Sony Ericsson Betting: My money's on Murray

Events / Ben Caudell / 01 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

The only way is up. Andy Murray can get the better of Novak Djokovic today.

"Moreover, Murray has won their last five best-of-three set matches played on hard-courts (Dubai 2012, Cincinnati 2011, Miami 2009, Cincinnati 2008, and Toronto 2008)."

Andy Murray plays Novak Djokovic in today's final and though the Serbian goes into the game as the strong favourite, there are good arguments to make in favour of Murray being the value bet. Ben Caudell makes them here...

Former junior foes Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic face off at 18:00 (UK time) this evening in a repeat of the 2009 Miami Masters Final in which the Brit took home the honours with a straight sets victory 6-2 7-5.

With twelve matches played between the pair including a momentous five set thriller at this year's Australian Open, we can foresee another absorbing clash between two heavy weights of the men's game and a match that offers plenty of trading opportunities to get involved in.

World number one Novak Djokovic is priced at [1.45] in the match odds and is the deserved favourite. But Murray, who can be backed at a tasty [3.20] is the player I will be putting my money on to repeat his 2009 heroics.

First of all, Murray will be as fit as a fiddle and no doubt less fatigued than his opponent coming into tonight's final. The Brit required the services of lady luck on his side of the draw, which has seen the world number four reach the final having played only three matches. Thanks to his walkovers against Milos Raonic in the third round and against second favourite Rafael Nadal in the semi-finals, Murray will also be confident, having defeated Djokovic in their most recent match-up (6-2 7-5) in the semi-finals of Dubai.

In fact, although Murray has a losing head-to-head series record against the Serbian (5-7), if we discount the two Grand Slam meetings, the series would be tied at (5-5), Moreover, Murray has won their last five best-of-three set matches played on hard-courts (Dubai 2012, Cincinnati 2011, Miami 2009, Cincinnati 2008, and Toronto 2008).

Another standout stat that has influenced my decision to back Murra,y who spends a lot of his time training in Miami, is the fact that he has a career record of (8-1) in Master Series Finals. Aall of which took place on either indoor or out-door hard-courts.

Andy has won six of his last seven finals (at all levels) and four of his last five against top tenners. Tonight's match will be close affair and will probably be won in three sets. But the value resides with Murray to win his second Miami Master Series title and record a seventh Master Series final match win in a row.

Recommended Bets:

Back Andy Murray @ [3.20] to defeat Novak Djokovic

Back Over 22.5 Games @ [1.93]

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Sony Ericsson Daily Betting: Simon can edge out Melzer

Events / Ben Caudell / 25 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ben'sn backing Simon on Sunday

"Blanco is worth a small punt at [3.6] in the match odds, but I believe the value bet is to back the Spaniard +4.5 Games at anything over even money."

After a decent Saturday, Ben Caudell aims to make it a winning weekend with one bet from each draw in Miami...

Two of our three bets came in yesterday with Alberto Ramos defeating Feliciano Lopez in straight sets and Kevin Anderson versus Sam Querrey, exceeding the 23.5 suggested game line.

We start Sunday's proceedings with a bet on Gilles Simon, ranked 13 in the world, who can be backed at [1.7] to defeat the left-handed veteran Jurgen Melzer.
Simon comes into this match-up with a superior ranking as well as a better match and surface rating. He's won four of his last five matches on hard-courts and four of his last five in the United States.

With two wins over the Austrian on hard - the head-to-head series is tied at 2-2 - and, with three of the four matches going the distance, we can expect another close affair. But Simon gets my nod of approval to make the third round. He performed admirably in Indian Wells, where he reached the quarter-finals, and he will be confident in the knowledge that his opponent has lost four matches in a row when priced as an underdog (2.00 - 2.99).

Another player to take note of today is Spanish teen sensation Garbine Muguruza Blanco who defeated Vera Zvonareva 6-4 6-4 in round two. She has incredible form coming into her match against the aging Flavia Pennetta, having won nine matches in a row on hard-courts, five in a row against big servers and four of her last five when priced as a moderate underdog ([3.0] - [5.99])

Clearwater ITF champion Blanco is worth a small punt at [3.6] in the match odds, but I believe the value bet is to back the Spaniard +4.5 Games at anything over even money.

Recommended Bets
Back Gilles Simon @ [1.7] to beat Jurgen Melzer
Back Muguruza @ [2.1] + 4.5 games against Flavia Pennetta

Ben Caudell explains why he's backing two outsiders today and anticipating a long match between Sam Querrey and Kevin Anderson......

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Sony Ericsson Tips: In-form Matosevic to keep good run going

Events / Ben Caudell / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Marinko Matosevic has hit a good streak

"My bet of the day is to back Marinko Matosevic of Australia to defeat Robin Haase of the Netherlands @ [1.9] in the match odds market."

Ben Caudell begins a week of tipping with a look at the first round of this Masters Series event in Miami and an Aussie on a hot streak is his first bet...

A stomach bug swept through the locker room in Indian Wells last week with eight payers falling victim to the virus during the early rounds of the tournament.

That event was hit by a number of withdrawals and that has continued on the other side of the US with six players retiring on day one of qualifying in the Miami Masters Series, followed by two more yesterday.

As a heads-up, remember that if a player retires before the first set has been completed all match odds bets will be voided. Should a player retire at any stage after the completion of the first set all bets stand.

Although we are unsure about the true circumstances surrounding any retirement, having sifted through many of today's matches there a couple of players to keep an eye on due to illness or injury.

The first player to look out for is Philipp Petzschner of Germany who has lost six of his last seven matches overall and five of his last six when priced as a favourite (2.00 - 2.99) therefore consider backing Ivan Dodig @ [2.1] especially seeing as the German recently stated the following on twitter:
14 March - Hey guys, I am injured since a couple of weeks, as some of you already realized...

Tommy Haas is another player to oppose. He retired from the Dallas Challenger event only last week due to a stiff back and has poor form in Miami and at Master Series level losing four of his last five matches. His Opponent, Guillaume Ruffin should be considered @ [2.86].

The Frenchman has won through two rounds of qualifying without losing a set and has won four of his last five matches in the USA.

My bet of the day however is to back Marinko Matosevic of Australia to defeat Robin Haase of the Netherlands @ [1.9] in the match odds market.

Twenty-six-year-old Matosevic has risen from 203 to a career high of 122 in the world rankings since the start of the year and has won 15 of his last 17 matches. Since February Marinko has triumphed at the Caloundra Challenger tournament as well as reaching the final of Delray Beach, an event he had to qualify for.

Although this will be the first competitive match between the two, Matosevic comes into the match with a superior surface rating and match rating (Match Ratings assess form specific to the current tournament conditions and the opposing player). Moreover, Haase has lost six of his last seven matches in Master Series events and 50% of his last ten matches on tour and is in dire form. The [1.9] currently on offer for a Matosevic win in my view represents a decent value bet.

Recommended Bet
Back Marinko Matosevic to defeat Robin Haase @ [1.9]

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