Premier League Opta Stats: Man United to lead early at West Brom

"West Brom have conceded the highest proportion of first-half goals in the Premier League this season (54%)."
Best Bet: Back Man United to lead at half time at West Brom @ 2.47/5

Michael Lintorn studied the Opta stats to settle upon four bets for this weekend's Premier League games...

West Brom v Man United (Saturday 12:45, BT Sport 1)
West Brom have conceded the highest proportion of first-half goals in the Premier League this season (54%)
The Baggies' slow-start syndrome has worsened under Pepe Mel, with the strugglers trailing at the interval in five of his six matches in charge, including all four at home - none of which they actually lost. Even the one time they weren't behind at the break at Aston Villa, they managed to blow a 2-0 nine-minute lead by half time. Man United were ahead by then on three of their last five Hawthorns visits.
Best Bet: Back Man United to lead at half time @ 2.47/5

Cardiff v Fulham (Saturday, 15:00)
Fulham have gone 13 Premier League away matches without a clean sheet
Cardiff have failed to score in four Premier League outings, but the above stat points to this battle of the bottom two as the perfect impotence cure. Fulham are clean sheet-free in 13 at all venues, yet are at least now scoring regularly, netting in four straight encounters, three of which were against top-seven sides. Six of the Cottagers' seven clashes with bottom-six companions saw both teams bag.
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.774/5

Crystal Palace v Southampton (Saturday, 15:00)
Southampton have only won four of their last 17 Premier League games (W4 D5 L8)
Southampton's fine work earlier this campaign will rightly earn a top-half reward, though their best form is behind them. It isn't just that they have only won four in 17, it is the fact that three of those wins came against the clubs 17th or lower. The Saints have lost their last two games, conceding three in each, and three of their four trips to London. Crystal Palace have won three of their last four at home.
Recommended Bet: Lay Southampton to win @ 2.285/4

Norwich v Stoke (Saturday, 15:00)
An average of 1.2 goals per game makes this the third lowest scoring fixture in Premier League history (using a minimum of five meetings)
Bolton v Southampton (1.17) and Man City v Sheffield United (1.0) join them on the world's dullest podium. The stats indicate that Norwich and Stoke will slim their average further at Carrow Road, where Norwich have kept four successive clean sheets, yet scored just two in five. Stoke have fired seven away blanks in nine, while the last four times that these bottom-half buddies collided, there was a 1-0 winner.
Recommended Bet: Back under 2.5 goals @ 1.674/6

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Next Stoke Manager: Poyet, Benitez and Di Matteo make the early running

"The early Betfair market for next Stoke manager has a distinctly Chelsea flavour at the top, with Roberto Di Matteo, Rafael Benitez and Brighton boss Gus Poyet (currently suspended from the club) all trading at sub 10.09/1 prices."

Betfair has opened a market on the next Stoke manager after it emerged that Tony Pulis is to depart the Britannia following a meeting with chairman Peter Coates this morning.

The Welshman spent a total of ten years at the Britannia Stadium. He first took the job in 2002 before spending a season at Plymouth Argyle in 2005/6 but then returning to Staffordshire to lead the Potters into the Premier League for the first time. 

Pulis did well to establish Stoke as a top flight outfit, taking them to an FA Cup final in 2011 and into Europe, playing a brand of football that was unloved by the purists, but undoubtedly effective.

However, after five years in the Premier League and heavy investment in the transfer market - only Manchester City and Chelsea have a higher net spend over that period - Stoke have failed to push on, leading to some supporter unrest and Pulis' time in the hotseat has come to an end.

The early Betfair market for next Stoke manager has a distinctly Chelsea flavour at the top, with Roberto Di Matteo, Rafael Benitez and Brighton boss Gus Poyet (currently suspended from the club) all trading at sub 10.09/1 prices.

The market also features young managers such as Eddie Howe as well as familiar names like Harry Redknapp and Mark Hughes.

Who's your money on?

Check out our end of season report on Stoke.

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rose and Woods dominate the early Arnold Palmer market

“Justin Rose was very impressive, especially with the putter, and he leads the way on -7 but I can’t believe he can putt like he did yesterday for all four days and I’m more than happy with Tiger’s start.”

Steve's happy with his picks so far this week but he's quite keen for Kiradech Aphibarnrat to slow-up and slow-up soon. Read his early thoughts here...

12:30 - March 22, 2013
For the second day running, thunderstorms struck Kuala Lumpur and play has had to be suspended at the Maybank Malaysian Open. They failed to resume at all yesterday but today they were able to get back out and play eight or nine holes. They've now finally finished for the day and they'll be back first thing in the morning.

My only pre-event wager, Charl Schwartzel, has completed two rounds and he's tied for second with China's Ashun Wi, one behind Thailand's Kiradech Aphibarnrat on -10, who still has eight holes to play of round two.

In theory, Schwartzel should be favoured by the two breaks. Although he had a very long day today, finishing up round one before playing round two in its entirety, I fancy all the players on his side of the draw, i.e. those that started in the afternoon on day one, have life a little easier. The fact that Schwartzel hasn't had to do any waiting around today and that he'll get a nice lie-in tomorrow should be in his favour.

Those drawn in the morning on day one will have to come back first thing tomorrow to finish-up round two and then they'll then have to wait around for their tee-time in round three. Not ideal at all.

Schwartzel has already traded as short as 1.784/5, when he held a three shot lead, but a scruffy finish to round two (two bogeys in his last four holes) has seen his price drift back out to 2.809/5, with Aphibarnrat looking his biggest danger.

I backed the burly Thai, who's apparently also known as Anujit Hirunratanakorn (one mammoth mouthful of a name not enough?), three years ago in this event at a huge price, as well as in the 2011 renewal, so if he were to win this week, it would certainly grate but I stopped backing him after last year's Avantha Masters when he put in yet another poor effort in-contention.

He's a talent for sure but his record in-the-mix isn't great and he still has only one Asian Tour title to his name. That said, I can't pretend his presence isn't an annoyance and if he is going to mess up again I wish he'd get on with it!

I could wake up tomorrow and find Schwartzel's a long way back and that the event has been reduced to just 54 holes but I don't think there's much I can do about it. With the benefit of hindsight, I should have input a lay back of my stakes at odds-on but it's always easy afterwards and I'm just going to leave things alone for now.

Over in the States, at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, according to the betting, it looks like a straight fight between just two players already, my man, Tiger Woods, now trading at 3.7511/4 and England's Justin Rose 3.9n/a.

Playing in the same morning three-ball yesterday, the pair opened their accounts for the week handsomely. Woods made three bogeys but still ended the day on three under-par, having played the par fives in five under, and as highlighted in the preview, that appears to be the key to success here.

Rose was very impressive, especially with the putter, and he leads the way on -7, two clear of John Huh and three ahead of both John Rollins and Brad Fritsch.

As the afternoon starters began tardily yesterday, I assumed that the advantage was with the early starters but as it transpired the late starters averaged a score of 73.15, compared to 73.85 in the morning. With barely any wind forecast today, Woods and co, playing in the afternoon today, shouldn't be inconvenienced and given how hard it is to make up ground in this event, the market could be right.

I can't believe Rose can putt like he did yesterday for all four days and I'm more than happy with Tiger's start, so for now, I'm leaving things alone here too.

Maybank Malaysian Open Pre-Event Selection:
Charl Schwartzel @ 7.413/2

Arnold Palmer Invitational Pre-Event Selections:
Tiger Woods @ 4.216/5
Bubba Watson @ 38.037/1

* You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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Michael Vaughan: Swann needs to take early wickets on day three

Test previews / Michael Vaughan / 27 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Chin up. Graeme Swann has a smile after a good individual performance but there's plenty of work still to do.

"It may just be worth taking a chance on England at [3.7] with a view to laying off at [3.0]. This isn’t a pitch that’s easy to get used to and the two men currently at the crease –Dinesh Chandimal and Suraj Randiv - will have to start all over again. So a couple of early wickets could well be on the cards."

Michael Vaughan tells us just why England find themselves in such a precarious situation at the moment and how Graeme Swann needs to strike early when Sri Lanka resume their innings on the morning of day three.

First things first. I've got no problem with the way England went about picking their XI. They chose the side that they thought gave them the best chance of winning the match and Samit Patel bowled well, taking two wickets on Test debut, which is a decent return. He misjudged the flight of a good delivery when he was batting but didn't look out of his depth at any stage. He didn't fare any worse than most of the England's batting order.

England's problems lay elsewhere. Firstly they let Sri Lanka off the hook last night - Monty Panesar twice dropping Mahela Jayawardene, who cashed in after being given two lifelines. You wouldn't expect any less from a player of his calibre. We'll have to wait and see just how important those extra runs he scored will be but they could end up making all the difference.

Secondly, England made a right hash of batting on what looks a pretty decent wicket. The England of a year ago would have posted 350 and put pressure on Sri Lanka, who would then be playing catch-up. To not match Sri Lanka's total on a decent wicket against a bowling line-up that is conventional and solid but lacks any true world-class performers was nothing short of criminal. Rangana Herath is a good spinner who doesn't bowl too many bad deliveries but England have made him look like Muttiah Muralitharan if his figures of 6/74 are anything to go by.

Andrew Strauss' side looks mentally scarred from that series against Pakistan. And if they were guilty of being too defensive and focusing too much on just on not getting out in the UAE, this time they've gone the other way and batted too aggressively. Erratically at times. There's been something of a mental failure, no doubt about that.

The only positives to come out of today's proceedings as far as England are concerned were that Ian Bell looks in good touch and that Graeme Swann bowled beautifully. The only reason they're still in with a chance of winning this match at all is because the Notts spinner took the prize scalp of Mahela Jayawardene, as well as the wickets of Kumar Sangakarra, Lahiru Thrimanne and Thilan Samawareera. He'll need to take quite a few more and do so pretty early on in the proceedings if England are to limit the hosts to anything that they could realistically chase.

It may just be worth taking a chance on England at [3.7] with a view to laying off at [3.0]. This isn't a pitch that's easy to get used to and the two men currently at the crease -Dinesh Chandimal and Suraj Randiv - will have to start all over again. So a couple of early wickets could well be on the cards.

I see that a finish on day three is currently trading at odds-on and that may be worth laying. Sri Lanka may yet bat for another session and if someone like Alastair Cook or Jonathan Trott gets in they could hang around and just bat time, knowing that the longer they stay at the crease the more of a chance they have of chasing a total. Nothing silly, the runs will come naturally. We've seen those two play like that before and if they build a couple of good partnerships that may well be enough to take the game into day four.

Given the way the England top order (Bell excluded) managed to find ways to get out, I'm not sure any of them deserve my money behind them for second innings top bat honours! But Jonathan Trott rarely fails twice in the same match and if it's patience that is required to play a big innings here, then he's the man to side with.

1pt Back England at [3.7], lay off if they trade below [3.0]
1pt Lay Test Match end Days One, Two and Three @ [1.98]
1pt Back Jonathan Trott to be England second innings top batsman @ [5.0]

Sri Lanka skipper Mahela Jayawardene was, not for the first time, the thorn in England's side as the hosts moved on to 289/8. It will mostly be trial by spin when England bat tomorrow but how will they cope?...

Ed Hawkins, the Betting Writer of the Year for the second year in succession, has all the stats and analysis ahead of the match, which starts on Monday...

England can survive without Ravi Bopara as a bowler but they'll have their hands full trying to contain the devastating duo of Kumar Sangakarra and Mahela Jayawardene. Sri Lanka are unlikely to win but they offer a fine trading opportunity,...

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Cheltenham Early Market Movers: Wednesday March 14

Market Movers / Editor / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

All the early betting moves from the Betfair markets ahead of the second day of action at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival

13.30
Teaforthree 8.6 in to 7.4
Daffern Seal 22.0 out to 27.0
Lively Baron 44.0 in to 32.0
Our Island 55.0 in to 34.0

14.05
Simonsig 2.9 out to 3.45
Monksland 6.53 in to 5.7
Make Your Mark 8.71 out to 9.8
Cotton Mill 15.42 in to 11.0
Secret Edge 72.56 in to 32.0
Close House 77.1 in to 50.0

14.40
Bobs Worth 4.6 out to 5.5
First Lieutenant 7.6 in to 6.4
Call The Police 20.0 out to 26.0
Lambro 25.0 out to 34.0

15.20
Finians Rainbow 5.8 out to 6.4
Big Zeb 5.7 out to 7.0
Realt Dubh 32.0 in to 25.0

16.00
Balgarry 8.6 out to 10.5
Get Me Out Of Here 12.5 in to 10.0
Silverhand 32.0 in to 21.0
Cape Dutch 18.5 out to 25.0
Son Of Flicka 70.0 in to 26.0
Tenor Nivernais 42.0 in to 32.0
First Fandango 65.0 in to 40.0
Knight Pass 26.0 out to 46.0
Shoreacres 32.0 out to 70.0
Golan Way 90.0 out to 170.0

16.40
Kazilan 10.0 in to 8.8
Gorgeous Sixty 16.5 in to 9.4
Ulck Du Lin 9.2 out to 14.0
Arnaud 24.0 out to 46.0

17.15
Sir Johnson 16.5 in to 13.5
Champagne Fever 12.0 out to 17.5
Horatio Hornblower 22.0 in to 15.5
Village Vic 22.0 in to 16.0
Many Clouds 26.0 out to 42.0

All the latest betting moves ahead of the first day of the 2012 Cheltenham Festival...

All the latest betting moves just 15 minutes before the off on Gold Cup day...

All the early betting moves ahead of today's racing at Cheltenham...

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US Masters 2012: Bet on this trio now for the early value

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Brandt Snedeker has made a splash at Augusta before

"Nick Watney has been friendless in the Augusta market so far, drifting from [40.0] to a recent high of [60.0]. However, weekend rounds of 69 and 67 offer hope that he's finding his range again, and the next fortnight offers a couple of good opportunities."

With Rory McIlroy gobbling up attention at the head of the market punters are forgetting about other Augusta contenders with some spectacular prices available on good players with a genuine chance of Masters glory, says Paul Krishnamurty

If there's a single defining feature of current golf outright markets, it's confusion. Punters are still trying to adjust to golf's new order, where Tiger Woods is no longer top dog and among his biggest rivals over the past decade, only Phil Mickelson remains a leading contender.

Apart from the general consensus that Rory McIlroy is now the man to beat, odds about everyone else seem to fluctuate wildly. One good week, and a player's odds for upcoming events collapses. Likewise a bad fortnight and players drift markedly, sometimes to three or four times the level they began that bad 'spell'.

Take the example of last week's winner Justin Rose. At the beginning of March, Justin was available around [120.0] for the Masters. Since Sunday he's been matched down to [32.0]. Shrewdies aware of his wider Augusta credentials will be sitting pretty right now, either banking their profit already or leaving a substantial 'free bet' for next month's major.

It is a stone-cold certainty that something similar will happen to impressive performers in the three weeks between now and the Masters. All three PGA Tour events will attract elite fields, likely to yield champions that then become popular picks. With an eye on past form in these events and at Augusta, I reckon there's plenty of mileage backing the following trio now for the Masters.

Back Nick Watney @ [55.0]
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=103455189&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
Partly in response to a slow start to 2012, and also perhaps a failure to land a spectacular gamble in last year's Masters, Watney has been friendless so far, drifting from [40.0] to a recent high of [60.0]. However, weekend rounds of 69 and 67 offer hope that he's finding his range again, and the next fortnight offers a couple of good opportunities. He's finished top-13 in each of the last three Transitions Championship
renewals, and has finished fourth before at next week's venue, Bay Hill.
Contending seriously for either event will probably spark another gamble, as Watney has often been touted as the identikit Augusta winner since making the top-20 on his first three cracks at the Masters. Twelve months ago, he started amongst the favourites for the season's opening major at around [17.5], so a bet now at three times that level has obvious trading mileage.

Back Brandt Snedeker @ [90.0]
Similarly, Snedeker's early Augusta efforts make him very much a player to keep on side at this time of year. Remember, Augusta is the sort of track that generally penalises experience, which makes Snedeker's third place on his first visit as a pro in 2008 read even better. One of the game's finest short-game exponents, he also finished 15th last year, and with a win to his name already in 2012, is bound to have his supporters at these big odds. Indeed, given that he's twice finished top-eight before in the Transitions, Brandt could well be the next subject of a Rose-style gamble.

Back Martin Laird @ [130.0]
While Laird remains very much an outsider for the Masters at [130.0], his recent efforts have really caught the eye and the next fortnight could well be very lucrative. The Scot will be defending champion at Bay Hill, and having finished fifth last year at Copperhead, is shortlisted this week too. Though he finished down the field at Doral last week, Laird ranked second for greens in regulation, retaining the excellent ball-striking seen previously during his run to the quarter-finals of the World Matchplay.
Laird's Augusta debut made few waves, but 20th place was an excellent first attempt in such a demanding Major. As a relatively long-hitter with a high ball-flight, Laird has the game for Augusta.
In any case, at these big odds, there's little meaningful risk about an in-form, improving player.

There was drama galore in the final round of the WGC Cadillac with big ramifications for the Masters betting. Tiger Woods pulled out injured, Rory McIlroy finished strongly again, and Justin Rose won his first WGC event. Mike Norman reports......

Rory McIlroy is the new World Number One after a two-stroke victory at the Honda Classic. But joint runner-up there Tiger Woods was in imperious form himself and things are tight in the Betfair US Masters winner market....

With the first big event of 2012 completed and just five weeks until the Masters, what did we learn from the World Matchplay? Paul Krishnamurty weighs up the performances and progress of the big-names....

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Opta Stats: Early goals for Bayern Munich, none at all for Inter

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Until last week, it looked like Mario Gomez would challenge Lionel Messi to be Champions League top scorer

"Mario Gomez has scored 14 goals in his last 12 Champions League appearances (excluding qualifiers)."

Michael Lintorn has looked over the Opta stats and found reasons for Bayern Munich fans to be optimistic, but very few positives omens for Inter...

Bayern Munich v FC Basel

Nine of Bayern's 11 goals have been netted in the first half, the highest proportion in the Champions League this season (82%)
This stat suggests that the chunky odds usually offered on the first half producing more goals than the second 45 are well worth taking. Further support for such a wager is provided by the fact that nine of the 13 goals at the Allianz Arena in the Champions League this season have come before the break.

Mario Gomez has scored 14 goals in his last 12 Champions League appearances (excluding qualifiers)
And the Bundesliga's top scorer fired three past Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on Saturday to draw a line under a rare four-game drought, the first of those coming as early as the fifth minute. The German international grabbed the opener in two of his side's three home encounters in the group stage.

Inter v Marseille

Marseille have never scored more than once in their 15 encounters against Italian opposition in Europe (excluding Intertoto Cup)
This is one of several under 2.5 goals indicators, another one being that Marseille have the worst shooting accuracy figure of any team in the last 16, with just 37% of their efforts hitting the target. Their last six matches have all featured two goals or fewer, as have four of Inter's last half-dozen.

Marseille have kept nine clean sheets in their last 13 Champions League games
Inter have lost their last three clashes with Didier Deschamps' men 1-0, and their chances of finally scoring against them this time aren't great given that they have been shut out in seven of their last ten fixtures in all competitions. They haven't struck in the first 70 minutes of any of their last seven.

Recommended Bets:
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105068656&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
Mario Gomez to score first against FC Basel @ [3.8]
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105068576&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=105068584&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013

Did CSKA Moscow's late equaliser in Russia merely delay the inevitable, or can they stun Real Madrid at the Bernabeu? Here's the Opta take on things......

Inter's first win in ten away to Chievo on Friday prompted tears of joy from Claudio Ranieri. Will there be even wilder celebrations against Marseille?...

Bayern Munich's fierce European home record suggests that this round-of-16 tie is far from finished despite FC Basel's shock first-leg triumph......

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Golf Betting: Markets are over-reacting to early season form

/ Paul Krishnamurty / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jason Day at 37-1? It would be rude not to!

"Unlike Abu Dhabi, which played tougher than usual and rewarded accuracy over power, Doha GC has a reputation for favouring the biggest hitters. Day is more than simply a bomber, but is certainly seen to best effect on such open layouts."

Beware early-season judgements and punish over-reacting layers is Paul Krishnamurty's message this week, noting huge prices available on two huge talents - Jason Day and Gary Woodland - either side of the Atlantic

One feature of the new golf order, where both tours boast unprecedented strength in depth, is a market that repeatedly over-reacts to the most recent result. The 2012 season is only three weeks old. Most top players have played only once and could be forgiven for using it as an opportunity to shake off any winter rust. Hardly a time, then, to be drawing strong conclusions or writing people off. Yet in both of this week's events, there is at least one example of a top-class player available at vastly inflated odds compared to their seasonal debut.

First, Jason Day in the Qatar Masters. Here is a player widely tipped to sweep all before him. He was runner-up on both his Masters and US Open debuts last year - an unprecedented achievement in majors that generally reward experience. He's ranked tenth in the world already, placing him third best in this company. Before last week's Abu Dhabi Championship, against a stronger line-up, he was amongst the leading handful in the betting. Yet as a consequence of missing one cut, Day is relegated to 11th place in the betting at [38.0], nearly four times the odds of the favourite.

Such a reaction makes even less sense given the nature of this course, which should be ideal. Unlike Abu Dhabi, which played tougher than usual and rewarded accuracy over power, Doha GC has a reputation for favouring the biggest hitters. It is no coincidence that huge, wild-hitting Alvaro Quiros has form figures of 2/2/1 here. Day is more than simply a bomber, but is certainly seen to best effect on such open layouts. Historically, the two key stats here have been driving distance and putting average, and according to the excellent course compatibility stats at www.tour-tips.com, Jason ranks second and fourth in those categories.

It's a similar story in the US, where Gary Woodland is enormous at [60.0] to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Again, we have a vast bank of course form to study at Scottsdale, which suggest Gary has the credentials to thrive. Scottsdale isn't so much of a big-hitters track, but bombers have often taken it apart. For instance JB Holmes, who usually reserves his best for courses that reward his power game, has won this title twice. A further clue is birdie average, as Scottsdale is the type of risk-reward layout where frequent birdies are essential to offset the inevitable bogies. Year in, year out, the leaderboard reflects those stats.

Woodland scores very well on both counts, ranking fifth for driving distance amongst this lot, and 13th for birdies over the past 12 months. More significant than any performance stats, however, is the fact Woodland finished fifth here last year, on one of his earliest PGA Tour starts. On that basis, Scottsdale is more suitable than the Hawaii track where he flopped first time out, or the quirky Torrey Pines, where he failed last week for the second year running.

Gary really improved as that rookie season wore on, missing only one cut after May, registering top-25s in all four majors, winning his maiden title and landing the World Cup alongside Matt Kuchar. Both myself and Dan Geraghty have marked him as one of the players to follow in 2012. Keep the faith. Odds like this week's [60.0] will soon be a thing of the past.

Recommended Bets
Qatar Masters
Back Jason Day to win @ [38.0]
Back Jason Day for top-five finish @ [9.0]

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Back Gary Woodland to win @ [60.0]
Back Gary Woodland for top-five finish @ [11.0]

It's going to be a blustery week in Qatar, so who has the best draw? And what does it take to win around Doha? Read Steve's event preview here......

Beware early-season judgements and punish over-reacting layers is Paul Krishnamurty's message this week, noting huge prices available on two huge talents - Jason Day and Gary Woodland - either side of the Atlantic...

Ignore Peter Hanson's final round collapse in Abu Dhabi says Mike Norman, the Swede is still playing well and is one of this week's Form Guide's three suggested players....

As if there wasn't enough drama in Abu Dhabi, with Robert Rock holding Tiger Woods and Co at bay, last night's Farmers Insurance Open produced an unbelievable finish......

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Burkina Faso v Angola: Traore and co. to gain early advantage

African Cup Of Nations / James Eastham / 21 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Marseille midfielder Charle Kabore is one of several outstanding Burkina Faso internationals

"For Burkina Faso, winger Jonathan Pitroipa is a joy to watch, all balance, pace and high-speed dribbling ability. And Auxerre's Alain Traore's long-range shooting ability is the equal of anyone in the French league."

James Eastham expects tournament dark horses Burkina Faso to make a winning start against Angola on Sunday.

Burkina Faso v Sudan, KO 19:00 GMT, Eurosport 2, Match Odds: Burkina Faso 2.66, Angola, 3.05, Draw 3.05.

Angola have a better long-term and recent record at this tournament but the market suggests - rightly, in my view - that Burkina Faso are the likelier of the two to follow group favourites Ivory Coast into the quarter-finals.

With the Ivorians runaway jollies for not only the group but also the tournament, and Sudan [17.0] outsiders to win the pool, this match is crucial as the winners will take a massive step towards qualifying for the knock-out stage. It is therefore an immense test of nerve and character as well as talent as there is little room for error in a match that's likely to decide the tournament fate of both teams.

Burkina Faso (already tipped by Jack Houghton as potential tournament winners) have the better squad. The 23-man party coach Paulo Duarte has named for the finals includes a number of players that arrive at the finals with excellent credentials. Centre-half Bakary Kone, playing in France's third division for Guingamp 12 months ago, has adapted remarkably well to top-flight and Champions League football since joining Lyon five months ago; attacking midfielder Alain Traore's long-range shooting ability is the equal of anyone in the French league; and Rennes winger Jonathan Pitroipa (you can read an excellent interview with him here) is a joy to watch, all balance, pace and high-speed dribbling ability. Centre-forward Moumouni Dagano scored 12 goals in Burkina Faso's 2010 World Cup qualifying campaign.

Angola's squad comprises less appealing names. European football followers will be familiar Manucho (Real Valladolid) and Flavio (Lierse), among others, but I would rather back Burkina's burgeoning talents than men whose best days may be behind them.

My selection is Burkina Faso at [2.66] rather than Angola at [3.05]. I'd also rather back over 2.5 goals at [2.72] than unders at [1.55]. The general view of opening-round games is they're tight, low-scoring affairs, but 16 of the last 31 (52%) opening games for countries at this tournament, stretching back to 2004, have featured three goals or more.

Best Bet: Burkina Faso to beat Angola @ [2.66]
Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [2.72]

* James Eastham's tips for betting.betfair.com made a profit at both the 2010 World Cup and 2011 Copa America

James Eastham believes Ivory Coast will avoid any slip-ups against rank outsiders Sudan on Sunday afternoon....

Jonathan Wilson returns with his first African Cup of Nations diary of 2012 as he weighs up the chances of two of the tournament minnows......

Tobias Gourlay expects his pre-tournament picks, the Lions of Senegal, to start as he hopes they will go on against Zambia this weekend...

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Haye v Klitschko: Early odds favour the Ukrainian

Boxing Betting / Joe Dyer / 07 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

David Haye's talking already

"Haye can be backed at [2.6] to win the bout."

Finally, the heavyweight division is giving us a fight we can't want to see - David Haye v Wladimir Klitschko

Forget the hype - this really is the fight the boxing world wants to see.

After months of wrangling, David Haye and Wladimir Klitschko have finally agreed to get it on in a winner takes all heavyweight showdown.

And the layers make the Ukrainian, who is bigger and has a longer reach, favourite to be the last man standing at around [1.56].

The English challenger has commenced the smack talk already, boasting of 'violently' knocking his opponent out.

Betfair's markets are still developing but you can currently back Haye at [2.6] to simply win the bout.

Finally, the heavyweight division is giving us a fight we can't want to see - David Haye v Wladimir Klitschko...

In most sports who is the undisputed champion is pretty clear to all and fixtures have to be kept to. Not so in boxing as David Haye is finding out, says Ralph Ellis....

These two can both throw a tasty punch so their Vegtas showdown may come down to an old-fashioned tear-up, says Alex Steedman...

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Cheltenham 2011: An early look at the Gold Cup

Events / Alex Steedman / 23 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Imperial Commander on his way to winning the 2010 Gold Cup

"Form, sense, age and logic say forget it but if Kauto triumphs expect scenes like never before."

Does Kauto have one last great race in him? Can Denman finish an up and down few years by reclaiming his crown? Can Imperial Commander win consecutive Gold Cups? Alex Steedman assesses the field for the biggest race of the Cheltenham Festival....

In March 2007, the month Kauto Star was sprinting away from a crowded pack to land the first of his two Cheltenham Gold Cups, the BBC released a DVD of luminaries such as Bill Oddie and Lesley Garrett discovering their past during the hit series Who do you think you are? In recent months racing fans have been concerned less with previous and more with the present in regard to this year's Gold Cup contenders. The question of them is; 'Who are you now?"

At 11-years-old both Kauto Star and Denman appear in the dusk of sparkling careers but do the former Champs have one last great fight in them?

Denman's monumental weight-carrying third place in the Hennessy has him solid in the market though not apparently convincing at [7.8]. The 2008 Gold Cup winner has been on one hell of a Bill & Ted in a two year period that has seen him treated for a fibrillating heart, fall at Aintree, unseat the 15 times Champion jockey, undertake breathing surgery again and in between all of that, win a second Hennessy under 11-12 and take silver in the last Gold Cup. Never out of the money at Cheltenham, Denman's form at the festival reads 2/1/1/2/2 which includes a win and two seconds in the big one. Would you lay him for a place at (2.68)?

Kauto Star's [8.6] position in the discussion is a little more delicate. Like mega stars of the past such as Ali or Frank Sinatra, all that he has done before casts a possessive shadow over where he is now. Falling when looking beaten last year and stretching the legs at Down Royal is not the stuff punters are looking for, nor is that unusual third in the King George. But having suffered bleeding and infection around Christmas, Kautoholics among us have the incentive to believe he has one last great performance in him. Remember, it is seven long years since Kauto last failed to finish first, second or third when completing and Ruby is back. Form, sense, age and logic say forget it but remember Ali hurrahed against Spinks and Frank wowed New York one last time; if it happens, expect scenes like never before.

Imperial Commander's position as favourite is assured at [5.4] but his absence has not made punters fond of him. Given the doubts or questions surrounding almost all of his rivals, the truth is he should be shorter in the market. Cut and injured when winning the Betfair Chase in November, the reigning champ was forced to miss the King George but that is the only deviation from last season's schedule. I take that as positive. The Commander won on his point-to-point and 'bumper' debuts and scored reappearance wins in 2007, 08 and 10 while only a nose separated him and Kauto in 09. With five wins from six Cheltenham chase starts, he is made for this place and this race. He is probably close to who he was last year and that ought to be enough.

Of all the main protagonists, Diamond Harry and Long Run have the most upwardly mobile CV's. Diamond Harry [10.5] has to improve around a stone which is easily conceivable and though he disappointed in the RSA, his hurdles form round Cheltenham is strong. He has the profile you look for and hails from a yard with craft yet there is something of the work in progress about him and this may come a year too soon.

Long Run (7.4) has achieved a great deal in double quick time over here yet he is harshly considered by both pundits and punters alike. In five British runs the French gelding has won two Grade 1's and though finishing third in an RSA and a Paddy Power is somehow labelled as not Cheltenham material. My beef was with his jumping technique but that is improving as he acclimatises and I think Long Run is a horse who is simply finding himself, just like Bill Oddie and Lesley Garrett. Remember the Henderson star is still only six-years-old. Stamina is not a given for Liberthine's half-brother but if he stays, Long Run will be a major threat to the favourite.

It may unfold that Long Run or Kauto are the descendants of Cornish field dwellers or that Denman's great, great, great grandfather was a circus clown carrier but I'm inclined to think that most recent Gold Cup history is what matters here. He may be rubbing shoulders with equine Gods of his time but come the day, Imperial Commander can underline why he will be remembered with interest in centuries to come.

Does Kauto have one last great race in him? Can Denman finish an up and down few years by reclaiming his crown? Can Imperial Commander win consecutive Gold Cups? Alex Steedman assesses the field for the biggest race of the Cheltenham Festival.......

Our resident blogger Simon Rowlands points out the shortcomings of some types of conventional trends analysis......

A legend that always bounces back - that's the Betfair Contrarian's assessment of Kauto Star as he explains why you should back Paul Nicholl's two-time Gold Cup winner for more Cheltenham glory in 2011......

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