MLB Tipping Sheet: Home run heroes can fire Yankees to victory

"Eleven of the 17 home runs given up by Alvarez this season have been off the fastball. MLB's top 50 in home runs off fastballs contains five Yankee's regulars."

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Phil Dolan takes over from Richard Fletcher with today's baseball tips and he fancies New York to stretch their lead at the top of the AL East

Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
This is the final fixture in a four-game NL East series. Washington have a 2-1 lead in the series after their 4-0 victory on Sunday. Carlos Zambrano (4-7, 4.20 ERA), who has not won since June 3, starts for the Marlins this evening. Edwin Jackson has pitched well in his first season with the Nationals (5-4, 3.73 ERA) and with a little support I expect Washington to extend their lead over the Braves at the top of the NL East.

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
The Bronx Bombers host the Blue Jays in the opening game of this AL East series. This is a tough matchup for Toronto's starting pitcher Henderson Alvarez (5-7, 4.36 ERA) against #2 in the Yankees rotation Phil Hughes (9-7, 4.33 ERA). According to ESPN Stats and Information, 11 of the 17 homeruns given up by Alvarez this season have been off the fastball. MLB's top 50 in homeruns off fastballs contains five Yankee's regulars. Even at 1.58n/a I'm backing the Yankees!

Philadelphia Phillies @ LA Dodgers
Live on ESPN America
The Dodgers open this three game series against the Phillies with Chris Capuano (9-4, 2.41 ERA) on the mound. Capuano lost his last start, however he has been one of the biggest surprises of the Dodgers season, solidifying their rotation. Joe Blanton (7-8, 4.98 ERA) starts for the Phillies. Blanton has lost his last two starts and the Phillies lost 10 of their last 11 before the All-Star Break. I expect a Dodgers victory.

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Lee Dixon: Goals on the menu as have-a-go heroes clash

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Steven Gerrard is back and can score for the second game in a row

"Expect Norwich to contribute their share of goals - a point underlined by Opta who tell us the following: 'Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 Premier League games and in both matches the opposition was reduced to 10 men.'"

Liverpool and Norwich are no shrinking violets, says Lee Dixon who thinks Saturday evening could bring goals at both ends of the Anfield pitch

Liverpool v Norwich, Saturday 17:30, live on ESPN
I have been quietly impressed with Norwich in their first season back in the top flight. They are always up for a go at the opposition and have scored in all but two Premier League games, and one of those was against Manchester United.

That suggests they might well score at Anfield and I think we could be in for an entertaining game. But while I don't expect this to be a cakewalk for Liverpool, they should have enough to pick up another three points in what is turning into a promising season for them.

Match Odds - Liverpool [1.32], Norwich [13.0], Draw [5.7]
At [1.32] I'm not going to put Liverpool up as a recommended bet, regardless of whether I think they'll win or not. As it stands I do believe victory will be theirs, but with Norwich capable of scoring I don't think this will be straightforward enough to invest your money at such a short price.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Having established that I'm expecting action I'm going to push the boat out here and will go over 3.5 at [2.76], rather than the more conservative 2.5 option. As I state above, expect Norwich to contribute their share - a point underlined by Opta who tell us the following: 'Liverpool have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 Premier League games and in both matches the opposition was reduced to 10 men.'

Penalty Taken?
The Canaries may be goalscorers but they give plenty of chances to the opposition too, with seven goals conceded on the road, and a league-high five penalties awarded against them. There'll be lots of home possession for them to contend against on Saturday evening and we could well see keeper John Ruddy face another spot kick...

To Score
...and the man despatching that penalty will likely be Steven Gerrard. The Anfield legend was a winning bet for us in this market last week and we're going in again! In a game that should feature goals the Liverpool captain has got to be fancied to get amongst it.

Gerrard has been nurtured back to fitness by Kenny Dalglish and his team, and Liverpool have been doing reasonably well without him. The new signings have helped in that respect and, for once, Gerrard is not expected to carry his team-mates. Nevertheless, he is still hugely influential and will benefit from the good new players around him. Unlike some others, I'm not going to write Gerrard off at just 31 years of age, and fancy him to play a big role for both Liverpool and England in the next few years.

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2pts Back Over 3.5 goals @ [2.76]
1pt Back Yes in Penalty Taken market @ [4.0]
Back 1pt Steven Gerrard To Score @ around [2.8]

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