Financial betting: What's going to move the markets this week?

"There will be plenty of interesting activity on the financial markets linked to all sorts of industries over the coming days."

A short week thanks to the bank holiday weekend but a busy one nonetheless, with plenty of trading statements and reports on the way...

This week's company reports

Plenty of trading statements are scheduled for publication over the next few days, so spread bettors with a Tradefair Plus account should keep an eye out to see how they will affect how their bets pan out.

On Tuesday, Antofagasta Holdings, Bunzl, Regus and WPP publish their Q2 results, while statements from Stagecoach and Petrofac are also lined up.

Wednesday sees the release of second quarter statements from Cape and Kenmare Resources, while interim results will come from John Laing Infrastructure Fund and Talvivaara Mining Company.

In addition, half-year results from 888 Holdings and annual results from Air New Zealand will also be published. Other names issuing trading statements tomorrow include Cambian, APR Energy, Chime Communications, Evraz, Grafton, Foxtons, Polymetal International and Hansteen.

Thursday is a particularly busy day, with the likes of Melrose Industries, Arrow Global, Gulf Marine Services, IP Group, Hays, Marshalls and Lamprell lifting the lid on their recent performances.

Trading statements from Nostrum Oil & Gas, Paddy Power, Playtech, Petropavlovsk, Salamander Energy, SOCO International, STV Group, Servelec, UNITE and Xaar also lined up for publication.

Finally, Friday will see releases from Chesnara, Berendsen, Bwin.party, Headlam, Computacenter, Lavendon, Stobart and The Restaurant Group.

So it looks as if there will be plenty of interesting activity on the financial markets linked to all sorts of industries over the coming days.

Housing market data to be issued

A few upcoming reports should help us get a good idea of what conditions in the housing market are like now - which might offer an insight into how well the wider economy is doing at the moment.

On Wednesday, the Council of Mortgage Lenders releases its Regional Lending Trends report for London, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, which contains figures for the second quarter of 2014.

Meanwhile, the Land Registry publishes its market trend data for July 2014 and its monthly house price index.

Wednesday also sees the release of the Nationwide Building Society's latest house price figures for August 2014.

Of course, the summer is traditionally a quiet time for the housing market, so the figures might not necessarily be entirely reflective of conditions in the market and the prevailing mood among consumers right now.

Nevertheless, they could still offer some valuable pointers as to which way the sector is likely to go as we move into autumn.

Other reports set for release

A number of other reports that are scheduled for publication this week could be useful for spread bettors who are monitoring conditions in certain industries, as well as the wider economy.

For example, the CBI will release its Quarterly Distributive Trades Survey on Thursday. On the same day, BEA publishes its second quarter estimates of gross domestic product, while the European Central Bank will issue its national balance sheet of euro area monetary financial institutions, excluding the eurosystem, for July 2014.

The week rounds off with the Office for National Statistics publishing its provisional results for business investment in the second quarter of the year, as well as an economic briefing report from the British Retail Consortium.

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Going Reports: Sunday, September 22

Product reviews and advice for best reference

The Punter's In-Play Blog: Will we ever get going in Hawaii?

“Either they have a completely different forecast to the one I’ve been viewing or, they consider three or four knots as a considerable change in wind speed. ”

The 2013 US PGA Tour still hasn't started but the weather is supposed to improve today and we could be in luck. The Punter's not convinced however...

10:55 - January 6, 2013 
With the unrelenting winds refusing to ease in Hawaii, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions still hasn't officially started. Delays inevitably progressed to abandonment yesterday and the event has now been reduced to 54 holes, which still seems extremely optimistic. 

The plan now is to play 36 holes today, starting at 7.10am local time (5.10pm UK time), followed by 18 on Monday, fingers and toes crossed. The PGA Tour website yesterday stated that the weather forecast is much better for today which suggests one of two things. Either they have a completely different forecast to the one I've been viewing or, they consider three or four knots as a considerable change in wind speed. 

If play does get underway, and I'm far from convinced it ever will, the live coverage on Sky starts earlier than advertised, at 8.00pm, and tonight could develop into a busy one. 

10:40 - January 5, 2013 
The 2013 US PGA Tour is just a few hours old but it's already descended into farce. The forecast strong winds arrived in Hawaii yesterday, where the traditional seasonal opener, the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, is being held and with some players out on the course and some yet to start, play for round one was abandoned, with all the scores scrapped. 

Webb Simpson, a popular choice with some very shrewd judges, including our very own Paul Krishnamurty, was handling the brutal conditions quite brilliantly and whilst others were racking up double and triple bogeys or worse, the US Open champ was showing his class in no uncertain terms. He was the only player under-par and had somehow gotten to -3 through seven holes when play was stopped.

The decision to scrap the scores suited me as my man, Carl Pettersson, was one of those worst affected by the weather. Having pared the 1st hole, his tee-shot on the par 3 2nd had landed just shy of the putting surface. He played what looked a perfectly judged second shot but instead of stopping a foot from the pin, as looked likely, a gust of wind blew it 30 feet past!  Bubba Watson described it as goofy golf and you can see where he was coming from!

Simpson had been matched at a low of 6.05/1 in-running and you have to have sympathy for his backers, who will quite understandably claim it's just the luck of the draw. After all, nobody ever said the game was meant to be fair and there is a draw bias to some extent virtually every week, but I can see why they've done what they've done, with some players having not even teed off. I do think they were naive with the course set-up though. Could they not have placed the pins better and not cut the greens so short?

Anyway, the plan now is to play 36 holes today, with the field starting off two tees at 7.30am local time (5.30pm UK time).  I assume the greens won't have been cut and more thought will be given to pin placement but they're still up against it as the weather is forecast to be no better at all.

I'm going to leave my bet in place but there is a chance that the event could get reduced to 36 holes and that it becomes a bit of a lottery (if it isn't already) so I certainly wouldn't advise getting heavily involved.

The market is currently suspended but once a decision has been made with regards to bets placed after the start yesterday, I'll be sure to update you here.

Selection:
Carl Pettersson @ 28.027/1

*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter

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The Big Saturday Multiple: Coventry to keep the run going

Bet 1: Coventry City @ 2.37n/a

Bet 2: Bradford City @ 2.26/5

Bet 3: Gillingham @ 1.664/6

Two sleeping giants in form are included in Jonno Turner's Big Saturday Multiple. Our man rounds things off with a bet on Gillingham...

We're off to the Midlands for our first pick of this three team multiple - and the Ricoh Arena, as in-form Coventry City play host to Notts County.

Home boss Mark Robins has really hit the ground running since being installed at the helm of the Sky Blues, and will be desperate for his side to extend their recent unbeaten run and make it six without a loss.

Some impressive wins, coupled with hard-fought draws on their travels, is exactly the kind of form that the home side will need to maintain if they are to make their mark on the top end of this division - and the fruits of Robins' labour are already beginning to show, as his side have pulled clear of the relegation zone to which they appeared chained just a few weeks ago.

Another three points in this clash could lift City right up towards mid table - but decent results against the likes of MK Dons and Bournemouth at the Ricoh in recent weeks shows that the hosts are more than capable of going toe to toe with the quality sides in this competition.

Notts County are a side who experienced a similar improvement in results last campaign following the appointment of Keith Curle as boss at Meadow Lane - but that honeymoon is over, and results have been far from satisfactory of late.

A decent start to the campaign saw the Magpies cement their place at the right end of the table, but three losses from their last four has seen the Nottingham side slip down to fifth in the table - and another defeat here could see them fall out of the play-off reckoning.

Just one win from their last four on the road suggests that the visitors may struggle to secure three points in the Midlands, and I'm backing the home win at what I believe are cracking odds on a Coventry side full of momentum.

There have been two or more goals in six of the last eight games featuring these two sides - so I'm also chucking a few quid at the 'Over 2.5 goals' market, which is priced at 2.04 at the time of writing.

Bet 1: Coventry City @ 2.37n/a

Dropping down a level now, to League Two, and Bradford City, another 'sleeping giant' who have hit form of late, welcome Cheltenham Town to Valley Parade.

The Bantams have endured a torrid time in recent years, and their fall from grace from Premiership new boys to fourth tier strugglers has been alarming.

But there is light at the end of the tunnel - boss Phil Parkinson has re-energised this West Yorkshire club, and they are currently on an impressive run of just one loss in ten outings on their own patch.

That form has led the hosts to eighth in the table, and another three points in front of the Bantams faithful here could put them right into the mix with around a third of the campaign gone.

Cheltenham are on a decent trot of their own though - and this one will not be an easy game for the home side.

Manager Mark Yates will be delighted with the early season form of his side, and they go into this one sitting pretty in third place in the division.

But just one win from their last three going into this game suggest that the momentum shown by the Robins may be wearing off somewhat, and the visiting boss will be desperate for his side to regain some confidence in West Yorkshire.

More worryingly, seven goals shipped in their last three points to defensive issues - and although the visitors did beat AFC Wimbledon last time out, they made hard work of it, and nearly let the strugglers back into the game at the death.

This will be a tough game for both sides, but I fancy Bradford's home advantage to pay dividends here.

Bet 2: Bradford City @ 2.26/5

Staying in the bottom tier for our final pick of this multiple, and league leaders Gillingham are aiming to make it seven wins from nine as they host Burton Albion at Priestfield.

Three wins from their last four in front of their own fans has seen the Gills cement their position at the summit of the division - but it is not just their ability to grind out results which is turning heads, it's also the manner in which they are doing so.

Three clean sheets from four at home shows that the hosts have the defensive quality to fend off the majority of sides at this level, and I don't think that Burton will give them much to worry about this weekend.

And the Kent side will be full of vigour and confidence following a 4-0 thrashing of Aldershot last weekend which saw them pull three points clear of nearest rivals Port Vale in the early stages of what promises to be an exciting title race.

Visitors Burton are currently sitting in fifth place in the table - and will be happy with that, but they have endured a nightmare few weeks of late, and just one win from half a dozen games going into this tie is not the best preparation for travelling to the league leaders.

Boss Gary Rowett will be keen to arrest that slump, but salvation is unlikely to come this weekend as the Gills look to put even more space between themselves and their promotion rivals.

Just one win from four away from the Pirelli Stadium suggests that the visitors may struggle in this one, and with numerous sides breathing down their necks, the Brewers could slip out of the play-off positions if they fail to secure any points in this one.

Gillingham have scored the first goal in three of their last five, and I expect them to burst out of the traps in this one, so I'm backing the Gillingham HT/FT at odds of 2.56/4.

Bet 3: Gillingham @ 1.664/6

*

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission

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MLB Tipping Sheet: Flying Phillies to keep good run going

"A win over New York would be Philadelphia's fifth in a row, and I have a sneaky suspicion that they might become a serious contender through October."

Back Philadelphia @ 1.728/11

The MLB season keeps on trucking so Federico Farcomeni previews another three matches ahead of tonight's action

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies could miss the post-season for the first time in six years, but they have been on a hot streak of late. A win here would be their fifth in a row, and I have a sneaky suspicion that they might become a serious contender through October. The momentum is there - they have won seven out of their last nine, including a sweep of the Nationals who sit 16.5 games above them, over the weekend. As Cliff Lee put it: "Stranger things have happened. We've only recently started to play the way we should have. It's not a surprise to us." On the other side, the Mets have just beaten baseball's worst, Houston, and have possibly lowered their game before this important match-up.

San Francisco Giants @ Houston Astros
With all the attention concentrating on LA Dodgers, the Giants have responded well. The last week of the regular season, when they come face-to-face with their rivals, will be decisive. But for now the 2010 World Champions should just make the most of their six games series on the road against baseball's worst (Houston and Cubs). Matt Cain (13-5, 2.83 ERA) might have gone 0-2 with a 7.27 ERA in three starts at Minute Maid Park, but he's 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA in two outings against the Astros in 2012, including a perfect game in June in which he struck out a career-high 14 in a 10-0 win. Sweet memories and the gap in skill and motivation should provide the Giants with that extra boost they need to overshadow the Dodgers in the NL West. On the other side, the Astros seem incapable of scoring against such strong opposition, having touched the home plate just 34 times during a 2-11 stretch.

Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks
It's Johnny Cueto (16-6, 2.47 ERA) versus Wade Miley (14-8, 2.80) at Chase Field. Two of the best pitchers in baseball go head-to-head in what is expected to be a dramatic encounter. The pitching statistics here are just too good to believe this game can provide the audience with more than 8.5 runs.

Recommended Bets
Back Philadelphia @ 1.728/11
Back San Francisco to overcome the 1.5 run handicap @ 1.794/5
Back Under 8.5 runs @ 1.68/13 in Cincinnati at Arizona

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York Ebor Betting Bulletin: Will you be going Barefoot at York?

"The Sky Bet Mobile Stakes is the top-traded race on the card with more than £270,000 locked up already. To us, it’s impossibly cryptic. Unless, of course, you read the Pricewise column, in which case it’s a piece of cake and Willie Wag Tail will waltz home. Many of you agree, as tumbling odds of 6.05/1 from 9.08/1 seem to indicate."

All the fancies and fallers from the morning's betting before day three of the Ebor meeting

The main focus today as far as quality goes is the Nunthorpe Stakes at 15:40. Four quality sprinters are battling it out at the head of the market and the finely balanced nature of the contest has fired up the Betfair masses. They've stumped up more than £200,000 at the time of writing (12:15: and that pot is swelling at a rapid rate.

Bated Breath is desperately seeking his first Group 1 win and although he's usually there or thereabouts he needs to make an extra effort today. The market is still scratching its collective head over whether he will or not, but he's a solid joint-favourite at the moment and a live contender. What will actually go off favourite at the off is anybody's guess; this is competitive racing at its finest.

Surprisingly at the time of writing the opening Class 2 handicap over a mile-and-a-half, the Sky Bet Mobile Stakes is the top-traded race on the card with more than £270,000 locked up already. Rubik's Revenge seems a doddle in comparison with sorting out the winner of this contest... it's impossibly cryptic. Unless, of course, you read the Pricewise column, in which case it's a piece of cake and Willie Wag Tail will waltz home. Many of you agree, as tumbling odds of 6.05/1 from 9.08/1 seem to indicate.

Next up creating a buzz on our site is the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes at 14:30. This important two-year-old dash has raked in more than £100,000 so far with Pearl Acclaim, the second favourite, moving in from 6.25/1 to 5.59/2. The first three in the betting all have their supporters so liquidity should continue to be buoyant and value available on any of your fancies.

For some unknown reason the market for the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at 15:05 has yet to catch fire, but we expect this to change once the big hitters have digested their elevenses and re-focussed their attention. The £75,000 already clicked into place should explode in an hour or so and the interesting filly for money here is the ultra-consistent Barefoot Lady. Punters have forced her down from 10.09/1 to 8.415/2.

If you're alive and kicking tomorrow morning, and we very much hope you are, this is the place to be for all the money moves in the Ebor and beyond. See you then.

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Open Championship: Will Lytham spell an end to Lee's major hopes going West?

"So while the golfing gods can also be cruel, Westwood is the first to point out that there’s more joy than struggle in the eternal labour of the game he loves."

Romilly Evans asks if Lee Westwood can finally get over the major line in the Open at Royal Lytham...

The philosopher Albert Camus always believed that anticipation was the purest form of pleasure. Better than the memory, better than the deed. In that, while the good things that actually happen to you often disappoint, those that never come to pass become engraved upon your heart with a bittersweet sadness.

Camus even argued that Sisyphus, Greek antiquity's poster boy for a bad day at the office, took satisfaction from his eternal punishment of pushing a boulder up a mountain, only for it to tumble back to the bottom as it reached the peak. The gods of Olympus had intended for Sisyphus to endure eternal frustration. Camus countered that there was joy to be found in this seemingly pointless struggle.

If Camus was right, Lee Westwood must be having the time of his life. After all, The Worksop Wonder has been rolling his boulder up the mountainside of major golf for longer than English golf fans care to remember. A total of 57 majors and counting to be exact. Every time he posts his name near the top of the Sunday leaderboard, down it falls. The near-misses have stacked up like planes approaching Heathrow, with eight top 10 finishes in the last 12 Majors. Westwood simply appears incapable of landing one safely.

Along the way, Westwood has become world number one, a prolific worldwide winner, multi-millionaire, contented family man, even an Officer of the Order of the British Empire. So while the golfing gods can also be cruel, Westwood is the first to point out that there's more joy than struggle in the eternal labour of the game he loves.

Of course, the mountain of public expectation grows ever steeper with the passing years. Especially at Westy's home Open next week, where the crowds will flock to see if their man can finally end his hoodoo in an event no Englishman has won since Nick Faldo triumphed at Muirfield in 1992. However, Westwood's form ahead of the Open suggests they can dare to dream once more.

The 39-year-old has contended wherever he has roamed this season, notching five top-10 finishes in eight events on the PGA Tour and five top-10s in 10 European Tour starts, punctuated by a recent victory at the Nordea Masters. He also reclaimed his Indonesian Masters crown.

As for the all-important majors, it's been a perennial refrain: third at The Masters, then a tie for 10th at the US Open, which looked altogether more promising until he bizarrely lost a ball up a tree in the final round. Even Westwood admitted to suffering from a severe case of the here-we-go-agains.

But as the Open returns to Royal Lytham this year, there is perhaps more reason for him to fend off the mental demons. And not just because this classic Lancashire links doesn't have any trees. Rather, when the Open last visited this corner of Lancashire in 2001, another nearly man of peerless precision with his woods and irons walked off with the Claret Jug. David Duval was that player and the similarities between the two golfers are stark: forever gifted, forever thwarted. Maybe Westwood's time is finally at hand around a course which should reward his accuracy and ball-striking.

Fears over last week's injury scare at the French Open (where he slipped walking over to the first tee) have proven to be unfounded - "the leg is perfectly fine, my fitness guy said I could play again this week if I really wanted to." Which means the only missing link is his old caddie, Billy Foster, who sadly hasn't recovered from his own leg injury to be on the bag this week. That said, the affable Foster will still be at Lytham to cheer on his great friend and despite the mixed emotions, none will be pulling harder.

If Westwood does manage to shake the monkey off his back (and Betfair players make him second favourite at 18.017/1 to back), he may be left feeling as Duval did in the wake of his milestone win. "I just thought it would feel sweeter than this," Double D opined to his caddie soon afterwards.

So maybe Camus was right about the human condition. There can be no joy without the struggle. Still, after all the years of frustration, Westwood's legion of supporters won't mind one bit if they see their man home. The Englishman who went up a hill but came down a mountain a major champion.

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Sony Ericsson Tips: In-form Matosevic to keep good run going

Events / Ben Caudell / 21 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Marinko Matosevic has hit a good streak

"My bet of the day is to back Marinko Matosevic of Australia to defeat Robin Haase of the Netherlands @ [1.9] in the match odds market."

Ben Caudell begins a week of tipping with a look at the first round of this Masters Series event in Miami and an Aussie on a hot streak is his first bet...

A stomach bug swept through the locker room in Indian Wells last week with eight payers falling victim to the virus during the early rounds of the tournament.

That event was hit by a number of withdrawals and that has continued on the other side of the US with six players retiring on day one of qualifying in the Miami Masters Series, followed by two more yesterday.

As a heads-up, remember that if a player retires before the first set has been completed all match odds bets will be voided. Should a player retire at any stage after the completion of the first set all bets stand.

Although we are unsure about the true circumstances surrounding any retirement, having sifted through many of today's matches there a couple of players to keep an eye on due to illness or injury.

The first player to look out for is Philipp Petzschner of Germany who has lost six of his last seven matches overall and five of his last six when priced as a favourite (2.00 - 2.99) therefore consider backing Ivan Dodig @ [2.1] especially seeing as the German recently stated the following on twitter:
14 March - Hey guys, I am injured since a couple of weeks, as some of you already realized...

Tommy Haas is another player to oppose. He retired from the Dallas Challenger event only last week due to a stiff back and has poor form in Miami and at Master Series level losing four of his last five matches. His Opponent, Guillaume Ruffin should be considered @ [2.86].

The Frenchman has won through two rounds of qualifying without losing a set and has won four of his last five matches in the USA.

My bet of the day however is to back Marinko Matosevic of Australia to defeat Robin Haase of the Netherlands @ [1.9] in the match odds market.

Twenty-six-year-old Matosevic has risen from 203 to a career high of 122 in the world rankings since the start of the year and has won 15 of his last 17 matches. Since February Marinko has triumphed at the Caloundra Challenger tournament as well as reaching the final of Delray Beach, an event he had to qualify for.

Although this will be the first competitive match between the two, Matosevic comes into the match with a superior surface rating and match rating (Match Ratings assess form specific to the current tournament conditions and the opposing player). Moreover, Haase has lost six of his last seven matches in Master Series events and 50% of his last ten matches on tour and is in dire form. The [1.9] currently on offer for a Matosevic win in my view represents a decent value bet.

Recommended Bet
Back Marinko Matosevic to defeat Robin Haase @ [1.9]

Now 23 matches undefeated after victory in Indian Wells, Victoria Azarenka leads the WTA's stars to Miami for an equally important event - the Sony Ericsson Open. But Guy McCrea thinks her brilliant run could finally end this fortnight......

It's finals day in Indian Wells and the greatest player of his generation will go off as a heavy favourite to win another title - and Sean Calvert can't find a reason to oppose him......

It's men's semi-final day at the BNP Paribas Open with the headline act being another instalment of Nadal v Federer and Sean Calvert is backing the Spaniard to extend his good record against the Swiss master...

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Cheltenham Going: Thursday March 15

Going Report / Editor / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

First Race Time: 13:30
Going: Good to soft, good in places (watered)
Other Information: Dry overnight. Dry, mainly cloudy day forecast with some sunny spells.
5-8mm of irrigation applied overnight, finishing at 2am.

First Race Time: 13:45 Going: Chase course - good to soft Hurdles course - good, good to soft in places Other Information: Dry overnight. Dry day with sunny spells forecast....

First Race Time: 13:55 Going: Good to soft, good in places Other Information: Dry overnight. Overcast, foggy morning forecast to clear....

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Indian Wells Betting: Azarenka to keep the winning streak going

Events / Guy McCrea / 08 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Victoria Azarenka has become mentally and physically stronger and is starting to manage her workload better

"Throughout her Australian Open title run, Azarenka exhibited emotional stability she had never shown before at the Slams – even when she got understandably nervous during her semi-final win over defending champion Kim Clijsters."

She's the Australian Open champion, the new World Number One and is on an unbeaten run spanning 17 matches. But what is it that's all of a sudden clicked in Victoria Azarenka's game that's made her the one to beat, asks Guy McCrea.

Seventeen straight match wins. Three titles, including a first Grand Slam crown at the Australian Open. World number one for the first time. It's definitely been the stuff of dreams so far in 2012 for Victoria Azarenka, currently priced around 2.98 favourite on Betfair to win the BNP Paribas Open.

Assessing Azarenka's rise, I like to think back to almost a year ago in Miami. There, Azarenka ripped through a slew of top names to lift her second Sony Ericsson Open title. Entry to the top 5 for the first time and then a maiden Grand Slam semi-final appearance at Wimbledon soon followed. Azarenka later ended her 2011 season with a runner-up finish at the year-end WTA Championships.

My point is that these first couple of months of 2012 - particularly her maiden major title in Melbourne - are simply the culmination of what was likely for some time. And thanks largely to that Grand Slam success, Azarenka already holds a greater acceptance of her status from most general tennis followers than Caroline Wozniacki ever did during her 67 week stay at the WTA summit.

For me, the key factor behind Azarenka's rise is that she is just so much more mentally strong than in the past, when she would often implode and lose matches that should have been won. Throughout her Australian Open title run, Azarenka exhibited emotional stability she had never shown before at the Slams - even when she got understandably nervous during her semi-final win over defending champion Kim Clijsters.

There have also been a couple of key changes in Azarenka's game. She has markedly improved her movement around the court and also hits her groundstrokes with much greater margin now than earlier in her career. Azarenka does still have weapons - her first serve and backhand can be extremely potent - but these changes have allowed her to fully prosper, particularly on the slow hardcourt surfaces which dominate modern professional tennis.

Add to this Azarenka's improved fitness record and you understand why she's reached the top. The Belarusian is clearly stronger and there is also evidence that she and her team are looking to better manage the demands of her playing schedule. Remember, this is a player who retired hurt from almost a third of the tournaments she played during the 2010 season.

Azarenka's withdrawal from Dubai two weeks ago is a good example. Fresh off winning the title in Doha, where she picked up an ankle knock - Azarenka decided she wasn't fit enough to go straight into playing another event the following week. In the past Azarenka's record suggests she may well have played, would have then struggled through a match or two before pulling out, having aggravated the problem.

Now fully fit again and still full of confidence, Azarenka is out to continue her winning streak at Indian Wells, one of the sport's most prestigious events. It is tough to bet against Azarenka on current form. After an opening round bye, she is unlikely to have too much trouble with Mona Barthel in their second round clash. The German is also a young woman on the rise, but she isn't good enough yet to entertain the upset. It has to be Azarenka [1.32] in straight sets.

Beyond that, it is true the world number one is still to show that she can consistently beat her good friend Caroline Wozniacki [11.5] and Petra Kvitova [5.4]. Both have had Azarenka's number in the past - not least Kvitova who beat the Belarusian three times in 2011, including at the WTA Championships final.

But far from being fearful of the prospect, I think Azarenka would fancy the challenge of playing one, or both of them should they meet in the latter stages in California. Kvitova hasn't played since reaching the Australian Open semi-finals and also hasn't proven yet that she can play her best tennis on American hardcourts. There is huge pressure too on Wozniacki, who is defending champion in Indian Wells. The Dane could crash out of the WTA top 5 for the first time since September 2009 if she can't produce another deep run in the desert.

Outside of those two, it is tough to see who else can really challenge Azarenka - especially in the absence of both Kim Clijsters and Serena Williams. Along with her sister Venus, the American has boycotted Indian Wells every year since a controversial incident back in 2001.

Maria Sharapova [7.0] is in decent form, but Azarenka thrashed the Russian in the Australian Open final and thrives in their match-up. There is also Agnieszka Radwanska [13.0] who Azarenka could meet in the quarter finals. The Pole has enjoyed an excellent past six months on the WTA, most recently winning in Dubai to crack the WTA top 5 for the first time. But tellingly, all her three losses so far in 2012 have come at the hands of Azarenka.

Who knows how long she can keep her streak going? But for the moment at least, everything points to a fourth straight WTA title of 2012 for Azarenka next weekend.

This is a tournament where handling the heat of the Californian desert is as important as serving and returning well. The rested Rafael Nadal returns for this one and with a good draw, is the man to side with, says...

Murray backers will be getting a value price about the British no.1 in today's final against Roger Federer......

It's a family affair in Dubai this week for the world number one, but Sean Calvert fancies a wager on Andy Murray at more attractive odds......

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Cheltenham 2012: Going update from Simon Claisse

Latest News / Timeform / 22 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

What will the going be at the Cheltenham Festival?

"If I had to give a going description now, I would call it good, good to firm in places"

Simon Claisse, Clerk of the Course and Director of Racing at Cheltenham Racecourse, has news of the ground ahead of the Cheltenham Festival in March...

He said: "We think we might have temperatures of 15 and 16 degrees Celsius by the end of the week.

"The course was pretty well frozen from Festival Trials Day (January 28) until Tuesday of last week.

"We managed to get a bit of fertiliser on it last week and I have taken the decision this morning that we will start to water the course tomorrow, primarily to activate that fertiliser.

"If I had to give a going description now, I would call it good, good to firm in places and my expectation would be, without the six to seven millimetres of irrigation we are going to put on, that come Sunday or Monday we would be good to firm.

"The outlook that I have been given today for the next week is predominantly dry. We still remain somewhere between 40 to 50 per cent of our normal expected annual rainfall.

"February, apart from a little bit of snow, has been a particularly dry month - I don't think we have recorded two or three millimetres since the beginning of the month.

"We are trying maintain the ground at good. There will probably still be a little bit of good to firm after we finish this first bout of watering.

"Our own reservoir is full - we had a nice spell of rain after the International meeting in December which enabled us to fill the reservoir so we do have plenty of water in stock.

"The water we collect and put in our reservoir is harvested from the site. What we are doing is catching rainwater and putting it on the course. It then goes into the drains and back into the reservoir - the water goes around in circles."

What will the Official Going be on the opening day of the Festival? Click HERE to see the latest odds.

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Timeform Radio Tip: Is he going to be a good Lad and deliver?

Timeform Radio Tip / David Cleary / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Two bets from the in-form David Cleary to try and make this a good Thursday for all of us...

Leicester and Musselburgh provide today's jumping action and while the cards look rather run-of-the-mill, there are a few races which will hopefully offer good betting opportunities. Marginally the best race of the day is the novice handicap chase at Leicester at 16.35. This has a competitive look to it, certainly more open than the morning prices indicate with Prince of Pirates a short price on reputation and potential rather than form. The pick of the prices looks to be Gotoyourplay, who showed marked improvement to win a similar event at Newbury last time. The first two did well to come clear in that and although Gotoyourplay has gone up plenty, he might have gone up more. The sound-jumping Lexicon Lad is the chief danger.

Staying at Leicester, the two-mile novice chase at 15.35 has attracted a field of just six, three of which face stiff tasks in a ratings-related contest. Quite The Man could be a danger if a break has freshened him up, but the race is most likely to concern Niceonefrankie and He's Our Lad. He's Our Lad hasn't won so often as he should have and doesn't always find much under pressure, but wearing blinkers for the first time today may help in that regard. His form looks stronger than that of his main rival.

Recommended Bets:

Back Gotoyourplay @ [9.4] in the 16.35 at Leicester

Back He's Our Lad @ [3.7] in the 15.35 at Leicester

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Going for Knockouts in Tournaments: Is It Worth It?

Poker Strategy / Short-Stacked Shamus / 09 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Knocking out an opponent in a tournament sure feels good, but does it always pack that much of a punch to do so?

In a bounty tournament, it might seem worth going out of our way in certain instances to try to score a knockout. But in a non-bounty tournament should we ever be going out of our way to eliminate someone?

So-called "bounty" or "knockout" tournaments have become increasingly popular over recent years, especially when it comes to online poker. These are tourneys for which part of the prize pool is set aside to reward players with a certain amount for eliminating an opponent along the way, with the remainder going to the top finishers as in non-bounty tourneys. Evidence of the increasing popularity of such events is the addition of a non-bracelet "bounty" tourney to the 2012 WSOP schedule in which cash prizes will be awarded to players eliminating opponents who have won WSOP bracelets in the past.

Such a format often will affect a player's strategy, perhaps encouraging one to seek opportunities to eliminate opponents where one wouldn't otherwise in order to secure bounties. After all, depending on how the payouts are scheduled, it is often possible to collect enough bounties to turn a profit in a bounty tournament without even surviving into the money.

The emergence of these bounty tourneys invites us to think about the inherent value of eliminating opponents even when there are no bounties for doing so. We know there exists some value for us whenever a player is knocked out in a tournament, as that occurrence always moves us one step closer to the cash or, if the bubble has already burst, one spot higher on the payout schedule. But how valuable is it, really, to eliminate an opponent during the pre-bubble -- i.e., early and middle stages -- of a tournament?

In a bounty tournament, it might seem worth going out of our way in certain instances to try to score a knockout. But in a non-bounty tournament should we ever be going out of our way to eliminate someone?

Until relatively recently, it was sometimes suggested by tourney pros and other strategists that in freeze-out tourneys with standard payout schedules, eliminating an opponent was always to be considered a positive play. Such thinking would encourage players with above-average stacks to call all-in shoves by short-stacked opponents even with so-so holdings in the hopes of reducing the field by one.

However, as multi-table tournaments grew into the most popular form of poker over the last decade a more sophisticated approach to such a question developed, with the resulting advice often suggesting that in fact it often is not worth it to go out of our way to try to eliminate an opponent, particularly during the early stages but also later on as well.

By "going out of our way" I mean playing a hand in a way that is different than how we would normally play it if not for the prospect of eliminating a player. Say the blinds are 100/200 (no antes yet) and a late-position player shoves for 1,000. It folds to us in the big blind where we have a hand like Qd-7c.

Normally we'd toss such a hand away in the face of a 5x raise without a second thought, but say we have a healthy stack of 7,500 and find ourselves considering whether or not to gamble, with the possibility of knocking out the short-stacked player having entered into our thinking as another factor worth considering.

Now every situation is unique -- perhaps that's Jason Mercier doing the shoving and knocking him out would be an especially positive play in terms of improving our chances of succeeding at the table. Then again, giving Mercier a "courtesy double-up" would be especially bad not just for us but for everyone else, too.

But looking at the situation in a less specific way, calling in such spots is overall a very poor play and should generally be avoided. Mike Caro once made this point by quantifying the reward for eliminating a player and comparing that to what we're risking to make the call. The risk is easy to determine -- in my example, it would be committing 800 more chips to call. The reward of adding 1,300 chips for taking that risk is easy to calculate, too. But what extra reward is there for eliminating an opponent, too?

According to Caro, not much. Especially if we are early in the tournament, but really even later, too. That's because the reward we get for knocking out a player isn't just ours -- it is also shared by everyone else in the tournament!

As Caro points out, "whatever value eliminating this player adds to the expectations of all players, you... will profit only the same as the others will." In other words, if there are 51 players left, you're splitting the "reward" of knocking out your opponent with everyone else -- i.e., you're getting only 1/50th of whatever value that has.

Thus if you weren't normally going to call a 5x raise with Qd-7c, the fact that you might knock out an opponent by doing so shouldn't be encouraging you to act otherwise.

All is situation-dependent, of course, and oftentimes a late-position push by a short stack can indicate an especially wide range that might make calling with an average starting hand correct. But if this isn't a bounty tournament, don't make a marginal call just to try to reduce the field by one, particularly early on. Because while knocking someone out might feel good, the extra benefit for doing so usually doesn't translate into much more value for us.

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Klitschko v Haye: Is it really going to happen this time?

Boxing Betting / Ralph Ellis / 10 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

The two big men

"As we learned when Haye won his title by out manoeuvring the lumbering figure of Nikolai Valuev, behind all the lurid bragging there is a genuine fighter."

They've had a press conference and gone eyeball-to-eyeball but doubt remains as to whether they'll really get down to business, say Ralph Ellis

The contracts are signed, the two fighters have just done their first eyeball to eyeball press conference to promote the contest. The arena is booked for July 2, less than eight weeks away.

And yet still there are more people prepared to bet on David Haye not fighting Wladimir Klitschko than there are on Manchester United not getting the single point they need to be Premier League champions. If anything it underlines the suspicion people have about boxing politics it is that you can still back Wladimir Klitschko to be David Haye's next opponent at anywhere between [1.04] and [1.2].

You can't blame them. Haye has spent nearly three years trying to goad the Ukrainian brothers into the ring, and I for one won't be certain he's got Wladimir to turn up until the first bell goes. There have been so many twists and turns to the saga, so many training injuries that put off other fights or hastened them, so many insults and lurid stunts. It seems every time it's been on, it's immediately been off.

But at last it seems our brash British hero has got his way. He will put his own WBA version of the title at stake in Hamburg on July 2 in search of Wladimir's three belts - the IBF, IBO and WBO versions. It's a reward for all those insults. And guess what? They aren't stopping now.

Haye tried to come up with a line that would make him more appealing to a British public who instinctively don't like his brash boasting. He talked about honouring the memory of the great Sir Henry Cooper, the man who did most to make heavyweight boxing in Britain a mainstream sport.

But it couldn't last. There was a six-minute stare down, ended only when Haye's trainer Adam Booth put a sheaf of paper between them. Then came the accusation that the younger of the Klitschko brothers is no more than a fraud. The 13 fighters put away by Wladimir since his last defeat - to Lamon Brewster in April 2004 - have been, according to Haye, "fat little American puddings who come over here to get a cheque and get beat." For somebody whose last "fight" was the ridiculous strictly come dancing match with Audley Harrison it leaves him open to three words: pot, kettle, black.

But don't be confused. As we learned when Haye won his title by out manoeuvring the lumbering figure of Nikolai Valuev, behind all the lurid bragging there is a genuine fighter. And when the talking stops he has proper talent, meaning Betfair's early markets making him the outsider for the Klitschko contest at [2.6] presents a great opportunity. And Wladimir won't go down easily, so the [12.5] for Haye to win by a decision is even more tempting.

Whichever way you side, there's no doubt the fight will be one of the great betting events - and come to that great sporting events - of the year. Providing, of course, it actually happens!

Five things you might not know about Lamon Brewster
1. Born in an Indianapolis ghetto in June 1973, he was the oldest of four boys. His dad was a boxing fan who owned a pair of gloves he once fought with - but forbade the young Lamon ever to touch them
2. Aged seven he started going to the local gym with an 86-year-old white trainer called Bill Brown who had once sparred with Jack Dempsey
3. His trainer Bill Slayton died through cancer three months before his win over Klitschko. He said he won the fight because he ignored the advice the new guy was giving him
4. He retired in January after an eye injury caused him to lose to Robert Helenius. He claimed the Finnish fighter tampered with his gloves
5. He's now supporting a campaign to prevent cruelty to animals

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Miami Masters Daily Tips: Revved up Karlovic can keep run going

Events / Ben Caudell / 24 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Big Ivo knows how to serve

"I expect this match to be a close-fought battle which has three sets written all over it. Karlovic has the momentum though so he is the selection at [1.63]."

Ben Caudell looks out for winners at the Miami Masters and he's looking to a big server on a big run to do him a big favour

Florian Mayer (GER) v Ivo Karlovic (CRO)
Karlovic managed to squeeze into the Miami Masters main draw at the last minute when a wild card became available on Monday following Thiemo de Bakker's withdrawl from the tournament.

The 6'10" giant was reportedly livid with the tournament organisers after initially not even getting a wild card for due to his world ranking of 153. But it turns out that was a blessing in disguise.

Karlovic starts off this year's event against Germany's Florian Mayer having missed most of the 2010 season with an Achilles problem. His comeback wasn't as successful as he would have hoped until last week at Indian Wells where he turned it all around with wins over David Ferrer, Giles Simon and Albert Montanes, eventually losing at the quarter-final stage to Rafael Nadal in a third set tie-break.

With good form pushing him on and the added motivation of sticking two fingers up at the organisers who snubbed him we can expect good things of Karlovic. He also has a great chance of improving his world ranking back into the realms of the top 50.

The Croat leads their head-to-head series over Mayer 1-0, however this match was played way back in 2006 at the Sunrise Challenger tournament which the Croat took in three sets. Tonight's match will prove to be a tough match-up for Ivo, Mayer is a crafty veteran and a player who can mix all kinds of spin and slices to disrupt the rhythm of play. However, the German lost last week in straight sets to Andrey Golubev 6-2, 6-1 and prior to this to Marin Cilic in a five-set Davis cup match. It is also important to note that Mayer has lost four of his last five matches in the United States, where as Karlovic has won four of his last five.

I expect this match to be a close-fought battle which has three sets written all over it. Karlovic has the momentum though so he is the selection at [1.63].

My best bet however is to back over 23.5 games, Karlovic is a difficult player to break on serve (he has lost serve just four times in his last six matches) of the 11 best of three-set matches he has played so far this year, seven of 13 have been over 23.5 games with an average of 26 games played. The [1.9] on offer in the total games market looks to solid value for me.

Recommended Bets
Back Over 23.5 Games @ [1.9]
Back Ivo Karlovic @ [1.63]

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Gary Speed Big Interview: We'll be going out to beat England

The Big Interview / Gary Speed / 21 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Tough job. Gary Speed looks on during his first match in charge of Wales, a defeat to the Republic of Ireland

"It’s great to have somebody like Gareth (Bale) involved, but it is a team game. If we are going to achieve anything it has to be as a team because we are a country of small resources."

We went out and spoke to former betting.betfair columnist Gary Speed on life without Ryan Giggs, where Gareth Bale ranks amongst the best in the world and gunning for a big scalp on Saturday.

Hi Gary. So three months since you took over and finally a competitive game! Excited, or does it feel like a job now?

Yes, I am excited, but also there's a lot of work gone into those three months. We've had one match, of course, in Ireland and although the result was disappointing, we found out a lot of things off the pitch.

Such as?

We only had one day's training, and five of them couldn't join in because they'd played the day before, but I got good feedback about the squad in terms of togetherness, structure, and how to use time.

So now it's time to make that work against England. It's a perfect first home fixture, isn't it?

I think so. We're realistic in that given our standing in the group after losing the first three matches, even if we win every game we still might not qualify. So the aim is to look ahead to the next campaign, and make sure by the time it starts we are in a place to compete. All the structure and foundations have got to be done and dusted by that time. But meanwhile it's England, at home, and a great opportunity to do something. We'll be going out to win it.

Do you miss the hustle and bustle of club management?

You'd be surprised the amount of work there is in this job. When I took over I felt it was important we set up a structure throughout the whole of Welsh football, from the senior team through the Under 21s and right down, so we are getting some sort of continuity. I've also been getting out to watch a lot of games, to see the players, and also out to their to speak to their managers and coaching staffs on how they do things. When they do come to us it helps understand how to get them in the right shape and frame of mind to perform.

Lots of detail, then?

That's exactly the difference compared to a club job. You have time to drill into every detail. We've watched the DVD of the Ireland game a lot of times, and a lot of analysis gets done on the opposition too. It's a time of the season where a lot of players have played a lot of games, so you can't take too much out of them on the training pitch. It's a case of planning the time to get the best value..

Wales have had problems with big players not being available. What are you doing to help change that?

I think what we learned from the first squad is that players want to come to an international team and find a bit of structure. They want a goal, and something to strive for. That's what we are trying to give them. It's already been encouraging that a couple of lads have returned to be available again in Danny Collins and Danny Gabbidon, so hopefully that will stand us in good stead for the future.

We saw a young lad playing the other night called Giggs who might have a chance!

(laughs) Yes, I've spoken to Ryan and it's not right for him to come back which I completely accept and understand, but he has been very supportive. It's fantastic how well he's doing for United still. I'm realistic in any case that while this game is exciting, the bigger picture is still the next qualifying campaign.

Fabio Capello says Gareth Bale is the best player in the world at the moment. Is he right?

He's not played for a few weeks, so I don't know, but we all saw his performances against Inter Milan, which were unbelievable. But then I've been watching Wales for four or five years and he's been the best player all that time. When he starts playing well for Tottenham on the Champions League stage it is no surprise to me that everybody is talking about him. It's great to have somebody like Gareth involved, but it is a team game. If we are going to achieve anything it has to be as a team because we are a country of small resources.

Who are the younger players you want to work with?

It would be unfair to name names, but part of why I was so keen to take the job is that there is such a lot of talent coming through.

Aaron Ramsey's an obvious example.

Given the injury he had he's come back very quickly. He was outstanding in some of the games I saw him play for Cardiff on loan, and I'm certainly hoping he can be in good shape to face England.

Who have you talked to for advice?

I've spoken to a lot of people: Mark Hughes, Sam Allardyce, Tony Pulis who is a good friend of mine. You take advice from everyone and then decide which way to go yourself. At the end of it you have to make the tough decisions, and you need to know you did what you believed in.

Now the boots are hung up you can finally assess your playing days. What would be your best memory?

I think winning the League with Leeds. It came very early in my career. In a few years of getting in the team I'd won the old Second Division, come fourth in the First and then lifted the title and the Charity Shield. I maybe didn't appreciate it as much as I should.

And your greatest regret?

I don't think I've got one. I can look back on a fabulous time - after the Leeds days there was Newcastle, Bolton and Sheffield United. Newcastle especially was a massive highlight. Kenny Dalglish signed me. He was a hero of mine when I was a kid. They say you shouldn't meet your heroes, it's sometimes a disappointment. Mine were Kenny Dalglish and Ian Botham and I've met them both and they are both great people. I've been very lucky.

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Simon Rowlands: Official going, winning distances and longest SP

Ante-post / Simon Rowlands / 07 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

What will the going be described as on day one?

Our blogger takes a look at three of the Cheltenham Festival Specials markets available on Betfair...

With the Cheltenham Festival approaching fast, various specials markets have started springing up all over the betting industry. Some of these represent little more than 'hit and hope' jobs at this stage, but it is surprising to discover just how far a modest amount of research can take you with the others.

I decided to look at the markets for official going, winning distances and longest SP.

The following is the historical data since 2001, the year in which the meeting was cancelled due to foot and mouth:

The official going market is settled according to the official description of the majority of the ground on the hurdle course prior to the first race of the meeting. In this, it is subject to human interference in both the imperative to achieve a certain outcome ("good jumping ground") and in the possible inclination to believe that that outcome has been achieved, come what may (what might be termed the "mark your own exam paper" phenomenon).

Simon Claisse has been Clerk of The Course at Cheltenham since 2000 and Timeform, using race times as well as other information, has disagreed with his description in four of the last five years.

In other words, it matters little what the ground is, if Mr Claisse states it is "good", or more commonly "good to soft", that is what you will get paid out on. He even changed it from "good to soft" to a more credible "good" halfway through the first day of last year's meeting.

Claisse consults with famed weather forecaster John Kettley in the weeks leading up to the meeting and waters as he sees fit. Current odds of [1.42] on Betfair suggest that Claisse will achieve his goal of describing the ground for the first as "good to soft".

The state of the going - real, rather than imagined - has an impact on many other markets, not least that of winning distances. Wider modelling of margins confirms that they increase as the ground becomes softer, though more gradually than might be supposed.

Gauging the real significance of winning distances at the Cheltenham Festival has been akin to trying to herd cats over the years. Not only has the going varied, but the numbers and types of races have varied, too, as has the means by which the margins themselves are determined.

The meeting went from being a three-day one to a four-day one after the 2004 Festival, and there will be another race - making 27 in all - this year. That race is a two-and-a-half mile novice handicap chase, while the Jewson Chase becomes a non-handicap.

The final column in the spreadsheet takes into account the different means of returning winning margins prior to 2009 and adjusts those margins up to 27 races on a pro-rata basis. It is not that simple, of course, but it is some sort of a guide.

The average of this column is 102, which is close to the midpoint of both the winning distance odds market and the winning distance line market, but the median is just 92.

It seems to me as if a couple of wide-margin years recently (one of which was run on genuinely testing ground) might have skewed people's perception. There is also a tendency for people to bet "high" - to want something to happen, rather than not happen - with these markets.

A sell of the winning distance line at 100 or more and a back of winning distance odds of less than 90 lengths makes appeal unless there seems a good likelihood of conditions turning testing. It should be noted that any abandoned or voided races will be made up at 10 lengths (see rules tab), even though the average winning margin has been just under 4 lengths.

The longest SP winner market is divided into "shorter than 33/1", "longer than 50/1" and in between. Bear in mind that just one instance of a rank outsider will trump everything else, and that, in the absence of that, just one instance of an in-between winner will trump the shorter-priced category. 187 of 209 races (89.5%) have been won by "unders", 21 races (10%) by "in between" and just 1 race (0.5%) by "overs".

If you convert that into probabilities, the implication is that the true odds should, respectively, be something like: [15.0]; [1.23]; and [8.2]. In the last nine years, the in-between category has prevailed eight times and the rank outsiders once.

I am, however, very sceptical that this is representative. A better measure - one which shows the middle category to have been overperforming greatly (and probably randomly) against expectation - is likely to be the average amount of the book taken up by each category in races in which a horse's true chance has been established from the Betfair SP.

This eliminates the so-called favourite-longshot bias and produces expected figures of 93.5% unders, 5.5% in between and 1% overs. The resulting probabilities produce (by my reckoning) estimated likely odds of [1.84] in between; [4.2] overs; and [4.6] unders.

It may seem counter-intuitive, but, with the market as it is, unders looks the best bet. It could be expected to come off only about 22% of the time, and has done so not once recently, but [8.0] is too big if you believe theory and past market expectation rather than potentially misleading evidence.

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Follow The Money: Going with the flow...

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 09 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Can Companero get the best of his hurdling rivals?

"Companero likes this track having won over course and distance twice and with his trainer in good form an improved effort should be in the offing today."

Welcome to Follow The Money where our three selections come from Carlisle and Lingfield.

Our first selection comes in the opening 13:25 race at Lingfield, a maiden over 1m2f when there has been a significant gamble on Scottish Star who has shortened to [3.5] from [8.8]. This James Eustace-trained Colt reappears after a 217 day lay-off looking to improve on two starts as a 2yo in which he showed hints of ability in stronger maidens than this one, both over 7f. He has plenty of winners in his pedigree including his dam who was a winning stayer on the flat and over hurdles. The step up in trip should see him in a better light and the money down suggests a big run is expected.

We go up to Carlisle next and in the 14:05, 2m4f Mares Novice Hurdle we find today's negative in the shape of Along Came Rosie who has eased out to [2.9] from [2.52]. She finally broke her maiden tag when winning over this trip at Newcastle back in November and has since run with credit with a pair of third place finishes. She is the most exposed runner in this line-up with eight hurdles starts to her name so it is questionable how much improvement is left. Although she sets a decent standard on previous form, there are a few in this race who are open to progression and she is taken to find one or two too good again.

We stay at Carlisle for our final selection which comes in the 3m1f Handicap Hurdle at 15:45 and goes by the name of Companero who this morning has been well supported into [7.8] from [12.0]. Although he is now 11 he is lightly raced for his age with this being only his 10th start under rules. He has been very consistent in those starts (both over hurdles and fences) finishing in the top three in eight of those nine, winning five. His last run can be forgiven as it came after a 14 month break in a stronger race than this and it should have blown away any cobwebs. He likes this track having won over course and distance twice and with his trainer in good form an improved effort should be in the offing today.

Recommended Bets:
Back Scottish Star @ [3.5] Lingfield 13:25
Lay Along Came Rosie @ [2.9] Carlisle 14:05
Back Companero @ [7.8] Carlisle 15:45

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