Big Saturday Multiple: Back Orient to make most of home advantage

Bet 1: Derby County (HOME) @ 1.728/11

Bet 2: Leyton Orient (HOME) @ 21/1

Bet 3: AFC Wimbledon (HOME) @ 1.910/11

Jonno Turner scans the bottom three English divisions and comes up with a treble to kick start the weekend in style...

It's been a miserable start to the season for relegated Fulham, and they're off to Derby County today, looking for their first point since their drop from the Premier League.

Back to back 1-0 losses have followed up an opening day defeat to Ipswich Town, and that leaves the Craven Cottage side languishing second bottom in the second tier, and on the road to becoming the whipping boys of the division.

And their form on the road is particularly poor. Just one victory since Boxing Day away from West London - a run consisting 13 outings - indicates that Felix Magath's side might struggle in this clash, as they make their way north up the M1.

Hosts Derby line up for this encounter having stumbled themselves, though. A 1-0 home win over Rotherham United was just the ticket for the first game of the season - but the Rams followed up with a goalless stalemate against Sheffield Wednesday, and a loss at Charlton last week.

But Steve McLaren's side are at least strong at Pride Park - and four wins from their last five in front of a home crowd will give them much confidence today.

County sit 14th in the table heading into this clash, but a win could put them right back amongst the top six - and they will be desperate to make the most of this opportunity.

It's been six year's since these two sides have done battle, but Derby have historically fared well against their guests, with five unbeaten from their last half a dozen home ties.

Bet 1: Derby County (HOME) @ 1.728/11

To the capital now, as we drop a division, where Leyton Orient host Walsall at the Matchroom Stadium.

The O's went into this season with big expectations following an impressive campaign last year which saw them narrowly miss out on promotion after leading for much of the way - but their hopes were quickly dashed as they succumbed to an opening day loss against Chesterfield.

Since that outing, Russell Slade appears to have galvanised his troops somewhat, and they have won two and drawn one of their subsequent three outings, a run which suggests that they are on an upward curve.

This is their first home clash since that surprise defeat, and the hosts will be keen to right a wrong, and grab their third win from four outings on their own patch.

One thing's for sure - this is a side drenched in goals. Darius Henderson, Dave Mooney and Kevin Lisbie have all gotten off the mark already this season, and six notched in their last three outings indicates that there is certainly no shortage of final third quality in Orient's ranks.

Walsall head south having won just one of their four outings this campaign - a League Cup clash against fourth division Southend United - and that means that the visitors are still to get off the mark in the league.

A 2-1 home defeat to Yeovil Town won't have done much for confidence in the Saddlers camp though, and with just two draws previous to that outing, Dean Smith's side teeter on the edge of the drop zone.

It is now four clashes since the visitors grabbed a win on the road, or indeed kept a clean sheet away from the Bescot Stadium, and I reckon that they might feel the full force of a Leyton Orient side keen to put things right in front of their home crowd.

Bet 2: Leyton Orient (HOME) @ 21/1

And heading south west of London now, where an in-form AFC Wimbledon welcome relegation-zone Hartlepool United to the Cherry Red Records Stadium.

The home side go into this one in fifth place in the fourth tier, and unbeaten in the league after their opening trio of outings.

A pair of back to back 1-0 wins on the road will have morale high in the home camp, and they will be looking to maintain that momentum as they line up on home turf.

With a front pairing of Matt Tubbs and Ade Akinfenwa, the Dons certainly know where the net is, and that experience could play a big part as they face a 'Pool side which has shipped a whopping 11 goals in their opening six hours of football this season.

Colin Cooper's charges make the arduous trip to this game having lost two home outings on the trot, both by two goals, and unfortunately for the Monkey Hangers, their form away from Victoria Park isn't much better.

In fact, they've not won in nine on their travels - and they've not even scored in six of those.

You have to ask whether their gaffer will be given much more time to turn around this miserable run, and that pressure could be playing on the visitor's minds a little bit. I just can't look past Neal Ardley's Dons for the win here.


Bet 3: AFC Wimbledon (HOME) @ 1.910/11

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Nicky Henderson: Cheltenham hill to Long Run's advantage in Gold Cup

The Cheltenham Festival / Timeform / 29 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Long Run will be defending his Gold Cup crown this year.

"I know Long Run's win (Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury) didn't please everyone, but it certainly pleased us..."

Nicky Henderson talks through the chances of stable stars Long Run, Burton Port, Binocular and Sprinter Sacre at the Cheltenham Festival...

Long Run (7 b.g Timeform Rating 182)
Burton Port (8 b.g Timeform Rating 166)

Henderson said: "I know Long Run's win (Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury) didn't please everyone, but it certainly pleased us. It was a pity we had to run two but it was the best place to start off Burton Port after his tendon injury.

"Some here even fancied Burton Port (who received 10 lb) to win that day because he's definitely a better horse than he was two years ago. Long Run jumped nicely and we think the Cheltenham hill will be to our advantage. Burton Port has an excellent record over fences and has yet to finish out of the first two. My worry with him is the bounce factor."

Although it was much better last time, Long Run's jumping is possibly his biggest hindrance for further Gold Cup glory and he currently trades at [3.35] for the March 16 showpiece. Burton Port, who looks well handicapped for the Grand National ([20.0]) on April 14 having been allotted a BHA rating of 158 before his Newbury return, finds himself behind his stablemate and Kauto Star only in the Gold Cup betting at [11.0].

Binocular (8 b.g Timeform Rating 167)

Henderson said: "What happened at Wincanton (beat Celestial Halo six lengths) was tremendous and it has put a spring back in our step. AP had mentioned his wind after the Christmas Hurdle and it's probably no coincidence Wincanton was his first run back from a soft palate procedure to correct that."

That strong-travelling win last time was much more taking that his two previous 'prep' runs for the Champion (forced to miss last year's renewal on the BHA's advice having been treated for an allergy leading up to the race) and he ran to the same Timeform rating as when taking the big one in 2010. He looks the leading home-trained hope and his current odds of [7.4] for the Champion Hurdle on March 13 feature look fair, whilst he can also be backed in the "To Be Placed" or "Without Hurricane Fly" markets.

Sprinter Sacre (6 b.g Timeform Rating 160p)

Henderson said: "I don't usually pay much attention to race times, but all three runs have been exceptionally quick yet he has finished hard on the bridle every time. After the Supreme last year, AP said he was suspicious of his wind and we therefore had that rectified.

"I know people say he's a flat track horse who won't come up the hill, but I don't subscribe to that. I read that Cue Card is going to make the running, which is fine."

A 152p rated hurdler, Sprinter Sacre has improved on each of his starts over fences so far and was especially exuberant when beating returning stable-companion French Opera by an eased-down six lengths in the Betfair Super Saturday Chase at Newbury last time. While he remains 1 lb behind Al Ferof in the current Timeform standings for the Arkle Chase, he is deemed open to more progression that that rival and it's hard to argue that he doesn't deserve his place as [2.38] market principal. Sprinter Sacre can also be teamed up with other Festival favourites in the "Favourites Acca" market.

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Nicky Henderson is predicting an ultra-close fifth clash between Long Run and Kauto Star in the Gold Cup......

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Burkina Faso v Angola: Traore and co. to gain early advantage

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Marseille midfielder Charle Kabore is one of several outstanding Burkina Faso internationals

"For Burkina Faso, winger Jonathan Pitroipa is a joy to watch, all balance, pace and high-speed dribbling ability. And Auxerre's Alain Traore's long-range shooting ability is the equal of anyone in the French league."

James Eastham expects tournament dark horses Burkina Faso to make a winning start against Angola on Sunday.

Burkina Faso v Sudan, KO 19:00 GMT, Eurosport 2, Match Odds: Burkina Faso 2.66, Angola, 3.05, Draw 3.05.

Angola have a better long-term and recent record at this tournament but the market suggests - rightly, in my view - that Burkina Faso are the likelier of the two to follow group favourites Ivory Coast into the quarter-finals.

With the Ivorians runaway jollies for not only the group but also the tournament, and Sudan [17.0] outsiders to win the pool, this match is crucial as the winners will take a massive step towards qualifying for the knock-out stage. It is therefore an immense test of nerve and character as well as talent as there is little room for error in a match that's likely to decide the tournament fate of both teams.

Burkina Faso (already tipped by Jack Houghton as potential tournament winners) have the better squad. The 23-man party coach Paulo Duarte has named for the finals includes a number of players that arrive at the finals with excellent credentials. Centre-half Bakary Kone, playing in France's third division for Guingamp 12 months ago, has adapted remarkably well to top-flight and Champions League football since joining Lyon five months ago; attacking midfielder Alain Traore's long-range shooting ability is the equal of anyone in the French league; and Rennes winger Jonathan Pitroipa (you can read an excellent interview with him here) is a joy to watch, all balance, pace and high-speed dribbling ability. Centre-forward Moumouni Dagano scored 12 goals in Burkina Faso's 2010 World Cup qualifying campaign.

Angola's squad comprises less appealing names. European football followers will be familiar Manucho (Real Valladolid) and Flavio (Lierse), among others, but I would rather back Burkina's burgeoning talents than men whose best days may be behind them.

My selection is Burkina Faso at [2.66] rather than Angola at [3.05]. I'd also rather back over 2.5 goals at [2.72] than unders at [1.55]. The general view of opening-round games is they're tight, low-scoring affairs, but 16 of the last 31 (52%) opening games for countries at this tournament, stretching back to 2004, have featured three goals or more.

Best Bet: Burkina Faso to beat Angola @ [2.66]
Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [2.72]

* James Eastham's tips for betting.betfair.com made a profit at both the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America

James Eastham believes Ivory Coast will avoid any slip-ups against rank outsiders Sudan on Sunday afternoon....

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Australian GP Betting: Advantage Vettel

Formula One / James Frankland / 26 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

You were that fast without KERS?

"Given his speed, Vettel’s odds are understandably on the stingy side at [2.06]. Speed talks in F1 but Red Bull have a history of unreliability – last year Vettel lost a win in Bahrain due to a cracked exhaust and then dropped maximum points here in Australia with a brake failure."

James Frankland on what we know so far about the different cars ahead of the first race of the season.

Sitting in the centre of the press conference after securing pole position in Australia, Sebastian Vettel looked calm and relaxed. As well he might, because he knows that in the Red Bull RB7 he has an extremely fast car with which to begin the defence of his 2010 crown.

The measure of his advantage was about to be brought into sharp focus, when the opening question in the press conference revealed he had not used his KERS power boost (worth about 0.3s per lap) to set the time. That revelation caught Lewis Hamilton, sitting to Vettel's right by virtue of his second place, by surprise and his eyebrows arched upwards in shock. It later transpired Hamilton was unable to use his KERS either, due to a system failure in the final part of qualifying. But the existence of a 0.8s per lap difference between Red Bull and McLaren suggests that it is again the blue cars that will hold sway on track in 2011.

However, and as is ever the case in Formula One, there are factors that blur the picture somewhat. The new Pirelli tyres are a relative unknown - the teams have tested extensively on them during the winter and found that they will need to be used in a very different manner to the more durable Bridgestone rubber from previous seasons. With an emphasis on the driver to manage tyre wear throughout the race, drivers like Mark Webber (third on the grid) and Jenson Button (fourth) could come into play if their strategists are on the ball.

Last year's title contender Fernando Alonso could only line up fifth in the Ferrari, a full 1.7s off the pace of the Red Bull. Fernando's race pace will undoubtedly be closer to that of the leaders but it was an inauspicious start for the Maranello team who have been very public in their desire to win this year's championship.

Given his speed, Vettel's odds are understandably on the stingy side at [2.06]. Speed talks in F1 but Red Bull have a history of unreliability - last year Vettel lost a win in Bahrain due to a cracked exhaust and then dropped maximum points here in Australia with a brake failure. On that basis, Hamilton is worth a punt at [7.0] but his ability to keep the fragile Pirellis in shape could limit his ability to mix it with Vettel and Webber ([6.8]) over a race distance if the RB7s hold together. Conversely, Button's ([10.5]) smooth driving style may give him an advantage, even if outright pace is lacking.

It will take a few races before the 'right' tyre strategy becomes clear and until that happens, there are likely to be some unexpected results.

Recommended Bet:

Back Lewis Hamilton to win the Australian GP at [7.0]

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