Home And Away: Happy ever Aftur for in-form visitors

Michael Lintorn is filling in for Jonno Turner this week. Evidently, he can't compete on the gag front. Will his tips compensate...

The outcome of the SFL's meeting on Friday has prompted the TV companies to apologise to all subscribers for wrongly advertising that they could watch Rangers in 3D. They meant Rangers in D3.

The Gers' demise has inspired us to follow suit by digging down the divisions for our first pick, all the way to Iceland's third tier, where Afturelding's recent success suggests that they can capitalise on HK Kopavogur's sudden surrender of form.

HK Kopavogur have shifted from a run of four wins in five to a four-match spell without a triumph which represents the second longest lean streak in the entire division.

By winning five of their last six, Afturelding have surged past them and all the way up to fourth in the table, with the opportunity to leap to second, two points off the top, by prevailing here.

Their away displays haven't matched those on their own patch but, glossing over a hammering at rock bottom KFR, there have been signs of improvement, with two of their last three road trips in all competitions resulting in 3-1 wins.

Also in their favour is the fact that they are the most prolific team in the league, and they have been at their most productive lately. With a huge reward for three points, they stand a fine chance of making it six wins in seven.

Bet 1: Afturelding (AWAY) to win @ 2.941/1

A group of chess enthusiasts were kicked out of the hotel I stayed at this weekend for discussing their victories. Turns out the manager can't stand chess nuts boasting in an open foyer.

Our second tip takes us to a fixture as delicately poised as a chess match in the Finnish Veikkausliiga, as Lahti bid to put more distance between themselves and the bottom of the table against faltering title chasers IFK Mariehamn.

The hosts have shown no sign of being scarred by their shock 2010 relegation on their return to the top flight, piling seven wins on the board already.

Their home form should ensure that there is no nervy conclusion this time, and they showed that their strong record in front of their fans since promotion is sustainable a fortnight ago by beating table-topping FC Inter 4-3.

IFK Mariehamn by contrast have seen their challenge at the top compromised by poor away results. Their last five encounters on the road in all competitions have produced just one win compared to three defeats in which they have conceded ten goals.

It is a similar story for them when visiting Lahti, collecting a point at best on their last eight trips there.

Bet 2: Lahti (HOME) to win @ 2.761/1

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Man United v Athletic Bilbao: Away goal for ambitious visitors

Europa League / Michael Lintorn / 08 March 2012 / 1 Comments

Athletic Bilbao star Fernando Llorente will go to Euro 2012 with Spain

"Athletic Bilbao have netted nine times in their last five away outings despite winning less than half of those, conceding the same number."

Opta reveal that Manchester United's collisions with Spanish clubs are rarely goal-heavy, but Michael Lintorn expects this to be an exception...

Manchester United v Athletic Bilbao, Thursday 20:05, Five, Match odds: Manchester United [1.53], Athletic Bilbao [7.6], The Draw [4.5]

Manchester United fans must wonder why they were so sceptical about the Europa League. After last month's visit to Amsterdam, there is now a trip to Bilbao - albeit a costly one - to look forward to, as well as a chance to check out a team who have set tongues wagging across Europe this season.

Athletic Bilbao are led by one of South America's most lauded coaches, Argentine tactical innovator and attractive football advocate Marcelo Bielsa, and after a troubling start, the results have been fairly spectacular.

The Basque club topped a Europa League group featuring big-spending Paris St-Germain, will meet Barcelona in the Copa del Rey Final and sit fifth in La Liga, their momentum causing them to be rated [2.02] frontrunners in the wide-open race for the final Champions League place.

With Spain internationals Andoni Iraola, Javi Martinez, Iker Muniain and Fernando Llorente at their disposal and all seemingly buying into Bielsa's elaborate ideas, the future appears promising for the well-liked Lions, however they are [7.6] outsiders for this test.

They head to England on a high after completing a derby double over Real Sociedad at San Mames - one of the continent's most atmospheric stadiums - at the weekend, but it is their recent away form that is evidently under closer scrutiny ahead of this round-of-16 clash.

Athletic are winless in three on the road, losing two of those, since beating third-tier Mirandes in their Copa del Rey semi-final first leg, and have lost their last two Europa League games overseas. They have taken just one point from a possible nine away to top-six rivals domestically too.

There are question marks over Manchester United after costly draws at home to Basel and Benfica in the Champions League were followed by defeat to Ajax in their first Europa League tie as hosts, yet the above stats seem to vindicate their status as favourites, even if odds of [1.53] look a touch short.

Over/under 2.5 goals

The standout Opta insight into this fixture is that, excluding games on neutral territory, Manchester United's last eight matches against Spanish sides in Europe have produced a total of only four goals.

Odds of [1.78] on over 2.5 suggest that trend is unlikely to continue though and the evidence of the season so far support that price. Six of the Red Devils' last seven home European encounters have featured three goals or more, as have three of Athletic's four on their travels in this competition.

Both teams to score

This writer has a hunch that Bielsa's boys will upset the odds and qualify at [3.35], but even if that suspicion proves misguided, there is a strong case for backing both teams to score here at [1.87].

Athletic have netted nine times in their last five away outings despite winning less than half of those, conceding the same number, while Manchester United have leaked in seven of their last eight at Old Trafford in continental action, shipping seven in the last four.

A 2-1 triumph for Sir Alex Ferguson's side appears the most appealing correct score option at [9.4], having been the end result in three of their last five games. Two of the Spaniards' last three away fixtures have finished that way, with it also the result in half of their six defeats as visitors.

Best Bet: Both teams to score @ [1.87]
Other Recommended Bet: Manchester United to win 2-1 @ [9.4]

As always, all the headlines about Manchester City this week revolve around Mario Balotelli, but the Italian is far from certain to start away to Sporting Lisbon on Thursday......

Manchester United had yet another bad European night at Old Trafford but thankfully for them they did enough in the first leg to progress. Elsewhere, Stoke crashed out at the hands of Valencia....

Betfair was the place to be for correct score betting in the Europa League this week, particularly on the matches involving Premier League teams......

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Valencia v Barcelona: Visitors to recover and seal first-leg victory

/ Michael Lintorn / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

The Copa del Rey offers Barcelona's best chance of domestic silverware

"Valencia have triumphed in each of their last four two-legged ties with Barcelona, the last of which occurred in the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey four years ago."

Barcelona head to Valencia for the first leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final on the back of two rotten performances and results, but Michael Lintorn expects them to react well...

Valencia v Barcelona, Wednesday 20:00, Sky Sports 3, Match odds: Valencia [5.4], Barcelona [1.77], The Draw [3.9]

There's so much to factor into betting on this encounter, before even considering how much of an impact the two-leg scenario will have on both coach's strategising.

The case for Valencia is far stronger than for most sides facing Barcelona. They have triumphed in each of their last four two-legged ties with the Catalan giants, the last of which occurred in the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey four years ago.

In addition, Barcelona have prevailed on just two of their last eight trips to the Mestalla and their domestic away form this season falls way short of their lofty standards, Saturday's draw at struggling Villarreal marking their seventh travelling stutter.

But despite all that, you can't look at Barcelona's unusually big odds of [1.77] and not feel tempted. Their record on the road remains flawless in the cups after all, with six wins in six and AC Milan and Real Madrid among those conquered, while Valencia have won only two of their last seven games.

The decisive trend in prompting this writer to back the visitors even after the poor displays against Real Madrid and Villarreal though is that they have never gone three matches without a victory under Pep Guardiola, bouncing back on ten occasions, and by an average win margin of three goals.

Correct score

Barcelona have won all three of their Copa del Rey away fixtures by a one-goal margin however, while ten of Valencia's 11 home defeats since November 2008 have come in the same fashion.

So Guardiola's men are unlikely to recover as emphatically this time, especially as Unai Emery is fairly cautious in these games and will prioritise ensuring that his team head to the Camp Nou with progress still possible. 0-1 [[9.4]] and 1-2 [[9.2]] consequently appeal as correct score options.

Best Bet: Barcelona to win @ [1.77]
Other Recommended Bet: Barcelona to win 1-0 @ [9.4] or 2-1 @ [9.2]

Barcelona head to Valencia for the first leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final on the back of two rotten performances and results, but Michael Lintorn expects them to react well......

A tip from the Joker to get your betting day under way......

Talk that AC Milan are still scrambling for a way to sign Carlos Tevez perseveres, however while that move remains highly unlikely, there has been plenty of action in Milan on deadline day......

James Eastham expects this match to follow the form book as Group D reaches its tantalising conclusion....

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