Northumberland Plate Betting: Mount Athos to make amends in Pitmen's Derby

Ante-post / Timeform / 22 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mount Athos and Harlestone Times are among the less exposed in Saturday's Northumberland Plate

"In attempting to come from right out the back (forced five wide on the bend), Mount Athos arguably shaped like the best horse at Chester and he’s definitely worth having on side on Saturday."

This Saturday sees Newcastle stage one of the most valuable two mile handicaps in the world, the Northumberland Plate, or the 'Pitmen's Derby' as it is commonly known. Timeform's Paul Robson takes a look at the race...

Quite often in these valuable staying handicaps, it is a horse with a jumping background that comes out on top, as was the case in 2010 when Overturn, who had improved markedly to win the Scottish Champion Hurdle, added the Plate to his record.

Donald McCain's dual-purpose star is back to defend his crown and has an obvious chance judged on his jumps form but, strictly speaking, he's badly handicapped on what he achieved when taking the Chester Cup last time. The feeling was that everything went his way at Chester, making all from the plum draw, and with his mark up a further 7lb, McCain has seen fit to try and negate some of it by using his stable conditional jockey Henry Brooke, who himself has more experience of the NH game.

Behind Overturn at Chester last time was David Wachman's Mount Athos, who was scuppered by the draw as he was beaten into fourth. Dropped out, Mount Athos had little chance from the position he found himself in and did little to alter the view of him formed on his winning debut for the stable (formerly trained by John Hills) at Dundalk, that there's improvement in him for his new handler. In attempting to come from right out the back (forced five wide on the bend), Mount Athos arguably shaped like the best horse at Chester and he's definitely worth having on side on Saturday.

Overturn and Mount Athos are both towards the head of the betting, but the currently market leader is Michael Bell's Activate, who has been the subject of strong support in recent days. The improving handicapper completed the hat-trick when making a winning reappearance at Haydock in May (had Deauville Flyer back in fourth) and is still relatively unexposed, not least for a test of stamina, his Haydock win the first time he had tried two miles. Bell took the Plate in 2007 with a similarly progressive sort in Juniper Girl and has a good chance of winning it again, with any further rain no issue for Activate, but the value in backing him has gone and we have to look elsewhere.

Deauville Flyer strikes as a better bet than the market leader, as the impression at Haydock was that he would give Activate more to think about were they to reoppose. Deauville Flyer was sent off favourite for the Plate last year, when not getting the rub of the green, and his efforts so far this season have hinted that he's still getting better, something he would have proven at Haydock with a clear run, beginning to wind up when hampered twice, losing all chance and finishing with running left.

Another lightly-raced and progressive type is Harlestone Times who is owned, bred and trained by John Dunlop. Harlestone Times has won three of his last four starts, and had Royal Ascot winner Beachfire back in third when successful at Goodwood last time. Although the furthest he's tackled so far is a mile and a half, he's both bred and shapes as if a test of stamina is what he wants, so it's no surprise to see him towards the head of the betting, striking very much as having plenty of improvement left in him.

Mark Johnston's Fox Hunt is another that has to come into the reckoning, having landed the Duke of Edinburgh at Royal Ascot last time. He has a few more questions to answer than most, however, as he'll be stepping up half a mile in trip and having his third race in three weeks, which might just find him out, especially if the ground is testing.

Nicky Mackay had a memorable Royal Ascot, winning two big handicaps, and one week on he'll have a chance of landing another with Investissement. Originally bought to go hurdling (for Evan Williams), Investissement was transferred to John Gosden's stable and showed improved form to make a winning return at Goodwood over a mile and three quarters in April, but he's got more on his plate in this more competitive field.

Without knowing the draw and quite how testing the ground is going to be at Gosforth Park on Saturday, it's hard to be confident about anything. But the value in backing Activate is long gone and Overturn (who missed Royal Ascot due to soft going) has a bit to prove, his potential based on him transferring more of his jumps form, so the pair to concentrate on are Mount Athos who shaped so well at Chester last time and Harlestone Times who has been crying out for staying trips, both of them still relatively unexposed.

Recommendations

Back Mount Athos @ [10.0] and Harlestone Times @ [9.4] in the Northumberland Plate at Newcastle.

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European Grand Prix Betting: Vettel can make amends in Valencia

Formula One / Ralph Ellis / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Vettel in the Montreal rain - he will prefer the dry of Spain

"Vettel is [1.6] to take his sixth pole of the season, yet he’s [2.22] to win the race. Given his performances so far, that’s great value."

After a late error cost him the race in Canada, the World Champion is heading to Spain this weekend, determined to return to winning ways, says Ralph Ellis.

My mum, bless her, was always one for sayings. You know the sort of thing. I bet your mum was the same. 'You can't judge a book by its cover'; 'Plenty more fish in the sea'; 'Many a true word spoken in jest.'

She had another which I've kept as a favourite: 'He who never made a mistake, never made anything.' I still regularly trot it out now when I've mucked up at work, or failed at anything else I've tried. It's a good mantra because if you're scared to do things wrong then you'll never do anything at all.

I've just finished reading Matthew Syed's excellent book Bounce, on the psychology of creating a sporting champion. Among other things he's worked out that an Olympic figure-skating gold medal winner had fallen on her backside 20,000 times. It's not making mistakes that matters, it's how you learn from them and don't make them again.
Which brings us to Sebastian Vettel, who so spectacularly stuffed up on the last lap of the Canadian Grand Prix. The German was an absolute cert for his sixth win in seven races of the season so far until he lost control on a bend and let Jenson Button fly past him. It was an astonishing error, one that reminded you of how last year began with Vettel repeatedly starting on pole but failing to win.

You may recall. The 2010 season began with Vettel going through a series of blunders. Three times in the first four races of the season he qualified in first place, and each time he mucked it up. It wasn't until Valencia and the European Grand Prix that he was quickest in qualifying and led the race from start to finish. He had learned from what went wrong, and he went on learning all season to collect the title.

At every level sport encourages you to analyse performance and get better. This week, whether it's Vettel and Lewis Hamilton at the front of the grid, or Indian driver Narain Karthikeyan trying to reward some home support in Valencia for his Hispania Racing Team, everybody is trying to improve.

So it's a fair bet Vettel is heading to Spain with the thought in mind that he won't repeat what happened in Montreal. If he qualifies in pole, he'll win. Especially where the weather is dry, and the track warm. On a street circuit which is probably the toughest for overtaking in the calendar, even harder than Monaco, that's worth remembering.

Vettel is [1.6] to take his sixth pole of the season, yet he's [2.22] to win the race and, given his performances so far, that's great value.
I began this season thinking it made sense to lay Vettel at the start of Grand Prix weeks when the reigning champion was always such a short price. Yet even when I'd lost money doing that, I still sent some more down the drain by backing Lewis Hamilton in Monaco and Montreal. This week I've decided to learn from those mistakes and put my money on Vettel. At last. Now what was it my mum used to say?

Five things you might not know about Narain Karthikeyan

1. Born in Chennai in January 1977, his father G.R.Karthikeyan was seven times South India rally driving champion
2. Inspired by watching Formula One on TV, he persuaded his dad to send him age 14 to France to enrol in the Elf Winfred Racing School. From there he went to England and got a degree in business administration
3. Outside motor sport his big passion is wildlife photography.
4. He has had tutoring from Sachin Tendulkar on how to deal with the pressures of fame in India
5. His cousin is top Indian businesswoman Rajshree Pathy, chairman of the Indian Sugar Mills Association

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