Home and Away: Valencia nothing to lose as PSG miss Zlatan

Bet 1: Valencia (AWAY) @ 4.2
Bet 2: Notts County (HOME) @ 2.3

Jonno Turner looks to select two sides for the win at decent value tonight - focusing on Valencia's trip to France, and a key game for play-off chasing Notts County.

We're off to France for our first pick of the day - and Paris Saint Germain look to protect a 2-1 first leg lead, as they welcome Valencia to the Parc des Princes in the Champions League.

The hosts looked set to keep an all-important clean sheet in Spain in that night, but a goal from Vicente Guaita in the dying moments threw the tie into dissaray, and the Spaniards will hold real hope of getting themselves back into this tonight.

Carlo Ancelotti's side will be missing key players Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Marco Verratti, who are both suspended from the first leg, and they will be big absences to them in the final third - as they attempt to get back on track following a rocky performance against Reims at the weekend.

A 1-0 loss in that game showed up the flaws of PSG - and with the pressure mounting on Ancelotti, it will be interesting to see how they respond to the many questions being asked of them in this clash.

The loss of Ibra in particular can not be underestimated. The Swede has smashed 22 goals in his 24 appearances this campaign, and his side looked lacking in ideas at the weekend without him to lead the line.

Much has been made of the hosts impressive form on their own patch, and they are unbeaten since November going into this one - but not many sides will have attacked them as their guests will be looking to do this evening, desperately in need of a goal.

Valencia go into this encounter having lost just one of their last eight games home and away, and six wins and a draw from their last eight away from the Mestalla suggests that they are more than capable of securing a result here.

Ernesto Valverde's charges have won their last two Champions League outings on the road, scoring four and keeping two clean sheets, and I think that they are cracking odds to pull another impressive performance out of the bag in Paris.

The visitors know that they must score in order to stand any chance of progression in this competition, and for that reason, they may be worth a back - with a view to trading out for a quick profit if they notch a goal first.

With nothing to lose in this game, Los Che might as well go for broke - and I think that they are very good value for the win here, against a PSG side missing their talisman striker.

Bet 1: Valencia (AWAY) @ 4.2

Back to more familiar climes now - and focusing on League One, as Notts County host Leyton Orient at Meadow Lane.

Magpies manager Chris Kiwomya has seen something of a resurgence from his side of late, and they have lost just one of the half a dozen games they've played since he took over at the beginning of February.

A five match unbeaten run since then has seen the home side to 10th in the division, and they are now eight points off the coveted play-off positions with 11 left to play.

The hosts have not lost on their own patch since New Year's Day - and three wins from their last four in front of their own fans suggests that they are hard to beat at the Lane.

Kiwomya has no new injury worries ahead of this one, and is expected to stick with the 3-5-2 formation which fared them so well in a 1-0 victory against Carlisle on Saturday.

Leyton Orient travel up the M1 sitting in 13th place in the table, and just one win from five will have knocked confidence down at Brisbane Road.

Furthermore, one win from eight on the road suggest travel sickness on the part of the visitors - and 11 goals shipped in that time indicates that their defensive weaknesses could play a big part in the outcome of this game.

Russell Slade's side have kept just one clean sheet from their last seven, and his headaches continue this evening as influential defender gary Sawyer remains sidelined through injury.

Bet 2: Notts County (HOME) @ 2.3

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The Big Match Tactical View: Barcelona v Valencia

Spanish Football / Michael Cox / 18 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Pep Guardiola and Unai Emery have great respect for one another, and relish their strategic battles

"Jeremy Mathieu has stormed forward to great effect against Barcelona this season"

The fourth meeting between the sides this season should be yet another interesting battle between two fine tacticians, says Michael Cox.

Barcelona v Valencia, Sunday 20:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Barcelona [1.29], Valencia [12.5], The Draw [6.4].

Barcelona are ten points behind Real Madrid in La Liga, and we now have to consider something new about the side - level of motivation. Never before under Pep Guardiola has there been a question about how much effort Barcelona will put into their league performances, but now the league might be put to one side. After all, they're in the final of the Copa Del Rey, and remain [2.44] favourites for the Champions League.

Guardiola has a lot of respect for Unai Emery, and the tactical battles between the two have been particularly interesting in the last couple of years. In fact, in the past two league fixtures between the clubs at the Nou Camp, Guardiola has been forced into changing things at half time having been out-thought by Emery in the first half.

There is also more recent history between the two coaches - they've already faced each other twice in 2012, in the semi-final of the Copa del Rey. Barcelona came out on top in that two-legged tie, but Valencia caused them significant problems, as they did in the league meeting at the Mestalla, which ended in a 2-2 draw.

In the meetings this season, Guardiola has favoured his 3-4-3 system, rather than the variant of 4-3-3 he's used for the majority of his time in charge of the club. That approach has had mixed success - it dominates the centre of the pitch, but can be vulnerable to quick breaks down the flanks.

Valencia have exploited that weakness very well this season, almost exclusively down the left. There, Unai Emery has long favoured playing two left-backs in tandem against Barca, with Jeremy Mathieu generally lining up ahead of Jordi Alba, with the two switching around at will. That's now a key feature of the Valencia side, and whereas the primary reason for playing it against Guardiola's side was to stop Daniel Alves being such an attacking threat, it also works well in an attacking sense. Mathieu has stormed forward to great effect against Barcelona this season, and I expect him to feature prominently here, especially if Guardiola goes 3-4-3.

But he might not. In the first game between the sides this season he used Alves high up as the right-sided attacker, but he could play at right-back in a four, with Eric Abidal being either a left-back or a left-sided centre-back accordingly. In midfield, Xavi Hernandez will have a late fitness test, while Cesc Fabregas will probably be played in the front three alongside Lionel Messi and Alexis Sanchez.

Emery has a couple of decisions to make. First, how much will Valencia press? Often they've been very energetic at the Nou Camp but tired later on, and with two fewer days' rest after the sides' respective midweek Champions League clashes, this could be a risky strategy.

Second, who should Emery play in the centre of midfield? His 4-2-3-1 means he can play an attack-minded player behind the forward, like Pablo Piatti or Jonas, but here I think he might go for a more cautious approach, and play Ever Banega with David Albelda and Tino Costa behind. Albelda often seems to get into trouble against Barcelona, so I fancy him to be shown a card at [3.0].

The midfield battle will be dominated by the home side - the question is what Barcelona can do in the final third. At times this season the influence of Fabregas has made them a little too direct, and in a match like this I think Guardiola will encourage his side to be more patient with their passing. With that in mind, combined with Valencia's tendency to tire, I'll back Draw/Barcelona in the Half Time / Full time market at [5.0].

Recommended bets:
Albelda to be booked at [3.0]
Draw / Barcelona in Half Time / Full Time at [5.0]

The slaughter at the Bernabeu has become ritual. Tobias Gourlay performs a pre-mortem autopsy on Racing Santander, the next victims of Real Madrid....

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As next week's Champions League games draw the attention of Real Madrid and Barcelona, Tobias Gourlay looks at whether they will have it all their own way against some tricky opponents...

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Valencia v Barcelona: Visitors to recover and seal first-leg victory

/ Michael Lintorn / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The Copa del Rey offers Barcelona's best chance of domestic silverware

"Valencia have triumphed in each of their last four two-legged ties with Barcelona, the last of which occurred in the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey four years ago."

Barcelona head to Valencia for the first leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final on the back of two rotten performances and results, but Michael Lintorn expects them to react well...

Valencia v Barcelona, Wednesday 20:00, Sky Sports 3, Match odds: Valencia [5.4], Barcelona [1.77], The Draw [3.9]

There's so much to factor into betting on this encounter, before even considering how much of an impact the two-leg scenario will have on both coach's strategising.

The case for Valencia is far stronger than for most sides facing Barcelona. They have triumphed in each of their last four two-legged ties with the Catalan giants, the last of which occurred in the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey four years ago.

In addition, Barcelona have prevailed on just two of their last eight trips to the Mestalla and their domestic away form this season falls way short of their lofty standards, Saturday's draw at struggling Villarreal marking their seventh travelling stutter.

But despite all that, you can't look at Barcelona's unusually big odds of [1.77] and not feel tempted. Their record on the road remains flawless in the cups after all, with six wins in six and AC Milan and Real Madrid among those conquered, while Valencia have won only two of their last seven games.

The decisive trend in prompting this writer to back the visitors even after the poor displays against Real Madrid and Villarreal though is that they have never gone three matches without a victory under Pep Guardiola, bouncing back on ten occasions, and by an average win margin of three goals.

Correct score

Barcelona have won all three of their Copa del Rey away fixtures by a one-goal margin however, while ten of Valencia's 11 home defeats since November 2008 have come in the same fashion.

So Guardiola's men are unlikely to recover as emphatically this time, especially as Unai Emery is fairly cautious in these games and will prioritise ensuring that his team head to the Camp Nou with progress still possible. 0-1 [[9.4]] and 1-2 [[9.2]] consequently appeal as correct score options.

Best Bet: Barcelona to win @ [1.77]
Other Recommended Bet: Barcelona to win 1-0 @ [9.4] or 2-1 @ [9.2]

Barcelona head to Valencia for the first leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final on the back of two rotten performances and results, but Michael Lintorn expects them to react well......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

Talk that AC Milan are still scrambling for a way to sign Carlos Tevez perseveres, however while that move remains highly unlikely, there has been plenty of action in Milan on deadline day......

James Eastham expects this match to follow the form book as Group D reaches its tantalising conclusion....

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Moto GP Betting: Valencia set to celebrate Simoncelli

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 04 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

"If it's dry, Pedrosa will be the to watch and at [2.9] represents great value."

There will be minute of noise before Sunday's race as the Moto GP community remembers the late Marco Simoncelli. Trent Burton hopes we see a great race to round off a mixed season.

This weekend's Moto GP Championship finale at Valencia doesn't quite have the feeling of a season ending party as in year's past.

The weather's rubbish, Jorge Lorenzo and Colin Edwards are both out with injury and the showdown between Stefan Bradl and Marc Marquez for the Moto2 title is done with Marquez not fit to ride. But all that is dwarfed by the fact that this is the paddock will be without the late Marco Simoncelli following his tragic accident just two weeks ago in Malaysia.

Every bike this weekend is adorned with some tribute to the Italian and it's fair to say it's been difficult for all to focus on the job at hand this weekend. But this is racing and sometimes, unfortunately, horrific things happen. Marco himself said as much just a few days before his own crash. MotoGP will not, cannot, be the same without Marco and speaking as someone who knew him personally a little, it will be a much poorer sport. We hadn't seen the likes of him, in terms of the pairing of talent and charisma, since Valentino Rossi. But this weekend will be about celebrating him and now the best, nay, the only appropriate tribute to the former champion is to be out on track and racing this weekend.

Rain is expected for the whole weekend and the smart money for the win, as it has been all year, would be with new champion Casey Stoner. But given the chaos that often comes with a wet race, and given the title's already in the bag, I don't think he's worth a punt at [1.81].

Dani Pedrosa and Andrea Dovizioso are battling over third in the championship and that's where the race for the win may actually come from. If it's dry, Pedrosa will be the to watch and at [2.9] represents great value. He simply cannot be the third Repsol Honda in the standings. His pride won't allow it.

Dovi moves to Yamaha next year and desperately wants to fire a parting message to Honda. If it does rain he may just do that. Pedrosa often struggles in the wet and Dovi has been labelled the best wet weather rider in the class by no less than Kevin Schwantz. So keep an eye on the forecast and, if it is does rain come Sunday, [16.9] for a Dovi win won't be as far fetched as it sounds.

This is meant to be an unbiased column but this week I'm breaking with impartiality. I'll be hoping for rain on Sunday for one reason: the Ducatis are competitive in the wet. And I want, Hell, everyone wants Valentino Rossi to, at the very least, be on the podium come Sunday. Marco was 'like his little brother' and the two of them were great friends. Vale will be running a special Marco helmet come Sunday and whilst whoever wins will be dedicating their win to him, it seems right that it should be Valentino.

Never mind the fact that, if he doesn't triumph on Sunday, this will be Rossi's first ever season without a win. If it rains, Rossi will be up the front. He'll be fired up and we may just see the Rossi of old. Odds of [13.5] for a win is very tempting and [5.0] for a podium is a sound investment even when you take the sentiment of it out of it.

So as 2011 draws to a close let me offer a final congratulations to Casey Stoner who has dominated this season and is a thoroughly deserving champion. Also a fond farewell to a true legend in the retiring Loris Capirossi who's been racing in the world championship for an amazing 22 years. There will be a 'Minute of Noise' as opposed to a minute of silence on Sunday at 10:15 and let's hope it's a great race, run flat out with nothing left in the locker. It's what Super Sic would've wanted. See you all in 2012.

Ciao Marco.

Trent Burton announces the cancellation of the Malaysian MotoGP and pays tribute to a great champion......

Life is rosy in the Casey Stoner garden but this weekend he may just have to allow Dani Pedrosa a bit of the limelight. The Spaniard badly needs a win and it's a decent bet he'll get it....

Trent Burton looks ahead to Sunday's big race and explains why he believes home fans could be in for a treat......

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Pre-season Friendly Betting: Hamburg v Valencia

Betfair Live Video / Michael Lintorn / 02 August 2011 / Leave a Comment

Unai Emery has guided Valencia to some impressive pre-season results

"None of Hamburg's 11 games to date have been drawn [[3.65]] and ten have featured over 2.5 goals, which is offered at a tempting [1.86]."

Hamburg and Valencia meet in a glamour friendly in Germany on Tuesday evening, in which Michael Lintorn fancies the visitors to impress once again.

Being the third best team in Spain is no longer considered a great achievement now that it entails finishing over 20 points behind Barcelona and Real Madrid, but there is much to admire about the ability of Valencia to reinvent themselves without missing a beat.

Last season, they survived the departures of David Villa and David Silva despite spending less than half of what they gained in sales by investing what they could afford wisely to retain third ahead of neighbours Villarreal. They are [3.15] to be La Liga's best of the rest again.

A third straight top-three finish will be the toughest of the lot to achieve given the rise of moneybags Malaga, who have signed Ruud van Nistelrooy, Jeremy Toulalan, Santi Cazorla and Valencia duo Joaquin and Isco, though underappreciated coach Unai Emery is the best man to thwart them.

Pre-season preparations have gone fairly well so far, the majority of exits being dictated by the club rather than to them, with prize asset Juan Mata still there and the clause allowing him to leave for £22 million expiring and Real Madrid youngster Sergio Canales the latest of several new additions.

Their friendly form has been strong, with victories and clean sheets achieved against PSV, Leicester and Sporting Lisbon, and only Rapid Wien defeating them, yet they are [3.25] to triumph in their latest away to Hamburg, which is live for Betfair customers to watch at 6.15pm on Betfair Live Video.

Hamburg have had a busy summer themselves, complete with a new boss in Michael Oenning, new sporting director in Frank Arnesen and a load of ex-Chelsea youngsters such as Michael Mancienne, Gokhan Tore and on-loan Jeffrey Bruma.

A mixed pre-season has featured losses to Wolfsburg and Borussia Dortmund, indicating that their odds of [2.3] appeal to lay rather than back. None of their 11 games to date have been drawn [[3.65]] and ten have featured over 2.5 goals, which is offered at a tempting [1.86].

Best Bet: Valencia to win @ [3.25]
Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [1.86]

There is another hugely appetising friendly that Betfair customers can watch for free on Wednesday, as Barcelona and Bayern Munich contest the Audi Cup Final......

Few pre-season games attract 74,244 fans but this meeting of capital clubs from Germany and Spain is a rare exception that you can watch live on Betfair......

Barcelona are not as certain of victory over South American giants Internacional in the semi-finals of the Audi Cup as their odds suggest, says Michael Lintorn....

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European Grand Prix Betting: Vettel can make amends in Valencia

Formula One / Ralph Ellis / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Vettel in the Montreal rain - he will prefer the dry of Spain

"Vettel is [1.6] to take his sixth pole of the season, yet he’s [2.22] to win the race. Given his performances so far, that’s great value."

After a late error cost him the race in Canada, the World Champion is heading to Spain this weekend, determined to return to winning ways, says Ralph Ellis.

My mum, bless her, was always one for sayings. You know the sort of thing. I bet your mum was the same. 'You can't judge a book by its cover'; 'Plenty more fish in the sea'; 'Many a true word spoken in jest.'

She had another which I've kept as a favourite: 'He who never made a mistake, never made anything.' I still regularly trot it out now when I've mucked up at work, or failed at anything else I've tried. It's a good mantra because if you're scared to do things wrong then you'll never do anything at all.

I've just finished reading Matthew Syed's excellent book Bounce, on the psychology of creating a sporting champion. Among other things he's worked out that an Olympic figure-skating gold medal winner had fallen on her backside 20,000 times. It's not making mistakes that matters, it's how you learn from them and don't make them again.
Which brings us to Sebastian Vettel, who so spectacularly stuffed up on the last lap of the Canadian Grand Prix. The German was an absolute cert for his sixth win in seven races of the season so far until he lost control on a bend and let Jenson Button fly past him. It was an astonishing error, one that reminded you of how last year began with Vettel repeatedly starting on pole but failing to win.

You may recall. The 2010 season began with Vettel going through a series of blunders. Three times in the first four races of the season he qualified in first place, and each time he mucked it up. It wasn't until Valencia and the European Grand Prix that he was quickest in qualifying and led the race from start to finish. He had learned from what went wrong, and he went on learning all season to collect the title.

At every level sport encourages you to analyse performance and get better. This week, whether it's Vettel and Lewis Hamilton at the front of the grid, or Indian driver Narain Karthikeyan trying to reward some home support in Valencia for his Hispania Racing Team, everybody is trying to improve.

So it's a fair bet Vettel is heading to Spain with the thought in mind that he won't repeat what happened in Montreal. If he qualifies in pole, he'll win. Especially where the weather is dry, and the track warm. On a street circuit which is probably the toughest for overtaking in the calendar, even harder than Monaco, that's worth remembering.

Vettel is [1.6] to take his sixth pole of the season, yet he's [2.22] to win the race and, given his performances so far, that's great value.
I began this season thinking it made sense to lay Vettel at the start of Grand Prix weeks when the reigning champion was always such a short price. Yet even when I'd lost money doing that, I still sent some more down the drain by backing Lewis Hamilton in Monaco and Montreal. This week I've decided to learn from those mistakes and put my money on Vettel. At last. Now what was it my mum used to say?

Five things you might not know about Narain Karthikeyan

1. Born in Chennai in January 1977, his father G.R.Karthikeyan was seven times South India rally driving champion
2. Inspired by watching Formula One on TV, he persuaded his dad to send him age 14 to France to enrol in the Elf Winfred Racing School. From there he went to England and got a degree in business administration
3. Outside motor sport his big passion is wildlife photography.
4. He has had tutoring from Sachin Tendulkar on how to deal with the pressures of fame in India
5. His cousin is top Indian businesswoman Rajshree Pathy, chairman of the Indian Sugar Mills Association

Button brings home the bacon for his In-Play backers with unbelievable come-from-behind win...

The world champion may be starting in pole position but James Frankland believes a certain Spaniard can upset the odds in Canada on Sunday night....

Lewis Hamilton is Romilly Evans' pick for the Canadian GP, he only wishes the McLaren driver was more graceful....

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Champions League Betting: Valencia v Schalke

Champions League / James Eastham / 14 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Raul has scored plenty of goals at the Mestalla during his Real carerr but his Schalke side have their work cut out

"Valencia are [1.67] to go through and [1.72] to win on the night. The second price looks too big considering Valencia have won eight of 12 home league games so far and thrashed Rangers (3-0) and Bursaspor (6-1) when those two sides visited the Mestalla last autumn."

Valencia are favourites to progress and unsurprisingly odds-on to win the first leg but the price on offer is a good one, all things considered, says James Eastham.

Match Odds

In theory Schalke ought to be favourites as they topped their opening-phase group whereas Valencia finished second. Yet the Germans landed in one of the weakest pools, whereas Valencia faced Manchester United. The Spaniards picked up only two points fewer (11pts) than Schalke (13pts).

Valencia's league form has been far better all season: they're third in the Primera Division with 47pts from 23 matches (effectively making them the 'best of the rest' considering the gulf that separates Barcelona and Real Madrid from the division's other 18 sides). Lying 10th, Schalke have already lost nine of 22 Bundesliga matches, including four of 10 away from home.

Valencia are [1.67] to go through and [1.72] to win on the night. The second price looks too big considering Valencia have won eight of 12 home league games so far and thrashed Rangers (3-0) and Bursaspor (6-1) when those two sides visited the Mestalla last autumn.

Under / Over

Twelve of Schalke's 22 league games have featured over 2.5 goals, although six of their last seven matches have had under 1.5 goals. Two of their three Champions League away games have also featured under 1.5 goals. These low-scoring stats go against the general Bundesliga trends, but the price of [1.69] on under 2.5 goals isn't big enough to offer much value.

Nine of Valencia's 17 (53%) home games in all competitions have had over 2.5 goals, including 2/3 in the group phase. Putting together the two clubs' stats, few strong patterns emerge.

To Score

The Champions League all-time top scorer Raul has been in fine form since moving to Germany last summer: the former Spain striker has netted 10 times in 22 league games and added a further two goals in six Champions League appearances. He's [4.5] to score anytime on a ground he knows well from his 16 seasons at Real Madrid.

Valencia strikers Aritz Aduriz (seven league goals plus two UCL goals) and Roberto Soldado (the club's five-goal leading scorer in this competition) are trading around [2.7] to find the net. As these two have scored between them more than half of Valencia's goals in the tournament, you might like to consider splitting your stakes across the pair. Should one of them score, you'll make a profit.

Best Bet: Valencia to beat Schalke @ [1.72].

Other Recommended Bet: Back Aritz Aduriz [2.7] and Roberto Soldado [2.7] to score anytime (split your stakes)

Valencia are favourites to progress and unsurprisingly odds-on to win the first leg but the price on offer is a good one, all things considered, says James Eastham....

AC Milan, Roma, Valencia and Barcelona are all in action this week and go into this round as favourites to progress. Which of these are likely to be the victims of an upset though, asks Matthew Walton....

The Champions League and Europa League draws have thrown up plenty of exciting betting opportunities, says Matthew Walton....

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La Liga Betting: Sociedad to win, perhaps Valencia too

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 10 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Valencia are going for a seventh win in eight against psychologically fragile Atletico Madrid.

"Diego Forlan is being booed by the fans and his strike partner, Sergio Aguero, has realised it is time to move on."

Atletico Madrid's own coach does not really believe in them any more. And neither does Tobias Gourlay.

Atletico Madrid v Valencia (Saturday 1700 GMT)

Quique Sanchez Flores admitted his side was mentally weak after losing 3-0 to Barcelona last weekend. He did not just mean they were mentally weak in the face of the champions. It is much deeper than that. Quique is not helped by the self-serving behaviour of Atleti's board of directors and is no longer sure that he knows how to solve the problem.

Diego Forlan is being booed by the fans and his strike partner, Sergio Aguero, has realised it is time to move on. This team should not be [2.16] to beat Valencia at the Vicente Calderon on Saturday afternoon.

Valencia have won six of their last seven Liga games and 2/3 away from home. Coach Unai Emery's incessant tinkering attracts a lot of criticism, but there is usually a good reason for it. [3.75] is a great price at which to back to win, but you might want to cover the draw by taking them at [2.75] in the Draw No Bet market.

And don't forget Los Che's late-goal habit. Strikes in the last 15 minutes have changed the results of six of their last seven matches.

Sporting Gijon v Barcelona (Saturday 1900 GMT)

Barcelona have won an unprecedented 16 Liga games in a row. More than likely they will win a 17th at El Molinon on Saturday evening.

How will they win?

- By getting ahead before half-time. That is what they have done in 9/10 away games already this season.
- By a margin of at least three goals. That is what they have in all of their most recent five away games.
- By keeping a clean sheet. That is what they have done in four of their most recent five away games.

When a team is all-conquering like Barca, the opposition's patterns are less important than usual. In which case, there is value in backing any of Barcelona/Barcelona ([1.6]), Barcelona -2.5 on the Asian Handicap ([2.3]) and Barcelona Win to Nil ([2.1]).

Real Sociedad v Osasuna (Sunday 1600 GMT)

Pep Guardiola has started something in Spanish football. Full backs who attack like wingers, forwards who defend like midfielders, defenders who step into midfield, midfielders who drop into defence. It is a new formula and a very successful one so far.

Martin Lasarte has been taking notes. His Real Sociedad team play an aggressive 4-2-3-1, attacking the opposition with and without the ball, working very hard. Opponents are often taken aback by this and six of the last seven visitors to Inoeta have been behind at the end of the first half.

This weekend, Osasuna are in town. They are the La Liga's worst away team, going W0-D2-L9 outside Pamplona this season. Tack on the end of last season and they have lost 17 of their last 19 matches on the road. They have been behind at half-time in seven of the most recent eight defeats.

[3.8] for Sociedad/Sociedad?

Big. Value.

Espanyol v Real Madrid (Sunday 2000 GMT)

A couple of goals for Emmanuel Adebayor. A couple of games without injury for Kaka. There are good reasons for Jose Mourinho to be cheerful this weekend. Whether there are good reasons for Real Madrid to be [1.49] to win at Espanyol on Sunday night is debatable.

Real have only won 6/11 away from home this season. Young, hungry Espanyol have won 8/10 at Cornella-El Prat. But it must be a worry for Espanyol's backers that their two defeats have come recently and against the teams either side of Real in the table.

Better to accompany this game with a glass of Rioja than any sort of bet.

Best Bet: Back Sociedad/Sociedad at [3.8] v Osasuna
Recommended Bet: Back Valencia Draw No Bet at [2.75] v Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid's own coach does not really believe in them any more. And neither does Tobias Gourlay....

Real Madrid tried very hard to keep pace with Barcelona in the first half of the season, but are now paying for their exertions, reports Tobias Gourlay in his weekly Spanish football column....

With disharmony between management and board, new players not up to the job and refereeing decisions going against them, Real Madrid may have to give up on the Spanish title and focus on the Champions League, says Jonathan Wilson....

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