Tipping
/ Adam Brookes / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment
Improving chaser Quinz seeks to continue Philip Hobbs' great record in the Racing Post Chase
"Even though you have to go back to 2000 to find the last novice to succeed (Gloria Victis), Quinz is well worth considering on Saturday, very much the type to win at graded level."
The Cheltenham Festival build-up is well and truly in full swing now, with Saturday's Racing Post Chase at Kempton a mouth-watering precursor of things to come. Timeform's Adam Brookes looks over the field...
Leading trainer Philip Hobbs has won the Grade 3 handicap three times since 1999, most recently with Farmer Jack in 2005, and he has young pretenders Quinz and Mostly Bob entered in the three-mile contest this time, with both looking to hold strong form claims.
The first-named is a very solid jumper, but making the running told last time ultimately told when third behind Time For Rupert. As a result, he is much better judged on his previous run when comfortably dispatching the well-treated Far More Serious in an Ascot handicap. Even though you have to go back to 2000 to find the last novice to succeed (Gloria Victis), Quinz is well worth considering on Saturday, very much the type to win at graded level.
Fairly useful hurdler Mostly Bob has translated his ability to fences and confirmed his fall first time out was unlucky with his two improved performances, most notably when winning with an assured round of jumping at Doncaster last time. It will be intriguing to see if Richard Johnson retains his partnership with either of the two Hobbs horses, as he has won the race four times since the turn of the century.
Just like in the Grand National Trial last week, weight hasn't seemed a burden to runners in the Racing Post Chase, with the aforementioned Farmer Jack, Marlborough and Gungadu all carrying top weight to victory in recent years. The horse that carries the baton this year is Nacarat.
The winner in 2009 and runner-up last year, Nacarat seems as good as ever this season and is actually clear Timeform top rated for this race. Having undergone a breathing operation since his King George fourth, it's likely that the front-running tactics that have stood him in such good stead in the race previously will be employed again, and there's no reason why he won't go very close once more, especially if allowed to dictate his own pace.
Next best in on figures is the consistent Fistral Beach, who was fancied for last year's race before unseating at the second. A horse whose ability should have won him more races than it has, he looked better than ever when successful on his return at Wincanton and will be a big danger if backing that effort up. Any further rain will enhance his chances more, and Paul Nicholls has recently announced that Tony McCoy will take the ride.
Tatenen, like former stablemate Fistral Beach, was another horse to produce a career-best last time, when winning an Ascot handicap chase by 16 lengths, yet it appeared that the strong pace suited him more than his rivals and his overall profile tempers enthusiasm with regards to him following up.
Another with an inconsistent profile is last year's winner, Razor Royale, who, in trying to retain his crown, is attempting a feat that hasn't been achieved since Docklands Express in the early nineties. After two disappointing runs so far this season, it's impossible to know how much ability Razor Royale retains. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has also entered the unreliable Beat The Boys, and Crescent Island, who returned with a bang last time at Wetherby but must avoid the dreaded 'bounce'.
Hey Big Spender is a far better jumper than his recent form figures suggest and confirmed that last time when posting a career-best effort with a win at Warwick. If he jumps like he did last time, he's another who could go close.
Sagalyrique, another fluent jumper who usually finds plenty, seems to have enjoyed the change of scenery since leaving Alan King for Donald McCain, and comes into this on the back of two handicap chase victories. He needs to step up a gear but the fact that those last two efforts were the highest-rated performances of his life bode well.
Of the market principals, the one who actually has to improve most is Bakbenscher, who missed the end of last season through injury, but has made amends so far this year. However, the suspicion remains that, due to his suspect jumping, big-field handicaps may not suit him and it would be a surprise if he were not to find a few too good in a race of this nature.
Finally, Mount Oscar will be the oldest horse in the field if lining up, and veterans can win it, highlighted by Marlborough's triumph in 2004 and Desert Orchid's victory as a sprightly eleven-year-old in 1990, but his lethargic performance under his regular jockey last time doesn't suggest he's in great form.
Recommendation
Back Quinz @ [8.4] in the Racing Post Chase
The Cheltenham Festival build-up is well and truly in full swing now, with Saturday's Racing Post Chase at Kempton a mouth-watering precursor of things to come. Timeform's Adam Brookes looks over the field......
Three jumpers to back this afternoon, all courtesy of Timeform's Free Form Website....
Two win selections and a lay for Sunday's Naas card........
Play Casino & Poker here
