Champions League: Ruthless Bayern Munich to finish off Arsenal

"So dominant have Bayern been in the Champions League in the current campaign that they have been winning both at half-time and full-time in five of their last seven matches in the competition. Back them to do the same on Wednesday at 2.89/5."

Bayern Munich will show Arsenal no mercy despite their 3-1 advantage from the first leg, while Porto's defensive resolve will mean a low scoring encounter at Malaga, says European football expert James Horncastle as he previews Wednesday night's Champions League games

Bayern Munich v Arsenal
Kick Off: 19:45
TV: Live on Sky Sports 2

"It will be difficult, but let's try to make the impossible, possible," Arsenal manager Arsene Wenger said, after his side's 3-1 defeat to Bayern Munich at the Emirates last month in the first leg of their last 16 Champions League tie. 

Just how difficult is clear from the history of this competition. Since the European Cup began only seven teams have managed to successfully overturn a first leg defeat at home. They are Milan in 1955, Ajax in 1969, Nottingham Forest in 1980, Steaua Bucharest in 1994, Ajax once again in 1996 and Inter in 2011. 

It's a staggeringly low number and, as if any further confirmation were needed, amply demonstrates the size of the task facing Arsenal at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday night. The Exchange understandably has them at 38.037/1 to qualify. 

Arsenal must hope for the kind of blackout Bayern suffered in October when they lost 3-1 to BATE Borisov, a result that looks like an aberration within the context of the rest of their record-breaking season. 

It did look for a while as though they might slip up on Saturday. Twice Bayern fell behind at home to Fortuna Dusseldorf. And if Wenger and his players were watching, which seems likely given they didn't play this weekend and are well-rested for the trip to Munich, then they would have been encouraged right up until the 74th minute. For that's when Franck Ribery equalised again and Dusseldorf's belief in an unlikely win ended. Jerome Boateng would get the winner four minutes from time to seal Bayern's fifteenth straight victory.

It all must have been pretty soul-destroying for those Arsenal players who did perhaps tune in. This Bayern, it seems, are never beaten. 

"Last season we would have lost this kind of match," goalkeeper Manuel Neuer said. "Our cohesion is exceptional." 

That doesn't bode well for Arsenal who wish to replicate the second leg showing they put on against Milan this time last season when they won 3-0 at the Emirates and improbably threatened to take the tie to extra-time after a 4-0 first leg defeat at San Siro. Bayern, as Neuer alluded to, have a resilience about them, however, a mental strength that makes the prospect of this happening distinctly unlikely. 

They've lost just once at home all season and have never conceded more than two in a game. So dominant have they been in the Champions League in the current campaign that they have been winning both at half-time and full-time in five of their last seven matches in the competition. Back them to do the same on Wednesday at 2.89/5. 

Recommended Bet: Bayern Munich/Bayern Munich in the HT/FT market at 2.89/5

Malaga v Porto
Kick Off: 19:45
TV: Live on Sky Sports 4

Elsewhere in Europe things are much more delicately poised between Malaga and Porto. This is certainly the more intriguing of Wednesday night's ties. Porto take a 1-0 lead to the Rosaleda and might be made to regret not making more of the possession they had at the Dragao. Joao Moutinho's goal, the one that separates them, should have been ruled out for offside too. 

"Our first goal was to win. Our second goal was not to concede," Porto coach Vitor Pereira said after the first leg. "But after the great quality match that we played from the first to the last minute, I think we deserved a second goal. I'm not completely satisfied in that we couldn't get a goal to make it 2-0; that would have been a fairer reflection of what happened on the pitch."

Alas, it wasn't to be and Malaga were let off the hook. "The scoreline is one we can turn around," insisted coach Manuel Pellegrini. "Returning to our own stadium we will be confident of reversing the situation."

Malaga have yet to lose at home in this their maiden Champions League campaign. Their record stands at three wins and one draw.  

That said, they haven't won any of their last four games in all competitions, scoring just the once. Their potent left-hand side, crucial to the team's balance, is no longer what it once was following the sale of Nacho Monreal to Arsenal and the injury suffered by Eliseu.

Attacking isn't coming as easy as did earlier in the season. In Pellegrini's words Malaga "played very badly offensively" in Oporto. "We wanted to be offensive," he said, "but Porto wouldn't allow us to be." 

Star players Isco and Joaquin were rested at the weekend. Porto, however, will trust in their ability to go to the Rosaleda, get an away goal and preserve their advantage. They've kept seven clean sheets from nine Champions League matches this season and can be backed to record another one at 3.412/5. Under 1.5 goals also has an attraction at 3.259/4.

Recommended Bet: Under 1.5 Goals at 3.259/4

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Three trophies still up for grabs as Bayern Munich return to form

German Football / Michael Lintorn / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Arjen Robben scored a penalty-aided hat-trick at Hertha Berlin on Saturday

"Bayern Munich already showed at the start of this season, when winning ten straight games and keeping a dozen clean sheets, that once momentum is on their side, anything is possible."

After months of poor results, criticism of coach Jupp Heynckes, underperformance by stars and even a brief Mario Gomez goal drought, Bayern Munich are back.

And fittingly for a club who flit between brilliance and ineptitude, incapable of locating a middle ground, their revival has been more sudden and spectacular than anyone could have predicted, their last three matches won by an aggregate scoreline of 20-1. Naturally, they failed to score in three of the four prior to that.

The Bavarian giants already showed at the start of this season, when winning ten straight games and keeping a dozen clean sheets, that once momentum is on their side, anything is possible, so will hope that their recent resurgence is occurring with precision timing.

A first treble in their history remains a possibility, albeit an unlikely one given the run that reigning Bundesliga champions and current leaders Borussia Dortmund are on as they bid to become the first team besides Bayern to finish top twice in a row since they last did it in 1995-96.

Bayern's thrashings of Hoffenheim and Hertha Berlin saw the gap closed from seven to five points, but with just eight fixtures to play and Dortmund unbeaten in 20, they are [2.62] to dethrone Jurgen Klopp's ensemble, who look great value at [1.65].

The Champions League on the other hand feels very much obtainable at [7.4] following a quarter-final pairing with Marseille, who are somehow in the final eight despite a fairly calamitous campaign.

The 1992-93 winners are ninth in Ligue 1 and had lost six successive encounters in all competitions before perhaps their most undignified defeat yet on Tuesday away to third-tier relegation battlers Quevilly after extra-time in the Coupe de la France.

On that sort of form, it is arguably an even less complicated tie than Real Madrid's with APOEL, and that quartet are on a semi-final collision course, guaranteed to avoid Barcelona until the final.

For now though, Bayern's attention will be focussed on Wednesday's domestic cup semi-final away to Borussia Monchengladbach, who are third in the Bundesliga and did the double over their visitors.

Arjen Robben, who is in discussions about a new deal, has warned fans not to expect another dominant victory like the Hoffenheim and Hertha ones. Given their struggles against Gladbach this term, it might instead prove wise to lay them for 90-minute success at [1.76].

Currently five points clear of Bayern Munich at the top of the Bundesliga, Borussia Dortmund face Werder Bremen this weekend. Michael Cox assesses the tactical battle....

Our Bundesliga expert Kevin Hatchard casts his eye over three of the division's bottom four this week, starting with a Kaiserslautern side looking for their first league win in five months....

Bayer Leverkusen were shredded by a Lionel Messi-inspired Barcelona in midweek, and Kevin Hatchard believes Wolfsburg may suffer a Bayer backlash this weekend....

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Home And Away: 1860 Munich to outclass Erzgebirge

Daily Tipping / Jonno Turner / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

1860 Munich were unbeaten in nine before tasting defeat last time out

Jonno Turner is backing two capital clubs to triumph this evening, one in Germany and another in England...

I keep hearing about Cheltenham this and Cheltenham that. Yes, they're having a decent season in League Two, but why is everyone suddenly betting on them?

Only kidding. I'm looking out for Lunch Hour today - 12-1. My wife told me this morning that she is leaving (and taking the dog) due to my obsession with horse racing...and they're off!

And we're off! To Germany in fact for our first tip of the day, and in-form 1860 Munich travel to Erzgebirge looking to make amends for a slip up at the weekend which saw their first loss for ten games.

Reiner Maurer's side currently sit sixth in the 2. Bundesliga and have secured five wins from their last seven in the league.

They are extremely hard to beat at the Allianz Arena, but have also been chalking up the results on their travels, and have lost only once in their last six on the road.

And this evening they visit Erzgebirge, who have won just once in nine league games, a run which has seen them to 13th in the table, just two points shy of the relegation play-out place.

In the bigger picture, Karsten Baumann's side have won just three of their last 17 home games, and are without a clean sheet on their own patch in six outings.

1860 Munich have lost just once to Erzgebirge in their last seven meetings, and I think that, following last weekend's loss, they will get their season back on track today.

Bet 1: 1860 Munich (AWAY) to win @ [2.68]

Over to Stamford Bridge for our next pick, as Chelsea welcome Napoli to Stamford Bridge for the second leg of their Champions League encounter.

The Londoners lost the reverse fixture 3-1, giving themselves a real uphill struggle in this game, but a lot has changed since then.

The axe of Roman Abramovich has struck once again, and Andre Villas-Boas is no more. The hosts will be led into this game by Roberto Di Matteo, and the Italian has done well in the outings he has overseen so far.

Two wins from his first two games, albeit against Birmingham and Stoke, have arrested a slump which threatened to end Chelsea's season by mid-March. And Di Matteo will now have his eye on reversing this scoreline as Napoli travel to London.

For all the talk of a crisis, Chelsea have lost just once in their last ten at the Bridge, and have kept an impressive four clean sheets in their last six on their home patch.

And three wins from three in this competition as hosts will give them confidence, especially the manner in which they won those, with 10 goals scored and none conceded.

Napoli have enjoyed an impressive campaign thus far, but their away form does leave a lot to be desired, and they go into this game having won just two of their last six away from the Stadio San Paolo. And the visitors have only managed one win in three away games in this competition.

This is a massive task for the home side - and I fancy a great game this evening.

Bet 2: Chelsea (HOME) to win @ [1.8]

Napoli travel to Chelsea tonight with a 3-1 advantagein the second leg of their Champions League last 16 tie. The home side are odds-on to win the match but they are in disarray and Paul Robinson thinks they will struggle....

It's the Merseyside derby tonight in what promises to be an enthralling encounter. Under 2.5 goals is odds-on and the statistics do point to it being a low scoring affair, but in-form Paul Robinson thinks the formbook will be turned...

Jonno Turner is backing Reading to charge into the Championship's top two with a win at Doncaster, and foresees a return to form for League Two promotion hopefuls Crawley......

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Bayern Munich vs. FC Basel: What the stats say

Champions League / Soccer Widow / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Basel will defend a 1-0 lead when they travel to Bayern Munich on Tuesday

"On paper, this game looks likely to be decided in Bayern’s favour, although whether they can muster the required two goal margin of victory to avoid extra-time or an away-goals defeat is debatable."

Bayern Munich have to overturn a one goal deficit if they are to progress further in this season's Champions League. Soccer Widow checks out the statistics and finds a selection of 'value' bets...

Coincidence has dictated that exactly a year ago this week Bayern Munich were lining up a vital midweek Champions League match against Inter Milan three days after a comfortable 6-0 Bundesliga win at home to Hamburg. This time around, the Champions League match is of equal significance with the Bavarians looking to overturn a 0-1 deficit at home to FC Basel, an encounter which again comes three days after a six goal margin of victory in the Bundesliga, in Saturday's 7-1 drubbing of Hoffenheim at the Allianz Arena.

Of course, Bayern defeated Basel 3-0 in the group stages of the competition last season, but the Swiss team are now a different animal and have this season been on an incredible run of form, culminating in just one defeat on the road, and that was almost seven months ago on 20 August, 2011, 3-1 away to Luzern in the Swiss Super League.

Equally impressive is Bayern's formidable home form, with 16 victories and two defeats in all competitions this season. This is a clash that is eagerly awaited by both sets of fans.

Bayern have to win the tie by at least a two goal margin to progress and this is a feat they have accomplished in 22 of their last 30 home games. Basel's last 30 away games show defeats by at least a two goal margin only four times (as mentioned, just one of these occasions being this season).

Statistics in a little more detail:

Bayern Munich's last 30 home games (all competitions):

· Full time: 25 wins (83.3%), no draws (0%), five defeats (16.7%)
· Last six home results (most recent first): W-W-W-W-W-W
· Bayern winning by a margin of two goals or more: 22 times (73.3%)
· Bayern winning to nil: 17 times (56.7%)
· Half-time/Full-time: Away/Away = twice (6.7%)

FC Basel's last 30 away games (all competitions)

· Full time: 12 wins (40%), 13 draws (43.3%), 5 defeats (16.7%)
· Last six away results (most recent first): W-D-D-D-W-W
· Losing by a two goal margin or more: four times (13.3%)
· Losing without scoring: twice (6.7%)
· Half-time/Full-time: Basel/Basel = 9 times (30%)

Summary:

On paper, this game looks likely to be decided in Bayern's favour, although whether they can muster the required two goal margin of victory to avoid extra-time or an away-goals defeat is debatable. The only score-line that will take the match into extra-time is of course 1-0 to Bayern (available to back at [11.0]), but the statistics show that this score-line has a probability of only 1.67%, but laying 1-0, whilst carrying 'value' of 83.9%, is probably too high a risk at odds of [10.5].

The more interesting outlook here is in the To Qualify market, where Bayern's current price of [1.45] is more than 60% under-valued, so the wise money should be on the lay bet or indeed, backing FC Basel to qualify at [3.1], a price that represents 'value' of almost 175%.

Other Value Bet Recommendations:

· Back Bayern Win to Nil: 'No' (odds [2.28], 'true' odds [3.16], value 40.7%, probability: 68.33%)

· Lay Bayern Clean Sheet: 'Yes' (odds [2.12], 'true' odds [3.0], value 50%, probability: 67.67%)

· Back Half-time/Full-time: Basel/Basel (odds [32.0], 'true' odds [5.45], value 595.9%, probability: 18.3%)

Although the last of these recommendations is a long-shot with a probability of only 18.3%, Soccer Widow is including it because of the enormity of the 'value' attached. Having seen Basel defeat Manchester United at the end of both halves of the group match in Switzerland, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that lightning could strike again in Germany. Perhaps then it is worthy of a small flutter?

Marseille were in fantastic form when these two clubs last met, but four straight defeats and a recent win for Inter means Mike Norman is backing the Italians to progress further....

Despite being a goal down, Mike Norman believes home advantage should enable Bayern Munich to ease past FC Basel and progress to the quarter finals of the Champions League....

Michael Lintorn has looked over the Opta stats and found reasons for Bayern Munich fans to be optimistic, but very few positives omens for Inter......

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Opta Stats: Early goals for Bayern Munich, none at all for Inter

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Until last week, it looked like Mario Gomez would challenge Lionel Messi to be Champions League top scorer

"Mario Gomez has scored 14 goals in his last 12 Champions League appearances (excluding qualifiers)."

Michael Lintorn has looked over the Opta stats and found reasons for Bayern Munich fans to be optimistic, but very few positives omens for Inter...

Bayern Munich v FC Basel

Nine of Bayern's 11 goals have been netted in the first half, the highest proportion in the Champions League this season (82%)
This stat suggests that the chunky odds usually offered on the first half producing more goals than the second 45 are well worth taking. Further support for such a wager is provided by the fact that nine of the 13 goals at the Allianz Arena in the Champions League this season have come before the break.

Mario Gomez has scored 14 goals in his last 12 Champions League appearances (excluding qualifiers)
And the Bundesliga's top scorer fired three past Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on Saturday to draw a line under a rare four-game drought, the first of those coming as early as the fifth minute. The German international grabbed the opener in two of his side's three home encounters in the group stage.

Inter v Marseille

Marseille have never scored more than once in their 15 encounters against Italian opposition in Europe (excluding Intertoto Cup)
This is one of several under 2.5 goals indicators, another one being that Marseille have the worst shooting accuracy figure of any team in the last 16, with just 37% of their efforts hitting the target. Their last six matches have all featured two goals or fewer, as have four of Inter's last half-dozen.

Marseille have kept nine clean sheets in their last 13 Champions League games
Inter have lost their last three clashes with Didier Deschamps' men 1-0, and their chances of finally scoring against them this time aren't great given that they have been shut out in seven of their last ten fixtures in all competitions. They haven't struck in the first 70 minutes of any of their last seven.

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Mario Gomez to score first against FC Basel @ [3.8]
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Opta Stats: Bayern Munich v FC Basel

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Bayern Munich are favourites to qualify despite FC Basel's first-leg success

Bayern Munich's fierce European home record suggests that this round-of-16 tie is far from finished despite FC Basel's shock first-leg triumph...

Bayern had won the first four meetings between these two sides before Basel won the first leg 1-0.

Basel are unbeaten in four Champions League games (one draw followed by three consecutive wins), thus setting a new club record.

Bayern have won ten of their last 11 Champions League home matches.

In the first leg, Basel kept a clean sheet for the first time in this Champions League season, they had been the only team to reach the last 16 without a clean sheet.

Bayern have never lost both legs of a knockout round in the European Cup/Champions League.

Basel are the first Swiss side to reach the knockout stage in the Champions League era.

Bayern's Franck Ribery and Basel's Xherdan Shaqiri have been fouled more often than any other players in this season's Champions League (23 times each).

Nine of Bayern's 11 goals have been netted in the first half, the highest proportion in the Champions League this season (82%).

The first-leg win was Basel's first win against German opposition in Europe (two draws, four defeats).

Basel have lost just one of their last eight matches in Europe, winning each of the last three.

Alexander Frei has netted eight goals in just 12 Champions League appearances (excluding qualifiers).

Mario Gomez has scored 14 goals in his last 12 Champions League appearances (excluding qualifiers).

Michael Lintorn has looked over the Opta stats and found reasons for Bayern Munich fans to be optimistic, but very few positives omens for Inter......

Did CSKA Moscow's late equaliser in Russia merely delay the inevitable, or can they stun Real Madrid at the Bernabeu? Here's the Opta take on things......

Inter's first win in ten away to Chievo on Friday prompted tears of joy from Claudio Ranieri. Will there be even wilder celebrations against Marseille?...

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Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich Bets: Heynckes's boys underpriced again

German Football / Soccer Widow / 02 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Underperformers. Neither Franck Ribery nor Arjen Robben have been at their best this season.

"Of its last 25 Bundesliga away games, Bayern has won only 40% and this season alone is not much better at only a 45% win ratio. Whoever identified this trend early and decided to lay Bayern away from home on a regular basis, has definitely cashed in."

Soccer Widow explains why the stats suggest Bayern Munich carry on being a false price on their travels and why their layers have been having one field day after another. This is a big match right here and it's thrown up another false price on a Bayern clean sheet.

Although Bayern goes into this match looking for its 900th victory in Bundesliga 1, the German press continues to produce copious amounts of copy analysing the Bavarian team's so called 'away curse', which has seen the team's performances on the road deteriorate significantly.

Of its last 25 Bundesliga away games, Bayern has won only 40% and this season alone is not much better at only a 45% win ratio. Whoever identified this trend early and decided to lay Bayern away from home on a regular basis, has definitely cashed in, especially as Bayern's reputation usually sees its odds in away matches vastly under-priced and, therefore, a very attractive lay proposition.

Bayern's season has been blighted with behind-the-scenes turmoil, a change of manager, and injuries to key players, with midfielder Bastian Schweinsteiger again missing for Saturday's match. When he plays, Bayern looks composed, but when he is absent, there is definite fragility in the team.

For all of their apparent shortcomings, Bayern do sit in 2nd place in the league table and will play a newly resurgent Leverkusen team up to the lofty heights of 5th, following back-to-back victories. The talking point of this match is of course the fact that Bayern's new manager, Jupp Heynckes, was tempted away from Leverkusen but this should have no real effect on the usual ice-cold mentality of German teams in general and their mature and professional attitude towards big occasions.

Statistics related to the final value bet recommendations:

Head-to-Head (Leverkusen home, Bayern Munich away, 14 matches since 1998, in all competitions):

•Full time: four Leverkusen wins (28.6%); three draws (21.4%); seven Bayern wins (50%)
•Full time: last six results (most recent first): D-D-H-A-A-A
•Bayern Munich Clean Sheet: twice (21.4%)
•Over 1.5 Goals: 12 times (85.7%)
•Goal numbers in the last six of these fixtures (most recent first): 2-2-6-2-1-5

Bayer Leverkusen's last 25 Bundesliga 1 home games:

•Full time: 13 wins (52%); seven draws (28%); five defeats (20%)
•Full time: last six results (most recent first): H-D-H-A-H-D
•Away team clean sheet: four times (16%)
•Over 1.5 Goals: 21 times (84%)
•Goal numbers in the last six home matches (most recent first): 5-4-5-3-2-4
Bayern Munich's last 25 Bundesliga 1 away games:
•Full time: 10 wins (40%); nine draws (36%); six defeats (24%)
•Full time: last six results (most recent first): D-D-H-A-H-A
•Bayern Munich clean sheet: six times (24%)
•Over 1.5 Goals: 21 times (84%)
•Goal numbers in the last six matches (most recent first): 0-2-4-3-5-3

Summary:

Although Bayern have not lost to Leverkusen in their last 14 Bundesliga encounters (comprising 11 wins and three draws), Leverkusen's last victory against Germany's most celebrated team was not so long ago. In March 2009, Bayern lost 2:4 to Leverkusen in the DFB-Pokal quarter final in Düsseldorf. Taking the head-to-head performance as well as the last 25 matches into consideration, statistically speaking, Leverkusen's chances of winning this match are not so bad and, the price of the home win holds a mathematical advantage or 'edge'.

How the market arrived at odds of [3.05] for laying 'Bayern Clean Sheet' is a mystery to me as the statistics show Leverkusen is not short of goals at home and Bayern is always vulnerable to concede away from home. The market odds are therefore around 58% below their mathematical value, which represents a great lay bet.

Other Betting recommendations with good value:

•Back Leverkusen to win (odds: [5.0], 'true odds': 3.0, value 40%, probability: 33.3%)

•Back 'Over 1.5 Goals' (odds: [1.28], true odds: 1.18, value 50%, probability: 85%)

Borussia Monchengladbach's improbable bid for the Bundesliga title stuttered against Hamburg, but Kevin Hatchard's backing them to return to winning ways this weekend....

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Bundesliga Betting: Do Bayern Munich offer any value at their current price?

German Football / Matthew Walton / 25 January 2012 / 1 Comments

Robert Lewandowki's goals can keep Dortmund in the title race

"If you want to back Bayern at a short price, fine, but you might have a job convincing this sceptic that the former champions are good value to regain their crown."

Bayern Munich are involved in a four-way tussle for the Bundesliga title but are still the overwhelming favourites at 1.66. What does recent history tell us about that price, asks Matthew Walton.

For backers of Bayern Munich at prices as low as [1.14]... these are worrying times.

In the midst of 'Oscar season' all isn't going quite so well for FC Hollywood.

And for Jupp Heynckes's star-studded team, who have previously swept the board with 22 domestic championships, the route to No.23 is proving no stroll up the red carpet.

Bayern's return to the Bundesliga after Germany's mid-season break was welcomed with a 3-1 loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach and that result, along with some worrying pre-Christmas form has made the title race exactly that... a race!

Bayern P18 (W12 D1 L5) are now joint leaders of three on 37 points along with Borussia Dortmund (W11 D4 L3) and Schalke 04 (W12 D1 L5). The resurgent Mönchengladbach (W11 D3 L4) are just a point back with the next team, Werder Bremen, a further six points adrift.

But, many will say, Bayern always come on strong in the second half of the season. They have the money, the players, the experience... more than enough to get the job done.

Well, to a point.

There are five good reasons to question the claims of Die Bayern at their current market price of [1.66].

(i) Germany's most trophied club have only won the Bundesliga title twice in the last five years (2009/10 and 2007/08).

Last season Borussia Dortmund won the league. Jurgen Klopp's side finishing 7 points clear of second-placed Bayer Leverkusen with Bayern, a full 10 points back, just making the tri-cast.

In 2008/09 it was Wolfsburg who beat the Bavarians to the title and back in 2006/07 VFB Stuttgart claimed the title with Bayern, again a full 10 points behind the eventual champions, only coming fourth and ending up in the UEFA Cup/Europa League!

(ii) Bayern's current form isn't the best... W5 D0 L3 of their last eight matches has seen their early season lead disappear, allowing others (like Dortmund W6 D1 L1) to make up ground. Munich need to find their form... and fast!

(iii) 18 games played so far in the Bundesliga. Bayern have played nine at home and nine away, whilst Dortmund have played 10 away but just eight games at home. Slight advantage there to the main challengers. Bayern must also travel to the Westfalenstadion later in the campaign (having already lost at home to Dortmund earlier in the season).

(iv) Champions League activity could also be a distraction as the title race hots up in March/April. Bayern would expect to get past Basle in the R16... which will mean at least four more matches to squeeze into their end of season schedule (even if they go out in the QFs).

(v) and let's not forget, aside of all the above points (added to fatigue, injuries, suspensions etc) that Bayern have still only won the Bundesliga in five of the last 10 years. Odds-on quotes before the season starts (let alone midway) still represent questionable value.

Should we be happy, therefore, to lump on the favourites at a pretty short price?

Dortmund have seven previous national titles to their name, most recently winning the Bundesliga in 2010/11.

They're a very big threat indeed. More so as they possess a very in-form goalscorer...young Polish striker, Robert Lewandowski. With 14 goals in 18 matches he's a highly-rated performer, even by Bayern.

Schalke 04 certainly aren't serial winners (last victorious way back in 1958) but Huub Stevens has a side who have been runners-up three times in the last six seasons. They're not easily discounted as a result.

It's only Borussia Mönchengladbach who lack any recent pedigree (their 1976/77 league win was their last of three consecutive titles in the mid-70's).

But they, along with the other two, make for a chasing pack that has both strength and depth.

If you want to back Bayern at a short price, fine, but you might have a job convincing this sceptic that the former champions are good value to regain their crown. And that's the matter which is in hand... are they value?

The logical play, given the points raised, is to take a 'value' position on their nearest (and biggest) threat, Dortmund, even considering a back-to-lay strategy.

Key Statistic

Bayern only have the sixth best record in the Bundesliga against their nearest rivals (i.e. sides in the top half of the table). Dortmund, Shalke and Mönchengladbach all have better results against the better teams.

Recommended Bets

Back Borussia Dortmund to win the Bundesliga at [3.45]

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Pre-season Friendly Betting: Barcelona v Bayern Munich

Betfair Live Video / Michael Lintorn / 27 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Bayern Munich beat Italian champions AC Milan on penalties to earn this tie

"The hosts are taking the tournament more seriously than their guests because it marks their final friendly action before the start of the new campaign."

There is another hugely appetising friendly that Betfair customers can watch for free on Wednesday, as Barcelona and Bayern Munich contest the Audi Cup Final...

This writer's suggestion to lay Barcelona and Bayern Munich in the Audi Cup semi-finals proved shrewd - unlike the under 2.5 goals suggestion for Barca's 2-2 draw with Internacional - but both progressed regardless with the aid of a penalty shootout.

The consequence is that the lucky supporters at the Allianz Arena get to see two giants of European football with four Champions League wins apiece collide in Wednesday night's final, with home advantage enough to render Bayern slight frontrunners to triumph in 90 minutes at [2.74].

Barcelona aren't far behind at [2.78], though it could be judged a surprise that they are outsiders at all given the dominant manner with which they saw off the [1.61] Bundesliga favourites 5-1 on aggregate when they last met in the Champions League quarter-finals in 2008-09.

Counting against Jupp Heynckes' side are poor recent results, their one 90-minute victory in four fixtures coming against fan club Red Bulls Taubenbach. The fact that Barcelona have started pre-season with draws against Hajduk Split and Internacional points to another as the best bet at [3.45].

One other thing worth noting is that the hosts are taking the tournament more seriously than their guests because it marks their final friendly action before the start of the new campaign, and they fielded effectively their strongest available team against AC Milan on Tuesday.

By contrast, Barcelona are without their Copa America stars Dani Alves, Javier Mascherano, Lionel Messi and new signing Alexis Sanchez, and despite the big-name absentees still opted for a mix of experience and youth, so if you play the "draw no bet" market, Bayern appear the sounder option.

There is no favourite when it comes to over/under 2.5 goals, with both options priced at [1.96], but overs looks more attractive as two of their last three clashes have filled that criteria. It is [1.63] that both sides score in this match, which Betfair customers can watch through the Live Video service.

Best Bet: The draw @ [3.45]
Other Recommended Bet: Over 2.5 goals @ [1.96]

Few pre-season games attract 74,244 fans but this meeting of capital clubs from Germany and Spain is a rare exception that you can watch live on Betfair......

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Champions League Betting: Inter Milan v Bayern Munich

Champions League / James Eastham / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Super Mario, super form. Mario Gomez is a good bet on the 'to score' market

"Inter are a shadow of the side that won this competition last season although they’ve improved since Leonardo replaced Rafa Benitez as manager. Many of the players may be the same as last season but the side’s form has been unconvincing in European and domestic competition since the departure of Jose Mourinho. "

It's a repeat of last year's final but Inter aren't half the team they were and are up against a side who starteed poorly but are on a good run just now. James Eastham identifies the best betting options.

Introduction

Bayern goalkeeper Thomas Kraft and striker Mario Gomez ought to be fit. The pair picked up knocks against Mainz on Saturday.

Last season's two-goal Champions League final scorer Diego Milito looks set to miss out with a hamstring strain. Samuel Eto'o and Goran Pandev are expected to start up front. January signing Giampaolo Pazzini is ineligible.

Match Odds

Inter are a shadow of the side that won this competition last season although they've improved since Leonardo replaced Rafa Benitez as manager. Many of the players may be the same as last season but the side's form has been unconvincing in European and domestic competition since the departure of Jose Mourinho. Inter finished second in their opening-phase pool behind Champions League debutants Tottenham, and lie 3rd in Serie A, 5pts behind leaders AC Milan.

Bayern are in excellent form, winning six of their last eight Bundesliga matches to climb from seventh to second in the table. Much of this is down to the return from injury of Franck Ribery and Arjen Robben. The pair have been in sparkling form, with RIbery having a particular motivation on Wednesday night: he missed last season's Champions League final against Inter through suspension.

The pace and precision of Bayern's breaks gives the visitors as much chance as Inter of winning the game. I'd back Bayern at [3.4], or lay Inter at [2.3] if you want to cover the draw.

Inter are [2.1] to qualify, with Bayern [1.83]. Bayern look the better bet to me.

Both Teams to Score

If, as expected, Gomez is fit, Bayern's chances of scoring an away goal will improve: the giant Germany international has been in fantastic form this season, scoring 18 times in 22 league games and adding six in six Champions League appearances. A Bayern attack comprising Gomez, Ribery and Robben will be confident of getting on the scoresheet against an Inter defence that has conceded in 15 of its last 17 league games.

Inter are a free-scoring side, too, as their tally of 33 goals in their last 13 league goals shows. Back 'Yes' in Both Teams to Score market at [1.8].

To Score

Gomez would be my selection considering his outstanding form in the competition and this season in general. He's available at [3.2].

Best Bet: Back 'Yes' in Both Teams to Score market @ [1.8].

Other Recommended Bets: Lay Inter @ [2.3] and back Mario Gomez to score anytime @ [3.2].

It's a repeat of last year's final but Inter aren't half the team they were and are up against a side who starteed poorly but are on a good run just now. James Eastham identifies the best betting options....

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