Premier League
/ Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 14 June 2011 / Leave a Comment
Roberto Martinez traded very short to be Next Villa Manager before deciding to stay on as Wigan boss
"But one strategy that works well in the long run is to lay runners who are trading at short prices in the market. The more runners you can lay at even money or below, the better, as you’ll end up green on all or almost all of the field."
There are a handful of Next Manager markets currently up on Betfair and they can prove to be very profitable. But there's plenty to know about them before you dive in. Here's everything you wanted to know about Next Manager markets but were afraid to ask.
Copa America stars and Under-21 starlets aside, most Premier League players have their feet up on some beach, occasionally leaving the sandy shores for the odd Pina Colada or quick game of Pro Evolution, which they'd no doubt call "pre-season training". But that's not to say there aren't other opportunities as a Betfair punter to get involved in Premier League markets over the summer months. And few are as exciting and volatile as Betfair's Next Manager markets. But beware, because they're very specialised and unique markets and you should know a bit more about how they actually work before getting involved. Here are the Top Five Most Frequently Asked Questions.
Why some vacancies but not others?
As a general rule, Betfair only offers next Manager markets when a Premier League managerial vacancy is open. An exception to this would be if the national manager's job for one of the Home Nations became vacant. Another exception is the Next Manchester United Manager market, Betfair's oldest market still on site. That market went up when Sir Alex Ferguson announced his retirement at the end of the 2001/2 season, only to make a sensational U-turn. It's no good to anyone for a market to be up for years without a definitive date as to when it will be settled so after that incident, Betfair has only ever opened a Next Manager market once a manager has actually left his position. The reason Betfair almost never offers Next Manager markets outside of the Premier League is one of liquidity. A PL managerial vacancy is debated extensively in the media, on forums and on phone-ins so would-be punters always have plenty to go on before deciding how to bet. That's not always the case with clubs below Premier League level.
Who's in the market?
When a new Next Manager market goes up, Betfair will add 10 or 15 runners who are the most likely to get the job at that point in time. If new candidates are being discussed in the media, Betfair will add them to the market. Customers can request for certain runners to be added to the market but it's at Betfair's discretion as to whether they add them or not and the criteria is primarily: are they realistic candidates? If the Tottenham job became available and you requested for Carlo Ancelotti to be added, he probably would be. But if you requested for Sir Bobby Charlton to be added, he probably wouldn't.
How do you define next Manager?
Don't start punting away before you know what you're actually betting on. Read the grey text (the explanation under the "Rules" tab) next to the market to see how Betfair defines the "Next Manager" - it may not necessarily be how you'd define it. If necessary, Betfair will be in contact with the club in question for clarification as how they're defining the role being undertaken by any given individual.
How can I protect myself from being too slow on the button?
If you leave unmatched bets up, you have to be prepared for the eventuality that someone may take advantage of knowing about some news before you do. If you had left an unmatched back up on Roberto Martinez in the Next Villa manager market at the start of this week at a shortish price, it's not surprising that someone would want to lay you that bet as soon as Martinez announced he was staying at Wigan. That's part of the game so be careful about leaving bets up with you're not constantly monitoring the news.
How do I make money from all this?
If there was a fool-proof rule we'd all be sitting beside those Premier League footballers on the beach counting our millions; except we'd all look pretty fat compared to them! But one strategy that works well in the long run is to lay runners who are trading at short prices in the market. The more runners you can lay at even money or below, the better, as you'll end up green on all or almost all of the field. Runners' prices come in based on Media speculation and gossip but think about all the relevant factors before jumping on the bandwagon and assuming it's a done deal.
Take Alex McLeish in the Next Villa manager market, currently the [1.96] jolly and ask yourself the following questions. Have Villa made official contact with him? How would the fans react to the potential appointment of a manager who has just come from their bitter rivals? Does he have the right profile for the job? Could Villa match his wage demands? Would McLeish be happy to take the job in light of Villa's transfer policy? What is Villa's transfer policy? Would recruiting a manager who has just seen his side relegated be seen as a positive, forward step for a club like Villa? Once you've answered all these questions, answer this one: should he really be odds-on to get the job?!
Despite six trophyless seasons, Arsene Wenger remains the most successful manager in Arsenal's history. However, there is a risk that supporters will force him out....
Kenny Dalglish has already brought one midfielder to Anfield this summer but, if reports are to be believed, that won't end his interest in Charlie Adam....
Judging by his position as favourite for the Aston Villa job, Alex McLeish appears set to take charge of his former employers' biggest rivals, an idea that rarely ends well......
Play Casino & Poker here
