Against All Odds: Benfica just too short for Primeira Liga clash

"Guimaraes are running into a bit of form and will take hope from the fact that they haven’t lost to them in the league at home for two seasons."

Lay Benfica v Guimaraes @ 1.392/5

Benfica are long odds-on for their trip to Guimaraes in the Primeria Liga this evening and while they are the most likely winners, Paul Robinson thinks their price is just too short and has to be opposed.

Guimaraes are up to sixth in the league after back to back victories and after just missing out on European qualification last term, they have a great shot of making amends this time around. Pacos de Ferreira may be out of sight in fourth place, but they are level on points with Rio Ave in the last remaining qualifying spot, with only goal difference splitting them.

After a bit of a shaky start to their campaign at home, Rui Vitória's side have won three of their last five at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, losing just one to the reigning champions Porto. All those victories came with clean sheets and when they played Benfica at home last season, they beat them 1-0.  

Benfica are flying at the moment - unbeaten in the league and through to the quarter-finals of the Europa. They've won their last four Primeira Liga matches to nil, scoring a total of 10 goals. They really are in red-hot form, with Oscar Cardozo leading the way with 25 goals in all competitions.

They aren't completely infallible though as Braga managed to knock them out of the Taca da Liga on penalties at the end of February and another concern I have is that they had a hard game in France on Thursday against Bordeaux. 

It's quite clear that Jorge Jesus' men are the worthy favourites for this clash, but they are far from nailed on. Guimaraes are running into a bit of form and will take hope from the fact that they haven't lost to them in the league at home for two seasons. Add in the fact that Benfica have had less than 72 hours since their last match and it makes me believe that their odds of 1.392/5 are just too short and have to be opposed. That's why, at the prices, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Benfica v Guimaraes @ 1.392/5 

This match is available on Betfair Live Video at 20:30

Wagered: 75 pts
Returned: 71.30 pts
P/L – 3.70 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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The Big Match Tactical View: Chelsea v Benfica

Champions League / Michael Cox / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Benfica right-back Maxi Pereira might be a decent bet for a booking

"Nicolas Gaitan seemed fairly quiet in the first leg, yet still created seven chances, four more than any other player."

The first leg saw Chelsea snatch a crucial away goal, and now Benfica have to score at Stamford Bridge. Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle.

Chelsea v Benfica, Wednesday 7:45, ITV1.

Match odds: Chelsea [1.77], Benfica [5.5], The Draw [3.9]

Despite the balance of the tie having shifted towards Chelsea, it's difficult to see how the two teams will line-up particularly differently to at the Estadio Da Luz. There are slight doubts over the fitness of a centre-back on either side - David Luiz for Chelsea, and also Jardel, the man who effectively replaced Luiz at Benfica. Aside from that, don't expect any major surprises.

The onus is on Jorge Jesus to get Benfica back into this tie - they must score to prevent elimination. In recent years in Europe, Jesus has often preferred a more cautious approach away from home, with playmaker Pablo Aimar dropping to the bench, and an additional holding midfielder coming into the side. But that was generally when Aimar played at the tip of the diamond behind a front two - now he's fielded behind just one forward, Oscar Cardozo, and I expect that to continue here.

Another option would be to play another striker like Bruno Rodrigo from the start, with Aimar deeper (or on the bench) - but this is probably too offensive, and Benfica will look to get a grip in midfield in the early stages. Rodrigo will probably be introduced around the 70 minute mark if Benfica need a goal, with Aimar (substituted in all six of his Champions League starts this season) likely to give way.

Roberto Di Matteo went with a defensive-minded midfield trio of Raul Meireles, Jon Obi Mikel and Ramires in the first game (no Frank Lampard) - and despite being the home side here, I expect another cautious selection. One difference might be the positioning of Ramires - he's been used as a right-of-centre shuttling midfielder for Chelsea until now, but Di Matteo has often favoured him out on the flank, so don't be surprised to see him out on the right wing instead. A position on the left, to prevent his old teammate Maxi Pereira getting forward from full-back, is not impossible - though that would mean moving Juan Mata. He can play in the centre, of course, but Di Matteo probably wants to be more cautious in that zone.

Mata will probably start out on the left and drift inside, and there's a decent chance that Maxi Pereira will stick too tight and be booked tonight. He's collected 17 cards for club and country this season, and I'll back him to pick up another here, at [3.5].

But this game is about how Benfica can get back into the tie, and there are probably three men Chelsea have to watch, in different ways. Axel Witsel competed 49 passes in the first leg, more than any other player, and Chelsea have to prevent him getting too much time on the ball. Instructing someone like Meireles or Ramires to get tight to him would make sense.

The second threat is Nicolas Gaitan, who seemed fairly quiet in the first leg, yet still created seven chances, four more than any other player. He and Bruno Cesar will have license to switch flanks, and Gaitan is quite clever with how he drifts into deep positions on the flanks to provide crosses. Paolo Ferreira, more comfortable coming up the pitch than Branislav Ivanovic, might be a decent option at right-back.

The third dangerman is Cardozo, who had a staggering eight shots in the first match. He'll simply put himself slightly past the penalty spot when the ball is wide, and despite Luiz's good performance in the first leg, Cardozo will probably look to test him in the air again.

But this might be a reasonably narrow game - Benfica play with something approaching a midfield diamond rather than a flat four, while Chelsea's potential wide players - Juan Mata, Ramires, Daniel Sturridge - are unlikely to force many corners. Therefore, backing 9 or less corners at [2.6] might be a decent option.

Recommended bets:
Maxi Pereira to be shown a card at [3.5]
9 or less corners at [2.6]

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Against All Odds: Chelsea's tough test against lethal Benfica

Against All Odds / Paul Robinson / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Oscar Cardozo is one of Benfica's attacking threats...

"With the likes of Oscar Cardozo, Bruno Cesar and Fabian Gaitan at their disposal, the Portugese side can be lethal when going forward... "

Chelsea take on Benfica in the second leg of their Champions League quarter final this evening and hold a 1-0 lead from the game in Portugal. With only a draw required to go through, Paul Robinson thinks that their win odds of [1.78] are a bit too short.

Chelsea have been revitalised since Roberto Di Matteo took over in March and have lost just the one match under his management. I wouldn't say it was so much his own greatness that has caused this change, more likely that the players prefer him to Andre Villas Boas and have decided to give 100 percent. There was no better proof of that than in the 4-1 win over Napoli in the last round and then the fantastic 1-0 defeat of Benfica in Portugal a fortnight ago.

In truth, Chelsea were fortunate to win the first leg, with the hosts dominating most of the relevant stats and the Blues will have to play better tonight if they want to set up a semi-final against Barcelona. They will also have to defend much better than they did on Saturday at Villa Park where they conceded two sloppy goals and nearly threw away the three points. Di Matteo does have an almost fully fit squad to choose from but my nagging doubt about them getting the win here is that a draw is good enough and Benfica have absolutely nothing to lose.

Benfica come into this one on the back of a major victory over Braga in their domestic league and the 90th minute winner from Bruno Cesar could well end up winning them the title. Jorge Jesus has got his side playing some great stuff at times this season and they dominated Manchester United home and away in the group phase of this competition. The Eagles weren't at their best in the first leg at Estádio da Luz, but they didn't deserve to lose and are more than capable of winning in London tonight.

Benfica have lost just the once on the road in Europe this season but they have scored at least one goal in every match and twice in their last three on the trot. With the likes of Oscar Cardozo, Bruno Cesar and Fabian Gaitan at their disposal, the Portugese side can be lethal when going forward and I fully expect them to give John Terry and co are troublesome evening.

The English press have been talking as if Chelsea are home and hosed in this one, but that's premature. Benfica are a top side and Chelsea are still below their form of recent seasons, despite being on a good. Taking into account the fact that they don't even have to win to go through, odds-on seems pretty skinny and I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Chelsea against Benfica @ [1.78]

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Benfica v Chelsea: Goals set to light up the Lisbon night

Champions League / James Eastham / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Didier Drogba has been in excellent form in the tournament

"Benfica have scored in 16 of their last 17 European games excluding qualifiers, while Chelsea have scored in nine successive games, their best run in European history."

James Eastham expects an entertaining encounter in Portugal on Tuesday evening.

Benfica v Chelsea, 19:45 GMT, Sky Sports 2, Match Odds: Benfica [2.44], Chelsea [3.3], The Draw [3.35].

Having overcome Napoli against all odds in the second leg of their last 16 clash Chelsea will travel to Lisbon to face Benfica this week believing they can make it to the last four for the first time since 2009.

The market certainly think so. Chelsea go into the tie as [1.58] favourites to qualify, with Benfica [2.68]. But to get anything out of this week's game, Chelsea will need to improve on their away record of W0-D2-L3 in their last five Champions League away matches. Those problems on the road, plus Benfica's outstanding record of just one defeat in their last eight home games against English opposition, suggest Chelsea's price of [3.3] to win on Tuesday night is justified.

Benfica at [2.44] and the draw at [3.35] look the smart picks in the match market, but goals are a stronger bet on this game. As Opta stats reveal, Benfica have scored in 16 of their last 17 European games excluding qualifiers, while Chelsea have scored in nine successive games, their best run in European history. In each of their previous six encounters against Portuguese opposition (all FC Porto), Chelsea scored at least once.

The last round also points towards goals: Benfica lost 3-2 at Zenit St Petersburg, while Chelsea's 90-minute scorelines against Napoli were 3-1 defeat (away) and 3-1 win (home).

The selections worth looking at are 'Yes' in the Both Teams to Score? market at [1.91]. Over 2.5 goals at [2.3] and 3.5 Goals at [4.3].

Finally, if you're looking for a player to score those goals, Didier Drogba is your man. The Ivory Coast international has scored four goals in Chelsea's last four Champions League matches. He'll be available to score any time at around [3.3].

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.3]
Other Recommended Bets: 'Yes' in Both Teams to Score? market @ [1.91]; Didier Drogba in 'To Score' market @ [3.3].

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Opta Stats: Real Madrid to run riot as Chelsea toil in Benfica

Champions League / Richard / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

After two draws, Real got back to winning ways against Sociedad

"The Portuguese side have not failed to score at home since November 2009."

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APOEL v Real Madrid

The Cypriot side have netted just one goal in their last four games in the competition
And they are having similar problems in domestic football, having scored just twice in their previous three home matches. APOEL were held to a goalless draw by Omonia Nicosia as recently as Friday. Real Madrid meanwhile have only conceded three goals in their last eight away games in the Champions League.

Jose Mourinho's side have scored 24 goals in their eight games in the Champions League this season; an average of three a game
Real Madrid have netted at least three in four of their previous six fixtures in all competitions, scoring four or more on three occasions. And though APOEL have kept four successive clean sheets at home in domestic football, it's an entirely different story in Europe. In only two of eight Champions League matches this season have the Cypriots prevented their opponents from scoring.

Benfica v Chelsea

The Blues have scored in nine successive European matches for the first time in their history (excl. qualifiers)
Similarly, Benfica have found the net in all but one of their previous 17 matches in European competition (excl. qualifiers). In fact, the Portuguese side have not failed to score at home since November 2009. And prior to their goalless draw with Tottenham, Chelsea had netted in each of their previous five clashes in all competitions.

No side has scored a higher proportion of their goals in the first half of Champions League games this season than Benfica (67%)
There have been a total of six goals scored before the interval in the previous two domestic fixtures at the Estadio da Luz. Chelsea have scored a first-half goal in five of their eight Champions League fixtures, including in both legs against Napoli.

Recommended Bets:
Real Madrid to win to nil v APOEL @ [2.06]
Real Madrid to score three or more v APOEL @ [2.02]
Both teams to score in Benfica v Chelsea @ [1.91]
Over 1.5 goals in the first half in Benfica v Chelsea @ [3.4]

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Opta Stats: Zenit St Petersburg v Benfica

Champions League / Michael Lintorn / 13 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

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Europa League Betting: PSV v Benfica

Europa League / Richard Aikman / 13 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Javier Saviola (left) was one of PSV's chief tormentors in the first leg

"It is not so much that Benfica are in good form - they suffered their second successive 2-1 defeat in the league at the weekend and have managed only one away win in Europe this season at struggling Stuttgart- as the fact that PSV ([2.44]) are quite poor."

Benfica are near certainties to make the semis after a fine 4-1 win in the first leg, PSV simply not looking like they have the firepower to find their way back into it. A draw looks the best bet for the second leg, says Richard Aikman.

Benfica ([3.0]) have a foot in the semi-finals after a convincing 4-1 first-leg success and with no real pressure on them to win again, or expectations of a miraculous 3-0 win (available at [32.0]) for PSV) the best we can hope for is an open contest in Eindhoven.

Fuelled by the frustration of losing the Portuguese title at home to Porto days earlier, the Eagles simply swept aside the defensively abject visitors, who were indebted to Andreas Isaksson and the woodwork for keeping the score down to a mere four in Lisbon. Benfica's Argentinian trio of Pablo Aimar, Eduardo Salvio (who scored either side of half-time) and Javier Saviola, in added time, got the goals that rendered Zakaria Labyad's effort - and the outcome of the tie - academic.

It is not so much that Benfica are in good form - they suffered their second successive 2-1 defeat in the league at the weekend and have managed only one away win in Europe this season at struggling Stuttgart- as the fact that PSV ([2.44]) are quite poor. Though unbeaten at home in Europe this campaign, Fred Rutten's side have drawn three of those five matches (two 0-0, the other 1-1). In the league they have drawn another three of their last six matches, a last-gasp goal by Ola Toivonen earning a 2-2 draw against Herenveen.

PSV are not firing on all cylinders just now and, as Benfica are effectively already through, an honourable draw has to be the way to go here, with the half-time/full time price of Benfica/Draw also worth considering at [16].

Recommended bet: Back the draw @ [3.6]; back HT/FT Benfica/Draw @ [16}

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