Benfica v Chelsea: Goals set to light up the Lisbon night

Champions League / James Eastham / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Didier Drogba has been in excellent form in the tournament

"Benfica have scored in 16 of their last 17 European games excluding qualifiers, while Chelsea have scored in nine successive games, their best run in European history."

James Eastham expects an entertaining encounter in Portugal on Tuesday evening.

Benfica v Chelsea, 19:45 GMT, Sky Sports 2, Match Odds: Benfica [2.44], Chelsea [3.3], The Draw [3.35].

Having overcome Napoli against all odds in the second leg of their last 16 clash Chelsea will travel to Lisbon to face Benfica this week believing they can make it to the last four for the first time since 2009.

The market certainly think so. Chelsea go into the tie as [1.58] favourites to qualify, with Benfica [2.68]. But to get anything out of this week's game, Chelsea will need to improve on their away record of W0-D2-L3 in their last five Champions League away matches. Those problems on the road, plus Benfica's outstanding record of just one defeat in their last eight home games against English opposition, suggest Chelsea's price of [3.3] to win on Tuesday night is justified.

Benfica at [2.44] and the draw at [3.35] look the smart picks in the match market, but goals are a stronger bet on this game. As Opta stats reveal, Benfica have scored in 16 of their last 17 European games excluding qualifiers, while Chelsea have scored in nine successive games, their best run in European history. In each of their previous six encounters against Portuguese opposition (all FC Porto), Chelsea scored at least once.

The last round also points towards goals: Benfica lost 3-2 at Zenit St Petersburg, while Chelsea's 90-minute scorelines against Napoli were 3-1 defeat (away) and 3-1 win (home).

The selections worth looking at are 'Yes' in the Both Teams to Score? market at [1.91]. Over 2.5 goals at [2.3] and 3.5 Goals at [4.3].

Finally, if you're looking for a player to score those goals, Didier Drogba is your man. The Ivory Coast international has scored four goals in Chelsea's last four Champions League matches. He'll be available to score any time at around [3.3].

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.3]
Other Recommended Bets: 'Yes' in Both Teams to Score? market @ [1.91]; Didier Drogba in 'To Score' market @ [3.3].

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Against All Odds: Gotta be goals when Lisbon meet City

Against All Odds / Paul Robinson / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will you bet Against All Odds tonight?

"There is just too much attacking prowess on show for under 2.5 goals to be trading at [1.93]."

Sporting Lisbon host Manchester City this evening in the first leg of a last 16 clash in the Europa League. It is expected to be a tight affair but Paul Robinson believes that with the amount of attacking talent on display, both keepers will be kept busy.

Bologna held Juventus to a 1-1 draw last night which took us to three successful odds-on lays out of three for the week and a guaranteed profit for those who bet to a level stake.

Sporting Lisbon are fourth in Portugal's Primeira Liga and are having a somewhat disappointing campaign domestically. Eleven points adrift of third placed Braga, Ricardo Sa Pinto's men are likely to finish below last season's rank and have no chance of qualifying for the Champions League. Goals have been the issue and, although 31 scored in 21 games isn't bad, aside from the top few clubs, the league is pretty weak and they need to score more than that if they want to challenge for the title. The Lions have been showing slightly better form in Europe though, especially at Estádio José Alvalade where they have won every single match and scored twice in every game bar one.

Manchester City. Top of the English Premiership and finally finding their feet in Europe with a 6-1 demolition of Porto in the last round. That could be the turning point for Roberto Mancini's side in their quest for success on the continent. Before that, they'd struggled, especially away from home. Both of their legs against Porto went over 2.5 goals and with the likes of Sergio Aguero, Mario Balotelli and Edin Dzeko in the forward line, it is almost a given that they will breach Sporting's tight defence. Yaya Toure is suspended but City have more than enough cover and if anything, it will only mean that they are more likely to concede, which would of course be great for us.

The statistics do point to a low scoring affair, but there is just too much attacking prowess on show for under 2.5 goals to be trading at [1.93]. I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay under 2.5 goals in Sporting Lisbon v Manchester City @ [1.93]

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