US Open Tips: Murray may have to go the extra mile to beat Raonic

"Milos Raonic was in superb form against James Blake after a slow start to the tournament that almost saw him dumped out by Santiago Giraldo and Murray can’t afford to play as he did for two sets against Lopez in this match."

Back over 38.5 games in Murray v Raonic @ 1.68/13

Sean Calvert looks at Andy Murray's fourth round showdown with Canadian Milos Raonic - a man in form who could trouble the Brit

Sunday's play at the US Open saw Laura Robson's excellent breakthrough tournament come to an end, but not before she'd won us another bet.

The British teenager bowed out in straight sets to Sam Stosur after struggling to find the kind of level she'd previously displayed, but she did enough to win our handicap wager and she's certainly been good to us this tournament.

Unfortunately Juan Martin Del Potro failed to win by the required amount of games to land my other wager as we head into week two in New York.

After a faltering performance against Feliciano Lopez, which he blamed on a lack of hot weather conditioning caused by going to the Olympics rather than training in Miami, Andy Murray faces a tougher assignment tonight.

Milos Raonic was in superb form against James Blake after a slow start to the tournament that almost saw him dumped out by Santiago Giraldo and Murray can't afford to play as he did for two sets against Lopez in this match.

Two of the three scheduled meetings between these players have been walkovers, so they've only actually faced each other once, which was at the tournament I was at in Barcelona this spring. Raonic won that day on the clay and on the form of their previous matches against Blake and Lopez respectively you would have to give the Canadian a strong chance of another upset.

It appears that the Olympics has done for a few players this summer and I wouldn't put a brass farthing on Murray at 1.331/3 in a dangerous match like this one, but he has been handed the substantial advantage of playing last under the lights in cooler conditions.

That is a huge boost to his chances, as playing conditions will be slower and Milos will have to serve to his absolute best level to win the match in these circumstances.

I don't trust Murray enough to back him at a short price, so I'm happy to take the overs in this one, as it looks sure to go to four sets at least. The total games mark is set at 38.5 and I'm going over that at a price of around 1.68/13.

In the women's draw today the clash between Angelique Kerber and Sara Errani looks to offer some value in backing the Italian with a 5.5 game start on the handicap.

While I expect the German to come through this one she's a little short at 1.251/4 and the diminutive Italian won't be brushed aside as comfortably as the odds are suggesting.

A much-improved player on all surfaces Errani's new found confidence has seen her dish out some convincing wins this tournament and she can stick this one out long enough to cover what looks a generous 5.5 game start.

This will be their third career meeting, with the score standing at 1-1 and although Kerber thrashed the world number 10 on a hard court last time out Errani won in straight sets on clay at Roland Garros and she's a different player to the one Kerber saw in Hobart.

These conditions will obviously favour Kerber and she should win, but probably not by as many as six games.

Recommended Bets
Back over 38.5 games in Murray v Raonic @ 1.68/13
Back Errani +5.5 games to beat Kerber at 1.845/6

Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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Tennis Betting: The rise and rise of Milos Raonic

General / Sean Calvert / 24 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Milos Raonic has already upset some big names

"The thing that first struck me about Raonic - other than his massive serve - was his confidence and calmness under pressure."

Sean Calvert discusses the rapid rise of a young Canadian player who is starting to make real waves...

Quiz question: Who is the best Canadian (male) tennis player of all time? No, it's not Greg Rusedski or even Frank Dancevic. It's Milos Raonic.

That's according to the rankings and despite having only in the last month appeared on most observers' (including mine) radars, the 20-year-old has blasted his way to number 37 in the world from 374 a year ago.

Pedants may point out that Rusedski reached number four in the world and a Grand Slam final, but he had long since 'defected' to play for Great Britain by that stage (he was ranked 47 when he switched) and on the looks of this year's evidence thus far, Raonic may go on to better those achievements in any case.

I was first alerted to Raonic in Melbourne this year when I noticed his results against Michael Llodra, Mikhail Youzhny and Ferrer and that effort was followed up when he won his first event in San Jose without dropping a set, beating Fernando Verdasco in the final.

On the back of that I advised him as my bet in Memphis and was fortunate enough to take someone's generous lay of [80.0] although he was generally available at [20.0].

I watched all of his matches at the Regions Morgan Keegan Championships and the thing that first struck me about Raonic - other than his massive serve - was his confidence and calmness under pressure.

This kid can not only hit a first serve at 150mph - that would make him just a slightly better version of Ivo Karlovic - but he can play as well. He'd be a handful to many in the top 20 without it.

The comparisons with Karlovic and John Isner are obvious, given their similarity in stature and their ace counts, but Ivo has little else to his game while Milos moves well and hits thunderous winners off both wings.

His inside out forehand reminds me a bit of Del Potro's, while some of his backhand winners arrowed down the line are like those of a Youzhny or Wawrinka, although two handed, so perhaps Djokovic might be technically a more accurate comparison.

He can volley too and with a reach like his, he's not an easy guy to pass at net, though he loves a target himself and drove Andy Roddick to distraction with one delightful top spin lob to go with passes down either line in Memphis.

So, he has all the shots, but the thing about his serve is that it's not just a flat 150mph down the middle blaster, Raonic often throws in a slow kicker out wide on first serve or a body serve - the variety left Roddick clueless.

OK, so Roddick's not the best returner, but the point is that the average receiver has no clue which way it's going and at what speed or trajectory.

Before we get too excited, there are chinks in his armour, but they should be able to be ironed out by coach Galo Blanco in the fullness of time.

He had a tendency to drop his level in his matches once ahead in Memphis and against Roddick he became too passive and was waiting for his opponent to cough up the error too often, whereas his strength lies in going for his shots.

The service motion is dead set, with eight bounces of the ball on first and second serve - no more, no less - and it looks an action that won't break down unless he tinkers with it.

The Montenegro-born Canadian, who turned 20 in December, reminds me a little of his boyhood hero, Pete Sampras, in the sense that he can be 0-30 or 0-40 down on serve and not get flustered, rather he comes up with a few aces and he's out of trouble.

The temper is there - you will see him hit his racquet on his shoe often in matches - but otherwise nothing seems to faze him.

Another interesting thing is his eagerness to compete on clay to improve his all-round game, something that most big servers don't bother with (and Roddick is a case in point there).

Verdasco got his knickers in a twist after losing to Raonic twice in a week and was quoted as saying: "For me that's not a real match in tennis. I hope to play soon against him in clay court to show him what it is to play tennis, and play rallies, and run, and not [just] serve.'

No sour grapes there then. If they do meet on clay, Verdasco might just find that Raonic can play a 'real tennis match' and play it rather better than he expects.

With no points to defend, top-20 looks a certainty for Canada's best player and he'll be a huge threat indoors and on quick outdoor hard-courts.

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