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Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Chelsea v Reading: Goals in the offing for hosts

"Reading have only won seven of their 38 road trips in the Premier League to date."

Chelsea's rejigged side made an impressive start at Wigan and will no doubt relish the chance to put on a show for their fans against Reading...

Chelsea v Reading, Wednesday 19:45, Match odds: Chelsea 1.271/4, Reading 15.5n/a, The Draw 6.411/2

Reading will be delighted after salvaging a point from their opening fixture with Stoke, but a midweek trip to Chelsea will be an altogether more daunting experience.

A lot was made in pre-season about how Chelsea's new wealth of attacking talent would migrate into the side, however Eden Hazard in particular proved that he could walk the walk as well as talk the talk.

Hazard was involved in both goals against Wigan and already the Belgian looks like becoming one of those players with the ability to win games on his own.

With such encouraging debuts for new stars Hazard and Oscar, you would expect Chelsea to overwhelm the Royals in defence as they did in the early stages at the DW Stadium.

If Roman Abramovich wanted attacking football then he also must have cracked a smile when witnessing the performance of Chelsea's new marauding right winger, Branislav Ivanovic!

The west Londoners laid down an impressive marker at Wigan and in front of their fans you just feel that the Blues will outclass newly promoted Reading.

The teams have only met four times in the Premier League, with Chelsea winning all but one of them and drawing the other 2-2.

The Berkshire sides' away record against the big teams makes fairly woeful reading too; in their previous stint in the top flight, Reading took only five away points in total against last season's top six clubs. And as Opta tell us, Reading have only won seven of their 38 road trips in the Premier League to date.

One shred of positivity though is that the visitors have managed to find the back of the net in 19 of their last 20 games, albeit against lesser opposition. It is difficult to look beyond the home win here at 1.271/4.

Chelsea to score in both halves

With Chelsea's beginning the season so strongly, there is potential here for a bit of a goal fest.

With the likes of Hazard, Juan Mata, Fernando Torres, Frank Lampard and Oscar all providing a goal threat, it is difficult to see Reading keeping the hosts out in either half and at 1.774/5, this makes an attractive punt.

Stamford Bridge is traditionally a prosperous home for Chelsea, in the last three league games of last season there, they plundered eight goals, only failing to register twice there in the whole of the 2011/12 Premier League campaign.

Sending off

Given the derby-like nature of this fixture, it's not at all surprising that it has thrown up a few disciplinary issues over the years.

As Opta tell us, there have been three red cards in the four Premier League games between Reading and Chelsea (two for Reading, one for Chelsea), so
backing a red card at 5.39/2 has a certain sadistic pull. Calm down boys.

Best Bet: Back Chelsea to score in both halves @ 1.774/5
Other Recommended Bet: Back there to be a sending off @ 5.39/2

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Wigan Athletic v Chelsea, KO: Sunday 13:30, Sky Sports 1,
Match Odds: Wigan 6.411/2, Chelsea 1.664/6, The Draw 4.03/1

Saturday, August 18, 2012

Wigan v Chelsea: Blues can edge tight match

Recommended Bets
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ 3.9n/a
Back 0-1 Correct Score @ 8.415/2
Back Half Time Draw @ 2.47/5
Back 9pts or Above Bookings Odds @ 2.021/1

Wigan entertain Chelsea at home this Sunday lunchtime with both teams looking to begin the season as they ended the last. The Latics will be hopeful of avoiding yet another relegation battle while the Blues appear set up to challenge for the title, writes Feizal Rahman.

Despite winning the FA Cup and Champions League, Chelsea have spent heavily over the summer to address what was a disappointing Premier League campaign last year - lavishing in excess of £60m on Eden Hazard, Oscar and Marko Marin.

Wigan have lost forward Hugo Rodellega and midfielder Mohamed Diame but were able to add Arouna Kone and Ryo Miyaichi (loan). Yet, perhaps their most important piece of business was keeping hold of manager, Roberto Martinez.

Victor Moses is in the Latics' squad despite being the subject of interest from the Blues over the summer. Two of Chelsea's new boys, Hazard and Oscar, are set to make their league debuts, though Marin is sidelined with a hamstring injury.

Match Odds
Since gaining promotion to the Premier League, Wigan have won only two of their opening home games of the season and have twice lost to Chelsea in those. The Blues, conversely, have won eight of their last 10 openers on the road.

Chelsea have traditionally found the DW Stadium a happy hunting ground with five wins from seven visits. However, the Latics' sole victory against the West Londoners did come at home with a 3-1 victory against 10 men back in 2009.

Opta note that Wigan won their final four fixtures at home last season, a run that helped ensure their top flight survival. In contrast, Chelsea took maximum points in only one of their last nine away trips, losing four of those.

This fixture hints at being a typically tight first game of the season with both sides looking to blow away the cobwebs. However, Chelsea should have enough class to sneak the win at 1.664/6 and are around 2.26/5 to do so with a -1.0 Asian handicap.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Chelsea were far from prolific on the road last term, firing blanks in four of their last nine games in the league and failing to score more than once in all but one of those. Wigan, meanwhile, conceded just five from their final seven at home.

The visitors have twice won by a single goal at the DW Stadium and with their superior defence can be taken to repeat a 0-1 Correct Score at 8.415/2. Under 2.5 Goals trades at 1.981/1 but under 1.5 Goals may have greater appeal at 3.9n/a.

Other Markets

The Blues parted company with their talismanic striker, Didier Drogba, following the Champions League win and the goalscoring burden will now fall heavily on Fernando Torres, who has admitted he wasn't in the right frame of mind last season.

The Spaniard has, however, shown signs of a renaissance over the summer with goals in the European Championships and the Community Shield last weekend. He can be backed at 5.04/1 to be First Goalscorer and 2.26/5 To Score at any time.

In the 12 away games since Chelsea's last visit to Wigan, Roberto Di Matteo's side have led at half time just twice. Wigan, meanwhile, have trailed at the break on two occasions in their last eight home fixtures. The half-time draw is available at 2.47/5.

These were two of the most ill-disciplined teams last term with 114 cautions between them. Opta also highlight that Wigan committed the most fouls of any team, so 9pts and Above in the Bookings Odds at 2.021/1 may reward.

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Friday, April 6, 2012

Opta Stats: Routine home wins for Man United and Chelsea

Opta

/ Richard / 05 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ashley Young's strike at Ewood Park was his fifth in the league this term

"Wigan have lost 14 of their last 15 Premier League trips to London, conceding 46 goals in that period."

Manchester United and Chelsea look set to cruise to comfortable wins, while Spurs and Wolves are gearing up for more away-day misery...

Manchester United v QPR
United have conceded just one goal in their last five Premier League home matches
QPR have failed to score in four of seven league trips to sides currently in the Premier League's top ten. As for Manchester United, they have already kept eight clean sheets in the league at home this season and each of the other five teams in the bottom six have all lost without scoring at Old Trafford.
More stats

Chelsea v Wigan
Wigan have lost 14 of their last 15 Premier League trips to London, conceding 46 goals in that period (3.1 per game)
Roberto Martinez's side have kept just one clean sheet away from home all season, and have conceded three or more on no fewer than six occasions on their travels. Chelsea meanwhile have netted three or more in seven league clashes at Stamford Bridge this term. They put four past Aston Villa at Villa Park last weekend.
More stats

Sunderland v Tottenham
Sunderland have won six and lost just one of their eight league games at the Stadium of Light under Martin O'Neill
Harry Redknapp's side have not won any of their last six league fixtures away from home, (W0 D3 L3), and have failed to score in all but one of their previous four on their travels. And Spurs' record at the Stadium of Light offers little hope of a turnaround, having come out on top in just one of their last six visits. Sunderland have taken four points from the last six available, including a highly creditable draw at the Etihad Stadium.
More stats

Stoke v Wolves
Wolves have won just one of the last 14 Premier League away games (W1 D5 L8)
Terry Connor's side have now lost five successive league fixtures and have taken just a solitary point from the last 21 available. Stoke are not in much better shape, having not won any of their last four in the league, but they are unbeaten in three at the Britannia Stadium, two of which they have won without conceding.
More stats

Manchester City can ill-afford another slip-up as they head to the Emirates......

The Opta stats indicate QPR aren't likely to enjoy their trip to Old Trafford......

The Opta stats suggest Wolves' away record spells yet more bad news for Terry Connor's beleaguered men......

Thursday, April 5, 2012

The Big Match Tactical View: Chelsea v Benfica

Match odds: Chelsea [1.77], Benfica [5.5], The Draw [3.9]

/ Michael Cox / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Benfica right-back Maxi Pereira might be a decent bet for a booking

"Nicolas Gaitan seemed fairly quiet in the first leg, yet still created seven chances, four more than any other player."

The first leg saw Chelsea snatch a crucial away goal, and now Benfica have to score at Stamford Bridge. Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle.

Chelsea v Benfica, Wednesday 7:45, ITV1.

Despite the balance of the tie having shifted towards Chelsea, it's difficult to see how the two teams will line-up particularly differently to at the Estadio Da Luz. There are slight doubts over the fitness of a centre-back on either side - David Luiz for Chelsea, and also Jardel, the man who effectively replaced Luiz at Benfica. Aside from that, don't expect any major surprises.

The onus is on Jorge Jesus to get Benfica back into this tie - they must score to prevent elimination. In recent years in Europe, Jesus has often preferred a more cautious approach away from home, with playmaker Pablo Aimar dropping to the bench, and an additional holding midfielder coming into the side. But that was generally when Aimar played at the tip of the diamond behind a front two - now he's fielded behind just one forward, Oscar Cardozo, and I expect that to continue here.

Another option would be to play another striker like Bruno Rodrigo from the start, with Aimar deeper (or on the bench) - but this is probably too offensive, and Benfica will look to get a grip in midfield in the early stages. Rodrigo will probably be introduced around the 70 minute mark if Benfica need a goal, with Aimar (substituted in all six of his Champions League starts this season) likely to give way.

Roberto Di Matteo went with a defensive-minded midfield trio of Raul Meireles, Jon Obi Mikel and Ramires in the first game (no Frank Lampard) - and despite being the home side here, I expect another cautious selection. One difference might be the positioning of Ramires - he's been used as a right-of-centre shuttling midfielder for Chelsea until now, but Di Matteo has often favoured him out on the flank, so don't be surprised to see him out on the right wing instead. A position on the left, to prevent his old teammate Maxi Pereira getting forward from full-back, is not impossible - though that would mean moving Juan Mata. He can play in the centre, of course, but Di Matteo probably wants to be more cautious in that zone.

Mata will probably start out on the left and drift inside, and there's a decent chance that Maxi Pereira will stick too tight and be booked tonight. He's collected 17 cards for club and country this season, and I'll back him to pick up another here, at [3.5].

But this game is about how Benfica can get back into the tie, and there are probably three men Chelsea have to watch, in different ways. Axel Witsel competed 49 passes in the first leg, more than any other player, and Chelsea have to prevent him getting too much time on the ball. Instructing someone like Meireles or Ramires to get tight to him would make sense.

The second threat is Nicolas Gaitan, who seemed fairly quiet in the first leg, yet still created seven chances, four more than any other player. He and Bruno Cesar will have license to switch flanks, and Gaitan is quite clever with how he drifts into deep positions on the flanks to provide crosses. Paolo Ferreira, more comfortable coming up the pitch than Branislav Ivanovic, might be a decent option at right-back.

The third dangerman is Cardozo, who had a staggering eight shots in the first match. He'll simply put himself slightly past the penalty spot when the ball is wide, and despite Luiz's good performance in the first leg, Cardozo will probably look to test him in the air again.

But this might be a reasonably narrow game - Benfica play with something approaching a midfield diamond rather than a flat four, while Chelsea's potential wide players - Juan Mata, Ramires, Daniel Sturridge - are unlikely to force many corners. Therefore, backing 9 or less corners at [2.6] might be a decent option.

james Eastham believes the Portuguese visitors will push the hosts hard at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night....

If Chelsea end up going on to win this season's Champions League, the contribution of Tuesday night's match-winner Salomon Kalou will not be forgotten. It may well be one of his last because the enigmatic Ivorian may well leave at...

FA Cup wins for Spurs and Everton set up exciting semi-finals and Chelsea pull off excellent away victory in Portugal......

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Premier League Previews: Villa and Chelsea to share the spoils

Aston Villa v Chelsea - Back The Draw @ [3.7]
Everton v West Brom - Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.94]
Fulham v Norwich - Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.8]

/ Feizal Rahman / 30 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Aston Villa boss Alex McLeish

"Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions throughout March compared to Villa’s three and such exertion from the West Londoners may well be about to catch up with them, despite some squad rotation."

Chelsea have played almost three times as many games as Aston Villa in the month of March and that could be a factor in deciding the outcome this weekend says Feizal Rahman, with the draw his recommended bet.

Aston Villa v Chelsea, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Aston Villa [4.9], Chelsea [1.88], The Draw [3.7]

Villa continue to show the sort of regressive form that has left them three places above the drop zone. Alex McLeish's side have managed just two victories in 2012, with four draws and four losses. The Claret and Blue have six defeats in their last ten at Villa Park, with just one win in eight.

Under the lead of Roberto Di Matteo, Chelsea have progressed in the FA Cup and Champions League. However, in the league, Opta state that they have only two wins from nine and, on the road, they have lost their last three and picked up maximum points just once since the turn of the year.

Chelsea have played eight games in all competitions throughout March compared to Villa's three and such exertion from the West Londoners may well be about to catch up with them, despite some squad rotation. The Blues will also not be encouraged by a poor record against Villa recently.

Opta note that Chelsea have won just once in their last 12 visits to Villa Park, otherwise losing four and drawing seven. Consequently, Chelsea look a lay at [1.88] in the Match Odds market with more appeal about the [3.7] on offer for the Draw.

Villa have struck just five times in their last eight at home, however, Chelsea have found the net only twice in their last five away games. Under 2.5 Goals should attract at [1.85] with a 0-0 and 1-1 Correct Score available at [12.0] and [8.0] respectively.

Everton v West Bromwich Albion, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Everton [1.9], West Brom [4.7], The Draw [3.7]

Everton have finally kicked into gear after their traditional slow start to the season and the Blue half of Merseyside are now just two points off neighbours, Liverpool - who they will go on to play in the FA Cup semi-final at Wembley next month.

Back-to-back away wins in the league and cup will boost the confidence of David Moyes' men who have suffered just two league defeats in their last 10. A loss to Arsenal ended a run of three straight victories at Goodison Park, each over sides in the top five.

Having previously won three on the spin themselves, West Brom have picked up just a point from their most recent three in the league. However, Opta state that Roy Hodgson's side have suffered only two losses in the last nine away trips. Yet, Everton have won three of the five Premier League meetings between the two at Goodison with West Brom's sole victory coming in November 2010.

The Baggies have failed to score in just four of their 15 away games so far this season. However, the Toffeemen remain stingy at home and - as Opta reveal - they have conceded only once in their last four, with 10 of the last 12 fixtures at Goodison producing two goals or fewer.

Everton should get back to winning ways and are [1.9] for the victory. Under 2.5 Goals looks reasonably priced at [1.94] but Under 1.5 Goals could appeal more at [3.7] , with a 1-0 Correct Score on offer at [8.6].

Fulham v Norwich City, KO: Saturday 15:00, Match Odds: Fulham [1.75], Norwich [5.4], The Draw [4.0]

Fulham have lost their last three games, failing to score in each, as Opta inform us. Yet, the solid home record of Martin Jol's men has kept them out of trouble and ahead of a 3-0 defeat to Swansea last time out, they had six wins from eight at Craven Cottage, with a whopping 18 goals scored.

Inconsistency has been Norwich's problem all season, only able to put together a short run of point-winning form before a string of defeats. Away from home, the Canaries have three losses from their last four though were undefeated in their four prior to that.

According to Opta, Norwich's record against Fulham will offer them scant hope with not a single win in nine meetings since 1986. Three of the last four trips to Craven Cottage have resulted in defeat, the most recent a 6-0 hiding seven years ago.

Fulham should be good for the win at [1.75], while Over 2.5 Goals looks a safe bet at [1.8] with just one of the last seven at Craven Cottage failing to deliver at least three goals. Yet, the West Londoners have led at the break just four times all season so it may pay to back the Half Time Draw at [2.4].

Meanwhile, Clint Dempsey has nine goals on home turf this term while on-loan Pavel Pogrebnyak - who has indicated a desire to stay on at Fulham - has four strikes from three starts at the Cottage. The duo are [2.7] and [2.5] to score respectively.

Recommended Bets:

Will the two Wanderers return goals in the crunch bottom-of-the-table clash on Saturday at Molineux? Gareth Purnell thinks there may be value in betting that they will.......

Manchester City and Arsenal are amongst the clubs playing on Saturday afternoon, but it's the price of Bolton to beat out-of-form Wolves that has got Mike Norman really excited....

Newcastle are closing in on a top-six finish and if they harbour ambitions of building on their success, they're in for an eventful summer......

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

FA Cup & Champions League Results: Patient Spurs and Chelsea rewarded

/ Maxliu / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

FA Cup wins for Spurs and Everton set up exciting semi-finals and Chelsea pull off excellent away victory in Portugal...

Tottenham Hotspur are [3.6] to win the FA Cup and Chelsea are [1.14] to win their Champions League quarter-final after second-half goals earned important victories for both London clubs.

The Blues will be especially pleased with their 1-0 win over Benfica in Portugal. The away side were matched at [6.4] and they had to work very hard in every department to achieve an excellent win. Salomon Kalou scored the game's only goal with 15 minutes remaining, finishing from Fernando Torres' smart pass.

It was a fantastic result for caretaker manager Roberto Di Matteo who freshened up his side after the weekend's draw with Spurs. The gamble pulled off with Raul Meireles and Torres both impressing. Chelsea can now be backed at [11.0] to win the Champions League. Real Madrid, who were matched at [2.7] for their 3-0 victory away to APOEL, can be backed at [3.4] to reclaim Europe's biggest prize.

The FA Cup semi-finals should be feisty affairs with Spurs set to play Chelsea and Everton meeting Liverpool, following this evening's results.

Bolton provided stern resistance against Spurs' stellar attacking talents for 73 minutes before Ryan Nelsen rewarded those who matched him at [55.0] in the first goalscorer market.

In fact, a flurry of late goals meant that a number of long odds bets came in as Gareth Bale scored Spurs' second and Kevin Davies notched a Bolton consolation before an injury time strike from Louis Saha meant that 3-1, matched at a whopping [290.00], was the correct score.

Everton were by far the better team in their FA Cup quarter-final replay away to Sunderland. David Moyes team scored a goal in each half- the first from Nikica Jelavic, the second an own goal by David Vaughan - as they set up a mouthwatering semi against their local rivals. Everton can be backed at [5.5] to win the competition they last lifted in 1995.

David Luiz and Ramires are both returning to their old stomping ground and could prove the key to Chelsea's success......

James Eastham expects an entertaining encounter in Portugal on Tuesday evening....

Chelsea fans may think they dodged something of a bullet by drawing Benfica but there are good stats to suggest the Portuguese outfit shouldn't be too disppapointed with the draw themselves, says Matthew Walton....

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Benfica v Chelsea: Goals set to light up the Lisbon night

/ James Eastham / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Didier Drogba has been in excellent form in the tournament

"Benfica have scored in 16 of their last 17 European games excluding qualifiers, while Chelsea have scored in nine successive games, their best run in European history."

James Eastham expects an entertaining encounter in Portugal on Tuesday evening.

Benfica v Chelsea, 19:45 GMT, Sky Sports 2, Match Odds: Benfica [2.44], Chelsea [3.3], The Draw [3.35].

Having overcome Napoli against all odds in the second leg of their last 16 clash Chelsea will travel to Lisbon to face Benfica this week believing they can make it to the last four for the first time since 2009.

The market certainly think so. Chelsea go into the tie as [1.58] favourites to qualify, with Benfica [2.68]. But to get anything out of this week's game, Chelsea will need to improve on their away record of W0-D2-L3 in their last five Champions League away matches. Those problems on the road, plus Benfica's outstanding record of just one defeat in their last eight home games against English opposition, suggest Chelsea's price of [3.3] to win on Tuesday night is justified.

Benfica at [2.44] and the draw at [3.35] look the smart picks in the match market, but goals are a stronger bet on this game. As Opta stats reveal, Benfica have scored in 16 of their last 17 European games excluding qualifiers, while Chelsea have scored in nine successive games, their best run in European history. In each of their previous six encounters against Portuguese opposition (all FC Porto), Chelsea scored at least once.

The last round also points towards goals: Benfica lost 3-2 at Zenit St Petersburg, while Chelsea's 90-minute scorelines against Napoli were 3-1 defeat (away) and 3-1 win (home).

The selections worth looking at are 'Yes' in the Both Teams to Score? market at [1.91]. Over 2.5 goals at [2.3] and 3.5 Goals at [4.3].

Finally, if you're looking for a player to score those goals, Didier Drogba is your man. The Ivory Coast international has scored four goals in Chelsea's last four Champions League matches. He'll be available to score any time at around [3.3].

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.3]
Other Recommended Bets: 'Yes' in Both Teams to Score? market @ [1.91]; Didier Drogba in 'To Score' market @ [3.3].

There were some pretty familar names on the Chelsea scoresheet as Roberto di Matteo managed to overturn a 3-1 deficit against Napoli and steer his side into the next round after extra-time. Elsewhere, it was business as usual for Real...

Tobias Gourlay expects the Premier League to wake up on Thursday morning without a team in the Champions League quarter-finals for the first time in 16 years...

Opta Stats: Real Madrid to run riot as Chelsea toil in Benfica

/ Richard / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

After two draws, Real got back to winning ways against Sociedad

"The Portuguese side have not failed to score at home since November 2009."

The Champions League Opta stats point to another comprehensive win for Real Madrid, though it will be a considerably tighter affair in Portugal...

APOEL v Real Madrid

The Cypriot side have netted just one goal in their last four games in the competition
And they are having similar problems in domestic football, having scored just twice in their previous three home matches. APOEL were held to a goalless draw by Omonia Nicosia as recently as Friday. Real Madrid meanwhile have only conceded three goals in their last eight away games in the Champions League.

Jose Mourinho's side have scored 24 goals in their eight games in the Champions League this season; an average of three a game
Real Madrid have netted at least three in four of their previous six fixtures in all competitions, scoring four or more on three occasions. And though APOEL have kept four successive clean sheets at home in domestic football, it's an entirely different story in Europe. In only two of eight Champions League matches this season have the Cypriots prevented their opponents from scoring.

Benfica v Chelsea

The Blues have scored in nine successive European matches for the first time in their history (excl. qualifiers)
Similarly, Benfica have found the net in all but one of their previous 17 matches in European competition (excl. qualifiers). In fact, the Portuguese side have not failed to score at home since November 2009. And prior to their goalless draw with Tottenham, Chelsea had netted in each of their previous five clashes in all competitions.

No side has scored a higher proportion of their goals in the first half of Champions League games this season than Benfica (67%)
There have been a total of six goals scored before the interval in the previous two domestic fixtures at the Estadio da Luz. Chelsea have scored a first-half goal in five of their eight Champions League fixtures, including in both legs against Napoli.

APOEL v Real Madrid, 19:45 GMT, Sky Sports 4, Match Odds: APOEL [14.5], Real Madrid [1.31], The Draw [5.8]. How do you gauge the chances of a side that have no pedigree in a tournament and are the first representatives...

Europe's footballing powerhouse holds the favourites in both of the continent's club competitions and their dominance can continue right through the summer, says Matthew Walton...

Real Madrid were the big winners in the Champions League quarter and semi-final draws, being backed in from [3.8] to [3.1] after being drawn in the opposite half to Barcelona, Chelsea and AC Milan....

Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Weekend Football Round-up: Chelsea resurgent under DiMatteo

/ Ralph Ellis / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can DiMatteo's Chelsea overcome Manchester City?

"Di Matteo will take his side to The Etihad Stadium on Wednesday full of confidence and they could be value at [4.4] to win there."

It's been a traumatic weekend and Ralph Ellis, like everybody else, is thinking about Fabrice Muamba and his family. Here, our man considers results in the FA Cup and Premier League...

I'm sure all the Betfair community will send their thoughts to Fabrice Muamba and his family. Everyone who cares for football has been united by their concern.

Events away from White Hart Lane got me thinking about how the recipe for success at one club can produce failure at another. Just look at Chelsea and Wolves.

Meanwhile, It is four games since Roman Abramovich reacted to a defeat by West Bromwich Albion and sent Andre Villas Boas out the exit door - and the decision to promote his assistant Roberto Di Matteo has transformed the place. Four wins, including the dramatic turnaround in the Champions League against Napoli, have restored morale and confidence. Goodness me, he's even got Fernando Torres scoring goals again.

Wolves owner Steve Morgan must be looking at that and wondering why. He also took action after losing to Albion and ended up promoting the number two. But Terry Connor's four games in charge at Molineux have lurched from one disaster to another. And a 5-0 thrashing by Manchester United yesterday has now dumped them firmly at the bottom of the table.

Wolves are now [1.26] relegation favourites and [2.34] to finish up rock bottom(http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=103375374&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013). And this week will tell us much about the character of Morgan, who made his money building houses and had planned to build his football club with the same care. Will he hold his nerve and stick by his decision to promote Connor? Or will he let himself be rushed into going back to the short list of potential managers he spoke to just a few weeks ago.

There is a sense around Molineux that the players are a bit too comfortable under Connor's control. They like him, they enjoy his training sessions. But they have let him down, failing to properly defend set pieces - and Ronald Zubar's reckless two tackles to get an early red card yesterday was a symptom of a lack of concentration. It's the sort of thing Steve Bruce would focus on if the owner went back to him - and the former Sunderland manager is now just [4.0] in the next Wolves manager market. Betfair's punters doubt Connor will survive. He was appointed until the end of the season but must still be in charge when they play Manchester City on April 22 for the market to pay out. He is now [2.1] to lay.

The big issue at the bottom will be how many points are needed to avoid relegation. Last year, Birmingham went down with 39, but it looks like a much smaller total will be needed this time. Quite possibly Norwich on 36 points already have enough, despite losing to a single goal at Newcastle yesterday.

Albion manager Roy Hodgson reckoned a couple of weeks ago that his side were already safe with 32, so he would have seen Paul Scharner's equaliser to earn a 1-1 draw at Wigan as extra insurance. The result still lifted the Latics off the foot of the table and the track record of last season, when Roberto Martinez conjured two wins in their final two games, would make me nervous about backing them at [1.31] to go down.
Swansea are certainly safe after a 3-0 win at Fulham, and those who backed them at anything up to [7.2] to be the top promoted team can safely turn the market green - their price now is [1.25].

The better that Swansea do, the more you wonder whether Abramovich got the wrong former Mourinho aide when he appointed Villas Boas rather than ex-reserve coach and now Swansea boss Brendan Rodgers. But at least the appointment of Di Matteo is working, and that could be good news for Manchester United, now [1.49] favourites in the title race having built a four point lead and brought their goal difference to within three of Manchester City at the same time. Di Matteo will take his side to The Etihad Stadium on Wednesday full of confidence and they could be value at [4.4] to win there.

Despite their upturn Chelsea at [3.6] aren't quite favourites to win the FA Cup. That place belongs to [3.55] Liverpool as the only other side definitely in the semi-finals following a 2-1 win over Stoke in which Stewart Downing scored only his second goal of the season. Sunderland, a side who definitely did benefit from changing manager when Martin O'Neill arrived, still look value at [10] after earning a replay from a difficult tie at Everton.

Five-star United [1.49] for the title after destroying new relegation favourites Wolves...

Carlos Tevez is due to return to Premier League action against Chelsea - something we never thought would happen during the Argentinean's self-imposed strike - and it's a sign that City are getting desperate in the title race, says Richard...

There were just two games in the Premier League today with Wigan held by West Brom and Swansea trouncing Fulham. Joe Dyer has the betting headlines from both matches...

Saturday, March 17, 2012

FA Cup Betting: Old guard to produce again for Chelsea

FA Cup

/ Frank Gregan / 17 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

They did it in midweek - can they do it again on Sunday?

"The combined age of Chelsea's four scorers on Wednesday night was about a millennium-and-a-half and it may prove fruitful to stick with the elder statesmen again."

Roberto Di Matteo has wasted no time getting Chelsea back to winning ways and that good run can continue at home to Leicester in the FA Cup, says Frank Gregan

Chelsea V Leicester City, Sunday KO 1405 Live on ESPN.Match Odds: Chelsea [1.3], Leicester [13.0], The Draw [6.2]
While the Chelsea faithful will be delighted with the start that Roberto Di Matteo has made, the away fans making the trip down from the East Midlands will be wishing that Andre Villas-Boas had been given just a few more weeks in the job. What looked like a banana skin when the draw was made now looks like a home banker thanks to Di Matteo putting his faith in the old guard and the Chelsea legends stepping up to the plate these last couple of weeks.

There's always been rumours about player power at Stamford Bridge but the caretaker manager appears to be comfortable with the input of his senior players.

John Terry is a doubt for Chelsea as is his central defensive partner David Luiz, which only strengthens the argument that Di Matteo will rest some of those that played a major part of the 120 minutes in midweek. Raul Meireles is available for selection after suspension and the midweek bench was testament to how much strength in depth the Italian has at his disposal.

Leicester have Paul Konchesky available after a three match ban but Liam Moore, Conrad Logan and Danny Drinkwater are all cup-tied.

Match Odds
This is one of those markets that can have you reaching for the defiblarator. [1.3] is short, there's no denying it but where else can you make 30% on your investment in a couple of hours? It's difficult to see any other outcome other than a home win, it's accepted that Birmingham City did the Championship proud in the last round by drawing at the Bridge but that was against a team in disarray.

Di Matteo can't have reunited the dressing room in such a short space of time. Those who were AVB's favourites and now find themselves warming the bench won't be thrilled about the change in circumstances but the important thing is the players that the Italian has placed his faith in are producing. History is not on Leicester's side, Opta points out that the Foxes have never beaten Chelsea in the FA Cup, losing all four ties and despite knocking out Premier League new boys Norwich in the last round Stamford is likely to prove to be a bridge too far for Nigel Pearson's men.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Chelsea managed 'overs' on their own on Wednesday night against the side lying fourth in Serie A and who have conceded less than a goal a game on the road in the Italian league this season. It's therefore no surprise to see 'overs' priced at a miserly [1.64]. Leicester also have goals in their camp, Opta points out that Jermaine Beckford is the joint top scorer in the FA Cup this season with five goals and has scored 14 in his last 15 FA Cup games. 'Overs' it is then, but if you don't like betting odds-on take a look at over 3.5 goals at [2.64]

To Score
The combined age of Chelsea's four scorers on Wednesday night was about a millennium-and-a-half and it may prove fruitful to stick with the elder statesmen again. Frank Lampard's goal came from the penalty spot but the timing of his late runs into the box looked spot-on once again. The selection in this market was a toss up between Didier Drogba and Lamps but the latter gets the nod because he's the main man when a spot kick is awarded. He's also likely to be a much better price at [2.3] compared to Drogba who will be in the region of [1.9]. If you were impressed by the Opta fact relating to Jermaine Beckford's FA Cup goalscoring record you should consider the [5.5] that should be attainable for him to score at any time during the match.

Chelsea win Both Halves
Those of you that have a fancy for Chelsea but are trying to keep off the blood pressure pills might find this a more relaxing market. The [2.5] that should be available looks a very tempting proposistion.

After an impressive performance in midweek and some high-scoring cup games at Anfield, Mike Norman firmly believes Liverpool will beat Stoke on Sunday, and probably without conceding a goal....

Gareth Purnell trains his punting sights on Everton's Saturday lunchtime test at home to Sunderland, and he believes goals will be at a premium......

A thoroughly professional performance is expected from Tottenham when they host Bolton in the early-evening kick-off. The Trotters will battle hard, but home advantage means Spurs will get the job done....

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Against All Odds: Napoli can exploit divided Chelsea

Daily Tipping

/ Paul Robinson / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Chelsea will struggle to contain Ezequiel Lavezzi

"Napoli are flying at the moment with six consecutive wins, culminating in a 6-3 hammering of Cagliari last time out... "

Napoli travel to Chelsea tonight with a 3-1 advantagein the second leg of their Champions League last 16 tie. The home side are odds-on to win the match but they are in disarray and Paul Robinson thinks they will struggle.

Steven Gerrard did the business for us yesterday with a hat-trick that got up the three goals required in the Merseyside Derby. It means that I have now given you 10 successful odds-on lays out of 12 and profits are soaring.

Chelsea are struggling at the moment and they may need to win this competition if they want to be in it again next year as they are down in fifth place in the Premier League. Roman Abramovich has sacked Andre Villas-Boas since the first leg of this tie and appointed Roberto Di Matteo as interim manager until the end of the season. Since he took over, Chelsea have won two matches, but they were against Championship side Birmingham and Stoke. The latter game finished 1-0 to the Blues but the opposition were down to 10 men for over an hour and it was hardly an impressive performance.

At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea have been victorious just four times in the last eight and the only side that are on Napoli's level were Manchester United, who they blew a three goal lead against to draw 3-3. Captain John Terry has come out this week and denied that there is a split in the camp but it's pretty obvious that the likes of Terry, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba rule the roost and that is having a negative effect on the performances of others.

Napoli are flying at the moment with six consecutive wins, culminating in a 6-3 hammering of Cagliari last time out that could have been a cricket score. Walter Mazzarri has his side in form at the right time of the season as they are up to fourth in Serie A in their quest to re-qualify for the Champions League. In Ezequiel Lavezzi and Edinson Cavani, Napoli have a forward line that is on a par with some of the best in Europe and they will be absolutely lethal on the break tonight as Chelsea pour on the pressure to wipe out the two goal deficit. The last time Azzurri were in England, they held Manchester City to a draw and I have a feeling that they will do no worse than that in this one. They have too many goals in them to get beaten by Chelsea.

Chelsea have to go for it but they have not shown that they have enough firepower to make me think that they will score enough against Napoli. I can't see how they're going to keep a clean sheet so that means they will need at least two to win the match and even that is doubtful. They will be chasing the game and could well be hit by the deadly Napoli attack on the break and the tie and the match could well be put to bed. Chelsea are trading at [1.81] which is too short and I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Chelsea against Napoli @ [1.81]

Jonno Turner is backing two capital clubs to triumph this evening, one in Germany and another in England......

It's the Merseyside derby tonight in what promises to be an enthralling encounter. Under 2.5 goals is odds-on and the statistics do point to it being a low scoring affair, but in-form Paul Robinson thinks the formbook will be turned...

Jonno Turner is backing Reading to charge into the Championship's top two with a win at Doncaster, and foresees a return to form for League Two promotion hopefuls Crawley......

Opta Stats: Chelsea v Napoli

Opta

/ Michael Lintorn / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ezequiel Lavezzi is enjoying one of the most prolific spells of his career

Napoli have fired in all of their Champions League games, and if they maintain that run at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea may face too big a deficit to overhaul...

The Blues have won just three of their seven Champions League matches this season despite having taken the lead in all seven games.

Chelsea have won all three home games though, scoring 10 goals without reply.

However, the Londoners have failed to score in each of their last three Champions League home games in the knockout stages.

For the first time since 1966 (four straight wins in the Fairs Cup) Napoli have won three consecutive games in European competition.

Both sides have scored in each of their seven Champions League games this season.

Napoli have the best conversion rate in this season's Champions League, scoring with 22% of their shots.

Six of the seven goals Napoli have shipped this term in the Champions League have been conceded in the first half.

The Blues have drawn Italian opposition in two of the last three seasons at this stage, beating Juventus in 2008-09 and losing to Inter in 2009-10.

Didier Drogba has scored four goals in his last four Champions League appearances, but failed to score in the first leg.

Edinson Cavani (five goals, two assists) has had a hand in seven of Napoli's 13 Champions League goals this season, including all three goals in the first leg.

The Opta stats don't paint a pretty picture of Liverpool's league form in 2012 ahead of a Merseyside derby in which they could be leapfrogged......

After scrutinising the Opta stats, Michael Lintorn is optimistic about Bolton and Blackburn's chances, foresees a slow start at Carrow Road and anticipates a red card at the Emirates......

The Opta stats point to a Tottenham triumph and an early opener at Goodison Park on Saturday teatime, argues Michael Lintorn......

Monday, March 5, 2012

Chelsea boo-boys should embrace the AVB era

/ Richard Aikman / 04 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

He was a genius less than a year ago - is he really a busted flush now?

"The Stamford Bridge boo-boys should recognise that the problem is less with the ‘dead man walking’ than it is the zombies under his charge."

Football's new economic realities mean Chelsea cannot simply spend their way out of the current 'crisis' and with so much dead wood in the ranks the best option must be to stick with Villas-Boas, says Richard Aikman

Watching André Villas-Boas trudging through the bowels of the Stadio San Paolo in Naples two weeks ago was a sorry sight. The Chelsea manager cut a disconsolate figure; head down and wearily bringing one leg before another, he had the air of a convict on his way to death row.

Fast forward 12 days and, after league defeat no.7, it now just seems a matter of when rather than if the Portuguese tactician's three-year plan will be brought to a premature end. The young tactician who could do no wrong at Porto last season has not made the transition to Stamford Bridge quite as seamlessly as the Special One, as odds of around [1.25] about his imminent exit would suggest.

The only surprise is that he has lasted this long. Roman Abramovich is the most trigger-happy owner in the English top flight and at a club where coming second or losing the Champions League final on penalties is deemed a failure, Villas-Boas' continued employment is a remarkable feat of survival.

There are many naysayers, and it has been a fierce baptism of fire for the Portuguese, but if he was hired to implement a "three-year plan" then he should be given the time to do so. Rome was not built in a day, and if we think back far enough it is worth remembering that Manchester United are now enjoying the rewards from having kept the faith in a manager of their own who won nothing in his first three seasons at the club. In the autumn of 1989 supporters at Old Trafford unveiled a banner that read: "Three years of excuses and it's still crap...ta-ra Fergie."

The difference between the two cases is expectation. Sir Alex Ferguson took over a club languishing at the wrong end of the table and which had not won the league for 19 years, while Chelsea's memories of the Jose Mourinho years and Carlo Ancelotti's double-winning season remain fresh in the mind.

For Abramovich, though, simply winning is no longer enough. He wants his Chelsea side to win with panache; he wants players to come through the youth system in the way the graduates of Barcelona's Masia academy do on a conveyor belt of self-sustaining success; he wants a mantra like the one used by AC Milan: "Vincere e convincere" (Win and convince). But this takes time ? it is a work in progress.

Villas-Boas is trying to completely revolutionise a side who have largely been brainwashed in the defence-first Mourinho way.

"There is so much pressure to succeed," the Chelsea coach said recently.

"I agree with Louis Van Gaal when he says it is much harder to defend an attacking philosophy. It is definitely easier to defend a cautious, defensive organisation with a compact block than to defend creativity, talent and attacking fluency. Positive teams will clash with those who 'contain and counter' and it will not be easy to triumph."

This is exactly the difficulty Chelsea came across at West Brom on Saturday, at Napoli a fortnight ago and at Everton last month. But the reason today's newspapers are suggesting Rafa Benitez or Pep Guardiola are preparing to replace Villas-Boas is because he has lost the dressing room. The powerful clique of players who are finding themselves increasingly marginalised by Villas-Boas are able to undermine their coach because results are not justifying his methods in the short term.

Arsène Wenger met with similar resistance from the old guard when he first arrived at Arsenal, but he had the good fortune to win the double in his first full season in charge, so the cynics in and outside the camp were soon silenced. These days, though, the Premier League is a far more competitive place than 14 years ago and playing the long game means running the risk of missing the Champions League money train. Chelsea are odds against to finish in the Top Four.

Abramovich is hardly strapped for cash but the UEFA Fair Play rules means that he will soon no longer be able to throw unlimited funds at the problem - and neither does he want to - but in Villas-Boas's defence he has not really been able to bring in his own men yet. Since his arrival only Juan Mata - the one consistent performer in the side - Raul Mereiles and Gary Cahill are established players to have arrived on AVB's say-so and Chelsea's is a side that needs a full-scale overhaul if they are to challenge for further honours.

Hard as it may be for Blues supporters to accept, it is time to respect these new austere times. Instant gratification is no longer the way forward. And the Stamford Bridge boo-boys should recognise that the problem is less with the 'dead man walking' than it is the zombies under his charge.

Young manager is given his marching orders after poor run of games. Di Matteo takes the helm until the close season...

With two attacking sides both wanting the three points, this should be an entertaining game - Michael Cox looks at the tactical battle....

Spurs seem to be faltering as the season comes to a climax - time for 'Arry to earn his corn with a return to form against the champions, says Lee Dixon...

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Chelsea sack Villas Boas

/ Joe Dyer / 04 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Former manager and current first-team coach

"Villas Boas arrived in the summer having won the Portuguese league, League Cup and Europa League with Porto last season, the Portuguese club receiving £13.3m in compensation."

Young manager is given his marching orders after poor run of games. Di Matteo takes the helm until the close season

Chelsea are once again searching for a new manager following today's sacking of Andre Villas Boas after less than a year in charge at Stamford Bridge.

The 34-year-old was relieved of his duties following a poor run of form in all competitions that culminated in a 1-0 defeat at West Brom on Saturday.

Roberto Di Matteo, a former Chelsea player and current assistant to Villas Boas, will take over as first team coach until the end of the season.

Villas Boas arrived in the summer having won the Portuguese league, League Cup and Europa League with Porto last season, the Portuguese club receiving £13.3m in compensation.

But the 34-year-old was unable to revive the Blues.

Premier League champions as recently as 2010-11, Chelsea have suffered a turbulent season with reports of dressing room unrest and faltering form from a number of players, most notably £50m signing Fernando Torres who has scored just two league goals.

Chelsea are [2.62] to finish in the top four, having been backed at [1.06] earlier in the season.

With two attacking sides both wanting the three points, this should be an entertaining game - Michael Cox looks at the tactical battle....

Spurs seem to be faltering as the season comes to a climax - time for 'Arry to earn his corn with a return to form against the champions, says Lee Dixon...

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Chelsea v Manchester United sees record use of Betfair's Cash Out!

/ Dan Thomas / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Cash Out allowed Betfair customers to lock in profit before Javier Hernandez equalised yesterday

"Cash Out helps to expose the benefits of Exchange betting to our new users. Many Exchange customers may never trade within the Exchange purely backing a selection and waiting on a result."

A record number of Betfair users used the 'Cash Out' functionality to lock in profit during yesterday's 3-3 draw between Chelsea and Manchester United...

Cash Out uses a combination of back and lay bets to allow the customer to use their current exposure to lock in a profit, simply by pressing one button. It has been used more than 2m times since launch.

Of the 27,000 people who were betting on the Match Odds market during the thrilling draw at Stamford Bridge, 1,559 used the Cash Out button - beating the record set during El Clasico on January 18.

Some 179 customers backed Chelsea before the first goal and then went on to Cash Out before Man United equalised.

If they had let their bets ride they'd have lost £719 (an average of £4 each). But by using Cash Out to lock in a profit, they won £3,003 (an average of £16 each).

Cash Out was also popular with users protecting their profits against a late Man United goal - more than 1,000 customers cashed out in the last 15 minutes of the match.

Mike Woodbridge, Sports Product Specialist at Betfair, said: "Cash Out helps to expose the benefits of Exchange betting to our new users. Many customers may never trade, purely backing a selection and waiting on a result.

"For experienced Exchange users Cash Out provides a faster process by eliminating the need to calculate, and place, the combination of bets needed to green up or cut your losses.The feature will place the required bets on your behalf. Many of our customers that do not intend to Cash Out simply use the feature to assess how well their bets are doing."

In December, Betfair rolled out Cash Out functionality to mobile.

Monday, February 6, 2012

Premier League Results: United comeback stuns Chelsea

/ Maxliu / 05 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Magnificent Wayne Rooney scores a brace and inspires champions to come from 3-0 down to draw with Chelsea. Overs backers are smiling too...

Chelsea were matched at [1.03] before Manchester United came from three goals down to earn a draw that touched [50.0] in the match odds market.

The two sides have played out some epic contests in recent years but, for sheer entertainment, Sunday's match was the best ever. It was breathtaking.

Chelsea took the lead when Jonny Evans deflected the ball into his own net, following some excellent work from Daniel Sturridge. Early in the second-half, Fernando Torres whipped in a fantastic cross for Juan Mata to volley home. Minutes later, David Luiz found himself in space as he rose to head in for 3-0.

And then came the fight-back. United were awarded two penalties, for fouls on first Patrice Evra and later Danny Wellback. Wayne Rooney, who doesn't have best record from the spot, dispatched both.

With only one goal in it, the champions kept pressing. Sir Alex Ferguson threw on Javier Hernandez and Paul Scholes but United kept their shape and stuck to their game. That was how they created their equaliser as Ryan Giggs set up Hernandez who scored with a close-range header.

This was the first tme that Chelsea have surrendered a three goal lead at home in the Premier League. The 3-3 touched [210.00] and there was a decent pay out for those who backed over 5.5 goals at [60.0].

United's recovery was awseome but a point doesn't do them much good in the title race. They're out to [3.1] to win the league with Manchester City [1.62] two points ahead.

Earlier in the day, Newcastle picked up another three points as they beat Aston Villa 2-1 at St James' Park. Papiss Demba Cisse scored a stunning debut goal in the second half after the other Demba, Ba, had given his side the lead before the break. Robbie Keane was the away side's goal scorer.

The Magpies, for whom this was a fourth consecutive home leage win, are fifth in the table and can be backed at [7.2] for top four finish.

Join Tobias Gourlay for live text coverage, breaking betting news and up-to-the-minute stats from Stamford Bridge, where Manchester United can look forward to a warm reception on a cold day...

Manchester City's position as Premier League favourites strengthened marginally after Roberto Mancini's men comfortably beat Fulham on a cold night in Eastlands....

Super Dutchman hammers in a hat-trick as Arsenal destroy Blackburn. Meanwhile, Wolves pick up priceless points against big-spending QPR and Swansea win at the Hawthorns......