Champions League 
/ Soccer Widow / 12 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Basel will defend a 1-0 lead when they travel to Bayern Munich on Tuesday
"On paper, this game looks likely to be decided in Bayern’s favour, although whether they can muster the required two goal margin of victory to avoid extra-time or an away-goals defeat is debatable."
Bayern Munich have to overturn a one goal deficit if they are to progress further in this season's Champions League. Soccer Widow checks out the statistics and finds a selection of 'value' bets...
Coincidence has dictated that exactly a year ago this week Bayern Munich were lining up a vital midweek Champions League match against Inter Milan three days after a comfortable 6-0 Bundesliga win at home to Hamburg. This time around, the Champions League match is of equal significance with the Bavarians looking to overturn a 0-1 deficit at home to FC Basel, an encounter which again comes three days after a six goal margin of victory in the Bundesliga, in Saturday's 7-1 drubbing of Hoffenheim at the Allianz Arena.
Of course, Bayern defeated Basel 3-0 in the group stages of the competition last season, but the Swiss team are now a different animal and have this season been on an incredible run of form, culminating in just one defeat on the road, and that was almost seven months ago on 20 August, 2011, 3-1 away to Luzern in the Swiss Super League.
Equally impressive is Bayern's formidable home form, with 16 victories and two defeats in all competitions this season. This is a clash that is eagerly awaited by both sets of fans.
Bayern have to win the tie by at least a two goal margin to progress and this is a feat they have accomplished in 22 of their last 30 home games. Basel's last 30 away games show defeats by at least a two goal margin only four times (as mentioned, just one of these occasions being this season).
Statistics in a little more detail:
Bayern Munich's last 30 home games (all competitions):
· Full time: 25 wins (83.3%), no draws (0%), five defeats (16.7%)
· Last six home results (most recent first): W-W-W-W-W-W
· Bayern winning by a margin of two goals or more: 22 times (73.3%)
· Bayern winning to nil: 17 times (56.7%)
· Half-time/Full-time: Away/Away = twice (6.7%)
FC Basel's last 30 away games (all competitions)
· Full time: 12 wins (40%), 13 draws (43.3%), 5 defeats (16.7%)
· Last six away results (most recent first): W-D-D-D-W-W
· Losing by a two goal margin or more: four times (13.3%)
· Losing without scoring: twice (6.7%)
· Half-time/Full-time: Basel/Basel = 9 times (30%)
Summary:
On paper, this game looks likely to be decided in Bayern's favour, although whether they can muster the required two goal margin of victory to avoid extra-time or an away-goals defeat is debatable. The only score-line that will take the match into extra-time is of course 1-0 to Bayern (available to back at [11.0]), but the statistics show that this score-line has a probability of only 1.67%, but laying 1-0, whilst carrying 'value' of 83.9%, is probably too high a risk at odds of [10.5].
The more interesting outlook here is in the To Qualify market, where Bayern's current price of [1.45] is more than 60% under-valued, so the wise money should be on the lay bet or indeed, backing FC Basel to qualify at [3.1], a price that represents 'value' of almost 175%.
Other Value Bet Recommendations:
· Back Bayern Win to Nil: 'No' (odds [2.28], 'true' odds [3.16], value 40.7%, probability: 68.33%)
· Lay Bayern Clean Sheet: 'Yes' (odds [2.12], 'true' odds [3.0], value 50%, probability: 67.67%)
· Back Half-time/Full-time: Basel/Basel (odds [32.0], 'true' odds [5.45], value 595.9%, probability: 18.3%)
Although the last of these recommendations is a long-shot with a probability of only 18.3%, Soccer Widow is including it because of the enormity of the 'value' attached. Having seen Basel defeat Manchester United at the end of both halves of the group match in Switzerland, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that lightning could strike again in Germany. Perhaps then it is worthy of a small flutter?
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