Aviva Premiership 
/ Geoffrey Riddle / 23 March 2012 / Leave a Comment Ben Youngs returns from international duty to Leicester's ranks
"Irish have lost in front of a huge crowd before mind you, but the last three St Patrick’s Day matches have resulted in high-scoring events."
There are some decent matches going on this weekend but the better bets lie in the total points and win margin markets rather than the match odds, says Geoffrey Riddle.
Leicester look a fair bet to crash London Irish's tardy St Patrick's day party at the Madejski Stadium but it may be better to take a different approach in order to eke out a decent profit from Sunday's live Premiership match.
The pair clashed in the Premiership Grand Final three seasons ago but since that time the fortunes of the two teams could barely be more contrasting.
Irish lie in ninth place, having lost seven of their last eight fixtures in all competitions. The last time they recorded a victory was against Gloucester in the Anglo Welsh Cup on the first weekend of February.
Leicester on the other hand remain in the hunt for a play-off place and picked up their first silverware of the season when beating Nothampton at Worcester last Sunday to carry off the Anglo-Welsh Cup.
As far as the match betting and handicap betting is concerned, the Tigers look decent value at anything bigger than [1.5] or under a six-point deficit. They welcome back six of their senior internationals. Dan Cole, Geoff Parling, Manu Tuilagi and Ben Youngs are named in the starting line-up after starring in England's surprisingly effective Six Nations campaign, with Tom Croft and Martin Castrogiovanni among the replacements.
Toby Flood, used as a substitute in the LV= Cup Final victory, takes over at fly-half, and there is a return to the squad for centre Anthony Allen, who has recovered from a knee injury.
Irish's record at home is poor, having lost to Bath, Edinburgh, Racing Metro, Cardiff and most recently Northampton. This fixture is slightly different, however, as all the St Patrick's Day celebrations usually bumps up the crowd to in excess of 20,000.
Irish have lost in front of a huge crowd before mind you, but the last three St Patrick's Day matches have resulted in high-scoring events.
Last year Irish beat Exeter 39-17, and the year before that Sale spoiled the fun for total points backers by losing 38-0. With Northampton getting beaten 32-27 three seasons ago it is clear points could be on the menu once again.
Three of the last four matches between Leicester and Irish have produced more than 45 points, so anything less than around 40 should be seized upon.
As was well publicised just before the Six Nations, Leicester have scored the most tries in the league this season. They have amassed 48 tries and have registered five try-bonus points from their 17 matches. Despite languishing in 9th place, Irish have an excellent array of attacking players capable of striking from most parts of the field. They have scored 32 tries this season and with the weather set fair, the total points looks a better market to invest in than the 80 minutes or handicap betting.
Harlequins are the second-highest tryscorers in the league with 40 this season and they will fancy their chances of accounting for Bath at The Stoop on Saturday.
Bath, however, are a far better defensive unit than they are given credit for. The West Country side have conceded the same amount of tries as the much-vaunted defence of Saracens, and the visitors will be hoping to take advantage of their hosts' current malaise.
Quins have dominated the league this season, and have topped the Premiership since round three. They have won just three of their last seven matches and this could be closer than many anticipate. With Bath likely to be given at least a converted try start, it may be worth backing Harlequins to win by 1-12 points in the winning margin market.
The other live fixture this weekend is the mismatch between Northampton and Wasps at Franklin's Gardens. Wasps may have finally snapped their losing streak, which totalled nine consecutive matches after beating London Irish last week.
Northampton have lost just one Premiership encounter at home since February last year and certainly merit quotes of around [1.08] in the match betting.
Recommended investments (1-5pt staking plan)
3pt overs 42.5 pts in the total points market London Irish v Leicester
1pt Harlequins to beat Bath by 1-12 points
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