League One Betting: Brentford strong enough to blunt Blades in Sky TV clash

Sheffield United have wobbled a few times at home this season, notably the amazing loss to basement club Hartlepool over Christmas, so I wouldn't be in a rush to snap up the 2.407/5 on offer.

The League One betting bonanza continues this Saturday, with the first of two live Sky TV games over the weekend. Alan Dudman thinks Brentford are the ones to side with in the early kick-off at Sheffield United, in a match where goals might be few and far between.

Sheffield United 2.407/5 v Brentford 3.4012/5, the draw 3.55n/a

Live on Sky Sports 2, Saturday 12:45

The Sky cameras have chosen the right game this Saturday, with Brentford chasing Doncaster for the position at the top of the table. Sheffield United are only two points behind with a game in hand, and a chance to bounce back from a surprising 4-0 defeat to Stevenage last weekend.

These two teams met earlier in the season in November, in which the Londoners prevailed 2-0. Brentford boss Uwe Rosler described the Blades as the best team in the league after that victory, but key to the performance was an early goal, which allowed Rosler's side to sit back and defend. Sheffield United couldn't break them down at all.

Match Odds:

Sheffield United have wobbled a few times at home this season, notably the amazing loss to basement club Hartlepool over Christmas, so I wouldn't be in a rush to snap up the 2.407/5 on offer. The Blades have been better on their travels too, collecting 10 wins compared to seven at Bramall Lane. Tactically games on the road suit them better, as they can soak up pressure and hit opponents on the counter attack, whereas home pressure and fans dictate a more attacking and commanding display - and that has not always happened.

Brentford appeal at the 3.309/4 odds, and have a fairly decent record away from Griffin Park this season. They have lost only five times, and have conceded only 19 goals on the road from 18 games. Their overall form is two defeats from their last six outings.

Regular readers of this column will know my previous with Rosler's side - in particular with late goals. This was advertised once again last weekend with their 1-0 win against Preston. The winner came in the 96th minute, the umpteenth time this seems to have happened. So remember, backing in-running, get the fingers hovering over the back or lay buttons to cash out.

Opta Stats:

Uwe Rosler's side have not netted in the first-half of any of their last five league games. Therefore I would be keen on using the half-time draw market to back at around 2.1411/10. This of course brings into play trading opportunities to get involved in the 0-0 correct scoreline, which if proved right to around 60 minutes - will start to tumble dramatically.

The three clashes between Brentford and Sheffield United since the start of last season, which are the only league clashes since the 1988/89 campaign, have all finished 2-0 (with two in favour of the Blades).

Unders and overs:

Brentford are usually a keen exponent of the passing game, and are very patient in their build-up play. They were slightly different tactically last weekend in beating Preston, as Rosler had them a bit more direct, playing the ball forward quicker than anticipated. Here I think they might sit deeper again, and revert to soaking up the expected home pressure.

The feature of Sheffield United's run of one win at Bramall Lane in 2013 has been their inability to break teams down. Which sets up a perfect bet at the braver under 1.5 goals @ 3.2011/5. United have also kept an astonishing six clean sheets in their last seven matches. I would normally recommend under 2.5 goals, but at 1.654/6 it's too short, and would only get involved in that bet if there was an early goal (to enable backing at a higher price in running).

Recommended Bets
Back under 1.5 goals @ 3.7011/4
Back HT draw @ 2.1011/10
Back Brentford to win @ 3.309/4
Back Brentford to win 0-1 @ 9.30n/a

There are no comments on this article.

Product reviews and advice for best reference

Grand National Meeting: Flemenstar team up for Cue Card clash

"Referring to the lung infection that ruled him out of Cheltenham, Casey said 'He’s grand now, not a bother on him, and he’s going to Liverpool for the Melling over two and a half'."

Trainer Peter Casey has indicated that the Melling Chase on April 5, and a clash with Ryanair winner Cue Card, is the next intended outing for leading Irish chaser Flemenstar.

Speaking to the Irish Times, Casey laid out the plan with Flemenstar for the remainder of the season, which also includes an even more audacious shot at Champion Chase winner Sprinter Sacre.

Referring to the lung infection that ruled him out of Cheltenham, Casey said "He's grand now, not a bother on him, and he's going to Liverpool for the Melling over two and a half. If all goes well there, he'll probably go to Punchestown for the two-mile race. The two-mile race was what we wanted to run in at Cheltenham."

The match-up between Flemenstar and Cue Card at Aintree would be a fascinating one, and not just because the pair sit on an identical Timeform steeplechase rating of 175. Flemenstar has become one of the most popular chasers in his native land, in no small part on account of his bold jumping in front. Similarly, Cue Card put up one of the performances of the Cheltenham Festival with an exemplary display of front-running in the Ryanair. Both horses best efforts have come when allowed to stride on, and it's doubtful that either will be asked to concede the lead to the other in the Melling Chase.

The race would also mark the first run in Britain for Flemenstar, who has previously been reported to be a poor traveller. The intermediate trip of two-and-a-half miles is possibly ideal for him, and certainly more suitable than three miles, over which he's been defeated on his last two starts, on the second occasion by subsequent Gold Cup runner-up Sir des Champs in the Irish Hennessy.

A potential date with Sprinter Sacre at Punchestown for Flemenstar could be even more significant from Timeform's point of view, as on ratings Flemenstar is one of the likelier candidates to push Sprinter Sacre into exercising the 'p' still attached to his already monstrous 192 rating. Despite Sprinter Sacre still having just eight chase starts to his name, only Arkle and Flyingbolt have ever been rated higher by Timeform.

Get open access to Timeform data for just £2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

There are no comments on this article.

Product reviews and advice for best reference

Against All Odds: Benfica just too short for Primeira Liga clash

"Guimaraes are running into a bit of form and will take hope from the fact that they haven’t lost to them in the league at home for two seasons."

Lay Benfica v Guimaraes @ 1.392/5

Benfica are long odds-on for their trip to Guimaraes in the Primeria Liga this evening and while they are the most likely winners, Paul Robinson thinks their price is just too short and has to be opposed.

Guimaraes are up to sixth in the league after back to back victories and after just missing out on European qualification last term, they have a great shot of making amends this time around. Pacos de Ferreira may be out of sight in fourth place, but they are level on points with Rio Ave in the last remaining qualifying spot, with only goal difference splitting them.

After a bit of a shaky start to their campaign at home, Rui Vitória's side have won three of their last five at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques, losing just one to the reigning champions Porto. All those victories came with clean sheets and when they played Benfica at home last season, they beat them 1-0.  

Benfica are flying at the moment - unbeaten in the league and through to the quarter-finals of the Europa. They've won their last four Primeira Liga matches to nil, scoring a total of 10 goals. They really are in red-hot form, with Oscar Cardozo leading the way with 25 goals in all competitions.

They aren't completely infallible though as Braga managed to knock them out of the Taca da Liga on penalties at the end of February and another concern I have is that they had a hard game in France on Thursday against Bordeaux. 

It's quite clear that Jorge Jesus' men are the worthy favourites for this clash, but they are far from nailed on. Guimaraes are running into a bit of form and will take hope from the fact that they haven't lost to them in the league at home for two seasons. Add in the fact that Benfica have had less than 72 hours since their last match and it makes me believe that their odds of 1.392/5 are just too short and have to be opposed. That's why, at the prices, I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Benfica v Guimaraes @ 1.392/5 

This match is available on Betfair Live Video at 20:30

Wagered: 75 pts
Returned: 71.30 pts
P/L – 3.70 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

There are no comments on this article.

Product reviews and advice for best reference

Against All Odds: Lay Monaco in Ligue Two clash

Against All Odds / Paul Robinson / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Laval travel to Monaco tonight in a Ligue Two clash over in France. The Home side are odds-on but they have won just one of 12 league matches in front of their own fans this season. Paul Robinson introduces his lay of the day.

Regular readers will know that I like to focus on stats when making my selections. Well how about this for a stat: So far in 2012, I have had 23 successful odds-on lays from 39 and if you had staked £10 on every selection, you'd be just over £100 in profit before commission.

Monaco are floundering in 19th place in the table with 20 points from 23 matches. Marco Simone's men are in danger of back to back relegations as they are five points adrift of safety and can't buy a win for love nor money this campaign. The Red and Whites have drawn nearly half of their games and they need to start turning some of those into victories, but their leaky defence is proving a real hindrance.

With 34 conceded Monaco have the worst defensive record in the division and they have kept just one clean sheet in five at Stade Louis II. Looking at their home record in further detail, they have won one, drawn seven and lost four. The sole victory was against Arles back in September and since then they are without a win in seven.

Laval are up in 9th place in the league after collecting 33 points from 22 fixtures. That is an improvement on last year's bottom half finish and manager Philippe Hinschberger will be hoping his side can consolidate this position in 2012. Les Tangos are a bit inconsistent though and their record form reads; DWLLWWLWLW.

This inconsistency is partly due to their contrasting home and away form as they are a much better team on home soil, however they are capable of picking up results on the road, with the most recent example being an impressive 2-3 victory over fourth placed Nantes in December

With five goals in their last five away matches, Laval certainly have it in them to trouble Moncao's porous defence and I can see them nicking one or two this evening, meaning Monaco will have to be in fine form in front of goal to grab the win.

Laval are no world beaters and are a touch shaky on their travels, but I can't be having odds-on about a side who are second from bottom with a home win percentage of 8%. Monaco are trading around [1.99] and at that price, I have to make them my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet: Lay Monaco against Laval @ [1.99]

Leicester City travel to East Midlands rivals Derby tonight for what will be a highly competitive match in the English Championship. Four of Leicester's last five games have had three goals or more yet under 2.5 is trading at [1.83]....

Following their hammering against Liverpool, Brighton travel to Hull this evening. The current odds suggest that they won't be atoning tonight but Paul Robinson has other ideas....

Barnsley host Birmingham in the English Championship tonight in what, on paper, appears to be a goalfest in the making. Under 2.5 goals is odds-on though and Paul Robinson believes that is definitely worth opposing....

Amazon Watches Center

Against All Odds: Man City European clash to produce goals

Against All Odds / Paul Robinson / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Manchester City travel to Portugal this evening for a first leg clash against FC Porto in the Europa League. It's expected to be a tight affair but Paul Robinson thinks that both goalkeepers will be kept very busy.

Porto find themselves in this competition after a disappointing Champions League campaign which saw them pick up only eight points from a group that consisted of Shakhtar Donetsk, Zenit St Petersburg and APOEL Nicosia.

The main problem was that they dropped too many points at home as their results at Estádio do Dragão were; 2-1, 1-1, 0-0.

Domestically, the Dragons lie second in the Primeira Liga with 43 points from 18 matches, which is five points less than table toppers, Benfica. While goals were hard to come by in Europe, Vítor Pereira's men have been free scoring in the league and they have notched 42 already this year, so I am willing to put their Champions League bluntness down to a blip, especially when they have the likes of James Rodriguez and the incredible Hulk in the team.

Manchester City also bowed out of the Champions League in the group phase and as it was their debut season in the competition, coupled with the fact that they had a tough draw, I can overlook their poor European displays and assume that they will improve from now on.

In terms of goals, three out of their six fixtures went Over 2.5 Goals, including two out of three away from home. The goals have dried up a touch domestically of late, but while the Carlos Tevez saga continues. Mario Balotelli is available for European competition and he has a knack for producing goals on the big stage.

Roberto Mancini will be desperate to lift the cup as the shadow of Jose Mourinho looms large in the background, so you can expect him to send his side out to grab at least one away goal this evening.

Recent results point to a low scoring affair but both of these teams have plenty of goals in them and they will both be taking it very seriously. Under 2.5 Goals is trading at around [1.89] and that seems a bit skinny to me as I really fancy this one to be a goalfest.

Recommended Bet: Lay Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.89]

Juventus travel to Parma tonight in Italy's Serie A knowing that a win will return them to the top of the table. The market has them odds-on but Paul Robinson thinks that Parma will be no pushovers....

Leyton Orient travel to Bournemouth this evening for a clash in the third tier of English football. The home side are odds-on but Orient have lost just twice in their last 11 on their travels. Paul Robinson talks us through...

Napoli host Chievo this evening in Italy's Serie A. The home side are expected to win comfortably but Paul Robinson believes that the value lies in the goal markets....

Amazon Watches Center

Against All Odds: Must win clash = goals, goals, goals!

Against All Odds / Paul Robinson / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will tonight's lay of under 2.5 win against all odds?

"Three of Liverpool's last four matches have gone over 2.5 goals, including their last two on the road, and there is no reason to suggest that the trend won’t continue tonight."

Wolves host Liverpool this evening in a Premier League clash that both sides could do with winning. Neither side can afford to sit back. and Paul Robinson thinks it may be something of a goalfest

Wolves come into this one in dire form. Without a win in eight league games, they are down in 19th position and Mick McCarthy has an almighty job on his hands to keep them in the top-flight for another year.

Wanderers' problems have largely been at the back - they've kept just two clean sheets all season and both of those were back in August. At Molineux, Wolves have lost three of their last four and conceded nine goals in the process. Amazingly, Wolves' last nine games at home have all had three goals or more, so tonight's under 2.5 quote of [1.94] looks a little short.

Liverpool are seventh in the league, without a win in three. But the Reds have been buoyed by two cup successes over the Manchester clubs since then though and I have a feeling that will provide the catalyst for a challenge to Chelsea in the fourth Champions League spot.

Andy Carroll looked less isolated against United on Saturday and if the likes of Stewart Downing, Steven Gerrard and Maxi Rodriguez can put some good balls into the box to him, then it's only a matter of time before he starts scoring. Craig Bellamy sat out the last match which suggests that he will be in the first XI this evening and that would be a major plus as the Welshman has been Liverpool's most dangerous player in recent weeks. Three of their last four matches have gone over 2.5 goals, including their last two on the road, and there is no reason to suggest that the trend won't continue tonight.

Kenny Dalglish and Mick McCarthy both know that nothing other than three points is good enough and that usually points to goals. Carroll will have a point to prove to his manager after recent reports suggest that he was being offered in a swap deal for Carlos Tevez and I have a feeling that he will do that this evening as he has shown improved form in recent weeks. This has all the makings of an open match, so with under 2.5 goals odds-on, I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals @ [1.94]

Osasuna host Atletico Madrid in Spain's La Liga this evening. Six out of the last eight away trips for Atletico have featured three goals or more, yet under 2.5 goals is available to lay at [1.86]. Paul Robinson talks us...

Fulham travel to Everton this evening for an FA Cup fourth round tie in what many are predicting to be a low scoring, drab affair. Four out of the last five meetings between the pair have gone over 2.5 goals...

AC Milan and Lazio meet this evening in a Coppa Italia quarter final with the winner going on to face Juventus in the semis. Under 2.5 goals is odds-on but Lazio's last three away trips have all gone over. Paul...

Amazon Watches Center

Lee Dixon: Goals on the menu as have-a-go heroes clash

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Steven Gerrard is back and can score for the second game in a row

"Expect Norwich to contribute their share of goals - a point underlined by Opta who tell us the following: 'Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 Premier League games and in both matches the opposition was reduced to 10 men.'"

Liverpool and Norwich are no shrinking violets, says Lee Dixon who thinks Saturday evening could bring goals at both ends of the Anfield pitch

Liverpool v Norwich, Saturday 17:30, live on ESPN
I have been quietly impressed with Norwich in their first season back in the top flight. They are always up for a go at the opposition and have scored in all but two Premier League games, and one of those was against Manchester United.

That suggests they might well score at Anfield and I think we could be in for an entertaining game. But while I don't expect this to be a cakewalk for Liverpool, they should have enough to pick up another three points in what is turning into a promising season for them.

Match Odds - Liverpool [1.32], Norwich [13.0], Draw [5.7]
At [1.32] I'm not going to put Liverpool up as a recommended bet, regardless of whether I think they'll win or not. As it stands I do believe victory will be theirs, but with Norwich capable of scoring I don't think this will be straightforward enough to invest your money at such a short price.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Having established that I'm expecting action I'm going to push the boat out here and will go over 3.5 at [2.76], rather than the more conservative 2.5 option. As I state above, expect Norwich to contribute their share - a point underlined by Opta who tell us the following: 'Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 Premier League games and in both matches the opposition was reduced to 10 men.'

Penalty Taken?
The Canaries may be goalscorers but they give plenty of chances to the opposition too, with seven goals conceded on the road, and a league-high five penalties awarded against them. There'll be lots of home possession for them to contend against on Saturday evening and we could well see keeper John Ruddy face another spot kick...

To Score
...and the man despatching that penalty will likely be Steven Gerrard. The Anfield legend was a winning bet for us in this market last week and we're going in again! In a game that should feature goals the Liverpool captain has got to be fancied to get amongst it.

Gerrard has been nurtured back to fitness by Kenny Dalglish and his team, and Liverpool have been doing reasonably well without him. The new signings have helped in that respect and, for once, Gerrard is not expected to carry his team-mates. Nevertheless, he is still hugely influential and will benefit from the good new players around him. Unlike some others, I'm not going to write Gerrard off at just 31 years of age, and fancy him to play a big role for both Liverpool and England in the next few years.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Over 3.5 goals @ [2.76]
1pt Back Yes in Penalty Taken market @ [4.0]
Back 1pt Steven Gerrard To Score @ around [2.8]

Wolves are mired in a five-game losing streak but Saturday's early Premier League kick-off gives them the best opportunity yet to break that horrible run, says Lee Dixon...

There's one outstanding bet this weekend as far as Mike Norman is concerned, and it comes in the Bolton v Sunderland game where goals should be the order of the day....

There's no Champions League football at White Hart Lane this year and as a result slightly less media attention. Away from the spotlight, Harry Redknapp's Spurs keep on improving in the league....

Play Casino & Poker here

Aviva Premiership Betting: Bath can edge Twickenham clash

Rugby Union / Geoffrey Riddle / 22 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Guy Mercer and Bath should run out as the winners of Saturday's clash with Wasps

"Half of Bath’s ten league wins have been by seven points or fewer, which is a correlation of how frugally they score and., considering I make them favourites, Bath to defeat Wasps by 1-12 points looks the angle for me."

Geoffrey Riddle selects the best bets from this week's Aviva Premiership fixtures with his main focus Bath's meeting with Wasps at Twickenham on Saturday

The incident between Andy Powell and a few football fans in a West London bar earlier this week has completely overshadowed the St George's Day fixture between Wasps and Bath at Twickenham on Saturday.

Wasps are furious at their Wales international hogging the headlines when the focus really should be on the fine charity work both teams are doing for the Armed Forces. It may not sound important from a betting perspective, but taking your eye off the ball ahead of such an important clash often has serious ramifications.

Wasps have named what looks a patched up side anyway. Tom Varndell returns from an ankle ligament injury that was meant to rule him out for the season. Before suffering his injury in February, Varndell had scored six tries in the league and curiously five of those were in the first 40 minutes but he surely cannot be so sharp after such a layoff.

At full-back the High Wycombe club rely on the teenager Elliot Daly. Daly's performances at England Under-20 level have been sublime - he scored four tries against Italy a few months back - but playing at Twickenham in the Daily Mail Cup is a whole different ball game to lining up opposite Bath.

With Ben Jacobs slotting in at centre after recovering from injury alongside Riki Flutey, Bath will fancy their chances of putting pressure on the Wasps back-three and running their rivals ragged when in possession.

The sun is set to shine in Middlesex and with the expected carnival atmosphere the temptation would be to envisage a repeat of the high-scoring 35-19 scoreline that Bath beat Wasps by in the same fixture last season.

Bath played with a different expectation last season, however, and the decay in the Wasps ranks along with their extensive injury list this season means we could be in for a very different spectacle 12 months later.

Wasps ended a three game losing run with their 51-18 victory over Leeds on Sunday - the first time they have broken the half century mark in the Premiership since 2004. It was a strange result because they have scored the fewest points out of any team above them in the league table other than Bath.

Only Newcastle have scored fewer tries than the West Country club in the league and for a team who have been the very epitome of free-running, off-loading rugby for the past few seasons it is a very sad situation. Perhaps once the delicate matter between Steve Meehan and Sir Ian McGeechan is resolved at the end of the season things will improve at the Rec.

Half of Bath's ten league wins have been by seven points or fewer, which is a correlation of how frugally they score and., considering I make them favourites, Bath by 1-12 points looks the angle for me.

The other two live games between London Irish and Northampton and Gloucester's clash with Saracens at Vicarage Road are heavily dependent on team news.

Gloucester's victory over Northampton on Tuesday was just another illustration of the fine job Bryan Redpath has done orchestrating a West Country revival. Gloucester could be leading the Premiership, too, if the Cherry and Whites had not lost to the bottom four teams, a glaring and disgraceful statistic.

Still, at the business end, Gloucester have won four and drawn one of their meetings against their rivals in the top four which bodes well for their visit to Watford, where they have won on five of their last eight visits. With eight successive victories in the ledger though, Sarries are on their best run in Premiership history and although we were unlucky last week backing against Gloucester, I think the home side will just edge the contest and should be backed to win by 1-12 points.

World Cup winning columnist picks two out of three and comes close to pulling off week one Grand Slam......

For once the Contrarian is supporting a favourite, albeit with a twist. Here's why he thinks England will win the Grand Slam this year in the Six Nations at [6.4]......

Warren Gatland has been criticised by calling Gaving Henson up to the Wales squad but Ralph Ellis believes the mercurial star could give his side a boost in the Six Nations and the World Cup....

Play Casino & Poker here