Hungarian Grand Prix: Can Vettel hold off the Brits?

Formula One / James Frankland / 30 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

The front three for Sunday's Grand Prix

"Vettel was top of Saturday’s practice session by three tenths of a second, and secured an eighth pole position of the season later in the day."

The world champion is in pole position but, with the two McLarens directly behind him, does James Frankland believe we might see a consecutive British victory?

Red Bull always seem to find time when they need it most. Having finished behind Lewis Hamilton in both of Friday's free practice sessions, the Milton Keynes-based team used up the first of their curfew allocations to work deep into the night on Sebastian Vettel's car. The result? Vettel was top of Saturday's practice session by three tenths of a second, and secured an eighth pole position of the season later in the day.

Red Bull needed to up their game in the face of a determined push from McLaren, who qualified second and third in Hungary, Hamilton shading Jenson Button by less than half a tenth. The Ferrari duo occupy fourth and fifth places, Felipe Massa - returning to the track at which he suffered a fractured skull in 2009 - ahead of Fernando Alonso, who has rather better memories of this venue: it was where he scored his debut Grand Prix victory back in 2003. Last year's winner, Mark Webber, is in sixth and has an uphill task ahead of him to repeat his 2010 triumph.

Hungary is a track that does not breed overtaking, although the placement of the DRS zone, which can be used for the full length of the start/finish straight, should aid efforts this year. As ever the onus will be on whoever leads into the first corner to generate themselves at least a one second gap straight away, else they risk falling into the clutches of those behind.

At last year's race, Red Bull had a massive margin over the rest, for the circuit accentuates what makes the blue car so good - its efficient use of the downforce it generates and its grip through medium and high-speed corners. Vettel only failed to win here last year by making an uncharacteristic mistake under a safety car period and I expect he'll remember that tomorrow. His error allowed Webber to build momentum in his own championship challenge and he won't want to give Hamilton, or any of the chasing pack, the same confidence boost ahead of the four-week summer break.

Tyre strategy for cars further down the order has been key to picking up points and in Hungary, Williams have had a go at trying to give their season a boost, deliberately not running Pastor Maldonado in the second qualifying session so the rookie can start with one more fresh set of tyres. The team have suffered a difficult season with a car that is not really suited to high downforce tracks, but Maldonado knows the track well from his GP2 days and could be a good outside bet for a points finish at [5.5]. Slightly shorter odds can be found on Kamui Kobayashi [1.82] starting 13th, and the [2.82] for Paul di Resta, who starts only one place out of the points in 11th, is also worth considering.

Finally, if you fancy that come race day, Mark Webber can match his teammate's pace and join him on the Hungarian Grand Prix podium, then his odds of [3.65] are worth a look. He may need some strategic help from his pit wall colleagues to achieve that, mind.

Recommended Bets
Sebastian Vettel to win @ [2.58]
Mark Webber to finish on the podium @ [3.65]
Paul di Resta to score points @ [2.82]

He may have messed up in Germany but the World Champion has proved that he can put his rare mistakes behind him. Ralph Ellis expects Sebastian Vettel to return to winning ways this weekend....

We may have a very competitive race ahead of us on Sunday with Hamilton, Webber and Alonso very difficult to split in the betting. The weather, as ever, will play a big part, says James Frankland....

Jorge Lorenzo capitalised on a rare Casey Stoner slip-up last time out and now he senses blood. Trent Burton thinks the Spaniard can follow up......

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European Grand Prix Betting: Vettel can make amends in Valencia

Formula One / Ralph Ellis / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Vettel in the Montreal rain - he will prefer the dry of Spain

"Vettel is [1.6] to take his sixth pole of the season, yet he’s [2.22] to win the race. Given his performances so far, that’s great value."

After a late error cost him the race in Canada, the World Champion is heading to Spain this weekend, determined to return to winning ways, says Ralph Ellis.

My mum, bless her, was always one for sayings. You know the sort of thing. I bet your mum was the same. 'You can't judge a book by its cover'; 'Plenty more fish in the sea'; 'Many a true word spoken in jest.'

She had another which I've kept as a favourite: 'He who never made a mistake, never made anything.' I still regularly trot it out now when I've mucked up at work, or failed at anything else I've tried. It's a good mantra because if you're scared to do things wrong then you'll never do anything at all.

I've just finished reading Matthew Syed's excellent book Bounce, on the psychology of creating a sporting champion. Among other things he's worked out that an Olympic figure-skating gold medal winner had fallen on her backside 20,000 times. It's not making mistakes that matters, it's how you learn from them and don't make them again.
Which brings us to Sebastian Vettel, who so spectacularly stuffed up on the last lap of the Canadian Grand Prix. The German was an absolute cert for his sixth win in seven races of the season so far until he lost control on a bend and let Jenson Button fly past him. It was an astonishing error, one that reminded you of how last year began with Vettel repeatedly starting on pole but failing to win.

You may recall. The 2010 season began with Vettel going through a series of blunders. Three times in the first four races of the season he qualified in first place, and each time he mucked it up. It wasn't until Valencia and the European Grand Prix that he was quickest in qualifying and led the race from start to finish. He had learned from what went wrong, and he went on learning all season to collect the title.

At every level sport encourages you to analyse performance and get better. This week, whether it's Vettel and Lewis Hamilton at the front of the grid, or Indian driver Narain Karthikeyan trying to reward some home support in Valencia for his Hispania Racing Team, everybody is trying to improve.

So it's a fair bet Vettel is heading to Spain with the thought in mind that he won't repeat what happened in Montreal. If he qualifies in pole, he'll win. Especially where the weather is dry, and the track warm. On a street circuit which is probably the toughest for overtaking in the calendar, even harder than Monaco, that's worth remembering.

Vettel is [1.6] to take his sixth pole of the season, yet he's [2.22] to win the race and, given his performances so far, that's great value.
I began this season thinking it made sense to lay Vettel at the start of Grand Prix weeks when the reigning champion was always such a short price. Yet even when I'd lost money doing that, I still sent some more down the drain by backing Lewis Hamilton in Monaco and Montreal. This week I've decided to learn from those mistakes and put my money on Vettel. At last. Now what was it my mum used to say?

Five things you might not know about Narain Karthikeyan

1. Born in Chennai in January 1977, his father G.R.Karthikeyan was seven times South India rally driving champion
2. Inspired by watching Formula One on TV, he persuaded his dad to send him age 14 to France to enrol in the Elf Winfred Racing School. From there he went to England and got a degree in business administration
3. Outside motor sport his big passion is wildlife photography.
4. He has had tutoring from Sachin Tendulkar on how to deal with the pressures of fame in India
5. His cousin is top Indian businesswoman Rajshree Pathy, chairman of the Indian Sugar Mills Association

Button brings home the bacon for his In-Play backers with unbelievable come-from-behind win...

The world champion may be starting in pole position but James Frankland believes a certain Spaniard can upset the odds in Canada on Sunday night....

Lewis Hamilton is Romilly Evans' pick for the Canadian GP, he only wishes the McLaren driver was more graceful....

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Sebastian Vettel won't win the Drivers' Championship

Formula One / The Betfair Contrarian / 07 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will hostilities between Vettel and Webber scupper the German's chances?

"The Drivers' Championship is tougher to retain than ever... "

Sebastian Vettel who took the chequered flag in Australia, prompting many to predict a successful title defence. The Contrarian isn't buying it though, and thinks the Red Bull driver represents an irresistible lay at [1.92]. Here's why...

There are 18 races to go

Nine of the last 14 winners of the seaon curtain-raiser have gone on to be crowned champion but that statistic alone isn't enough to justify Vettel's price being sliced from [3.4] to [1.92]. There are countless examples of drivers starting a campaign strongly before fading - for example, David Coulthard twice triumphed in the opener and on five occasions made the podium without ever seriously challenging. Last season, Alonso delivered in Bahrain before enduring nine straight races without success, whereas Vettel ended March 25 points off the pace yet still recovered.

Nobody ever stays on top

As the Contrarian highlighted recently, the Drivers' Championship is tougher to retain than ever due to the climate of constant rule change and dependence on manufacturers and strategy. The past five seasons have produced five different world champions (Fernando Alonso, Kimi Raikkonen, Hamilton, Jensen Button and Vettel). It's even harder to stay on top in your early years, as shown by the fact that of the eight youngest winners in history, only two managed to do it again the following year. Vettel has now surpassed those eight as the youngest ever driver to establish himself as the sport's finest. He faces an equally daunting task to stay there.

McLaren are stronger than anticipated

McLaren were accused of sandbagging in pre-season testing after exceeding all expectations at the Australian Grand Prix, where Hamilton finished second and Button wound up sixth. The Woking-based team weren't fancied to be anywhere near as high in the standings this early in the campaign after their poor performances over the winter and the fact that they are - regardless of whether it is due to exaggerating the extent of their malaise or making swift progress - is bad news for Vettel and Red Bull, who looked set to have a chance to build a big lead before McLaren achieve top form.

The return of team orders is a blow

One of the most significant of the latest batch of regulation alterations is the return of team orders, allowing constructors to instruct their drivers to let title-chasing team-mates pass them and the like. It's one that might not please the Red Bull bosses too much given that their employees Vettel and Mark Webber had the most trouble of all the leading pairings when it came to working in tandem last year. The veteran Australian became increasingly frustrated with what he perceived to be the favourable treatment towards his younger colleague and may feel that it is his turn to be supported. This year is one of his final opportunities to reach the top.

Petrov is this year's dark horse

Incredibly, each of the last four seasons have provided first-time champions, so don't discount the prospect of an emerging talent threatening the traditional frontrunners. This year's potential surprise package is Renault's Russian driver Vitaly Petrov, who after an unremarkable first season, hit the headlines in the finale at Abu Dhabi after holding off title contender Alonso for sixth place, much to the Spaniard's frustration. He got the better of the two-time champion again in Australia for his first podium and, while Alonso claimed that he wasn't bothered as he doesn't view Petrov as a rival, not all punters agreed with his dismissal, as the 26-year-old's price has shot in from [730.00] to [230.00].

While other stars whinge and curse, Lewis Hamilton is showing remarkable signs of maturity, says Ralph Ellis. But can he follow up his impressive performance in Australia with a win at Sepang this weekend?...

James Frankland on what we know so far about the different cars ahead of the first race of the season....

You'll be able to read articles about every Grand Prix of 2011 on Betting.Betfair as well as a comprehensive, up-to-the-minute race preview when qualifying has finished. For now, here's a quick update on the latest Championship odds....

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Australian GP Betting: Advantage Vettel

Formula One / James Frankland / 26 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

You were that fast without KERS?

"Given his speed, Vettel’s odds are understandably on the stingy side at [2.06]. Speed talks in F1 but Red Bull have a history of unreliability – last year Vettel lost a win in Bahrain due to a cracked exhaust and then dropped maximum points here in Australia with a brake failure."

James Frankland on what we know so far about the different cars ahead of the first race of the season.

Sitting in the centre of the press conference after securing pole position in Australia, Sebastian Vettel looked calm and relaxed. As well he might, because he knows that in the Red Bull RB7 he has an extremely fast car with which to begin the defence of his 2010 crown.

The measure of his advantage was about to be brought into sharp focus, when the opening question in the press conference revealed he had not used his KERS power boost (worth about 0.3s per lap) to set the time. That revelation caught Lewis Hamilton, sitting to Vettel's right by virtue of his second place, by surprise and his eyebrows arched upwards in shock. It later transpired Hamilton was unable to use his KERS either, due to a system failure in the final part of qualifying. But the existence of a 0.8s per lap difference between Red Bull and McLaren suggests that it is again the blue cars that will hold sway on track in 2011.

However, and as is ever the case in Formula One, there are factors that blur the picture somewhat. The new Pirelli tyres are a relative unknown - the teams have tested extensively on them during the winter and found that they will need to be used in a very different manner to the more durable Bridgestone rubber from previous seasons. With an emphasis on the driver to manage tyre wear throughout the race, drivers like Mark Webber (third on the grid) and Jenson Button (fourth) could come into play if their strategists are on the ball.

Last year's title contender Fernando Alonso could only line up fifth in the Ferrari, a full 1.7s off the pace of the Red Bull. Fernando's race pace will undoubtedly be closer to that of the leaders but it was an inauspicious start for the Maranello team who have been very public in their desire to win this year's championship.

Given his speed, Vettel's odds are understandably on the stingy side at [2.06]. Speed talks in F1 but Red Bull have a history of unreliability - last year Vettel lost a win in Bahrain due to a cracked exhaust and then dropped maximum points here in Australia with a brake failure. On that basis, Hamilton is worth a punt at [7.0] but his ability to keep the fragile Pirellis in shape could limit his ability to mix it with Vettel and Webber ([6.8]) over a race distance if the RB7s hold together. Conversely, Button's ([10.5]) smooth driving style may give him an advantage, even if outright pace is lacking.

It will take a few races before the 'right' tyre strategy becomes clear and until that happens, there are likely to be some unexpected results.

Recommended Bet:

Back Lewis Hamilton to win the Australian GP at [7.0]

You'll be able to read articles about every Grand Prix of 2011 on Betting.Betfair as well as a comprehensive, up-to-the-minute race preview when qualifying has finished. For now, here's a quick update on the latest Championship odds....

Rule changes, less durable tyres and Lewis Hamilton's battle with his ailing McLaren mean that the Formula 1 2011 season will involve all the drama and more of last year, says Ralph Ellis. That's why Sebastien Vettel is too short...

Two years of British dominance in Formula One was ended by Sebastian Vettel in 2010 but nobody stays on top of the sport for very long anymore, and the Betfair Contrarian believes that 2008 champ Lewis Hamilton will benefit from...

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