Avvia Premiership Betting: Harlequins are best title value

Quins are 4.67/2 to be Grand Final winners, with Leicester 2.021/1 and Saracens 3.052/1 both fancied ahead of them. To finish top of the regular season, Harlequins are anything up to 8.88/1.

Harlequins took the Premiership by storm last season and they produced a brave performance to beat Leicester in the Grand Final. Ralph Ellis reckons the defending champs rate the best value ahead of next weekend's big kick-off...

They are the champions, but they have signed only a couple of youngsters in pre-season. It seems what's good enough for Manchester City has also been the blueprint for Aviva Premiership winners Harlequins this summer. After winning their first title they have added only promising Kiwi fly-half Ben Botica and upgraded Academy prop Darryl Marfo to the senior squad.

The difference is that while Roberto Mancini's side started the new campaign as firm favourites in the betting to retain their title, Quins will kick off with doubts about their potential to do the same. They are 4.67/2 to be Grand Final winners, with Leicester 2.021/1 and Saracens 3.052/1 both fancied ahead of them. To finish top of the regular season, Harlequins are anything up to 8.88/1.

Now maybe it's because I developed a soft spot for the side from the Stoop after backing them to be successful at the start of last season's play-offs(http://betting.betfair.com/rugby/aviva-premiership/aviva-premiership-play-offs-robshaw-determined-to-lead-quins-to-glory-090512-201.html), but it looks to me like another great value bet. All the things that held true in early May are still in place, and while the recruitment might not have been exciting since, the fundamental strengths of the club remain.

As Dean Richards returns to rugby charged with bringing Newcastle back to the Premiership, its hard not to think that his departure from The Stoop was what kick started a major change in fortune. The Bloodgate scandal emphasised a culture that put winning first and the method of getting there second. Since then Conor O'Shea has taken a different tack as director of rugby by putting the method first, in the belief that good habits in training and on match day are what ultimately creates results.

O'Shea has been doing some interesting things in the build up to the opening day fixture at London Wasps next Saturday. They played two friendlies on the same afternoon last weekend, beating first London Scottish and then their Heineken Cup pool rivals Connacht. O'Shea's idea was to give a full pre-season workout to 30 players rather than have everybody only get half a game.

The other big development has been convincing Danny Care to sign a new three year contract, and if anybody can benefit from O'Shea's ethics then it is the England scrum-half. It has taken Care several scrapes with trouble, but he finally caught up to the idea that being an international rugby player would also mean acting like a professional athlete. We saw on the summer tour to South Africa what giving up drink and engrossing himself in Stuart Lancaster's new disciplined England culture could do for him, and the word from The Stoop is that Care has brought those principles back to his club for pre-season.

Leicester will inevitably be strong again, and Saracens continue to invest in their playing and coaching staff as they prepare to move into their new home in Barnet. But Quins proved last season when they led the table at Christmas, and stayed there for the rest of the campaign, that they deserved to be taken seriously - and they are unquestionably the best value bet ahead of a new campaign.

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Aviva Premiership Betting: High-scoring match at the Madejski

Aviva Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 23 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ben Youngs returns from international duty to Leicester's ranks

"Irish have lost in front of a huge crowd before mind you, but the last three St Patrick’s Day matches have resulted in high-scoring events."

There are some decent matches going on this weekend but the better bets lie in the total points and win margin markets rather than the match odds, says Geoffrey Riddle.

Leicester look a fair bet to crash London Irish's tardy St Patrick's day party at the Madejski Stadium but it may be better to take a different approach in order to eke out a decent profit from Sunday's live Premiership match.

The pair clashed in the Premiership Grand Final three seasons ago but since that time the fortunes of the two teams could barely be more contrasting.

Irish lie in ninth place, having lost seven of their last eight fixtures in all competitions. The last time they recorded a victory was against Gloucester in the Anglo Welsh Cup on the first weekend of February.

Leicester on the other hand remain in the hunt for a play-off place and picked up their first silverware of the season when beating Nothampton at Worcester last Sunday to carry off the Anglo-Welsh Cup.

As far as the match betting and handicap betting is concerned, the Tigers look decent value at anything bigger than [1.5] or under a six-point deficit. They welcome back six of their senior internationals. Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Manu Tuilagi and Ben Youngs are named in the starting line-up after starring in England's surprisingly effective Six Nations campaign, with Tom Croft and Martin Castrogiovanni among the replacements.

Toby Flood, used as a substitute in the LV= Cup Final victory, takes over at fly-half, and there is a return to the squad for centre Anthony Allen, who has recovered from a knee injury.

Irish's record at home is poor, having lost to Bath, Edinburgh, Racing Metro, Cardiff and most recently Northampton. This fixture is slightly different, however, as all the St Patrick's Day celebrations usually bumps up the crowd to in excess of 20,000.

Irish have lost in front of a huge crowd before mind you, but the last three St Patrick's Day matches have resulted in high-scoring events.

Last year Irish beat Exeter 39-17, and the year before that Sale spoiled the fun for total points backers by losing 38-0. With Northampton getting beaten 32-27 three seasons ago it is clear points could be on the menu once again.

Three of the last four matches between Leicester and Irish have produced more than 45 points, so anything less than around 40 should be seized upon.

As was well publicised just before the Six Nations, Leicester have scored the most tries in the league this season. They have amassed 48 tries and have registered five try-bonus points from their 17 matches. Despite languishing in 9th place, Irish have an excellent array of attacking players capable of striking from most parts of the field. They have scored 32 tries this season and with the weather set fair, the total points looks a better market to invest in than the 80 minutes or handicap betting.

Harlequins are the second-highest tryscorers in the league with 40 this season and they will fancy their chances of accounting for Bath at The Stoop on Saturday.

Bath, however, are a far better defensive unit than they are given credit for. The West Country side have conceded the same amount of tries as the much-vaunted defence of Saracens, and the visitors will be hoping to take advantage of their hosts' current malaise.

Quins have dominated the league this season, and have topped the Premiership since round three. They have won just three of their last seven matches and this could be closer than many anticipate. With Bath likely to be given at least a converted try start, it may be worth backing Harlequins to win by 1-12 points in the winning margin market.
The other live fixture this weekend is the mismatch between Northampton and Wasps at Franklin's Gardens. Wasps may have finally snapped their losing streak, which totalled nine consecutive matches after beating London Irish last week.

Northampton have lost just one Premiership encounter at home since February last year and certainly merit quotes of around [1.08] in the match betting.

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3pt overs 42.5 pts in the total points market London Irish v Leicester
1pt Harlequins to beat Bath by 1-12 points

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Aviva Premiership Final: The key men

Aviva Premiership / Editor / 26 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Schalk Brits can dominate the scrum for Saracens

"Their current form and two wins over the Tigers this season suggests the value lies with Sarries."

Rugby writer and Sarries expert Simon Franklin provides the lowdown on the key men who he believes could determine thefate of the Aviva Premiership...

Saracens meet champions Leicester Tigers in a Premiership final rematch on Saturday at Twickenham and it 's shaping up to be another gripping encounter. Last season's showdown was a classic confrontation as the Tigers won 33-27 and this one should be equally close.

The Men in Black come into the game on a 12-match winning run, which included a victory at Welford Road two months ago, but they still start the match as 13-8 outsiders. Their current form and two wins over the Tigers this season suggests the value lies with Sarries [2.66].

One of their key men will be fly-half Owen Farrell. The son of rugby league legend Andy has been the surprise package this season. It will be his first appearance at Twickenham but the 19-year-old's maturity and exceptional kicking game won't let him down. He should be nailed on as Sarries' top points scorer in a team which doesn't score many tries.

Ernst Joubert scored twice in their defeat to the Tigers last year and also claimed a try in their season opener against London Irish at Twickenham so he clearly loves playing at the stadium. At decent odds, he could be worth a bet to score during the final.

Schalk Brits is their eye-catching hooker with the ability of a world class back. The crowd pleaser also scored against the Exiles at Twickenham and will be keen to guide Sarries to their first major trophy for 13 years. Brits is a potential man-of-the-match this weekend.

The Tigers [1.65] won't give up their title easily and Ben Youngs is crucial to their chances. The England scrum half, who has the most assists in the league, has the talent to dominate the match. He scored a try in a virtuoso display last year and the occasion should help him return to his best form. He looks likely to rival Brits for the man-of-the-match.

Alesana Tuilagi is this year's top Premiership scorer with 13 tries and he can add to that tally this weekend. Sarries have conceded the fewest points this season but the giant winger is unstoppable on his day and will surely cross the whitewash on Saturday.

England fly-half Toby Flood is another proven match winner for the champions. His form has been patchy recently but he will be keen to impress as the build up to the World Cup continues. His experience will be an asset and he is set to battle with Farrell for top points scorer in the final.

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Aviva Premiership Final Betting: Sarries will rise to Leicester challenge

Aviva Premiership / Ralph Ellis / 24 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Owen Farrell's kicking has proved very productive for Sarries this season

"If there's one team that rises to the challenge of giving total commitment for 80 minutes - as they showed against Gloucester last week -it is the South African-influenced Sarries."

Ralph Ellis believes that Mark McCall will use a perceived injustice to fire his men up for Saturday's big match. And if they get the bit between their teeth, they could prove unstoppable...

When it comes to galvanising a team for a big game, nothing beats a sense of injustice. Get your players to think the press, the fans, the referees and officials are all against them, build up the anger a bit more. Then watch them go.

This time last year Saracens were smarting when director of rugby Brendan Venter was banned from the Premiership's Grand Final. He'd got into a row with some Leicester fans for daring to stand up in front of them to watch the game. And the full might of the RFU came crashing down on him.

Wind the clock on and now it is Sarries' opponents Leicester who have been in trouble. Their rugby director Richard Cockerill was picked up during the semi-final win over Northampton on a local radio station microphone abusing World Cup referee Wayne Barnes - coincidentally the man who will be in charge of Sunday's Twickenham clash. "He's meant to be a Test referee in the biggest match of the season. It's not bloody good enough," Cockerill shouted. And just for good measure his head coach Matt O'Connor was also reported to have angrily punched - and broken - a Perspex shield around the dugout.

Yet guess what? While South African Venter felt the full might of the disciplinary process it seems that former-England hooker Cockerill, and his sidekick, have been let off. The RFU's elite referee development manager Brian Campsall told a tribunal he was "too busy writing in my notebook to take note of anything that was being said by the coaches."

Venter may have moved on from Vicarage Road, but you can be sure there will be some men with long memories about last season's perceived injustice. They lost by just six points to Leicester, 33-27, and must have felt that Venter's presence could have inspired the converted try that would have turned defeat to victory. New team boss Mark McCall may lack the abrasive edge of his predecessor, but that won't stop him having a grumble in the dressing room that it's been one law for one club and one for another. They will also be asking if one of their players would have got off as lightly as Manu Tuilagi for that outrageous assault on Chris Ashton.

McCall's men were already a value price at [2.74] to win at Twickenham. They hit a sensational run of form in the second half of the season, putting together 11 back to back wins from the start of January, a run which crucially included beating Leicester at Welford Road. Owen Farrell's goal-kicking under pressure has come through time after time, and if there's one team that rises to the challenge of giving total commitment for 80 minutes - as they showed against Gloucester last week -it is the South African-influenced Sarries.

Give them a bit more reason to be riled, as the RFU's blazers have done, and Cockerill might just find he's got something more to have a moan about.

Five things you might not know about Wayne Barnes

1. Born April 1979 in Gloucestershire, he started playing mini-rugby for Bream RFC then turned into a promising second row for Whitecross School.

2. He was 15 when he started refereeing - taking charge of Bream Thirds v Berry Hill Wappers - for something to do while he was injured. He went on playing for the University 1st XV after moving to East Anglia to study law, but by then was refereeing seriously on Saturday as well.

3. At 21 he became the youngest ever appointed to the National Panel of referees, and made his Test debut five years later

4. He qualified as a barrister and specialised in criminal law - but gave up the bench in 2005 to become a full time official

5. He names former Sale player Nigel Yates - also a lawyer and fellow Premiership ref - as his biggest influence

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Aviva Premiership Betting: Bath will show no mercy to desperate Falcons

Aviva Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 06 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Newcastle will be lucky to come away from the Rec with their Premiership status intact

"Bath will be gunning for it with Danny Grewcock, Butch James and Luke Watson all eager to go out with a bang."

Newcastle and Leeds are fighting for their lives as Geoffrey Riddle discusses the big matches and best bets on the final weekend of Premiership action.

It will be one of the great ironies if Newcastle are relegated from the Premiership this weekend that their flyhalf, Jimmy Gopperth, will finish the season as the highest points scorer in the league.

The Kiwi has scored over 66 per cent of Newcastle's points so far this campaign. The Falcons travel to Bath in hope rather than expectation at securing the bonus-point victory that would secure their survival in the top flight.

They have lost their last seven matches, their poorest run for 15 years and it is fair to say that if they stay up they will have limped over the line.

Their record down at the Recreation Ground is poor, too, with only one success in their last 13 visits to the West Country.

Newcastle's problems have stemmed from their chronic inability to cross the tryline, and with only 25 tries this season they have scored the fewest.

Gopperth has been extraordinary this season, and he is the second-most accurate kicker in the section behind Charlie Hodgson with 78 of his 96 attempts on goal a success.

Newcastle's strength, however, is totally redundant against Bath, who are one of the cleanest sides in the Premiership.

Bath have conceded only six yellow cards this season, but what is most impressive is that they have conceded the fewest scoring penalties.Little opportunity for Gopperth therefore.

Without the comfort blanket of Gopperth's points, it is difficult to see where Newcastle are going to trouble Bath, who need a big win to propel them into the semi-final picture.

Last weekend, when the two sides met at Kingston Park, Newcastle could not play themselves out of their own half in the second period despite enjoying the advantage of a backing wind and they were lucky to not lose by more.

Sir Ian McGeechan has said that Bath will concentrate solely on manoeuvring into a position where victory is assured before they even consider the aspect of four tries and the high street layers have been shrewd to price the differential between the two teams at 14 points - two converted tries.

Betfair punters have a slight advantage, not necessarily in price, but in that the exchange offers a handicap of 13.5. Defeats by greater margins to Saracens and Gloucester recently indicate that Newcastle do suffer terrible beatings on the road to good sides and, although Bath fall just below that, they will be gunning for it with Danny Grewcock, Butch James and Luke Watson all eager to go out with a bang.

Fellow relegation candidates Leeds don't have it any easier with a trip to Northampton. Saints coach Jim Mallinder has made seven changes to the side that demolished Perpignan last week in the Heineken Cup, although England stars Ben Foden and Chris Ashton make the line-up.

Leeds are without their talismanic skipper, Macro Wentzel, who is nursing a calf muscle injury. The northerners lost by 20 points last time, and with Northampton on a roll of five wins from their last six matches it looks as if Franklin's Gardens will enjoy the last glimpse of Neil Back's gritty Leeds side in the Premiership.

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Aviva Premiership Betting: Bath can edge Twickenham clash

Rugby Union / Geoffrey Riddle / 22 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Guy Mercer and Bath should run out as the winners of Saturday's clash with Wasps

"Half of Bath’s ten league wins have been by seven points or fewer, which is a correlation of how frugally they score and., considering I make them favourites, Bath to defeat Wasps by 1-12 points looks the angle for me."

Geoffrey Riddle selects the best bets from this week's Aviva Premiership fixtures with his main focus Bath's meeting with Wasps at Twickenham on Saturday

The incident between Andy Powell and a few football fans in a West London bar earlier this week has completely overshadowed the St George's Day fixture between Wasps and Bath at Twickenham on Saturday.

Wasps are furious at their Wales international hogging the headlines when the focus really should be on the fine charity work both teams are doing for the Armed Forces. It may not sound important from a betting perspective, but taking your eye off the ball ahead of such an important clash often has serious ramifications.

Wasps have named what looks a patched up side anyway. Tom Varndell returns from an ankle ligament injury that was meant to rule him out for the season. Before suffering his injury in February, Varndell had scored six tries in the league and curiously five of those were in the first 40 minutes but he surely cannot be so sharp after such a layoff.

At full-back the High Wycombe club rely on the teenager Elliot Daly. Daly's performances at England Under-20 level have been sublime - he scored four tries against Italy a few months back - but playing at Twickenham in the Daily Mail Cup is a whole different ball game to lining up opposite Bath.

With Ben Jacobs slotting in at centre after recovering from injury alongside Riki Flutey, Bath will fancy their chances of putting pressure on the Wasps back-three and running their rivals ragged when in possession.

The sun is set to shine in Middlesex and with the expected carnival atmosphere the temptation would be to envisage a repeat of the high-scoring 35-19 scoreline that Bath beat Wasps by in the same fixture last season.

Bath played with a different expectation last season, however, and the decay in the Wasps ranks along with their extensive injury list this season means we could be in for a very different spectacle 12 months later.

Wasps ended a three game losing run with their 51-18 victory over Leeds on Sunday - the first time they have broken the half century mark in the Premiership since 2004. It was a strange result because they have scored the fewest points out of any team above them in the league table other than Bath.

Only Newcastle have scored fewer tries than the West Country club in the league and for a team who have been the very epitome of free-running, off-loading rugby for the past few seasons it is a very sad situation. Perhaps once the delicate matter between Steve Meehan and Sir Ian McGeechan is resolved at the end of the season things will improve at the Rec.

Half of Bath's ten league wins have been by seven points or fewer, which is a correlation of how frugally they score and., considering I make them favourites, Bath by 1-12 points looks the angle for me.

The other two live games between London Irish and Northampton and Gloucester's clash with Saracens at Vicarage Road are heavily dependent on team news.

Gloucester's victory over Northampton on Tuesday was just another illustration of the fine job Bryan Redpath has done orchestrating a West Country revival. Gloucester could be leading the Premiership, too, if the Cherry and Whites had not lost to the bottom four teams, a glaring and disgraceful statistic.

Still, at the business end, Gloucester have won four and drawn one of their meetings against their rivals in the top four which bodes well for their visit to Watford, where they have won on five of their last eight visits. With eight successive victories in the ledger though, Sarries are on their best run in Premiership history and although we were unlucky last week backing against Gloucester, I think the home side will just edge the contest and should be backed to win by 1-12 points.

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