The Big Match Tactical View: Manchester City v Manchester United

"Blind has been booked twice in six starts in a United shirt, and this is his biggest test so far."

Back Daley Blind to be shown a card at 4.216/5

Manchester City are odds-on favourites despite being winless in three matches, and potentially without key players through injury. Michael Cox considers how Manuel Pellegrini might adjust, while Alan Thompson has the betting lowdown...

Manchester City v Manchester United
Sunday, 13:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Match Odds: Manchester City 1.9520/21, Manchester United 4.67/2, The Draw 3.814/5.

Manchester City are unquestionably favourites for Sunday's Manchester derby, but following a poor run of form, confidence at the Etihad is in short supply - and Manchester United are coming into this fixture with their tails up.

The Manchester derby is a particularly intriguing fixture. Consider the balance of power in the long-term, medium-term and short-term, and you get very different answers. While United have undoubtedly been the strongest team over the last decade, and City superior over the past year, considering the last month - or even week - is a lot trickier.

United still haven't entirely clicked under Louis van Gaal, but they're unbeaten in four matches, whereas City haven't won in their last three. This game might be closer than previously anticipated.

City are also being troubled by injuries. David Silva is definitely out with a knee problem, while Yaya Toure is rated as doubtful. Silva brings the creativity and incision to City, while Toure brings power to City's side. Without these two, the Citizens are a much weaker attacking force.

Manuel Pellegrini's team selection, therefore, is highly dependent upon the fitness of Toure, and it could even define his formation. Pellegrini has increasingly played Silva behind Sergio Aguero in a 4-2-3-1 for big matches, but he could play a 4-4-2 with Edin Dzeko alongside Aguero here, or put Toure behind the main striker.

Fernando and Fernandinho would be the midfield partnership without Toure, with the returning Samir Nasri on the left and James Milner on the right. It's a lot boxier than a potential 4-2-3-1 featuring Silva and Toure in central positions.

There's less of a question mark about Van Gaal's system. Wayne Rooney is suspended and Radamel Falcao still injured, so it seems unlikely United will revert to a midfield diamond, and the 4-1-4-1 proved reasonably effective against Chelsea last weekend.

However, don't rule out a couple of changes - Adnan Januzaj could be dropped with Ander Herrera returning, perhaps meaning Juan Mata being shifted out to the flank. 

The most interesting zone, however, is in front of the Manchester United back four. This is where Daley Blind will be stationed, and this is arguably his first real test in a United shirt. Against Chelsea last weekend, he was up against Oscar, a fine playmaker - but a player who suits Blind's skillset, providing a technical and tactical test.

This time around, Blind could be faced with multiple players coming inside into his zone - it's possible, for example, that Nasri will be drifting in from the left, Aguero dropping deep, and Toure storming forward. Toure, in particular, would be a huge challenge for Blind, who isn't the most physically imposing player. Blind has been booked twice in six starts in a United shirt, and I'll back him to be shown another card at 4.216/5.

He'll depend upon good support from his midfield colleagues, particularly Marouane Fellaini, who provides strength and height against Toure. Expect United to be forced back into their own half for long periods, and their best attacks might come on the break - Angel Di Maria was subdued against Chelsea, but remains their greatest threat.

Robin van Persie, quiet in recent weeks, must also be more involved this time around, and his battle against Vincent Kompany should be particularly interesting.

This seems like another game for Aguero, though. Manchester United's centre-backs continue to look nervous, and playing relatively high up the pitch too - which plays into Aguero's hands, because of his sheer speed. The Argentine has opened the scoring in four of his nine starts so far this season, and I'll back him to score another opener here, at 5.69/2.

Recommended Bets
Back Daley Blind to be shown a card at 4.216/5
Back Sergio Aguero as first goalscorer at 5.69/2

Without a victory in their last three starts in all competitions Manchester City head into this weekend’s derby in a must win situation. City have already dropped as many points at home as they did in the entire 2013-14 Premier League season and trail Chelsea by six points already.

While the Red Devils certainly made progress against Chelsea last week it doesn’t disguise the fact that they have still failed to win any of their last six Premier League away days. United have kept just two clean sheets this season, against Queens Park Rangers and Burnley, the two clubs currently propping up the Premier League.

I can see this game producing a few goals again with City really needing to win and United offering quality and a threat going forward. A look at the head-to-head’s shows there have also been plenty of goals to enjoy in the Manchester derbies recently. Both teams have scored in five of the last seven meetings with City scoring at least twice in five of them.

I think City will get back to winning ways but priced around 2.0 they are short enough. As I am expecting an entertaining encounter and I will take a chance on backing City to win 2-1 @ 10 and 3-1 @ 16.

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The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Everton

"Arsenal have conceded just two goals in nine domestic home games"
Back an Arsenal clean sheet at 2.915/8

Michael Cox and Alan Thompson preview the intriguing Saturday afternoon FA Cup showdown between two sides desperate to end their ongoing trophy droughts...

Arsenal v Everton
Saturday 12:45, ITV1.
Match Odds: Arsenal 1.875/6, Everton 5.24/1, The Draw 3.711/4.

Following Arsenal's demoralising defeat at Stoke City last week, and their probable elimination from the European Cup this coming Tuesday against Bayern Munich, the FA Cup represents the Gunners' best chance of success this season. Everton are a dangerous opponent, but having already overcome Tottenham and Liverpool at the Emirates on their way to this Sixth Round stage, Arsener Wenger's side should be confident of another good result.

Wenger's team selection is unpredictable here, particularly in attacking positions. Ahead of the second leg against Bayern, it's not impossible that Wenger will rest a couple of players in preparation for that game - while they're 2-0 down, they've made impressive (if futile) second leg comebacks against Milan and Bayern in the past two seasons, and Wenger's major ambition remains a European Cup victory. However unlikely progression to the quarter-final in that competition may be, Wenger will have one eye on Tuesday night.

However, it's difficult to work out Arsenal's first-choice XI at the moment anyway. Mesut Ozil was left out of the squad for the win against Sunderland because of a slight injury, then was only on the bench at Stoke. Lukas Podolski has been in and out of the side, Santi Cazorla not quite at his best, Tomas Rosicky can't play every game, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain still feels like a bonus rather than a regular

A trio of Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ozil and Cazorla is most likely, but don't rule out a surprise selection - perhaps even Serge Gnabry.

Martinez has generally used the FA Cup to play a couple of outsiders, and while the Spaniard is gunning for a second consecutive success in this competition, it's worth remembering he only truly took the FA Cup seriously with Wigan at this stage last year - coincidentally, with a win at Everton.

He's likely to rest first-choice goalkeeper Tim Howard and play Joel Robles instead - he conceded four on his last visit to the Emirates. Ross Barkley has been left out recently but will probably start against a side he's previously played well against, while Romelu Lukaku should return to the starting line-up, having made an instant impact as a substitute at West Ham last week, following a month-long absence. John Stones will continue if Phil Jagielka, as expected, misses out through injury.

Arsenal must find the right balance between midfield dominance, and getting men up in support of Olivier Giroud. Everton's previous performance at the Emirates, a 1-1 draw, was extremely impressive - they pressed high up the pitch and dominated possession inside the Arsenal half. Wenger will be keen to play as many 'passers' as possible to guard against this, but his side's best attacking moves in recent weeks have come when midfield runners have broken beyond the striker.

Arsenal lack genuine pace in behind the opposition without Theo Walcott, and therefore Everton might feel content to defend high up the pitch, pushing Arsenal away from their goal.

Everton will attempt to get the ball forward quickly to Lukaku, assuming he starts upfront - if not, expect Steven Naismith to work the channels more, and make interesting runs in behind the defence. Arsenal have a nice balance between Laurent Koscielny's pace and Per Mertesacker's positional qualities, however, and should be able to cope with the Belgian alone.

The problem will come from deeper, with right-sided Kevin Mirallas charging in behind, Steven Pienaar drifting inside and Barkley collecting the ball between the lines. Barkley varies his position excellently and find space between the lines and will cause ex-Everton midfield Mikel Arteta serious difficulties. He was twice superb in this fixture during 2013, and will be a goalscoring threat.

In the sides' previous meeting, a 1-1 draw, Everton pushed their full-backs extremely high up the pitch, with James McCarthy and Gareth Barry remaining very deep to form a defensive 'square' with the centre-backs, guarding against counter-attacks. Arsenal's wide midfielders must track back and protect their full-backs, or else Arsenal will become overloaded down the wings.

Arsenal's defensive record in domestic games at the Emirates has been excellent, however. Since Gerard Deolofeu's excellent equaliser in this fixture three months ago, Arsenal have conceded just two goals in nine domestic home games: a penalty from Steven Gerrard and a fine long-range strike from Sunderland's Emanuele Giaccherini. I'll back another Arsenal clean sheet at 2.915/8, but it's difficult to judge their level of attacking threat with an uncertain midfield selection.

Recommended Bet
Back an Arsenal clean sheet at 2.915/8

When the Gunners have played at home against sides in the top half of the league this season, they are undefeated (W3:D3), conceding only one goal though that did come against Everton in a 1-1 draw. All six games produced an under 2.5 goal result. In their last six home games they have scored 10 and conceded only once (Sunderland 4-1), and their only home league defeat remains the opening day shocker 1-3 against Aston Villa. Arsenal have made the most of home advantage in the FA Cup this season, eliminating Spurs (2-0), Coventry (4-0) and Everton’s neighbours Liverpool (2-1) in the 5th round.

Everton haven’t managed to beat any of the sides above them in the league thus far and from their five attempts they have scored twice while conceding 10. Their current away form doesn’t inspire much confidence either, no wins on the road in 2014 (five games). A boost for Everton will be the return of Romelu Lukaku, who got the only goal of the game last week, coming off the bench to hit the winner against West Ham.

March is season-defining for Arsenal - after this game they face Spurs in the league then Chelsea away, followed by Man City at the Emirates. In between the London derbies, they have to go to the Allianz Arena with a first leg 2-0 deficit to try and overcome. For me the FA Cup is their only realistic chance of a long overdue trophy and therefore I will be backing them to win this by dutching 2-0 @ 10 and 2-1 @ 9.6 giving approx dutched odds of 5.

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The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Stoke

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The Big Match Tactical View: Tottenham v Everton

The absence of naturally pacey, direct players will harm Tottenham's attacking
Lay Spurs at 2.226/5

With Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon both unavailable, Michael Cox thinks Spurs will struggle for width...

Tottenham v Everton, Sunday 2:05, ESPN.

Match Odds: Tottenham 2.226/5, Everton 3.711/4, The Draw 3.55/2

Everton's trip to White Hart Lane is a fantastic opportunity for Everton - and in particular, David Moyes - to defy their critics, and put themselves firmly in the race for a Champions League slot.

A persistent criticism of Moyes is his defensive strategy away from home. Everton have the third-best home record in the Premier League, collecting 2.06 points per game - but that figure falls to just 1.29 on their travels. A victory here would see Everton move three points behind Tottenham, with a game in hand - although that contest is another tricky trip down to North London, against Arsenal.

Both sides have significant absences for this clash. Moyes is without both Marouane Fellaini and Steven Pienaar for the second consecutive match - with Kevin Mirallas also a doubt - but Andre Villas-Boas has a more serious problems. Jermain Defoe, Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon are all unavailable, which creates a real problem for the Portuguese coach.

The issue is not necessarily the quality of replacements - Emmanuel Adebayor, Lewis Holtby, Clint Dempsey and Gylfi Sigurdsson is a decent attacking quartet - but the absence of naturally pacey, direct players. Villas-Boas' Spurs are a possession-based side, but are also intent on playing quick, 'vertical' football, as Villas-Boas puts it, breaking quickly before the opposition defence is able to organise itself into a solid, deep position. Bale, Lennon and Defoe are amongst the players that epitomise that approach best.

Bale has often wandered inside from his traditional role on the left flank this season, but Lennon has reliably provided width on the right. Without that duo, Spurs have an alarming lack of natural wide men - Holtby, Dempsey and Sigurdsson all prefer being deployed centrally, and might crowd the centre of the pitch.

Therefore, Tottenham must look for width and directness from elsewhere. The role of the full-backs will be key - both Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Kyle Walker must motor forward constantly to stretch the play - but Mousa Dembele is also important. Despite playing as a central midfielder, he's Spurs' best hope of an attacking player offering dribbling and forward running, and the Belgian must ensure his side's attacks flow quickly.

Moyes remains a very reactive manager, and will be fully aware of how Spurs' absences will affect Villas-Boas' gameplan. Expect to see Everton defending even narrower than usual, and Moyes will hope Tottenham's attack-minded full-backs leave space for Everton to break into. Mirallas would be an extremely useful player in that situation, so his fitness is key to Everton's attacking chances.

In Fellaini's continued absence, there's a good chance Moyes will play  two strikers - as he did in the 1-0 home win over Stoke City last week. Nikica Jelavic isn't in good form, but is likely to spearhead the side with Victor Anichebe playing behind him, and told to drop back into midfield without the ball. Anichebe, Mirallas and Coleman will be crucial on the break, while Jelavic might find himself playing as a functional target man, trying to bring others into play rather than being a significant goal threat himself.

Everton must attack here - Moyes would usually be happy with a point in this fixture, but to continue his challenge for a Champions League slot, an away win is vital. With Spurs tired after a draining Europa League draw with Basel on Thursday and missing key players for their usual gameplan, Everton should have a decent chance of a result, so I'll lay Spurs at 2.226/5.

There's also a decent chance of both sides scoring - that's happened in five of Spurs' last six matches, and in the vast majority of Everton's away fixtures, too. 1.855/6 is a good price to back in that market.

Recommended bets:
Lay Spurs at 2.226/5
Back Both Teams To Score at 1.855/6

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The Big Match Tactical View: West Brom v Tottenham

Spurs have recorded three successive draws in the league
Back the draw at 3.55/2

Michael Cox considers Steve Clarke and Andre Villas-Boas' tactical options ahead of Sunday's match.

West Brom v Tottenham, Sunday 1:30, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: West Brom 3.7511/4, Tottenham 2.26/5, The Draw 3.55/2.

A meeting between two former Jose Mourinho protégés, and two fine tacticians with opposing approaches. Steve Clarke has instructed his sides to be defensive-minded and reactive this season, while Andre Villas-Boas prefers a more adventurous, attacking game.

The general shape of the match is easy to predict - a 4-2-3-1 versus 4-2-3-1, with Tottenham dominating possession, and West Brom defending in two banks of four before counter-attacking quickly. Both coaches, however, have some important selection decisions to make.

Clarke should have Youssouf Mulumbu available following Congo's elimination from the Africa Cup of Nations, but it remains to be seen whether he'll be considered fit to start this match - he'll be tired following his exertions in South Africa, and such a sudden climate change can also have negative consequences upon a player's fitness. Still, his relationship with Claudio Yacob was one of the primary reasons for the Baggies' strong start to the campaign, and Clarke will be keen for Mulumbu to return so Chris Brunt can return to his favoured position, out wide.

The other wide role is up for grabs - Zoltan Gera is out for the season, a great shame considering some of his performances this season, while Peter Odemwingie won't take part after his amusing deadline day activities. Instead, Jerome Thomas is an option, but Clarke might go for the more defensive-minded Graham Dorrans from the start, before opening up later on. Upfront, Romelu Lukaku has ousted Shane Long to become West Brom's main striker, and will be the primary goalscoring threat.

Villas-Boas must decide whether to give a full debut to new signing Lewis Holtby, or continue with Clint Dempsey in the role behind Jermain Defoe. Villas-Boas would prefer to ease Holtby in gently, but Dempsey hasn't been particularly impressive in recent weeks, and Villas-Boas might learn from the Hugo Lloris-Brad Friedel episode, and simply play his new signing immediately. The man in this role, up against the combination of Mulumbu and Yacob, will be particularly important for Spurs, but Holtby seems better suited to provide both a passing option, and a goalscoring threat.

At the back, Villas-Boas' rotation at centre-back has been frustrating. Against Lukaku, he'll want both strength and pace - Michael Dawson and Jan Vertonghen seems a good bet - but more important is the positioning of the backline. They're likely to play high up the pitch, which means that Lukaku will try to sprint in behind, and might have a running battle with the linesman, as well as Dawson, who is Spurs' slowest defender.

Another key clash is Gareth Bale against Billy Jones - the West Brom right-back has been impressive this season, but sometimes is too keen to attack, and leaves too much space behind him in counter-attacking situations. West Brom need  to offer him support on that side, which is another reason to think Dorrans might get the nod.

Clarke will be particularly keen for James Morrison to find space in the role behind Lukaku. He's excellent at drawing wide into pockets of space near the flanks, creating overloads to manufacture crossing situations. Villas-Boas likes his sides to press in midfield, which can leave the defence - especially the full-backs - exposed. If Morrison takes up clever positions to facilitate quick West Brom attacks, Tottenham will struggle to keep a clean sheet.

A draw looks a decent bet here, but it's worth considering that West Brom have recorded only four draws this season (the second fewest in the Premier League) and Tottenham have picked up just six (joint-fourth fewest). Still, Spurs have drawn their last three Premier League games, while West Brom are in poor form but have performed impressively against top-half sides at home this season. The draw, at 3.55/2, is just about good value.

Recommended bet:
Back the draw at 3.55/2

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The Big Match Tactical View: Juventus v Napoli

The midfield battle featuring Gokhan Inler, Valon Behrami, Claudio Marchisio and Arturo Vidal should be fiery
Back a second-off at 3.412/5

Juventus have a long unbeaten record to protect, while Napoli struggle away from home against the big boys - can Walter Mazzarri's side pull off a shock victory?

Juventus v Napoli, Saturday 5:00, Betfair Live Video.

Match Odds: Juventus 1.794/5, Napoli 5.04/1, The Draw 3.9n/a.

It's impossible to consider Napoli's chances of winning this match without recalling their dreadful record away top 5 clubs in the past couple of seasons - they've collected just two points and conceded 18 goals in those eight games. We also have to bear in mind that Juventus are unbeaten in 46 league games, and are yet to lose at their new stadium.

Yet Juve have recently lost to Napoli - in the Coppa Italia final back in May, when Walter Mazzarri recorded a 2-0 victory over Antonio Conte thanks to an Edinson Cavani penalty and a Marek Hamsik breakaway goal. The subsequent 4-2 Supercoppa debate was followed by Napoli complaints about controversial refereeing decisions - this now feels like a proper rivalry, and with both sides on 19 points from a possible 21 at the top of the table, this is a huge game.

Tactically, it should be fascinating. 3-5-2 is now Juventus' default shape, but Conte originally started using that formation exclusively against other sides who played three at the back - primarily Udinese and Napoli. "All teams who play 3-5-2 cause us problems," admits Mazzarri - so it's difficult to see Conte choosing any other system.

Conte is a big admirer of Christian Maggio, Napoli's right-wing-back, and his decision to change formation last year was partly to get a player tracking him up and down the line. Marcelo Estigarribia wasn't good enough defensively to stop him at the San Paolo, but Paolo De Ceglie did a good job in Turin and he could start ahead of Kwadwo Asamoah here. On the other side, Stephane Lichtsteiner is a better player than Juan Zuniga, and will force the Colombian back towards his own goal.

In the centre of midfield, there should be a frantic two-versus-two clash - Gokhan Inler and Valon Behrami against Claudio Marchisio and Arturo Vidal. All are mobile, combative and feisty - this will be a tremendous battle.

More crucial, however, is the contest between Juvents' deep-lying playmaker Andrea Pirlo and Napoli attacking midfielder Hamsik. The Slovakian successfully nullified Pirlo last season, although at the expense of his own attacking ability - he needs to stop Pirlo playing forward passes, but then storm forward on the break, turning Juve's probable three-versus-two advantage at the back into a more dangerous three-versus-three.

Mazzarri rarely makes surprise selection decisions - a minor change in defence might be on the cards, but that's about it - but Conte's selection upfront is unknown. So far this season he's favoured Sebastian Giovinco behind Mirko Vucinic, but reports from Italy suggest he'll favour a combination of Alessandro Matri and Naples-born Fabio Quagliarella. If I were Conte, I'd go for Matri to hold the ball up and occupy the Napoli centre-backs, then tell Giovinco to float around in the hole just behind, taking advantage of the fact neither Inler nor Behrami are natural holders, and will be drawn higher up into a midfield battle.

The game's star player is Cavani - likely to be fielded upfront with support from Goran Pandev to his right. Cavani has a decent record against Juventus and, will hope Maggio and Zuniga get forward and supply him with crosses.

There have been 24 goals in the last six games between these sides in all competitions, and it's unusual - but right in this case - to see Over 2.5 goals at 1.865/6 in a match between Serie A's top two. Still, I don't see a great deal of value in that market. Instead, I like the look of a sending-off at around 3.613/5, primarily because of the aforementioned midfield battle - but also because of the past refereeing controversies, which will make this a tempestuous encounter.

Recommended bet:
Back a second-off at 3.412/5

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The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Manchester City

Premier League / Michael Cox / 08 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

The battle for possession in the centre of the pitch will be key

"Arsenal need to make sure they're not caught out by City's clever short corners to the edge of the box"

Both Arsenal and Manchester City need a win in the weekend's biggest Premier League game. Michael Cox doesn't expect too many changes in the line-ups.

Arsenal v Manchester City, Sunday 4:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Arsenal [2.44], Man City [3.55], The Draw [3.15].

The last two Arsenal v Manchester City matches at the Emirates have finished 0-0 - but both were played when City had a very different mentality, when they were content with a point in a match like this. Now, with Manchester United likely to have extended their lead to eight points by the time this game kicks off, City really need a win.

Therefore, Roberto Mancini has some big decisions ahead of this match. The biggest question is whether Sergio Aguero is fit to return from injury - if so, he'll start behind the main forward in a 4-2-3-1. If not (which seems more likely), David Silva will probably move inside into that playmaking role. Samir Nasri and James Milner would be a good bet for the flanks, with Mario Balotelli upfront. Despite question marks over the Italian's mentality, Mancini prefers him to Edin Dzeko in big games.

Arsenal's side will probably feature no more than one change from last weekend, despite the defeat to Queens Park Rangers. Aaron Ramsey was poor in an unfamiliar role out on the left, and I think Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain might get a start here instead. Arsene Wenger fielded the youngster in that position at home to Manchester United, and he was arguably the game's key player.

So where will the main battles be? The first issue is possession - Arsenal have more of the ball at home than any side in the league (60.8%), while City enjoy more than any side away (58.3%). Neither are used to the opposition dominating, and I think we'll see a patient midfield battle at the start, while both try to establish superiority.

Arsenal will try to get Tomas Rosicky into space between the lines, but City are generally quite tight in that zone. Instead, a bigger threat might be the rotation of Arsenal's midfield trio - Alex Song has increasingly become a playmaker and moved ahead of Mikel Arteta. Watch for Song's diagonal balls into the space behind Vincent Kompany for Robin van Persie's run.

Another key player - and another likely to combine with van Persie - is Theo Walcott. In a game where the wide players will generally be looking to come inside, I think Walcott could be of real value here by staying wide and high up against his old teammate Gael Clichy. However, as the Frenchman has only picked up four bookings all season (including two in the same match at Chelsea), I'll stay clear of backing him to be shown a card.

At the other end, I think City might try to exploit the space in behind Thomas Vermaelen. The Belgian looks to storm into tackles high up the pitch, and if it's Silva in that deep-lying position, Vermaelen will be drawn too high up from the defence (a mistake he made a couple of times against QPR last week). Balotelli would be the right man to take advantage of that space in the channels.

The second approach will be looking for space between the Arsenal midfield and defence - while Song's attacking contribution this season has been excellent, he and Arteta can neglect their defensive responsibilities, and Arsenal's full-backs don't like being drawn into central positions. I can imagine a Silva coming inside to play a through-ball, and Balotelli running into the ball for a one-on-one.

The corners market is interesting - Arsenal are the favourites, and City will probably look to defend very deep and force Arsenal down the outside. However, in the home game against Manchester United, Arsenal didn't force a single corner, and if Ramsey plays on the left there'll be little chance of him moving towards the byline. That market is very unpredictable, but on the subject of corners, Arsenal need to make sure they're not caught out by City's clever short corners to the edge of the box, something they've triedin recent weeks, particularly from the left.

Instead, I'll look at the number of goals. City's last seven away Premier League games have seen under 2.5 goals, while Arsenal's main threat Robin van Persie hasn't found the net for 350 minutes, something a drought by his standards. Under 2.5 goals at [2.3] gets my backing.

Recommended bet:
Back under 2.5 goals at [2.3]

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The Big Match Tactical View: Chelsea v Benfica

Champions League / Michael Cox / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Benfica right-back Maxi Pereira might be a decent bet for a booking

"Nicolas Gaitan seemed fairly quiet in the first leg, yet still created seven chances, four more than any other player."

The first leg saw Chelsea snatch a crucial away goal, and now Benfica have to score at Stamford Bridge. Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle.

Chelsea v Benfica, Wednesday 7:45, ITV1.

Match odds: Chelsea [1.77], Benfica [5.5], The Draw [3.9]

Despite the balance of the tie having shifted towards Chelsea, it's difficult to see how the two teams will line-up particularly differently to at the Estadio Da Luz. There are slight doubts over the fitness of a centre-back on either side - David Luiz for Chelsea, and also Jardel, the man who effectively replaced Luiz at Benfica. Aside from that, don't expect any major surprises.

The onus is on Jorge Jesus to get Benfica back into this tie - they must score to prevent elimination. In recent years in Europe, Jesus has often preferred a more cautious approach away from home, with playmaker Pablo Aimar dropping to the bench, and an additional holding midfielder coming into the side. But that was generally when Aimar played at the tip of the diamond behind a front two - now he's fielded behind just one forward, Oscar Cardozo, and I expect that to continue here.

Another option would be to play another striker like Bruno Rodrigo from the start, with Aimar deeper (or on the bench) - but this is probably too offensive, and Benfica will look to get a grip in midfield in the early stages. Rodrigo will probably be introduced around the 70 minute mark if Benfica need a goal, with Aimar (substituted in all six of his Champions League starts this season) likely to give way.

Roberto Di Matteo went with a defensive-minded midfield trio of Raul Meireles, Jon Obi Mikel and Ramires in the first game (no Frank Lampard) - and despite being the home side here, I expect another cautious selection. One difference might be the positioning of Ramires - he's been used as a right-of-centre shuttling midfielder for Chelsea until now, but Di Matteo has often favoured him out on the flank, so don't be surprised to see him out on the right wing instead. A position on the left, to prevent his old teammate Maxi Pereira getting forward from full-back, is not impossible - though that would mean moving Juan Mata. He can play in the centre, of course, but Di Matteo probably wants to be more cautious in that zone.

Mata will probably start out on the left and drift inside, and there's a decent chance that Maxi Pereira will stick too tight and be booked tonight. He's collected 17 cards for club and country this season, and I'll back him to pick up another here, at [3.5].

But this game is about how Benfica can get back into the tie, and there are probably three men Chelsea have to watch, in different ways. Axel Witsel competed 49 passes in the first leg, more than any other player, and Chelsea have to prevent him getting too much time on the ball. Instructing someone like Meireles or Ramires to get tight to him would make sense.

The second threat is Nicolas Gaitan, who seemed fairly quiet in the first leg, yet still created seven chances, four more than any other player. He and Bruno Cesar will have license to switch flanks, and Gaitan is quite clever with how he drifts into deep positions on the flanks to provide crosses. Paolo Ferreira, more comfortable coming up the pitch than Branislav Ivanovic, might be a decent option at right-back.

The third dangerman is Cardozo, who had a staggering eight shots in the first match. He'll simply put himself slightly past the penalty spot when the ball is wide, and despite Luiz's good performance in the first leg, Cardozo will probably look to test him in the air again.

But this might be a reasonably narrow game - Benfica play with something approaching a midfield diamond rather than a flat four, while Chelsea's potential wide players - Juan Mata, Ramires, Daniel Sturridge - are unlikely to force many corners. Therefore, backing 9 or less corners at [2.6] might be a decent option.

Recommended bets:
Maxi Pereira to be shown a card at [3.5]
9 or less corners at [2.6]

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The Big Match Tactical View: Athletic Bilbao v Manchester United

Europa League / Michael Cox / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

What does Marcelo Bielsa have planned for the second leg?

"Athletic take a one-goal lead into the second leg, but their approach is unlikely to be more conservative than in Manchester"

If this is anything like as exciting as the first leg, we'll be in for a treat. Michael Cox previews the second meeting between Marcelo Bielsa and Sir Alex Ferguson.

Athletic Bilbao v Manchester United; Thursday 6:00pm, Channel 5.

Match odds: Athletic Bilbao [2.82], Manchester United [2.58], The Draw [3.75].

Manchester United were flattered by their 3-2 defeat to Athletic last week. The Basque side were the better team for long periods, constantly pressing high up the pitch, winning the ball quickly and playing rapid combinations through the Manchester United defence. They could have scored many more.

The starting XI selected by Sir Alex Ferguson that night was ill-equipped to deal with Athletic's energy and passing skills, with the central midfield combination of Ryan Giggs and Phil Jones looking particularly uncomfortable, and lacking in mobility. Things got better when Michael Carrick and Anderson came on in the second half, and Carrick is a decent bet to start in Bilbao, despite the fact that he can struggle against sides that pressure him quickly. Anderson has been ruled out, and might not feature again this season.

What Ferguson really needs there is mobility to compete with the pressing of Marcelo Bielsa's side. Therefore, a rare central midfield role for Park Ji-Sung is not unthinkable after Giggs' struggles in the first leg. At the back, Ferguson said in Wednesday's press conference that Rafael, Rio Ferdinand and Jonny Evans will start, presumably with Patrice Evra at left-back.

Ferguson's major decisions are higher up the pitch. Ashley Young is in good form and should start on the left, and Wayne Rooney is a certainty. But upfront Javier Hernandez struggled in front of goal in the first leg, and Danny Welbeck hasn't scored since January. Athletic's high line means pace is a must, and Hernandez edges out Welbeck in that respect. Welbeck was fielded on the right at the weekend but Antonio Valencia might be a good bet there on his return from injury, especially as he'll defend better against the attack-minded left-back Jon Aurtenetxe.

There are three selection decisions for Bielsa. At the back, the hotheaded Fernando Amorebieta is back from suspension and will probably start as the left-sided centre-back. Bielsa has two choices here - he could move Javi Martinez forward into his more established central midfield role, but Bielsa likes his pace and distribution skills from the back, so Amorebieta could simply replace Mikel San Jose.

There are two injury worries further forward. Fernando Llorente is a doubt, though one would expect him to be risked even if not fully fit. His replacement would be Gaizka Toquero, who is one of the most hard-working, energetic forwards in Spain, but doesn't possess Llorente's aerial power or finishing ability. Toquero would make Athletic better at pressing, but less potent in front of goal.

Oscar De Marcos, the versatile player who generally plays a box-to-box midfield role, is another doubt. His absence could be solved by moving Martinez forward to form a three with Ander Iturraspe and Ander Herrera, or Iker Muniain could come inside from the left.

Athletic take a one-goal lead into the second leg, but their approach is unlikely to be more conservative than in Manchester. Expect Bielsa to instruct his side to press heavily from the start, and establish their superiority with the ball from an early stage. There will be a fierce atmosphere at the legendary San Mames stadium, and I'll back a goal within the first ten minutes, at [4.5].

Athletic will continue to play with a very high defensive line, and for United to compete in midfield, I think they'll have to do the same too, pushing Jonny Evans and Rio Ferdinand up the pitch. With both sides playing this way, it should be fast-paced and scrappy in the midfield, which might force the referee into action more than usual. The booking market is tempting, but a red card is also a strong possibility - with more chance of desperate last-man tackles when strikers try to get in behind the defence, there's every chance someone could be dismissed for denying a clear goalscoring opportunity, though at [4.0] it's not particularly tempting to back.

As far as the corners market goes, Athletic should be strong favourites - they 'won' that statistic 8-3 in the first leg. It looks like you'll be able to back them at odds against, so anything around [2.2] would be a good back here.

Recommended bets:
0-10 minutes in 'First Goal Odds' at [4.5]
Athletic Bilbao in 'Corners Match Bet' at [2.2]

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The Big Match Tactical View: Liverpool v Arsenal

Premier League / Michael Cox / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Theo Walcott has caused Liverpool problems in the past

"Considering that Walcott likes to move infield into an inside-right position, he’ll be licking his lips at the prospect of Jamie Carragher deputising for Daniel Agger"

It's difficult to predict the starting line-ups for this game, but that means a potentially exciting tactical battle, says Michael Cox

Liverpool v Arsenal, Saturday 12:45, Sky Sports 2.

Match odds: Liverpool [2.08], Arsenal [4.0], The Draw [3.6].

The reverse league meeting between these two sides seems an age ago - Samir Nasri was one of Arsenal's better players, Raul Meireles came on for Liverpool to help get the breakthrough, while Emmanuel Frimpong's red card gave Liverpool the initiative. None of those players will be involved this weekend.

This match is a battle between two sides with slightly uncertain levels of confidence. In simple terms both are coming off the back of important wins last weekend - Liverpool in the Carling Cup final, and Arsenal in the North London derby. But dig a little deeper, and you find that Liverpool's performance wasn't particularly impressive, while Arsenal went 2-0 down after being exposed at the back early on. Taking the last few weeks as a barometer, neither are playing as well as would be expected.

Let's consider Arsenal's shape first, since they are the side that keeps more of a consistent formation and starting line-up. They will play their usual 4-3-3 shape, and after the ultimately positive performance against Tottenham, Arsene Wenger will want to keep things roughly the same here, which will mean Theo Walcott on the right and Yossi Benayoun coming inside from the left.

There are significant injury worries, however. Aaron Ramsey and Tomas Rosicky would be battling for the same midfield place, but Ramsey is out while Rosicky faces a late fitness test. If both those two are unavailable, it would probably mean Yossi Benayoun being fielded in the centre, with either Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain or Gervinho wide left - that would significantly alter the shape of the side.

Robin van Persie and Thomas Vermaelen are also slight doubts after their international fixtures in midweek, but both should start.

Kenny Dalglish's teams are more difficult to predict, but I think he'll go for more of a 4-3-3 than a 4-4-2 here, to compete with Arsenal in the centre of midfield. Jay Spearing could get a start with instructions to pick up Arsenal's most attacking midfield, with Steven Gerrard (if fit, or Jordan Henderson if not) and Charlie Adam ahead. Those two didn't deal well with Cardiff's threat between the lines last week, so Dalglish might want that extra holding player to protect the defence.

Upfront, Dirk Kuyt will hope for a start on the right after his goal last weekend, while Stewart Downing also had a good game. Those two could flank Luis Suarez, with Andy Carroll a plan B and Craig Bellamy rested after playing for Wales less than three days previously.

So, after a rough estimate of the starting line-ups, where will the key battles be? One of the more certain clashes is Theo Walcott up against Jose Enrique in Liverpool's left-back zone. In the previous meeting between the two at the Emirates, the Spaniard stopped Walcott very effectively, partly by playing deep, and partly because he was confident at not being significantly slower when forced to turn and run. But his form has dipped slightly in the past few weeks, and with Walcott high on confidence after his two goals against Spurs, he'll be a dangerous option here.

Considering that Walcott likes to move infield into an inside-right position, he'll also be licking his lips at the prospect of Jamie Carragher deputising for Daniel Agger in Liverpool's left-sided centre-back position. With this in mind, Walcott is a decent bet to open the scoring at around [13.0].

The corners market will also be interesting, because of the uncertainty in the identity of wide players. Liverpool have sometimes fielded 'inverted' wingers this season, with the likes of Craig Bellamy and Stewart Downing coming infield onto their stronger foot. If that happens here, I'd question Liverpool's current odds-on price in 'Corners Match Bet', so will lay Liverpool in that market at [1.7].

Recommended bets:
Back Theo Walcott to score first at [13.0]
Lay Liverpool in Corners Match Bet at [1.7]

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The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Tottenham

Premier League / Michael Cox / 25 February 2012 / 1 Comments

This is likely to be a fast-paced midfield battle

"Tottenham might have joy by getting Bale and van der Vaart into pockets of space behind Song and Arteta"

A hugely important North London derby should be a fairly straightforward tactical battle and an exciting game, says Michael Cox.

Arsenal v Tottenham, Sunday 1:30pm, Sky Sports 1.

Match odds: Arsenal 2.64, Tottenham 2.94, The Draw 3.55.

Arsene Wenger has never finished below Tottenham Hotspur in his 15-year spell as Arsenal manager. In fact, with the exception of 2005/06 when Arsenal had their eyes on the Champions League, it's rarely even been an issue. But now, with Tottenham ten points clear and playing terrific football, there's reason to believe the previously unthinkable could finally happen.

Wenger also used to enjoy a superb record in games against Spurs, but Arsenal have now picked up just a single point from the last four North London derbies in the league. A defeat here would complete a truly miserable February for the home side.

Tactically, this should be a fairly simple game. Arsenal have played roughly the same way throughout the season, with the small caveat that quick wide players like Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain play in a different style to ball hoarders like Tomas Rosicky, Yossi Benayoun and the now departed Andrei Arshavin. Wenger probably won't make any surprise selections, though I expect him to feature only one of Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain, and instead play someone like Benayoun on the left to help retain possession and get a grip on the game in midfield.

Similarly, Harry Redknapp's tactics rarely change significantly from game to game, though he did name an unusual 3-4-1-2 system at Stevenage last week. That appeared to be an effort to cram as many centre-backs into the side as possible, and the experiment won't be continued at the Emirates. There is a slight fitness doubt over Emmanuel Adebayor against his former club, however, and Spurs' style of play would change significantly if Jermain Defoe started in his place, though probably less so if Louis Saha was used.

Arsenal's 4-3-3 will compete closely with Tottenham's 4-4-1-1, assuming Rafael van der Vaart plays behind the main striker. There are no clear areas of strength or weakness depending upon the formations, with the midfields evenly balanced and no full-backs looking particularly vulnerable against their likely opponents on the wing. One potential exception is Gareth Bale up against Bacary Sagna, but the Frenchman dealt very well with Bale in this game last season, even as Arsenal fell to a 3-2 defeat.

Instead, I think movement and switching positions will be a key part of this game - and perhaps surprisingly, I think it's Tottenham who are the better side in this respect. Adebayor showed his willingness to work the channels in the win over Newcastle a fortnight ago, and he'll have extra motivation against the club he notoriously scored against in his Manchester City days. Spurs have also experimented with bringing Bale inside from the left flank into more of a central role, while van der Vaart is slightly anarchic with his positioning, but nevertheless difficult to pick up.

Arsenal's main movement comes from the midfield trio tilting, with Alex Song starting as the holding midfielder but often finding himself high up to play through balls. This can mean Arsenal are exposed between the lines, though, and I think Tottenham might have joy by getting Bale and van der Vaart into pockets of space behind Song and Mikel Arteta.

With a bit of fluidity in midfield, we often see midfielders caught out of possession and forced to bring down opponents to prevent quick counter-attacks, and though neither side are particularly dirty, I think we might see a few bookings. Song and Scott Parker are the obvious two here, and as Song has five bookings from his last 15 matches, I'll book him at around [3.5] to be shown a card.

But there should be goals. Both sides want to play good football and have had a free midweek, so should be fresh and ready to press from the first whistle. The last five meetings have seen both sides score, and I'll back over 3.5 goals at [2.9].

Recommended bets:
Alex Song to be shown a card at [3.5]
Over 3.5 goals at [2.9]

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The Big Match Tactical View: Barcelona v Valencia

Spanish Football / Michael Cox / 18 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Pep Guardiola and Unai Emery have great respect for one another, and relish their strategic battles

"Jeremy Mathieu has stormed forward to great effect against Barcelona this season"

The fourth meeting between the sides this season should be yet another interesting battle between two fine tacticians, says Michael Cox.

Barcelona v Valencia, Sunday 20:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Barcelona [1.29], Valencia [12.5], The Draw [6.4].

Barcelona are ten points behind Real Madrid in La Liga, and we now have to consider something new about the side - level of motivation. Never before under Pep Guardiola has there been a question about how much effort Barcelona will put into their league performances, but now the league might be put to one side. After all, they're in the final of the Copa Del Rey, and remain [2.44] favourites for the Champions League.

Guardiola has a lot of respect for Unai Emery, and the tactical battles between the two have been particularly interesting in the last couple of years. In fact, in the past two league fixtures between the clubs at the Nou Camp, Guardiola has been forced into changing things at half time having been out-thought by Emery in the first half.

There is also more recent history between the two coaches - they've already faced each other twice in 2012, in the semi-final of the Copa del Rey. Barcelona came out on top in that two-legged tie, but Valencia caused them significant problems, as they did in the league meeting at the Mestalla, which ended in a 2-2 draw.

In the meetings this season, Guardiola has favoured his 3-4-3 system, rather than the variant of 4-3-3 he's used for the majority of his time in charge of the club. That approach has had mixed success - it dominates the centre of the pitch, but can be vulnerable to quick breaks down the flanks.

Valencia have exploited that weakness very well this season, almost exclusively down the left. There, Unai Emery has long favoured playing two left-backs in tandem against Barca, with Jeremy Mathieu generally lining up ahead of Jordi Alba, with the two switching around at will. That's now a key feature of the Valencia side, and whereas the primary reason for playing it against Guardiola's side was to stop Daniel Alves being such an attacking threat, it also works well in an attacking sense. Mathieu has stormed forward to great effect against Barcelona this season, and I expect him to feature prominently here, especially if Guardiola goes 3-4-3.

But he might not. In the first game between the sides this season he used Alves high up as the right-sided attacker, but he could play at right-back in a four, with Eric Abidal being either a left-back or a left-sided centre-back accordingly. In midfield, Xavi Hernandez will have a late fitness test, while Cesc Fabregas will probably be played in the front three alongside Lionel Messi and Alexis Sanchez.

Emery has a couple of decisions to make. First, how much will Valencia press? Often they've been very energetic at the Nou Camp but tired later on, and with two fewer days' rest after the sides' respective midweek Champions League clashes, this could be a risky strategy.

Second, who should Emery play in the centre of midfield? His 4-2-3-1 means he can play an attack-minded player behind the forward, like Pablo Piatti or Jonas, but here I think he might go for a more cautious approach, and play Ever Banega with David Albelda and Tino Costa behind. Albelda often seems to get into trouble against Barcelona, so I fancy him to be shown a card at [3.0].

The midfield battle will be dominated by the home side - the question is what Barcelona can do in the final third. At times this season the influence of Fabregas has made them a little too direct, and in a match like this I think Guardiola will encourage his side to be more patient with their passing. With that in mind, combined with Valencia's tendency to tire, I'll back Draw/Barcelona in the Half Time / Full time market at [5.0].

Recommended bets:
Albelda to be booked at [3.0]
Draw / Barcelona in Half Time / Full Time at [5.0]

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The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Manchester United

Premier League / Michael Cox / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Aaron Ramsey scored the only goal in this fixture last year, and is available to open the scoring at 29.0

"Counter-attacking is generally the key to United beating Arsenal, and they usually do so better within a 4-3-3 system"

Sir Alex Ferguson has tried various approaches at the Emirates in recent years with various degrees of success. Michael Cox ponders the recent history of the fixture and how that will shape Manchester United's tactics here.

Arsenal v Manchester United, Sunday 16:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match odds: Arsenal 2.98, Man Utd 2.6, The Draw 3.5.

The recent history of tactical battles between Arsenal and Manchester United is fascinating. On one hand, Sir Alex Ferguson seems to have found a winning formula to defeat Arsene Wenger. On the other, he seems to keep moving away from it.

The tried and tested method of beating Arsenal is to sit back, defend deep and narrow knowing that Arsenal rarely cross the ball, before breaking quickly once they have players out of position. It doesn't always work, of course, but Ferguson seemed to be the master of doing it. The Champions League semi-final of 2009 and the league match in early 2010 both finished 3-1 to United, and were characterised by brilliant goals on the break - scored by Cristiano Ronaldo in 2009 and Wayne Rooney in 2010.

Crucial in those moves - and in the performances overall - was the use of a 4-3-3 system. It meant an attacking trio could break at speed - Rooney, Park Ji-Sung and either Ronaldo or Nani combined for both those goals.

But last year Ferguson played 4-4-1-1, and United were poor - passed around in midfield and falling to a 1-0 defeat. Back in the league in 2008 he used a similar system with a rare start in a big game for Dimitar Berbatov, and United lost 2-1. There is more to tactics than formations, of course, but counter-attacking is generally the key to United beating Arsenal, and they usually do so better within a 4-3-3 system.

This season, United have rarely used that system with one striker supported by two wide players - but then, they haven't played many of the big clubs away from home. When they travelled to Anfield to play Liverpool they did switch to a combination of 4-1-4-1 and 4-3-3, with Phil Jones alongside Darren Fletcher and Ryan Giggs in midfield, indicating Ferguson is still happy to play that system in big games.

I think he'll do that here, in order to compete with Arsenal in the centre of the pitch. Phil Jones in midfield makes sense if United are to sit deep, while Michael Carrick and Ryan Giggs will play the passes to prompt counter-attacks, with Anderson and Fletcher unavailable. Paul Scholes is another option, but in this fixture two years ago he was poor, with Ferguson switching him away from a deep-lying midfield position because Arsenal kept bursting past him.

It would also mean putting two wingers high up against Arsenal's full-backs, which is clearly Wenger's side's weak spot, with all four full-backs currently injured. Johan Djourou got sent-off at Fulham when played at right-back, Ignasi Miquel looked uncomfortable last weekend at Swansea on the other side - but Arsenal have no other options - unless Thomas Vermaelen makes a recovery to play at left-back.

The United wingers look a good bet to score, then. Park often plays here, but if Arsenal lack full-backs with quality on the ball, there doesn't seem a good reason to play the winger who specialises in defensive work. Antonio Valencia was excellent last week against Bolton and deserves another start, while Nani would suit a counter-attacking game; the Portuguese winger's United career burst into life with a good display here two years ago.

In terms of value for the first goalscorer, I'm surprised to see Aaron Ramsey available at [29.0]. The Welsh midfielder's form has dipped recently and he has yet to score in the league this campaign, but he got the winner in this fixture last season and looks overpriced here.

Meanwhile, Arsenal have lost their last two league games having gone ahead, whilst United are the masters of the late comeback. The odds for 'Man Utd to win from behind' don't look too promising, but a Arsenal / Man Utd in the Half Time / Full Time market at 28.0 looks good.

Recommended bets:
Aaron Ramsey to score first at [29.0]
Arsenal / Man Utd in Half Time / Full time at [28.0]

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The Big Match Tactical View: Tottenham v Arsenal

Premier League / Michael Cox / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Scott Parker and Emmanuel Adebayor have been impressive for Spurs

"I'm going to back the Togo striker to open the scoring, though - critics say he only plays at his best when he's motivated, but few other games will interest him as much as this one against his old club."

Tactics, team selection, systems and momentum will all play a huge part in the outcome of this match. Lets' make some money from guessing how all these factors will pan out, says Michael Cox.

Tottenham v Arsenal, Sunday 16:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match odds: Tottenham [2.2], Arsenal [3.65], The Draw [3.6].

The second major derby of the Premier League weekend sees Arsenal make the short trip to White Hart Lane. Arsene Wenger once boasted an enviable record against Spurs, but in the last couple of seasons, Harry Redknapp has got the better of him.

The interesting feature of this game - though not necessarily the deciding factor - will be which side has more possession. In recent years, this fixture has seen Arsenal dominating the ball, holding onto it on the edge of the box, but having trouble penetrating the Tottenham box. Spurs have then counter-attacked quickly and scored. On the basis of history, we'd expect something similar.

It might all change this season, however. Why? Well, there are three separate reasons. First, Tottenham have become an extremely good passing side. In the last two Premier League weekends, they've completed more passes than any other side, and they seem to be hoarding the ball more this season, allowing their strikers to become involved in build-up play.

Second, Arsenal's style has also changed slightly - in the other direction. Previously focused upon bringing wide players inside and trying to play through tight spaces in the middle, Wenger now seems to want to play a more vertical game. Theo Walcott and Gervinho offer pace and direct running, and Arsenal might want space to break into.

Third, rarely in the last 15 years have Spurs been in a better position than Arsenal coming into this game - but on the basis of the Premier League so far, they are the better side and odds of [2.2] reflect this - when was the last time Tottenham were so short in this fixture? Therefore, it will be Redknapp's side calling the shots.

How will the two sides try and hold onto the ball? An important factor here will be strikers dropping deep. Robin van Persie does it brilliantly for Arsenal, but it's notable how much his old foe Emmanuel Adebayor has been doing the same so far for Spurs. Jermain Defoe has also become a better all-rounder, though Redknapp may decide to go for just one striker. Either way, I expect defenders to be dragged out of the back and forced to turn quickly, so a yellow card for someone like Per Mertesacker is possible. He's worth backing to be shown a card at around [4.0].

The midfielders are key, however, and Spurs need a good performance in terms of both winning and retaining the ball. The midfield partnership of Scott Parker and Luka Modric has looked good so far, and Parker was particularly impressive against Liverpool, where he denied Charlie Adam time on the ball, and didn't let Liverpool settle in midfield.

For interesting individual battles, look to the flanks. Andre Santos can get caught high up the pitch and can leave too much space in behind, whilst Bacary Sagna hasn't looked as assured as in 2011/12, when he was voted into the PFA Team of the Year. I think Spurs will try and cross the ball a lot for Adebayor, so it's worth considering that they might win lots of corners.

I'm going to back the Togo striker to open the scoring, though - critics say he only plays at his best when he's motivated, but few other games will interest him as much as this one against his old club, and with Arsenal's defeat to Blackburn showing that they're still vulnerable when trying to defend set-pieces, I think [6.0] for Adebayor to open the scoring is good value.

Recommended bets:
Mertesacker to be shown a card at [4.0]
Adebayor to score first at [6.0]

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La Liga Betting: Mourinho's tactical conundrum

Spanish Football / Michael Cox / 25 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Fabio Coentrao's energy and pace is an asset to to Real's midfield but Jose mourinho has concerns in other areas

"In truth, they’re crying out for Nuri Sahin in the centre of the pitch. The Turk was signed from Borussia Dortmund in the summer, essentially to be a more forward-thinking partner for Alonso, whilst also bringing energy and defensive discipline to the role."

By their own incredibly high standards, Real Madrid's start to their La Liga campaign has been an average one and at the heart of their troubles is a failure to pick a system that allows them to break down teams who are too defensive against them, says Michael Cox.

A defeat and a draw in two games for Real Madrid. Far from a disaster - or is it? Real have now dropped as many points this season as Barcelona did up until February 12 last season. The race for the Spanish title is particularly unforgiving, though there are promising early signs that La Liga will be more even than last year.

Having started the season with ten goals in two games, Real's obvious failing against Levante and Racing was their inability to score. Mourinho rotated his side for these two matches and played such different starting XIs that it's difficult to come to any sweeping generalisations, especially given their goalfest in the opening two games, but the side seems to lack creativity. They managed just three shots on target against Levante, and two against Racing.

Particularly noticeable was how slowly Real moved the ball in the centre of the pitch, a huge surprise considering they'd seemingly improved on this area of their game immeasurably when they faced Barca in the European Super Cup. Xabi Alonso has played deep in midfield but his long-range diagonal balls are less effective against sides who defend deep, with their full-backs in defensive positions at all times.

His partners in the past two games have hardly covered themselves in glory either - Sami Khedira got himself sent off against Levante and was blamed for the defeat by Mourinho, whilst Lassana Diarra is simply not the type of midfielder you need to break down opponents. The energy of Fabio Coentrao, used in the centre of midfield in the first two games, suited Real better.

In truth, they're crying out for Nuri Sahin in the centre of the pitch. The Turk was signed from Borussia Dortmund in the summer, essentially to be a more forward-thinking partner for Alonso, whilst also bringing energy and defensive discipline to the role. Real basically need a good technical player who can link Alonso with the front four, and interestingly, this is a position Mourinho has struggled with before. He had Claude Makelele playing deep and Frank Lampard breaking forward at Chelsea, but couldn't decide between Tiago, Alexi Smertin, Jiri Jarosik and Joe Cole to complete his trio in his first season - the signing of Michael Essien solved the problem there. Maybe Sahin will do the same.

The slowness of the passing is harming Mesut Ozil, Real's chief creator and producer of more assists than any other La Liga player in 2010/11. Ozil is talented enough to break down packed defences, but thrives on the break - the slower the ball finds him, the more opportunity for the opposition to get their defence in shape. Similar things can be said of Cristiano Ronaldo, Angel Di Maria and arguably Karim Benzema too - they like to break quickly, and get space in behind.

Pep Guardiola described Real as 'the best counter-attacking side in the world' last season, but the problem with counter-attacking is that you need the opposition to attack first. Scared into parking the bus by Real's array of attacking stars, the rest of La Liga might have wised up and sat back.

What can Mourinho do to change things, aside from waiting on Sahin? In formation terms, he experimented with both a 4-3-3 and a 4-3-1-2 last season, but it's difficult to see how either of these shapes would help Real. He could choose to field Ozil wide in place of Di Maria, in order to play Kaka in the centre of the 4-2-3-1, therefore bringing an extra creator into the side. Kaka and Ozil are possibly too similar, though - and Kaka generally relied on quick attacks at Milan, too. Add in doubts about his lack of pace, and it's hardly a solution.

The midfield is not entirely to blame - the defenders are often slow to bring the ball out from the back, and the answer probably lies in improving the performance of his current XI on the training ground. Mourinho loves to chop and change formations, but the issue with his side concerns what they do on the ball, not how they are positioned.

At [6.0] Real remain a good price to win the Champions League - they should win the group with ease, and their style of football will probably more suited to knock-out competitions than La Liga.

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Big Match Tactical View: Barcelona v Manchester United

Champions League / Michael Cox / 26 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Rooney and Javier Hernandez are in great form

"Iniesta had a great game against United two years ago, and I fancy him for anytime scorer at around [8.4]."

Want to know how Manchester United can stop Barcelona? Michael Cox assesses the likely patterns of play and selection conundrums ahead of Saturday's Champions League final.

A repeat of the 2009 final sees Manchester United heading to Wembley and hoping for a different result. Whilst Barcelona's dominance in that final has been rather overstated in the two years since - only after Barca made it 2-0 were United really outclassed - there is no doubt that Sir Alex Ferguson's men start as underdogs.

Ferguson has a couple of decisions to make going into this match. The first one is simple - a choice at right-back between John O'Shea, Rafael and Fabio da Silva. O'Shea offers the experience and a more solid presence, but his lack of attacking endeavour in 2009 may make Ferguson turn to one of the Brazilian twins.

His second one is more complex. His 'big game' front six has been fairly settled in recent weeks - Ryan Giggs and Michael Carrick in the centre, Antonio Valencia and Park Ji-Sung on the flanks, and Wayne Rooney just off Javier Hernandez upfront. The decision, considering Barcelona's midfield dominance, is whether Ferguson should sacrifice Hernandez for another central midfielder - probably Darren Fletcher, who has returned from a virus to be fit for this game. Hernandez seems a more likely bet - his pace will cause Barcelona's high defensive line problems. And even if they drop deeper to take account of Hernandez's speed, that will simply open up space in the hole for Rooney.

This is all assuming that Ferguson doesn't have a major surprise up his sleeve.
Pep Guardiola's selection is easier. His only problem is at left-back - Eric Abidal might well be fit in time, but if not Carles Puyol will probably play there, with Javier Mascherano again filling in at centre-back. Elsewhere, it's likely to be Barcelona's familiar front six, with Lionel Messi deep in the centre of the pitch.

Messi, of course, is the key player. How can he not be? In 2009, United were flummoxed by his central positioning - he switched places with Samuel Eto'o and Ferguson never really worked out how to deal with it. Eto'o scored the first from the right, Messi bagged the second from the centre. This time around, United know Messi will start in the centre, and Ferguson will be able to plan for Messi's movement. It's unlikely that any specific player will be told to pick him up - United will focus on keeping it tight between the lines, which means that if the midfield press, the defence will have to press too. This could cause problems for United's centre-backs - particularly Nemanja Vidic, a fabulous penalty box defender, but one who looks vulnerable on the turn. I fancy him to be shown a card at [3.0].

United's second task is how to break up Barcelona's passing game. In 2009 they pressed well from the front, dominating the first ten minutes and forcing Pep Guardiola to admit after the game that he was surprised how much they closed down early on. That looks likely to be the strategy again, though the central midfield partnership of Giggs and Carrick might prove to be too immobile against Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta. The latter had a great game against United two years ago, and I fancy him for anytime scorer at around [8.4].

However, perhaps we're all focusing too much upon how United can stop Barca, and not how they can hurt the Spanish champions. United have been in great form going forward in recent weeks, partly because of the return to full fitness of Valencia. He'll be up against Barca's weakest position, left-back, and whoever his opponent is, he'll fancy his chances in one-on-one situations. Getting the ball out quickly to him will be key for United.

Hernandez' pace is another obvious outlet if he starts, whilst Park's clever positioning on the left-hand side can also cause opponents problems. The Korean is perhaps the ultimate 'defensive' winger, but he's shown his worth when it comes to goalscoring over the past year or so, particularly in big games. If Daniel Alves focuses too much on attacking, Park might get in behind.

It's also worth considering the referee in this one - Viktor Kassai likes to keep the game flowing.

The important factor here is not about the balance of play - Barcelona will dominate possession - but about what happens in the final third. United need to counter quickly, or Barca might defeat them convincingly again.

Recommended Bets
Vidic to be shown a card at [3.0]
Iniesta to score anytime at [8.4]

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Big Match Tactical View: Real Madrid v Barcelona

Champions League / Michael Cox / 26 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Madrid stop Messi?

"It’s difficult to refute the idea that Mourinho has won the battle so far."

Things have generally gone in the Special One's favour in his battles against the Barca boss. But could Pepe Guardiola turn it around in the semi-final of the Champions League?

One of the greatest possible match-ups for a European football semi-final; Real Madrid v Barcelona, Jose Mourinho v Pep Guardiola, two legs, one final place up for grabs. We may have seen these teams face-off twice in recent weeks, but this two-legged tie is far, far more important than the league or Copa del Rey matches.

Those matches provided plenty of clues about how this tie will shape up, however, and it's difficult to refute the idea that Mourinho has won the battle so far. In the league game he managed to snatch a point from 1-0 down despite being reduced to ten men, and in the cup final Real started better, weathered the storm in the second half, and then pounced in extra-time.

Interestingly, he used completely different tactics in the two matches. In the League, Real sat relatively deep behind the ball and let Barcelona play, seeking to attack mainly on the break to exploit Barcelona's high line. In the Cup, Real pressed higher up the pitch - they played without a traditional striker, used Cristiano Ronaldo up front, and also pushed Pepe forward ahead of Xabi Alonso in a 4-1-4-1 system, using he and Sami Khedira as aggressive midfield hustlers to get into the faces of Xavi Hernandez, Andres Iniesta and Sergio Busquets.

The danger for Mourinho is that he may have used his joker already, even before the most important battle. Using Pepe as a midfielder and Ronaldo as a forward were moves many expected, but not in the first two games. His other idea may be to use Marcelo as a left-winger with Alvaro Arbeloa at left-back in order to stop the dangerous runs of Daniel Alves from right-back - but that might be a little too defensive for the first leg at the Bernabeu.

Of course, in these Guardola v Mourinho contests (and this game is the eighth in the last two seasons between the two, with the ninth coming next week) we're used to going into the games thinking that the ball is in Mourinho's court. We usually know how Guardiola will set his side out, and it's up to Mourinho to find the tactics to stop Barca. That might not be the case here, however. Barcelona looked rather impotent in the cup final against Real - with Xavi and Iniesta denied time on the ball, Messi had to drop deeper and deeper to try and create, which meant Barcelona's main goal threat was further away from the Real Madrid goal.

David Villa has been desperately out of form - though he did score at the weekend - and Pedro Rodriguez has been rushed back, and isn't 100% fit. It's not unthinkable that Guardiola could vary his tactics, by dropping one of Villa or Pedro in order to play an extra man in midfield - Javier Mascherano, perhaps - and push Andres Iniesta into the front three. This would mean Iniesta could drop back and provide some creativity, leaving Messi able to play higher up the pitch. Aside from that, expect Guardiola's usual side, as Carles Puyol looks like being fit in time.

Mourinho has been hampered by the loss of Sami Khedira, who will miss both these matches. The return of Lassana Diarra is a boost, but whether he can play that hustling role as effectively as Khedira remains to be seen. Mourinho could also call upon Esteban Granero, an intelligent central midfielder, to play alongside Xabi Alonso and Pepe. Real have been very physical in the centre of the pitch, and one would expect the same again. They've also had a red card in each of the three Clasicos so far this season, and I fancy another one here, available at around [3.0]. Pepe, Alvaro Arbeloa and Sergio Ramos are three to watch in this respect.

Up front, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Mourinho go without a striker again, with Ronaldo and Mesut Ozil providing the attacking threat, with Angel di Maria on the left, blocking Alves' runs. Emmanuel Adebayor has done well when coming off the bench in the previous two games, and Mourinho might want a similar pattern of play here - keep it tight early on, then open up in the second half. I think a 0-0 at half time is a good bet if it creeps over the [3.0] mark, especially as this outcome has occurred in the last two meetings between the sides.

Recommended Bets
'Yes' in 'Sending Off' at [3.0]
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Big Match Tactical View: Liverpool v Manchester United

Premier League / Michael Cox / 05 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Edwin Van Der Sar should expect a busy afternoon at Anfield

"Carroll will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing Smalling and Brown –and if he does, first goalscorer odds of [8.5] look pretty good."

Forget about the two matches that we've already seen between these clubs this season, because Sunday's contest at Anfield will be entirely different, says Michael Cox.

This is the third match of the season between Liverpool and Manchester United, with Sir Alex Ferguson's men winning the first two games narrowly - 3-2 and 1-0. Those two matches were both at Old Trafford, however, and back at Anfield Liverpool will be confident of ending a poor run of form against their rivals.

Kenny Dalglish had been in charge for a matter of hours before the 1-0 defeat to United, and his job was made more difficult when Steven Gerrard was dismissed in the first half for an unnecessary two-footed lunge on Michael Carrick. This will be a completely different contest.

The major team news concerns Manchester United's centre-backs. With Nemanja Vidic sent off against Chelsea and therefore joining Rio Ferdinand on the sidelines, United are significantly weakened at the back. The replacement partnership looks set to be Wes Brown alongside Chris Smalling - a duo that have never played together before. The two are reasonably similar and would both prefer to have a stronger, more physical character alongside them, and United have looked much more prone to conceding headed goals when Vidic is not on the pitch.

The major beneficiary of that weakness would be Andy Carroll - but it remains to be seen whether he'll be fit enough to play. Carroll's first game of the season was against United, where he gave their back four a torrid time, winning 12 of his 16 aerial battles - and that was against Vidic. He'll be licking his lips at the prospect of facing Smalling and Brown -and if he does, first goalscorer odds of [8.5] look pretty good. Remember, bets are voided on any player who takes no part in the match or who comes on as substitute after the first goal has been scored.

Dalglish's first decision will be about his formation, however. His reintroduction of a back three worked excellently against Stoke and Chelsea - perhaps catching his opponents by surprise - but last week against West Ham, Liverpool were outplayed. If United play a 4-5-1 shape, or have one of their forwards dropping off into midfield, Liverpool's back three may become unnecessary and Dalglish would find himself with a shortfall in midfield. With that in mind, he might consider it wise to switch to a back four here, with a fluid five man midfield supporting the lone striker, or if Carroll is fit, more of a traditional 4-4-2.

Ferguson's formation is equally unpredictable - Dimitar Berbatov has generally been dropped from United's big games so far this season, but having scored a hat-trick against Liverpool this season and winning the crucial penalty in the other, Ferguson might consider it wise to start the Bulgarian here. Away at Marseille recently, Ferguson used Wayne Rooney on the flank - and Rooney's versatility means that we might not know United's true shape even when the line-ups are revealed. Rooney can play upfront or wide, Darren Fletcher can play in the centre or on the right, and Nani can play on either flank - meaning the same XI players could line up in a 4-4-2 or a 4-5-1 system. Javier Hernandez is another man to consider - he had a quiet game at Chelsea, but his pace might cause Liverpool's defence problems, though it wouldn't be a surprise to see him benched.

The formations and line-ups will have a bearing on the corners odds. If United play two wingers on their natural sides - Ryan Giggs and Nani, perhaps - they are much more likely to get to the byline and win corner kicks. On the other hand, if Nani is used on the left and Darren Fletcher is on the right, not looking to get down the line, United will play through the centre more. On the other hand, Liverpool's system with wing-backs has generally produced a high number of corners - so if betting on corners markets, the formations will be crucial.

It's hard to look past the fact that neither defence looks very solid here, and with that in mind, both teams to score at [1.95] is my second recommended bet.

Recommended bets:
Carroll to score first at [8.5]
Both sides to score at [1.95]

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The Big Match Tactical Preview: Arsenal v Birmingham

Carling Cup / Michael Cox / 26 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Samir Nasri will probably play in the fabregas role with Niklas Bendtner also a good candidate for a starting place

"Walcott often helps Arsenal by stretching the play and providing an outlet on the flank, but his absence means Arsenal are much more keen on working the ball through the centre of the pitch. I think this might result in a low corner count, so will be backing 9 or less corners at around [3.3]."

Michael Cox talks tactics, team selection and best betting oportunities ahead of Sunday's Carling Cup final.

The focus here is on Arsenal having the chance to win their first trophy since 2005, but Birmingham haven't won a major honour since 1963 - this final means a great deal to both sets of supporters.

Sadly, injury setbacks have dominated the build-up to this final for both sides. Arsenal's 1-0 midweek win over Stoke saw them robbed of both Cesc Fabregas and Theo Walcott for their Wembley trip, whilst Birmingham look set to be without centre-back Scott Dann, and former Arsenal midfielder Alex Hleb. Another former Gunner, David Bentley, is cup-tied.

Arsene Wenger will stick to his 4-2-3-1 system. Arsenal's injury problems mean that Andrei Arshavin, who has got over his recent poor run of form, will start on the left for Arsenal, with Samir Nasri likely to come infield and play the Fabregas role. With Robin van Persie set to skipper the side upfront, the final attacking position is up for grabs - it's likely to be on the right in Walcott's position (though Nasri's versatility means Wenger could change things), and whilst Tomas Rosicky is perhaps a more natural fit, the Czech's below-par performances recently means Nicklas Bendtner may get a start against the club he was on loan to in 2006/07.

Alex McLeish has a decision to make about his formation. In recent weeks, he's paired Obafemi Martins and Nikola Zigic in a 4-4-2, but in this game it wouldn't be a surprise if he opted to play a more conservative 4-5-1 formation. Lee Bowyer will probably replace Bentley and has the ability to play either as a wide player or in the centre - that will depend on the formation, with Martins probably preferred if McLeish goes 4-4-2, and Jean Beausejour more likely for a 4-5-1. The shape of Birmingham will play a part in the pattern of the game - McLeigh might want to keep things tight early on and have the option of introducing another striker, so 4-5-1 seems more appropriate.

That might mean the ball spends a lot of time in the midfield zone. Arsenal are likely to dominate possession, whilst Birmingham have caused them some problems in recent years by sitting back and defending very narrow, forcing Arsenal to go down the outside. Walcott often helps Arsenal by stretching the play and providing an outlet on the flank, but his absence means Arsenal are much more keen on working the ball through the centre of the pitch. I think this might result in a low corner count, so will be backing 9 or less corners at around [3.3].

Birmingham's main threat could come from an aerial route through Zigic. The Serb is not the best natural header of the ball, but has improved in that respect in recent weeks, and his height is always a threat. He nodded in against Arsenal earlier in the season at the Emirates and has scored two headers in the last three games. Arsenal would do well to cut off the supply to him - Sebastian Larsson's crossing is always a threat from the right, so Gael Clichy will have to stick tightly to him early on.

Also down that flank, Arshavin against Stephen Carr should be an interesting battle. Carr is a much quicker, fitter player than his age would imply, and Arshavin is notably rather slack defensively at times. Carr's first priority will be to keep Arshavin quiet, but don't be surprised to see him get forward to work 2 v 1 situations with Larsson. That might be a promising area of the pitch for Birmingham, whilst set-pieces are also likely to be utilised effectively.

Arsenal's interplay around the box will surely cause Birmingham problems, however, and their 3-0 win at St Andrews on New Year's Day was one of their most impressive performances of the season. I fancy them to score a couple here, so will also back Arsenal To Score In Both Halves at [2.5].

Recommended bets:

9 or less corners at [3.3]
Arsenal To Score In Both Halves at [2.5]

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