ATP Indian Wells Betting: Matosevic value against Querrey and Murray may have to work again

"Matosevic is striking the ball well and Querrey doesn’t have a good record at Indian Wells, with just one fourth round appearance lifetime at this venue.."

Back Matosevic +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.834/5

Sean Calvert was back to winning ways at Indian Wells yesterday and he's identified another tempting wager at the BNP Paribas Open this evening...

Kevin Anderson more than justified my faith in him yesterday with a thoroughly convincing straight sets win over Jarkko Nieminen to make my straight sets wager a winner at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden.

The big South African was in rare form again and after his win over David Ferrer the previous round and the Finn had no answers in a 6-3, 6-1 stroll in which Anderson lost just one point on his first serve.

Elsewhere, Jerzy Janowicz produced the kind of performance against Richard Gasquet that I was expecting when he faced David Nalbandian in the previous round. The Pole managed just 41% of first serves in play, which was never likely to get the job done against the Gasman.

It was easy for Roger Federer and even easier for Rafa Nadal, whose opponent withdrew and probably the highlight of the day was a typically barmy performance from Ernests Gulbis, who showed his full repertoire in a tight three set win over Andreas Seppi. 

Andy Murray is in action tonight against the man who memorably stunned him at the 2008 Olympics Yen Hsun Lu, but that match won't be on until 2am. For those staying up late marking their cards for Cheltenham I would be inclined to side with Lu with a 5.5 game start at around 1.9520/21. 

Murray recovered from a slow start against Evgeny Donskoy, but he's not the same player in Masters compared to Slams and I doubt that he'll take Lu apart tonight. 

Also in action today are Novak Djokovic who should have few problems getting past Grigor Dimitrov and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who should take care of a very rusty Mardy Fish. Juan Martin Del Potro also looks to have a pretty routine task against diminutive German Bjorn Phau.

But Marin Cilic versus Milos Raonic should be competitive and probably quite long, with the overs looking good there and I like Nico Almagro to edge it against Tommy Haas, but perhaps better value comes in the match between Marinko Matosevic and Sam Querrey.

Big Sam has had a pretty average year so far and is perhaps best known for a shocking choke against Gulbis in Delray Beach so far in 2013 and he has been beaten by Matosevic already this season. 

The Aussie has eased into the third round stage by beating Tommy Robredo and Juan Monaco in straight sets, which shows that he's striking the ball well and Querrey doesn't have a good record at Indian Wells, with just one fourth round appearance lifetime at this venue. 

The 3.259/4 about a Matosevic win is worthy of consideration, but the 3.5 game handicap start at 1.834/5 looks a good bet in this one, as surely at least one and probably all sets of this one will be close. 

Recommended Bet
Back Matosevic +3.5 games to beat Querrey at 1.834/5

There are no comments on this article.

Product Review Center

ATP Indian Wells Betting: Ramos to make things tricky for Cilic while Murray may struggle against Donskoy

"The highest ranked player that Cilic has ever beaten at Indian Wells is Florent Serra, who was ranked number 73 when Cilic beat him here in 2011 and Ramos should have enough about his game to give the Croat a hard time again tonight.."

Back Ramos +3.5 games to beat Cilic at 2.01/1

Any Murray supporters beware! It's been an unpredictable start to proceedings at Indian Wells, so can Sean Calvert find some winners in today's second round matches?

The 2013 BNP Paribas Open continued to confound on Saturday, with no less than seven seeded casualties in the men's draw and another tough loss for my recommended bet.

David Nalbandian lost a tight one to Jerzy Janowicz and resorted to his time-honoured tradition of booting the advertising hoardings. Thankfully there wasn't a line judge sitting behind them this time, but the well-backed Nalbandian's supporters could empathise with the Argentine.

But there was a bright spot amongst the carnage, as David Ferrer's defeat to Kevin Anderson has opened the draw up nicely for my two outright recommended bets Tomas Berdych and Gilles Simon.

The latter came back from 5-1 and match points down to defeat Paulo Lorenzi yesterday, while Berdych's chances of making at least the semi-finals look good with Ferrer's loss.

So, there's plenty to play for and Andy Murray begins his Indian Wells campaign tonight against improving Russian Evgeny Donskoy, but it would be a huge surprise if he were able to push the Scot close.

That said, Murray has lost in the first round here for the last two years in a row and it's certainly not his favourite venue. His Masters 1000 form hasn't been great lately and you have to go back to Shanghai 2011 for his last Masters title.

It could be worth an interest to side with Donskoy +6.5 games on the handicap in this one, as Murray hasn't played since the Australian Open and might be rusty enough to allow the Russian enough games to cover that quite generous allowance.

But one I prefer on the handicap is for Albert Ramos to cause Marin Cilic enough problems to beat the Croatian with a 3.5 game start at around 2.01/1.

The left-handed Spaniard defeated Cilic in their only hard court meeting in Shanghai at the end of 2011 and last year he took down Richard Gasquet in this tournament, so the conditions here suit Ramos.

They don't really suit Cilic though, as his record here is poor, with just three wins at this venue in total in his career. The highest ranked player that Cilic has ever beaten at Indian Wells is Florent Serra, who was ranked number 73 when Cilic beat him here in 2011 and Ramos should have enough about his game to give the Croat a hard time again tonight.

Recommended Bet
Back Ramos +3.5 games to beat Cilic at 2.01/1

There are no comments on this article.

Product Review Center

US Open Tips: Murray may have to go the extra mile to beat Raonic

"Milos Raonic was in superb form against James Blake after a slow start to the tournament that almost saw him dumped out by Santiago Giraldo and Murray can’t afford to play as he did for two sets against Lopez in this match."

Back over 38.5 games in Murray v Raonic @ 1.68/13

Sean Calvert looks at Andy Murray's fourth round showdown with Canadian Milos Raonic - a man in form who could trouble the Brit

Sunday's play at the US Open saw Laura Robson's excellent breakthrough tournament come to an end, but not before she'd won us another bet.

The British teenager bowed out in straight sets to Sam Stosur after struggling to find the kind of level she'd previously displayed, but she did enough to win our handicap wager and she's certainly been good to us this tournament.

Unfortunately Juan Martin Del Potro failed to win by the required amount of games to land my other wager as we head into week two in New York.

After a faltering performance against Feliciano Lopez, which he blamed on a lack of hot weather conditioning caused by going to the Olympics rather than training in Miami, Andy Murray faces a tougher assignment tonight.

Milos Raonic was in superb form against James Blake after a slow start to the tournament that almost saw him dumped out by Santiago Giraldo and Murray can't afford to play as he did for two sets against Lopez in this match.

Two of the three scheduled meetings between these players have been walkovers, so they've only actually faced each other once, which was at the tournament I was at in Barcelona this spring. Raonic won that day on the clay and on the form of their previous matches against Blake and Lopez respectively you would have to give the Canadian a strong chance of another upset.

It appears that the Olympics has done for a few players this summer and I wouldn't put a brass farthing on Murray at 1.331/3 in a dangerous match like this one, but he has been handed the substantial advantage of playing last under the lights in cooler conditions.

That is a huge boost to his chances, as playing conditions will be slower and Milos will have to serve to his absolute best level to win the match in these circumstances.

I don't trust Murray enough to back him at a short price, so I'm happy to take the overs in this one, as it looks sure to go to four sets at least. The total games mark is set at 38.5 and I'm going over that at a price of around 1.68/13.

In the women's draw today the clash between Angelique Kerber and Sara Errani looks to offer some value in backing the Italian with a 5.5 game start on the handicap.

While I expect the German to come through this one she's a little short at 1.251/4 and the diminutive Italian won't be brushed aside as comfortably as the odds are suggesting.

A much-improved player on all surfaces Errani's new found confidence has seen her dish out some convincing wins this tournament and she can stick this one out long enough to cover what looks a generous 5.5 game start.

This will be their third career meeting, with the score standing at 1-1 and although Kerber thrashed the world number 10 on a hard court last time out Errani won in straight sets on clay at Roland Garros and she's a different player to the one Kerber saw in Hobart.

These conditions will obviously favour Kerber and she should win, but probably not by as many as six games.

Recommended Bets
Back over 38.5 games in Murray v Raonic @ 1.68/13
Back Errani +5.5 games to beat Kerber at 1.845/6

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

There are no comments on this article.

Amazon Watches Center

Men's US Open: Murray can play smiles better when he is happy

"Ivan Lendl wasn’t at Wimbledon and it makes you wonder if that was why Britain’s big hope was more relaxed and enjoyed the support of the home crowd, embracing the expectation and pressure rather than finding it a burden."

Ralph Ellis tells us what's different about the Andy Murray we saw at Wimbledon a few weeks ago and the one we saw at Flushing Meadows yesterday, and why the former must return...

It has taken little more than three weeks but something very important has already gone missing from Andy Murray's gold medal game - his smile.

Now I know smiling and Britain's number one tennis player have never been two phrases that have gone together - but for a week at Wimbledon during the Olympics we saw a different side of the Scot. Yes, he played with intensity and a determination on Centre Court, and with the attitude of a winner. But he looked like he was enjoying what he was doing at the same time.

He was a man who was relaxed in the atmosphere of a big tournament, a man who had found that playing at the top of your game could actually be quite good fun. And it was hard not to believe that change of attitude was what finally made the difference between him coming close to winning a major tournament, and finally getting across the line.

Fast forward to the opening round of the US Open and all that seems to have gone. Watching Murray on court last night was like watching a child who'd been kept back for extra work as a punishment. Even when he'd struck the winning point the expression never changed. He trudged to the net to shake hands with Alex Bogomolov, and allowed himself just the briefest look into the skies.

"I only dropped seven games in three sets so I must have done something right," he reasoned afterwards. And that's a fair point. But there are sterner tests to come, and it's hard not to think that if he goes on finding Flushing Meadows such hard work then he cannot last the pace.

Murray is number three seed and 5.49/2 to follow up his Olympic success by ending his wait for a first Grand Slam success and becoming the US Open winner. It would be good to say that the Gold Medal could be the catalyst for more glory but on the evidence of his first round match there's no value at all in backing him - especially with Roger Federer in his half of the draw.

Next up is Croatian journeyman Ivan Dodig, a 27-year-old who is 118 in the current world rankings and ought to be a formality. But even that won't be simple if the old misery guts Murray is on court again.

Dodig has been as high as 32 in his time, and has a win over Rafael Nadal in his past form line, but suffered from injuries earlier this year and is just returning to form. The Scot is 1.031/33 to win in a market that is only just forming - but there may well be value in laying a straight sets victory in the sets betting by the time the match is ready to start tomorrow.

Ivan Lendl is back on coaching duties in Murray's box and it was noticeable that he frequently looked up and muttered to the man who is supposed to be his mentor. The former world number one wasn't at Wimbledon and it makes you wonder if that was why Britain's big hope was more relaxed and enjoyed the support of the home crowd, embracing the expectation and pressure rather than finding it a burden.

For a week we all found it easier to like Murray the man, and it was no coincidence that he then found it easier to win. Wouldn't it be good - for him and everybody else - if he could recapture that attitude before yet another Grand Slam tournament comes and goes?

There are no comments on this article.

Amazon Watches Center

Sony Ericsson Betting: My money's on Murray

Events / Ben Caudell / 01 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

The only way is up. Andy Murray can get the better of Novak Djokovic today.

"Moreover, Murray has won their last five best-of-three set matches played on hard-courts (Dubai 2012, Cincinnati 2011, Miami 2009, Cincinnati 2008, and Toronto 2008)."

Andy Murray plays Novak Djokovic in today's final and though the Serbian goes into the game as the strong favourite, there are good arguments to make in favour of Murray being the value bet. Ben Caudell makes them here...

Former junior foes Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic face off at 18:00 (UK time) this evening in a repeat of the 2009 Miami Masters Final in which the Brit took home the honours with a straight sets victory 6-2 7-5.

With twelve matches played between the pair including a momentous five set thriller at this year's Australian Open, we can foresee another absorbing clash between two heavy weights of the men's game and a match that offers plenty of trading opportunities to get involved in.

World number one Novak Djokovic is priced at [1.45] in the match odds and is the deserved favourite. But Murray, who can be backed at a tasty [3.20] is the player I will be putting my money on to repeat his 2009 heroics.

First of all, Murray will be as fit as a fiddle and no doubt less fatigued than his opponent coming into tonight's final. The Brit required the services of lady luck on his side of the draw, which has seen the world number four reach the final having played only three matches. Thanks to his walkovers against Milos Raonic in the third round and against second favourite Rafael Nadal in the semi-finals, Murray will also be confident, having defeated Djokovic in their most recent match-up (6-2 7-5) in the semi-finals of Dubai.

In fact, although Murray has a losing head-to-head series record against the Serbian (5-7), if we discount the two Grand Slam meetings, the series would be tied at (5-5), Moreover, Murray has won their last five best-of-three set matches played on hard-courts (Dubai 2012, Cincinnati 2011, Miami 2009, Cincinnati 2008, and Toronto 2008).

Another standout stat that has influenced my decision to back Murra,y who spends a lot of his time training in Miami, is the fact that he has a career record of (8-1) in Master Series Finals. Aall of which took place on either indoor or out-door hard-courts.

Andy has won six of his last seven finals (at all levels) and four of his last five against top tenners. Tonight's match will be close affair and will probably be won in three sets. But the value resides with Murray to win his second Miami Master Series title and record a seventh Master Series final match win in a row.

Recommended Bets:

Back Andy Murray @ [3.20] to defeat Novak Djokovic

Back Over 22.5 Games @ [1.93]

Two of the most in-form players of 2012 go head-to-head this afternoon and the preference is for the outsider of the two. Agniseka Radwanska will find the slow courts more to her liking than the big-hitting Maria Sharapova, says Ben...

It's Nadal v Murray for the 19th time and the Spaniard looks set to extend his good record against the Scot, says Ben Caudell...

The consistent Caroline Wozniacki can put a stop to her fall in the rankings with victory over Maria Sharapova tonight whilst in the men's draw Mr Tenacity himself - David Ferrer - will push Novak Djokovic all the way, says...

Amazon Watches Center

Dubai Tennis Championships: Can Murray upset Djokovic bros?

Events / Sean Calvert / 27 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Can Andy prevail in Dubai?

"Djokovic is the favourite to take a fourth straight Dubai title and he’s not an awful price at around [2.38], but it’s worth taking a chance with Murray this week at palatable [8.0]."

It's a family affair in Dubai this week for the world number one, but Sean Calvert fancies a wager on Andy Murray at more attractive odds...

We were unlucky with our bet on Milos Raonic in Memphis last week, but as the Canadian reached the final, he was available to lay at [1.33] from the initial [3.5].

The ATP Tour moves on to Dubai, Acapulco and Delray Beach this week, with the world's top stars drawn to the $1.7 million prize pot on offer at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships.

Shamelessly, the tournament has given wildcards to three-time defending champion, Novak Djokovic's brother Marco and Victoria Azarenka's boyfriend Sergei Bubka.

For the record, Marco Djokovic is ranked 867 in the world and has been playing with little success in Futures events in Turkey lately, while Bubka is the world number 158 and has one Challenger title to his name from back in 2009.

So, instead of handing the valuable wild cards to deserving causes, the tournament has gone for the 'it's not what you know but who you know' option and given them to friends and family of the male and female world number ones.

The draw has paired Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Janko Tipsarevic and Tomas Berdych together in the top half, along with Nikolay Davydenko and Ivan Ljubicic.

The bottom half sees Federer, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Mardy Fish, Juan Martin Del Potro, Richard Gasquet, and Alexandr Dolgopolov as the main contenders.

Unsurprisingly, Novak Djokovic is the favourite to take a fourth straight Dubai title and he's not an awful price at around [2.38], but it's worth taking a chance with Murray this week at more palatable [8.0].

The Scot normally indulges in his traditional post-Melbourne malaise at this time of the year, but with Ivan Lendl looking on, Murray is more likely to make a fist of this event than he has done in the last few years.

Two quarter-final exits have been Murray's best showings here, but he'll surely put in a better effort this time to show not just Lendl, but everyone else as well, that he's edging closer to the top three after his Melbourne performances.

He pushed Nole very close in their Australian Open semi and he leads the world number one 4-2 in matches on outdoor hard-courts over the best of three sets.

A concern for the Scot would be the likely match he faces against Tomas Berdych in the last eight here this week.

Murray hasn't beaten the Czech since 2005 and for my money, Berdych is a decent long shot this week at around the [29] mark.

The Berdman has been playing well so far in 2012 with a win in Montpelier and a semi-final in Rotterdam to add to his Australian Open effort. He reached the semi-finals here last year before retiring against Djokovic in what was a tight match and he could go close again this time.

The only other player with chances in the top half of the draw is Tipsarevic, who is priced up this week at around the [50.0] mark, but it's hard to see him beating Djokovic, Murray/Berdych and then probably Federer in consecutive matches.

Tipsy hasn't been in the best touch this year either and was thrashed by Gasquet in Melbourne and beaten in Marseille by Michael Llodra last week. In the bottom half, I expect Federer to be the man to reach the final, as he has a fairly straightforward looking quarter, with the inconsistent Fish perhaps an obstacle before a likely semi-final against either Del Potro or Tsonga.

Delpo will surely be a touch jaded after two finals in two weeks and I can't see him busting a gut here with Indian Wells just around the corner. In any case, Federer has his number at the moment.

Tsonga looks a better prospect for semi final material, but the big Frenchman hasn't kicked on from his fine end to 2011 and he has something to prove this week. To sum up then, Djokovic is the obvious choice, but at a bigger price I'll take a chance on Murray with a small saver on Berdych.

If you fancy a real outsiders shot this week, consider Ernests Gulbis, who is around [22.0] to win at Delray Beach. Ernie has no form whatsoever with a stack of first round losses to his name, but he came here in 2010 with similar form and won it.

On the basis that he might well enjoy this event more than most, and the fact that he has a very handy draw in the bottom half, he's worth thinking about this week.

Recommended Bet
Back Murray at around [8.0]

Long shot
Berdych at around [29.0]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

Roger Federer did the business for Sean last week as Milos Raonic was winning a tournament of his own over in San Jose. And it is Raonic who is worth backing again this week, as the ATP tour moves to...

Sean Calvert isn't often in the business of tipping the tournament favourite but these days Roger Federer can be backed at odds-against. This is a tournament where he has a good record and is on a fast surface he'll like,...

Working out who is going to win each quarter is half of the way to working out how to make a profit on the winner market of this event. Gary Boswell separates the value back-to-lays from the poor value bets....

Amazon Watches Center

Australian Open Results: Djokovic edges out Murray in a thriller

Australian Open Betting / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 27 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Brothers in arms. Novak Djokovic embraces Andy Murray after a monumental effort by both players.

In what was surely the match of the tournament, Novak Djokovic came out on top against Andy Murray over five sets. Rafael Nadal awaits him in the final.

The wait continues for a British Grand Slam winner after Andy Murray was knocked out at the semi-final stage of the Australian Open earlier today by Novak Djokovic.

In what was arguably the match of the tournament, Murray and the world number one toiled for just short of five hours in a see-saw match that saw Djokovic go one set up, Murray winning the next two, the Serbian winning the fourth with ease and breaking the Scot at 6-5 to complete a memorable 6-3 3-6 6-7 (4-7) 6-1 7-5 win.

Murray will feel he wasted opportunities to knock out the pre-tournament favourite, who actually appeared the more tired of the two as the game wore on. But the man they call the 'Serbinator' didn't win three Slams last year by giving up when he was behind or not coming out on top on the big-pressure points. He traded at a high of [2.88] to win the match when 2-1 down in sets. A 3-2 win for the number one seed traded at [19.0] on Betfair.

For Murray, this match, albeit one that ended in defeat, will give him belief that he can beat the likes of Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer in the remaining Slams of the year. He played a more aggressive brand of tennis that pushed his opponent all the way, a far cry from the ultra-defensive game where he's waited for the man on the other side of the net to make mistakes, tactics that he's been guilty of in the past.

For just short of five hours the Melbourne crowd enjoyed one of the great matches of recent years but they won't have enjoyed it as much as Rafael Nadal. The French Open champion qualified for the final yesterday after a four sets win over Roger Federer and in addition to having the extra day's rest anyway, will have watched with glee as Djokovic pushed his body to the limit and will surely go into Sunday's final as the more fatigued of the two.

Yet despite that, it is the Serb who will start as the [1.72] favourite with Nadal [2.34], almost exactly the same price he was pre-match to beat Federer.

The money is coming in for Novak Djokovic but Ben Caudell's stats suggest Andy Murray has a real chance at a really big price. A show-down with Rafael Nadal may be on the cards....

There's no patriotic sentimentality when Sean Calvert is predicting the outcome of a tennis match. Andy Murray should get a set against Novak Djokovic but he might as well start packing his bags home now......

We have to show faith in the player who has been there and done it at Grand Slam level before and that means siding with Kim Clijsters over Victoria Azarenka. In the men's draw, expect first blood Federer, says Sean...

Amazon Watches Center

Australian Open Tips: Ferrer the tireless and Murray to progress

Australian Open Betting / Sean Calvert / 22 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

One of the toughest guys on the Tour to beat - David Ferrer

"Rarely can there have been a wider gap between the attitude, determination and strength of character of two opposing players and I’d back Ferrer all day long against the mercurial underachiever Gasquet."

One of the most consistent players on the ATP Tour, David Ferrer, is up against one of the most enigmatic in Richard Gasquet and a strong preference goes for the Spaniard. Sean Calvert talks us through this and the other best bets of the day.

Day seven at the Australian Open proved to be the first disappointing one of the tournament for this column as both of my bets were beaten.

The first was very unfortunate, as Li Na wasted four match points against a hobbled Kim Clijsters before Bernard Tomic blinked against Roger Federer, who was in no mood to concede a set to the young upstart.

On to the business end of the tournament then and this is where it should prove profitable to back against those for whom reaching the second week is the limit of their expectations.

The first of these is Lleyton Hewitt, who has ridden his luck as far as it is likely to go and who will be taken care of with ease by defending champion, Novak Djokovic.

Hewitt should have been beaten by Cedrik Marcel Stebe (who choked), Andy Roddick (injured) and Milos Raonic (bad day the office) and for the first leg of a Betfair Multiple today I'll take Djokovic to win 3-0 at around [1.38].

I don't see any way (injury notwithstanding) how Hewitt can possibly nick a set off Djokovic in the form the world number one's in at the moment and that should set us up for the second and final leg, which is David Ferrer to beat Richard Gasquet at [1.5].

Rarely can there have been a wider gap between the attitude, determination and strength of character of two opposing players and I'd back Ferrer all day long against the mercurial underachiever Gasquet.

The Frenchman has reached the fourth round here twice in the past and lost in four sets both times and under what is set to be a very hot sun today, I can see the 'Gasman' melting away as he's forced into long, punishing rallies by the indefatigable Spaniard.

Ferrer has won five of their six previous matches, all of which have been straight sets wins for the victor and that could be the same again today.

Finally on the men's side tonight, Andy Murray takes on Mikhail Kukushkin in a match-up that the Scot shouldn't take too lightly.

Kukushkin has shown signs of improvement of late and although the [1.03] shot should take this, I would never back Murray against anyone half decent at that price.

The pair met less than a fortnight ago in Brisbane and the Kazakhstan player was good enough to take a set from the Scot then, but on the evidence of what was almost a choke for the ages against Gael Monfils in the last round, his temperament is not the best.

He's got nothing to lose though and might be good enough to win on the handicap with a [9.5] game start at around [2.0].

Continuing the theme of backing against the players who have done well just to make the second week, I'll take Zheng Jie to use her experience to end Sara Errani's unlikely run to the fourth round at a price of [1.44].

The diminutive Chinese player has reached the semi finals and the fourth round here on her last two visits and she also has a semi final appearance at Wimbledon to her name, which will give her an edge over her Italian opponent.

This is Errani's first time in the fourth round of a Slam and she's surely at the very limit of where her talent will take her, but she does have a 1-0 lead in the head-to-head match up.

This will be an awkward match for Zheng, as she prefers to counterpunch against pace from her opponents, which she won't get today, but I think the clever Zheng will figure out a way to get things done.

As far as outsiders go tonight, Ana Ivanovic has a shot at [4.1] against Petra Kvitova, as does Sabine Lisicki against Maria Sharapova at the same price, but you couldn't back either with any real confidence.

Recommended Bets

Back Ferrer [1.5] and Djokovic 3-0 [1.38] in a Betfair Multiple
Back Zheng to beat Errani at [1.44]

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

Petra Kvitova, a pretender to the number one ranking, is up aginst a former world number one in Ana Ivanovic. The beautiful Serb may not be able to knock out the Wimbledon champ but she should be able to take...

It's been a while since Jelena Jankovic has been at her best but a tie against current world number one Caroline Wozniacki should present a great chance to remind the world that she's a former world number one herself, says...

Kim Clijsters is the defending champ in Melbourne but she may be out of the running to defend that title sooner rather than later when she faces the same player she defeated in last year's final. Na Li looks in...

Amazon Watches Center

Boxing Betting: John Murray v Kevin Mitchell

Boxing Betting / Alex Steedman / 09 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Kevin Mitchell works the punchbag before going down against Michael Katsidis - he's not fought since but is still Steedo's big fight selection

"There are two developing trends with Murray - he gets hit too much and he's beginning to look like a one trick pony."

Forget all about David Haye's underwhelming defeat and get stuck into the 'fight of the year' between John Murray and Kevin Mitchell - a bout that has all the makings of a seriously entertaining showdown

For the third weekend in four the Sky cameras cover an 'event fight' - most fans have been licking their lips waiting for John Murray against Kevin Mitchell. This has been several years in the works but it almost can't fail to deliver and will thrust the winner onto a world title shot at Lightweight.

It feels as though that stage has been set up for Manchester's Murray ([1.59]) for some time but a loss here would certainly stall any grand plans. This is a big risk in many ways and all credit to Murray for encouraging such a dangerous match, but then that is his way, he's an old school fighter in both style and attitude.

The Boxing writers' Young Boxer of the Year in 2006, Murray has succeeded Mitchell as Britain's longest unbeaten fighter and has carved himself a role as the fan friendly, come forward rumbler. With a ledger now running to 31 wins, Murray has crammed experience into his career having fought in Canada as well as America, including an appearance on the undercard of Floyd Mayweather's blockbuster against Oscar De La Hoya four years ago. But he is beatable.

Further evidence of Murray's vulnerability came when he successfully defended his European Title in April against unheralded Karim El Ouazghari. As has become the norm, Murray rumbled forward seemingly unfussed by the artillery heading his way and, though grinding out the required decision win, he left the ring bearing the bumps and bruises of battle.

Now there is no doubt that the Mancunian has found it difficult to motivate himself against uninspiring opposition but there are two developing trends with Murray - he gets hit too much and he's beginning to look like a one trick pony. The heat and pressure Murray brings to attack is impressive in its own way and with six successive stoppages (2.58 KO/TKO/DQ) on the record, it is very effective at a certain level. But, for me, Murray lacks the subtlety required at and around world-class and Mitchell has the ability to be that kind of fighter.

Mitchell ([2.82]) himself comes into this fight with big questions as well as dark clouds gathering above his well-groomed head. The Eastender was one of Britain's brightest talents until he was chopped down to size by Aussie warrior Michael Katsidis in May of last year and he hasn't fought since.

Embarrassed in front of his adoring West Ham faithful at Upton Park, Mitchell went into the biggest fight of his life ill prepared both physically and mentally. It emerged quickly afterwards that he had skipped training while life at home was far removed from bliss and after falling to Katsidis in just three rounds, Mitchell embarked on a near six-month bender and by his own admission, caned £100,000 in the process. Promoter Frank Warren deserves praise for sticking with Mitchell through all of that and more for banking him this platform opportunity. Is Mitchell prepared and ready to pay him back?

Though there were 'trade' rumours about Mitchell's weight six to eight weeks ago, recent reports suggest that the Essex man has trained like a demon and significantly, experienced trainer Jimmy Tibbs has said on Frank Warren's website that Mitchell is in similar shape and showing the same focus as before his win over Breidis Prescott in late 2009. That is the same Prescott who hammered Amir Khan 15 months before yet Mitchell produced a performance full of quality and discipline to earn a deserved decision win. I don't think there is much doubt that Mitchell is more skilled than Murray and he has more variety in his repertoire too. In other words, Mitchell holds most of the cards provided he's in the right frame of mind to play them and perhaps at the right times too.

Despite the positive vibes emanating from the camp Mitchell there is the dark cloud of a reappearance date at Dagenham Police station looming on issues relating to drugs and while Mitchell hasn't been charged, it could be a distraction. And the fight is a week later than planned as Mitchell was forced out of the gym recently with a virus. There are so many niggling doubts. On the same note, I was out in Germany for the Matthew Macklin/Felix Sturm fight recently and John Murray seemed to be enjoying himself there, just a few weeks before the biggest fight of his life.

And this promises to be fight of the year. Were it not for his absence, the dramas of the past 12 months and that impending police date, I'd have Mitchell down as one of the most convincing bets of the year. If he is less than prepared, Murray will grind him down but as it stands Mitchell has the ability to win good looking and I'll be backing him to get the result.

Steedo's Selection
Mitchell to win - 3pts (0-10) @ [2.82]

Don't believe the markets, don't believe the naysayers - David Haye has got the tools to win his toughest fight yet and, if he uses them correctly, Wladimir Klitschko won't know what's hit him, says Alex Steedman....

The big man of British boxing will have to pull off an upset if he is to unify the belts, according to Betfair customers...

David Haye believes that he is at his "ideal perfect fighting weight" for his clash with Wladmir Klitschko despite weighing 30lbs less than his opponent....

Play Casino & Poker here

Monte Carlo Masters Tips: Nadal can win title after Murray scare

Events / Sean Calvert / 16 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Sean's backing Rafa for Monte Carlo glory

"The shock of dropping a set on clay will have sharpened Rafa up for Sunday’s championship match."

Fresh from an intense three set victory over Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal has to summon his energy and composure for Sunday's final against David Ferrer. Who is Sean Calvert backing?

Despite Jurgen Melzer's single-handed attempts to derail me this week, we should be still in profit after my original advice of a Nadal v Ferrer final came to fruition on Saturday.

The mercurial Melzer went down in straights to Ferrer in their semi-final and Andy Murray gave it all he had against Rafa, but was ground into submission in the end by the world number one.

So, those who were on my advice to back Nadal at [1.4] and Ferrer at [25.0] at the outset are comfortably in the money. But what of the final itself?

Murray showed that Nadal isn't totally unbeatable on the red dirt by grabbing the second set in their last four clash, but I think the shock of dropping a set on clay will have sharpened Rafa up for Sunday's championship match.

As you would expect, Nadal and Ferrer have quite a history, with Rafa leading 12-4 overall and 8-1 on the red dirt - Ferrer's only win coming way back in 2004 in Stuttgart.

Since then, Ferrer has managed to wrestle just two sets from Nadal in eight meetings and, although Nadal hasn't been at his peak this week in Monte-Carlo, it would take a brave individual to back Ferrer to buck that trend on Sunday.

Ferrer has been impressive here, but it's hard to see what he'll bring to the court that's new or different from their previous encounters. His strength is his consistency, stamina and dogged obstinance on the court, but these are all traits that today's opponent has in abundance and Nadal is better at it.

On these slow clay courts in Monte-Carlo, Ferrer's weight of shot is rarely going to breach Nadal's excellent defences and to expect him to do it time and again over three long sets is too much.

Unless Ferrer brings something significantly different to the table - and I can't think what that would be - Rafa should come through in two sets and that looks the bet at around [price]

Recommended Bet
Nadal to beat Ferrer 2-0

He's one of the great enigmas of the ATP Tour and when he's good, he's very good. Jurgen Melzer beat Roger Federer in straight sets on Friday and his stay in Monte Carlo may not be over just yet....

It all went wrong on Thursday when a volatile Spaniard let Sean Calvert down, but three more reliable types make up his bet on Friday at the Monte-Carlo Masters...

Austria's finest hit the world's top-ten recently but it's all gone downhill since, says Sean Calvert, and he is one to be against as the Monte Carlo Masters continues on Thursday...

Play Casino & Poker here