Open de Nice Cote d'Azur Betting: Top half of the draw the place for Nice value

"With only Querrey and the qualifiers to concern him now that Istomin is out on day one surely 51.0n/a on Roger-Vasselin is too big under these circumstances.."

Back to lay Roger-Vasselin at 51.0n/a

With just a week to go until the 2013 French Open the ATP Tour moves on to Nice and Dusseldorf for a final chance for some clay court match practice. Sean Calvert runs the rule over the contenders in Nice..

Last week's tactic of backing players in the bottom half of the draw in Rome proved to be the right one.

My choices of Juan Martin Del Potro and Richard Gasquet would both have made a profit on that basis, but I'm really disappointed that neither made the semi final and particularly in Delpo.

The big Argentine had a virtual walkover to the last four, but when you pick loses to an inspired run from Benoit Paire of all players you know your luck is out.

The week before the French Open sees the big names taking a week off, which in the case of the Open de Nice Cote d'Azur has seen number one seed Tomas Berdych withdraw from the tournament.

What Berdych was thinking in entering in the first place I'm not too sure, but he's out and that leaves an opportunity for someone at a handy price to make the final in this ATP 250 clay court event.

The home players always get raucous support here in Nice and Gilles Simon in particular as a Nice-born star is always well-backed by the crowd here and he's likely to go well.

But Simon is in the much tougher-looking bottom half of the draw that also features John Isner, Lleyton Hewitt, Andreas Seppi, Pablo Andujar, Gael Monfils, Fabio Fognini and Santiago Giraldo amongst others.

In contrast, the top half has Sam Querrey and Marcel Granollers as the highest ranked players and surely there is a real opportunity here this week if we can find the right player to side with.

Undoubtedly, the draw has been kind to Denis Istomin and Edouard Roger-Vasselin after the bizarre decision to replace Berdych at the head of the draw with Montanes, who gets Berdych's bye through to the second round. Number eight seed Istomin was beaten 6-2, 6-2 by Ricardas Berankis on Sunday though and that section represents an opportunity for Roger-Vasselin.

Others in with chances in that top half of the draw include Albert Ramos and Carlos Berlocq, but once again this par are drawn to face each other early, and surely Paul-Henri Mathieu has to come back to form at some point too.

Granollers should be itching to do better after taking a beating from Benoit Paire in Rome and Querrey can't be advised on clay having not bettered the second round on the dirt since winning Belgrade in 2010.

The bottom half of the draw has a far more competitive feel to it, with Fognini perhaps my favourite given his relatively easier draw, although he may have to face Isner in the last eight, which could be a spoiler.

Andujar will be a popular choice after his good run in Madrid, but he's been priced accordingly and 22.021/1 seems short for a player who hadn't been past the second round of any tournament since Cincinnati last summer prior to La Caja Magica.

Hewitt continues to enjoy wild cards as his career winds down and he hasn't been past the quarter finals of any European clay court tournament since the now defunct Portschach event back in 2007.

Seppi is very up and down at the moment but mainly down and he's won just two matches on the tour this season on clay. A thumping loss to Fognini at home in Rome last week won't have done much for him either and he looks lacking in confidence right now.

Simon should go well this week at home, but he's too short in the betting for my liking and hasn't sparkled at all lately, while Monfils looks to be struggling with his fitness still and will be tired after a run to the final at the Bordeaux Challenger that ends today.

Others that may take advantage of players who don't want to exhaust themselves ahead of Roland Garros are Robin Haase and Paulo Lorenzi, but the big names won't be going all out for this title and I like the idea of siding with Roger-Vasselin this week at around 51.0n/a.

On home soil, the wild card could go well and he's been unlucky in recent weeks on clay being drawn against David Ferrer, Andy Murray, Milos Raonic and even last week in Bordeaux he drew eventual champion Monfils.

This week his draw has been much kinder and with only Querrey and the qualifiers to concern him now that Istomin is out on day one and surely 51.0n/a is too big under these circumstances.

Recommended Bet
Back to lay Roger-Vasselin at 51.0n/a

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Myth-busting: 'It's not value that matters- it's winners'

The exercise of betting is in effect an extended experiment in your ability to judge value itself...

Simon Rowlands returns to challenge the misconceptions surrounding 'value' in gambling... 

Here's a quick myth-buster in a busy week, involving no spreadsheets or tables. To bust this myth, you do not need evidence, just common sense. As you have found your way to this blog, I trust the latter can be taken for granted. 

"Value", in betting terms, is the concept that a horse - or event, or whatever - is offered at odds greater than its true probability of occurring (or the opposite if you are laying it). The theory is that all you need to do is identify "value", and wait for enough events to take place to nullify chance, and you should be quids in. 

The contra-argument is that you can identify as many 10/1-shots that should be 7/1 as you like, but if none of them wins then your "value" has been worthless.

This betrays a basic misunderstanding of the concept of value itself. If, as in the above example, the true odds of an event occurring are 7/1, then an event will occur roughly one time in eight if repeated often enough. If what you thought was a 7/1 chance happens once in a blue moon then it was almost certainly not a 7/1 chance in the first place. 

The tricky thing with betting on sporting events is that you seldom know what the true odds are of an event occurring. This is unlike, say, a fair coin toss, in which you know that there is a 50-50 chance of each of the two possible outcomes.

A further mistake, and one that seems to be inextricably linked with the "all that matters is winners" school of thought, is to imagine that there is only one possible outcome of an uncertain event, and all you need to do is to identify it. This - ahem, long-word alert - teleological argument (the idea that an outcome is predetermined and therefore explains the phenomena that gave rise to it) has no place in the nuanced modern world of uncertainty. 

We should think in terms of the probability of something uncertain happening and not assume that because it happened it was somehow inevitable. 

The uncertainty of sporting events does not negate the concept of value - you should still, in the long run, back a horse that is favourably priced - but it does mean that the exercise of betting is in effect an extended experiment in your ability to judge value itself.
The "it's only winners that matter" brigade miss another crucial point: namely, that, unless you back only winners or only losers, the odds at which you back the winners matters. 

With the exception of arbing and similar forms of trading, none of us backs only winners, or only losers, though it may sometimes seem as if the latter is the case! For those who back a mixture of winners and losers - you and me, in other words - we need the rewards from the winners to offset the losses of the losers.

If you are not achieving that over a significant length of time then you are almost certainly not getting value. The problem is yours, dear reader: it is not that value does not exist.
As something of a postscript, it is as well to acknowledge that "value", like many great concepts, can get a bad reputation in the wrong hands.

In particular, those - you know the ones I mean - who constantly harp on about value just because a horse is at long odds are doing the term a disservice. 

Value can exist at very short odds as well as at very long odds, and at everywhere in between. That is why describing every 16/1+ shot as "value" is misjudged and why the blanket statement "don't back at odds on" is also folly. 

But the latter is possibly a myth-busting blog for another day! 

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US Masters Betting: 101 reasons why Westwood is Major value for the win at Augusta

"Westwood now has the opportunity to tumble out of bed at his home in the exclusive paradise of Old Palm Golf Club, pull on his shorts and go straight out to practise. The immediate result is that he’s now ranked 21st on tour for scrambling."

Lee Westwood has come close at Augusta in two of the last three seasons. Ralph Ellis says this could be the year when an improved short game means he's ready to be measured up for the Green Jacket...

By his own admission Lee Westwood once had more than 100 putters stored in his garage. While Tiger Woods took the same battered old implement from one winning tournament to the other for years, Worksop's finest was always looking for the magic stick which would sort out the one big weakness in his game.

It's the oldest adage in golf that you drive for show and putt for dough, and Westwood has long been its biggest example. Brilliant from tee to green (his ex caddy Billy Foster claims he's always been the world's best), his short game has never quite matched up.

Take last year's Masters, for example. Around four days at Augusta he took 128 putts, a total exceeded by only three others who played all 72 holes, and yet still finished just two shots short of a play-off. It was probably the most glaring example of his problems in a year when he stayed in the world's top ten despite being ranked 189th for scrambling and 174th in strokes gained/putting on the PGA tour. It doesn't take a genius to work out what needed to be solved to take the last step and actually win a Major.

Much has been made of Westwood's decision to leave his Nottingham roots and move his family to Florida. It's been part of a drastic change, with sacked caddies, coaches and other specialists left in his wake.

But one side effect of living in America was the chance to do something about his short game, and not only the opportunity to tumble out of bed at his home in the exclusive paradise of Old Palm Golf Club, pull on his shorts and go straight out to practise. The immediate result is that he's now ranked 21st on tour for scrambling. The chip shots are going close enough to the hole that he hasn't had to rely on putting.

Living in the States also allowed him to spend some time at Ping's headquarters in Arizona to have his putting stroke put under high-tec analysis with HD cameras establishing that he was cutting slightly across the ball from outside to inside. If you're bothered about the technical side he will now use a Counterbalanced Ping Scottsdale TR Anser B. If you're not, all you need to know is that it has a longer, 38 inch shaft and a higher mass to keep the face more square to the target. He used it in anger for the first time in the Shell Houston Open and the result was a top ten finish. In his opening round he took just 26 putts.

Now I know Augusta's lightning fast greens are a different matter, but that does tend to make Westwood's current price of 3.45n/a for a top ten finish in the Masters rather tempting. Come to that he's got the pedigree to think that backing him at 3433/1 to be the winner will give you a very good run for your money. You're talking about a player who has been in the top three in two of the last three seasons, so sort out his most glaring fault and it could be time to take the final step.

He once had 100 putters. Could it be that the 101st will be the one that Westwood prizes most?

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WTA Sony Open Betting: Lots of value in first round clashes

''Attention will very much be focused on the young British hopefuls in the opening round of matches as they will be keen to bounce back from first round exits at Indian Wells''

The opening round of the WTA Sony Open in Miami promises an array of intriguing encounters, with several competitors certain to be driven by the prospect of a second round tie against one of the top names in the women's game.

Serena Williams returns to the court for the first time since her historic return to world number one, in a tournament she has won five times previously. She leads a star-studded cast including the likes of Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sharapova and Agnieszka Radwanska, but as with all the top seeds, they receive a bye to the second round.

Johanna Larsson and Leisa Tsurenko both look good value to progress and will face Williams and Radwanska respectively should they succeed. 

Larsson begins her tournament against Italian star Flavia Pennetta and arrives in Miami in slightly better form after a straight sets victory against world No. 25 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in the second round at Indian Wells. Pennetta in contrast was comfortably dispatched in the opening round by compatriot Francesca Schiavone. The opportunity to advance and partake in Serena's historic return to the top will no doubt provide an incentive to both, with Larsson receiving generous odds to edge through in three sets at 5.14/1.

Defending champion and number four seed Radwanska will face either Tsurenko or Su-Wei Hsieh after receiving a bye to the next round. Tsurenko has shown signs of promise on the hard court surface so far this season, reaching the third round at both the Australian Open in January and again at Indian Wells. The in-form Ukrainian has left many impressed with her recent performances and looks a potential bet to provide a shock against Hsieh.

Elsewhere, British duo Heather Watson and Laura Robson face tough tests against Ayumi Morita and Camila Giorgi but will both be confident of progressing. Attention will very much be focused on the young British hopefuls in the opening round of matches as they will be keen to bounce back from first round exits at Indian Wells.

Current Japanese number one Morita prevailed against Watson when the youngsters met in Miami two years ago, winning easily in two sets. Expect this encounter to be closer though, with the Brit a good bet to go through after three. Robson will also have a real battle on her hands that is likely to go the distance.

Wildcard entrant Andrea Petkovic faces the unseeded Serbian Bojana Jovanovski, with the victor set to face Marion Bartoli in the next round. The Serb has been out of sorts since an impressive outing at the Australian Open, but should have enough against the German, who has struggled to return to top form since a serious ankle injury last year.

In other key opening round clashes, Svetlana Kuznetsova, a former champion back in 2006, opens her account against Lourdes Dominguez Lino and will be fancied to progress at the expense of the Spaniard.

Hard-hitting Tsvetana Pironkova takes on Daniela Hantuchova with the winner setting up a clash against eighth-seeded Italian Sara Errani. The Bulgarian was dumped out in the first round in Indian Wells, and you can envisage a potential repeat this week against her vastly experienced opponent.

There is also a potentially exciting encounter between Simona Halep and Sabine Lisicki to look forward to, with the German returning from injury. Much will depend on her fitness, but the world No. 37 has all the ability to advance.

Recommended Bets:
Bet on Tsurenko to beat Hsieh 2-1 @ 4.1n/a
Bet on Watson to beat Morita 2-1 @ 5.49/2
Bet on Larsson to beat Pennetta @ 2.3411/8
Bet on Jovanovski to beat Petkovic 2-0 @ 3.8514/5
Bet on Robson vs Giorgi to go three sets @ 2.3611/8

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Sky Dogs Tips: Warhawk value in Draper Juvenile shootout

"Barrie Draper has a mightily strong hand but while Ballymac Eske will be the obvious choice of his two, kennelmate Farloe Warhawk should not be under-estimated, given his far superior record over the CD and the likelihood that he will lead"

Three months after the Oaks final, greyhound racing returns to Sky Sports for an intriguing Juvenile shoot-out which is sure to have a major bearing on the Derby, supported by a riveting Springbok final as the novice hurdlers do battle. Darrell Williams is across the best of the action.

21:19 Juvenile

T1 Alien Planet
Exceptionally fast win in the puppy race on Derby final night shows what he is capable of. Unraced since November and mixed record after a long break. Connections unsure about the trap one draw (two from five record). Winner of only one of his last nine races.

T2 Teejays Bluehawk
Will have to do it the hard way judged on previous trial form (yet to race at this track). Beaten at odds-on on his seasonal return at Hove and has won only one race in his last seven outings.

T3 Ballymac Eske
Derby favourite but yet to win in three starts at Wimbledon although only just touched off by Farloe Warhawk in a riveting Puppy Derby final. Fast trial last week but unraced since December. Would prove hard to beat if poaching an early advantage.

T4 Farloe Warhawk
Ran unbeaten in the Puppy Derby here last summer and has won 12 of his last 14 races. Capable of very fast starts here as confirmed in last week's trial although overall time suggested he needed it. Without a race for four months but can go well fresh. Chance depends on getting clear of his kennelmate.

T5 Jaytee Hellcat
Still to see what he is truly capable of but a fast winner here in November and confirmed that run with an impressive trial last week. Likely to enjoy plenty of racing room and chance is better than his odds might suggest.

T6 Lenson Champ
Has a fitness edge on most of his rivals but even a 'flyer' is highly unlikely to prove good enough judged on his previous moderate Wimbledon record.

Verdict:
Barrie Draper has a mightily strong hand but while Ballymac Eske will be the obvious choice of his two, kennelmate Farloe Warhawk should not be under-estimated, despite obvious signs of needing his trial last week. The two fought out a tremendous buckle in the Puppy Derby - where Eske had actually led - but given Warhawk's far superior record over the CD and the likelihood that he will lead he offers slightly more value over his rival and earns the slimmest of votes. Value seekers could do worse than include Jaytee Hellcat, whose trial last week confirmed his ability and he could surprise granted a likely clear run.

19:34 Sprint
King Scotty would be fast enough to win the 'A' division on his best form here and rates the night's best bet in a far from strong line-up. Comeragh King is at least winning races and rates best of the rest.

19:49 Ladies
A belter of a contest but Oaks third Forest Mollie (yet to win in four here) may struggle to hold in-form Lughill Valerie early on. Bridge Ruth is improving with each race here and is preferred to fast starting Jaytee Cuba who has Britania Joan to clear.

20:04 Marathon
Aero Rebel will be popular back in marathon company as will Black Lamora, who looks well drawn as the lone wide tag, but Buglys Billie has been in excellent form this season and can make it six wins in her last nine races.

20:19 Springbok final
Rockview Royal defends the competition's only unbeaten record and has won three of his five races here, but his chance depends on leading early, which may prove difficult alongside Westmead Meteor, who went fastest in the semi-finals. Both jump well, but Ricky Holloway's runner is also stronger and could prove hard to handle even if only handy early on. Lenson Johnny beat the selection in the first round but may struggle to clear the inside pace of Druids Abouttime and Durrow Lark.

20:34 Sprint
Aero Joseph makes some appeal after his good trial and fast Romford win last month but Lil Risky has a good record here and is the logical choice.  Ballymac Jones has won his last five races from trap one but his trial was poor.

20:49 Standard
A great match-up between Bubbly Phoenix and Loughteen Blanco but one which Blanco is expected to win given his likely lead ability claims and excellent current form. Derby semi-finalist Phoenix, beaten on his comeback, is faster at his best but is also far more effective from trap six.

21:04 Stayers
Leger winner Blonde Reagan has an excellent draw outside five railers and should make it four from six over CD. Bubbly Swallow is capable of fast times here but may struggle to enjoy a clear run from trap five. Droopys Xavier (third in the Leger) is still to win here from five tries and may not clear middle favouring Ballymac Pen.

Recommended Bets
King Scotty 19:34
Loughteen Blanco 20:49
Westmead Meteor 20:19
Farloe Warhawk 21:19

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ATP Indian Wells Betting: Matosevic value against Querrey and Murray may have to work again

"Matosevic is striking the ball well and Querrey doesn’t have a good record at Indian Wells, with just one fourth round appearance lifetime at this venue.."

Back Matosevic +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.834/5

Sean Calvert was back to winning ways at Indian Wells yesterday and he's identified another tempting wager at the BNP Paribas Open this evening...

Kevin Anderson more than justified my faith in him yesterday with a thoroughly convincing straight sets win over Jarkko Nieminen to make my straight sets wager a winner at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.

The big South African was in rare form again and after his win over David Ferrer the previous round and the Finn had no answers in a 6-3, 6-1 stroll in which Anderson lost just one point on his first serve.

Elsewhere, Jerzy Janowicz produced the kind of performance against Richard Gasquet that I was expecting when he faced David Nalbandian in the previous round. The Pole managed just 41% of first serves in play, which was never likely to get the job done against the Gasman.

It was easy for Roger Federer and even easier for Rafa Nadal, whose opponent withdrew and probably the highlight of the day was a typically barmy performance from Ernests Gulbis, who showed his full repertoire in a tight three set win over Andreas Seppi. 

Andy Murray is in action tonight against the man who memorably stunned him at the 2008 Olympics Yen Hsun Lu, but that match won't be on until 2am. For those staying up late marking their cards for Cheltenham I would be inclined to side with Lu with a 5.5 game start at around 1.9520/21. 

Murray recovered from a slow start against Evgeny Donskoy, but he's not the same player in Masters compared to Slams and I doubt that he'll take Lu apart tonight. 

Also in action today are Novak Djokovic who should have few problems getting past Grigor Dimitrov and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who should take care of a very rusty Mardy Fish. Juan Martin Del Potro also looks to have a pretty routine task against diminutive German Bjorn Phau.

But Marin Cilic versus Milos Raonic should be competitive and probably quite long, with the overs looking good there and I like Nico Almagro to edge it against Tommy Haas, but perhaps better value comes in the match between Marinko Matosevic and Sam Querrey.

Big Sam has had a pretty average year so far and is perhaps best known for a shocking choke against Gulbis in Delray Beach so far in 2013 and he has been beaten by Matosevic already this season. 

The Aussie has eased into the third round stage by beating Tommy Robredo and Juan Monaco in straight sets, which shows that he's striking the ball well and Querrey doesn't have a good record at Indian Wells, with just one fourth round appearance lifetime at this venue. 

The 3.259/4 about a Matosevic win is worthy of consideration, but the 3.5 game handicap start at 1.834/5 looks a good bet in this one, as surely at least one and probably all sets of this one will be close. 

Recommended Bet
Back Matosevic +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.834/5

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Value Alert: Reading game looks ripe for over 2.5 goals

"Saturday's relegation blockbuster at the Madejski has potential value lurking in the goals market, as two of the Premier League's most suspect defences square up."

It's that time of the week where Christian Crowther looks for potential value in the upcoming Premier League fixtures...

The Value Alert widget contrasts odds calculated using an algorithm that takes into account short and long-term form, variation in home and away performance, records against teams in specific parts of the table and recent head-to-head results with the latest Betfair prices. This flags up the area in which public perception most contradicts statistical evidence in either the match odds or over/under 2.5 goal markets, identifying potential back or lay value.

Occasionally, one has to put one's hands up and admit a defeat. Last week was an instance where value didn't translate to profit, as demonstrated by Wigan's failure to produce the form that hoisted them out of the relegation zone when entertaining Liverpool.

West Brom, however, did run Chelsea close in their visit to Stamford Bridge in keeping with the widget's prediction that there was more in it than the price suggested for the Baggies.

Still, there's no point dwelling as there are plenty more alerts worth a look in the forthcoming fixtures.

According to the Value Finder, Tottenham's odds of winning at Liverpool, priced by Betfair at 4.216/5, could actually be shaved quite drastically, with a difference of 1.9 in the offing for potential Spurs' backers.

Tottenham have made themselves particularly tricky customers for Liverpool in recent times too. The Lilywhites have not lost to the Reds in their last five Premier League meetings, winning three of those, including a 2-0 victory at Anfield two seasons ago.

This upcoming collision sees both teams in great form, but recent history points to more touchline-sprinting from AVB come Sunday.

Meanwhile, Swansea's trip to West Brom is worthy of a closer look. The Swans banished any notion of a Capital One Cup hangover by beating a resurgent Newcastle last time out and, the Value Finder suggests their price of 3.259/4 may be a little on the generous side.

Saturday's relegation blockbuster at the Madejski has potential value lurking in the goals market, as two of the Premier League's most suspect defences square up.

When you consider that every one of Reading's last 11 games have breached the 2.5 mark, squeezing out 0.37-worth of value by backing this game to follow suit at 1.865/6 should prove worthwhile.

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Sydney International 2013: Grab the big priced value before 2013's first slam

"Plenty of options for back-to-lay punters this week to choose from with Bedene, Granollers and Nieminen offering potentially great value."

Back to lay Bedene at 100.099/1
Back to lay Granollers at 50.049/1
Back to lay Nieminen at 34.033/1

The ATP Tour moves on to Sydney ahead of the Australian Open and tennis expert Sean Calvert has identified the big priced players worthy of consideration this week...

The Australian Open is little over a week away, but first the men's tour has two more ATP 250 events ahead of the big one in Melbourne.

This week's tournaments are in Sydney and Auckland and of the two the former looks to be the more wide open and therefore offers the chance of a bit of value.

Being held so close to a Grand Slam makes it likely that the higher ranked players will withdraw if they feel any slight injury and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Richard Gasquet are both non-runners this week already.

With the two Frenchmen out, John Isner is the top seed, but he withdrew from the Hopman Cup last week citing a knee injury and hasn't won a match on outdoor hard since sneaking past Kevin Anderson in three tie breaks in Shanghai when Anderson choked.

In fact, Isner's record since losing to Philipp Kohlschreiber in New York is 2-7 and his top half of the draw in Sydney looks a good opportunity for the likes of Anderson, Radek Stepanek, Fernando Verdasco, Aljaz Bedene, Feli Lopez, Denis Istomin, Julien Benneteau, Roberto Bautista Agut and Ryan Harrison, who are the main contenders in that top half.

Anderson is too short a price for my liking, but Bedene could be worth a few pounds at 100.099/1, as he looks to be on course for a decent season and the layers may not have cottoned on yet. He has had a long journey from Chennai after reaching the semi finals there, but he seems a decent back-to-lay bet at a big price.

Another good option could turn out to be last year's finalist Benneteau, who was beaten by last year's Sydney champion Jarkko Nieminen in the opener in Brisbane and will be after match practice and ranking points this week.

Benny is available to back at around 26.025/1 at the moment and the Frenchman may give a good account himself to his backers at that sort of price, as might fellow Frenchman Chardy at 42.041/1.

The bottom half of the draw looks more competitive with Grigor Dimitrov, Andreas Seppi, Gilles Simon, Bernard Tomic, Florian Mayer, Marcel Granollers and Nieminen all in with claims.

Brisbane finalist Dimitrov is the obvious choice, but I can't see him wanting two long weeks in a row before Melbourne and his price of 8.07/1 looks a little short to me.

Simon has won here before and he has a good chance again, but he hasn't made a final on hard since that 2011 Sydney title week and he looks too short as well at around 9.08/1.

Tomic is interesting as ever, but his price of 7.06/1 is based on beating Novak Djokovic in an exhibition and while it could be argued that he plays his best tennis in Australia, he's yet to do anything in a tour level event that justifies such a low price. He also has a tough first rounder against fellow Aussie Marinko Matosevic, in which the value will certainly be with Marinko.

Another Aussie, John Millman is also in that bottom half and he might cause a shock or two based on his form last week in Brisbane and I have a feeling that last year's winner Nieminen might have another good week here.

The Finn won this as a qualifier last year and retired last week in Brisbane against Alex Dolgopolov. Surely he didn't have one eye on protecting ranking points from last year when coming to that decision?

Jarkko is around 34.033/1 and likely to get bigger and he's worth a back-to-lay investment, as I'm sure we'll see a decent run from him this week.

Seppi lost all three matches in the Hopman Cup last week and has a poor record in Australia, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Mayer have a run this week.

You can never tell when Mayer will be on form and at 21.020/1 he's not out of contention, while Granollers is too big at upwards of 50.049/1.

The Spaniard has a poor record in Australia, but he's improving in hard courts and is constantly underrated by the layers. He produced a decent run on hard at the end of last season reaching a Masters 1000 quarter final in Toronto and also in Winston Salem and he could take advantage if Dimitrov is below par this week.

So, plenty of options for back-to-lay punters this week to choose from with Bedene, Granollers and Nieminen offering potentially great value.

Recommended Bets
Back to lay Bedene at 100.099/1
Back to lay Granollers at 50.049/1
Back to lay Nieminen at 34.033/1

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FA Cup Stats: Value bets from the winner market and third round match-ups

"One of the many advantages of Betfair over traditional bookmakers is that you don't necessarily need to find the overall winner. You can get a good run for your money, and turn a profit, by backing one of the less obvious teams with a view to laying them at a later stage."

Andrew Atherley has crunched the FA Cup numbers to bring you a huge selection of tournament betting options...

One statistical trend stands out above all others when it comes to betting on the FA Cup: it is a competition dominated by the big six to almost the same extent as the Premier League.

Since the last big FA Cup final upset - when Wimbledon's Crazy Gang beat Liverpool in 1988 - only eight different clubs have lifted the famous trophy. All of the current big six have won at least once in that period, with Everton (1995) and Portsmouth (2008) the only clubs to have broken the stranglehold.

Add in the luck of the draw and punters are going to be fortunate indeed to find the overall winner unless they go for one of the big names. Perhaps the best choice at this stage might be Tottenham at 11.5n/a, as they are starting to gain momentum under Andre Villas-Boas and have a relatively easy start at home to Coventry.

But one of the many advantages of Betfair over traditional bookmakers is that you don't necessarily need to find the overall winner. You can get a good run for your money, and turn a profit, by backing one of the less obvious teams with a view to laying them at a later stage.

One of the best choices for that approach in recent years has been Stoke, who have reached at least the last eight in the past three seasons and were losing finalists in 2011. They are available to back at 44.043/1 this year and are likely to shorten if they can overcome a difficult start away to Crystal Palace.

It is notable that all eight of last season's quarter-finalists started their cup run against teams below them in the league standings (the seven Premier League teams that made it to that stage all drew lower-league opposition in the third round). Stoke fit that bill, but they may not be the most solid selection this time.

Another possible back-to-lay from the Premier League is Fulham at 38.037/1 as they start at home to Blackpool. Everton, Sunderland, Aston Villa and Wigan are others who have been given good chances to progress to the fourth round.

Another group of teams to consider is the top 12 in the Championship, who often feature a surprise performer in the FA Cup, granted a favourable draw. Last season Leicester were 12th in the Championship at the start of the third round and were the only team from outside the Premier League to reach the quarter-finals, losing to eventual winners Chelsea.

Leicester, drawn at home to Burton, have a decent chance of shortening again from their current 170.0169/1, as do Middlesbrough from 160.0159/1 on the assumption that they will have no difficulty disposing of Hastings at home.

Another way to profit from the solid form of the Championship top 12 is to back them in individual ties against teams below that level. Those may not be the most eye-catching games of the round, but the record of teams from the top half of the Championship is excellent in that sort of match-up.

The most attractively priced options this weekend are Millwall at 1.748/11 at home to Preston of League One, Leeds at 2.0811/10 at home to Birmingham from the bottom half of the Championship and Derby at 1.794/5 at home to League One leaders Tranmere.

Another trend worth following is that ties involving short-priced Premier League teams are often high-scoring, particularly when they are away to a lower-league team. Ties with the potential to go over 2.5 goals at decent odds include Brighton v Newcastle at 1.8810/11, Bolton v Sunderland at 1.9310/11 and Crystal Palace v Stoke at 2.1211/10.
Recommended Bets
Millwall to beat Preston @ 1.748/11
Leeds to beat Birmingham @ 2.0811/10
Derby to beat Tranmere @ 1.794/5
Brighton v Newcastle over 2.5 goals @ 1.8810/11
Bolton v Sunderland over 2.5 goals @ 1.9310/11
Crystal Palace v Stoke over 2.5 goals @ 2.1211/10

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The Omega European Masters: Wiesberger value to make it three, says The Punter

“Berndt Wiesberger is an in-form clinical closing multiple European Tour winner and he’s far too big at 60.059/1 in this grade.”

Flushed with success after Paul Lawrie's win in Scotland, Steve takes a look at this week's European Tour action from Switzerland. Could our man pick back-to-back winners on the Race to Dubai?

Tournament History
With an illustrious list of champions that includes Bob Charles, Nick Price, Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros (three times), José María Olazábal, Sergio Garcia, Ernie Els, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, to name but a few, the Omega European Masters has a rich history dating right back to 1923.

It's been a European Tour event since 1972 and it's a bit disappointing to see a relatively weak field this week, thanks to its current slot in the schedule - opposite the second PGA Tour playoff event, the Deutsche Bank Championship, which starts on Friday. The tournament has been co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour since 2009.

Venue
Crans-sur-Sierre, Crans Montana, Switzerland

Course Details
Par 71, 6822 yards
Stroke index in 2011 - 70.55

Winding its way through the beautiful mountains of Crans Montana, Crans-sur-Sierre is a visually stunning venue. At way below 7,000 yards, it's very short by modern standards and the last three winners have all achieved a total of at least 20 under-par.

With small upturned-saucer like greens, accuracy is most certainly the key attribute and Greens In Regulation and Scrambling are the two main stats to concentrate on. Three of the last four winners ranked 1st or 2nd for GIR and the three winners between 2007 and 2009 all topped the Scrambling stats.

Although a neat and tidy short game is what usually gets the job done here, the longer hitters can take advantage of the scoring holes. The par five opening hole, measuring just 540 yards, always ranks the easiest on the course, holes 6 and 7 are drivable par fours and the back-to-back par fives, 14 and 15, also offer great birdie/eagle chances.

Useful Sites
Tournament Site
Tee Times
Weather Forecast

TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days - 10.30am and 3.30pm on Thursday and Friday and 12pm on Saturday and Sunday.

Last Five Winners
2011 - Thomas Bjorn -20
2010 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -21
2009 - Alexander Noren - 20
2008 - Jean-Francois Lucquin -13 (playoff)
2007 - Brett Rumford -16 (playoff)

Is there an identikit winner?
As mentioned, accurate iron-play and good scrambling pay dividends - the players will be hitting an awful lot of wedges into the greens this week, setting up plenty of birdie chances so a great short game is key but its also worth noting that in-form players have fared well in recent years too.

Last year's winner, Thomas Bjorn had won the Johnnie Walker Championship seven days earlier and Edoardo Molinari finished second in 2010 after winning in Scotland the week before. And both Bjorn and Miguel Angel Jimenez in 2010 were winning their third event of the year.

In-Play Tactics
A fast start is important at Crans. Its 14 years since any winner was worse than five strokes off the lead after day one or three back at halfway, so it makes sense to concentrate on the front of the leaderboard from early on.

The harder holes come in three sets of three - the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, the 11th, 12th, and 13th and the final three. If your pick has hit the front after playing the reachable par five pair of 14 and 15, it might make sense to take some profit before they encounter the long par 3 16th, which always ranks the toughest hole on the course.

Market Leaders
Favourite Peter Hanson makes very little appeal. His 7th placed finish at the US PGA Championship last time out was impressive but he has no course form to speak of and it's now two years since his last success.

Last week's winner Paul Lawrie is bidding to emulate Bjorn of last year and achieve the unique Qatar Masters, Johnnie Walker Championship and Omega European Masters treble. That really would be quite bizarre and I can't see him doing it. His form at Crans isn't great, although he did finish second ten years ago, and he's often a slow starter, something that will really hamper him here. I imagine he's celebrated his latest success and that won't help either.

Former winners Bjorn and Alex Noren are both respected but both are a shade short for my liking and I liked Matteo Manassero at first glance but he also looks a bit short given his poor form of late.

Selections
Nobody in the field has a more solid bank of course form than 2010 winner Miguel Angel Jimenez and he looked a more than fair price at 36.035/1. He hasn't had the greatest of seasons but he turned the corner in no uncertain terms at last month's Open Championship, where he finished in the top-ten - ranking 1st for putting. Next time out, he finished 27th at the US PGA Championship, where he ranked 4th for both Driving Accuracy and GIR and 16th for putting. A missed cut at Gleneagles last week wasn't ideal but was he only there to support his Ryder Cup captain anyway?

Miguel will be buoyed by last week's announcement that he's Olazábal's fourth and final vice-captain at the fast-approaching Ryder Cup and given he's finished inside the top-ten in each of the last four years here, it would be no surprise whatsoever if he featured again this time around.

As previously mentioned, the last two winners were winning their third event of the season when they found success here; could lightening strike for a third time? Considering he was beaten in a playoff there 12 months ago, I was quite surprised that Austria's Berndt Wiesberger wasn't in the field at last week's Johnnie Walker Championship and I did wonder if there might have been a slight problem with the recent Austrian Open winner. It seems not, he was actually acclimatising himself well for this week's event, winning the Zurich Open pro-am with two rounds of 67.

Berndt missed the cut here on his only appearance but that came off the back of that disappointing playoff defeat last year and I'm happy to dismiss it. The Austrians an in-form clinical closing multiple European Tour winner and he's far too big at 60.059/1 in this grade.

Argentines often prosper at mountain venues and I've decided to make a small play on the only two in the field this week. Ricardo Gonzalez won this event in 2001 and he'd love to emulate his fellow countryman Eduardo Romero and win it twice.

Tano Goya zipped over to Switzerland after missing the cut in Scotland last week and very nearly won. A triple-bogey at the 15th hole in the second and final round of the Zurich Open stopped him in his tracks but he still finished second to Wiesberger.

Selections:
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 36.035/1
Berndt Wiesberger @ 60.059/1
Ricardo Gonzalez @ 200.0199/1
Tano Goya @ 400.0399/1

The week's other event, the Deutsche Bank Championship doesn't start until Friday but I'll be back tonight or early tomorrow with a preview.

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Avvia Premiership Betting: Harlequins are best title value

Quins are 4.67/2 to be Grand Final winners, with Leicester 2.021/1 and Saracens 3.052/1 both fancied ahead of them. To finish top of the regular season, Harlequins are anything up to 8.88/1.

Harlequins took the Premiership by storm last season and they produced a brave performance to beat Leicester in the Grand Final. Ralph Ellis reckons the defending champs rate the best value ahead of next weekend's big kick-off...

They are the champions, but they have signed only a couple of youngsters in pre-season. It seems what's good enough for Manchester City has also been the blueprint for Aviva Premiership winners Harlequins this summer. After winning their first title they have added only promising Kiwi fly-half Ben Botica and upgraded Academy prop Darryl Marfo to the senior squad.

The difference is that while Roberto Mancini's side started the new campaign as firm favourites in the betting to retain their title, Quins will kick off with doubts about their potential to do the same. They are 4.67/2 to be Grand Final winners, with Leicester 2.021/1 and Saracens 3.052/1 both fancied ahead of them. To finish top of the regular season, Harlequins are anything up to 8.88/1.

Now maybe it's because I developed a soft spot for the side from the Stoop after backing them to be successful at the start of last season's play-offs(http://betting.betfair.com/rugby/aviva-premiership/aviva-premiership-play-offs-robshaw-determined-to-lead-quins-to-glory-090512-201.html), but it looks to me like another great value bet. All the things that held true in early May are still in place, and while the recruitment might not have been exciting since, the fundamental strengths of the club remain.

As Dean Richards returns to rugby charged with bringing Newcastle back to the Premiership, its hard not to think that his departure from The Stoop was what kick started a major change in fortune. The Bloodgate scandal emphasised a culture that put winning first and the method of getting there second. Since then Conor O'Shea has taken a different tack as director of rugby by putting the method first, in the belief that good habits in training and on match day are what ultimately creates results.

O'Shea has been doing some interesting things in the build up to the opening day fixture at London Wasps next Saturday. They played two friendlies on the same afternoon last weekend, beating first London Scottish and then their Heineken Cup pool rivals Connacht. O'Shea's idea was to give a full pre-season workout to 30 players rather than have everybody only get half a game.

The other big development has been convincing Danny Care to sign a new three year contract, and if anybody can benefit from O'Shea's ethics then it is the England scrum-half. It has taken Care several scrapes with trouble, but he finally caught up to the idea that being an international rugby player would also mean acting like a professional athlete. We saw on the summer tour to South Africa what giving up drink and engrossing himself in Stuart Lancaster's new disciplined England culture could do for him, and the word from The Stoop is that Care has brought those principles back to his club for pre-season.

Leicester will inevitably be strong again, and Saracens continue to invest in their playing and coaching staff as they prepare to move into their new home in Barnet. But Quins proved last season when they led the table at Christmas, and stayed there for the rest of the campaign, that they deserved to be taken seriously - and they are unquestionably the best value bet ahead of a new campaign.

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West Indies v Australia: New look home side are the value

Test previews / Richard O’Hagan / 08 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Brathwaite builds runs against the Aussie attack

"Only 19, Kraigg Brathwaite wasn't even born when Geoffrey Boycott played his last innings, yet no player of recent years more closely replicates the Yorkshireman's 'defence first' approach to cricket than Brathwaite does."

The big-hitting big names of recent West Indies teams have gone and in their place are a collection of more nuanced individuals - and that makes the home team an interesting bet for Richard O'Hagan during their current series against Australia

Once upon a time a Test series between the West Indies and Australia would have been a battle to the death (almost literally) between the two best sides in the world.

The three Test series which began in Jamaica yesterday, however, finds both sides in a state of transition. Australia have slipped to third in the world, while their hosts have never yet recovered from Brian Lara's retirement five years ago, let alone the departures of other illustrious players over the past decade.

In many respects Kraigg - yes, that is the correct spelling - Brathwaite is an atypical West Indian player. Over the years their home crowds have become accustomed to dashing strokeplay, from the formidable years of Viv Richards et al, when teams (including Australia) would simply be steamrollered on the hard, fast, Caribbean pitches, to more recent times. Those recent times - of Chris Gayle, Dwayne Bravo and latterly Kieron Pollard - have been the 'boom and bust' years, of players frenetically chasing runs and innings after innings ending in inevitable collapse.

Those players are now gone, chasing (for better or worse) the IPL dollar.

In Gayle's place has come Brathwaite, a player less like the stereotypical West Indian than you could possibly imagine. Still only 19, he wasn't even born when Geoffrey Boycott played his last innings, yet no player of recent years more closely replicates the Yorkshireman's 'defence first' approach to cricket than Brathwaite does. In seven Tests (imagine playing seven Tests before you turn 20) his strike rate is barely two runs an over. That's a full run per over less than that other famous Caribbean limpet, Shivnarine Chanderpaul.

Yesterday, Brathwaite faced 199 balls for his 57 runs, a thorn so firmly in the Australian side that Michael Clarke got through seven bowlers and 67 overs before he was the third West Indian to fall.

Around him were three other players who represent the future of West Indian cricket. Adrian Barath seems to have a firm grip on the other opening spot despite the odd moment of gullibility such as falling for the legside trap that saw him dismissed for 22 yesterday. Kirk Edwards has the ability to mix calmness with aggression at number three and Darren Bravo, whose entire career has been not so much saddled with comparisons to his cousin Lara as hog-tied by them, now averages over 52 at this level. Between them they took the score to 179-3 before rain brought an early halt to the day.

There was not a lot to cheer for the Australians. Asked to field after Darren Sammy won the toss, their bowling attack was so toothless that Clarke had to call upon the part-time leg-spin of opener David Warner long before tea. Although he broke the century partnership between Brathwaite and Edwards, it was with a ball so bad that Edwards seemed surprised and simply mishit it.

It could be another long day in the field for the visitors today and odds of [2.2] on a score of more than 375 look very good indeed.

The Windies remain the [6.8] outsiders to win this Test. If they can build upon their good start they will feel that their bowling attack, based more on raw pace than the line-and-length merchants the Australians have gone for, gives them a good chance of bowling out their opponents twice on this batsman-friendly pitch.

More importantly for the long term future of the game in the Caribbean, a win over Australia will lead to increased faith in this new look, new style, team.

Best Best
West Indies to win at odds of [6.8]

Another batting masterclass from Mahela Jayawardene has given Sri Lanka a chance of saving this match but they will have to carry on batting deep into the last day. As the end approaches it's worth remembering a few golden rules...

It was the Kevin Pietersen show this afternoon, who hit one of the best centuries we've seen in a while. But England will have to toil tomorrow against some stubborn batsmen and we're likely to have to wait to the...

Ed Hawkins has good reasons to be complimentary of England's display on day two and in Jonathan Trott they have a player who can help build a good lead. But batting last promises to be a nightmare so we should...

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Premier League Stats: Late season improvers offer value

Premier League / Andrew Atherley / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Phil Bardsley and the Black Cats are on the upgrade

"Knowing which teams have upped their game, while others have stagnated or gone backwards, might be useful for punters this week, when a handful of in-form teams stand out as good bets."

The second-half of the season has seen some teams stall while others have turned the form around. Andrew Atherley outlines the improving Premier League performers and those on the decline

Half of the 20 Premier League teams have improved in the second half of the season and it's a fair bet that some of the names on the list would cause a few eyebrows to be raised.

Knowing which teams have upped their game, while others have stagnated or gone backwards, might be useful for punters this week, when a handful of in-form teams stand out as good bets.

We can all see that Manchester United are the improving team at the top of the table - their points average was 2.37 per game in the first 19 matches but has gone up to 2.5 in the second half of the season. Every other big-six team has gone backwards since the halfway point, some only marginally but Tottenham and Liverpool most dramatically.

Swansea are another obviously progressive side. Brendan Rodgers' increasingly impressive team are second to United among the improvers and third overall (behind United and Manchester City) if the league table was based only on results in the second half of the season. Swansea's record since the halfway point is six wins, one draw and three defeats.

One of the surprise names on the list of improvers might be Newcastle, who started fast and to many eyes appear to be consolidating at best. In fact, they are still moving forward - their points average in the second half of the season is 1.7 per game, a rise from 1.58 up to the halfway point.

Norwich, too, are still on the up, which might surprise some people after their status as best promoted side was taken over by Swansea. And it might also be a surprise that Bolton have improved just as much as Everton in the second half of the season, more than doubling their previous points average.

Blackburn, too, are notable improvers at the bottom end with a healthy average of 1.4 points per game since the halfway point, but the other strugglers - QPR, Wigan and Wolves - have all gone backwards.

So, how does that help us with this week's matches? Well, there are three fixtures that pit one of the improvers against a team in decline and backing the in-form teams looks the way to go.

The three improvers are Everton (at home to Arsenal on Wednesday night), Norwich (at home to Wolves on Saturday) and Sunderland (at home to QPR on Saturday).

With respect to Arsenal's steadying form, Everton might be best off -0 on the Asian handicap at [2.44]. Wolves and QPR have the worst two points averages since the halfway point of the season and home wins for Norwich at [1.84] and Sunderland at [1.94] look good.

Manchester City do not fit in the 'improvers' category, but nor are they imploding as some appear to believe.

Their points average in the first half of the season was 2.37 and since then it has been 2.33, still making them clear second-best in the Premier League behind leaders United.
City's home form is keeping them going and their fabulous record at the Etihad gives them strong betting appeal against Chelsea on Wednesday night.

In the past 12 months City's home record is 23 wins, one draw and just two defeats - and it's a perfect 18 in the Premier League. Despite Chelsea's resurgence, the stats say back City for another home win at [1.95].

Pick of the stats
Bolton v Blackburn
Both teams rank in the top four for games with over 2.5 goals - Bolton are second with 71 per cent and Blackburn fourth with 66 per cent

Swansea v Everton
Swansea rank seventh on home form and Everton's away record against the top 10 in that category is one win, one draw and six defeats

Recommended Bets
Manchester City to beat Chelsea at [1.95]
Everton off -0 on the Asian handicap v Arsenal at [2.44]
Norwich to beat Wolves at [1.84]
Sunderland to beat QPR at [1.94]

Blackburn are beginning to reap the rewards of sticking with Steve Kean and are now within touching distance of saving their Premier League skin......

A battle between two Italian coaches is always likely to be very tactical - Michael Cox assesses Roberto Mancini and Roberto Di Matteo's options....

There's no question about who has the momentum in this match but City's record at home is an incredible one. When all is said and done, it should be a point each in a really entertaining game of football, says...

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Steady Furyk the value in Florida

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 18 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jim Furyk – Good value at [4.6] according to The Punter

“Given the record of third round leaders, I quite like Furyk here and I’ve backed him at [4.6].”

It's still too close to call in Spain but Steve likes the chances of Jim Furyk in the States. Can he become the eighth third round leader to win in 12 years?

14:05 - March 18, 2012

The Open de Andalucía still looks nigh on impossible but I've taken a chance in-running on Hennie Otto. I've had a very moderate bet at [8.0].

11:20 - March 18, 2012

With just one round to go, I'm still keeping my in-running powder dry at the Open de Andalucía. The leaderboard is still chock-a-block and almost as bemusing today as it was yesterday. I tried to back Tournament Host Miguel Angel Jimenez at [9.4] overnight but I didn't get matched.

Eduardo de la Riva still has his nose in front on -12 but he's closely followed by Matteo Manassero and Simon Khan on -11, with Mig, Hennie Otto and David Lynn on -10 and then there's a host of others on -9. My pre-event pick, Oliver Fisher is amongst the eight players on -8 and none of those can be discounted either. It's going to be an entertaining day.

I like Mig and I would have backed him at [9.4]- he's the experienced multiple winner in the mix that might just steer a steady ship to the winning line, while everyone else gets jumpy, but there's enough doubts for me to leave him be for now at his current price of less than [9.0]. I have no idea what his hosting duties included yesterday evening but it's just possible it involved more than the odd glass of Rioja and how will he react to pondering how to hand himself the trophy should victory seem likely?

No doubt there will be plenty of twists and turns in-running and I'll be watching and waiting to see how the final day develops. For the record, the two previous winners at Aloha, Lee Westwood and Thomas Levet were bang there with a round to go so a winner from off the pace may not be as likely as the open looking leaderboard suggests. Westwood entered round four leading by one in 2007 and Levet trailed by one a year later. Incidentally, Westwood had been the third round leader in 2008 too and Oliver Fisher, vanquished by Levet in the playoff, had also started the final round one behind Westwood.

Over in the States, I was really disappointed by the finish to round three by my first in-running wager of the week, Kenny Perry. He appeared to be playing nicely and on -8, two under for the day, he was making serene progress up the leaderboard, and he was matched at a lot less than I'd backed him at. But after making the turn he missed a makeable birdie putt at the tricky 10th before failing to birdie the easy 11th and that signalled the beginning of the end. He three-putted the 12th to make bogey and the wheels fell off after that. It was disappointing because the course is clearly getting tougher and the experienced old heads are coming to the fore - it should have suited an old pro like Perry.

Former winners Retief Goosen and Jim Furyk are now tied at the top on -11, with Sang-Moon Bae and Jason Dufner a shot back in a tie for third. John Mallinger and the veteran Ken Duke are a further shot behind on -9, with Chez Reavie, Ernie Els and Luke Donald on -8.

Given the record of third round leaders, I quite like Furyk here and I've backed him at [4.6]. Over the first 11 years of the event, seven winners have led or been tied for the lead (five led outright). Goosen came from one back in 2009 and Gary Woodland two last year. The inaugural winner, John Huston was four off the lead and in 2008, Sean O'Hair came from three back - thanks largely to a Stewart Cink collapse.

Goosen is nursing an injured back and has an appalling final round record nowadays anyway. My doubts over Dufner were aired yesterday and Bae was all over the shop at times in round three and he might not get away with such sloppiness today. Like Dufner and Bae, Mallinger and Duke are also looking for their first PGA Tour wins and Furyk might just get his own way in front.

It's no coincidence that the top two have won here before and that they're both experienced US Open winners. This place gets tougher as the week goes on and a solid and dependable steady round may well be enough for Jim. If this event was played out three times from here I'd have to fancy him to convert at least once and his odds of [4.6] are more than fair.

I've also had a small wager on Ernie Els at [38.0]. Another veteran US Open winner, Els is desperate to get his head in front in order to qualify for the US Masters. Coming from slightly off the pace here might just aid the Big Easy and if the leaders struggle he could be the one to profit.

I'll be back tomorrow with the De-Brief.

10:35 - March 17, 2012

We've reached the halfway stage of both this week's events, the Open de Andalucía and the Transitions Championship and I have to confess, having been engrossed with the Cheltenham Festival, I've barely seen any of the action so far.

After a torrid week's punting at Prestbury Park I was hoping to get stuck into the golf this morning in an attempt to claw back some losses but having been through the halfway leaderboard in Spain umpteen times I think the County Hurdle was easier!

On a jam-packed leaderboard, Eduardo de la Riva holds sway by a single stroke over a bunch of five, with another eight players all tied for seventh, a further shot back. It's very tight and crammed with quality.

Paul Krishnamurty has done it yet again with his Find Me A 100 Winner column. Tommy Fleetwood, advised at whopping [170.0], is one of those tied for second. Alongside Tommy is first round leader Matteo Manassero, tournament host Miguel Angel Jimenez, Damien McGrane and Pablo Larrazabal. Amongst those two off the lead are fairly recent winners Michael Hoey, Hennie Otto and Robert Rock, as well as a couple of class acts on the comeback trail in Edoardo Molinari and Oliver Wilson. It looks too tough to call at this stage and I'm hanging fire for now.

My main fancy, Alejandro Canizares has been a disappointment. He started the event poorly before recovering well on day one and then yesterday he looked as though he might just tag himself on to the leading bunch but then finished disastrously. James Morrison started well but it didn't last and he ended up missing the cut and Oliver Fisher has fared best so far. He starts round three on -4 - four off the lead.

Over in the States, my sole pick, Jonathan Byrd, has made the cut but only just, so it's a case of back to the drawing board there too.

Jason Dufner has started well again (he led after day one at last week's WGC Cadillac Championship) and on -10, he leads first round leader, Padraig Harrington and William McGirt by two. Luke Donald and last week's Puerto Rico Open champ George McNeil are amongst those on -7 and tied for ninth on -6, there's a quality quartet made up of Sergio Garcia, previous winner Jim Furyk, pre-event fancy John Senden and Champions Tour star Kenny Perry. This one doesn't look any easier than the Open de Andalucía but I have at least found one I felt worth backing.

Dufner is bogey-free so far this week but he just can't be trusted to keep that up. He will win an event sooner or later and he came mighty close last year, losing in playoffs at both the WM Phoenix Open and the PGA Championship but until he does win one, I just don't want to back him. And I suspect when he does break his duck it won't be from the front. McGirt has never been in such a lofty position and can't be fancied, whilst Harrington hasn't won on either of the main tours since he took the 2088 PGA Championship. Yesterday's over-par effort (following a career best course record 61 on Thursday) wasn't exactly encouraging either.

Luke Donald is my idea of the likeliest winner but there's no value in his price of [5.6]. McNeil looks fairly priced at around [28.0] and confidence must be sky high but can he really go back-to-back? I looked at Senden closely before the off but felt given how hard he finds it to win he looked too short and at [24.0] now, he still does but one who looks worth taking a chance on is Kenny Perry.

KP is more than capable of low scoring and he could easily put in a low one today and move right into the mix. This time last month he was breaking the 36-hole scoring record on the Champions Tour (in Florida) at the ACE Group Classic, where he opened up with rounds of 64 and 62 before coasting home by five on the final day. He's always been a streaky player, who can get hot and stay hot and he's a multiple winner who shouldn't be a triple-figure price.

I'll be back either tonight or tomorrow with another look at the state of play. I'm hoping to see an opportunity arise in Spain this afternoon but I'm going to be cautious. After Cheltenham, I need to be!

Open de Andalucía Pre-Event Bets
Alejandro Canizares @ [60.0]
Oliver Fisher @ [130.0]
James Morrison @ [250.0]

Transitions Championship Pre-Event Bet
Jonathan Byrd @ [60.0]

In-Running Plays
Kenny Perry @ [100.0]
Jim Furyk @ [4.6]
Ernie Els @ [38.0]

Steve puts this week's US PGA Tour event under the microscope. What sort of player will prosper at Copperhead?...

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US Masters 2012: Bet on this trio now for the early value

US Masters / Paul Krishnamurty / 14 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Brandt Snedeker has made a splash at Augusta before

"Nick Watney has been friendless in the Augusta market so far, drifting from [40.0] to a recent high of [60.0]. However, weekend rounds of 69 and 67 offer hope that he's finding his range again, and the next fortnight offers a couple of good opportunities."

With Rory McIlroy gobbling up attention at the head of the market punters are forgetting about other Augusta contenders with some spectacular prices available on good players with a genuine chance of Masters glory, says Paul Krishnamurty

If there's a single defining feature of current golf outright markets, it's confusion. Punters are still trying to adjust to golf's new order, where Tiger Woods is no longer top dog and among his biggest rivals over the past decade, only Phil Mickelson remains a leading contender.

Apart from the general consensus that Rory McIlroy is now the man to beat, odds about everyone else seem to fluctuate wildly. One good week, and a player's odds for upcoming events collapses. Likewise a bad fortnight and players drift markedly, sometimes to three or four times the level they began that bad 'spell'.

Take the example of last week's winner Justin Rose. At the beginning of March, Justin was available around [120.0] for the Masters. Since Sunday he's been matched down to [32.0]. Shrewdies aware of his wider Augusta credentials will be sitting pretty right now, either banking their profit already or leaving a substantial 'free bet' for next month's major.

It is a stone-cold certainty that something similar will happen to impressive performers in the three weeks between now and the Masters. All three PGA Tour events will attract elite fields, likely to yield champions that then become popular picks. With an eye on past form in these events and at Augusta, I reckon there's plenty of mileage backing the following trio now for the Masters.

Back Nick Watney @ [55.0]
http://sports.betfair.com/Index.do?mi=103455189&ex=1&origin=MRL&rfr=3013
Partly in response to a slow start to 2012, and also perhaps a failure to land a spectacular gamble in last year's Masters, Watney has been friendless so far, drifting from [40.0] to a recent high of [60.0]. However, weekend rounds of 69 and 67 offer hope that he's finding his range again, and the next fortnight offers a couple of good opportunities. He's finished top-13 in each of the last three Transitions Championship
renewals, and has finished fourth before at next week's venue, Bay Hill.
Contending seriously for either event will probably spark another gamble, as Watney has often been touted as the identikit Augusta winner since making the top-20 on his first three cracks at the Masters. Twelve months ago, he started amongst the favourites for the season's opening major at around [17.5], so a bet now at three times that level has obvious trading mileage.

Back Brandt Snedeker @ [90.0]
Similarly, Snedeker's early Augusta efforts make him very much a player to keep on side at this time of year. Remember, Augusta is the sort of track that generally penalises experience, which makes Snedeker's third place on his first visit as a pro in 2008 read even better. One of the game's finest short-game exponents, he also finished 15th last year, and with a win to his name already in 2012, is bound to have his supporters at these big odds. Indeed, given that he's twice finished top-eight before in the Transitions, Brandt could well be the next subject of a Rose-style gamble.

Back Martin Laird @ [130.0]
While Laird remains very much an outsider for the Masters at [130.0], his recent efforts have really caught the eye and the next fortnight could well be very lucrative. The Scot will be defending champion at Bay Hill, and having finished fifth last year at Copperhead, is shortlisted this week too. Though he finished down the field at Doral last week, Laird ranked second for greens in regulation, retaining the excellent ball-striking seen previously during his run to the quarter-finals of the World Matchplay.
Laird's Augusta debut made few waves, but 20th place was an excellent first attempt in such a demanding Major. As a relatively long-hitter with a high ball-flight, Laird has the game for Augusta.
In any case, at these big odds, there's little meaningful risk about an in-form, improving player.

There was drama galore in the final round of the WGC Cadillac with big ramifications for the Masters betting. Tiger Woods pulled out injured, Rory McIlroy finished strongly again, and Justin Rose won his first WGC event. Mike Norman reports......

Rory McIlroy is the new World Number One after a two-stroke victory at the Honda Classic. But joint runner-up there Tiger Woods was in imperious form himself and things are tight in the Betfair US Masters winner market....

With the first big event of 2012 completed and just five weeks until the Masters, what did we learn from the World Matchplay? Paul Krishnamurty weighs up the performances and progress of the big-names....

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Simon Rowlands: Value to be had with Cheltenham Festival Specials

Timeform Debate / Simon Rowlands / 06 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will the Irish train more than 9 Festival winners this time round?

"...accommodate those who think it will be a bonanza Festival for Irish-trained horses again."

With Betfair having opened up a large range of Cheltenham Festival Special markets, Timeform's Head of Research and Development pinpoints just where the value lies...

Of all the excuses for not having a bet at the Cheltenham Festival, "there was not enough opportunity" would be about the least plausible if ever used. There are 27 races, featuring around 500 runners, and there exists just about every imaginable way of siding with or against each horse and each human participant.

In addition to win, place, forecast, back and lay, ante-post and in-running - to mention some of the main ones - there are several one-off markets on Betfair, to be found on the "Cheltenham Festival Specials" tab of GB horseracing.

As in any other form of betting, "form" study - or, more precisely in this instance, a consideration of history - is important. While some of the markets are (or at least should be) straightforward derivatives of prices to be found elsewhere, others require a bit more figuring out.

The following historical tables may help.

I will leave the predicting of the official description of the going for the opening race to others. Some say Clerk of The Course Simon Claisse calls it what he would like it be, rather than what it actually is: I couldn't possibly comment.

It should be possible to have a stab at the top jockey and top trainer betting by consideration of the top jockeys' and the top trainers' intended runners: Ruby Walsh is favourite at [1.69] to back for the former, while Willie Mullins is shortest at [2.52] to back for the latter.

One market that does interest me is that for Irish-trained winners. The Irish raiding party has won 32% of races over the last 10 years, which translates to an expectation of 8.5 winners from 27 races, though they did surpass that handsomely in 2011 with a record 13.

Yet, "more than 9 winners" (something which has been achieved only twice in history) is the clear market leader at [2.38]. The Irish have a strong team again, but that sort of price smacks of availability bias: it happened last year so it should happen again.

This looks a good opportunity to become a layer, if you are not one already, and to accommodate those who think it will be a bonanza Festival for Irish-trained horses again.

The longest SP winner market may tempt in those who look for "good things" at short prices. 212 of 236 Festival races in the last 10 years have gone to horses shorter than 33/1, 23 to horses at between 33/1 and 50/1 inclusive, and just 1 to a horse (dear old Mister McGoldrick in 2008) starting at bigger than 50/1.

If you treat these frequencies as indicative of probabilities, you get (remembering that even one 33/1+ winner trumps the "unders" and just one winner at >50/1 hands it to the "overs") a fair price of around [1.2] for the middle category, which has delivered in 9 years out of 10.

Don't let me stop you if that sort of price is your thing. But, as explained last year, percentage chances based on Betfair SPs as a true indication of horses' probabilities suggest the fair odds should be bigger than that. There is also the possibility of a remarkably large number of short-priced winners at this year's Festival. I'll pass.

A market that interests me more is the "Biggest Winning Distance" one. Historical margins at the Festival need to take into account the fact that there were fewer races in the past than now and that the same margins now would have been returned as shorter prior to 2009 due to tinkering in how margins are returned by the BHB/BHA.

The first table adjusts for these two factors in the "adjusted margin" column and adjusts for the latter factor in the "maximum adjusted margin" column.

The frequencies for margins come in at 232 of 236 races at less than 16 lengths, 3 at 16 to 22 lengths inclusive and just one (24-length winner Junior last year) at further. That implies fair odds of approximately [1.60], [3.8] and [9.0] respectively, and in this instance I think the case stacks up for backing "unders", which have delivered in 7 out of 10 years.

Doubters will point out that the preponderance of short-priced favourites increases the chance of at least one of them "lagging up". Well, it does, but not by as much as most people probably imagine.

Taken throughout jump racing, a 6/4 winner can be expected to win by only one and a half times as far as a 16/1 winner. It is only at very short prices of 4/9 or shorter that winning margins really start to take off.

This Cheltenham Festival may look easier to crack than most. But the vast majority of the races will still be ultra-competitive, and it's a good bet that none of them will be won by a monster margin.

Recommendations:

lay "more than 9 Irish winners" to lose 2 pts at 2.6 or shorter
4 pts back "biggest win distance less than 16 lengths" at 1.8 or bigger

...........
Timeform TV Focus made 138 points profit (at Betfair SP) in year one. Get the expert view on the big races at Cheltenham with TV Focus. Find Out More!

Although racing has entered its usual quiet storm before next week's Cheltenham Festival, several leading Grand National hopefuls have been flexing their muscles in recent days, so jumps handicapper Phil Turner casts his eye over the latest picture for the Aintree showpiece.......

Timeform Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch gives you his guide to the opening day of Cheltenham 2012.......

Timeform give an overview of the weekend's racing, featuring a number of horses with the upcoming Festivals on their agenda......

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Pakistan v England Third Test: Dreadful value on tourists

Pakistan v England / Ed Hawkins / 01 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Kevin Pietersen's inability to play spin is a huge concern for England

"It is impossible to recommend England following their implosion in the second innings in Abu Dhabi when they were shot out for 72"

Ed Hawkins has lost patience with England and can't understand why Pakistan are not favourites for the third match, which starts in Dubai on Friday

Pakistan
Pakistan, not surprisingly, are expected to be unchanged following their sensational victory in the second Test at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in Abu Dhabi last week.

Umar Gul, who felt his calf in the first innings in that game, is fit while Asad Shafiq's 58 and 43 - vital contributions - secure his spot just as there were whispers that Umar Akmal would come into the team.

England
Ian Bell should be fit despite suffering from a stomach bug. Bell's place is apparently not under threat despite a return of 36 runs in four innings.

England, surely, will look to replace Eoin Morgan with Ravi Bopara. Morgan has 41 runs in the series and although he is faring marginally better than Bell he is considered more vulnerable because he is newest to the team.

In that thinking you may have hit upon a weakness in the England camp. Batsmen are given chance after chance and there is a strong case for saying Kevin Pietersen should sit this one out. He has only 17 runs.

No matter. England must jettison one of the underperforming three. Reputation and past performances should count for little. The management should decide who remains purely on the basis of who is most likely to counter the spin of Saeed Ajmal and Abdur Rehman. They can't all survive on that basis.

Venue and conditions
One could be forgiven for reckoning that we have a pretty good idea of how the Dubai surface will play given this was the venue for the first Test. But in reality England were so abject that it is hard to tell. The match lasted barely three days as England succumbed to spin. In their two innings 14 wickets fell to Ajmal and Rehman. So it will spin then. Otherwise Pakistan batted reasonably well on it, posting 338.

Match odds
It is impossible to recommend England following their implosion in the second innings in Abu Dhabi when they were shot out for 72. Ajmal and Rehman, the spin threat, have got into the heads of the England batsmen and when that happens the torment can only continue.

England are [2.76] favourites which seems ludicrous given that they have twice been outplayed. Pakistan are [2.86] and the draw is [3.45]. One wonders what it will take for the market to realise that in these conditions England are vastly inferior.

The best advice for a wager is to back Pakistan with a view to laying off, just in case they take things easy with this being a dead rubber. There have been positive noises coming out of the camp this week, though, claiming they are "desperate" to win 3-0. At least at some stage the spinners should given them a stranglehold to make the trade pay.

As for England, their spirits are good, apparently. James Anderson, rather curiously, said: "The mood is pretty good, considering the position we're are in in this series."

Top Pakistan batsman
Mohammad Hafeez and Misbah-ul-Haq are almost neck and neck in the race to be top Pakistan batsman in the series. Hafeez, who has 156 runs, is around [5.00] for honours in the first innings. Misbah, on 148, could go off at around [6.00].

Top England batsman
As we have written before in this series Bell, Morgan and Pietersen are unbackable in this market and you can probably chuck in Andrew Strauss, too. The first three have no clue as to how to play spin. Certainly Morgan looks the most clueless, if you'll pardon the clumsy expression. It is to be hoped he plays because he would represent a solid lay in the to score a 50 in the first innings market.

Recommended bet
Back to lay Pakistan @ [2.86] in 3rd Test

He's far from being the most obvious candidate for a Test captain but Misbah Ul Haq's tenure as leader of the Pakistan cricket team has been remarkable, especially in the longest format. What's the secret, wonders Frank Gregan....

Ed Hawkins says England's defeat in Abu Dhabi shows how they have taken their position as the No 1-ranked side for granted...

Tourists lose from a winnable position as Pakistan spinners cast their spell...

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Liverpool v Manchester United: United the mathematical value

FA Cup / Soccer Widow / 27 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ryan Giggs has had five days' rest since his last match and is raring to go

"The market odds reflect these probabilities quite accurately and there is little value in any of the prices offered, although United remains the slight favourite in our view."

Soccer Widow uses her trusted calculator and spreadsheets to work out the value bets ahead of this mouth-watering clash. Nothing leaps out as outstanding but United do a look a tad over-priced...

Widely regarded as one of the most significant rivalries in world football, fans of both teams will relish this bonus cup match for differing reasons. Liverpool should be on a high following their Wednesday aggregate defeat of Manchester City in the Carling Cup semi-final, whilst United will not want their defeat of the same City side to be in vain, following that classic encounter during the 3rd round of the FA Cup earlier this month.

Following a run of three consecutive league defeats at Anfield, Sir Alex Ferguson experimented with his line-up and secured a positive result with the 1-1 draw on October 15th. Expect United's team-sheet to be once again structured with the intention of nullifying Liverpool's most potent threats, most significantly Steven Gerrard and Craig Bellamy, who have galvanized most of Liverpool's performances in recent weeks. There is also the element of revenge following United's 1-0 victory at Old Trafford in last season's FA Cup 3rd Round, plus the fact this game is the first between the two clubs since the infamous Evra-Suarez bust-up, and the Uruguayan hitman misses this game as part of his eight-match ban. All in all, the appetite is whetted for another intriguing battle, and of course, these teams never need an excuse to go at each other's throats from the first whistle...

How do the statistics stand up?

Head-2-Head (Liverpool Home vs. Man Utd Away, all competitions, 15 matches since 1998

• 6 home wins (40%), 3 draws (20%) and 6 away wins (40%)
• 3 matches have ended 0-1 (20%), and another three finished 3-1 (20%)
• 7 matches under 2.5 goals (46.7%); 10 matches under 3.5 goals (66.7%); 14
matches under 4.5 goals (93.3%)
• Liverpool has 'won to nil' only twice (13.3%); United, 3 times (20%)
• In 9 of 15 games since 1998 both teams scored (60%)

Liverpool's 25 most recent home games in all competitions

• 13 home wins (52%), 11 draws (44%), 1 away win (4%): Last 6 (most recent first):
H-D-H-D-D-D
• 6 of the last 25 home matches ended 1-1 (24%)
• 10 clean sheets in 25 home games (40%)
• In 14 of the last 25 home games, both teams scored (56%)
• 23 of 25 games finished with less than 4.5 goals (92%)
• Goal numbers in the last 6 home matches (most recent first): 2-2-5-0-1-0

Man Utd's 25 most recent away games in all competitions

• 5 home wins (20%), 5 draws (20%), 15 away wins (60%): Last 6 (most recent first):
A-A-H-A-A-H)
• 4 of the last 25 away matches ended 1-1 (16%)
• 12 clean sheets in last 25 away games (48%)
• In 10 of the last 25 away games, both teams scored (40%)
• 21 of 25 matches finished with less than 4.5 goals (84%)
• Goal numbers if the last 6 away matches (most recent first): 2-3-0-5-2-1

Summary:

Comparing Liverpool's last 25 home matches with Manchester United's last 25 away games (all competitions) produces the likelihood of a draw at 32%. However, head-to-head, they have drawn just 3 times in 15 matches (20%), and are also level on 6 wins apiece (40%). Based on averages of each team's performance over the respective last 25 home/away games, Soccerwidow computes 38% chance of a Liverpool victory, 26% the draw, and 36% in United's favour. The market odds reflect these probabilities quite accurately and there is little value in any of the prices offered, although United remains the slight favourite in our view, purely based on the fact Liverpool will have had just two days' recovery from its last game, compared to United's five days.

Turning to the goal markets, 'Under 4.5 goals' seems overpriced: Liverpool with 92% of its last 25 home games under 4.5, and Manchester United with 84% of its last 25 away fixtures below this threshold. Therefore, the combined likelihood, taking the H2H performances also into account, computes to 91.7%, whilst the market price is based on 88.5%. This is a tiny mathematical advantage or 'value' bet.

This game is almost too close to call and what little significant value Soccerwidow has found is presented below.

Recommended Bets:

a) Back Under 4.5 Goals (available odds: [1.13]; zero odds are [1.1])

b) Lay 0-0 (odds [12.00]; real odds are [13.64])

c) Back United to win (odds: [2.88]; real odds are [2.78])

Sheffield United and West Brom start their home FA Cup fourth-round ties against Birmingham and Norwich as favourites, but Michael Lintorn doesn't expect either to win......

It took a penalty shoot-out for Brighton to edge past non-league Wrexham and set up this tie, but now that they're here they'll fancy upsetting the odds......

Mike Norman takes a look at three all-Premier League clashes as well as Stoke's trip to Championship side Derby, and he believes Bolton can follow up their win against Liverpool by beating Swansea....

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