Miami Masters Daily Tips: Revved up Karlovic can keep run going

Events / Ben Caudell / 24 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Big Ivo knows how to serve

"I expect this match to be a close-fought battle which has three sets written all over it. Karlovic has the momentum though so he is the selection at [1.63]."

Ben Caudell looks out for winners at the Miami Masters and he's looking to a big server on a big run to do him a big favour

Florian Mayer (GER) v Ivo Karlovic (CRO)
Karlovic managed to squeeze into the Miami Masters main draw at the last minute when a wild card became available on Monday following Thiemo de Bakker's withdrawl from the tournament.

The 6'10" giant was reportedly livid with the tournament organisers after initially not even getting a wild card for due to his world ranking of 153. But it turns out that was a blessing in disguise.

Karlovic starts off this year's event against Germany's Florian Mayer having missed most of the 2010 season with an Achilles problem. His comeback wasn't as successful as he would have hoped until last week at Indian Wells where he turned it all around with wins over David Ferrer, Giles Simon and Albert Montanes, eventually losing at the quarter-final stage to Rafael Nadal in a third set tie-break.

With good form pushing him on and the added motivation of sticking two fingers up at the organisers who snubbed him we can expect good things of Karlovic. He also has a great chance of improving his world ranking back into the realms of the top 50.

The Croat leads their head-to-head series over Mayer 1-0, however this match was played way back in 2006 at the Sunrise Challenger tournament which the Croat took in three sets. Tonight's match will prove to be a tough match-up for Ivo, Mayer is a crafty veteran and a player who can mix all kinds of spin and slices to disrupt the rhythm of play. However, the German lost last week in straight sets to Andrey Golubev 6-2, 6-1 and prior to this to Marin Cilic in a five-set Davis cup match. It is also important to note that Mayer has lost four of his last five matches in the United States, where as Karlovic has won four of his last five.

I expect this match to be a close-fought battle which has three sets written all over it. Karlovic has the momentum though so he is the selection at [1.63].

My best bet however is to back over 23.5 games, Karlovic is a difficult player to break on serve (he has lost serve just four times in his last six matches) of the 11 best of three-set matches he has played so far this year, seven of 13 have been over 23.5 games with an average of 26 games played. The [1.9] on offer in the total games market looks to solid value for me.

Recommended Bets
Back Over 23.5 Games @ [1.9]
Back Ivo Karlovic @ [1.63]

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PGA Tour Betting: Will Donald be revved up for the Honda Classic?

Three Against The Field / Dan Geraghty / 02 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Luke Donald is in the mood for another win

"There's so much in Luke Donald's favour that I have to take the plunge, he clearly loves the Honda Classic and must be in a great frame of mind."

Dan Geraghty thinks lucky Luke can double up at the Honda Classic, but who are his other bets? You'll just have to read his Three Against the Field column to find out

The big question this week is can we trust Luke Donald to follow up last week's incredible performance? Donald simply looked different class to everyone, including the machine-like Martin Kaymer in the final.

The Englishman is entitled to be tired after such a long week but we must remember that he didn't see the 18th hole even once all week. The fact that Donald has excellent course form here (second in 2008) and is a winner of this tournament (when it was played on a different course, in 2006) makes him a must bet. There's so much in his favour that I have to take the plunge, he clearly loves the Honda Classic and must be in a great frame of mind.

An excellent short game seems to be the order of the day at the Honda and my second selection is another short-hitting 'plodder' who was in good form last week. Brian Gay finished in the top five in Mexico without ever really contending at the very top of the leaderboard. His game is in good shape and despite no course form to speak of should go well again, his is a similar profile to Donald and his price of [60.0] looks very, very nice to me.

I've mentioned that I'm looking to get Alex Prugh onside this year and at [260.0] this week is an ideal opportunity. Prugh made his debut here last year and finished a good 32nd. Despite missing the cut last time out, it's reasonable to expect him to improve on 2010's performance. The 26-year-old has had a reasonable start to the year with three top-25s from six appearances. He was on fire early on last year and now has that little bit of extra experience on his side.

Dangers: Rickie Fowler [30.0] remains a danger; the win cannot be far off. Y E Yang [50.0] is a course winner here (2009) and his game looked in good shape at the Matchplay, he's a nice price. Last years winner Camilo Villegas has really struggled for form this season, however, [75.0] is surely too big a price this week. He is worth chancing. At times this year Trevor Immelman has looked on the way back and the former Augusta winner should contend at a nice price soon. He's available to back at [150.0] this week.

Recommended Bets:
Luke Donald [16.0], Brian Gay [60.0], Alex Prugh [260.0]

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