than second at [3.85] for the FA Cup.

Dalglish is still talking optimistically of a treble with a top four finish too. His side are only four points off the Champions League places at the moment. Significantly Sunday was the first time he's been able to start Suarez, Andy Carroll and Steven Gerrard in the same side and that might just give some momentum to make [4.4] for a top four finish some real value among the clubs chasing the Champions League.

I'm not saying Dalglish hasn't used the chance to give some squad players a game in the knockout matches. It's just you sense he always picks a team to win the game, rather than choose one which might win.

Norwich, for instance, have done great things in their first season back in the Premier League but boss Paul Lambert was clearly not too bothered about getting through Saturday's tie with Leicester. He gave England youth goalkeeper Jed Steer a game among four changes and duly got beaten 2-1.

And what was Arsene Wenger doing with Lukasz Fabianski in goal at Sunderland? Doesn't giving the second string goalkeeper a game send out the message that this match doesn't really matter quite as much?

But it should have mattered. A 2-0 defeat means it's now seven years without a trophy and the critics who have been picking at Wenger were out in force on Saturday night. Wenger has two years of his contract left and, quite rightly, has the support of the board if not a growing band of fans who want change. Arsenal are in the top four currently, but would you back them even at [2.76] to stay there?

Wenger's critics hate his insistence on signing kids for the future rather than established stars for the present. Ironically it was one of those prospects, Japanese teenager Ryo Miyaichi, who got one of the goals for Bolton that clinched a 2-0 win at Millwall. He was part of a strong side selected by Owen Coyle who must have fancied that a Cup quarter-final would boost confidence for the relegation fight. Bolton are currently [1.8] to go down.

Tony Pulis knows all about marathon seasons. Yesterday's 2-0 win at Crawley was Stoke's 41st game of the season and they have at least another 15 to go. He's also followed the principle of trying to win cup games rather than not caring - skipper Ryan Shawcross has missed only six of them while striker Jon Walters, who tucked away the first goal from the penalty spot, has played in 40.

I love Stoke's attitude and between [7.4] and [15.5] in the early market for them to turn round a 1-0 deficit and qualify over Valencia in the Europa League on Thursday has to be the best long odds punt of the week.

Tottenham are [3.75] favourites for the FA Cup despite still needing a replay over Stevenage to take their place in the quarter-finals. Harry Redknapp did make loads of changes for yesterday's tie and it showed. Surprising, really. He might not know too much about George Orwell's version of 1984, but I bet he could name every one of Liverpool's 15 players!

Lifelong Man City fan Lee Dixon believes most City players would be prepared to forgive Carlos Tevez if the Argentinian returned to the team in goalscoring form......

Arsenal have endured a miserable few days and, unless they buck their ideas up very quickly, they could be humiliated by their local rivals on Sunday, says Richard Aikman....

Norwich have been one of the surprise teams in the Premier League, thanks in no small part to John Ruddy, says Hannah Duncan. Next stop, England?...

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Six Nations Round-up: Away wins boost England and Wales

General / Richard O’Hagan / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

George North scores for Wales in Dublin

Round one of the Six Nations is over, so what have we learned about the sides and how should results inform next weekend's bets? Richard O'Hagan reports.

The first weekend of the RBS Six Nations was a 'getting to know you' exercise for most teams, leading to staccato performances and a pretty poor standard of play. In fact, for the three winning sides you could almost pigeonhole their victories as an object lesson in how to win without looking like you were trying to.

France and Italy kicked the 2012 tournament off in a freezing Stade de France. France's 30-12 victory was a cut above 80% of their performances in the World Cup, but far below the level of their losing appearance in the final. Italy once again proved that they can give every side in the tournament - indeed, in the world - a run for their money, but they lacked the killing touch when they came within sight of the French goal line.

Next up for the Italians will be England, who defeated Scotland 13-6 in one of the worst games the venerable old championship has ever seen. Even allowing for the cold weather you would expect a club rugby match to contain fewer than 27 handling errors, let alone two international sides. In Scotland's case those errors were very costly, as on at least five occasions they spurned clear try-scoring opportunities because of them whilst another error - Dan Parks dithering near his own goal line, led to a charged-down kick and Charlie Hodgson's opportunistic try.

England's interim coach Stuart Lancaster will fancy his chances of extending that winning run when his young charges take on the Italians. Whilst the Azzurri pack may prove troublesome, his inexperienced centre pairing of Brad Barritt and Owen Farrell should find themselves with even more room against the Italians than they did against the Scots. The two French tries scored on the breakaway will have England's speedy wingers salivating. England's odds of [1.26] don't look overly generous, but they are still a solid bet even though bet in Rome.

Scotland go to Cardiff to take on Wales. The Welsh were the better side by far in their dramatic 23-21 win over Ireland, but were almost undone by a combination of Rhys Priestland's woeful placekicking and Bradley Davies' idiotic sinbinning when they were still only a point behind. In the end, a controversial penalty by Leigh Halfpenny less than a minute from time decided the game. Awarded as it was for what looked like a perfectly legitimate tackle by Stephen Ferris. It was the best game of the weekend, but it was still decided by errors, not by great play. Still, it's sent the Dragon's title odds tumbling and Wales are now in to [2.86] second favourites in the outright winner market.

Next Sunday, they play Scotland for whom prop Euan Murray will be missing. Despite their defeat to England, the Scots could give the Welsh more than a few problems and at odds of [3.8] they might be the value bet of the round.

France v Ireland could be the game of the whole championship. Both sides will need to improve upon this weekend's showing, with Ireland needing far more inspiration behind the scrum than they showed against the Welsh. It is hard to look beyond the French though, with the speed and skill of their centres, Aurelien Rougerie and Wesley Fofana, likely to be significant against an Irish midfield that was overmatched against the Welsh. France are [1.4] to win.

Dream start for Stuart Lancaster's inexperienced team as Scotland are left to rue errors and indecisiveness once again......

Blue is certainly the colour as Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood selects five bets for the 2012 Six Nations. Remember, our man did pretty well with these last year......

Every match, every market. Jon Harris-Bass joined by Will Greenwood and Tony Calvin for a Betfair preview of the 2012 Six Nations....

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